politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Noo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Define work.

People from across the world still get here so something must be working even if other bits can be improved. If we can stop relying upon the crutch of free movement then we will be better motivated to fix any flaws with our system that impede the creme de la creme from coming.

Its rather bigoted of @Noo to consider [primarily white] Europeans to be the "creme de la creme" we need to be attracting, rather than the creme de la creme of the entire world whether that be Asians, North or South Americans, Africans or indeed Europeans.

You really are a thick twat aren't you?

At no point did I say that Europeans are the creme de la creme. I said reducing the talent pool of easy hires from 28 to 1 country will be detrimental to attracting the creme de la creme here.
As far as I can tell, the proposals won't change the barriers to those coming from outside the EU, but will significantly increase the barriers for those from within the rest of the EU. That is an increase in the difficulty of hiring.

Meanwhile, other EU countries are not raising their barrier to hiring, which means they will become more competitive in terms of hiring and investment.

It's sad that you had to make a baseless accusation based on what you thought I was saying rather than what I actually said. But I forgive you, because it looks a lot like you were being a cretin rather than being malicious. But you should still apologise.

We are not reducing the talent pool from 28 to 1 country. We are taking steps to liberalise migration in the right areas to expand the talent pool to 195 countries.

28 countries do not trump 195 countries. Until you come to me with a reason why we need to discriminate against Singaporeans and Chinese in order to get the world's best people, all I detect from you is racism.

I thought calling another poster a "twat" brought down the ban hammer? Or is it a case of It's OK If You're A Remainer?

It's ok because it's true.

RobD said:

nico67 said:

humbugger said:

Good evening all.

Interesting exchange downthread regarding nico67's comments about Priti Patel and the subsequent accusations the comments were racist. I've no idea whether nico67 is racist or not (I hope not), but the exchange illustrated how easy it is to be a little clumsy with words thereby exposing oneself to allegations of an ism of some sort. Twitter is of course full of such examples.

It's also the case that malicious allegations of any sort can be very difficult to disprove, especially in the short term. Witness those against Leon Brittain. Men in particular are most vulnerable to such allegations.

My comments were taken the wrong way . My point was I detest Patel and basically it would be great if she left the country, if she hadn’t been Home Secretary I wouldn’t have mentioned deportation as it’s not something in relation to her job . If say Patel’s job was taken by IDS I would have said I hope he deports himself merely to highlight I think the country would be a better place with him out of it .

Anyway just thought I’d clear that up , I can understand some might have misconstrued my comments.

So you want to deport people you disagree with? I’m not sure how that is any better.

Omg . Do you not get the gist of my point . Their job is Home Secretary , and they can make the final decision on deportation matters . I wouldn’t have mentioned deport if say Patel had been Health Secretary and no I don’t think people should be deported for having different views ! Can we just move on, I think the forum is now bored of this now .

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Anorak said:

#JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

Show me your Maths

Show me how with 18 LDs on Board for Jezza Johnson no deal wins!

Go on i dare you

Show me how 35 Independents, the majority of whom are ex Tories and some of whom still appear to be party members, back Corbyn.

He represents labour leave and I have asked for proof that with the Lib Dems he can get a majority, if there was Swinson would support it if it was a last resort. The reality is as long as Johnson can’t bypass the benn act then all they need to do is VONC on 1/11. Which corbyn is totally and utterly shit scared of and I would not surprised if he bottled it

There will be a vote for an election on 1st Nov regardless of whether we are in the EU or not and enough Labour MPs will break ranks to vote for it.

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are Europeans so much better than Singaporeans or Chinese in your eyes?

a Brit over an Australian

So Brits being European makes the Greek and Germans and Poles etc better than Singaporeans and Chinese. Wow . . .


I'd expect the Australian employer to want to get the best candidate they can get for the job. If that's an Australian so be it. If it is not an Australian I would expect Brits to be treated on a level playing field as Australia's nearby neighbours* like Singapore. I wouldn't expect them to put Brits behind 27 of their nearest neighbours just because of geography.

* Not New Zealand. New Zealand and Australia have a unique special relationship, like we do with Ireland.

How to spectacularly shoot your own argument down. Impressive.

How was the argument shot down?

How to spectacularly shoot your own argument down. Impressive.



Mr Thompson,

The points based system you relentlessly advocate discriminates against non-British people because the number of points needed is determined by the level of need for certain occupations in this country. Google “Resident labour market test”. The points threshold is lowered if there are fewer British workers available. Same in Australia. So your preferred solution, and that if your party, favours British workers. I know because I work in immigration law.

Secondly you say we should prioritise Ireland because we have a close relationship with it. Why? They appear to value their relationship with the EU more. Why should we prioritise that specific EU state? Because we conquered and oppressed it for many years? Guilt? Our language is Germanic, not Celtic, why prioretiae Ireland over Germany? A little racist don’t you think?

Finally, you are a young naive man so I will forgive you this once. But you should not call a man racist without any knowledge of him or his own again.


MY POST BELOW

slight point of order in that the points system we have now does not discriminate against non-british people, it discriminates against non-EEA people.

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

Thats just not true some Ex Tories including Ken have said Jezza as last resort. Abstentions are probably OK

Anna Soubry says Corbyn never but on 29/10/19 will she be the vote that enables No Deal

I have often admired your comments on this site but I think in this instance you are letting your emotions and feeling get in the way of logic..

Corbyn has at best 302 (lab, snp, green and plaid less Mann and hoey).. There may be some abstaining in his own ranks e.g flint but I wouldn't be sure of that.. On the opposing side you have all tory, DUP and 2 Labour... Which is 300..

With the indy former tories.. Clarke will probably vote for Corbyn and that's about it.. Most of the others have been making noises suggesting they would like to return to the tory fold e. G brine and noakes so they will not risk that by even abstaining let alone voting for.. That leaves the Labour indy lot half of which won't vote for corbyn and half who may do.. Even with the 15 LD MPs (3 certainly won't vote Corbyn under any circumstances) he's way short...

Honestly even if all his cards fell into place at the same time he would come up short and I suspect lady Hermon would be the casting vote if any and she too is on the record as being never corbyn..

The time limited backstop is the concession I thought they would give May.

Noo said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Noo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Define work.

People from across the world still get here so something must be working even if other bits can be improved. If we can stop relying upon the crutch of free movement then we will be better motivated to fix any flaws with our system that impede the creme de la creme from coming.

Its rather bigoted of @Noo to consider [primarily white] Europeans to be the "creme de la creme" we need to be attracting, rather than the creme de la creme of the entire world whether that be Asians, North or South Americans, Africans or indeed Europeans.

You really are a thick twat aren't you?

At no point did I say that Europeans are the creme de la creme. I said reducing the talent pool of easy hires from 28 to 1 country will be detrimental to attracting the creme de la creme here.
As far as I can tell, the proposals won't change the barriers to those coming from outside the EU, but will significantly increase the barriers for those from within the rest of the EU. That is an increase in the difficulty of hiring.

Meanwhile, other EU countries are not raising their barrier to hiring, which means they will become more competitive in terms of hiring and investment.

It's sad that you had to make a baseless accusation based on what you thought I was saying rather than what I actually said. But I forgive you, because it looks a lot like you were being a cretin rather than being malicious. But you should still apologise.

We are not reducing the talent pool from 28 to 1 country. We are taking steps to liberalise migration in the right areas to expand the talent pool to 195 countries.

28 countries do not trump 195 countries. Until you come to me with a reason why we need to discriminate against Singaporeans and Chinese in order to get the world's best people, all I detect from you is racism.

I thought calling another poster a "twat" brought down the ban hammer? Or is it a case of It's OK If You're A Remainer?

It's ok because it's true.

dyedwoolie said:

PaulM said:

bigjohnowls said:

TudorRose said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

And 286 + 18 is not 306.

Oh so you mean Tory Swinson cant control her own party on stopping BREXIT.

You are correct about Mann and Hoey so i accept the 304 starting point is 302. Berger and Chukka are supposed to be in the Tory Swinson team now. Some Tory rebels have already committed to a Corbyn GONU if it is the only option to stop No Deal so i think realistically should be up to 310ish then the 5 Change Uk ers are crucial unless SF take their seats.

Who else are you suggesting can get over 100

Is Mann still allowed to vote now he is a Lord ?

Hes not in yet

Is there a ceremony that the Queen needs to do ?

Philip_Thompson said:

Noo said:

You need to apologise for calling me a bigot.
You are attacking straw men:
"while keeping tight restrictions on Africans, Asians, North and South Americans", "restricting Singaporeans, Chinese". I've said nothing of the sort.
I've said the increase in barriers is detrimental. Indeed, if Patel were proposing something like Trump's "Muslim ban", stopping immigration wholesale from certain countries, that would be objectionable.
We should be working in the opposite direction, making it easier for people to move around for work. Not harder.
As it happens, I think that the focus should be on making it easier for the rest of the world. But making it harder for Europeans under the banner of equality is rather like saying we should seize the homes of the wealthy and give them to the homeless. Yes, it's "fairer" in a weird way, but it's also breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

You, too, are breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

You went off on a rant about what you imagined I believed, and you got it wrong. I regret that you didn't stop to take the time to think about how much your mind was contributing to what you thought I was saying rather than just reading what I said, but it's ok because you've only embarrassed yourself. Again. I will accept your apology, if you're man enough to offer it.

I won't apologise for calling you out on your bigotry. You look down your nose and want to discriminate against 167 countries and their citizens.

Patel has proposed lowering barriers on those seeking work in academia etc across the globe, while ending free movement from just 27 [primarily white] European nations. You react with horror at this proposal. That is bigotry. Making it easier for the world's best to get academic roles etc is not going to make our universities worse like you claim.

Until you address the fact that there are 195 countries not 28 in this small world of ours, I have no apologies for someone so small minded as to think only 28 matter.

You are in favour of a policy proposal that simply narrows down 28 favoured countries to one. Under your party’s proposals employers will only be issued Tier 2 permits for shortage occupations and then only after advertising for a Brit (that’s how your beloved points system works). You favour 1 country against the rest of the world. We favour 28 against the rest of the world. To my mind that makes us 28 times less racist than you.

nichomar said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

He has resigned the whip is still a ,
Member and will vote against no deal

I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

He nominated Corbyn for the Leadership in 2015.

He abstained Cooper boles, for the Brady amendment, and his new party is pro Brexit. He left labour having been one of 4 to defy the whip over Brexit and customs union. Nothing suggests he would support Corbyn. He nominated him, in his words, to make labour face its internal deficit and did not feel he could become a PM

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, those nice collegiate Labour people are having a comradely discussion about choosing a mayoral candidate for the West Midlands:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/01/metro-mayor-selection-process-hit-by-row-over-prospective-candidate

Yes, that article feels horribly true. I fear that much of the stuff we get from Boris’s admirers - about Boris’s magic and Dom’s genius - will turn out to be nothing more than a befuddled fantasy. Not long to find out.

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??

Noo said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Noo said:

You need to apologise for calling me a bigot.
You are attacking straw men:
"while keeping tight restrictions on Africans, Asians, North and South Americans", "restricting Singaporeans, Chinese". I've said nothing of the sort.
I've said the increase in barriers is detrimental. Indeed, if Patel were proposing something like Trump's "Muslim ban", stopping immigration wholesale from certain countries, that would be objectionable.
We should be working in the opposite .

You, too, are breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

You went off on a rant about what you imagined I believed, and you got it wrong. I regret that you didn't stop to take the time to think about how much your mind was contributing to what you thought I was saying rather than just reading what I said, but it's ok because you've only embarrassed yourself. Again. I will accept your apology, if you're man enough to offer it.

I won't apologise for calling you out on your bigotry. You look down your nose and want to discriminate against 167 countries and their citizens.

Patel has proposed lowering barriers on those seeking work in academia etc across the globe, while ending free movement from just 27 [primarily white] European nations. You react with horror at this proposal. That is bigotry. Making it easier for the world's best to get academic roles etc is not going to make our universities worse like you claim.

Until you address the fact that there are 195 countries not 28 in this small world of ours, I have no apologies for someone so small minded as to think only 28 matter.

You are in favour of a policy proposal that simply narrows down 28 favoured countries to one. Under your party’s proposals employers will only be issued Tier 2 permits for shortage occupations and then only after advertising for a Brit (that’s how your beloved points system works). You favour 1 country against the rest of the world. We favour 28 against the rest of the world. To my mind that makes us 28 times less racist than you.

Speak for yourself. That is not a representation of my position.

My comments were addressed to Mr Thompson but there was a clumsy use of “we” in an attempt to get Mr Thompson to understand. It wasn’t intended to mean you. Essentially EU free movement pushes the border out as far as an policy can take it thus far. It could have been better expressed.

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??

Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/brexit/status/1179069628242378753?s=21

Not up for negotiation?

Please God take it

Amen. There was a strange uptick in GBP about a hour ago. I wondered what caused it. If Boris doesn't grab this with both hands, he is stupid.

Would be a great result if true!

Wording with Bloomberg is oddly non committal. Sounds like someone is flying a kite from the EU side.

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??

Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.

And you will name those who will vote No Deal despite resigning the Party Whip to avoid it?

DougSeal said:

Sorry, clumsy use of “we” in an attempt to get Mr Thompson to understand. Essentially EU free movement pushes the border out as far as an policy can take it thus far. It could have been better expressed.

Well you're right and wrong.
Right in the sense that it's a more noble and defensible position than PT's.
Wrong in the sense that you think you can get him to understand anything more basic than "fire" "smash" "me eat now" and "this cave mine".

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

nichomar said:

Anorak said:

#JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on

You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.

I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?

The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??

None of the ex Tories will vote for him (Clarke and bebb wont I think even having mused it in passing) many will abstain, a few like Soames have categorically stated they will not allow Corbyn to become PM
Of the indies, field, Austin, Lewis, elphicke, woodcock are going fo vote against him
I also think change and the firmer change indies may well vote against him

Casino_Royale said:

How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

She’s shorter than Buttigieg.

I didn't think the presidency was about the physical size of the candidates.

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

He has resigned the whip is still a ,
Member and will vote against no deal

I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?

I thought we were talking about Lloyd eastbourne not the others

Ah, my mistake, I was talking about Frank Field.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I must say I'm struggling to see how wanting to deport Priti Patel is any different from Trump wanting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to 'go home', but no doubt that's because I'm not woke enough to navigate these treacherous waters.

I think if you’re woke enough you can get the racism to work for you.

(am I doing this right?)

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

nichomar said:

Anorak said:

#JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on

You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.

I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?

The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?

If Johnson fails to request the extension he gets sacked by HMQ and corbyn is installed to do it and then is VONC next day

TGOHF2 said:

So Germany and France offered 7 years and the Commission knows nothing about it - farce..

That’s not what they said

They said the EU is not discussing it

That’s true

France & Germany are though...

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

justin124 said:

dyedwoolie said:

spudgfsh said:

dyedwoolie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Party Seats
Conservative 288
Labour 246
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.

But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?

By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against

The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.

As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining

He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.

Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??

Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.

Ken Clarke Domonic Grieve

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

No.

Why? with 18 LDs 246 Lab 35SNP 4PC 1 Green =304

Casino_Royale said:

If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

It’s probably too late though, since he’s shat away 21 of his own MPs.

Most of the 21 will vote in favour of any negotiated deal - Stewart, Clarke, etc.

I'll be very surprised if the EU offer a time limit. It would be a capitulation. I don't see how the Irish government would be able to explain it to their voters.

We'll find out soon enough.

Charles said:

TGOHF2 said:

So Germany and France offered 7 years and the Commission knows nothing about it - farce..

That’s not what they said

They said the EU is not discussing it

That’s true

France & Germany are though...

That's clutching at straws in my opinion

Casino_Royale said:

How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

She’s shorter than Buttigieg.

Rumours this week she is entering the race. I can't see it myself.

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

It’s probably too late though, since he’s shat away 21 of his own MPs.

Most of the 21 will vote in favour of any negotiated deal - Stewart, Clarke, etc.

I'll be very surprised if the EU offer a time limit. It would be a capitulation. I don't see how the Irish government would be able to explain it to their voters.

We'll find out soon enough.

Because it’s a can kick, and the EU love can kicks.

We’ll find out soon enough.

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

No.

Why? with 18 LDs 246 Lab 35SNP 4PC 1 Green =304

Because the 18 Lib Dems would not vote with Corbyn. So the starting point is Lab 246 SNP 35 and 1 Green, possibly also PC, which is 286.

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?

Rumours France and Germany are discussing whether to time limit the backstop.

Commission in strenuous denial.

MarqueeMark said:

Andrew said:

MarqueeMark said:

This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

Pay attention.

There will be no extension from the EU. It will be a vote between Boris's Deal and No Deal.

There is no Boris deal...

Casino_Royale said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?

Rumours France and Germany are discussing whether to time limit the backstop.

Commission in strenuous denial.

It would be the ultimate humiliation for Juncker in the dog days of his disastrous Commission if he was bypassed on such a thing.

But I really would be surprised if they upset Barnier and Sophie in 't Veld, not to mention Varadkar, in such a way. Delighted, admittedly, but surprised.

justin124 said:

Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

Being against Johnson is rather different from being for Corbyn. Check out my posting history if you don't believe me.

justin124 said:

Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

That is the thing, they will happily vote down Johnson and the ticking clock will force the parties into making a concession. Someone will move it's just a case of who

justin124 said:

Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

It all depends when it happens you can VONC Johnson on 1/11 if the benn act has been implemented without supporting corbyn. If Johnson won’t obey the law it goes to the courts. There is no way I can see that Swinson has to back corbyn to stop no deal.

timmo said:

GIN1138 said:

asjohnstone said:

JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.

He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.

So all that stuff about pompous, self-important judges interfering in political decisions...

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Andrew said:

MarqueeMark said:

This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

Pay attention.

There will be no extension from the EU. It will be a vote between Boris's Deal and No Deal.

There is no Boris deal...

You desperately hope.....

nico67 said:

timmo said:

GIN1138 said:

asjohnstone said:

JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.

He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.

Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

They’re best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !

Or possibly the target audience is across the channel?

Gallowgate said:

I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.

Has she stopped BREXIT yet?

nico67 said:

timmo said:

GIN1138 said:

asjohnstone said:

JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.

He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.

Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

Their best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !

People don't riot in the October rain, and not sure that Leave could round up enough boot boys in in heavily Remain London. Riots in Hartlepool may not be so newsworthy...

humbugger said:

I've no idea whether the time limited backstop is in play now, but either way the EU had no need to offer it to May as they knew she'd never leave without a deal. With Boris it's probably different.

It's not about fear of No Deal. It's about whether they feel offering this (minor but meaningful) concession will make the difference in getting the WA through parliament. They judged that under May it would not. If they offer it to Johnson it means they think under him it will.