politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories
There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold.
Comments
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If you live in a safe seat of any hue, casting a vote for UKIP will make no difference to the prospects of an Ed Miliband premiership. So the 51% may be absolutely correct in their assessment.0
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How aware are people of the marginality of their seat though. A poll of marginals asking this question would be of high psephological interest.antifrank said:If you live in a safe seat of any hue, casting a vote for UKIP will make no difference to the prospects of an Ed Miliband premiership. So the 51% may be absolutely correct in their assessment.
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Is there such a thing as a "fiercely contested local by-election"?0 -
Heraths figs in the NZ innings so far... tidy
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An interesting point about the Scottish independence referendum is that if Scotland votes Yes, Edinburgh will probably vote No if the 2010 general election results are anything to go by:
2010 general election, SNP share of vote:
Scotland: 19.9% [491,386 votes out of 2,465,722]
Edinburgh: 12.4% [27,700 votes out of 222,931]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/822.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/824.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/825.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/826.stm
Their share in Glasgow was also slightly below average:
Glasgow: 17.3% [39,702 votes out of 229,215]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/828.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/829.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/830.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/832.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/833.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/834.stm0 -
He's got another!
Herath 2.3-2-1-40 -
Interesting that in Glasgow, with 7 constituencies, there were only 6,284 more votes cast in 2010 than Edinburgh, which has 5 constituencies.0
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I wonder if possibly you are risking confounding (1) the SNP vote with indy, and (2) the SNP vote at a UK GE (replete with tactical voting) for the underlying sentiment as shown in a Scottish election. I hasten to admit that I don't know what the answer will be.The devo referendum shows a different pattern, at least for Glasgow. But that was a long time ago and in a different universe, it almost feels like.AndyJS said:An interesting point about the Scottish independence referendum is that if Scotland votes Yes, Edinburgh will probably vote No if the 2010 general election results are anything to go by:
2010 general election, SNP share of vote:
Scotland: 19.9% [491,386 votes out of 2,465,722]
Edinburgh: 12.4% [27,700 votes out of 222,931]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/822.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/824.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/825.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/826.stm
Their share in Glasgow was also slightly below average:
Glasgow: 17.3% [39,702 votes out of 229,215]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/828.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/829.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/830.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/832.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/833.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/834.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Vote_by_each_area
BTW, did anyone mention Mr Massie's latest Speccy piece, which advocates the Admiral Byng treatment for the unnamed minister?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2014/03/from-time-to-time-it-is-necessary-to-execute-a-government-minister-to-encourage-the-others-this-is-one-such-moment/
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Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....0 -
I can certainly imagine a Labour government doing just that. They were quite happy to sign the Lisbon treaty without asking the public first.SeanT said:That adds more doubt to the situation: English, Welsh and Ulster voters will be given a say on the rUK's fiscal settlement with Scotland. Indeed it is hard to believe any rUK government would go into a formal currency union with a foreign country WITHOUT asking the people in a referendum, first.
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On topic, as with OGH observation about "my constituency" making the question less abstract, so, as time goes by, will the concept of a Miliband premiership become.....one way, or the other.....0
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Iirc ICM ask a similar question for their VI polls.CarlottaVance said:On topic, as with OGH observation about "my constituency" making the question less abstract, so, as time goes by, will the concept of a Miliband premiership become.....one way, or the other.....
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You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
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Watching Rory Stewart's documentary on the Borders. Not impressed tbh.0
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In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.0
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I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
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Scrap trading update - now down just circa £1,100...
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Agree entirely with Massie. Though in the traditional Admiral Byng sense, not the McPoison corruption.....Carnyx said:
BTW, did anyone mention Mr Massie's latest Speccy piece, which advocates the Admiral Byng treatment for the unnamed minister?AndyJS said:An interesting point about the Scottish independence referendum is that if Scotland votes Yes, Edinburgh will probably vote No if the 2010 general election results are anything to go by:
2010 general election, SNP share of vote:
Scotland: 19.9% [491,386 votes out of 2,465,722]
Edinburgh: 12.4% [27,700 votes out of 222,931]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/822.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/824.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/825.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/826.stm
Their share in Glasgow was also slightly below average:
Glasgow: 17.3% [39,702 votes out of 229,215]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/828.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/829.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/830.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/832.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/833.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/834.stm
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2014/03/from-time-to-time-it-is-necessary-to-execute-a-government-minister-to-encourage-the-others-this-is-one-such-moment/
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" People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond."
Perhaps this preposterous man would like to choose the next US President on behalf of the American people.0 -
Erm, did England decide to play again but disguised as NZ?0
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You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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@SeanT
'Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland).'
An excellent opportunity for a private members bill to give it legal backing,in the event that any future government offers a currency union with Scotland then a referendum automatically kicks in.0 -
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T20 today.
2 matches, 4 innings. 72 overs and 4 balls bowled, 34 wickets fell, 400 runs scored.
Top individual and team scorers were the Netherlands.0 -
Excellent report, received by post a week ago. Some good facts and figures which will probably see light in wednesday's debate.isam said:
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NZ vs Sri Lanka
Ridiculous 2nd Inns
Williamson scored 42 out of 60-9
Herath took 5 for 3 in 3.3 overs0 -
Labour NEC decisions on selections...
Ellesmere Port & Neston (majority 9.8%): Open shortlist
Stirling (maj 17.9%): AWS0 -
The rogue minister put Faslane into play. On top of that, of course, you have to throw in rUK control over an independent Scotland's monetary and fiscal policy. There is plenty there to work with, surely, before you even start to talk about another referendum.SeanT said:
Quite. The Nats are dismayed by the idea of the rUK voters being given a direct say on currency union, as they know that answer would be NO WAY, HAMISH.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland). And they need to make this plain NOW.
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Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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Not even Ed is offering free tuition fees, prescriptions and £6000 per person on roads.Neil said:
Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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Salmond says no:SouthamObserver said:
The rogue minister put Faslane into play.SeanT said:
Quite. The Nats are dismayed by the idea of the rUK voters being given a direct say on currency union, as they know that answer would be NO WAY, HAMISH.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland). And they need to make this plain NOW.
Alex Salmond has denied that Trident nuclear weapons could stay in Scotland after independence as the fallout from a UK minister's anonymous briefing over sharing the pound intensified.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10732762/Alex-Salmond-We-wont-trade-Trident-position-for-the-pound.html
This is a good technical piece, which pre-dates Osborne's currency intervention, but is still worth reading:
http://www.maltinpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Lyddon-Consulting-Services-Independent-Report-into-the-fiscal-implications-of-Scottish-Independence-.pdf
The founder of Barrhead travel has just sent a copy to his employees:
The founder of Barrhead Travel has told his staff that a "Yes" vote in Scotland's independence referendum would be "a disaster".
Bill Munro sent a memo to staff about what he saw as the dangers of independence and accused the SNP of misleading voters.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26818227
The reaction on Facebook should come as no surprise:
https://www.facebook.com/barrhead.travel0 -
Ed isnt offering to outcompete all his neighbours on corporation tax / airport charges etc.. either. Give the Scots a chance to play you off the park before burying them.TGOHF said:
Not even Ed is offering free tuition fees, prescriptions and £6000 per person on roads.Neil said:
Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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Nobody knows what Ed is offering - least of all Ed.Neil said:
Ed isnt offering to outcompete all his neighbours on corporation tax / airport charges etc.. either. Give the Scots a chance to play you off the park before burying them.TGOHF said:
Not even Ed is offering free tuition fees, prescriptions and £6000 per person on roads.Neil said:
Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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I like how you instinctively think that rUK under Ed will outperform an independent Scotland though. You closet red, you.TGOHF said:
Nobody knows what Ed is offering - least of all Ed.Neil said:
Ed isnt offering to outcompete all his neighbours on corporation tax / airport charges etc.. either. Give the Scots a chance to play you off the park before burying them.TGOHF said:
Not even Ed is offering free tuition fees, prescriptions and £6000 per person on roads.Neil said:
Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...
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MikeK said:
Excellent report, received by post a week ago. Some good facts and figures which will probably see light in wednesday's debate.isam said:
For me the best analysis and forward plan for the UK exit comes not from UKIP but from Dr Richard North and the EUreferendum blog.MikeK said:
Excellent report, received by post a week ago. Some good facts and figures which will probably see light in wednesday's debate.isam said:
http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitPamphlet001.pdf0 -
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.0
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you only addressed half the points. What should Labour be doing to improve their frankly pathetic efforts to maintain the union.BobaFett said:
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.0 -
If 51% of UKIP supporters do not understand that their voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely, then they are probably too thick to be reachable.Casino_Royale said:Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.
It can make it equally likely per antifrank's point earlier, I suppose, if you live in a safe seat, but these strike me as seats where their votes are least likely to be cast.0 -
LOLCarnyx said:CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...
They spent two weeks shrieking about Osbrowne's incompetent posturing and all for nothing.
Remember the PB golden rule.
The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
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And if not too thick then probably too stubborn to respond to messaging like this!Bond_James_Bond said:
If 51% of UKIP supporters do not understand that their voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely, then they are probably too thick to be reachable.Casino_Royale said:Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.0 -
Rubbish, rUK voters used to be evenly split - they've shifted......as usual you have nothing constructive to offer....which is what you accuse Better Together of......BobaFett said:
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
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@BobaFett
on your four marginals, probablistic UNS theory says the Tories should expect to hold the following number of seats for various Labour leads (+ve is a Labour national lead)
10 0.1
9 0.2
8 0.2
7 0.3
6 0.4
5 0.5
4 0.6
3 0.7
2 0.9
1 1.0
0 1.2
-1 1.4
-2 1.6
-3 1.8
-4 2.0
-5 2.3
-6 2.5
-7 2.7
-8 2.9
-9 3.0
-10 3.2
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@Carlotta
I have already told you. Kick out the Tories, make Ozzy and Cam promise not to go within 100 miles of the Tweed and get Labour's Scottish mafia up there ASAP.
Meanwhile find the Tory idiot who leaked the currency story to the press and force him to listen to George Galloway's violin recital of La Traviata for 48 hours straight.0 -
Jesus when will people understand?Bond_James_Bond said:
If 51% of UKIP supporters do not understand that their voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely, then they are probably too thick to be reachable.Casino_Royale said:Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.
It can make it equally likely per antifrank's point earlier, I suppose, if you live in a safe seat, but these strike me as seats where their votes are least likely to be cast.
UKIP voters see Miliband and Cameron as left leaning, EU loving, progressives and it doesn't really matter which one of them it is that is saying NO to leaving the EU, NO to reinstating Grammar schools, YES to mass immigration etc etc
.. and as for the old chesnut of of UKIP voters voting for Cameron so he can do everything in his power to stop us leaving, even if he did grant a referendum, its like asking Doreen Lawrence to vote for the BNP because they are promising to put up a black candidate for Mayor of London if they win a majority, and giving her stick when she says "naff off".. people do have principles, we are not all political strategists/spinners0 -
Surely 'Vote Farage get little Ed' is a foolproof master strategy from the chumocracy?
It's not as if that kind of desperate posturing could ever be laughed at afterwards.
Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
How did that turn out again?
*chuckles*
0 -
While your Ribena stats are interesting you must realise that a shift does not equal salience.CarlottaVance said:
Rubbish, rUK voters used to be evenly split - they've shifted......as usual you have nothing constructive to offer....which is what you accuse Better Together of......BobaFett said:
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
I suspect most of the public don't even know what a currency union is.
0 -
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......
0 -
You seem to be confusing UKIP supporters, with Con>UKIP switchers.Bond_James_Bond said:
If 51% of UKIP supporters do not understand that their voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely, then they are probably too thick to be reachable.Casino_Royale said:Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.
It can make it equally likely per antifrank's point earlier, I suppose, if you live in a safe seat, but these strike me as seats where their votes are least likely to be cast.
0 -
You've been following the polling, I see.saddened said:
0 -
So when is Ed going to do that? And I'd sack the minister responsible.BobaFett said:@Carlotta
I have already told you. Kick out the Tories, make Ozzy and Cam promise not to go within 100 miles of the Tweed and get Labour's Scottish mafia up there ASAP.
Meanwhile find the Tory idiot who leaked the currency story to the press and force him to listen to George Galloway's violin recital of La Traviata for 48 hours straight.
0 -
Keep in mind one of the scottish tory surgers warned us all of the 'terrible backlash' from the voter and the press because of boundary changes getting booted.BobaFett said:
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
Sooner or later...
Probably..
0 -
My experience of most UKIP supporters is that they simply don't care. They think it makes no difference if Miliband or Cameron wins as they are 'both the same'.Bond_James_Bond said:
If 51% of UKIP supporters do not understand that their voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely, then they are probably too thick to be reachable.Casino_Royale said:Those UKIP numbers are concerning. Assuming I'm reading them correctly, if the Tories can only rely on 10% returning in the marginals (rather than 35% as I'd been working on) then they have a problem.
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.
It can make it equally likely per antifrank's point earlier, I suppose, if you live in a safe seat, but these strike me as seats where their votes are least likely to be cast.
I wouldn't go that far - and haven't made the jump that, say, Sean Fear has - but I don't think Cameron has delivered very much 'Conservative' for his supporters. In some respects, particularly in legislation, public culture and socio-cultural matters, he's extended/built upon New Labour's world view.
What would keep me (just) in the Conservative camp in a marginal is action on the deficit, education/welfare reform and the immigration cap. I don't expect the EU negotiations to amount to much, but this is at least making me think about benefits here too.
PS. Love the username!0 -
Indeed. Another major issue that was the talk of the town down at Sainsbury's cheese counter.Mick_Pork said:
Keep in mind one of the scottish tory surgers warned us all of the 'terrible backlash' from the voter and the press because of boundary changes getting booted.BobaFett said:
If you asked people if they were against Ribena changing their recipe they'd probably be 4-1 against. Doesn't mean they give a flying f--- about it.CarlottaVance said:
You'll find in rUK they are 2:1 against......You keep moaning about the Better Together campaign - what do you want Labour to do about it - they, and their voters are the weakest link.....BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
Sooner or later...
Probably..
Hmm.
0 -
In case you have forgotten the Tories are in power and Dave is PM.CarlottaVance said:
So when is Ed going to do that? And I'd sack the minister responsible.BobaFett said:@Carlotta
I have already told you. Kick out the Tories, make Ozzy and Cam promise not to go within 100 miles of the Tweed and get Labour's Scottish mafia up there ASAP.
Meanwhile find the Tory idiot who leaked the currency story to the press and force him to listen to George Galloway's violin recital of La Traviata for 48 hours straight.
0 -
I think you're mistakenly reading from the latest IRB rankings.CarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......0 -
you're the one advocating he keeps away and Labour ride to the rescue...Not me!BobaFett said:
In case you have forgotten the Tories are in power and Dave is PM.CarlottaVance said:
So when is Ed going to do that? And I'd sack the minister responsible.BobaFett said:@Carlotta
I have already told you. Kick out the Tories, make Ozzy and Cam promise not to go within 100 miles of the Tweed and get Labour's Scottish mafia up there ASAP.
Meanwhile find the Tory idiot who leaked the currency story to the press and force him to listen to George Galloway's violin recital of La Traviata for 48 hours straight.
0 -
UN 2012.......in any case it's a heck of a lot closer to 44 than 14..,,Neil said:
I think you're mistakenly reading from the latest IRB rankings.CarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......
0 -
I agree.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
No one will give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union.
Unfortunately for the Scottish people who don't give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union, it might come as quite a shock to them when they discover that a currency union is an effective loss of sovereignty. And to the Auld Enemy at that.
If of course as you say any of them can ever be bothered to find out.
ASalmond couldn't care less: Scotland will be independent at that point.0 -
I'm hoping for a yes vote. Sadly I think no will win. Either way I'm on a winner as watching Malcolm go in to meltdown if it's no would only be bettered by watching him go into meltdown following no currency union in the event of a yes.Neil said:0 -
I always thought, from a tactical point of view, the UK politicians saying "we'd have to have a referendum on whether Scotland keeps the pound" would've been a much shrewder move than what they actually did. It would've planted doubt in voters' minds while not looking like petty blackmail in the way their joint "ruling out" did.SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
Darling, for all his faults, has it right here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10733980/Scottish-independence-give-English-a-vote-on-sharing-currency.html
Now that stupid tosser ****** ******** in the Coalition has sowed doubt about currency union, the Better Together team need a fallback: all 3 coalition parties should confirm that they do not want a currency union, in their minds it will never happen, but should circumstances arise where it is conceivable - they would first ask permission of the rUK electorate in a referendum.
That adds more doubt to the situation: English, Welsh and Ulster voters will be given a say on the rUK's fiscal settlement with Scotland. Indeed it is hard to believe any rUK government would go into a formal currency union with a foreign country WITHOUT asking the people in a referendum, first.
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums. Of course voters in rUK would almost certainly say NO.
The unionists need to settle on this as their position, ASAP.
I think even most pro-independence Scottish people would accept that it would be reasonable to ask the rest of the UK if they were OK with a currency union would be reasonable. (I personally wouldn't have any problem with it.)0 -
I wonder if he booked his September 19 holiday with Barrhead travel..saddened said:
I'm hoping for a yes vote. Sadly I think no will win. Either way I'm on a winner as watching Malcolm go in to meltdown if it's no would only be bettered by watching him go into meltdown following no currency union in the event of a yes.Neil said:
0 -
"There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold.
I buy into that."
Sure. Most people think so, but just how many don't return to the fold will make all the difference. Because there's no way all of them are going back. It certainly doesn't need to be a huge amount for the kippers to do far better than their 3.1% in 2010 and have tory MPs frightened and upset in many marginal seats.
Of course the master strategy from the chumocracy was that Cameron's Cast Iron referendum Pledge would sort out the kippers because a referendum pledge always sorts things out.
Oops! 0 -
Darling is a loser , it is too late now the genie is out of the bottle , everybody knows they are a bunch of liars and cannot even keep it under their hats till the vote is over. Scotland do not want a currency union with a bankrupt England , the arrogant unionists are being played.SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
Darling, for all his faults, has it right here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10733980/Scottish-independence-give-English-a-vote-on-sharing-currency.html
Now that stupid tosser ****** ******** in the Coalition has sowed doubt about currency union, the Better Together team need a fallback: all 3 coalition parties should confirm that they do not want a currency union, in their minds it will never happen, but should circumstances arise where it is conceivable - they would first ask permission of the rUK electorate in a referendum.
That adds more doubt to the situation: English, Welsh and Ulster voters will be given a say on the rUK's fiscal settlement with Scotland. Indeed it is hard to believe any rUK government would go into a formal currency union with a foreign country WITHOUT asking the people in a referendum, first.
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums. Of course voters in rUK would almost certainly say NO.
The unionists need to settle on this as their position, ASAP.0 -
The Better Together team have repeatedly turned out to be a far more honest and reliable source of the legal position on a number of issues in the Indy Referendum than Alex Salmond. Right now, I wouldn't trust Salmond to tell me it was raining outside without checking for myself.Carnyx said:CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...0 -
Andy , why do you think it is only SNP that will vote YES, that is an incredibly stupid and flawed argument. YES is for Scotland not the SNP and will attract voters across the whole spectrum. It is Labour or Ex labour votes that will win it for YES.AndyJS said:An interesting point about the Scottish independence referendum is that if Scotland votes Yes, Edinburgh will probably vote No if the 2010 general election results are anything to go by:
2010 general election, SNP share of vote:
Scotland: 19.9% [491,386 votes out of 2,465,722]
Edinburgh: 12.4% [27,700 votes out of 222,931]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/822.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/824.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/825.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/826.stm
Their share in Glasgow was also slightly below average:
Glasgow: 17.3% [39,702 votes out of 229,215]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/828.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/829.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/830.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/832.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/833.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/834.stm0 -
You live in a dream world. We do not give a toss about rUK voters and any choice they may be given, they are irrelevant.SeanT said:
Quite. The Nats are dismayed by the idea of the rUK voters being given a direct say on currency union, as they know that answer would be NO WAY, HAMISH.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland). And they need to make this plain NOW.0 -
Likely it would be bankrupt England, after whining about us being debt free.TGOHF said:
Not even Ed is offering free tuition fees, prescriptions and £6000 per person on roads.Neil said:
Who would playing the role of Greece again?TGOHF said:
I think you are wrong. It will be like being in the Euro with just us and Greece.BobaFett said:In truth I doubt that many people give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union. And please no more referendums - we are not bloody Switzerland.
0 -
If it is anti Scotland and anti SNP , Carlotta is delightedCarnyx said:CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...0 -
Book your September 19 HoL with Barrhead Travel? :InnocentFace:malcolmg said:
If it is anti Scotland and anti SNP , Carlotta is delightedCarnyx said:CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...0 -
sadly they have no case or we would surely have heard it by now. Future in union is more poverty , more foodbanks , more pain, more nuclear missiles. That is all they have and it does not go down well.BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
0 -
You don't give a toss about your neighbours ?malcolmg said:
You live in a dream world. We do not give a toss about rUK voters and any choice they may be given, they are irrelevant.SeanT said:
Quite. The Nats are dismayed by the idea of the rUK voters being given a direct say on currency union, as they know that answer would be NO WAY, HAMISH.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland). And they need to make this plain NOW.
A strange beast this "civic nationalism".0 -
O/T - has anyone read between the lines on Osborne's announcement today?
We will have rock-low interest rates for another 5 years if the Conservatives (coalition) is returned to power. Targetting "full employment" - rather than inflation - gives him an excuse to get the BoE to target an unemployment rate well below 7%, and therefore keep interest rates low for much longer. Also he's neutered the low savings issue politically with his 4% pensioner bonds and huge ISA allowances.
So, if you're looking to go for a 3 year+ fix anytime soon on your mortgage, and pay the extra interest to match, I'd think twice.
Unless you think Labour will win of course.
0 -
Can you prove thatCarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......0 -
Hour long documentary on Ch4 now "Nigel Farage, Who Are You?"0
-
On the previous post it would have been helpful to know what proportion of UKIP voters were voting for UKIP and what proportion were voting against other parties. My guess is 80% for UKIP rather than against other parties.0
-
Caught being economical once again, you never learn.CarlottaVance said:
UN 2012.......in any case it's a heck of a lot closer to 44 than 14..,,Neil said:
I think you're mistakenly reading from the latest IRB rankings.CarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......0 -
Heres a positive case for the union:malcolmg said:
sadly they have no case or we would surely have heard it by now. Future in union is more poverty , more foodbanks , more pain, more nuclear missiles. That is all they have and it does not go down well.BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
Luckily for the Scottish people, they do not need to choose either option. Instead they have an exciting trump card up their sleeve:
keep GBP as the working currency
have debts denominated in GBP
enjoy the all-in-cost of funding through gilts thanks to GBP being a liquid reserve currency and to its owner being a AAA-rated name
benefit from the assurance that Scottish debts are underwritten by the rest of the UK (in exchange for which Scotland has to reciprocally underwrite the rest of the UK’s debts)
continue to discharge a disproportionately high share of the UK public sector workload in exchange for money
carry out a disproportionately high share of the UK pension and investment management workload also in exchange for money
enjoy benefits in terms of public spending that derive from economic growth wherever it occurs within the UK
http://www.maltinpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Lyddon-Consulting-Services-Independent-Report-into-the-fiscal-implications-of-Scottish-Independence-.pdf0 -
There will be no currency union. We will be left debt free using the pound initially before going to our own currency or euro depending on circumstances at some later date. UK will have 5 years to get Trident out and will be happy to keep all the debt as part of the deal.saddened said:
I'm hoping for a yes vote. Sadly I think no will win. Either way I'm on a winner as watching Malcolm go in to meltdown if it's no would only be bettered by watching him go into meltdown following no currency union in the event of a yes.Neil said:
0 -
I can google. You should try it sometime....malcolmg said:
Can you prove thatCarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......
0 -
Worse that that - 57th, between Iraq and Bangladesh:CarlottaVance said:
On what planet would Scotland be the "worlds 14th richest"?BobaFett said:If anyone believes the world's 14th richest country becoming independent would be a "disaster" they are a hyperbolic plum. Why haven't we learned our lesson? Make the case for the union. The scare stories don't work, they just make it worse.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......
'The latest figures we have for Scotland's GDP are for 2012, and including a share of UK offshore oil the figure is £145bn. This would put Scotland at about 57 in the UN's list of national GDP - between Iraq and Bangladesh.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-266141220 -
In the Survation polling we saw slightly different numbers across 5 constituencies.
In those polls 31% of all Ukip voters would vote Tory to stop Miliband, which would be pretty good as only 25% of the Ukip support in the constituencies came from people that voted Conservative in 2010.
46% of the those switching from Tory to Ukip said they would switch back to stop Miliband.0 -
He certainly did not , intelligent enough to book my own holidays. That prat has really put his foot into it by trying to browbeat his staff into voting NO. What a deadbeat and his data was incredibly dire , a 5 year old could prove it is mince. Using some Tory halfwits cretinous rants is par for the course for that type of unionist. How did the clown ever build a business, he must have had good staff as on the evidence he is not too bright.CarlottaVance said:
I wonder if he booked his September 19 holiday with Barrhead travel..saddened said:
I'm hoping for a yes vote. Sadly I think no will win. Either way I'm on a winner as watching Malcolm go in to meltdown if it's no would only be bettered by watching him go into meltdown following no currency union in the event of a yes.Neil said:0 -
Alice in Wonderland arrivesfitalass said:The Better Together team have repeatedly turned out to be a far more honest and reliable source of the legal position on a number of issues in the Indy Referendum than Alex Salmond. Right now, I wouldn't trust Salmond to tell me it was raining outside without checking for myself.
Carnyx said:CarlottaVance said:
I have - this sums it up well:Carnyx said:
You should read the piece. It does not bear the burden of its [edit: initial para].CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...0 -
Daily Mail - France's Socialist PM and entire government quit following electoral meltdown as Hollande set to hand top job to interior minister Manuel Valls
"France's Socialist Prime Minister resigned along with his entire government today following a local elections meltdown.
Jean-Marc Ayrault admitted that a vast swing to the right, including the extremist National Front, was down to him.
‘There is no getting away from it – this vote is a defeat for the government,’ said Mr Ayrault. ‘I take my part of the blame.’
He handed his resignation to President Francois Hollande, whose two years in power have seen him become the most unpopular head of state in recent French history.
All 38 of Mr Ayrault’s ministerial colleagues also quit ahead of a government reshuffle.
Mr Hollande is set to replace Mr Ayrault with Manuel Valls, the tough-talking Interior Minister who is fiercely anti-immigration."
-1 -
Alan, the referendum is about Scotland , just as nobody cares about any other country during a UK election. It will be YES and life will go on as normal , most people will be unaffected , apart from the troughers in Westminster.Alanbrooke said:
You don't give a toss about your neighbours ?malcolmg said:
You live in a dream world. We do not give a toss about rUK voters and any choice they may be given, they are irrelevant.SeanT said:
Quite. The Nats are dismayed by the idea of the rUK voters being given a direct say on currency union, as they know that answer would be NO WAY, HAMISH.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, but they do.......SeanT said:Yawn.
Back to Scotland:
And the Nats can hardly complain about there being too many referendums.
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland). And they need to make this plain NOW.
A strange beast this "civic nationalism".0 -
Tell you what malc if blokes who can create wealth and jobs are an embarassment to Scotland send them down here, we'd be delighted to have them.malcolmg said:
He certainly did not , intelligent enough to book my own holidays. That prat has really put his foot into it by trying to browbeat his staff into voting NO. What a deadbeat and his data was incredibly dire , a 5 year old could prove it is mince. Using some Tory halfwits cretinous rants is par for the course for that type of unionist. How did the clown ever build a business, he must have had good staff as on the evidence he is not too bright.CarlottaVance said:
I wonder if he booked his September 19 holiday with Barrhead travel..saddened said:
I'm hoping for a yes vote. Sadly I think no will win. Either way I'm on a winner as watching Malcolm go in to meltdown if it's no would only be bettered by watching him go into meltdown following no currency union in the event of a yes.Neil said:0
