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That's an interesting new development. One Nation Lib Dems.

Good to see the fruits of all HY’s hard work

One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Is that all?

tlg86 said:

One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Is that all?

For now

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

Man U 2.28
Arsenal 3.35
Draw 3.65

Lay Man U?

Why is no deal such a powerful threat to the EU.

MikeSmithson said:

tlg86 said:

One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Is that all?

For now

The way the Tory headbangers are criticising May, Cameron and anyone to the left of Anne Widdecombe, this number is sure to rise.

Join the LDs and pick up the Coalition where you left off!

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, this is a target-rich environment. A lot of the remainder are holding off moving because they don’t yet see the Lib Dems as a viable choice. If polls move further to the Lib Dems, a virtuous circle forms.

Yes when the risk of corbyn diminishes the more people will feel able to vote Lib Dem

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

FPT-

Byronic/SeanT-

We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.

In fact doesn’t independence signal the end of the SNP as we witness here the party is more important than the destination.

https://twitter.com/anitathetweeter/status/1178734402932789249?s=21

Well this is a good look:

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1178709920872636416?s=21

justin124 said:

The_Taxman said:

I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

Which constituency?

I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!

TGOHF2 said:

And how many would still vote LD when we have left by the time of the election ?

Depends if Brexit is merely Brexshit or full on Eurogeddon?

Another reason Swinson is right not to touch Corbyn with a barge poll. We'll get to the ' Revoke Reward ' in due course.

AlastairMeeks said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

Man U 2.28
Arsenal 3.35
Draw 3.65

Lay Man U?

Lay Arsenal.

FPT:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

Surely, though, a GoNAfaE would only exist to:

(1) ask for (and secure) an extension
(2) No Confidence itself

That could happen over the length of a Kenneth Clarke lunch.

That is what I was thinking, but then who is in charge for the subsequent election?

Well, I don't see why Mr Johnson doesn't get to get the reigns of government back for the election (should he so desire). He can confidence himself, and then call an election. (Or resign if necessary.)

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

FPT-

Byronic/SeanT-

We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.

They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.

Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

Hm, you're being inconsistent with your previous mailing: if the referendum is legal then it will be accepted by the EU as they have made clear - or as clear as they can when the UK is still a member. Even the Spanish have said that.

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.

There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?

Given that the Libs polled only 7.5% at GE 2017 but are now at 20% with Opinium, by definition most of their current support must be coming from people who previously voted for the two main parties at that election. And it's no surprise that the Libs are picking up Conservative Remainers as well as Labour Remainers but no Leavers.

So in a sense this analysis is just stating what is pretty obvious anyway from the headline figures. Johnson won't be too discomforted if the Opinium data as a whole is correct, because it has the Conservatives on 36%, 12% ahead of Lab and 16% ahead of the Libs.

Black_Rook said:

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

This was the theme of my post on Saturday. I don’t know what the Lib Dems’ best strategy is. Insurgent campaigning may be more effective in the modern world.

justin124 said:

The_Taxman said:

justin124 said:

The_Taxman said:

I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

Which constituency?

I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!

Huddersfield!

Yes, but not at this time! I am in halifax and to be fair have heard no political chat! But will investigate.

Yellow_Submarine said:

Another reason Swinson is right not to touch Corbyn with a barge poll. We'll get to the ' Revoke Reward ' in due course.

Tricky balance for her to strike to avoid being somehow seen as obstructive to Remain efforts. I think Corbyn is as much a turn off to some of the Labour moderates drifting over to the LDs as he is to ex Tories.

With both Mark Francois (tonight) and the DUP (last week) hinting at willingness to look at an improved deal, it will get interesting for all concerned if Boris does in fact bring a deal back, vanishingly unlikely as that seems. Hard to guess how voting against one would play out with these fluid groups of voters.

AlastairMeeks said:

Black_Rook said:

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

This was the theme of my post on Saturday. I don’t know what the Lib Dems’ best strategy is. Insurgent campaigning may be more effective in the modern world.

The problem the LD’s have is that they are geared up to a 40/40 strategy ie 40 seats with full focus And 40 with development focus. It’s still the best approach, if the narrative changes beyond wildest expectations then it will deliver itself. They need to not get carried away and see what happens.

FPT, but I just wanted to comment on this.

nico67 said:

Thankfully the opposition parties have seen sense and not fallen for a trap .

To have tried to VONC Bozo now would have allowed him to say they ruined negotiations as allegedly concrete proposals will be put forward early next week .

Secondly the 21 Tory rebels are reluctant to pull the plug, some want the whip back and others want to be seen to giving him a chance to secure a deal.

The off record briefings about a loophole in the Benn Act were a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into an early VONC.

The so called loopholes are just more nonsense from Cummings .

I think the so called 'Rebel Alliance' a (lot) frit. They have continuously said they'll VoNC, but no VoNC is ever put forward (though I think this says more about the state of Labour than the Lib Dems and SNP, as only Labour has the unfettered ability to VoNC). Now they say they are going to wait until next week as more proposals are being put forward.

Haven't we been here before? Twice? On 20th August, Merkel told Bozo to come up with a workable solution within 30 days. He told Steven Barclay to crack on. 30 days have passed, and nothing. Nothing happened. The 20th September has come and gone.

The separately, on the 18th, I recall the Finnish PM told the UK it had twelve days to put something forward that would work. Well, it's 8pm on the evening of the 30th September, and unless Johnson pulls something out in the next few hours (there's a joke there somewhere), nothing has been presented.
Now we're told to wait till next week?

Here's a sentence for you, that'll work whatever day you read it. "TOMORROW, Johnson will put forward workable solutions to the Backstop and solve Brexit. TOMORROW." Read that whenever you want. It'll always be true.


Secondly, and lesserly, stop calling them the '21' rebels. Sam Gyimah is gone, and ain't coming back. And I'm willing to bet a few others aren't either (at least not whilst Johnson is in charge). I think even if Brexit were resolved (somehow), only about 15 would return to the fold max. I can't see the Conservatives regaining their majority anytime soon (if ever before a GE).

HYUFD said:

Byronic said:

HYUFD said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

FPT-

Byronic/SeanT-

We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.

They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.

Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyreund me.

To be fair to Scotland, Scotland has a gdp per capita higher than any English regions bar London and the South East, it could survive as an independent nation in a way that Wales, which is poorer than every English region bar the North East, could not.

However I still believe the Union is better for all of us

I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.

Indeed, Quebec had to wait 15 years after its first referendum on independence from Canada in 1980 for a second.

Given the Socialist Spanish PM has an election next month and polls suggest Catalan nationalists will hold the balance of power we may finally get a referendum on independence in Catalonia first anyway

I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.

Just saw the ‘spaffed’ extract of that Joe Pike interview on C4 News. Absolute train wreck! Wouldn’t it be better to say I regret using that term/ I shouldn’t have used that term, rather than just look as shifty as he so painfully does?

I’m beginning to come to the view that he’s not actually very good at politics.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/03/31/comres-the-twoeds-getting-closer-on-the-economy/

A reminder of simpler times.

TheValiant said:

rcs1000 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskyindyref:

++++

I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

++++

Far too pessimistic

There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.

English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....

The English wine manufacturers would be desperate

Black_Rook said:

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

To quote Paul Gauguin:

“Where do we come from?" "What are we?""Where are we going?”

Byronic said:

I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.

No it's not - the reason for a second EU referendum is to offer a Leave option and confirm that people prefer the actual version of leave (rather than their own self invented unicorn) we are implementing or remaining in the EU.

Black_Rook said:

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

We weren't dead, we were only restin'

TGOHF2 said:

And how many would still vote LD when we have left by the time of the election ?

Hard to say . It depends what they’ll put in the manifesto . Given it will be about the future relationship .

I think re join isn’t the way to go , even as an ardent Remainer I think there’s no way back for a very long time .

I’d vote for a party that will have a very close relationship with the EU.

nichomar said:

TheValiant said:

rcs1000 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskyindyref:

++++

I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

++++

Far too pessimistic

There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.

English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....

The English wine manufacturers would be desperate

Buckfast Abbey perhaps...

ThomasNashe said:

Just saw the ‘spaffed’ extract of that Joe Pike interview on C4 News. Absolute train wreck! Wouldn’t it be better to say I regret using that term/ I shouldn’t have used that term, rather than just look as shifty as he so painfully does?

I’m beginning to come to the view that he’s not actually very good at politics.

BJ is hopless! Worse than Gordon Brown! He is using NHS as a political tool! Pathetic...

The_Taxman said:

He is using NHS as a political tool! Pathetic...

No different to every PM and LoTO since time immemorial.

spudgfsh said:

The_Taxman said:

Just to say!

Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...

when he said he'd vote to remain, was that to remain in the pub?

In the EU.

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

TheValiant said:

rcs1000 said:

Byronic said:

JBriskyindyref:

++++

I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

++++

Far too pessimistic

There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.

English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....

The English wine manufacturers would be desperate

Buckfast Abbey perhaps...

Maybe but completley OT one of the best days out I had was a visit to teignworthy brewery and Newton Abbott races, lots of good things in the West Country.

CatMan said:

nichomar said:

I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.

I am (Hence my profile picture)

Greetings sideways Northumbrian.

spudgfsh said:

M.Partridge said:

I can believe this.

As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.

welcome to the club. do you need a pair of sandals or do you have your own?

I'm coming from the other direction but seriously thinking of joining the LDs myself now.

Black_Rook said:

Tabman said:

Black_Rook said:

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

We weren't dead, we were only restin'

Oh, that's what the Plump Pigeon of Proportional Representation is meant to be: a Norwegian Blue! Now it all makes sense.

We were a dead parrot never to rise from the ashes, a polygon but we need to beware the Icarus syndrome

HYUFD said:

Opinium also has 32% of 2017 Labour Remainers now voting LD and 21% of 2017 Labour Leavers now voting Tory and 37% of 2017 LD Leavers now also voting Tory.

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019-2/

Genuine question: how many LD leavers are/were there?

ralphmalph said:

Somebody can check my Maths but my workings are Con L/R split 70:30,
Con got 42.4% in 2017. So 33% of 30% is 10%. So overall 4..2% is added to the LD score. This was 7.4% in 2017, so where is the rest of the LD bounce coming from and this remainer part is the largest. Well can only be the trots.

it doesn't take maths to work that one out. just look at the overall numbers for Labour and compare it to the last GE. They've lost anywhere between 17 and 20% in vote share. those votes are not going Tory but LD / Green / SNP / PC

JBriskinindyref2 said:

spudgfsh said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.

There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?

It's the same F-ing Island as someone once famously (to me at least) stated on PB.

We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.

It's the Unionists that march (sometimes several times) every week round my bit, and they seem to have a deep, unnatural attachment to a part of another island.

Yellow_Submarine said:

During the Cheadle By-Election an astute Lib Dem campaigner told me " the difference between a Lib Dem voter and a Conservative voter in Cheadle is how much they recycle. "

What they meant was that demographicly and socioeconomically identical affluent households would be prepared to vote Lib Dem rather than Conservative over micro social issues like Gay rights, Foriegn Aid or the Enviroment. Cameron spotted this.

Of course since then we've had The Crash, The Coalition, Nationalism etc. Things change.

But perhaps via Brexit ( or more accurately how Brexit is changing the Conservative Party ) that Cheadle distinction is Remainian Tory areas is reasserting itself ? We'll see.

My mum was obsessed by recycling in the 1980s when most people hadn't heard of it. Not sure whether she's a LD supporter though.