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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be a

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I'd guess a bit of both, but as far as predicting the election goes I think we can put the people who identified UKIP before the budget but Con after safely in the Con column. If they're not firmly UKIP at this point they'll go Con when UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    The govt approval is generally a pretty good indicator (especially when leader "doing well" numbers are flat) and this is still bang on average since the budget. The Sunday Times YouGov is generally better for Labour anyway (compared to other YouGovs) and this is just towards the extremity. We will see on Monday and Tuesday I guess.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited March 2014
    Anyway, some good questions in the poll. This one potentially a little slanted, but shows up Labour's "ball and chain of blame"

    "Who do you think is most to blame for the economic problems that Britain has experienced in the last few years?"

    41 - Labour under Brown
    12 - Coalition under Cameron
    15 - Neither
    24 - Both
    8 - Don't know

    (29% of Labour voters blame both, 60% of Ukip voters blame Labour/Brown)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The LD 2010 VI split is very atypical of recent polls. It is LAB37 LD 31
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Could be a sign that Shadsy's long CON pricing in the marginals is spot on.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2014
    This YouGov is a clear outlier compared to the other recent polls. Further it's hardly novel for YouGov to throw out a curve ball from time to time.

    Presently the Labour lead is 1-3% and the medium term trend continues to head south. The big question for Labour is what might they do to arrest that trend and counteract the twin pincer movement of the improving economy and Ed's poor personal numbers.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Yougov

    Which party would you most trust to manage Britain's economy?

    Cons: 32
    LAB: 23
    LD: 6
    None of them : 28
    DK: 10

    Who do you think is most to blame for the economic
    problems that Britain has experienced in the last few
    years?
    The last Labour government under Gordon Brown: 41
    Current coalition under David Cameron: 12
    Neither: 15
    Both: 24
    DK: 8
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    "Thinking generally about the sort of policies that have been put forward ... do you think they are..."

    Labour voters on Miliband:

    0 - Too radical & bad
    18 - Radical & good
    55 - Cautious but good
    5 - Too cautious & bad
    22 - What policies?

    Tory voters on Cameron:

    1 - Too radical & bad
    43 - Radical & good
    47 - Cautious but good
    2 - Too cautious & bad
    7 - What policies?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Financier said:

    The LD 2010 VI split is very atypical of recent polls. It is LAB37 LD 31

    What have recent polls been showing?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    test4
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    More YouGov

    Lots of questions re EDM - Comparisons are with Sep 2013 where there is one:

    Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party, do you think he...
    Has or has not made it clear what he stands for?
    Has made it clear what he stands for? 26(+9)
    Has not: 58(-9)
    DK 16 (+1)

    Is in touch or out of touch with ordinary voters?
    In touch: 29(+8)
    Out of touch: 55(-3)

    Has been trustworthy or untrustworthy?
    Trustworthy: 31 (+3)
    Untrustworthy: 38(+2)

    Has been decisive or indecisive?
    Decisive: 20
    Indecisive: 60

    Is likeable or dislikeable?
    Likeable: 31
    Dislikeable: 48

    Has been a strong or weak leader of his party?
    A strong leader: 14 (+5)
    Weak: 46(-6)
    Neither: 31(+3)

    Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour
    party, do you think he...
    Does or does not understand what British business needs to make it a success?
    Does understand what British business needs to make it a success: 26
    Does Not: 48

    Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too distant, or has got the balance about right?
    Has been too close to the Trade Unions: 29(+4)
    Too distant:: 13(-7)
    About right: 29(+7)

    Would or would not be up to the job of Prime Minister?
    Would be up to the job of Prime Minister: 25 (+8)
    Would not: 56(-7)






  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Paul Donaldson ‏@Paulmoravia 6h

    BBC - Scottish Lib Dem conf: Willie Rennie says 'bedroom tax should go' http://bbc.in/1eZ16Et but does he support powers to scrap? #indyref


    tony munday ‏@tonymunday1 22m

    Lib Dems at ‘make or break’ point on Rennard harassment allegations Leadership 'unspecified ' CLEGG ? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-at-make-or-break-point-on-rennard-harassment-allegations-9223715.html
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JackW said:

    This YouGov is a clear outlier compared to the other recent polls. Further it's hardly novel for YouGov to throw out a curve ball from time to time.

    Presently the Labour lead is 1-3% and the medium term trend continues to head south. The big question for Labour is what might they do to arrest that trend and counteract the twin pincer movement of the improving economy and Ed's poor personal numbers.

    That is your opinion, an assumption. It is not fact. More polls needed, as Mike says.
  • Financier [8.23 am] It would be interesting to know how Ed M's "in touch" figures break down between graduates and non-graduates.

    Indeed, it would be interesting for all parties, but Labour and UKIP probably rely on the non-graduate vote more than the Coalition parties do. The Clegg/Farage post-debate polling suggested an opposition between "in touch" and "intelligent". Pity they didn't ask "good at maths" - it might even turn out that people wanted a Chancellor they disliked. And the only ex-Chancellor in modern times to have gone on not only to lead his Party but also to win a General Election is John Major. And he was Foreign Secretary for three-quarters of an hour first.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Ladbrokes will have a couple of new general election markets up shortly.

    Who will win most votes?
    Evs Labour
    Evs Conservatives
    33 UKIP
    100 Liberal Democrats


    Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles
    Evs Lab Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    5/4 Cons Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
    8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    66 Lab Most Votes & Cons Most Seats

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    shadsy said:

    8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats

    That doesn't sound bad - on conventional assumptions that should be about half of the NOM zone.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    shadsy said:

    Ladbrokes will have a couple of new general election markets up shortly.

    Who will win most votes?
    Evs Labour
    Evs Conservatives
    33 UKIP
    100 Liberal Democrats


    Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles
    Evs Lab Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    5/4 Cons Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
    8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    66 Lab Most Votes & Cons Most Seats

    I like the 8/1 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats and have just bet on it
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    This YouGov is a clear outlier compared to the other recent polls. Further it's hardly novel for YouGov to throw out a curve ball from time to time.

    Presently the Labour lead is 1-3% and the medium term trend continues to head south. The big question for Labour is what might they do to arrest that trend and counteract the twin pincer movement of the improving economy and Ed's poor personal numbers.

    That is your opinion, an assumption. It is not fact. More polls needed, as Mike says.
    That is your opinion, an assumption. It is not fact. More ARSE needed, as JackW says.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan said:

    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".

    Indeed so.

    It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    Tell us more. What has SeanT been up to now ??

  • JackW said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    Tell us more. What has SeanT been up to now ??

    He's been deprived of them. That's truly scandalous.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Financier said:

    The LD 2010 VI split is very atypical of recent polls. It is LAB37 LD 31

    What have recent polls been showing?
    They've nearly all shown both figures in the 30s - it's not especially atypical. In general, the sample looks fairly normal and the secondaries haven't moved much from what they've been in recent months, which as usual you can interpret either way as leading indicators or as things that have been already factored in.

    To respond to Financier, Labour generally does best (in my patch at least) with people who appear to be either well-educated or lower-income (hard to be sure but one can make a reasonable guess). We find it harder going with people who appear less educated but on higher incomes. To some extent, though, both may reflect the different approaches of the local candidates.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    Tell us more. What has SeanT been up to now ??

    He's been deprived of them. That's truly scandalous.

    Chortle ....

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".

    Indeed so.

    It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.

    Labour are clearly not doing "well", but then again, no-one is doing particularly "well".
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Yes, looks a good price. I am on too.

    shadsy said:

    Ladbrokes will have a couple of new general election markets up shortly.

    Who will win most votes?
    Evs Labour
    Evs Conservatives
    33 UKIP
    100 Liberal Democrats


    Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles
    Evs Lab Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    5/4 Cons Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
    8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    66 Lab Most Votes & Cons Most Seats

    I like the 8/1 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats and have just bet on it
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2014
    Jonathan said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".

    Indeed so.

    It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.

    Labour are clearly not doing "well", but then again, no-one is doing particularly "well".
    It's the curse of relative expectations though.

    Despite being in a coalition (and therefore irritating the self-described "true Tories") and despite being an austerity government and despite the rise of UKIP on their right flank, the Tories seem to have held on to most of their 2010 vote (this poll puts them on -4, which seems to be at the low end of the current range)

    Despite being the sole opposition and despite having a new leader and despite facing an austerity government and despite the LibDems having split Labour doesn't seem to be dominating the political field (again with the caveat that this specific poll puts them at the top of the recent range).

    Fundamentally, it seems that, net net, there has been very little movement in the support of the two competing political positions since 2010 (although obviously with a lot of churning).

    Given the circumstances, this is a great performance by the Tories and a poor performance by Labour. It may be enough to win them the election, but it's not an inspiring strategy for someone who should want to carry the nation with them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Today

    Second round for French local elections.

    Selection meeting for Blackburn CLP. Local papers said over 200 postal votes
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited March 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Out of hiding Flash, I never did see you post any proof to support your lies yesterday. Papers full of doom and gloom today for Bitter Together.


    One for you http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Out off hiding Flash, I never did see you post any proof to support your lies yesterday. Papers full of doom and gloom today for Bitter Together.


    One for you http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia
    I was going to put that one up!

    Also of real interest (for some of us, apologies to the rest)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/29/alistair-carmichael-scottish-independence-poll-losing

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/pro-union-campaign-in-crisis-after-minister-admits-currency-union-ban-was-a-bluff.23823233
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    Tell us more. What has SeanT been up to now ??

    Oi. Right now, I'm here, in God-fearing Connemara, having coffee.


    twitter.com/thomasknox/status/450198151543398400/photo/1
    Begorrah .... To be sure it's a sex and drugs scandal with leprechauns and Irish pixies, you'll be having then ?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited March 2014
    Charles said:



    It's the curse of relative expectations though.

    Fundamentally, it seems that, net net, there has been very little movement in the support of the two competing political positions since 2010 (although obviously with a lot of churning).

    Given the circumstances, this is a great performance by the Tories and a poor performance by Labour. It may be enough to win them the election, but it's not an inspiring strategy for someone who should want to carry the nation with them.

    I agree with your "fundamentally" paragraph - the rest is very subjective. A normal pattern after an election defeat is for oppositions to have a long period of soul-searching and internal wrangling, which Labour has almost entirely avoided (to the annoyance of people on left and right who feel we should have totally changed our approach). Despite that, and despite not having a Blair-style charismatic leadership team, and despite the near-unanimous scepticism to hostility of the press, Labour has remained in front for a very long time, and that seems to me a great performance.

    Leaving aside our competing perspectives, though, the key point is perhaps that nobody is seen by voters as having come up with a clear medium-term sense of direction ("What are they trying to do?". As you say, the basic attitudes of the public are largely unchanged. All that's happened bar a quite modest churn is:

    1. The anti-Conservative part of the LibDems plan to vote against the coalition.
    2. UKIP has hoovered up the protest vote, mostly from the Tories.

    That's it.

    By the way, an anecdote from yesterday's canvass:

    Me: How do you think you'll vote in next year's election?
    Voter: I usually vote Tory and would never vote Labour. However, I prefer you as our MP, so I'm going to vote UKIP, because I think that will let you in by the back door. Fair enough?
    Me: Er......
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Outlier or Budget effect receding ? Ans: Both.

    The receding effect was visible even before with Yougov as it is daily. The monthly one's obviously would not show that as this it their first post budget poll.

    I think the true lead is about 3-4% more than enough for Dr Fisher and Rod C to get excited
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2014

    Today

    Second round for French local elections.

    Selection meeting for Blackburn CLP. Local papers said over 200 postal votes

    Do you have time to mark our cards for some potentially interesting results. Might the Socialists be edged out of Paris ?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2014


    By the way, an anecdote from yesterday's canvass:

    Me: How do you think you'll vote in next year's election?
    Voter: I usually vote Tory and would never vote Labour. However, I prefer you as our MP, so I'm going to vote UKIP, because I think that will let you in by the back door. Fair enough?
    Me: Er......

    That can't be true!

    After all, OGH tells us that Tories are too stupid to vote tactically!

    ps on your substantive point, Labour hasn't had a debate about what they want to do because Blair and Brown created a herd of sheep who have no thoughts beyond power.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Being in remotest Eire I'm not following the news so well. Have they found and shot the "senior minister" who made those currency remarks? Who the F was it? And why did he do it? Not only was it daft (presuming he is a unionist) it is also untrue. It is far from clear there will be a currency union: both sides would have to agree and the English government would have to persuade very skeptical English voters.

    And even if they could persuade the voters, the terms demanded would certainly be very confining for an Indy Scotland - with Scotland's borrowing subject to English veto, Scottish interest rates set by the BoE (with no Scottish say). How could Salmond sell that to Scots?

    The minister must know all this, so why the bizarre 'leak'?

    My guess is that it is a Scottish Coalition minister, covering his back if there's a YES vote, as he wants a political future in Edinburgh after secession.

    Dear dear Sean, I am sure the national newspaper or the Tory minister were lying. After all cowardy custard and ginger nut said it would not happen and they always always tell the truth. Everybody in Scotland knows it is a joke and when they come to discuss where they park their nuclear reactors it will be game on and just a case of what do you want again Alex. Given we will also have veto on rump budget it will be beneficial for them as well, interest rates set by the UK reserve is no issue either.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    There've been a spate of polls showing Labour 1-3% ahead, and the results of secondary questions are still better for the government than prior to the budget, so I imagine this is just one of those odd results you get from time to time.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    shadsy said:

    Ladbrokes will have a couple of new general election markets up shortly.

    Who will win most votes?
    Evs Labour
    Evs Conservatives
    33 UKIP
    100 Liberal Democrats


    Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles
    Evs Lab Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    5/4 Cons Most Votes & Cons Most Seats
    8 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats
    66 Lab Most Votes & Cons Most Seats

    I like the 8/1 Cons Most Votes & Lab Most Seats and have just bet on it
    Mike, I think you are not taking into account that Labour "wasted votes" will also increase, as some of the left leaning Liberal Democrats come back home to Labour.

    The overall effect, I am not sure. It will definitely help Labour in Lab - LD marginals or even in three party contests. { incidentally, it should help Labour in Hampstead ]. At the same time, it might tip over some LD seats to the Tories.

    Nonetheless, 8/1 is a good bet !
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    There've been a spate of polls showing Labour 1-3% ahead, and the results of secondary questions are still better for the government than prior to the budget, so I imagine this is just one of those odd results you get from time to time.

    Spot on.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    My position on the Scottish referendum is simple. It is upto the Scottish people.

    However, if you take the YES position on currency union, it seems for the first time, 8% of a market knows what's best for 100% of the market ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    surbiton said:

    My position on the Scottish referendum is simple. It is upto the Scottish people.

    However, if you take the YES position on currency union, it seems for the first time, 8% of a market knows what's best for 100% of the market ?

    Better than their position on the EU where 2% of the market knows what's best for 100% of the market.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2014
    SeanT said:

    Being in remotest Eire I'm not following the news so well. Have they found and shot the "senior minister" who made those currency remarks? Who the F was it? And why did he do it? Not only was it daft (presuming he is a unionist) it is also untrue. It is far from clear there will be a currency union: both sides would have to agree and the English government would have to persuade very skeptical English voters.

    The English voters won't particularly care, except to the extent that they'll be expecting the politicians to sort something out that won't mess up their business too much, which would imply either a currency union or a separate currency but with a peg.
    SeanT said:

    And even if they could persuade the voters, the terms demanded would certainly be very confining for an Indy Scotland - with Scotland's borrowing subject to English veto, Scottish interest rates set by the BoE (with no Scottish say). How could Salmond sell that to Scots?

    The selling job is done at that point, and the Scottish voters now want the same thing as the English voters, which is as little disruption as possible. Initially Scotland won't have much leeway with borrowing and interest rates in any case because the markets won't be any less forgiving than the English, especially if they need to hold an exchange rate peg. And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Out of hiding Flash, I never did see you post any proof to support your lies yesterday. Papers full of doom and gloom today for Bitter Together.


    One for you http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia
    It's not all bad news - you'll be keeping the nukes after all......
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited March 2014

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Out of hiding Flash, I never did see you post any proof to support your lies yesterday. Papers full of doom and gloom today for Bitter Together.


    One for you http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia
    It's not all bad news - you'll be keeping the nukes after all......
    Only for the short term and we will get more than our pound of flesh for that

    ps I see Flash is still in hiding after being shown to be a cowardly liar yesterday.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.

    I'm not too sure you've got the hang of this Coalition business.

    The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.

    The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @malcolmg

    ' I am sure the national newspaper or the Tory minister were lying'

    First we were told it was an 'unnamed' minister,then Joyce tells us it was Alexander then the story changed again to a Tory minister & that the currency union was in exchange for keeping the nukes at Faslane.
    Then Sturgeon pops up and says no way to nukes being kept at Faslane in exchange for currency union.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

    you really have no clue, I see as ever you promote Scotland and fairness, but then again you are Scottish are you not.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....
    It could be tricky for a peg, but how do you hound a currency union to destruction? The whole point is that there's only one unit of exchange, so you can't sell the Scottish ones for English ones or vice versa. This is why there's still a Euro.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".

    Indeed so.

    It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.

    You are going to look incredibly foolish if the next two or three polls confirm that the bounce has subsided Jack. They may not, but why not wait and see?
  • "First post Farage/Clegg debate Euros poll has UKIP down to 3rd place"

    Eh???
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Jack

    Leaked results from France will start to arrive from 6 PM (places where the polling day is until 5 PM). Official results won't be declared until Paris closes the polls at 8 PM French time. However, twitter will be full....and obviously you can get full results from key "villages" in La Reunion!!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, this may well be an outlier, but even if it is an outlier it does at least suggest that Labour remain in the lead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    john_zims said:

    @malcolmg

    ' I am sure the national newspaper or the Tory minister were lying'

    First we were told it was an 'unnamed' minister,then Joyce tells us it was Alexander then the story changed again to a Tory minister & that the currency union was in exchange for keeping the nukes at Faslane.
    Then Sturgeon pops up and says no way to nukes being kept at Faslane in exchange for currency union.

    John, the unionists are panicking , they are disjointed , racked with in-fighting and have no good story to sell.
    Their private polling will be telling them exactly where they are and the revelations that Darling is telling the treasury what to do and say does not make it much better. Even the donkey Carmichael has grasped what is happening. YES remain cool , calm and collected.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....
    It could be tricky for a peg, but how do you hound a currency union to destruction? The whole point is that there's only one unit of exchange, so you can't sell the Scottish ones for English ones or vice versa. This is why there's still a Euro.
    LOL
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Might be time to retire the phrase "rent boy" - something pretty sinister and homophobic about it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The currency story is bad for No because it puts all of their dumb claims under the spotlight.
    Any unionist who argues otherwise has taken leave of their critical capacities.
    Bloody dreadful campaign - the scare stories just aren't working.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

    you really have no clue, I see as ever you promote Scotland and fairness, but then again you are Scottish are you not.
    I find your posting persona rather unconvincing. A Rangers supporter who describes the Union Jack as The Butcher's Apron. Pull the other one. I'd put you down as an Argentine of mixed South German and Irish descent.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

    Relatively harmless fun being had by a single man. So you have never broken the law then?

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    PB was in anticipation last night of the almighty crossover, you could sense the expectation.....and then the barrel full of squirrels arrives in the way of the Yougov. Gnashing of teeth and "outliers" a.o.t.s.

    PB....one of the most entertaining sites on the internet.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2014
    Labour selections in Sheffield Heeley (majority 14.2% over LD) and Batley & Spen (maj 8.5% over Con) will take place on May 10. Both AWS.

    In Sheffield there are already some declared runners. In Batley & Spen 1 public (or at least I found just one) so far and it's a more interesting place to check what an AWS can produce there (other than cutting out soe Asian men after Dewsbury, Blackburn, Burnley also got AWS)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and clearly Labour is relying on the 35% strategy.. Both Douglas Alexander and Caroline Flint showed clear signs of complacency this morning.

    You know my views on the pogo pollsters so enough said. Rather sickened at the sensationalist "Rent Boy" headlines in 2 papers today. What the Tory MP is alleged to have done if only relating to sex is not a criminal offence and frankly what is the difference from a footballer taking some young woman to a 5 star hotel and buying her expensive champagne in order to get sex? If national security is not compromised it is nobody's business. Is Rupert Murdoch trying to undermine the good news about the first "gay marriages" in England?

    Off to take my lovely mother out to lunch as normal on a Sunday.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Its always fun when people describe the unhelpful polls as "outliers".

    Indeed so.

    It allows fools to propagate the idea that Labour are doing well and then the "fun" becomes profitable.

    You are going to look incredibly foolish if the next two or three polls confirm that the bounce has subsided Jack. They may not, but why not wait and see?
    It's what I do.

    As the founder, CEO and general bodacious genius behind ARSE it is my calling to ensure that followers are fully appreciative of the way the wind is blowing before lower division commentators reflect on new information.

    Such, almost mystic, powers have allowed my adherents to cash in and in recent years ensure that the financial consequences of the nightmare of the Brown years are diminished.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Thanks Andrea.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

    you really have no clue, I see as ever you promote Scotland and fairness, but then again you are Scottish are you not.
    I find your posting persona rather unconvincing. A Rangers supporter who describes the Union Jack as The Butcher's Apron. Pull the other one. I'd put you down as an Argentine of mixed South German and Irish descent.
    Monica, Scottish born and bred , but with Irish grandparents on one side. Ex Rangers supporter would better describe me and love Germany but have no knowledge of Argentina other than it looks like a nice place.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Morning all and clearly Labour is relying on the 35% strategy.. Both Douglas Alexander and Caroline Flint showed clear signs of complacency this morning.

    You know my views on the pogo pollsters so enough said. Rather sickened at the sensationalist "Rent Boy" headlines in 2 papers today. What the Tory MP is alleged to have done if only relating to sex is not a criminal offence and frankly what is the difference from a footballer taking some young woman to a 5 star hotel and buying her expensive champagne in order to get sex? If national security is not compromised it is nobody's business. Is Rupert Murdoch trying to undermine the good news about the first "gay marriages" in England?

    Off to take my lovely mother out to lunch as normal on a Sunday.

    Well said Easterross. It's like going back to the 1970s reading this. That the Sun sent four reporters to Brazil to ruin this guy's life is deeply disturbing. Live and let live.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

    Relatively harmless fun being had by a single man. So you have never broken the law then?

    Millionaire gentry like Jack have no need to care about the law, it does not apply to them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

    Relatively harmless fun being had by a single man. So you have never broken the law then?

    MP resigns as PPS because of "relatively harmless fun"

    It's a theory.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    SeanT said:

    A currency union based on the idea that one side of the union is planning to quit in half a decade is inherently unstable, and would be immediately attacked by the markets. Look at how speculators attacked the euro whenever there was a hint that one country might quit. Look at the pain Germany has gone through to try and save that shared currency.

    Speculators never attacked the Euro. Speculators attacked the sovereign debt of countries that looked like they wouldn't be able to pay it in either the Euro or their own. This could be a problem for Scotland if the markets think they'll eventually default and/or devalue, but it's a problem for Scotland whatever currency they use. The workaround is to borrow in foreign currency (including by saying you'll honour bonds in English pounds, in the event that Scotland no longer uses UK ones).

    In any case in the event that Scotland's banks started falling apart, the English will be sufficiently integrated that they'll be on the hook like Germany was for Euro area banks, regardless of the currency they're using. If you're going to end up with a de-facto responsibility for potential liabilities, you may as well negotiate a proper banking union so you keep some control over the risks.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    JackW said:

    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.

    I'm not too sure you've got the hang of this Coalition business.

    The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.

    The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.

    Everyone knows it's a Tory dominated government. That's why it is so stupid of Clegg to try and campaign on the coalition's record as a whole. That's plainly going to benefit the Tories not the Lib Dems. Though as I've said before, maybe that is Clegg's strategy. What was the famous wikileaks quote on the coalition? 'Mr Cameron would make a public show of including Mr Clegg, but would be taking all the important decision himself.' Sums it up.

    This is an interesting story in the IoS. Labour are angry about Cameron cutting the amount of time Labour gets to spend with the civil service before the next election. Any justification?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-labour-will-be-given-only-six-months-to-plan-policies-in-whitehall-before-the-general-election-in-2015-9223706.html

    Expect any protest from those constitutional reformers the Lib Dems? I expect not. As Clegg allegedly said over boundary reform he's not prepared to be the last ever leader of the Lib Dems. He wants to stop a Labour majority from happening and is determined they they go for a coalition with the Lib Dems rather than try to govern alone. Denying access to the civil service, whom the Lib Dems will know well, enhances the case for a coalition. Labour should kick up a fuss. Jack Straw could be of use here.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Might be time to retire the phrase "rent boy" - something pretty sinister and homophobic about it.

    It would seem my post fell foul of the political correctness of Vanilla.

    reclassifying rent boys is as politically correct as reclassifying prostitutes as "sex workers"

    Next you will be telling me that the BBC will be editing the Dambusters film because Guy Gibson's dog was called by an name that we are now no longer legally allowed to use(not that one would) even though black guys use it in common parlance.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

    Relatively harmless fun being had by a single man. So you have never broken the law then?

    Millionaire gentry like Jack have no need to care about the law, it does not apply to them.
    I like this new SNP legal line.



  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

    you really have no clue, I see as ever you promote Scotland and fairness, but then again you are Scottish are you not.
    I find your posting persona rather unconvincing. A Rangers supporter who describes the Union Jack as The Butcher's Apron. Pull the other one. I'd put you down as an Argentine of mixed South German and Irish descent.
    Monica, Scottish born and bred , but with Irish grandparents on one side. Ex Rangers supporter would better describe me and love Germany but have no knowledge of Argentina other than it looks like a nice place.
    Irish on one side. Sudeten German on the other?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2014
    The big question is why Dinky needed a PPS afterall

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I shan't spoil the race (had a quick check of the last thread and it seems a few will be opting for highlight), but I've seen it and shall put up the post-race piece fairly soon.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Majority of VI do not expect Labour to keep their Promises

    If Labour were to win the next election, do you think they would or would not deliver on their current promises?
    Would probably deliver on most or all of their current promises: 8
    Would probably deliver on the majority of their current promises: 25
    Would probably fail to deliver on the majority of their current promises: 35
    Would probably fail to deliver most or all of their current promises: 20
    DK: 12
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    He is a well known craic dealer...

    Tumbleweed....
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    Tell us more. What has SeanT been up to now ??

    Oi. Right now, I'm here, in God-fearing Connemara, having coffee.


    twitter.com/thomasknox/status/450198151543398400/photo/1
    Begorrah .... To be sure it's a sex and drugs scandal with leprechauns and Irish pixies, you'll be having then ?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.

    I'm not too sure you've got the hang of this Coalition business.

    The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.

    The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.

    Everyone knows it's a Tory dominated government. That's why it is so stupid of Clegg to try and campaign on the coalition's record as a whole. That's plainly going to benefit the Tories not the Lib Dems. Though as I've said before, maybe that is Clegg's strategy. What was the famous wikileaks quote on the coalition? 'Mr Cameron would make a public show of including Mr Clegg, but would be taking all the important decision himself.' Sums it up.
    Forgive me Frank but you seem unable to take on board the very simple fact that the LibDems and Conservatives are agreed on the direction of economic policy. Indeed one of the biggest economic reforms of the Coalition, that of pension and saving reform came from LibDem minister Steve Webb.

    They are, to coin a phrase, both in it together and at the election both will be able and ready to "campaign on the Coalition's record as a whole." The rest is up to the punters.



  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    PB was in anticipation last night of the almighty crossover, you could sense the expectation.....and then the barrel full of squirrels arrives in the way of the Yougov. Gnashing of teeth and "outliers" a.o.t.s.

    PB....one of the most entertaining sites on the internet.

    These graphs are beautiful though, and you do get a nice crossover when you toggle between "%" and "Change"
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    It's good to have an old-fashioned sex and drugs scandal.

    No it isn't. These things are private matters. The prurient tabloid headlines destroy people's lives.
    What destroys "people's lives" is their own behaviour not the reporting of questionable and potentially illegal activity by politicians who should know better.

    Relatively harmless fun being had by a single man. So you have never broken the law then?

    MP resigns as PPS because of "relatively harmless fun"

    It's a theory.

    PPS resigns because curtain-twitching social conservatives seek to tell others how to live their lives.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Might be time to retire the phrase "rent boy" - something pretty sinister and homophobic about it.

    It would seem my post fell foul of the political correctness of Vanilla.

    reclassifying rent boys is as politically correct as reclassifying prostitutes as "sex workers"

    Next you will be telling me that the BBC will be editing the Dambusters film because Guy Gibson's dog was called by an name that we are now no longer legally allowed to use(not that one would) even though black guys use it in common parlance.
    Why not just call him a male prostitute, which is what he is?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    surbiton said:
    I've been to the synagogue in Kochi (Cochin), Kerala - fascinating place, again another community that has more or less died out.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    On the issue of the anonymous minister, calling for him/her to be shot is a little silly. But they need to come out, say it was a mistake and resign from the government. Not only does the comment suggest that a currency union is going to happen, it also suggests Better Together are lying. And if they're lying about this what else might they be lying about? It could hardly be worse.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    . And in any case he can say it's temporary: Do the deal for five years and see how things go.

    Any currency union that declares itself to be "temporary" will be hounded to destruction by the market from day one. Whatever the realpolitic, it has to declare itself permanent and immutable, like the Faslane base we're getting in return.....

    you really have no clue, I see as ever you promote Scotland and fairness, but then again you are Scottish are you not.
    I find your posting persona rather unconvincing. A Rangers supporter who describes the Union Jack as The Butcher's Apron. Pull the other one. I'd put you down as an Argentine of mixed South German and Irish descent.
    Monica, Scottish born and bred , but with Irish grandparents on one side. Ex Rangers supporter would better describe me and love Germany but have no knowledge of Argentina other than it looks like a nice place.
    Irish on one side. Sudeten German on the other?
    Monica, are you unable to read the Queen's English.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    On the issue of the anonymous minister, calling for him/her to be shot is a little silly. But they need to come out, say it was a mistake and resign from the government. Not only does the comment suggest that a currency union is going to happen, it also suggests Better Together are lying. And if they're lying about this what else might they be lying about? It could hardly be worse.

    Yes not much need to hunt the mole if it is rubbish, Also if you follow the campaign you know Better Together are lying.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.

    I'm not too sure you've got the hang of this Coalition business.

    The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.

    The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.

    Everyone knows it's a Tory dominated government. That's why it is so stupid of Clegg to try and campaign on the coalition's record as a whole. That's plainly going to benefit the Tories not the Lib Dems. Though as I've said before, maybe that is Clegg's strategy. What was the famous wikileaks quote on the coalition? 'Mr Cameron would make a public show of including Mr Clegg, but would be taking all the important decision himself.' Sums it up.
    Forgive me Frank but you seem unable to take on board the very simple fact that the LibDems and Conservatives are agreed on the direction of economic policy. Indeed one of the biggest economic reforms of the Coalition, that of pension and saving reform came from LibDem minister Steve Webb.

    They are, to coin a phrase, both in it together and at the election both will be able and ready to "campaign on the Coalition's record as a whole." The rest is up to the punters.



    By Lib Dem you mean Clegg, Laws and Alexander? What's in it for the Lib Dems in targeting the grey vote?

    The Lib Dems fought the election as a social democratic party. Clegg has used the coaition as an excuse to abandon that. It's no wonder people are disgusted with him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2014
    SeanT said:

    What's more, it's in England's national interest to refuse a formal currency union as it means all those nice finance jobs will move to London from Edinburgh.

    London will get those either way, I'd have thought.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It would be ridiculous for the LibDems to campaign in 2015 against their own record in government, or against the principle of coalitions in general.

    The LibDems are now a blooded party of government, with all the consequences of that, good or otherwise.

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Those are truly dreadful figures for the Lib Dems on economic management. Only 6% trust them most on the economy. Going from a party of opposition to one of government has done them no favours. I can't have much sympathy though. By saying Labour can't be trusted on the recovery and the Tories on fairness, they're tacitly acknowledging that they don't really disagree with the Tories on basic economic policy. Other than on tax cut priorities they don't seem to have criticised Thatcher inspired Tory economic ideas at all. I find this remarkable.

    I'm not too sure you've got the hang of this Coalition business.

    The economic policy of the government is a Coalition one. They are agreed on the core themes of the long term economic strategy with agreed elements of both parties enacted such as the LibDem tax threshold rise and the Conservative top rate cut/rise - whether you count the one month out of thirteen years of Labour government as such.

    The irony is that much of the Coalitions economic policy is driven by the hand Labour dealt it, as indeed the majority of the voters believe.

    Everyone knows it's a Tory dominated government. That's why it is so stupid of Clegg to try and campaign on the coalition's record as a whole. That's plainly going to benefit the Tories not the Lib Dems. Though as I've said before, maybe that is Clegg's strategy. What was the famous wikileaks quote on the coalition? 'Mr Cameron would make a public show of including Mr Clegg, but would be taking all the important decision himself.' Sums it up.
    Forgive me Frank but you seem unable to take on board the very simple fact that the LibDems and Conservatives are agreed on the direction of economic policy. Indeed one of the biggest economic reforms of the Coalition, that of pension and saving reform came from LibDem minister Steve Webb.

    They are, to coin a phrase, both in it together and at the election both will be able and ready to "campaign on the Coalition's record as a whole." The rest is up to the punters.



  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2014
    @FrankBooth

    ' But they need to come out, say it was a mistake and resign from the government.'

    Are you sure they exist and that this is not just another made up story?

    Even the SNP has said that half the story is rubbish.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    None of the Yes campaigners on here have given a sound reason why an independent Scotland would want London running its economic policy. I suspect the reason is that they and Salmond do not want this, any more than England wants a currency union.

    They just need to pretend to want a currency union in order to hoodwink enough of the undecided voters to vote Yes, then pretend that the nasty English have spurned them. It is just gamesmanship.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    A currency union based on the idea that one side of the union is planning to quit in half a decade is inherently unstable, and would be immediately attacked by the markets. Look at how speculators attacked the euro whenever there was a hint that one country might quit. Look at the pain Germany has gone through to try and save that shared currency.

    Speculators never attacked the Euro. Speculators attacked the sovereign debt of countries that looked like they wouldn't be able to pay it in either the Euro or their own. This could be a problem for Scotland if the markets think they'll eventually default and/or devalue, but it's a problem for Scotland whatever currency they use. The workaround is to borrow in foreign currency (including by saying you'll honour bonds in English pounds, in the event that Scotland no longer uses UK ones).

    In any case in the event that Scotland's banks started falling apart, the English will be sufficiently integrated that they'll be on the hook like Germany was for Euro area banks, regardless of the currency they're using. If you're going to end up with a de-facto responsibility for potential liabilities, you may as well negotiate a proper banking union so you keep some control over the risks.
    Piffle.

    What's more, it's in England's national interest to refuse a formal currency union as it means all those nice finance jobs will move to London from Edinburgh.

    But if course, in Salmond-world, England will never act in her own interests, but will always do what's best for Scotland, first. Especially during a messy and acrimonious divorce.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bad poll for the YES campaign - Labour nailed on again so safe to vote NO.

    Out of hiding Flash, I never did see you post any proof to support your lies yesterday. Papers full of doom and gloom today for Bitter Together.

    Do they not have google in Invermong ? Search yourself if it's not beyond your IQ.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    On the issue of the anonymous minister, calling for him/her to be shot is a little silly. But they need to come out, say it was a mistake and resign from the government. Not only does the comment suggest that a currency union is going to happen, it also suggests Better Together are lying. And if they're lying about this what else might they be lying about? It could hardly be worse.

    We seem to be expecting politicians to be able to predict the future with 100% accuracy. Eck started it, with his ludicrous contention that there would be a currency union despite the fact that it is not within his control to deliver one. Now all party leaders on the Unionist side state that they do not wish to agree such a currency union - but who's to say that someone else will not be in charge, or there will be some sort of coalition, or even that events dear boy make such a union look more enticing in the future?

    For a minister to say that he thinks there will be a currency union, despite current Unionist politicians coming out against it, seems to me to be a reasonable opinion to express.

This discussion has been closed.