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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding
After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away?
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"Who do you think is most to blame for the economic problems that Britain has experienced in the last few years?"
41 - Labour under Brown
12 - Coalition under Cameron
15 - Neither
24 - Both
8 - Don't know
(29% of Labour voters blame both, 60% of Ukip voters blame Labour/Brown)
Presently the Labour lead is 1-3% and the medium term trend continues to head south. The big question for Labour is what might they do to arrest that trend and counteract the twin pincer movement of the improving economy and Ed's poor personal numbers.
Which party would you most trust to manage Britain's economy?
Cons: 32
LAB: 23
LD: 6
None of them : 28
DK: 10
Who do you think is most to blame for the economic
problems that Britain has experienced in the last few
years?
The last Labour government under Gordon Brown: 41
Current coalition under David Cameron: 12
Neither: 15
Both: 24
DK: 8
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/28/ukip-cllr-gordon-gillick-lights-payment_n_5048689.html
Labour voters on Miliband:
0 - Too radical & bad
18 - Radical & good
55 - Cautious but good
5 - Too cautious & bad
22 - What policies?
Tory voters on Cameron:
1 - Too radical & bad
43 - Radical & good
47 - Cautious but good
2 - Too cautious & bad
7 - What policies?
Lots of questions re EDM - Comparisons are with Sep 2013 where there is one:
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party, do you think he...
Has or has not made it clear what he stands for?
Has made it clear what he stands for? 26(+9)
Has not: 58(-9)
DK 16 (+1)
Is in touch or out of touch with ordinary voters?
In touch: 29(+8)
Out of touch: 55(-3)
Has been trustworthy or untrustworthy?
Trustworthy: 31 (+3)
Untrustworthy: 38(+2)
Has been decisive or indecisive?
Decisive: 20
Indecisive: 60
Is likeable or dislikeable?
Likeable: 31
Dislikeable: 48
Has been a strong or weak leader of his party?
A strong leader: 14 (+5)
Weak: 46(-6)
Neither: 31(+3)
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour
party, do you think he...
Does or does not understand what British business needs to make it a success?
Does understand what British business needs to make it a success: 26
Does Not: 48
Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too distant, or has got the balance about right?
Has been too close to the Trade Unions: 29(+4)
Too distant:: 13(-7)
About right: 29(+7)
Would or would not be up to the job of Prime Minister?
Would be up to the job of Prime Minister: 25 (+8)
Would not: 56(-7)
BBC - Scottish Lib Dem conf: Willie Rennie says 'bedroom tax should go' http://bbc.in/1eZ16Et but does he support powers to scrap? #indyref
tony munday @tonymunday1 22m
Lib Dems at ‘make or break’ point on Rennard harassment allegations Leadership 'unspecified ' CLEGG ? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-at-make-or-break-point-on-rennard-harassment-allegations-9223715.html …
Indeed, it would be interesting for all parties, but Labour and UKIP probably rely on the non-graduate vote more than the Coalition parties do. The Clegg/Farage post-debate polling suggested an opposition between "in touch" and "intelligent". Pity they didn't ask "good at maths" - it might even turn out that people wanted a Chancellor they disliked. And the only ex-Chancellor in modern times to have gone on not only to lead his Party but also to win a General Election is John Major. And he was Foreign Secretary for three-quarters of an hour first.
Who will win most votes?
Evs Labour
Evs Conservatives
33 UKIP
100 Liberal Democrats
Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles
Evs Lab Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
5/4 Cons Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
66 Lab Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.
To respond to Financier, Labour generally does best (in my patch at least) with people who appear to be either well-educated or lower-income (hard to be sure but one can make a reasonable guess). We find it harder going with people who appear less educated but on higher incomes. To some extent, though, both may reflect the different approaches of the local candidates.
Despite being in a coalition (and therefore irritating the self-described "true Tories") and despite being an austerity government and despite the rise of UKIP on their right flank, the Tories seem to have held on to most of their 2010 vote (this poll puts them on -4, which seems to be at the low end of the current range)
Despite being the sole opposition and despite having a new leader and despite facing an austerity government and despite the LibDems having split Labour doesn't seem to be dominating the political field (again with the caveat that this specific poll puts them at the top of the recent range).
Fundamentally, it seems that, net net, there has been very little movement in the support of the two competing political positions since 2010 (although obviously with a lot of churning).
Given the circumstances, this is a great performance by the Tories and a poor performance by Labour. It may be enough to win them the election, but it's not an inspiring strategy for someone who should want to carry the nation with them.
Second round for French local elections.
Selection meeting for Blackburn CLP. Local papers said over 200 postal votes
One for you http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia
Also of real interest (for some of us, apologies to the rest)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/29/alistair-carmichael-scottish-independence-poll-losing
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/pro-union-campaign-in-crisis-after-minister-admits-currency-union-ban-was-a-bluff.23823233
Leaving aside our competing perspectives, though, the key point is perhaps that nobody is seen by voters as having come up with a clear medium-term sense of direction ("What are they trying to do?". As you say, the basic attitudes of the public are largely unchanged. All that's happened bar a quite modest churn is:
1. The anti-Conservative part of the LibDems plan to vote against the coalition.
2. UKIP has hoovered up the protest vote, mostly from the Tories.
That's it.
By the way, an anecdote from yesterday's canvass:
Me: How do you think you'll vote in next year's election?
Voter: I usually vote Tory and would never vote Labour. However, I prefer you as our MP, so I'm going to vote UKIP, because I think that will let you in by the back door. Fair enough?
Me: Er......
The receding effect was visible even before with Yougov as it is daily. The monthly one's obviously would not show that as this it their first post budget poll.
I think the true lead is about 3-4% more than enough for Dr Fisher and Rod C to get excited
After all, OGH tells us that Tories are too stupid to vote tactically!
ps on your substantive point, Labour hasn't had a debate about what they want to do because Blair and Brown created a herd of sheep who have no thoughts beyond power.
The overall effect, I am not sure. It will definitely help Labour in Lab - LD marginals or even in three party contests. { incidentally, it should help Labour in Hampstead ]. At the same time, it might tip over some LD seats to the Tories.
Nonetheless, 8/1 is a good bet !
However, if you take the YES position on currency union, it seems for the first time, 8% of a market knows what's best for 100% of the market ?
ps I see Flash is still in hiding after being shown to be a cowardly liar yesterday.
The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.
The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.
' I am sure the national newspaper or the Tory minister were lying'
First we were told it was an 'unnamed' minister,then Joyce tells us it was Alexander then the story changed again to a Tory minister & that the currency union was in exchange for keeping the nukes at Faslane.
Then Sturgeon pops up and says no way to nukes being kept at Faslane in exchange for currency union.
Eh???
Leaked results from France will start to arrive from 6 PM (places where the polling day is until 5 PM). Official results won't be declared until Paris closes the polls at 8 PM French time. However, twitter will be full....and obviously you can get full results from key "villages" in La Reunion!!!
Their private polling will be telling them exactly where they are and the revelations that Darling is telling the treasury what to do and say does not make it much better. Even the donkey Carmichael has grasped what is happening. YES remain cool , calm and collected.
Any unionist who argues otherwise has taken leave of their critical capacities.
Bloody dreadful campaign - the scare stories just aren't working.
PB....one of the most entertaining sites on the internet.
In Sheffield there are already some declared runners. In Batley & Spen 1 public (or at least I found just one) so far and it's a more interesting place to check what an AWS can produce there (other than cutting out soe Asian men after Dewsbury, Blackburn, Burnley also got AWS)
You know my views on the pogo pollsters so enough said. Rather sickened at the sensationalist "Rent Boy" headlines in 2 papers today. What the Tory MP is alleged to have done if only relating to sex is not a criminal offence and frankly what is the difference from a footballer taking some young woman to a 5 star hotel and buying her expensive champagne in order to get sex? If national security is not compromised it is nobody's business. Is Rupert Murdoch trying to undermine the good news about the first "gay marriages" in England?
Off to take my lovely mother out to lunch as normal on a Sunday.
As the founder, CEO and general bodacious genius behind ARSE it is my calling to ensure that followers are fully appreciative of the way the wind is blowing before lower division commentators reflect on new information.
Such, almost mystic, powers have allowed my adherents to cash in and in recent years ensure that the financial consequences of the nightmare of the Brown years are diminished.
It's a theory.
In any case in the event that Scotland's banks started falling apart, the English will be sufficiently integrated that they'll be on the hook like Germany was for Euro area banks, regardless of the currency they're using. If you're going to end up with a de-facto responsibility for potential liabilities, you may as well negotiate a proper banking union so you keep some control over the risks.
This is an interesting story in the IoS. Labour are angry about Cameron cutting the amount of time Labour gets to spend with the civil service before the next election. Any justification?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-labour-will-be-given-only-six-months-to-plan-policies-in-whitehall-before-the-general-election-in-2015-9223706.html
Expect any protest from those constitutional reformers the Lib Dems? I expect not. As Clegg allegedly said over boundary reform he's not prepared to be the last ever leader of the Lib Dems. He wants to stop a Labour majority from happening and is determined they they go for a coalition with the Lib Dems rather than try to govern alone. Denying access to the civil service, whom the Lib Dems will know well, enhances the case for a coalition. Labour should kick up a fuss. Jack Straw could be of use here.
reclassifying rent boys is as politically correct as reclassifying prostitutes as "sex workers"
Next you will be telling me that the BBC will be editing the Dambusters film because Guy Gibson's dog was called by an name that we are now no longer legally allowed to use(not that one would) even though black guys use it in common parlance.
Wonderful story !
F1: I shan't spoil the race (had a quick check of the last thread and it seems a few will be opting for highlight), but I've seen it and shall put up the post-race piece fairly soon.
Majority of VI do not expect Labour to keep their Promises
If Labour were to win the next election, do you think they would or would not deliver on their current promises?
Would probably deliver on most or all of their current promises: 8
Would probably deliver on the majority of their current promises: 25
Would probably fail to deliver on the majority of their current promises: 35
Would probably fail to deliver most or all of their current promises: 20
DK: 12
Tumbleweed....
They are, to coin a phrase, both in it together and at the election both will be able and ready to "campaign on the Coalition's record as a whole." The rest is up to the punters.
The Lib Dems fought the election as a social democratic party. Clegg has used the coaition as an excuse to abandon that. It's no wonder people are disgusted with him.
The LibDems are now a blooded party of government, with all the consequences of that, good or otherwise.
' But they need to come out, say it was a mistake and resign from the government.'
Are you sure they exist and that this is not just another made up story?
Even the SNP has said that half the story is rubbish.
They just need to pretend to want a currency union in order to hoodwink enough of the undecided voters to vote Yes, then pretend that the nasty English have spurned them. It is just gamesmanship.
For a minister to say that he thinks there will be a currency union, despite current Unionist politicians coming out against it, seems to me to be a reasonable opinion to express.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/yes-campaign-distance-themselves-pro-independence-2266858