The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.
Not yet he hasn't. He's done well, politically, he's achieved something that, good or bad, I and many others did not think he would or could, but it ain't over til the fat lady sings
Boris has done well to play the ERG by pretending to be a despotic No Dealer. They are still lapping it up.
On the Deal itself, he basically signed up the offer the EU made in 2017. The EU can hardly believe their luck.
All of which may be true, but that would be a remarkable political achievement regardless of whether it is a good thing or not.
If they cannot withdraw then abstaining is just silly. It may not be displaying indicative support as Letwin claims it is, but letting the motion be defeated robs them of momentum.
I am presuming the plan is the EU will say Non to more dicking around...tell us to have another "think" next week, otherwise no deal exit.
Interesting to see HUYFD post a series of Survation polling tweets which show that the public are rather less frothingly fascist than HYUFD spends half his time claiming they are.
To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that
“We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”
So Grieve’s amendment way back insisted Parliament had a meaningful vote on a deal. We have a deal. It’s in “danger” of passing the meaningful vote, so up pops Letwin to make that vote meaningless.
If they cannot withdraw then abstaining is just silly. It may not be displaying indicative support as Letwin claims it is, but letting the motion be defeated robs them of momentum.
I am presuming the plan is the EU will say Non to more dicking around...tell us to have another "think" next week, otherwise no deal exit.
Perhaps - no positive decision means no 'reason' for an extension request so come back with a decision. But the EU hate being put on the spot like that.
The problem is, it depends on what you think is most important. If you prize sovereignty and the ability to tell people you never voted for to go take a running jump, then Brexit sounds like a good idea. It means, for example, in future the EU will be unable to impose arbitrary and disastrous export bans on our agricultural produce via ludicrous rulings by the ECJ that have never quite shaken off allegations of corruption to cover up a massive public health emergency in France (one that has still 25 years later only been partially admitted to). It also means we will not have to explain how a man removed as PM of Luxembourg after he was caught using the security services to rig elections, who is a notorious drunk, who appoints his cronies to key positions they are totally unfit to hold and has never seen a tax evasion scheme he didn’t like is fit to be the chief executive officer of the EU.
If, however, you think that sovereignty is illusory due to the nature of globalisation and therefore it makes sense to pool our sovereignty in bigger blocs to gain maximum economic and social advantage, while benefitting further from freer travel and greater international co-operation on security and trans-national problems then Brexit is of course the second worst plan of the 21st century (allowing that the Hundred is still the worst).
The problem is the two worldviews are so completely at variance they cannot relate to each other. Both sides think the other one is so profoundly wrong that there is no point in arguing - both see the other side as the equivalent of flat earthers.
Your conversation with Richard rather neatly summed up this dichotomy. He explained his view with an example, and you ignored his view and seized on the example, telling him just to ignore laws he didn’t like. In the meanwhile, he cannot understand why you think it’s not important to have control of our laws because he wants to change rather than ignore laws he doesn’t agree with.
And because of this, we are where we are.
This is a good summary of the two positions. I am a practical person, sovereignty to me is just a meaningless abstract concept until you can illustrate how it provides real power to make changes to my life that actually affect it in a meaningful way. So if your best example of the sovereignty benefits of Brexit is that you can feed your pet chicken scraps from your kitchen then I make no apologies for ignoring your claims that this sovereignty is so great. As you say, different worldviews. Perhaps we should partition the country, so we can all live our lives as we want to without pissing on each others' chips. I get to stay a European citizen with all the rights that entails, while the Brexiteers and their chickens get to enjoy their sovereignty.
If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.
And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
Anyone using language like that is completely unfit to hold office.
Hadn't you heard, HYUFD is one of those posters that never resorts to abusive language.
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.
I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
You appear to have a short memory and a generous forgiving manner to a PM with no integrity.
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that
“We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”
So Grieve’s amendment way back insisted Parliament had a meaningful vote on a deal. We have a deal. It’s in “danger” of passing the meaningful vote, so up pops Letwin to make that vote meaningless.
Beyond parody. Beyond contempt.
While Letwin himself may have good intentions and concerns about legislation given the specific timeframes we have left rather than being opposed to just a MV if there was not a worry over no deal, it is at the very least strange for Grieve to write it so that a MV was what was needed and then decide that a MV was not sufficient.
Interesting to see HUYFD post a series of Survation polling tweets which show that the public are rather less frothingly fascist than HYUFD spends half his time claiming they are.
Survation shows clearly the public prefers the Boris Deal to both Remain and No Deal.
If they cannot withdraw then abstaining is just silly. It may not be displaying indicative support as Letwin claims it is, but letting the motion be defeated robs them of momentum.
Is there time for Letwin to redraft is amendment to make it clearer that it isn't a wrecking amendment ?
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
Deja vu. When May failed to carry the DUP she turned to Labour votes. Boris is attempting the same manoeuvre.
Yes, but the passage of times means he should get closer at least.
He will win easily. There are about 20 Labour turncoats.
To carry through all the votes needed for the legislation? All the detail that will emerge will not lose some of those votes?
I think he has a good shot now, the estimates about most of the ERG and most of the independent conservatives look pretty reasonable now, but if it were that easy for him now I don't think the Letwin amendment would be regarded as needed by those who do not trust him.
Looking at Survation, the big Tory lead is in the South. North, Labour is doing worse than before but still leads. Midlands, Labour is just 2% behind. In London, LD leads but this can be a tactical battleground.
Looks like the Tories will make big gains in the North and London from Labour then, the Tories will hold their ground in the Midlands and South and the LDs will make big gains from the Tories and Labour in London
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
3) Deal passes by one, with Jeremy Corbyn not turning up.
We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.
I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
You appear to have a short memory and a generous forgiving manner to a PM with no integrity.
This is a bigger issue than Boris
Not sure Boris would agree. The situation has been thoroughly manipulated to meet Boris’ personal objectives. By all means go along with it.
Mr. P, it's bizarre the EU is seen as a sacred protector of rights and the UK as prone to slashing them when UK maternity leave, for example, is immensely more generous than the EU average.
Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.
A particularly fatuous post from you there.
Nicomar asked last night for reasons for supporting Brexit and I gave a long and I hope reasonable response. When asked for ways in which it personally impacted me I gave one example. I could give more and have in the past including ending the destruction of archaeological sites wrought by the CAP (I am an archaeologist) or the idiocy of single colour fire extinguishers which has been discussed with our resident fire fighter on here before. I can keep coming up with examples and you can keep ignoring them or trivialising them. But the point is that in thousands of small ways the EU impacts our lives in ways I believe are detrimental and underpinned by a basic flaw in the democratic process as long as we remain in the EU.
That to me is more than enough reason to want Brexit.
These all seem pretty small beer compared to the economic costs of putting up trade barriers to a trade bloc that we conduct 45% of our trade with and removing our right to live, work or retire in 27 other countries. I admire your optimism that outside the EU you will face no annoying rules and regulations that you will have little ability to change. In fact we will continue to follow EU rules in many instances because industry will demand it, and you will have gone from a small ability to change those rules to zero ability. (As hominem ignored).
We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.
I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
You appear to have a short memory and a generous forgiving manner to a PM with no integrity.
This is a bigger issue than Boris
Not sure Boris would agree. The situation has been thoroughly manipulated to meet Boris’ personal objectives. By all means go along with it.
For my part I will remember.
It absolutely is bigger than Boris, even though the situation has been manipulated to meet his personal objectives, it's silly to even suggest it is not bigger than that. It may not be sufficient to support what he is proposing regardless, but that decision is still based on things bigger than Boris being a shit.
We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.
I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
You appear to have a short memory and a generous forgiving manner to a PM with no integrity.
This is a bigger issue than Boris
Not sure Boris would agree. The situation has been thoroughly manipulated to meet Boris’ personal objectives. By all means go along with it.
For my part I will remember.
It absolutely is bigger than Boris, even though the situation has been manipulated to meet his personal objectives, it's silly to even suggest it is not bigger than that. It may not be sufficient to support what he is proposing regardless, but that decision is still based on things bigger than Boris being a shit.
Problem is you cannot trust a word the man says. There is no reliable information on which to back a decision.
To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that
“We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”
So Grieve’s amendment way back insisted Parliament had a meaningful vote on a deal. We have a deal. It’s in “danger” of passing the meaningful vote, so up pops Letwin to make that vote meaningless.
Beyond parody. Beyond contempt.
While Letwin himself may have good intentions and concerns about legislation given the specific timeframes we have left rather than being opposed to just a MV if there was not a worry over no deal, it is at the very least strange for Grieve to write it so that a MV was what was needed and then decide that a MV was not sufficient.
Quite. Meanwhile Joe Public won’t give a stuff about amending substantive motions or MV 4, or whatever. They’ll just see a load of suits with plums in their mouths being too clever by half and can kicking again.
the ECJ that have never quite shaken off allegations of corruption to cover up a massive public health emergency in France (one that has still 25 years later only been partially admitted to).
It is clear the way the wind of public opinion is going...stop dicking around and get it f##king done. Those that expose doing so are going to benefit.
I've been surprised at just how many (soft Remainer) friends have texted me to say this.
If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.
And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest
Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
Why are you so angry? Your side is winning.
If you were Boris, you would be being magnanimous, embracing everyone with a big smile, not threatening war against the enemy. Come on. Follow your leader.
Actually I think HYUFD's anger is prescient. Winning Brexit is going to be a very painful experience for Brexiteers. When previously the public blamed the EU for all their problems, now they will be blaming Brexit. Even the ones who voted for it.
I’m not really convinced by this. Nobody will notice Brexit, except those - largely in the metropolitan elite - who see various investments and funds trickle away to Amsterdam and Frankfurt (edit: and perhaps Belfast, heh).
Scholars will note (they already do) the downward track of Britain’s economic path, but the man on the street will be too busy watching “Love Island 2025”.
if they can still afford a TV and sky subscriptions
the ECJ that have never quite shaken off allegations of corruption to cover up a massive public health emergency in France (one that has still 25 years later only been partially admitted to).
Missed that one.....what was it?
The 25 years puts in approximately when a contaminated blood scandal was revealed.
Former Prime Minister, Social Affairs Minister and health Minister all found themselves in the dock.
This meaning of this Letwin thing is beyond me. Should I be finding a good movie to watch instead?
If Letwin passed and then if Parliament votes for the deal it's not meaningful and Parliament is with holding its consent despite nominally voting for the deal. Boris will still have to send the surrender letter.
If Letwin doesn't pass then the vote for the deal is meaningful and Parliament is either giving it's support to the deal or with holding it.
So basically Letwin turns today into one great big can kicking exercise.
I’d be surprised if the Letwin amendment passes. If Labour MPs are going to vote for the Johnson Deal they’ll want it done and out of the way.
But at least one has expressed (anonymous) relief that it means they are off the hool today. And several of the ex-cons are for it besides Letwin.
I feel like it should be a weight off their shoulders to be decisive now, and rejecting the amendment and backing the motion as is would do that. But after putting off being decisive for so long, can the Kinnocks of the world pass up the chance to kick the can again?
I’d be surprised if the Letwin amendment passes. If Labour MPs are going to vote for the Johnson Deal they’ll want it done and out of the way.
Boris whole demeanor and way he is performing must give many the imputus to vote down Letwin and for the deal
Er, the very fact he can be more concilatory in demeanour but was not before is probably a reason for them to think they should vote for Letwin in case he switches mood again.
To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that
“We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”
So Grieve’s amendment way back insisted Parliament had a meaningful vote on a deal. We have a deal. It’s in “danger” of passing the meaningful vote, so up pops Letwin to make that vote meaningless.
Beyond parody. Beyond contempt.
While Letwin himself may have good intentions and concerns about legislation given the specific timeframes we have left rather than being opposed to just a MV if there was not a worry over no deal, it is at the very least strange for Grieve to write it so that a MV was what was needed and then decide that a MV was not sufficient.
Letwin is just an unbelievably thick twunt who thinks he is clever. It speaks volume that such an absolutely useless turd has been a leading Tory for so long and has been in the cabinet running the country. Explicitly shows why the UK is in the F***** up position it is in today. Any normal person would not trust this idiot to post a letter.
the ECJ that have never quite shaken off allegations of corruption to cover up a massive public health emergency in France (one that has still 25 years later only been partially admitted to).
What happens if Letwin passes but the deal is voted down?
The deal can't be voted down if Letwin passes if I understand all this.
Letwin changes the motion considerably so that HoC is not granting approval of the deal - it is defering that decision to a later date i.e. when real Bill comes forward.
This is enough to trigger the 11pm dash to Brussels with a letter asking for extension.
What happens if Letwin passes but the deal is voted down?
Macron vetoes further extension and we go to Brexit with No Deal, so Letwin delivers the Brexit Party manifesto and will be a hero for Paisley, Foster and Farage!!
The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
Very good question. We get several years of PM Boris Johnson with a Con working majority. I am not looking forward to this but I'm sure there are those who are. My hunch is that he would not lurch as far to the right as a lot of people think - for example there is IMO virtually no chance of a WTO crash out on 31 Dec 2020 - nevertheless it is not a great prospect as far as I'm concerned.
Fuck the DUP. They've been utter exploitative negative barstewards for months. There's nothing they'd ever say "yes" to - nothing.
If they cared that much about the UK and the Union they'd be willing to settle this with a compromise that moved it on and boosted investment, and in their own province in particular.
A few tariffs and regulations either which way isn't going to make any difference to the emotional identity of NI, and it will still be formally outside the EU as well.
The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
There is no break between the Tory Party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, Lord Trimble, the architect of the Good Friday Agreement (the DUP opposed) and the former leader of the Ulster Unionist party, the Tories sister party, backs the Boris Deal
Comments
Anyone who trusts BoZo buttons up the back...
Beyond parody. Beyond contempt.
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it
2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
Pathetic.
I support the Boris Deal too and am not a Fascist
However if Letwin pulls support most of the Tory rebels might also follow .
I think he has a good shot now, the estimates about most of the ERG and most of the independent conservatives look pretty reasonable now, but if it were that easy for him now I don't think the Letwin amendment would be regarded as needed by those who do not trust him.
3) Deal passes by one, with Jeremy Corbyn not turning up.
For my part I will remember.
'Get Brexit done'
The effectiveness seems to correlate with the length of the entreaty. For MV4, the real MV4 this time, the slogan should just be
'Brexit'.
Keep Cummings in the cupboard for the next week.
Has no bearing on the matter at hand today.
I admire your optimism that outside the EU you will face no annoying rules and regulations that you will have little ability to change. In fact we will continue to follow EU rules in many instances because industry will demand it, and you will have gone from a small ability to change those rules to zero ability.
(As hominem ignored).
Surely the pointless prevarication of Letwin's amendment really suits Labour's (and Corbyn's) fence-sitting.
When Brexiteers want de-regulation, what do they want to de-regulate?
Former Prime Minister, Social Affairs Minister and health Minister all found themselves in the dock.
If Letwin doesn't pass then the vote for the deal is meaningful and Parliament is either giving it's support to the deal or with holding it.
So basically Letwin turns today into one great big can kicking exercise.
I feel like it should be a weight off their shoulders to be decisive now, and rejecting the amendment and backing the motion as is would do that. But after putting off being decisive for so long, can the Kinnocks of the world pass up the chance to kick the can again?
Barclay is hopeless .
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1185503726594920448?s=20
PS: disease , not you personally
Barclay not satisfying DUP.
Burt voting for.
Letwin changes the motion considerably so that HoC is not granting approval of the deal - it is defering that decision to a later date i.e. when real Bill comes forward.
This is enough to trigger the 11pm dash to Brussels with a letter asking for extension.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1185229949579550720?s=20
If Letwin passes it doesn't matter if the deal passes as its not a meanginful vote and those "Aye's" can still become "No's" on another day.
The whole thing is a total waste of time - just like waste of space Letwin!
If they cared that much about the UK and the Union they'd be willing to settle this with a compromise that moved it on and boosted investment, and in their own province in particular.
A few tariffs and regulations either which way isn't going to make any difference to the emotional identity of NI, and it will still be formally outside the EU as well.
They are being ridiculously intransigent.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
All that has happened is the DUP have dumped the Tories in favour of the Brexit Party
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20