politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson on New Year’s Day?
This market by Paddy Power on Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings should attract a lot of attention given the prominence of Mr Cummings and his publicity shy nature that can only be rivalled by Paddy Power.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49940325
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/poll-shows-conservative-party-15-points-ahead-of-labour
I like this idea. Given that neither Johnson nor Cummings have any principles, they urgently need someone to fill such a role.
On topic, while Cummings has been an abject and terrible failure, can Johnson afford to admit that? Their fates are quite closely bound up together. If Cummings walks before an election, Johnson is probably finished. That alone makes it an unattractive market.
Big(gish) 3 only on 76%
Let’s assume that the nationalists and odds&sods are at 8% in aggregate - I suppose that puts Brexit on 16 which I guess is plausible?
Labour previous got 40% nationally, with one third of that being leave.
So they've gone from 13% -> 4%.
That actually would explain a large part of their polling decline.
But as for his legend, I would point out that in all his career he has achieved one thing - winning the EU referendum. And that might have been in spite of him rather than because of him.
Everything else he has tried, in politics or business, has been at best a failure and at worst a fiasco. Just look at his disastrous record in education.
I suppose it depends what Cummings tells the PM his policy is, no?
Assuming the spiv survives politically till then, what he and his puppet master will be praised or blamed for will be the state of Britain since October 31.
If we leave then or soon after, and we Remainers go quietly, they'll be remembered as the people who got us out - and probably as the nutcases responsible for the ensuing catastrophes.
If we never leave, they may well be remembered as the devious geniuses who persuaded a country to do the right thing in spite of itself.
For the thousands of other possible post Oct 31 outcomes: who knows? Because that's the trouble with letting those with severe mental handicaps do real jobs. You can't even trust them to be lying.
Please remember that the EU project isn't the Messiah. They are being naughty boys, but they genuinely believe in the concept of a united Europe.
Brexit will never happen, but the lasting effect will be a deep resentment from many voters who will see a referendum being ignored. Pretending that it's all too difficult and farting around for three years fools nobody. It was never going to happen, too many self-important people wouldn't allow it, and anyone who disagrees is an ignorant fool. The will of the people is a recipe for fascism, or even worse - populism.
I suppose they assume that people will see the error of their ways and come to thank their betters for saving them.
Somehow I doubt it. There's an old saying with a lot of truth. "A man convinced against his will retains his own opinion still." Even worse, they will never be convinced because the real fascists will never allow it to happen.
In many ways, it would have been best to let to let Brexit happen and see it fail than block it and lose democratic trust.
£156,250 Million PW
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIoPy_tY2H5QIVmpntCh0wdg84EAAYASAAEgLHK_D_BwE
The ONS says net figure is £11.0bn but that does not include EU funds that UK companies are able to access.
Either way the net figure is closer to £10bn than £17bn.
Thought you were better than that @rcs1000!
I apologise if so.
In addition to the regular contributions members pay "0.3% of their harmonised VAT base into the budget". It's a small but meaningful bump to the regularly discussed number.
(That's 0.3% from 20% - i.e. 6% of total VAT take)
Question is: if that 0.3% VAT contribution (which would be sizable - circa £6bn) is in addition to the other EU contributions, where does it appear in the Pink Book?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2018
As you've voted to Leave, you probably don't want a role setting internal EU rules, and it would probably be worthwhile us creating a position that will be one where the UK and the EU have close cooperation in the future.
Which led to the creation of the EU Security Commisonar, because it was assumed that the EU and the UK would want to have close arrangements in future.
I mention this, because this was a demonstration of how (at the beginning of this process), both sides seemed to be wanting to work towards something that worked for everyone.
Before Steve Baker and Marc Francois and Dominic Grieve fucked things up.
But that doesn't mean we should rewrite the law to satisfy the hissy fits of dimwitted lawyers. That is the Cummings approach. And to be honest, much though I dislike our politicians, I am a great deal more wary of condescending judges effectively making laws up to enforce their prejudices on the rest of us.
The message to the EU seems to be to do a deal or see the Conservatives cleaning up in an election with a mandate for pursuing no deal if necessary. That is inconsistent with the above plan.
I think almost all of the Cummings ‘plans’ so far have involved threatening to do things which they either wouldn’t do, or wouldn’t want to do. In the hope that opposition (whether in parliment or the EU) would act to prevent the risk of them doing them. Plan A of course was the pre November election.
If all sides had kept up the collegiate approach, things would be a lot better now, but sadly at some point soon after the referendum all sides adopted a much more adversarial attitude, so three years later we are where we are.
There is a nice legal quotation about changes to the law 'not being affected by the weather of the day but by the climate of the era'. At the moment we are on the cusp. Brexit is an older generation regreting the pssing of an empire. The climate of the era will be very different in a few years time.
From the EU's position: Boris clearly doesn't really want No Deal if he can avoid it; why not therefore allow one more roll of the dice?
If Boris cleans up in the GE then:
a) We (the EU) can work with him to finesse his current proposal.
b) He'll have a stable majority to get his Deal through the HoC.
c) We'll have more time to prepare for No Deal should all else fail.
Plus there's got to be an outside chance it all goes pear-shaped for Boris in the GE.
There's no real downside in extending for the EU.
Those counting on a Tory landslide have short memories, not that I expect an election this year:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1180718891242344453?s=19
Thanks for the reasonable reply, Your arguments does rely on there being an independent truth, removed from human frailties.
Alas, I doubt that. If you're coming round to faith in a God, congratulations. Otherwise I suspect your optimism may have consumed your common sense.
Anyway, que sera, sera. It's only politics, not common sense.
Main difference the Brexit Party up more than UKIP were and the LDs also higher.
Plus of course there will be no dementia tax gaffes etc from Boris unlike May
They surely aren't suggesting Nigel for a thoughtful critique of the workings of the EU.
The Tories have lost vote share. The lead comes because Labour have lost more.
And Swinson's Brexit policy (& her ridiculous statement about not accepting the result of a second referendum) will be subjected to rather more scrutiny than so far.
The LibDems have been, shall we say, extremely fortunate so far -- all the scrutiny has been on Tories and Labour.
If they give Boris some minor tweaks around the back stop, with no extensions, they can force the current HoC to accept it. 95% chance Boris's Deal passes, an optimistic 5% chance that the HoC goes for Revoke (which doesn't mean Brexit has gone away - quite the contrary) and 0% chance of No Deal.
THAT is the reality that the EU are looking at - as Boris will no doubt be telling them. Get it done by 31st October. For all our sakes. No extensions.
As I stated back in June...
But they seem unwilling to do so