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NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.

Indeed plus US general and presidential elections are always in November

Nigelb said:

Another New Hampshire poll showing Warren in the lead.

Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?

Sanders then endorses Warren, making Warren effectively the nominee and the most left liberal Democratic candidate for president since George McGovern in 1972 against Nixon and we all know how that went for the Democrats! McGovern also beat a centrist former VP in the 1972 Democratic primary, Hubert Humphrey, who would have given Nixon a tighter race

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MarqueeMark said:

Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.

You have to remember that the people making this decision on the EU side are politicians and will be making their decision for political reasons.

Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.

They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)

Risk of No Deal is non-existent if they grant us no further extensions. Hell, we've even passed a law to prevent it.....all those MPs couldn't just be virtue sgnalling, surely?

No further extension - and the Brexit saga gets put to bed for good by 31st October. Pretty much on the deal they negotiated with May. Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?

The problem for no-deal apologists is that it is very much not "put to bed" if we leave without a deal on 31st October. It will be the beginning of woes, and we will end up in a very very weak position to try and attempt endless mini-deals. Not "put to bed" at all. Simplistic claptrap on a par with all the other simplistic claptrap that leaders of Leave have tried to hoodwink the nation with.

Your comprehension skills not at their finest in the early morning, are they?

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.

Indeed plus US general and presidential elections are always in November

Early November

AlastairMeeks said:

Those dates, particularly 21 November, are very hard to reconcile with the statutory timetable. There must be 25 working days as a minimum in the election campaign (five weeks). If the two main parties don't agree - and agreement seems fairly unlikely - you have to add another two weeks in for a vote of no confidence. For 21 November, that means a vote of no confidence today or tomorrow.

Yes, the theory is that the main parties do agree once Oct 31 is thwarted. I agree with Casino that activists are always being geared up, but the unanimity about those precise dates was very striking. DYOR though!

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

A referendum is going to require a general election win by a party/parties pledging this. There has been no appetite for it in Westminster, basically because nobody can agree the question to be asked. Any referendum prior to an election risks a mass boycott by Leavers, saying they will wait to vote in the general election. The EU might not worry about the second referendum having no democratic legitimacy, but it stores a mass of problems domestically when it gets labelled the Cheats Charter.

Leavers will boycott it if they think they're going to lose it, and if they lose it they'll complain about its democratic legitimacy forever. They'll call it something like the Cheat's Charter, only snappier. This is equally true whether it's somebody's manifesto commitment or not.

Well 28% boycotted the last one!

Nigelb said:

Another New Hampshire poll showing Warren in the lead.

Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?

Trumpinomics may well be hitting the buffers this Fall too, worst manufacturing forecasts in a decade. Pretty grim in the RoW too.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/economy/ism-manufacturing/index.html

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:

Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?

Anybody who doesn't want to give Boris a massive victory.

If the Project is as shallow as that.....

Well it has been as shallow as that for the tories who have only ever done anything in the parties interest.

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

They are foolish and playing with fire. We could easily be looking at 1983. Are we ready for 5-10 years of Boris majority government?

I'm getting limited news but it feels in this contest of Johnson V The Rest that Johnson's winning. If Parliament is sitting they're not registering while Johnson is wall-to-wall and usually accompanied by a cheering mob. If radio 4 hasn't gone native or this is the calm before the storm we're looking at a Trumpian future.

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1179295383782088704

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1179305077967851520

TGOHF2 said:

Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal

HYUFD said:

The FTPA only applies if Boris is still PM in which case Labour would want a general election if Boris has agreed to extend past October 31st as the Tory vote will have collapsed to the Brexit Party putting Labour in front by default.

With many of the opinion polls Labour would still not be in the lead even if the Conservative + Brexit Party vote was evenly split between the two parties.

I'm not convinced that Labour will want a general election with Nigel Farage leading the polls.

dyedwoolie said:

TGOHF2 said:

Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal

Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

Another New Hampshire poll showing Warren in the lead.

Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?

Trumpinomics may well be hitting the buffers this Fall too, worst manufacturing forecasts in a decade. Pretty grim in the RoW too.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/economy/ism-manufacturing/index.html

UK's worst run of manufacturing figures since 2009.

2012

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/manufacturing-pmi

TGOHF2 said:

malcolmg said:

SquareRoot said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF2 said:

Least surprising outcome ever https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/02/alcohol-sales-rise-near-scottish-border-after-minimum-pricing

Big deal a handful of cheapskates desperate to save a few pennies crossed the border. Key point is that sales in all Scotland have dropped and are all of the crazy high alcohol content garbage drunk by losers. Early days but it appears to actually be working and we will see the results after the 5 year trial. Trail blazing policy yet again from the SNP.

Its hoolocks Malcy, the under sales are being met by sales in England. Actual drop probably closer to zero.

Rubbish , it is a handful of saddo's at the border, Anyone travelling more than a few mile would be paying more and the borders are not exactly well populated. No-one and I mean no-one is travelling from populated areas of Scotland to save a few pennies. The punters who drink Frosty Jack do not have access to transport given they have trouble enough walking never mind driving.
For any normal person there has been NO change in prices whatsoever.
My wine is still the same £10 - £15 a bottle and craft beer is exactly same price as always.

No of units sold have gone up both sides of the border - Nats clinging to some dodgy survey rather than real retail figures.

Harry, I actually live in Scotland , I don't rubbish it from afar. It has had no impact on normal every day people whatsoever. It may have impacted some piss artists and ne'er do wells but for most people it has no impact. Anything is worth a try to get the heavy drinkers of cheap muck to try and turn their lives around.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3455232/frosty-jacks-cider-sales-scotland-70-down-minimum-price/
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2866302/cider-sales-plummet-scotland-minimum-pricing-alcohol/

Anyone know what time Boris's speech to conference is happening?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The FTPA only applies if Boris is still PM in which case Labour would want a general election if Boris has agreed to extend past October 31st as the Tory vote will have collapsed to the Brexit Party putting Labour in front by default.

With many of the opinion polls Labour would still not be in the lead even if the Conservative + Brexit Party vote was evenly split between the two parties.

I'm not convinced that Labour will want a general election with Nigel Farage leading the polls.

Farage won't be leading the polls unless Boris agrees to extend and send the letter, which he won't at most a civil servant will do it if Boris refuses

From the news this morning anyway Corbyn and McDonnell have said they will call a VONC if Boris has not agreed a Deal with the EU by the end of the EU council on 17th October, Boris then likely loses that VONC and with no alternative PM agreed within 14 days as is likely we would then be in a general election campaign

MarqueeMark said:

Anyone know what time Boris's speech to conference is happening?

Dominic says at 11:40am .... Clashing with PMQ's and the Rabb C Nesbit/Russ Abbott show.

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anyone know what time Boris's speech to conference is happening?

Dominic says at 11:40am .... Clashing with PMQ's and the Rabb C Nesbit/Russ Abbott show.

Thanks Jack.

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Vain lying PM prefers breaking his word rather than being shortest serving PM in history shocker.

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

They are foolish and playing with fire. We could easily be looking at 1983. Are we ready for 5-10 years of Boris majority government?

I'm getting limited news but it feels in this contest of Johnson V The Rest that Johnson's winning. If Parliament is sitting they're not registering while Johnson is wall-to-wall and usually accompanied by a cheering mob. If radio 4 hasn't gone native or this is the calm before the storm we're looking at a Trumpian future.

The opposition has a weak hand and is split. The hung parliament is deceptive. Anyone not signed up to Boris and the populist right need to prepare for the long haul. Everything could be about to change. It took 14 years to recover from 1983.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will and Boris will campaign on Brexit Deal or No Deal with a Tory majority

Surely it will just be “no deal” if the EU have already rejected his “final offer” today?

If he wins a Tory majority with no need for the DUP Boris would go for the Withdrawal Agreement with just a NI only backstop

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will and Boris will campaign on Brexit Deal or No Deal with a Tory majority

Surely it will just be “no deal” if the EU have already rejected his “final offer” today?

If he wins a Tory majority with no need for the DUP Boris would go for the Withdrawal Agreement with just a NI only backstop

So its not the “final offer” then. Maybe he was mistaken.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

From the thread:
"Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

I agree, but it understates the position. It should read "..it is the opposition leader ALONE who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

The FTPA has turned out to be an utterly bonkers piece of legislation.

But that isn’t the case. Boris is free to resign and then no confidence the minority Labour government, resulting in a GE.

Looks like it could be a very long three Test series for South Africa in India. Seven sixes in the first two sessions.

TGOHF2 said:

Least surprising outcome ever https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/02/alcohol-sales-rise-near-scottish-border-after-minimum-pricing

Yes, minimum pricing lowered alcohol consumption. Good to see the legislation having the intended effect.

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will and Boris will campaign on Brexit Deal or No Deal with a Tory majority

Surely it will just be “no deal” if the EU have already rejected his “final offer” today?

If he wins a Tory majority with no need for the DUP Boris would go for the Withdrawal Agreement with just a NI only backstop

If he wins a Tory majority there's no need to do that. He can force the EU to choose between Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, or No Deal including no backstop.

Either way the backstop would be gone. Not NI only.

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

I've predicted that all along! Pin the blame on others and rally Brexiteers that you're the one person able to overcome the treacherous Remainer MPs, the courts etc

This is the game Boris and the Tories are playing

https://twitter.com/SimonUbsdell/status/1178951174973730816

It won't end well for anyone.

Gallowgate said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

From the thread:
"Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

I agree, but it understates the position. It should read "..it is the opposition leader ALONE who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

The FTPA has turned out to be an utterly bonkers piece of legislation.

But that isn’t the case. Boris is free to resign and then no confidence the minority Labour government, resulting in a GE.

But he doesnt want to. Its not fair!

MarqueeMark said:

nico67 said:

Even if the EU could make concessions they have zero confidence it could get through the Commons .

Utter bollocks. If there is no extension, then whatever the deal is by that point gets through before the end of October. End of.

Take back control!

TGOHF2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

TGOHF2 said:

Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal

Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?

Arithmetic would suggest it would be closer than any or May’s attempts - possibly even pass.

Would certainly pass if the Benn act is debunked in court.

The relevant question is who voted for the Brady amendment that would now refuse to vote for an improved deal (and vice versa)? Brady passed by 317 to 301 last time.

The Tory rebels that voted against Brady were:

Allen
Bebb
Clarke
Grieve
Lee
Morris
Soubry
Wallaston

Gyimah, Greening, Jo Johnson, Sandbach, Laing all abstained, as did Redwood.

You can certainly add Gyimah to the Against column now. Sandback might be tempted by the return of the whip. I doubt Greening and Jo would vote against at this point and might just abstain again. Don't know anything about Laing. Redwood might be persuaded to vote For this time rather than abstain. So roughly where you were on that group.

Of the rest of the Tory 21, they all previously voted for Brady. Some probably only did so to keep ministerial / cabinet jobs and would rather rot than give Boris a win. But I do wonder how many of the remaining 16 would be willing to complete the kamikaze of their careers, when there's a deal to vote for and the prospect of getting the whip back. Gauke, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Stewart etc...

Labour rebels voting For were:

Austin
Barron
Fitzpatrick
Godsiff
Hoey
Mann
Stringer

With a further 8 Labour abstaining. The Labour side would likely tip more in favour of the Deal given the likes of Flint would probably go from Abstain to Yes and Kinnock a flip from No to Yes.

I'm not persuaded that the vote would even be that close, I think if the Irish go for it then it clears the Commons.

logical_song said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

I've predicted that all along! Pin the blame on others and rally Brexiteers that you're the one person able to overcome the treacherous Remainer MPs, the courts etc

But how does the election get called?

The opposition can't be cowards forever and the longer they are cowards the more damage it will do to them.

If they succeed in forcing an extension and the public rightly blame them not Boris and then Boris calls for an election and they refuse it again and refuse a VONC again they are going to look utterly, utterly absurd.

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will

Oh well in that case the electorate definitely won't hold it against him. Maybe he'll cross his fingers behind his back for added political effect

The electorate are not idiots and will hold it against the MPs who forced the extension.

anothernick said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

HYUFD told us yesterday on here that Johnson would resign rather than extend.

HYUFD says a lot of stuff.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

From the thread:
"Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

I agree, but it understates the position. It should read "..it is the opposition leader ALONE who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

The FTPA has turned out to be an utterly bonkers piece of legislation.

It's not the legislation that's the problem. It's the cretinous approach by a PM who acts like he has a 100 seat majority when he doesn't.
Parliament decides whether there's a general election. The PM could VONC his own government or make time in the Commons for other parties to bring such a vote as Theresa May allowed less than a year ago.
Boris has choices here: to get the election he has to run the gauntlet of a VONC. He isn't pursuing the VONC so it makes you wonder what he's afraid of. AS far as I can tell it's one or more of the following:
- he's afraid of the election itself
- he's afraid the parliament can form a stable government without him
- he's afraid that his own party will turn against him

I think the third one is a strong candidate, but the the first two are also weighing on him.
Doesn't he look tired?

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anyone know what time Boris's speech to conference is happening?

Dominic says at 11:40am .... Clashing with PMQ's and the Rabb C Nesbit/Russ Abbott show.

Gives me an idea. "Celebrity Prime Minister's Questions". Saturday nights at 9pm on ITV1. Cowell in the Speaker's chair, Bercow as a sort of celebrity politics referee.

After a series of knockout rounds (including the likes of that guy off Emmerdale, that woman off Strictly, that guy from Homes Under The Hammer, those two faded popstars and that person from Instagram you've never heard of but has 12 billion followers) debating in the actual HoC in front of a studio audience, the winner gets to lead a minor UK political party (the Independent Group for Change).

Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will

Oh well in that case the electorate definitely won't hold it against him. Maybe he'll cross his fingers behind his back for added political effect

The electorate are not idiots and will hold it against the MPs who forced the extension.

You don't think the electorate will mind that Boris made a promise over and over which was obviously impossible to keep, then failed to keep it?

No. I think the Brexit-supporting electorate will see that the opposition MPs are the obstructionists, that Boris is on their side, that Labour and the Lib Dems want to Remain and that only a Tory victory will allow their Brexit vote to be honoured.

And they'd be right.

Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also want this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

EDIT: So good I thought people might want it twice.

Noo said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

From the thread:
"Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

I agree, but it understates the position. It should read "..it is the opposition leader ALONE who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

The FTPA has turned out to be an utterly bonkers piece of legislation.

It's not the legislation that's the problem. It's the cretinous approach by a PM who acts like he has a 100 seat majority when he doesn't.
Parliament decides whether there's a general election. The PM could VONC his own government or make time in the Commons for other parties to bring such a vote as Theresa May allowed less than a year ago.
Boris has choices here: to get the election he has to run the gauntlet of a VONC. He isn't pursuing the VONC so it makes you wonder what he's afraid of. AS far as I can tell it's one or more of the following:
- he's afraid of the election itself
- he's afraid the parliament can form a stable government without him
- he's afraid that his own party will turn against him

I think the third one is a strong candidate, but the the first two are also weighing on him.
Doesn't he look tired?

What are you talking about? The opposition hasn't tabled a VONC. You can't make time for the parties to bring such a vote until they table one.

GIN1138 said:

If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it?)

It would ruin Christmas.

Philip_Thompson said:

You can't make time for the parties to bring such a vote until they table one.

Yes you can.

Another Brexiteer who doesn't know how Parliament works

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

You can't make time for the parties to bring such a vote until they table one.

Yes you can.

Another Brexiteer who doesn't know how Parliament works

But the opposition have ruled out tabling such a motion. What is Boris supposed to do "we are giving time here for a motion from the opposition they've said they're not voting for" "we are not putting this motion forward, we haven't called it" *tumbleweed*

May provided time for a confidence vote only after Corbyn called for one, not beforehand.

GIN1138 said:

kinabalu said:

Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?

Because they do not think they will do very well.
Would you go into a fight if you knew , you would get badly beaten ?

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1179308388934717440

This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.

Boris won't extend, a civil servant will

Oh well in that case the electorate definitely won't hold it against him. Maybe he'll cross his fingers behind his back for added political effect

The electorate are not idiots and will hold it against the MPs who forced the extension.

You don't think the electorate will mind that Boris made a promise over and over which was obviously impossible to keep, then failed to keep it?

No. I think the Brexit-supporting electorate will see that the opposition MPs are the obstructionists, that Boris is on their side, that Labour and the Lib Dems want to Remain and that only a Tory victory will allow their Brexit vote to be honoured.

And they'd be right.

It must represent the lesser of two evils for him. He and his government could resign. The plus side is he is sticking to the courage of his convictions, he will not ask for an extension at any cost. The negative side is he's effectively saying he's beat, he can't do it, he's out of options, he can't deliver what he said.

If he did that he could still win the subsequent election, but the optics of it are probably worse than shouting out "I was forced! The courts and the parliament is against me!"

I'm sure neither option especially appeals to him but I can see extending and then fighting an election on that basis as the least bad option.