politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets still make December favourite for the gene

If Boris gets a deal, doesn’t his argument for a General Election disappear?

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

If a deal isnt agreed....who gets the blame?

FrancisUrquhart said:

If a deal isnt agreed....who gets the blame?

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

They blew it considering we hold all the cards and No Deal was a million to one chance.

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Jonathan said:

If Boris gets a deal, doesn’t his argument for a General Election disappear?

No matter, question is whether a VONC will carry.
Corbyn might not like Boris getting a halo effect from the deal, but you can bet Farage will be screaming and his party will mostly damage the Tories.
But who knows. It's so volatile and four GB wide parties to consider

The_Taxman said:

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

I see Jess Phillips lied on live TV that she knocked on 25000 doors in GE 2017

The in joke in the Labour Party is

Knock knock

Whose there

Its fuckin Jess Phillips again

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If a deal isnt agreed....who gets the blame?

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

They blew it considering we hold all the cards and No Deal was a million to one chance.

We’ve found the one hoping it fails!

Wrong.

I want a deal.

Good on you

isam said:

I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

OK in what sense? Holding a by-election after switching parties is something I admire people doing, but it is not mandatory so I cannot do more than grumble at people for not doing so, especially at a febrile time in our politics. Similarly, people who pledged one thing then did another is annoying but u-turns do happen and can be justified, even though I think the defence that Allen has changed her mind is weak and unconvincing in this case.

And ultimately the British public has the ability to punish individual MPs and the big parties collectively for playing such games and not delivering on what they said, so while that is not easy to manage, yes I do think it is ok, albeit crappy.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.

And what would an odd blowout in middle age be like for after a non hedonistic youth? Your premise is based on enjoying it as a youth, so enjoying it later in life, just less often. I'm not as puritanical as some of today's millenials, but hedonistic I was not. Maybe a joint would be nice relaxer when I hit my 40s, but I'm not sold on the prospect, and while I am relaxed about drug liberalisation, a lot of casual drug users seem to assume that most people are desperate to join them.

Fair enough and good response...

Fair enough in turn, each to their own I say - we all know how bad it can be, but for those for whom it isn't no harm no foul.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Until a Deal is a greed I would not take too much notice of media speculation as it is invariably wrong! Some journalists must be pretty gullible given the stories they produce, only to be completely superseded by the reverse the next day!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

The_Taxman said:

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

Foot soldiers only get so much sympathy, as they choose to pound the streets after all. How much darkness and rain is worth not fighting to prevent that evil marxist/fascist from becoming/remaining PM?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1182411548544909312?s=21

I have significant forebodings from some the early speculation what this deal entails. Not only the possibility that he has not just thrown the DUP under the Brecit bus, but repeatedly reversed back over them, but the whole minimal FTA thing. OK, I've no love for the DUP, but I had hoped for a figleaf that whatever happened at Larne or elsewhere on exit from Ireland could be waved away as technical and low impact.

The Hammond forecasts were that May's close relationship would be 30ish% of the downside of No Deal, and a full FTA 70%ish. Does a minimal FTA actually save us at all from No Deal? I suppose politically it gives us something to build on and avoids some v of the rancour of No Deal, but you can't call it good.

Of course, what emerges could be very different from this, but I'm not feeling it so far. Having strongly backed the December 17 declaration and the WA, this feels much worse. Could I back it? Honestly, I'm not sure yet, let's see.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Channeling Trump.

MarqueeMark said:

The_Taxman said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris gets a deal, doesn’t his argument for a General Election disappear?

Doesn't Corbyn's argument for not having one disappear?

Paradoxically, a deal might cause the Conservatives to lose support to the Brexit party who oppose a deal? People who oppose Brexit are going to vote for Remain parties whether a deal happens or not. For instance I am not going to vote Tory whilst BJ is leader of the party or until the Brexit madness ends...

I suspect most Brexit Party supporters now just want Brexit. They have seen it was very close to being taken away from them. Farage has already had a ton of shit poured over him by Brexit Party supporters when he raged against Boris' proposed deal.

They will consider that voting Brexit on the Euro elections showed the very real peril for the Tories in not delivering a deal. A Brexit that is a real divorce is what they wanted. Boris knows that has to be delivered.

That’s the way I see it. I like Farage but it’s madness to risk not leaving in order to get a certain version of leaving. The symbolism of getting the establishment to do something they didn’t want to is huge IMO

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

kle4 said:

The_Taxman said:

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

Foot soldiers only get so much sympathy, as they choose to pound the streets after all. How much darkness and rain is worth not fighting to prevent that evil marxist/fascist from becoming/remaining PM?

I suppose if you put it that way...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Only if enough Labour MPs vote for any Boris Deal to counter the loss of DUP support which is unlikely

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

OK in

And ultimately the British public has the ability to punish individual MPs and the big parties collectively for playing such games and not delivering on what they said, so while that is not easy to manage, yes I do think it is ok, albeit crappy.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.

And what woulde to join them.

Fair enough and good response...

Fair enough in turn, each to their own I say - we all know how bad it can be, but for those for whom it isn't no harm no foul.

I justman shouldn’t get her off the hook

It's not even slightly borderline criminal, even for purposes of analogy. But it is such a major shift in her stated position, and her supposed change of mind not convincing, that to me the appropriate response is that she is continually pressed on the things she said then and having to continually justify her new position against that, that would be ensuring she is not let off the hook. It's not a hugely strong position, so it could hurt her chances.

If her voters do back her despite that u-turn (obviously mostly not the same voters) however, then that's fair enough in my book.

Recall bill

I'm not in favour of the recall of MPs simply because they do something people do not like. Yes there will be cases as with Allen where someone has gone completely against what they promised, or switched parties, but I think it is less disproportionate to punish them at a scheduled election than allow recall at any time or on the basis of changing allegiance (what if the party changes direction and kicks you out?), as that would be abused by people who just want to overturn the win. Recall with a trigger event like conviction or suspension, as now, seems better. It'd also be hypocritical to hold individual MPs to a higher standard re their promises than parties with their non-enforceable manifestoes -especially as there are sometimes very good reasons one cannot deliver on those.

bigjohnowls said:

The_Taxman said:

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

I see Jess Phillips lied on live TV that she knocked on 25000 doors in GE 2017

The in joke in the Labour Party is

Knock knock

Whose there

Its fuckin Jess Phillips again

Have you ever considered that she has a team of supporters?

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1181681343266201601?s=19

Is it really sensible to spend so much of your time attacking fellow members of the Labour Party?

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

I'm even more militant on this than I am on people who defile pizzas by putting pineapples on them.

Ans what about if they are a no tie type of guy?

Then I ring up the recruitment agent and tell them we will no longer deal with them if this is what they consider to be an acceptable candidate.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

I'm even more militant on this than I am on people who defile pizzas by putting pineapples on them.

Ans what about if they are a no tie type of guy?

Then I ring up the recruitment agent and tell them we will no longer deal with them if this is what they consider to be an acceptable candidate.

Or wear brown shoes with dark suit. Or brown shoes full-stop.

kle4 said:

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

OK in

And ultimately

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.

And what woulde to join them.

Fair enough and good response...

Fair enough in turn, each to their own I say - we all know how bad it can be, but for those for whom it isn't no harm no foul.

I justman shouldn’t get her off the hook

It's not even slightly borderline criminal, even for purposes of analogy. But it is such a major shift in her stated position, and her supposed change of mind not convincing, that to me the appropriate response is that she is continually pressed on the things she said then and having to continually justify her new position against that, that would be ensuring she is not let off the hook. It's not a hugely strong position, so it could hurt her chances.

If her voters do back her despite that u-turn (obviously mostly not the same voters) however, then that's fair enough in my book.

Recall bill

I'm not in favour of the recall of MPs simply because they do something people do not like. Yes there will be cases as with Allen where someone has gone completely against what they promised, or switched parties, but I think it is less disproportionate to punish them at a scheduled election than allow recall at any time or on the basis of changing allegiance (what if the party changes direction and kicks you out?), as that would be abused by people who just want to overturn the win. Recall with a trigger event like conviction or suspension, as now, seems better. It'd also be hypocritical to hold individual MPs to a higher standard re their promises than parties with their non-enforceable manifestoes -especially as there are sometimes very good reasons one cannot deliver on those.

If Johnson’s deal with the EU fails to pass by one vote, and she voted against it having said what she did to get elected, she would be responsible for x amount of years more chaos on the back of selling her constituents a False prospectus, with no hope of getting rid of her until Possibly 2022

TheScreamingEagles said:

ozymandias said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

I'm even more militant on this than I am on people who defile pizzas by putting pineapples on them.

Ans what about if they are a no tie type of guy?

Then I ring up the recruitment agent and tell them we will no longer deal with them if this is what they consider to be an acceptable candidate.

Or wear brown shoes with dark suit.

Oh I regularly wear brown shoes with a dark suit.

Brown in town? Ok.....sorry 😀

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, knocking up the voters in November, December, and January is not my idea of fun.

I thought you left the Tory Party!

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to be the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

.

Damn, so that's why you did not hire me! I should have revealed my PB identity, but perhaps that would not have countered the tie faux pas...

I would have hired you if you had mentioned the English Civil War.

I remember one memorable interview where about 90% of the interview was about the Civil War and Tumbledown Dick.

If a brexit deal has been struck in the Wirral today it will give the scousers another reason to be absolutely unbearable

Drutt said:

If a brexit deal has been struck in the Wirral today it will give the scousers another reason to be absolutely unbearable

Christ. Didn’t think of that.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to be the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

.

Damn, so that's why you did not hire me! I should have revealed my PB identity, but perhaps that would not have countered the tie faux pas...

I would have hired you if you had mentioned the English Civil War.

I remember one memorable interview where about 90% of the interview was about the Civil War and Tumbledown Dick.

"My legal hero? John Cook of course"

kle4 said:

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

OK in

And ultimately the British public has the ability to punish individual MPs and the big parties collectively for playing such games and not delivering on what they said, so while that is not easy to manage, yes I do think it is ok, albeit crappy.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.

And what woulde to join them.

Fair enough and good response...

foul.

I justman shouldn’t get her off the hook

.

If her voters do back her despite that u-turn (obviously mostly not the same voters) however, then that's fair enough in my book.

Recall bill

I'm not in favour of the recall of MPs simply because they do something people do not like. Yes there will be cases as with Allen where someone has gone completely against what they promised, or switched parties, but I think it is less disproportionate to punish them at a scheduled election than allow recall at any time or on the basis of changing allegiance (what if the party changes direction and kicks you out?), as that would be abused by people who just want to overturn the win. Recall with a trigger event like conviction or suspension, as now, seems better. It'd also be hypocritical to hold individual MPs to a higher standard re their promises than parties with their non-enforceable manifestoes -especially as there are sometimes very good reasons one cannot deliver on those.

I actually think it is a good thing for MPs to defect if they no longer agree with a party policy or leadership. I can understand that some may agitate for a by-election but it is up to a member to decide how best to represent their constituents and their interests. We are currently in a political fix with a hung parliament featuring various degrees of chaos depending how you count the 20 odd MPs Boris has chucked overboard. I know if my MP defected at the moment I would rather they represent my views at a time of political drama than trigger a by-election that might be superseded by a General Election within months...

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to be the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

.

Damn, so that's why you did not hire me! I should have revealed my PB identity, but perhaps that would not have countered the tie faux pas...

I would have hired you if you had mentioned the English Civil War.

I remember one memorable interview where about 90% of the interview was about the Civil War and Tumbledown Dick.

"My legal hero? John Cook of course"

Magnificent.

Can we have a discussion about Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone?

I kept on thinking about writing a thread saying we needed a Barebone's Parliament for Brexit.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Drutt said:

If a brexit deal has been struck in the Wirral today it will give the scousers another reason to be absolutely unbearable

The Wirral isn't Liverpool, there's a bit of water and a tunnel between the two.

Plastic Scousers is the usual term for Wirralites.

Before anyone gets upset, I married a plastic Scouser.

Isnt that what they call a liverpool fan who lives in sheffield?

Nah, I was there when Roy Hodgson was our manager.

ozymandias said:

Random question. Who’s looking forward to El Camino?

Me, I've rewatched Breaking Bad over the summer.

Breaking Bad is the best TV show ever, anyone who says otherwise will spend eternity stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ozymandias said:

Random question. Who’s looking forward to El Camino?

Me, I've rewatched Breaking Bad over the summer.

Breaking Bad is the best TV show ever, anyone who says otherwise will spend eternity stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan.

I hope they don’t balls it up. BCS is an excellent stand-alone so hope this one off has its own legs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ozymandias said:

Random question. Who’s looking forward to El Camino?

Me, I've rewatched Breaking Bad over the summer.

Breaking Bad is the best TV show ever, anyone who says otherwise will spend eternity stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan.

Oh gods, first pineapple on pizza and then this? You are a monster.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, knocking up the voters in November, December, and January is not my idea of fun.

I thought you left the Tory Party!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, knocking up the voters in November, December, and January is not my idea of fun.

I thought you left the Tory Party!

Is he talking about canvassing?

Alistair said:

Rudy just off to do some base solidifying In Vienna

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1182414112866885635?s=19

That seems fine and totally legit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Boris Johnson has sold out the DUP, he's taken away their veto.

Interesting picture choice, makes it look like a cowed Boris is meekly accepting some words from Varadkar.(I do not think that is so, btw, but its in how Boris' head is angled down, hands in pockets)

Of course, anyone who pushes that kind of line ensures the ERG and DUP will kick off even if it is not so!

In that picture Boris Johnson shows his unfitness for high office.

Just look at the length of his tie, it should not be that long, it should not go pass his belt.

Johnson does appear to like a really long tie for some reason. But having attended school in the early 2000s when there was a ridiculous trend of pupils having the shortest possible ties they could somehow put on, I prefer an over long one to a over short one.

When I interview people if they wear a tie

1) That long

and/or

2) A dental floss thin tie that used to be the preserve of twinks

They never get hired.

.

Damn, so that's why you did not hire me! I should have revealed my PB identity, but perhaps that would not have countered the tie faux pas...

I would have hired you if you had mentioned the English Civil War.

I remember one memorable interview where about 90% of the interview was about the Civil War and Tumbledown Dick.

"My legal hero? John Cook of course"

Magnificent.

Can we have a discussion about Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone?

I kept on thinking about writing a thread saying we needed a Barebone's Parliament for Brexit.

I fear I would need to refresh myself of my old studies before I could hold my own, though I did read this rather snappily titled 'When God was King' on the period last year.

Gabs2 said:

"One option the EU could accept is a scaled-down version of the customs partnership proposed by Theresa May for the whole of the UK and the whole of the EU. The reduced version would apply only to Northern Ireland, which would leave the EU customs union and remain part of the UK customs territory.

Under the customs partnership, the UK would agree to enforce EU customs rules and tariffs on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. But if the EU tariff was higher than the UK tariff, businesses in the North would receive a rebate.

So Northern Ireland would leave the EU customs union and would enjoy all the benefits of an independent UK trade policy. But the customs border for administrative purposes would run alongside the regulatory border in the Irish Sea."

This is confusing. Could it have unintended consequences like falling foul of state aid rules? There might be competitive advantages to moving a business from south to north, which might make it impossible for Ireland/the EU to swallow.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Alistair said:

Rudy just off to do some base solidifying In Vienna

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1182414112866885635?s=19

That seems fine and totally legit.

Fake moustache / 1670km train journey / Moscow / new life

Alistair said:

Rudy just off to do some base solidifying In Vienna

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1182414112866885635?s=19

This means nothing to me.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Rudy just off to do some base solidifying In Vienna

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1182414112866885635?s=19

This means nothing to me.

I see what you did there.....

Noo said:

Gabs2 said:

"One option the EU could accept is a scaled-down version of the customs partnership proposed by Theresa May for the whole of the UK and the whole of the EU. The reduced version would apply only to Northern Ireland, which would leave the EU customs union and remain part of the UK customs territory.

Under the customs partnership, the UK would agree to enforce EU customs rules and tariffs on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. But if the EU tariff was higher than the UK tariff, businesses in the North would receive a rebate.

So Northern Ireland would leave the EU customs union and would enjoy all the benefits of an independent UK trade policy. But the customs border for administrative purposes would run alongside the regulatory border in the Irish Sea."

This is confusing. Could it have unintended consequences like falling foul of state aid rules? There might be competitive advantages to moving a business from south to north, which might make it impossible for Ireland/the EU to swallow.

At some point there has to be compromise on both sides. Given the Republic's tax haven shenanigans that effectively leech off its neighbours, I don't think it is reasonable for it to complain about a minor tariff subsidy.

Plus Northern Ireland would be outside the EU so the EU can agree to whatever opt outs to state aid they want for it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Breaking Bad is the best TV show ever, anyone who says otherwise will spend eternity stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan.

The spinoff (Better Call Saul) is fantastic too. A different style, but that's necessary to avoid just being a tame echo of the original.

Is Rudy heading to Vienna to be a pacer for Kipchoge ?

If this really is the deal it could be an economic boom for Northern Ireland. They would have a legup over GB on regulatory alignment with the EU and no checks going into the single market, and a legup over ROI by getting to benefit from the UK's FTA tariff cuts.

This could really help tame the poverty that leads to violence and giving an electoral tailwind to the party in power, almost certainly the DUP.

Let us hope they are smart enough to take it.

Foxy said:

bigjohnowls said:

The_Taxman said:

I pity the poor foot soldiers who have to go out in all weather in a November/December GE. The politicians have it easy travelling around the country or being in nice warm studios. I wonder too, if turnout will be dismal if an election takes place at such a dark time of year?

I see Jess Phillips lied on live TV that she knocked on 25000 doors in GE 2017

The in joke in the Labour Party is

Knock knock

Whose there

Its fuckin Jess Phillips again

Have you ever considered that she has a team of supporters?

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1181681343266201601?s=19

Is it really sensible to spend so much of your time attacking fellow members of the Labour Party?

"I knocked on 25000 doors only 12 mentioned Brexit"

Obvious lie.

Hence the knock knock joke in Birmingham.

I spend most of my time attacking Tory Swinson.

Gallowgate can give me a reference

TGOHF2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ozymandias said:

Random question. Who’s looking forward to El Camino?

Me, I've rewatched Breaking Bad over the summer.

Breaking Bad is the best TV show ever, anyone who says otherwise will spend eternity stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan.

Nah Deadwood is far better.

That’s more controversial than any Brexit statement made on this site!!!!