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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the turnout at the next general election
Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade.
Comments
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But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks? It is the east, and Juliet is the sun.
Good morning.0 -
The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.1
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We used to have cold winters, no cars, no goretex and very, very limited postal voting. Now we don't.0
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Is there not an issue with students being registered twice? As I understand it, the maximum theoretical turnout is now well below 100% (assuming students aren't voting twice!).0
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It's like opinion polls. We used to stand to attention and tell the truth when a bloke with a plummy accent went to the expense of making a *trunk call* all the way from London to ask us about our voting intentions. Now we think What lie shall I tell this c-nt?0
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Is Brexit the big driving factor political pundits think it is?
Once we pass October 31st and the General Election campaign proper begins I think things may turn rather more sour for Johnson. The media machine will be less tilted towards his misinformation machine, as called-out by Peter Oborne. Nigel Farage will also be hitting the airwaves, supported by the execrable Ann Widdecombe. The Brexit Party will make life very uncomfortable for Johnson on the right flank. It's their one, last, chance to set the agenda and they will not hold back.
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Theoretical turnout is always below 100% because of deaths of those on the register. A December election will be using a very fresh register, so the number of deaths and those who have moved house but not re-registered will however be at a low point in the cycle. So maybe 98% possible - before double registering of students is considered?tlg86 said:Is there not an issue with students being registered twice? As I understand it, the maximum theoretical turnout is now well below 100% (assuming students aren't voting twice!).
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It isn't but keep shouting abuse about it, if it makes you feel happier.Ishmael_Z said:The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.1 -
The wish is father to the thought.....Mysticrose said:Is Brexit the big driving factor political pundits think it is?
Once we pass October 31st and the General Election campaign proper begins I think things may turn rather more sour for Johnson. The media machine will be less tilted towards his misinformation machine, as called-out by Peter Oborne. Nigel Farage will also be hitting the airwaves, supported by the execrable Ann Widdecombe. The Brexit Party will make life very uncomfortable for Johnson on the right flank. It's their one, last, chance to set the agenda and they will not hold back.0 -
If you "studied politics" then obviously I have no chance whatever in an argument with you about it.Mysticrose said:
It isn't but keep shouting abuse about it, if it makes you feel happier.Ishmael_Z said:The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.
Did you do the "fallacy of the appeal to authority" module?1 -
Does that partly explain why February 74 had an especially high turnout?MarqueeMark said:
Theoretical turnout is always below 100% because of deaths of those on the register. A December election will be using a very fresh register, so the number of deaths and those who have moved house but not re-registered will however be at a low point in the cycle. So maybe 98% possible - before double registering of students is considered?tlg86 said:Is there not an issue with students being registered twice? As I understand it, the maximum theoretical turnout is now well below 100% (assuming students aren't voting twice!).
I mentioned students because that is something that has changed significantly since the 1970s, though it may only be worth a few percentage points.0 -
Or the "we've had enough of experts" module at the University of Michael Gove?Ishmael_Z said:
If you "studied politics" then obviously I have no chance whatever in an argument with you about it.Mysticrose said:
It isn't but keep shouting abuse about it, if it makes you feel happier.Ishmael_Z said:The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.
Did you do the "fallacy of the appeal to authority" module?0 -
Council by-elections will provide more data on turnout by season. I expect the data can be downloaded by hacking Dominic Cummings' ipad.1
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You rate people as experts cos they've been to a rebadged poly? Low bar.DecrepitJohnL said:
Or the "we've had enough of experts" module at the University of Michael Gove?Ishmael_Z said:
If you "studied politics" then obviously I have no chance whatever in an argument with you about it.Mysticrose said:
It isn't but keep shouting abuse about it, if it makes you feel happier.Ishmael_Z said:The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.
Did you do the "fallacy of the appeal to authority" module?
This expert hasn't taken on board that relevant variables are relevant, and variable, and that their current values are not reflected in historic data.0 -
Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.1 -
I understand where Swinson and Blackford are coming from with their draft Bill and if I shared their assumptions I think it makes sense in a least worst option sort of way.
My fear is it's a bit too clever by half. They are trying to hit a high speed moving target. Maybe it will work but wargamed clever ruses aren't having a good time of it at the moment. The danger is they hand Johnson a very truncated election campaign where he can promise to get " Brexit done by Christmas " with no intervening period where Johnson's failure to ' do or die ' sinks in. Remembrance season and the NATO summit will help with that.
I don't blame Blackford for that. A Tory majority and Brexit happening suits his political aims very well. I do blame Swinson for gambling that she can cut 10 years off the Lib Dems recovery time without delivering a Tory majority and Brexit.
I suspect it will just result in posturing. " We offered an election last December " as the timetable is very tight and even with Lib Dem/SNP support passage of an Act could be rocky. I've long argued Labour should turn this into a process story by floating alternative election. I think February suits them best. So Swinson/Blackford are at least doing that.0 -
I've no idea what is the evidence presented on this module, wherever it was taken, whether a rebadged poly or the home of grade inflation and bad prime ministers that is Oxford.Ishmael_Z said:
You rate people as experts cos they've been to a rebadged poly? Low bar.DecrepitJohnL said:
Or the "we've had enough of experts" module at the University of Michael Gove?Ishmael_Z said:
If you "studied politics" then obviously I have no chance whatever in an argument with you about it.Mysticrose said:
It isn't but keep shouting abuse about it, if it makes you feel happier.Ishmael_Z said:The wilting flower theory that people won't vote cos it's parky out, is bullshit.
I studied politics and you'd be amazed (it seems) how many people a) decide on the day how to vote and b) look outside to see if it's worth going to the polls.
You see the world through the eyes of a political anorak.
Did you do the "fallacy of the appeal to authority" module?
This expert hasn't taken on board that relevant variables are relevant, and variable, and that their current values are not reflected in historic data.0 -
Another factor may have been novelty for students - voting age was lowered to 18 from 21 in 1970.tlg86 said:
Does that partly explain why February 74 had an especially high turnout?MarqueeMark said:
Theoretical turnout is always below 100% because of deaths of those on the register. A December election will be using a very fresh register, so the number of deaths and those who have moved house but not re-registered will however be at a low point in the cycle. So maybe 98% possible - before double registering of students is considered?tlg86 said:Is there not an issue with students being registered twice? As I understand it, the maximum theoretical turnout is now well below 100% (assuming students aren't voting twice!).
I mentioned students because that is something that has changed significantly since the 1970s, though it may only be worth a few percentage points.1 -
Interesting - you think canvassing is about discovering, rather than influencing, voting intentions?MarqueeMark said:Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.0 -
Swinson and Blackford both have mythological problems on this as well. The Coalition and the 1979 VoNC will both be evoked if those two parties help Boris get his Winter Brexit election. If Boris wins and then implements Brexit it will create a new and powerful mythology for Labour activists. Clearly there are no good options left but I did raise bith eyebrows when I saw the report.0
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Despite Blackford having denounced a December election on Ch4 - I suspect the SNP would not be sorry to see a GE out of the way before Salmond’s trial starts dominating the headlines in the New Year.Yellow_Submarine said:I don't blame Blackford for that.
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Given that historically winter elections have actually had high turnouts, surely the moaning is simply that the politicians and activists themselves don’t like going out when it’s cold, dark and wet?
I’d cover the double on 65-75%, which is in line with recent elections and the EU referendum.0 -
Old school theory, certainly from my day, is that canvassing is exclusively about voter ID. So much so you shouldn't even attempt to persuade voters when canvasing as the desire to be polite skews your voter ID. The reason phone canvasing is seen as superior to door knocking is people are ruder and terser when you ring them than when face to face - hence they are more honest and provide better data.Ishmael_Z said:
Interesting - you think canvassing is about discovering, rather than influencing, voting intentions?MarqueeMark said:Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.
Others argue that that is now old hat. That there is evidence that being door knocked both incresses your propensity to vote in general and for the party who door knocked you in particular.
Being a miserable old *** I still lean strongly to the former view. Though undoubtedly both the rise of the internet and the death of landlines have changed the nature of targeting and data collection.1 -
Is the Parliament really playing chicken with France on the extension ?
There's a lot of ways that this could go wrong, Macron appears to want Brexit done, if no election on Monday, he may offer a two week "final" technical extension to make a final decision.
The president of the French republic is rapidly becoming the dominant force in domestic UK politics. The assumption that 3 months will be granted for more faffing around seems to be dying quickly over the weekend.
In terms of the Lib Dem offer, I read it as knowing the Tories are going to win and they are trying to pickup some of the spoils from a potential Labour collapse.0 -
Many many voters thing that the public would be absolutely insane to give the Conservatives an absolute majority, and especialy with Boris Johnson as leader.blueblue said:
The public would have to be absolutely fucking insane to do that - the botch job remainers made by supporting Corbyn "risk-free" in 2017 led directly to the hideous paralysis of the last 2 and a half years, and to the rise of Boris himself.anothernick said:
Correct. If there is an early election the Tories will start off with a big polling lead. Everyone will expect them to win. Then people will start to wonder about whether they really want to give Johnson unfettered power. Is his deal really as good as he says? Can he be trusted? Why does he lie so easily, even about trivial issues? The Lib Dems will say that they could never support Corbyn as PM. And nobody will believe Labour could win a majority, so the risk of Corbyn actually becoming PM is minimal. It will be quite safe for remainers to vote Labour in seats where the Lib Dems have no chance, because it is clear that this will not result in a Corbyn premiership.
Just like 2017. And the result will be similar.
They need to give the Conservatives a clear majority, or face the same stasis for another whole Parliamentary term!
Your "hideous paralysis" of the last 2 and a half years can also be seen as parliament not letting the conservative government getting away with blue murder.
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Morning all! A fair bit of shouting on Twitter about "Tory enabler" Swinson trying to hand Boris "his" election.
And that is the reason why she has proposed it. Not because she expects it to happen. But because it applies even more pressure on the Gutless Coward Corbyn who demands elections at his Cult rallies but runs away at every opportunity from actually voting for one.
Ok so the risk is that the proposal ends up passed and Johnson wins big. But that's weeks away - we're literally hours away from once again being told Non and MPs having to revoke to avoid No Deal (which would be hilarious).0 -
Interesting, but the vast majority of under 21 voters in 1974 were not students.CarlottaVance said:
Another factor may have been novelty for students - voting age was lowered to 18 from 21 in 1970.tlg86 said:
Does that partly explain why February 74 had an especially high turnout?MarqueeMark said:
Theoretical turnout is always below 100% because of deaths of those on the register. A December election will be using a very fresh register, so the number of deaths and those who have moved house but not re-registered will however be at a low point in the cycle. So maybe 98% possible - before double registering of students is considered?tlg86 said:Is there not an issue with students being registered twice? As I understand it, the maximum theoretical turnout is now well below 100% (assuming students aren't voting twice!).
I mentioned students because that is something that has changed significantly since the 1970s, though it may only be worth a few percentage points.
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By-elections, including council by-elections, are a poor way of predicting GE behaviour.DecrepitJohnL said:Council by-elections will provide more data on turnout by season. I expect the data can be downloaded by hacking Dominic Cummings' ipad.
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Omg that’s so funny .Scott_P said:0 -
Through a mixture of a particularly virulent cold and it finally all becoming too much for me I started what turned out to be a 7 day media detox on the morning of the MV. I spent all the time I would normally spend being a media junkie watching old Star Trek instead.
Coming back to it all yesterday after a total news blackout is fascinating.
On the one hand nothing much has changed and the situation is broadly as I hoped and expected. It's intriguing how one of the most extraordinary political weeks can be be boiked done to a few key facts that can be digested by a 10 minute googke catch up. No one normal people just scan the news and are happier for it. A 7 day detox really reinforces the Signal and Noise stuff.
On the other hand even just a 7 day break really emphasises that this is Wagnerian stuff in political terms. Books will be written about single weeks in this process in years to come. No wonder it is felling so many careers if just watching on TV is so stressful.1 -
It probably wouldn't happen again, but what if it did???
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1188242740301033472?s=201 -
Still dark here. Oh the joys of the clocks going back.Mysticrose said:But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks? It is the east, and Juliet is the sun.
Good morning.0 -
I’m sure SLAB (if any of it’s still functioning) would love to return the “worked with the Tories” the SNP monstered them with after SINDYREF - tho in this case it would be “Worked with the Tories again...Yellow_Submarine said:Swinson and Blackford both have mythological problems on this as well. The Coalition and the 1979 VoNC will both be evoked if those two parties help Boris get his Winter Brexit election. If Boris wins and then implements Brexit it will create a new and powerful mythology for Labour activists. Clearly there are no good options left but I did raise bith eyebrows when I saw the report.
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blueblue said:
They need to give the Conservatives a clear majority, or face the same stasis for another whole Parliamentary term!
The tory party isn't some universally venerated national institution like the RNLI, the Gurkhas or the Manic Street Preachers that we are obliged to support. It's the implacable enemy of and object of detestation for about 60% of the population.4 -
Good morning, everyone.
Far from guaranteed we'll have a winter election.
F1: need to start the pre-race tosh. Got a few ideas. First of which is to find out if Verstappen got penalised.
Edited extra bit: he did! Bit miffed as one early bet I had in mind was backing the Ferraris to pass him on the first lap.0 -
Letter in (I think) the Sunday Times which broadly points out that having disliked the results of the 2015 and 2017 Parliaments, Johnson wants a 3rd vote to hopefully this time elect a parliament to his liking. Hoping that the will of the people will change. The will of the people absolutely cannot and has not changed with regards to Brexit where the prospect of a second vote is evil.0
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Four initial thoughts. 1. Voting for the Deal even in abstract terms via the Letwin Amendment and the WAIB 2nd Reading is a psychological rubicon and gateway drug. There must be a non trival chance that a 3 month extension sees the WAIB pass albeit with a huge amount of domestic bolt ons. Hence the Lib Dem/SNP move to grant a pre Brexit election. 2. Macron is just trolling. He's demonstrating the value of membership of a bloc of pooled soveriegnty versus isolationism. He won't veto and impose a No Deal on Ireland. But he will yank our chain in the meantime. 3. I'm astonished any opposition party is considering gifting Johnson a " Christmas Present " " Over by Christmas " framing/slogan for an election where Brexit is unimplemented. 4. Labour's best option is a January campaign and the ' Jacinda Adern ' strategy. It would involve Corbyn going as soon as the extension is secured but with urgency is possible.0
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Well done. A detox is necessary from time to time. By stepping back and letting the dust settle you get to understand more.Yellow_Submarine said:Through a mixture of a particularly virulent cold and it finally all becoming too much for me I started what turned out to be a 7 day media detox on the morning of the MV. I spent all the time I would normally spend being a media junkie watching old Star Trek instead.
Coming back to it all yesterday after a total news blackout is fascinating.
On the one hand nothing much has changed and the situation is broadly as I hoped and expected. It's intriguing how one of the most extraordinary political weeks can be be boiked done to a few key facts that can be digested by a 10 minute googke catch up. No one normal people just scan the news and are happier for it. A 7 day detox really reinforces the Signal and Noise stuff.
On the other hand even just a 7 day break really emphasises that this is Wagnerian stuff in political terms. Books will be written about single weeks in this process in years to come. No wonder it is felling so many careers if just watching on TV is so stressful.0 -
By 'Corbyn going' do you mean standing down and letting someone else become Labour's leader?Yellow_Submarine said:Four initial thoughts. 1. Voting for the Deal even in abstract terms via the Letwin Amendment and the WAIB 2nd Reading is a psychological rubicon and gateway drug. There must be a non trival chance that a 3 month extension sees the WAIB pass albeit with a huge amount of domestic bolt ons. Hence the Lib Dem/SNP move to grant a pre Brexit election. 2. Macron is just trolling. He's demonstrating the value of membership of a bloc of pooled soveriegnty versus isolationism. He won't veto and impose a No Deal on Ireland. But he will yank our chain in the meantime. 3. I'm astonished any opposition party is considering gifting Johnson a " Christmas Present " " Over by Christmas " framing/slogan for an election where Brexit is unimplemented. 4. Labour's best option is a January campaign and the ' Jacinda Adern ' strategy. It would involve Corbyn going as soon as the extension is secured but with urgency is possible.
IIRC that's a somewhat long-winded process.
I suspect Tom Watson now has too much baggage to just pick up the reins as an emergency stopgap.
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Dura_Ace said:blueblue said:
They need to give the Conservatives a clear majority, or face the same stasis for another whole Parliamentary term!
The tory party isn't some universally venerated national institution like the RNLI, the Gurkhas or the Manic Street Preachers that we are obliged to support. It's the implacable enemy of and object of detestation for about 60% of the population.
Now it is possible but unlikely that 60% detest politics or politicians.
I don't find Mr, Mrs, Miss or Ms average are so invested in politics to think of parties in terms of detest, hate, or revile.
Those are the views of the core fanatics, the ones at the extremes and those overly enthused converts to political dogma, Paul Mason comes to mind as an example.0 -
Tokyo this afternoon: lots of nervous looking Welsh and Seeth Efrikan fans, lots of hungover, very proud England fans, lots of Kiwis looking to sell their tickets for the final. It's a great atmosphere. There's no edge anywhere. But that's because it's only rugby ;-)1
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The NEC would take over, and they take their orders from the stalinists - imagine Len McClusky being the efffective Labour leader. And then its a straight fight between Wrong-Daily and Laura Pillock to become the new anointed oneOldKingCole said:
By 'Corbyn going' do you mean standing down and letting someone else become Labour's leader?Yellow_Submarine said:Four initial thoughts. 1. Voting for the Deal even in abstract terms via the Letwin Amendment and the WAIB 2nd Reading is a psychological rubicon and gateway drug. There must be a non trival chance that a 3 month extension sees the WAIB pass albeit with a huge amount of domestic bolt ons. Hence the Lib Dem/SNP move to grant a pre Brexit election. 2. Macron is just trolling. He's demonstrating the value of membership of a bloc of pooled soveriegnty versus isolationism. He won't veto and impose a No Deal on Ireland. But he will yank our chain in the meantime. 3. I'm astonished any opposition party is considering gifting Johnson a " Christmas Present " " Over by Christmas " framing/slogan for an election where Brexit is unimplemented. 4. Labour's best option is a January campaign and the ' Jacinda Adern ' strategy. It would involve Corbyn going as soon as the extension is secured but with urgency is possible.
IIRC that's a somewhat long-winded process.
I suspect Tom Watson now has too much baggage to just pick up the reins as an emergency stopgap.0 -
It seems remarkable that 1.05 was still available last night for a No bet on Betfair Exchange's "UK to leave the EU on/before 31/10/2019?"
Now it's 1.03, but for those who find it inconceivable we'll crash out in four days' time, 3% isn't a bad return over that period.0 -
I'm tempted by the 70-75% band. Cummings won the referendum by getting a lot of traditional non voters to vote through a clever social media campaign. I am sure that he will be using the same tricks again to save their vote this time. Just as February 74 had the "who runs Britain" argument I think that Brexit has the potential to squeeze a few more voters out.
The increased number of students with their double registration certainly puts a lower ceiling on turnout but the increased incidence of postal voting works the other way. In some areas people are even good enough to save many voters the bother!0 -
Yep, three places for not backing off enough passing yellow flags. He did lift off but still set a purple sector.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Far from guaranteed we'll have a winter election.
F1: need to start the pre-race tosh. Got a few ideas. First of which is to find out if Verstappen got penalised
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I'm on at 44 that we will leave on 31st (but only for a couple of quid). There's definitely a non-zero chance that, with everybody thinking only of the games they're trying to play, something unexpected happens and we leave unintentionally. It could even be a row within the EU nations unable to agree on an extension in time.Chris said:It seems remarkable that 1.05 was still available last night for a No bet on Betfair Exchange's "UK to leave the EU on/before 31/10/2019?"
Now it's 1.03, but for those who find it inconceivable we'll crash out in four days' time, 3% isn't a bad return over that period.0 -
There so many unicorns there, you must be a professional breeder.Yellow_Submarine said:Four initial thoughts. 1. Voting for the Deal even in abstract terms via the Letwin Amendment and the WAIB 2nd Reading is a psychological rubicon and gateway drug. There must be a non trival chance that a 3 month extension sees the WAIB pass albeit with a huge amount of domestic bolt ons. Hence the Lib Dem/SNP move to grant a pre Brexit election. 2. Macron is just trolling. He's demonstrating the value of membership of a bloc of pooled soveriegnty versus isolationism. He won't veto and impose a No Deal on Ireland. But he will yank our chain in the meantime. 3. I'm astonished any opposition party is considering gifting Johnson a " Christmas Present " " Over by Christmas " framing/slogan for an election where Brexit is unimplemented. 4. Labour's best option is a January campaign and the ' Jacinda Adern ' strategy. It would involve Corbyn going as soon as the extension is secured but with urgency is possible.
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You know you want to extend your trip and buy one of those tickets from a disappointed Kiwi, dont you?SouthamObserver said:Tokyo this afternoon: lots of nervous looking Welsh and Seeth Efrikan fans, lots of hungover, very proud England fans, lots of Kiwis looking to sell their tickets for the final. It's a great atmosphere. There's no edge anywhere. But that's because it's only rugby ;-)
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None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:0 -
It’s impossible to add that age group on by December .Scott_P said:0 -
Given Labour are in the extinction position they are for colluding and helping the Tories since 2012, it is unlikely to resonate with the people of Scotland. They are done for and it looks like the Tories will be joining them soon.CarlottaVance said:
I’m sure SLAB (if any of it’s still functioning) would love to return the “worked with the Tories” the SNP monstered them with after SINDYREF - tho in this case it would be “Worked with the Tories again...Yellow_Submarine said:Swinson and Blackford both have mythological problems on this as well. The Coalition and the 1979 VoNC will both be evoked if those two parties help Boris get his Winter Brexit election. If Boris wins and then implements Brexit it will create a new and powerful mythology for Labour activists. Clearly there are no good options left but I did raise bith eyebrows when I saw the report.
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"You can register to vote if you are:RochdalePioneers said:
None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:
16 years old or over (but you cannot vote until you are 18 years old)"
https://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/elections/register/0 -
It is standard view in Scotland my friend, they are seen as the nasty evil barstewards that they are.philiph said:Dura_Ace said:blueblue said:
They need to give the Conservatives a clear majority, or face the same stasis for another whole Parliamentary term!
The tory party isn't some universally venerated national institution like the RNLI, the Gurkhas or the Manic Street Preachers that we are obliged to support. It's the implacable enemy of and object of detestation for about 60% of the population.
Now it is possible but unlikely that 60% detest politics or politicians.
I don't find Mr, Mrs, Miss or Ms average are so invested in politics to think of parties in terms of detest, hate, or revile.
Those are the views of the core fanatics, the ones at the extremes and those overly enthused converts to political dogma, Paul Mason comes to mind as an example.0 -
Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=210 -
It's fair enough to say there's a non-zero chance until they've made a firm offer and we've said yes, but it's so strongly in everyone's interest that we don't crash out that I think 5% was far too high, and I think 3% is too.Sandpit said:
I'm on at 44 that we will leave on 31st (but only for a couple of quid). There's definitely a non-zero chance that, with everybody thinking only of the games they're trying to play, something unexpected happens and we leave unintentionally. It could even be a row within the EU nations unable to agree on an extension in time.Chris said:It seems remarkable that 1.05 was still available last night for a No bet on Betfair Exchange's "UK to leave the EU on/before 31/10/2019?"
Now it's 1.03, but for those who find it inconceivable we'll crash out in four days' time, 3% isn't a bad return over that period.0 -
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The other group that has changed significantly since Feb 74 is the snowbirds. Seasonal retired migrants to the Costas and in the case of Leicester to Gujerat, are far more numerous. I think the numbers higher in Feb than Dec, but not insignificant even then.DavidL said:I'm tempted by the 70-75% band. Cummings won the referendum by getting a lot of traditional non voters to vote through a clever social media campaign. I am sure that he will be using the same tricks again to save their vote this time. Just as February 74 had the "who runs Britain" argument I think that Brexit has the potential to squeeze a few more voters out.
The increased number of students with their double registration certainly puts a lower ceiling on turnout but the increased incidence of postal voting works the other way. In some areas people are even good enough to save many voters the bother!
I don't think a Dec election will happen, but if it does would expect low turnout. Not so much term time, weather or winter sun so much as boredom with politics. I think that is why the turnout fell in the Oct 74 election.0 -
16 and 17 year olds are registered.RochdalePioneers said:
None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:0 -
Does that mean he wants to bring back hunting too?Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=210 -
It's nuts to fiddle with the franchise as a Parliamentary tactic.1
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In Scotland you are registered from the age of 14.0
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I don’t think the the Oct 31 thing is the problem people think.Yellow_Submarine said:I understand where Swinson and Blackford are coming from with their draft Bill and if I shared their assumptions I think it makes sense in a least worst option sort of way.
My fear is it's a bit too clever by half. They are trying to hit a high speed moving target. Maybe it will work but wargamed clever ruses aren't having a good time of it at the moment. The danger is they hand Johnson a very truncated election campaign where he can promise to get " Brexit done by Christmas " with no intervening period where Johnson's failure to ' do or die ' sinks in. Remembrance season and the NATO summit will help with that.
I don't blame Blackford for that. A Tory majority and Brexit happening suits his political aims very well. I do blame Swinson for gambling that she can cut 10 years off the Lib Dems recovery time without delivering a Tory majority and Brexit.
I suspect it will just result in posturing. " We offered an election last December " as the timetable is very tight and even with Lib Dem/SNP support passage of an Act could be rocky. I've long argued Labour should turn this into a process story by floating alternative election. I think February suits them best. So Swinson/Blackford are at least doing that.
What did for May was the extension with no clear plan.
Boris has positioned himself as being thwarted by the forces of Remania - appealing to the voters for assistance
February is still ok - if it comes about because of Labour games (especially assuming that Parliament jerks around and doesn’t get Brexit done by Jan 31 so we need a further extension)
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My understanding (although not an activist) was all about reinforcing voters intention - hence you don’t canvass strong voters for other parties as well as identifying targets for the GOTV campaignIshmael_Z said:
Interesting - you think canvassing is about discovering, rather than influencing, voting intentions?MarqueeMark said:Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.0 -
But the snowbirds can postal vote these days and seem to do so. I hope we can test this one way or another but decisions are not a specialised subject for this Parliament.Foxy said:
The other group that has changed significantly since Feb 74 is the snowbirds. Seasonal retired migrants to the Costas and in the case of Leicester to Gujerat, are far more numerous. I think the numbers higher in Feb than Dec, but not insignificant even then.DavidL said:I'm tempted by the 70-75% band. Cummings won the referendum by getting a lot of traditional non voters to vote through a clever social media campaign. I am sure that he will be using the same tricks again to save their vote this time. Just as February 74 had the "who runs Britain" argument I think that Brexit has the potential to squeeze a few more voters out.
The increased number of students with their double registration certainly puts a lower ceiling on turnout but the increased incidence of postal voting works the other way. In some areas people are even good enough to save many voters the bother!
I don't think a Dec election will happen, but if it does would expect low turnout. Not so much term time, weather or winter sun so much as boredom with politics. I think that is why the turnout fell in the Oct 74 election.0 -
16 year old Grandson 2 will be down there to register. Another Remain vote, although as he's in Sevenoaks it might not make a lot of difference.Chris said:
"You can register to vote if you are:RochdalePioneers said:
None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:
16 years old or over (but you cannot vote until you are 18 years old)"
https://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/elections/register/0 -
Who is the "powerful backer"? And where does he want to hound us Remainers to? Some Leavers' inner fascist seems to be becoming a bit less inner right now.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=210 -
We Remainers have a "Powerful backer"?? No one told me.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
I wonder who it is?0 -
Can we have the same shot every other Dec 10? Otherwise it’s subject to sampling error and bias 😆SouthamObserver said:It probably wouldn't happen again, but what if it did???
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1188242740301033472?s=201 -
Although I am precisely the kind of “Remainiac” Carswell wants hounded out of the country, I don’t think it is reasonable to change the franchise all of a sudden.0
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I thought it was Leave who had the mysterious 'powerful backers', due to concerns over forthcoming changes to disclosure of financial interest requirements.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Who is the "powerful backer"? And where does he want to hound us Remainers to? Some Leavers' inner fascist seems to be becoming a bit less inner right now.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
Or something like that.0 -
The thing is, December isn't really winter, but January really is. There is a non-zero probability anywhere, and an alarmingly high one in Scotland, of weather severe enough to decimate turnout in a Jan election to the extent that, morally speaking, you'd want a revote. (@SouthamObserver's tweet has made me rethink my "worrying about the weather is for wusses" position).Yellow_Submarine said:Four initial thoughts. 1. Voting for the Deal even in abstract terms via the Letwin Amendment and the WAIB 2nd Reading is a psychological rubicon and gateway drug. There must be a non trival chance that a 3 month extension sees the WAIB pass albeit with a huge amount of domestic bolt ons. Hence the Lib Dem/SNP move to grant a pre Brexit election. 2. Macron is just trolling. He's demonstrating the value of membership of a bloc of pooled soveriegnty versus isolationism. He won't veto and impose a No Deal on Ireland. But he will yank our chain in the meantime. 3. I'm astonished any opposition party is considering gifting Johnson a " Christmas Present " " Over by Christmas " framing/slogan for an election where Brexit is unimplemented. 4. Labour's best option is a January campaign and the ' Jacinda Adern ' strategy. It would involve Corbyn going as soon as the extension is secured but with urgency is possible.
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That was my question - doesn’t it open up for a court case in that a new 16 year old not on the register already has been deprived of their vote unfairly?RochdalePioneers said:
None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:0 -
Whenever I need a laugh I go back and read old Brexit prospectus. This one from Carswells old mate is particularly good.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
Though we will probably Brexit, I think it unlikely to be a grateful demos afterwards. This survey in the Observer is an interesting one. Even amongst Leavers there is a substantial minority who wished the whole business of the referendum had never happened.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour?__twitter_impression=true0 -
I don’t see the Lib Dem bill going anywhere because Labour will try and amend it .
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .
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I'm puzzled as to why voters would answer the door. Why waste even seconds on someone who is not interested in your opinions, only wanting to lie to you.
With 25,000 Labour majority, I never see one anyway.0 -
I read it as Brexit blockers - in Parliament - not people who don’t like BrexitGardenwalker said:Although I am precisely the kind of “Remainiac” Carswell wants hounded out of the country, I don’t think it is reasonable to change the franchise all of a sudden.
People like you may campaign against it but it’s not the same as “blocking” it because (no offence) you don’t have that power0 -
And Rep of Ireland.nico67 said:I don’t see the Lib Dem bill going anywhere because Labour will try and amend it .
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .0 -
The silly thing is that we allow Commonwealth citizens to vote, no matter how long they have been here. This includes Rwanda and Mozambique with no historical ties to the UK, but not EU citizens who may have been here decades.nico67 said:I don’t see the Lib Dem bill going anywhere because Labour will try and amend it .
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .
I would favour granting rights to legal permanent residents regardless of citizenship after 5 years.1 -
The establishment.Beibheirli_C said:
We Remainers have a "Powerful backer"?? No one told me.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
I wonder who it is?
Whether it be the courts, MPs, the speaker, the media, the rich etc all want to block Brexit0 -
Hannan's piece reads quite reasonable to me, except for the fact that Remainer May being in power dragged out the period of shock at Brexit until she was replaced. As soon as we had a Leaver as PM terms were indeed easily enough.Foxy said:
Whenever I need a laugh I go back and read old Brexit prospectus. This one from Carswells old mate is particularly good.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
Though we will probably Brexit, I think it unlikely to be a grateful demos afterwards. This survey in the Observer is an interesting one. Even amongst Leavers there is a substantial minority who wished the whole business of the referendum had never happened.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour?__twitter_impression=true0 -
Fine. I think Boris should accept it, because few them would vote anyway.Alistair said:
16 and 17 year olds are registered.RochdalePioneers said:
None of whom are on the electoral register and very very few of whom would be able to be added that quicklyScott_P said:0 -
Yes thanks for that . I think trying to amend a bill with all sorts of things is simply a way of Labour avoiding an election .OldKingCole said:
And Rep of Ireland.nico67 said:I don’t see the Lib Dem bill going anywhere because Labour will try and amend it .
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .
The Lib Dem Bill is really designed though for the EU , so saying we want an election and one is likely and please give us the longer extension .
So far Macron has been trying to help Johnson but if an election isn’t called and then he says he’s not bringing the WAIB back then I think that’s really going to annoy him and the rest of the EU .
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Bourgeois democracy needs to be swept aside for the world king! Now where did I leave my enabling Act?nunuone said:
The establishment.Beibheirli_C said:
We Remainers have a "Powerful backer"?? No one told me.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
I wonder who it is?
Whether it be the courts, MPs, the speaker, the media, the rich etc all want to block Brexit0 -
Isn't there a new set of EU financial regulations which come into effect on Jan 1st and are supposed to be 'detrimental' to some prominent people in UK?0
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On a lighter note, Star Wars fans eagerly awaiting the next extravaganza may enjoy this little precis:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1188297904051642368?s=190 -
Dr. Foxy, *cough* yeah, crazy that we give different rights to foreigners based on where they're from...2
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I think unless you have an unusually large amount of canvassing resources, it's just about determining voting intention and getting on to the next door as quickly as possible.Charles said:
My understanding (although not an activist) was all about reinforcing voters intention - hence you don’t canvass strong voters for other parties as well as identifying targets for the GOTV campaignIshmael_Z said:
Interesting - you think canvassing is about discovering, rather than influencing, voting intentions?MarqueeMark said:Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.0 -
You really mean "as soon as we had a PM prepared to bend any law, sideline Parliament and break up the UK, terms were agreed easily enough"?Philip_Thompson said:Hannan's piece reads quite reasonable to me, except for the fact that Remainer May being in power dragged out the period of shock at Brexit until she was replaced. As soon as we had a Leaver as PM terms were indeed easily enough.
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Oooo yes! I will have to see when that one hits the cinemasFoxy said:On a lighter note, Star Wars fans eagerly awaiting the next extravaganza ....
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Er... When are you expecting Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands to follow us out of the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Hannan's piece reads quite reasonable to me, except for the fact that Remainer May being in power dragged out the period of shock at Brexit until she was replaced. As soon as we had a Leaver as PM terms were indeed easily enough.Foxy said:
Whenever I need a laugh I go back and read old Brexit prospectus. This one from Carswells old mate is particularly good.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
Though we will probably Brexit, I think it unlikely to be a grateful demos afterwards. This survey in the Observer is an interesting one. Even amongst Leavers there is a substantial minority who wished the whole business of the referendum had never happened.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour?__twitter_impression=true0 -
But we need to think of the future too. Rwanda and Mozambique will be on the list for when we get our Empire back after Brexit. The Queen will be the Queen Empress, just as Victoria was. And strangely enough Jacob Rees-Mogg is strongly in the running to be Viceroy of Rwanda.Foxy said:
The silly thing is that we allow Commonwealth citizens to vote, no matter how long they have been here. This includes Rwanda and Mozambique with no historical ties to the UK, but not EU citizens who may have been here decades.nico67 said:I don’t see the Lib Dem bill going anywhere because Labour will try and amend it .
And then if the SNP and Lib Dems don’t back the Amendments will use it against them .
There’s a conversation to be had over 16 and 17 year olds , on the issue of EU nationals voting this is far more complicated .
No EU country allows anyone but nationals of that country to vote in elections , there are just a few exceptions in the UK regarding nationals from Cyprus and Malta .0 -
They will be the ones specifically excluded in the WA by Johnson.OldKingCole said:Isn't there a new set of EU financial regulations which come into effect on Jan 1st and are supposed to be 'detrimental' to some prominent people in UK?
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Betting Post
F1: it'll be a short while before I post the pre-race thingummyjig, but the bets I've made are Perez to be winner without the top 6, at 10 (each way, third the odds top 2), and Leclerc to beat Verstappen at 1.72.0 -
I am not sure Putin is that 'mysterious' tbf.OldKingCole said:
I thought it was Leave who had the mysterious 'powerful backers', due to concerns over forthcoming changes to disclosure of financial interest requirements.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Who is the "powerful backer"? And where does he want to hound us Remainers to? Some Leavers' inner fascist seems to be becoming a bit less inner right now.Gardenwalker said:Douglas Carswell is having a breakdown.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1188093636027793409?s=21
Or something like that.0 -
No - it’s been debunked multiple times. It’s a myth propagated by people who want to demonise Brexiteers as shady international financiers. I wonder what they are implying/assuming?OldKingCole said:Isn't there a new set of EU financial regulations which come into effect on Jan 1st and are supposed to be 'detrimental' to some prominent people in UK?
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Yes - but repeat calling / reminding there is an election will reinforce intentionChris said:
I think unless you have an unusually large amount of canvassing resources, it's just about determining voting intention and getting on to the next door as quickly as possible.Charles said:
My understanding (although not an activist) was all about reinforcing voters intention - hence you don’t canvass strong voters for other parties as well as identifying targets for the GOTV campaignIshmael_Z said:
Interesting - you think canvassing is about discovering, rather than influencing, voting intentions?MarqueeMark said:Getting people out to vote in winter is rather different to making contact with the voters to know how they will vote. Most people won't answer the door after dark, so you won't get to talk to people at work other than at weekends. Some are also squeamish about door-knocking on Sundays for religious reasons.
You could end up with a much smaller canvass than in say May - so a greater range of uncertainty on polling day itself.
Parties with a big phone-banking operation will be at an advantage. Good for LibDems, bad for Brexit Party.
I suppose only the political parties have data as to whether canvassing alters anything, and they have good reasons to keep the answer to themselves.
(Can I remind you to vote on Oct 5 to save our NHS! Thanks! Bye!)0
