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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the betting moves to the general election taking place later rather than sooner
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https://www.scotsman.com/news/crime/scottish-court-to-decide-whether-boris-johnson-can-be-jailed-over-no-deal-brexit-1-5015160
One risk is that, like the countdown to the First World War, no-one is truly in command of events.
I'm not sure I believe it though, I think he just has a lot of sex and corruption scandals, so whichever word he uses tends to displace one.
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1179120461856292871
I'd guess the Bus thing is more traditional political psychology. What did you think of 5 years ago when you heard Bus in the context of Boris? The new Routemaster.
But after 2016? "Lies" on the side of a bus.
Now? An idiosyncratic hobby (recency effect) and the Routemaster (primacy effect). Job done.
I’d guess that if it feels it has something it can sponsor (with DUP support), it would pass. The Rorys of this world would surely rather swallow their pride and vote for it in return for the whip being restored, than losing at the election.
Where does such a scenario leave the date for the next election? 2022?
This, and the month market, are currently my biggest open bets. I’m expecting to collect.
So I have been thinking we are going to have an election pretty soon, I suppose they could change their mind. Maybe Johnson doesn't want it after we extend or the SNP and Corbyn decide to go for a referendum first but I got the feeling they all wanted the election (after extension in SNP and Corbyn's case)
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/463948-poll-just-40-percent-of-republicans-say-trump-mentioned
Just 4 in 10 Republicans say they think President Trump discussed an investigation into Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden during a phone call with Ukraine's president, despite Trump acknowledging having done so, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
The survey, which was released Tuesday, found that 40 percent of Republican respondents said Trump "probably did" raise the idea of an investigation into Biden and Biden's son over unsubstantiated allegations of corruption during a July 25 conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, 29 percent of Republicans said Trump "probably did not" mention an investigation into Biden.
Details here:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_100119.pdf/
Note that 40% of respondents are happy to believe Trump’s counterallegations about Biden, for which there is pretty scant evidence:
Turnouts will be lower. There’s a far heightened chance of weather conditions having a major influence (or in winter even jeopardising the election itself).
They’re just all round bad ideas, unless absolutely unavoidable.
I’ve been a consistent layer of a GE and indeed laid a large chunk when it traded as low as 1.07, which was crazy. My average lay price is about 1.27 overall.
If it comes off (and I’m expecting it to do so) it will be my second largest political bet win ever, behind GE2015, and near enough a four-figure profit.
Exciting.
As they expire the markets should move accordingly and, if they don’t, there is opportunity.
If this deal passes then Jezza’s appetite for an election will er diminish somewhat.
Below evens mid month?
Curiously perhaps the only senario where an early December 2019 election makes sense is if Boris has forced through a No Deal somehow. The temptation will be to cut and run before the impact of the economic shock is felt. The data is deteriorating as it is. I just don't see how No Deal happens given there is a blocking majority in the Commons when it's hypothetical never mind days away. But it needs to be priced in as a risk.
This has been the worst performing and most shambolic Parliament in my lifetime. I think those who bet on them not being in any rush to face their employers are on to a good thing.
If we have a bad winter then voting patterns could be even more unusual than the current polling suggests.
In due course a slimline government will replace this one. Then I expect Parliament will work considerably better without the need for an election.
Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
It’s light enough in the morning and late afternoon to vote, and the weather generally isn’t too bad. It also doesn’t clash with Easter.
If a caretaker Government takes office instead and goes for a referendum, of course, then that might not be held until April/May, and the GE that follows perhaps not until late June or early July.
Naughty boys were shepherds. Very naughty boys were shepherds without crooks.
Which raises an interesting question relevant to this topic. How does Boris plan to get his budget through the Commons? Is he going to break his record of losing every vote?
So the extension to be offered by the EU will be for a general election to be held. But they can read the polls like anybody else. They are seeing a significant likelihood of a Tory Party winning seats, perhaps a majority, perhaps still a minority with DUP support. How does that get them any further forward? It solves nothing. The incoming Commission in November still has to deal with the shitty Brexit problem on their watch. They would much prefer this is Problem Belong Previous Regime. No further extensions means Problem Belong Britain. And almost certainly delivers the deal they have already done rather than No Deal.
Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.
We had a very inclusive Nativity in 1966 - even if the visitors to the Baby Jesus were tooled up.....
Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.
They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)
End of March 2020 is probably more realistic though, if there is any extension at all. I am not convinced there will be one agreed by the EU at all.
I can't act for shit but I got the whole flea-ridden donkey thing down and by the time I was done nobody was paying any attention to the baby jesus or whatever, and the entire audience was itching.
Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
Maybe 10 months to end of August 2020?
And that’d be conditional, from the EU’s perspective, on a GE or a referendum solving the UK Parliamentary gridlock.
That bloody band seem to get everywhere.
No further extension - and the Brexit saga gets put to bed for good by 31st October. Pretty much on the deal they negotiated with May. Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/01/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/singapore-fake-news-law-come-force-wednesday-rights-groups-worry-stifle-free-speech/
Singapore is about to introduce a law against “fake news” that rights groups have warned may stifle free speech and opposition politicians have said could give the government too much power as elections loom.
The law was passed earlier this year after a public consultation. It will take effect on Wednesday, according to a government notice.
The legislation will require online media platforms, including social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, to carry corrections or remove content that the government considers to be false.
Individuals deemed to have maliciously spread false information on the web damaging to the public interest face jail terms of up to 10 years. Media platforms that fail to comply with the law face fines of up to $1 million Singaporean dollars ($730,600).
The bill is called the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, but is commonly referred to as the fake news law.
The People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since its independence over half a century ago...
This will be the new line , we were forced to do it .
I'll get my (wool) coat ....
And the Tories are threatening civil unrest again
Activists are pumped and primed to go any time in any weather, but represent the most motivated and politically driven part of the population. They’re used as directed cannon fodder by the main party leaders, and prepped accordingly.
They’re not normal people and are prone to believing their own hype.
E.g. "4. What happens if he decides to squat in Number 10?" - on current numbers he can be VoNC'ed at any time, leading to a GE, rather than a return of BoJo (who will be toast by then anyway).
Bethlehem LibDems Winning Here.
Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?
Even if you think the HoC wouldn't have the nerve for that, the EU will know it's an option when they consider whether to grant an extension or not.
If Boris has refused to extend Labour will either have to force him out by a VONC in which case if no alternative PM is found within 14 days as seems likely at present there has to be a general election anyway or if Boris has resigned rather than be forced by the courts to see his Government implement the Benn Act and extend then again even if an alternative PM is agreed they are likely to lose a VONC straight after extension as they will be reliant on Tory rebel and LD votes or if no alternative PM is agreed a general election is likely.
So all the odds favour a November or December general election, so OGH I would not count on picking up those winnings