politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes: No EP2014 poll boost for either Nigel or Nick follo

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes: No EP2014 poll boost for either Nigel or Nick following the TV debates

Fieldwork for the poll took place during the day of and the day after the second debate and it would appear to have had no noticeable effect on people’s voting intentions. Very similar proportions said they would vote for both UKIP and the Liberal Democrats before and after the debates.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

So the two major parties that didn't partake in the debate, get a boost.

I know, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc and all.

But still, amusing none the less.

fitalass

You couldn't make it up, and they were supposed to be the losers here.

TheScreamingEagles said:

So the two major parties that didn't partake in the debate, get a boost.

I know, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc and all.

But still, amusing none the less.

isam

Surprising, given the publicity that the second debate got, that UKIP aren't up and the LDs down. I'd go as far as to say astonishing

Pulpstar

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

compouter2

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

compouter2

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

You leave that nice lady alone.

TheScreamingEagles

Someone has been sending some interesting tweets from the official DCMS twitter account about Maria Miller, they've been deleted, but ouch.

MikeSmithson

Another EP poll due out at 10p.

compouter2

MikeSmithson said:

Another EP poll due out at 10p.

If it doesn't show a Tory lead you might as well not post the results and put in the file labelled "Squirrel - To be ignored" .

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

Another EP poll due out at 10p.

Which pollster is that one from?

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.

compouter2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.

The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.

MonikerDiCanio

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

TheScreamingEagles

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.

The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.

I've backed West Ham to win.

compouter2

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".
Beware.

As long as they bajo the Tories I will be happy.

compouter2

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.

The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.

I've backed West Ham to win.

Pfffft....Inbreds nailed on 4-0.

AveryLP

FPT

Jonathan said:

GeoffM said:

Jonathan said:

HurstLlama said:

Alas, Mr. J. I don't think you actually had any figures to back-up your original claim of £50- £100 pcm worse off. because of tax increases. I think it best left at that.

A question of semantics. Any reduction of an allowance, credit, threshold or anything that increases the flow of money to George Osborne's is a much a tax increase as a rate change. That ultimately matters more politically than semantics, especially when real terms tax cut can be prioritised for the ultra rich.

Or that you pulled a random number out of your arse.

My word this is spectacularly dull. £545 a year lost for families earning £30k equals £45pcm. Chuck in a VAT, fuel costs and everything else and you are comfortably down in that range.

You have clearly done much better, well done you.

Jonathan

I don't think there is any need for you to worry about the IFS 'cost of living' figures.

Once Ed Balls is in No 11, all Labour will do is advise families to borrow back the money they have lost.

We'll all be happy again.

TheScreamingEagles

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Nice profit on the national, need Maria Miller who is in running favourite to hack up now.

My Grand National began with Battle Group refusing to run.

The starter stopped the National the first time round because Battle Group didn't start. Don't know why he stopped it the second time around as Battle Group had started the race. Seeing you backed it maybe it is a bad omen for the Inbreds playing at West Ham......I hope.

I've backed West Ham to win.

Pfffft....Inbreds nailed on 4-0.

Stewart Downing to cross the ball for Andy Carroll to score the winner for West Ham, you read it here first.

MonikerDiCanio

compouter2 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".
Beware.

As long as they bajo the Tories I will be happy.

The final surge by UKIP collapsed the Labour vote to 15%. The Tories were barely affected.

MarkSenior

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

TheScreamingEagles

Here are those tweets from the DCMS official twitter account. Poor Maria Miller

DCMS account may have been hacked, of course, but it could just be a cool thought experiment:

twitter.com/StigAbell/status/452519977086902273

AveryLP

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

Mr. Senior

There is a time and place for accurate statistics.

The intent of Moniker's post was to convey a figurative not literal truth.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

You're ignoring the Guardian ICM poll which had Lab on 24% and UKIP on 10% which was approx 2 weeks before the Euros.

There was a Populus poll* also that had labour 19% ahead, a week fortnight earlier

(I'm doing a thread on whether phone polls, and polls in general under estimate UKIP)

*They were a phone pollster then.

MarkSenior

AveryLP said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

Mr. Senior

There is a time and place for accurate statistics.

The intent of Moniker's post was to convey a figurative not literal truth.

You are being generous , it was an outright falsehood ie a lie .

MonikerDiCanio

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

fitalass

Yawn. Another night and another poll, and still peddling the same boring trolling meme on here.

compouter2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

Another EP poll due out at 10p.

If it doesn't show a Tory lead you might as well not post the results and put in the file labelled "Squirrel - To be ignored" .

surbiton

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

Mark, why spoil the PBTories lovely dreams ? Or, do you think they were making it up ?

MarkSenior

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .

HYUFD

Malcolm G (previous thread) Actually a report last year said inequality was at its lowest for 25 years, not that in my view equality is the key measure of national success
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/jul/10/income-gap-narrowest-margin-25-years

HYUFD

On topic, it looks like the debates have simply reinforced EU views rather than changing them

MonikerDiCanio

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .

And the Greek economy is clearly outperforming the UK's.

TheScreamingEagles

The ComRes data tables are up

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_People_European_Parliament_Voting_Intention_Poll_20G7H.pdf

RodCrosby

[updated]

UNS

Lab 26 (+13)
UKIP 25 (+12)
Con 15 (-11)
LD 1 (-10)
Grn 0 (-2)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)

MarkSenior

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .

And the Greek economy is clearly outperforming the UK's.

You have been caught out spouting falsehoods , simply put up your hand and admit it . If you look at the polls from prior to the 2009 Euros , apart from the 2 ICM polls which were way out , all the parties INCLUDING UKIP were usually overstated .

MikeSmithson

From what I inderstand there's a very different picture in the second poll of the night - due out at 10pm

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ComRes data tables are up

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_People_European_Parliament_Voting_Intention_Poll_20G7H.pdf

"UPDATE: There are crossbreaks on the tables for before and after the debates – I would urge extreme caution into reading too much into this and going off with the idea that the debate had this or that effect.

One the political make up of the early and late parts of the sample are different (pre-debate had more 2010 Tory voters), VI from the two halves of the sample are based on only around 300 and 450 people so big margins of error, and more importantly dividing at 8pm is too soon. In any event it’s not just the people who watch directly, it’s the media coverage afterwards."


UKIP were not prompted

DavidL

Bit weird. The clock does not reflect British Summer time until you sign in and then it jumps forward an hour.

On topic I have yet to meet a single person who watched these debates. I have had a few conversations about the media reports of the debates but no one had actually watched. What is that point Mike keeps making about the EU?

Stuart_Dickson

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%

chortle

it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%

chortle

it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.

We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.

HYUFD

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Stuart_Dickson

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

Stuart_Dickson

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%

chortle

it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.

We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.

Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%

chortle

it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.

We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.

Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.

Alan, you do know that the BNP are on your side, not ours.

HYUFD

If UKIP come top in the UK and FN come top in France in the Euro elections shockwaves will reverberate across the EU!

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

SNP 44%
Lab 26%
UKIP 8%
Con 7%
LD 6%
BNP 5%
Grn 4%

chortle

it's as credible as the one's showing them on 30%.

We'll soon see who is chortling and who is not.

Sure Stuart I'll take your poll at face value. So SNP plus BNP means one out of every two Scots is into strutting his sporran and goosestepping up Princes Street. Strange fked up nation.

Alan, you do know that the BNP are on your side, not ours.

No difference in my book arseholes are arseholes and they play off each other. Hoots.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.

Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.

So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?

Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?

Stuart_Dickson

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.

Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.

Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.

So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?

Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?

It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.

So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?

Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?

It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.

The "poll" you quite obviously don't believe either?

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.

Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.

Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.

They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.

SquareRoot

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.

Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.

Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.

They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.

Yes but this is a single poll . Get another few months the same and you might have a point.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

7%? Fancy a bet as to whether the Scottish tories get more or less than 14% of the vote in the Euros?

Ho ho. If the Scottish Tories are happy with 14% then it is fine by me.

That will be a no then. What about the SNP getting less than 40%?

We'd be delighted with 39%, and over the moon with 40%+.

So this "catastrophic" sub sample. You are not willing to bet that the tories will get at least twice what they are recorded at and that SNP at least 4% less?

Maybe the word catastrophic was a little OTT?

It was the *poll* which was catastrophioc for Ruth Davidson's outfit. We have yet to see if the actual result will be.

The "poll" you quite obviously don't believe either?

Polling is not a religion David. I don't believe or disbelieve. I use any and all fragments of information I can gather. Some weigh more heavily than others.

Funnily enough, the info I rely most on I almost never share here at PB.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HYUFD said:

SD Add the UKIP and Tory totals together and you get roughly what the Scottish Tories polled at the last general election, again emphasising the Tory need to regain voters lost to UKIP across the UK

Yes, I had noticed that.

The one place the Tories simply cannot afford to lose votes to UKIP is in Scotland. They are already at horrifically low levels there.

How long can Ruth Davidson last?

Err aren't PB nats always tellings UKIP has no support in Scotland ? What's changed apart from the alcohol levels in your bloodstream ? Do tell.

Perhaps nothing has changed. Perhaps something has. Either way, it is fine by supporters of self government.

Tis only a silly wee poll Alan. Cool yer jets.

Precisely Stuart and you're experienced enough to know that subsamples with high MOE are pretty meaningless. So making daft claims is simply running yourself down or having a bit of sport. So we can all pile in and have our sport too.

They are not "pretty meaningless" at all. If the sub-samples from a variety of pollsters are followed over several years they function as excellent early warning systems. Sub-samples have saved me a fortune over the years.

Yes but this is a single poll . Get another few months the same and you might have a point.

It is a single poll, but it could be part of a pattern. Or it might not. Either way, it is worth noting.

Stuart_Dickson

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .

When it comes to lies and distortion you are the master. But the truth will always out in the end.

Alanbrooke

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

HYUFD

SD Probably until the Euro elections as this rate.

Meanwhile, the Daily Mail has found the fish that looks like John Prescott
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2597681/Amazing-pictures-fish-looks-bizarrely-similar-former-Labour-politician-John-Prescott.html

Stuart_Dickson

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Just a flying visit to confirm the pre-race piece will be up tomorrow. I might watch the qualifying highlights, on in a few minutes on BBC2. A few cars are out of place so there might be some decent bets possible, but I'll have to wait and see.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Mathematics is as much a stranger to you as the truth .

When it comes to lies and distortion you are the master. But the truth will always out in the end.

As you are the king of distortion , sub samples and lies , I can never be in your class .

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling?

When you started attributing importance to them beyond their statistical value .

Sunil_Prasannan

Re. poll: Broken, sleazy Others on the slide

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

Stuart_Dickson

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI
(+/- change from Euro 2009)

SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling?

When you started attributing importance to them beyond their statistical value .

When it is sub-sample No. 649 showing the Scottish Lib Dems sub-10% then it is important.

BobaFett

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

The Arse poll has half that sample size Stuart

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

I am a dick.

I agree .

Stuart_Dickson

BobaFett said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

The Arse poll has half that sample size Stuart

Jack + his ego = sample size of 2

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.

Stuart_Dickson

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

I am a dick.

I agree .

Yet another lie and yet another distortion. Your work is never done.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.

Ramping??

You've got me confused with Mark Senior.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.

Ramping??

You've got me confused with Mark Senior.

Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.

That was an in-joke too far. You'll have to explain what you are talking about.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.

Ramping??

You've got me confused with Mark Senior.

Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.

Now I'm innumerate? That is just daft. Give it a rest.

AndreaParma_82

Erewah Conservatives select Maggie Throup (Colne Valley 2005, Solihull 2010) to replace retiring Jessica Lee. Majority to be defended: 5.2%

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

I borrowed it from Wings over Scotland.

That was an in-joke too far. You'll have to explain what you are talking about.

Stuart, it's a slow Saturday night so why don't you tell me something interesting. How's you're son and is he bilingual ?

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SquareRoot said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Catastrophic poll for the Scottish Tories.

ComRes - Scottish sub-sample (188 respondents) - Euro VI

Grn 4% (-3)

Only 64 voters in the VI sample , MofE around 13%

It was 188 respondents Mark. Just as we always report the overall number of respondents.

Not when you are calculating MofE , well Mathematicians do not though you might .

It is part of you campaign to mislead readers. Keep telling your porkies Mark. Very soon the facts will be known and you'll do one of your usual disappearing acts.

Stuart, your original comment on a subsample was a straightforward troll. You knew full well it had about as much value as dog faeces.

When did reporting statistical poll findings equate with trolling? Posters do it all the time around here.

But to be fair they also get laughed at on here frequently when it's obvious polltroll stuff.

OK, so if the Lib-Cons are doing badly it is a "polltroll".

If Lab or SNP are doing badly they are fragments of wisdom.

I feel your pain.

Yeah you're putting the dick in Dickson with that one since I've never said anything of the sort. I've already pointed out to you that subsample polls showing the Tories in the 30s are equally meaningless.

If you employ the straw man ploy it is witty and astute.

If I employ the straw man ploy I am a dick.

I feel your pain.

I can't help your name, however I can help your maths and ramping stuff off subsamples is simply daft. But you know this.

Ramping??

You've got me confused with Mark Senior.

Don't be silly, Mark's numerate.

Now I'm innumerate? That is just daft. Give it a rest.

Yeah why not. How's the business going ?

BobaFett

Stuart_Dickson said:

BobaFett said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

The Arse poll has half that sample size Stuart

Jack + his ego = sample size of 2

I stand corrected. Apologies.

Alanbrooke

BobaFett said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

BobaFett said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Alex salmond is totally mad.

latest poll shows voters think Salmond has lost the plot and should be locked up for his own safety.

Sample size : 2

100% agree with statement "Salmond is more of a fruitcake and loony than any kipper."

I'm going to track this over the next 12 weeks if there's a trend I'll let you know and you can adjust your betting position.

That methodology sounds strangely familiar. Watch out or Jack W will be requesting royalties.

The Arse poll has half that sample size Stuart

Jack + his ego = sample size of 2

I stand corrected. Apologies.

That's the first time I've seen and Osbornite admit to being wrong on this blog.

AlastairMeeks

Well, I can hardly pretend to be surprised by this poll.

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .

The chart is "an average of all polls conducted in each week".

Before 14/5/2009 polls showed UKIP under 10%, and Labour over 20%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

Charles

FPT

@malcolmg

You claimed that most of RBS's bail out came from the Fed. The link you posted stated than £52.5bn came from the Fed, £75bn from the UK credit scheme and another £35bn from another UK scheme. Not including the UK equity injection scheme and the loan guarantee scheme.

Your original statement was inaccurate.

As for our strategists, they are not "my freeloading friends". They are smart people, who do a difficult job well, and we pay them well for doing it. I've known them for a long time, but staff turnover, especially at a senior level, is a bad thing for a company.

RobD

Charles said:

FPT

@malcolmg

You claimed that most of RBS's bail out came from the Fed. The link you posted stated than £52.5bn came from the Fed, £75bn from the UK credit scheme and another £35bn from another UK scheme. Not including the UK equity injection scheme and the loan guarantee scheme.

Your original statement was inaccurate.

As for our strategists, they are not "my freeloading friends". They are smart people, who do a difficult job well, and we pay them well for doing it. I've known them for a long time, but staff turnover, especially at a senior level, is a bad thing for a company.

I think malcolm likes to stretch the truth a bit for dramatic effect, I've seen it a few times now. Typically the claim is not that far from being true, but of course it sounds a lot better to say 'most of' rather than 'a lot of' etc.

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

compouter2 said:

So this is the poll we will soon be seeing a crossover.....ah, I see.

From 2009, "Ukip were 15 points behind Labour two weeks before the election, but surged past them as polling day approached, and pipped them to second place on the day.".

Beware.

That is simply false . Polls 2 weeks before the 2009 election

Yougov/Sun Lab 19 UKIP 19
BPIX/Mail On Sunday Lab 17 UKIP 17

I refer you to Chart 2 in the below link;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

Chart 2 is false , it is distorted ( probably deliberately to make the article appear believable ) by one clearly rogue poll by ICM on 21/05/2009 which was out of line with all other polls before and after it . Go back to the original sources on say UKpollingreport .

The chart is "an average of all polls conducted in each week".

Before 14/5/2009 polls showed UKIP under 10%, and Labour over 20%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

The original claim was that 2 weeks before the 2009 election UKIP were 15 points adrift of Labour and overtook them in the run in . That is incorrect . You are correct that on the 10th May and earlier ( 3 plus weeks prior to the election ) UKIP were 10% or less . Clearly there was a significant change around the 10th to 13th May which saw a boost in UKIP ( and also Green support ) . After the 14th polls with the exception of ICM as stated were generally slightly overstating UKIP support compared to the actual result .
I am sure that by going back to the news reports of that time you will find what was the primary cause of the VI change