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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories
There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold.
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Is there such a thing as a "fiercely contested local by-election"?
2-2-0-3
2010 general election, SNP share of vote:
Scotland: 19.9% [491,386 votes out of 2,465,722]
Edinburgh: 12.4% [27,700 votes out of 222,931]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/822.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/824.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/825.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/826.stm
Their share in Glasgow was also slightly below average:
Glasgow: 17.3% [39,702 votes out of 229,215]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/828.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/829.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/830.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/832.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/833.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/834.stm
Herath 2.3-2-1-4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Vote_by_each_area
BTW, did anyone mention Mr Massie's latest Speccy piece, which advocates the Admiral Byng treatment for the unnamed minister?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2014/03/from-time-to-time-it-is-necessary-to-execute-a-government-minister-to-encourage-the-others-this-is-one-such-moment/
People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland should not be given a formal say on whether an independent Scotland joins a currency union with the UK, according to Alex Salmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26366676
As John Curtice observed, Osborne's currency intervention may not have shifted opinion in Scotland, but it sure as heck has shifted it in rUK - from evenly balanced, to 2:1 against.
Up to the 18th September, only Scots' opinions matter.
After the 18th, they are irrelevant.....the other 92% of the UK decides.....
However, a Better Together spokesman said Mr Salmond was under pressure to spell out a "Plan B" on currency, and had "a bad habit of telling people in the rest of the UK what's in their best interests without going to the bother of asking them."
He added: "Recent polls have shown overwhelming opposition to a currency union if Scotland left the UK.
"There is a clear pattern emerging here. On one side you have the three UK parties saying a currency union won't happen and people in the rest of the UK supporting that. On the other side you have Alex Salmond saying they are all wrong and only he is right.
Clear enough?
Perhaps this preposterous man would like to choose the next US President on behalf of the American people.
Heraths final bowling analysis
3.3-2-3-5
18 dots from 21!!!
'Given the damage to the unionist cause from last week's gaffe, this now has to be the Unionist position: whatever happens, we will consult the British voter (ex Scotland).'
An excellent opportunity for a private members bill to give it legal backing,in the event that any future government offers a currency union with Scotland then a referendum automatically kicks in.
2 matches, 4 innings. 72 overs and 4 balls bowled, 34 wickets fell, 400 runs scored.
Top individual and team scorers were the Netherlands.
Ridiculous 2nd Inns
Williamson scored 42 out of 60-9
Herath took 5 for 3 in 3.3 overs
Ellesmere Port & Neston (majority 9.8%): Open shortlist
Stirling (maj 17.9%): AWS
Alex Salmond has denied that Trident nuclear weapons could stay in Scotland after independence as the fallout from a UK minister's anonymous briefing over sharing the pound intensified.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10732762/Alex-Salmond-We-wont-trade-Trident-position-for-the-pound.html
This is a good technical piece, which pre-dates Osborne's currency intervention, but is still worth reading:
http://www.maltinpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Lyddon-Consulting-Services-Independent-Report-into-the-fiscal-implications-of-Scottish-Independence-.pdf
The founder of Barrhead travel has just sent a copy to his employees:
The founder of Barrhead Travel has told his staff that a "Yes" vote in Scotland's independence referendum would be "a disaster".
Bill Munro sent a memo to staff about what he saw as the dangers of independence and accused the SNP of misleading voters.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26818227
The reaction on Facebook should come as no surprise:
https://www.facebook.com/barrhead.travel
That's a BT spokesperson. If you think that is a reliable source for Mr Salmond ...
http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitPamphlet001.pdf
That said, there is evidence of a greater UKIP squeeze in Con/Lab battlegrounds, but there doesn't have to be much in it to make a big difference. If, as I suspect, the difference between the Tories winning 305 and 285 seats is a few 'too close to call' super/hyper-marginals, then UKIP getting a few hundred extra votes ( or not) in each could make all the difference.
It can make it equally likely per antifrank's point earlier, I suppose, if you live in a safe seat, but these strike me as seats where their votes are least likely to be cast.
They spent two weeks shrieking about Osbrowne's incompetent posturing and all for nothing.
Remember the PB golden rule.
The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
on your four marginals, probablistic UNS theory says the Tories should expect to hold the following number of seats for various Labour leads (+ve is a Labour national lead)
10 0.1
9 0.2
8 0.2
7 0.3
6 0.4
5 0.5
4 0.6
3 0.7
2 0.9
1 1.0
0 1.2
-1 1.4
-2 1.6
-3 1.8
-4 2.0
-5 2.3
-6 2.5
-7 2.7
-8 2.9
-9 3.0
-10 3.2
I have already told you. Kick out the Tories, make Ozzy and Cam promise not to go within 100 miles of the Tweed and get Labour's Scottish mafia up there ASAP.
Meanwhile find the Tory idiot who leaked the currency story to the press and force him to listen to George Galloway's violin recital of La Traviata for 48 hours straight.
UKIP voters see Miliband and Cameron as left leaning, EU loving, progressives and it doesn't really matter which one of them it is that is saying NO to leaving the EU, NO to reinstating Grammar schools, YES to mass immigration etc etc
.. and as for the old chesnut of of UKIP voters voting for Cameron so he can do everything in his power to stop us leaving, even if he did grant a referendum, its like asking Doreen Lawrence to vote for the BNP because they are promising to put up a black candidate for Mayor of London if they win a majority, and giving her stick when she says "naff off".. people do have principles, we are not all political strategists/spinners
It's not as if that kind of desperate posturing could ever be laughed at afterwards.
Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
How did that turn out again?
*chuckles*
I suspect most of the public don't even know what a currency union is.
It would tie for 44th with Portugal.......
Sooner or later...
Probably..
I wouldn't go that far - and haven't made the jump that, say, Sean Fear has - but I don't think Cameron has delivered very much 'Conservative' for his supporters. In some respects, particularly in legislation, public culture and socio-cultural matters, he's extended/built upon New Labour's world view.
What would keep me (just) in the Conservative camp in a marginal is action on the deficit, education/welfare reform and the immigration cap. I don't expect the EU negotiations to amount to much, but this is at least making me think about benefits here too.
PS. Love the username!
Hmm.
No one will give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union.
Unfortunately for the Scottish people who don't give a toss whether Scotland has a currency union, it might come as quite a shock to them when they discover that a currency union is an effective loss of sovereignty. And to the Auld Enemy at that.
If of course as you say any of them can ever be bothered to find out.
ASalmond couldn't care less: Scotland will be independent at that point.
I think even most pro-independence Scottish people would accept that it would be reasonable to ask the rest of the UK if they were OK with a currency union would be reasonable. (I personally wouldn't have any problem with it.)
I buy into that."
Sure. Most people think so, but just how many don't return to the fold will make all the difference. Because there's no way all of them are going back. It certainly doesn't need to be a huge amount for the kippers to do far better than their 3.1% in 2010 and have tory MPs frightened and upset in many marginal seats.
Of course the master strategy from the chumocracy was that Cameron's Cast Iron referendum Pledge would sort out the kippers because a referendum pledge always sorts things out.
Oops!
A strange beast this "civic nationalism".
We will have rock-low interest rates for another 5 years if the Conservatives (coalition) is returned to power. Targetting "full employment" - rather than inflation - gives him an excuse to get the BoE to target an unemployment rate well below 7%, and therefore keep interest rates low for much longer. Also he's neutered the low savings issue politically with his 4% pensioner bonds and huge ISA allowances.
So, if you're looking to go for a 3 year+ fix anytime soon on your mortgage, and pay the extra interest to match, I'd think twice.
Unless you think Labour will win of course.
Luckily for the Scottish people, they do not need to choose either option. Instead they have an exciting trump card up their sleeve:
keep GBP as the working currency
have debts denominated in GBP
enjoy the all-in-cost of funding through gilts thanks to GBP being a liquid reserve currency and to its owner being a AAA-rated name
benefit from the assurance that Scottish debts are underwritten by the rest of the UK (in exchange for which Scotland has to reciprocally underwrite the rest of the UK’s debts)
continue to discharge a disproportionately high share of the UK public sector workload in exchange for money
carry out a disproportionately high share of the UK pension and investment management workload also in exchange for money
enjoy benefits in terms of public spending that derive from economic growth wherever it occurs within the UK
http://www.maltinpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Lyddon-Consulting-Services-Independent-Report-into-the-fiscal-implications-of-Scottish-Independence-.pdf
'The latest figures we have for Scotland's GDP are for 2012, and including a share of UK offshore oil the figure is £145bn. This would put Scotland at about 57 in the UN's list of national GDP - between Iraq and Bangladesh.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26614122
In those polls 31% of all Ukip voters would vote Tory to stop Miliband, which would be pretty good as only 25% of the Ukip support in the constituencies came from people that voted Conservative in 2010.
46% of the those switching from Tory to Ukip said they would switch back to stop Miliband.
"France's Socialist Prime Minister resigned along with his entire government today following a local elections meltdown.
Jean-Marc Ayrault admitted that a vast swing to the right, including the extremist National Front, was down to him.
‘There is no getting away from it – this vote is a defeat for the government,’ said Mr Ayrault. ‘I take my part of the blame.’
He handed his resignation to President Francois Hollande, whose two years in power have seen him become the most unpopular head of state in recent French history.
All 38 of Mr Ayrault’s ministerial colleagues also quit ahead of a government reshuffle.
Mr Hollande is set to replace Mr Ayrault with Manuel Valls, the tough-talking Interior Minister who is fiercely anti-immigration."