politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second l
Comments
-
Who has won ?
0 -
I suspect the EU will be quite similar.
Is he simple? That's exactly what he should be pretending it won't be. So much for renegotiation.0 -
-
Quite agree - so far the debate feels like a really drawn out joke with no punchline.Jonathan said:They're calling each other liars now. The grownups were right to sit this out.
0 -
I am pretty agnostic/positive on Europe and wouldn't have thought to vote to leave, given the chance.rcs1000 said:Number of minds changed tonight... Zero.
Nick has shallow arguments ("jobs"?), is patronising, arrogant-seeming and does not accept there are real challenges to be faced in our relationship with Europe. He is turning me against the EU in particular if tossers like him are in favour.
0 -
"Disappointed with Nick Clegg's performance in tonight's debate. Not sure he's helping himself. Too strident."
https://mobile.twitter.com/MartynSadler0 -
Does pose a problem for those that want out but don't want to vote for Nincompoop Nigel and whoever the other Kippers we are not allowed to see are.
That's given the track record of Dave on euro referenda0 -
Like a post from Pork?SimonStClare said:
Quite agree - so far the debate feels like a really drawn out joke with no punchline.Jonathan said:They're calling each other liars now. The grownups were right to sit this out.
0 -
Sounds like Clegg has got spanked.0
-
And on that note, to employ a popular EU saying...Adieu.0
-
Regardless of the accuracy of claims and counter-claims, I would say Farage has won this tonight by a country mile. I also thought Dumbledore was a piss poor chairman, nowhere near as good as the LBC chap last week.0
-
No. He was smooth, measured and reasonable sounding. Which many suggested was the problem (or part of the problem), and he's tried to be more passioned and energetic, less professional politician.maaarsh said:This is getting brutal for Clegg. I didn;t watch last week - was he this poor?
Never seek to play a game by the enemy's rules. Many do not like the bland amicability of our political classes, like Clegg, especially compared to the more engaging and forthright style of Farage (who is really having fun now, he know's he's in the zone right now). But even though that is a problem, Clegg, Ed M and Cameron cannot mimic Farage's style, so should stick to their normal style, for all it's faults.
I'm predicting 80/20 to call it for Farage - however I'm still more likely to vote LD than UKIP. But the LDs will need some luck to avoid a wipeout. These debates have given Clegg a chance to speak to the minority he wants to engage, and only time will tell if that works, but they haven't been a definite success.
I cannot stress enough that a 'loss' is not a disaster for Clegg, given he is an unpopular politician putting forward an unpopular opinion, btu they haven't worked wonders for him as they might have hoped.
Biggest losers? Cameron. Farage seems at his best when he is confident, and he will be brimming with it after tonight.0 -
Clegg too strident and preachy.0
-
Slightly overblown finish for Nigel. Nick going for the same patronising tone which has died on its arse all night.0
-
Quite an achievement for Farage to channel anti-war, anti-big business, anti-elite, anti-immigration, anti-politics instinct towards Ukip... @faisalislam0
-
Quite so. Farage has gotten the most out of it, as I have no doubt he will 'win' both debates, but it is laughable how many people pretend that Clegg, however much he would want to have swayed many more to his side by besting Farage, has suffered some catastrophe.JackW said:
That is not the calculation - it is not a win-lose game. It's win big or win small(small being gaining the potential for benefit at least). Farage has won middling I'd say, Farage won small.
0 -
No thanks, no tanks (or anyone foreign looking, or in a pin stripe suit, except me, or any OEs, except me and no politicians, except me)Carola said:Quite an achievement for Farage to channel anti-war, anti-big business, anti-elite, anti-immigration, anti-politics instinct towards Ukip... @faisalislam
It's a pacifist cult of personality!
0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 8m
Twitter worm update: Nigel Farage comfortably ahead with just under 10 minutes to go0 -
He upped the ante?Carola said:Quite an achievement for Farage to channel anti-war, anti-big business, anti-elite, anti-immigration, anti-politics instinct towards Ukip... @faisalislam
0 -
Don't know how the worm compared to the polling before but this hardly bodes well for Cleggy.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
Twitter worm update: Nigel Farage comfortably ahead with just under 10 minutes to go0 -
I think Farage won by being lighter on his feet than Clegg, obviously I was already decided in terms of the overall debate and voting LD.0
-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26854894
Stephen Pollard, Editor, the Jewish Chronicle
tweets: I thought this would be low key after last week. Actually much more fiery. Both men were stronger and better debaters tonight.
Clegg was better tonight? I guess some people may have thought so, as he did show more emotion, but for me he is a good operator in his usual style (limited in effectiveness though that professionalism can be), and Farage was on top of his game in a way he didn't manage last time.0 -
Owen Jones:
"Nigel Farage has won this debate, and that is entirely Nick Clegg's fault. #europedebate"
https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenJones840 -
That's nothing new for a Lib Dem and let's not start on the politics
Pulpstar said:Sounds like Clegg has got spanked.
0 -
Labour do have their constituency advantage. But if the SNP get 2-3 more percentage points and Labour lose that much, then things will get very interesting - and not just in Scotland, perhaps.Stuart_Dickson said:Just had a look at that Populus monthly summary. Very frightening findings for Lamont's hopeless Slabbers and Rennie's hopeless Con-merchants.
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
SNP 34% (+14)
Lab 34% (-8)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 7% (-12)
UKIP 3% (+2)
Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats)
SNP 20 seats (+14 seats)
Con 2 seats (+1 seat)
LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140401-Populus_FT-March-2014.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=18&LAB=34&LIB=7&NAT=34®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted
0 -
Huge win for Farage. Clegg reduced to spouting mild euroscepticism.0
-
Even twitter called it for Nige apparently - if Nick can't win that demographic the poll in a mo will not look pretty.0
-
LBC worm apparently had them both in negative territory most of the way through.0
-
SNP gain Inverness ? 4-1...Carnyx said:
Labour do have their constituency advantage. But if the SNP get 2-3 more percentage points and Labour lose that much, then things will get very interesting - and not just in Scotland, perhaps.Stuart_Dickson said:Just had a look at that Populus monthly summary. Very frightening findings for Lamont's hopeless Slabbers and Rennie's hopeless Con-merchants.
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
SNP 34% (+14)
Lab 34% (-8)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 7% (-12)
UKIP 3% (+2)
Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats)
SNP 20 seats (+14 seats)
Con 2 seats (+1 seat)
LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140401-Populus_FT-March-2014.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=18&LAB=34&LIB=7&NAT=34®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
I assume Carmichael and Kennedy are the two Lib Dem holds ?0
-
Win for Farage again. Poor Nick would lose a debate on child welfare to Herod.0
-
Farage trotted out the classic nationalist playbook. Oversimpified populism, laced with nostalgia and military imagery.0
-
In some cases, yes. In other cases it would be landowners and others - many rural dwellers rent from outside their families. In the case of the few new builds the rarely-seen 'locals' allow, they go to other rarely-seen locals looking for a holiday home to entertain Tarquin and Isobel for a few weeks over the summer, or rent out at vast profit,Easterross said:
The only point I would make is that it is the parents and grandparents of these young people who cant afford to buy houses in rural communities who chose to sell to city slickers at vastly inflated prices for a quick buck. They could have sold to local young people but the sight of London/SE £signs made them reach for the white settlers cash and turn their backs on their own young people. It is exactly the same up here in the Highlands.JosiasJessop said:
"Ghost towns"Charles said:
That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.
It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.
F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.
And if this seems like a lefty rant, be aware: I AM NOT A TORY AND CARE FOR THE COUNTRYSIDE AND THE PEOPLE WITHIN IT0 -
I cannot envisgage a situation where Clegg, even if he had spanked Farage right off the stage, metaphorically, would be tracking ahead. I would expect him to poll lower than last time, as he abandoned the smooth if slightly patronising tone at times, without much success, as Farage did not rise to the bait, so he lost the reasonable but preachy air without gaining the passionate and angry air that Farage generally uses.Mick_Pork said:Don't know how the worm compared to the polling before but this hardly bodes well for Cleggy.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
Twitter worm update: Nigel Farage comfortably ahead with just under 10 minutes to go
0 -
old_labour said:
That's nothing new for a Lib Dem and let's not start on the politics
Pulpstar said:Sounds like Clegg has got spanked.
Khaled Omar @eng_khaled_omar 9h
Lord Rennard is victim of political conspiracy, say his allies http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/19/lord-rennard-allies-allege-political-conspiracy …
Must be all those conspiracies Clegg was wittering on about eariler.
0 -
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?0 -
Cłegg got very repetitive and clunky over his "turning back the clock" theme.0
-
This debate was truly the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable. But Farage loses it in my mind over his male bondage session with Putin. I'm surprised he isn't in favour of gay marriage for that reason. ;-)
But the real loser is Dimbleby. Ferrari had much more horsepower last week.0 -
I thought the Liberal party was anti-Europe prior to being subsumed by the SDP/Labour lite metro brigade?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?0 -
My dad's a big LD supporter and I'm trying to stop him seeing the post-debate polls because I think they could be dreadful for Clegg.0
-
I've not watched it but if it was anything like the first debate then it was a win for Farage.0
-
Clegg admits he lost in first 30 second interview afterwards. It was that bad.0
-
485 -> 444 is 'material' in the accounting sense of the word.0
-
Actually I think Cleggo was better this week than last. But a definite win for Farage despite the Putin tangle.0
-
Dr Plank: You have given up 4-b-2 and have resorted to wacking your opponents with a 50'x2''x1'' piece of balsa-wood. And all from deepest Surrey!Jonathan said:Farage trotted out the classic nationalist playbook. Oversimpified populism, laced with nostalgia and military imagery.
Ouch!!!; not!!!
:are-you-lonely:0 -
The rump Libs are anti "as is". The majority, which merged, was pro.dyedwoolie said:
I thought the Liberal party was anti-Europe prior to being subsumed by the SDP/Labour lite metro brigade?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?0 -
I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.corporeal said:
0 -
If no one else was willing to step up and try to debate Farage publically and in person, the other parties can hardly complain even if the commentariat can. Farage is the more likable (I know some people dislike his style, but he's an engaging bloke) politician and, much like the SNP, has been waiting for a moment like this for a long long time. Given how much disdain there is for Clegg on the left, why wouldn't they think of course he would lose.AndyJS said:Owen Jones:
"Nigel Farage has won this debate, and that is entirely Nick Clegg's fault. #europedebate"
https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenJones84
Clegg took on the more popular figure knowing his own argument is not well liked, and that he is not well liked. I doubt having the balls to do that will win him any votes - he did it because a hail mary pass is better than nothing - but until someone else manages to deflate the Farage bandwagon, I'll take the criticism of Labour or Tory supporters with a pinch of salt.
0 -
As best I remember they backed it in the referendum and had before that.dyedwoolie said:
I thought the Liberal party was anti-Europe prior to being subsumed by the SDP/Labour lite metro brigade?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?0 -
Dimbleby was showing his age, alas. Time for the Beeb to put him out to pasture.JosiasJessop said:This debate was truly the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable. But Farage loses it in my mind over his male bondage session with Putin. I'm surprised he isn't in favour of gay marriage for that reason. ;-)
But the real loser is Dimbleby. Ferrari had much more horsepower last week.0 -
How indeed?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
Lord Rennard: A prominent and powerful 'Rasputin figure' who ruled the Lib Dem machine
It was he who manoeuvred young Nick Clegg into the safe seat of Sheffield Hallam and, as returning officer in 2007, determined that a batch of late postal votes, that would have handed the leadership to his rival Chris Huhne, were not accepted.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/lord-rennard-a-prominent-and-powerful-rasputin-figure-who-ruled-the-lib-dem-machine-8508671.html
It's a funny old game politics. 0 -
The Liberal party has been pro EU from the get-go.dyedwoolie said:
I thought the Liberal party was anti-Europe prior to being subsumed by the SDP/Labour lite metro brigade?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
0 -
I didn't see the debate, but from the comments on 'ere it sounds as if these are two polar opposites the public might very well decide to be betwixt and between.
0 -
STAT: only 60 tweets of 14,000 sent so far have backed Clegg in #EuropeDebate finds @Demos/@IpsosMORI analysis - 8,781 against him
— Demos (@Demos) April 2, 20140 -
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 2m
We have the winner. Standby. #europedebate0 -
Poll results "startling" - Kay Burley Sky News.0
-
Demos @Demos
STAT: only 60 tweets of 14,000 sent so far have backed Clegg in #EuropeDebate finds @Demos/@IpsosMORI analysis - 8,781 against him0 -
I honestly can't contain my excitement.... surely it's a foregone conclusion?maaarsh said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 2m
We have the winner. Standby. #europedebate0 -
Ed and Dave won the debate?JackW said:
Poll results "startling" - Kay Burley Sky News.
0 -
That's about right, as I understand it. And if Huhne had been prosecuted as Party Leader …..Mick_Pork said:
How indeed?OldKingCole said:As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
Lord Rennard: A prominent and powerful 'Rasputin figure' who ruled the Lib Dem machine
It was he who manoeuvred young Nick Clegg into the safe seat of Sheffield Hallam and, as returning officer in 2007, determined that a batch of late postal votes, that would have handed the leadership to his rival Chris Huhne, were not accepted.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/lord-rennard-a-prominent-and-powerful-rasputin-figure-who-ruled-the-lib-dem-machine-8508671.html
It's a funny old game politics.
Oh Fkcu0 -
Any news on the polls, re the debate? YouGov had their poll out in minutes last week.0
-
I don't disagree - perhaps have a minimum (3m?) residency periodJosiasJessop said:
"Ghost towns"Charles said:
That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.
It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.
F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.
Kensington is full of 4th homes for the global uber-rich0 -
Startling now being used in the maybe closer than you thought sort of way. We shall see.0
-
Poll results "startling" - Kay Burley Sky News.
Ah but she's easily startled, is our Kay.....0 -
Good evening, everyone.
0 -
If UKIP supporters are being magnanimous and even partly complimentary about Clegg's performance, you know Farage definitely smoked it,
Clegg must have been dreading those final couple of questions - he did much better in the middle, but even as someone who would probably vote to stay in, and am considering voting LD in May on that basis alone (Tories are at war over what they want, and I genuinely do not think Labour have a position, just a calculated set of ideas to avoid sparking their own internal war), he has yet to find a credible answer to the referendum question.
One thing about the 'not now, at a time of major upheaval/uncertainty' argument, is you can bet your house that if those responsible for calling a referendum thought the wrong result would occur, it would never be the right time. Some new crisis or challenge would no doubt emerge.
Referendum as soon as possible please - I think we'd vote to leave and we would come to regret it, but staying in reluctantly is not helping us or europe, it is making things so bitter.
0 -
Poll 68 v 27. Landslide0
-
Blimey.0
-
YouGov: Farage wins 68-27.0
-
You already pay full council tax on a second home, plus capital gains if it's made enough. At the moment, we're having to pay full rates on my financee's house, which we've been trying to sell for the last 7 months. In that time we've had five viewings for a property that's in reasonable condition, in a lovely location and a friendly, neighbourly area. It's on the market for £75k so hardly top-end. Count me unimpressed by talk of housing bubbles.JosiasJessop said:
"Ghost towns"Charles said:
That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.
It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.
F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27787896.html0 -
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 35s
ICM Guardian: Farage 69% Clegg 31%0 -
UKIP now clear favourites for Euros?0
-
Guardian: Farage by 69-31.0
-
maaarsh said:
I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.corporeal said:
Well since we were talking about misleading statistics one that was just simply untrue seemed worth a comment.maaarsh said:
I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.corporeal said:0 -
0
-
Both YouGov and ICM have huge wins for Farage.0
-
I like Dimbleby and thought he had some good contributions, but there'd be no shame in letting someone else with experience step in to his shoes at this point.MikeK said:
Dimbleby was showing his age, alas. Time for the Beeb to put him out to pasture.JosiasJessop said:This debate was truly the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable. But Farage loses it in my mind over his male bondage session with Putin. I'm surprised he isn't in favour of gay marriage for that reason. ;-)
But the real loser is Dimbleby. Ferrari had much more horsepower last week.
0 -
Oh dear now Danny's using the left over crap Lib Dem pun work - Nigel Mirage. Woeful.0
-
Clegg lost the plot this week. Last week he was far better.0
-
I thought farage came on strong in the last half hour of the debate,he gets my vote in the Euro elections.0
-
Danny Alexander: "I haven't studied the details of these polls".
LOL.0 -
Very similar polls.0
-
"Nigel Farage had a "glass of BBC mid-range red wine" in the run-up to tonight's debate, UKIP says. #europedebate polho.me/1j0oSRw"
https://mobile.twitter.com/politicshome0 -
It's not simply wrong. British people are people in the EU with the right to move to Britain. They are already in Britain which limits the likelyhood of them to re-exercise that right, but it's you're going to make pathetic nitpicky complaints then you should stick to the semantics rather more closely.corporeal said:maaarsh said:
I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.corporeal said:
Well since we were talking about misleading statistics one that was just simply untrue seemed worth a comment.maaarsh said:
I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.corporeal said:0 -
Oversimplified populism like "British jobs for British workers"?Jonathan said:Farage trotted out the classic nationalist playbook. Oversimpified populism, laced with nostalgia and military imagery.
How goes that "military imagery" Blair and his labour acolytes were so fond of BTW?
The Guardian @guardian Apr 1
Afghanistan election candidates raise fears over widespread fraud http://gu.com/p/3z3j5/tw @guardianworld
RSF / RWB @RSF_RWB 2h
#Afghanistan - Call for more security for journalists covering presidential election http://ift.tt/1mz8sQW
Militants Attack Afghan Election Office In #Kabul - — KABUL, Afghanistan (AP)... http://j.mp/P4jDG0 #InternationalElectionCommission
Baghdad (AFP) - A suicide bomber killed six army recruits Wednesday as the UN's envoy to Iraq warned that the country's election campaign would be "highly divisive" amid a year-long surge in bloodshed
http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-suicide-bomb-kills-6-un-warns-divisive-101106431.html0 -
Utterly unsurprising poll. Clegg gets 36 on a pretty even debate despite being the party of unpopular 'in', he gets 27 (and 31)when it is generally seen as a Farage debate win. Not what he would have wanted of course, but Farage showed why those who have dismissed him in the past are wrong to do so, just because he presents as anti-political class does not mean he cannot fight on the same terms if he has to.0
-
Nige winning Labour now big time.0
-
The sort of political language voters can't stand.old_labour said:Danny Alexander: "I haven't studied the details of these polls".
LOL.0 -
Mark Senior = Danny Alexander?old_labour said:Danny Alexander: "I haven't studied the details of these polls".
LOL.
0
