politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes: No EP2014 poll boost for either Nigel or Nick follo
Fieldwork for the poll took place during the day of and the day after the second debate and it would appear to have had no noticeable effect on people’s voting intentions. Very similar proportions said they would vote for both UKIP and the Liberal Democrats before and after the debates.
Comments
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So the two major parties that didn't partake in the debate, get a boost.
I know, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc and all.
But still, amusing none the less.0 -
You couldn't make it up, and they were supposed to be the losers here.
TheScreamingEagles said:So the two major parties that didn't partake in the debate, get a boost.
I know, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc and all.
But still, amusing none the less.0 -
Surprising, given the publicity that the second debate got, that UKIP aren't up and the LDs down. I'd go as far as to say astonishing0
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Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.0
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So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.0
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You leave that nice lady alone.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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Someone has been sending some interesting tweets from the official DCMS twitter account about Maria Miller, they've been deleted, but ouch.0
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Another EP poll due out at 10p.0
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If it doesn't show a Tory lead you might as well not post the results and put in the file labelled "Squirrel - To be ignored" .MikeSmithson said:Another EP poll due out at 10p.
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Which pollster is that one from?MikeSmithson said:Another EP poll due out at 10p.
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My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.0 -
I've backed West Ham to win.compouter2 said:
The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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As long as they bajo the Tories I will be happy.MonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.0 -
Pfffft....Inbreds nailed on 4-0.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've backed West Ham to win.compouter2 said:
The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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FPT
JonathanJonathan said:
My word this is spectacularly dull. £545 a year lost for families earning £30k equals £45pcm. Chuck in a VAT, fuel costs and everything else and you are comfortably down in that range.GeoffM said:
Or that you pulled a random number out of your arse.Jonathan said:
A question of semantics. Any reduction of an allowance, credit, threshold or anything that increases the flow of money to George Osborne's is a much a tax increase as a rate change. That ultimately matters more politically than semantics, especially when real terms tax cut can be prioritised for the ultra rich.HurstLlama said:
Alas, Mr. J. I don't think you actually had any figures to back-up your original claim of £50- £100 pcm worse off. because of tax increases. I think it best left at that.
You have clearly done much better, well done you.
I don't think there is any need for you to worry about the IFS 'cost of living' figures.
Once Ed Balls is in No 11, all Labour will do is advise families to borrow back the money they have lost.
We'll all be happy again.0 -
Stewart Downing to cross the ball for Andy Carroll to score the winner for West Ham, you read it here first.compouter2 said:
Pfffft....Inbreds nailed on 4-0.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've backed West Ham to win.compouter2 said:
The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.Pulpstar said:Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.
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The final surge by UKIP collapsed the Labour vote to 15%. The Tories were barely affected.compouter2 said:
As long as they bajo the Tories I will be happy.MonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
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That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
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Here are those tweets from the DCMS official twitter account. Poor Maria Miller
DCMS account may have been hacked, of course, but it could just be a cool thought experiment:
twitter.com/StigAbell/status/4525199770869022730 -
Mr. SeniorMarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
There is a time and place for accurate statistics.
The intent of Moniker's post was to convey a figurative not literal truth.0 -
You're ignoring the Guardian ICM poll which had Lab on 24% and UKIP on 10% which was approx 2 weeks before the Euros.MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
There was a Populus poll* also that had labour 19% ahead, a week fortnight earlier
(I'm doing a thread on whether phone polls, and polls in general under estimate UKIP)
*They were a phone pollster then.0 -
You are being generous , it was an outright falsehood ie a lie .AveryLP said:
Mr. SeniorMarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
There is a time and place for accurate statistics.
The intent of Moniker's post was to convey a figurative not literal truth.
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I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/0 -
Yawn. Another night and another poll, and still peddling the same boring trolling meme on here.compouter2 said:
If it doesn't show a Tory lead you might as well not post the results and put in the file labelled "Squirrel - To be ignored" .MikeSmithson said:Another EP poll due out at 10p.
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Mark, why spoil the PBTories lovely dreams ? Or, do you think they were making it up ?MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 170 -
Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .MonikerDiCanio said:
I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/
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Malcolm G (previous thread) Actually a report last year said inequality was at its lowest for 25 years, not that in my view equality is the key measure of national success
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/jul/10/income-gap-narrowest-margin-25-years0 -
On topic, it looks like the debates have simply reinforced EU views rather than changing them0
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And the Greek economy is clearly outperforming the UK's.MarkSenior said:
Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .MonikerDiCanio said:
I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/
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The ComRes data tables are up
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_People_European_Parliament_Voting_Intention_Poll_20G7H.pdf0 -
[updated]
UNS
Lab 26 (+13)
UKIP 25 (+12)
Con 15 (-11)
LD 1 (-10)
Grn 0 (-2)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)0 -
You have been caught out spouting falsehoods , simply put up your hand and admit it . If you look at the polls from prior to the 2009 Euros , apart from the 2 ICM polls which were way out , all the parties INCLUDING UKIP were usually overstated .MonikerDiCanio said:
And the Greek economy is clearly outperforming the UK's.MarkSenior said:
Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .MonikerDiCanio said:
I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/0 -
From what I inderstand there's a very different picture in the second poll of the night - due out at 10pm0
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"UPDATE: There are crossbreaks on the tables for before and after the debates – I would urge extreme caution into reading too much into this and going off with the idea that the debate had this or that effect.TheScreamingEagles said:The ComRes data tables are up
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_People_European_Parliament_Voting_Intention_Poll_20G7H.pdf
One the political make up of the early and late parts of the sample are different (pre-debate had more 2010 Tory voters), VI from the two halves of the sample are based on only around 300 and 450 people so big margins of error, and more importantly dividing at 8pm is too soon. In any event it’s not just the people who watch directly, it’s the media coverage afterwards."
UKIP were not prompted0 -
Bit weird. The clock does not reflect British Summer time until you sign in and then it jumps forward an hour.
On topic I have yet to meet a single person who watched these debates. I have had a few conversations about the media reports of the debates but no one had actually watched. What is that point Mike keeps making about the EU?0 -
Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
chortleStuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%
it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.0 -
We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.Alanbrooke said:
chortleStuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%
it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.0 -
SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK0
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7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
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Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.Stuart_Dickson said:
We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.Alanbrooke said:
chortleStuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%
it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.0 -
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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Alan, you do know that the BNP are on your side, not ours.Alanbrooke said:
Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.Stuart_Dickson said:
We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.Alanbrooke said:
chortleStuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%
it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.
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If UKIP come top in the UK and FN come top in France in the Euro elections shockwaves will reverberate across the EU!0
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Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?0 -
We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.DavidL said:
That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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No difference in my book arseholes are arseholes and they play off each other. Hoots.Stuart_Dickson said:
Alan, you do know that the BNP are on your side, not ours.Alanbrooke said:
Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.Stuart_Dickson said:
We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.Alanbrooke said:
chortleStuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%
it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.0 -
Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.Alanbrooke said:
Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.
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So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?Stuart_Dickson said:
We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.DavidL said:
That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?
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It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.Stuart_Dickson said:
Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.Alanbrooke said:
Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.0 -
It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.DavidL said:
So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?Stuart_Dickson said:
We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.DavidL said:
That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?
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The "poll" you quite obviously don't believe either?Stuart_Dickson said:
It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.DavidL said:
So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?Stuart_Dickson said:
We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.DavidL said:
That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?
0 -
They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.Alanbrooke said:
Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.Stuart_Dickson said:
Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.Alanbrooke said:
Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.
0 -
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
0 -
Yes but this is a single poll . Get another few months the same and you might have a point.Stuart_Dickson said:
They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.Alanbrooke said:
Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.Stuart_Dickson said:
Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.Alanbrooke said:
Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.0 -
Polling is not a religion David. I don't believe or disbelieve. I use any and all fragments of information I can gather. Some weigh more heavily than others.DavidL said:
The "poll" you quite obviously don't believe either?Stuart_Dickson said:
It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.DavidL said:
So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?Stuart_Dickson said:
We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.DavidL said:
That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?Stuart_Dickson said:
Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.DavidL said:
7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?
Funnily enough, the info I rely most on I almost never share here at PB.0 -
It is a single poll, but it could be part of a pattern. Or it might not. Either way, it is worth noting.Alanbrooke said:
Yes but this is a single poll . Get another few months the same and you might have a point.Stuart_Dickson said:
They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.Alanbrooke said:
Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.Stuart_Dickson said:
Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.Alanbrooke said:
Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.Stuart_Dickson said:
Yes, I had noticed that.HYUFD said:SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK
The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.
How long can Ruth Davidson last?
Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.
0 -
When it comes to lies and distortion you are the master. But the truth will always out in the end.MarkSenior said:
Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
SD Probably until the Euro elections as this rate.
Meanwhile, the Daily Mail has found the fish that looks like John Prescott
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2597681/Amazing-pictures-fish-looks-bizarrely-similar-former-Labour-politician-John-Prescott.html0 -
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Just a flying visit to confirm the pre-race piece will be up tomorrow. I might watch the qualifying highlights, on in a few minutes on BBC2. A few cars are out of place so there might be some decent bets possible, but I'll have to wait and see.0 -
As you are the king of distortion , sub samples and lies , I can never be in your class .Stuart_Dickson said:
When it comes to lies and distortion you are the master. But the truth will always out in the end.MarkSenior said:
Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
0 -
When you started attributing importance to them beyond their statistical value .Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling?SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
0 -
Re. poll: Broken, sleazy Others on the slide 0
-
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.0 -
When it is sub-sample No. 649 showing the Scottish Lib Dems sub-10% then it is important.MarkSenior said:
When you started attributing importance to them beyond their statistical value .Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling?SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)0 -
The Arse poll has half that sample size StuartStuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
0 -
I agree .Stuart_Dickson said:Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
I am a dick.0 -
Jack + his ego = sample size of 2BobaFett said:
The Arse poll has half that sample size StuartStuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.
0 -
I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.Stuart_Dickson said:
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
0 -
Yet another lie and yet another distortion. Your work is never done.MarkSenior said:
I agree .Stuart_Dickson said:Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
I am a dick.
0 -
Ramping??Alanbrooke said:
I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.Stuart_Dickson said:
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
You've got me confused with Mark Senior.
0 -
Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ramping??Alanbrooke said:
I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.Stuart_Dickson said:
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
You've got me confused with Mark Senior.0 -
That was an in-joke too far. You'll have to explain what you are talking about.Alanbrooke said:
I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.
0 -
Now I'm innumerate? That is just daft. Give it a rest.Alanbrooke said:
Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ramping??Alanbrooke said:
I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.Stuart_Dickson said:
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
You've got me confused with Mark Senior.
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Erewah Conservatives select Maggie Throup (Colne Valley 2005, Solihull 2010) to replace retiring Jessica Lee. Majority to be defended: 5.2%
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Stuart, it's a slow Saturday night so why don't you tell me something interesting. How's you're son and is he bilingual ?Stuart_Dickson said:
That was an in-joke too far. You'll have to explain what you are talking about.Alanbrooke said:
I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
Yeah why not. How's the business going ?Stuart_Dickson said:
Now I'm innumerate? That is just daft. Give it a rest.Alanbrooke said:
Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ramping??Alanbrooke said:
I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.Stuart_Dickson said:
If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.Stuart_Dickson said:
OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".Alanbrooke said:
But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.Stuart_Dickson said:
When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.SquareRoot said:
Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.MarkSenior said:
Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .Stuart_Dickson said:
It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.MarkSenior said:
Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%Stuart_Dickson said:Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
Grn 4% (-3)
If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.
I feel your pain.
If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.
I feel your pain.
You've got me confused with Mark Senior.0 -
I stand corrected. Apologies.Stuart_Dickson said:
Jack + his ego = sample size of 2BobaFett said:
The Arse poll has half that sample size StuartStuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.
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That's the first time I've seen and Osbornite admit to being wrong on this blog.BobaFett said:
I stand corrected. Apologies.Stuart_Dickson said:
Jack + his ego = sample size of 2BobaFett said:
The Arse poll has half that sample size StuartStuart_Dickson said:
That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.Alanbrooke said:Alex salmond is totally mad.
latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.
Sample size : 2
100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."
I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.0 -
Well, I can hardly pretend to be surprised by this poll.0
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The chart is "an average of all polls conducted in each week".MarkSenior said:
Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .MonikerDiCanio said:
I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/
Before 14/5/2009 polls showed UKIP under 10%, and Labour over 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
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FPT
@malcolmg
You claimed that most of RBS's bail out came from the Fed. The link you posted stated than £52.5bn came from the Fed, £75bn from the UK credit scheme and another £35bn from another UK scheme. Not including the UK equity injection scheme and the loan guarantee scheme.
Your original statement was inaccurate.
As for our strategists, they are not "my freeloading friends". They are smart people, who do a difficult job well, and we pay them well for doing it. I've known them for a long time, but staff turnover, especially at a senior level, is a bad thing for a company.0 -
I think malcolm likes to stretch the truth a bit for dramatic effect, I've seen it a few times now. Typically the claim is not that far from being true, but of course it sounds a lot better to say 'most of' rather than 'a lot of' etc.Charles said:FPT
@malcolmg
You claimed that most of RBS's bail out came from the Fed. The link you posted stated than £52.5bn came from the Fed, £75bn from the UK credit scheme and another £35bn from another UK scheme. Not including the UK equity injection scheme and the loan guarantee scheme.
Your original statement was inaccurate.
As for our strategists, they are not "my freeloading friends". They are smart people, who do a difficult job well, and we pay them well for doing it. I've known them for a long time, but staff turnover, especially at a senior level, is a bad thing for a company.0 -
The original claim was that 2 weeks before the 2009 election UKIP were 15 points adrift of Labour and overtook them in the run in . That is incorrect . You are correct that on the 10th May and earlier ( 3 plus weeks prior to the election ) UKIP were 10% or less . Clearly there was a significant change around the 10th to 13th May which saw a boost in UKIP ( and also Green support ) . After the 14th polls with the exception of ICM as stated were generally slightly overstating UKIP support compared to the actual result .anotherDave said:
The chart is "an average of all polls conducted in each week".MarkSenior said:
Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .MonikerDiCanio said:
I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;MarkSenior said:
That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 electionMonikerDiCanio said:
From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".compouter2 said:So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.
Beware.
Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/
Before 14/5/2009 polls showed UKIP under 10%, and Labour over 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
I am sure that by going back to the news reports of that time you will find what was the primary cause of the VI change
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