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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the turnout at the next general election
Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade.
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Good morning.
Once we pass October 31st and the General Election campaign proper begins I think things may turn rather more sour for Johnson. The media machine will be less tilted towards his misinformation machine, as called-out by Peter Oborne. Nigel Farage will also be hitting the airwaves, supported by the execrable Ann Widdecombe. The Brexit Party will make life very uncomfortable for Johnson on the right flank. It's their one, last, chance to set the agenda and they will not hold back.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.
Did you do the "fallacy of the appeal to authority" module?
I mentioned students because that is something that has changed significantly since the 1970s, though it may only be worth a few percentage points.
This expert hasn't taken on board that relevant variables are relevant, and variable, and that their current values are not reflected in historic data.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
My fear is it's a bit too clever by half. They are trying to hit a high speed moving target. Maybe it will work but wargamed clever ruses aren't having a good time of it at the moment. The danger is they hand Johnson a very truncated election campaign where he can promise to get " Brexit done by Christmas " with no intervening period where Johnson's failure to ' do or die ' sinks in. Remembrance season and the NATO summit will help with that.
I don't blame Blackford for that. A Tory majority and Brexit happening suits his political aims very well. I do blame Swinson for gambling that she can cut 10 years off the Lib Dems recovery time without delivering a Tory majority and Brexit.
I suspect it will just result in posturing. " We offered an election last December " as the timetable is very tight and even with Lib Dem/SNP support passage of an Act could be rocky. I've long argued Labour should turn this into a process story by floating alternative election. I think February suits them best. So Swinson/Blackford are at least doing that.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.
I’d cover the double on 65-75%, which is in line with recent elections and the EU referendum.
Others argue that that is now old hat. That there is evidence that being door knocked both incresses your propensity to vote in general and for the party who door knocked you in particular.
Being a miserable old *** I still lean strongly to the former view. Though undoubtedly both the rise of the internet and the death of landlines have changed the nature of targeting and data collection.
There's a lot of ways that this could go wrong, Macron appears to want Brexit done, if no election on Monday, he may offer a two week "final" technical extension to make a final decision.
The president of the French republic is rapidly becoming the dominant force in domestic UK politics. The assumption that 3 months will be granted for more faffing around seems to be dying quickly over the weekend.
In terms of the Lib Dem offer, I read it as knowing the Tories are going to win and they are trying to pickup some of the spoils from a potential Labour collapse.
Your "hideous paralysis" of the last 2 and a half years can also be seen as parliament not letting the conservative government getting away with blue murder.
And that is the reason why she has proposed it. Not because she expects it to happen. But because it applies even more pressure on the Gutless Coward Corbyn who demands elections at his Cult rallies but runs away at every opportunity from actually voting for one.
Ok so the risk is that the proposal ends up passed and Johnson wins big. But that's weeks away - we're literally hours away from once again being told Non and MPs having to revoke to avoid No Deal (which would be hilarious).
Coming back to it all yesterday after a total news blackout is fascinating.
On the one hand nothing much has changed and the situation is broadly as I hoped and expected. It's intriguing how one of the most extraordinary political weeks can be be boiked done to a few key facts that can be digested by a 10 minute googke catch up. No one normal people just scan the news and are happier for it. A 7 day detox really reinforces the Signal and Noise stuff.
On the other hand even just a 7 day break really emphasises that this is Wagnerian stuff in political terms. Books will be written about single weeks in this process in years to come. No wonder it is felling so many careers if just watching on TV is so stressful.
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1188242740301033472?s=20
The tory party isn't some universally venerated national institution like the RNLI, the Gurkhas or the Manic Street Preachers that we are obliged to support. It's the implacable enemy of and object of detestation for about 60% of the population.
Far from guaranteed we'll have a winter election.
F1: need to start the pre-race tosh. Got a few ideas. First of which is to find out if Verstappen got penalised.
Edited extra bit: he did! Bit miffed as one early bet I had in mind was backing the Ferraris to pass him on the first lap.
IIRC that's a somewhat long-winded process.
I suspect Tom Watson now has too much baggage to just pick up the reins as an emergency stopgap.
Now it is possible but unlikely that 60% detest politics or politicians.
I don't find Mr, Mrs, Miss or Ms average are so invested in politics to think of parties in terms of detest, hate, or revile.
Those are the views of the core fanatics, the ones at the extremes and those overly enthused converts to political dogma, Paul Mason comes to mind as an example.
Now it's 1.03, but for those who find it inconceivable we'll crash out in four days' time, 3% isn't a bad return over that period.
The increased number of students with their double registration certainly puts a lower ceiling on turnout but the increased incidence of postal voting works the other way. In some areas people are even good enough to save many voters the bother!
16 years old or over (but you cannot vote until you are 18 years old)"
https://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/elections/register/
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
I don't think a Dec election will happen, but if it does would expect low turnout. Not so much term time, weather or winter sun so much as boredom with politics. I think that is why the turnout fell in the Oct 74 election.
What did for May was the extension with no clear plan.
Boris has positioned himself as being thwarted by the forces of Remania - appealing to the voters for assistance
February is still ok - if it comes about because of Labour games (especially assuming that Parliament jerks around and doesn’t get Brexit done by Jan 31 so we need a further extension)
I wonder who it is?
Or something like that.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
Though we will probably Brexit, I think it unlikely to be a grateful demos afterwards. This survey in the Observer is an interesting one. Even amongst Leavers there is a substantial minority who wished the whole business of the referendum had never happened.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour?__twitter_impression=true
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .
With 25,000 Labour majority, I never see one anyway.
People like you may campaign against it but it’s not the same as “blocking” it because (no offence) you don’t have that power
I would favour granting rights to legal permanent residents regardless of citizenship after 5 years.
Whether it be the courts, MPs, the speaker, the media, the rich etc all want to block Brexit
The Lib Dem Bill is really designed though for the EU , so saying we want an election and one is likely and please give us the longer extension .
So far Macron has been trying to help Johnson but if an election isn’t called and then he says he’s not bringing the WAIB back then I think that’s really going to annoy him and the rest of the EU .
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1188297904051642368?s=19
Betting PostF1: it'll be a short while before I post the pre-race thingummyjig, but the bets I've made are Perez to be winner without the top 6, at 10 (each way, third the odds top 2), and Leclerc to beat Verstappen at 1.72.
(Can I remind you to vote on Oct 5 to save our NHS! Thanks! Bye!)