politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

Superb David.

Oh and first.

https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1176459040500662272

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

Any betting implications?

Are we still laying 2019 GE?

Should Tories be 1.41 most seats?

Fucked if I know. Like seriously. Anyone who has not cashed out of these markets is a braver mofo than me.

I cashed out!

I'm still laying 2019 for a general election. A general election will occur when it is in the interests of a majority of the House of Commons. That moment has not yet been reached and I don't think it will be reached for quite a while.

Laying 2020 would be brave, however.

And of course, the point at which an election is in the interests of a majority of the Commons, will probably be the precise moment that an election is NOT in Boris's interest.

BBC saying Tory MPs not allowed to talk publicly!

Danny565 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

Any betting implications?

Are we still laying 2019 GE?

Should Tories be 1.41 most seats?

Fucked if I know. Like seriously. Anyone who has not cashed out of these markets is a braver mofo than me.

I cashed out!

I'm still laying 2019 for a general election. A general election will occur when it is in the interests of a majority of the House of Commons. That moment has not yet been reached and I don't think it will be reached for quite a while.

Laying 2020 would be brave, however.

And of course, the point at which an election is in the interests of a majority of the Commons, will probably be the precise moment that an election is NOT in Boris's interest.

That looks far more likely than not. Though Boris Johnson may well be history by the time of the next election. He might well not last the week.

Has Swinson opined yet?

On topic, great article!

Gardenwalker said:

Has Swinson opined yet?

Yes. BoZo should resign.

HYUFD said:

Yes the diehard Remainers will enjoy their moment in the sun (though US style political appointments of Supreme Court justices are now inevitable) but in the long term Boris will benefit.

He and Cummings now have the narrative they want, they doing everything possible to deliver the will of the people against the diehard Remainers in Parliament and the judiciary who want to extend again and ultimately likely revoke. The more that narrative continues the more they squeeze the Brexit Party vote in the Tories favour while Remainers split between the LDs and Corbyn Labour.

Plus of course Boris will resign as PM and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket to continue the battle with the diehard Remainers in opposition rather than stay PM and agree to extend

Yes. In common with 52% of the country's voters, I have bad experiences of giving it the early cheer when you think you've won

Well well well. I've been offline, but a unanimous decision feels like it speaks strongly as to competence of the government even if one supported them.

How long did it take for someone to say all 11 justices are remainers?

And those saying us style political appointments are now inevitable are making a self fulfilling prophecy. As someone who was clear if the law was there were no limits on the pm I'd accept that, that response is very throwing toys out of the pram.

In the long run I feel this is much ado about nothing. This Parliament won't pass Brexit. Next Parliament will be decided by the voters. How many votes will be swung by today?

There will be no election until after October 31.

The only question now is whether Boris conclude a deal, ask for an extension under the Benn Act, or resign on the eve of October 31.

I rather suspect the latter.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

All these tweets like bad al saying he lied to the queen - is that actionable?

In theory... and would be fun to watch.

He'd have to offer evidence of reasons he wasn't prepared to share with the Supreme Court, who were quietly scathing about his lack of evidence.

The SC were very careful about not saying he lied - so careful that they refrained from saying he didn't, as well.

On a balance of probabilities, it would be not unreasonable to conclude him a liar in this case.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/3hobbits/status/1176460703466688514

Brexit party all over the press today. And sounding far more reasonable and organised than the Bluekip party.

NorthofStoke said:

The challenge facing Corbyn is triggering a VOC vote without setting in chain an early GE.

Quite

Given the 14 day window for another government to form, followed by a 4/5 week campaign, the GE can't be until November now, can it?

Can it?

Cummings will be gone by the morning .

Bozo needs to sacrifice his puppet master to have any chance of remaining PM.

HYUFD said:

Yes the diehard Remainers will enjoy their moment in the sun (though US style political appointments of Supreme Court justices are now inevitable) but in the long term Boris will benefit.

He and Cummings now have the narrative they want, they doing everything possible to deliver the will of the people against the diehard Remainers in Parliament and the judiciary who want to extend again and ultimately likely revoke. The more that narrative continues the more they squeeze the Brexit Party vote in the Tories favour while Remainers split between the LDs and Corbyn Labour.

Plus of course Boris will resign as PM and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket to continue the battle with the diehard Remainers in opposition rather than stay PM and agree to extend

“Of course Boris will resign as PM” - another HY prediction for the anthology?

Have you ever considered that actions create reactions?

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1176461566277038080

Some damning extracts:

"It is not suggested in these appeals that Her Majesty was other than obliged by constitutional convention to accept that advice. In the circumstances, we express no view on that matter. That situation does, however, place on the Prime Minister a constitutional responsibility, as the only person with power to do so, to have regard to all relevant interests, including the interests of Parliament" (para 30).

"The Prime Minister’s reaction was to describe the September sitting as a “rigmarole”. Nowhere is there a hint that the Prime Minister, in giving advice to Her Majesty, is more than simply the leader of the Government seeking to promote its own policies; he has a constitutional responsibility, as we have explained in para 30 above" (para 60).

"It is impossible for us to conclude, on the evidence which has been put before us, that there was any reason - let alone a good reason - to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament for five weeks, from 9th or 12th September until 14th October." (Para 61).

In other words, at worst Johnson lied to the Queen, and at best he failed in his fundamental constitutional responsibility in advising the Queen. And it is telling that the PM gave no witness statement, very heavily implying he wanted to avoid a perjury rap.

It is incredibly damning, and Johnson's position is utterly indefensible (although defend it his acolytes no doubt will).

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1176461748624400384

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Yes the diehard Remainers will enjoy their moment in the sun (though US style political appointments of Supreme Court justices are now inevitable)...

Why ?

Because millions like him will say this decision is political and the judges want to remain, and governments wont want to risk such humiliation again.

Chris_A said:

There is surely a prima facie case to be made for misconduct in public office against Johnson and Rees-Mogg at the very least.

No, there is not.

So, clearly, not great for Johnson. He's officially a liar and a criminal. However, if what he wants is a People vs Parliament election where he runs on the softhead populist ticket of "Give me a mandate to No Deal and stick it to the Establishment Quislings!", then I do not immediately see how this hurts him. Could even help.

Gardenwalker said:

There will be no election until after October 31.

The only question now is whether Boris conclude a deal, ask for an extension under the Benn Act, or resign on the eve of October 31.

I rather suspect the latter.

An election is quite possibly in no-one’s interests at the present time.

Except possibly the LDs and SNP, and I suspect the former would only want to do it once Brexit had been safely delayed.

Sandpit said:

If Corbyn doesn’t call a vote of confidence in the government tomorrow, then what’s the point of him?

There is no point to the cowardly commie.

Just over 3 hours until Corbyn misses another open goal. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1176462398070362112

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Some damning extracts:

"It is not suggested in these appeals that Her Majesty was other than obliged by constitutional convention to accept that advice. In the circumstances, we express no view on that matter. That situation does, however, place on the Prime Minister a constitutional responsibility, as the only person with power to do so, to have regard to all relevant interests, including the interests of Parliament" (para 30).

"The Prime Minister’s reaction was to describe the September sitting as a “rigmarole”. Nowhere is there a hint that the Prime Minister, in giving advice to Her Majesty, is more than simply the leader of the Government seeking to promote its own policies; he has a constitutional responsibility, as we have explained in para 30 above" (para 60).

"It is impossible for us to conclude, on the evidence which has been put before us, that there was any reason - let alone a good reason - to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament for five weeks, from 9th or 12th September until 14th October." (Para 61).

In other words, at worst Johnson lied to the Queen, and at best he failed in his fundamental constitutional responsibility in advising the Queen. And it is telling that the PM gave no witness statement, very heavily implying he wanted to avoid a perjury rap.

It is incredibly damning, and Johnson's position is utterly indefensible (although defend it his acolytes no doubt will).

I suggested a while ago that the court might adopt a test akin to the employment law concept of the implied duty of trust and confidence, where an employer may prefer its own interest, but must take into account the impact of its actions on others and not act in a manner calculated to destroy or seriously damage the relationship of trust and confidence between employer and employee. That does look quite like that kind of test.

Humiliation is an overused word, but a unanimous ruling feels like one. However parliament didnt need the court case to act, so we need to see what they will actually do. And how much BXP rise in the polls

Gardenwalker said:

There will be no election until after October 31.

The only question now is whether Boris conclude a deal, ask for an extension under the Benn Act, or resign on the eve of October 31.

I rather suspect the latter.

If Johnson resigns just before 31st Oct but remains as leader for the following GE, he will be torn apart by journalists. "You chose to resign as PM, but now you want to be PM again!"

TheScreamingEagles said:

I urge everyone to read the ruling, it is magnificent and will stand the test of time and be a precedent all across the world for all times.

This isn't something that is 'limited to the present circumstances only.'

I agree.
I quoted the relevant bit on the previous thread, and think it bears repetition. It is very short, very simple and utterly non partisan.

It does set a limit on the power of the executive which was previously not there (or at best unexpressed), but it seems an entirely reasonable limit, and I would genuinely like to know with what rule those who are condemning this judgment would like to replace it.

...the relevant limit on the power to prorogue is this: that a decision to prorogue (or advise the monarch to prorogue) will be unlawful if the prorogation has the effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive. In judging any justification which might be put forward, the court must of course be sensitive to the responsibilities and experience of the Prime Minister and proceed with appropriate caution.
If the prorogation does have that effect, without reasonable justification, there is no need for the court to consider whether the Prime Minister's motive or purpose was unlawful....

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Superb David.

Oh and first.

We've had two astonishing events today.

Firstly the Supreme Court decision and probably more importantly @TSE has enjoyed a lawful "first" on PB.

Remarkable ....

It wasn't lawful, I erm was the editor and publisher of this thread.

eek said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Yes the diehard Remainers will enjoy their moment in the sun (though US style political appointments of Supreme Court justices are now inevitable)...

Why ?

Because millions like him will say this decision is political and the judges want to remain, and governments wont want to risk such humiliation again.

Welcome to Brexitland were all decisions are because they are out to get you.

He is right though. As with a partisan speaker our politicians see the value now, and However unfair they will seek to stack the courts if they can. The contempt from government sources before the decision made that clear.

Polruan said:

Sandpit said:

If Corbyn doesn’t call a vote of confidence in the government tomorrow, then what’s the point of him?

Probably the point of him right now is to not be incited to cause a GE in a way that hands control of the timetable to Johnson at a point where timing and the ability of Parliament to hold the government to account is vital. Isn’t the principal point of the opposition to do that which the government would least want them to do?

The point of the Opposition is also to fulfill constitutional duties. If parliament does not have confidence in the government it should vote to express that. Our system doesn't work otherwise.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1176463182954733569

dr_spyn said:

Just over 3 hours until Corbyn misses another open goal. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1176462398070362112

I am sure it will be fine. He will bash out socialist style back to the 70s greatest hits and the crowd will all sing his name.

Polruan said:

Sandpit said:

If Corbyn doesn’t call a vote of confidence in the government tomorrow, then what’s the point of him?

Probably the point of him right now is to not be incited to cause a GE in a way that hands control of the timetable to Johnson at a point where timing and the ability of Parliament to hold the government to account is vital. Isn’t the principal point of the opposition to do that which the government would least want them to do?

Indeed.

Though with Corbyn, you never know! He's not the brightest pea in the pod and I would not be surprised if he now calls a GE.

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In the long run I feel this is much ado about nothing. This Parliament won't pass Brexit. Next Parliament will be decided by the voters. How many votes will be swung by today?

The PM breaking the law IS a big deal.

But as to political impact, I think you are spot on.

What law did he break?

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1176461748624400384

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1176461566277038080

In the unlikely event they pushed the right number of letters through the ‘22, it would be interesting to see the result.

I expect Boris would win the vote but unconvincingly.

Has to be an election. can't see any other way out of this, and even that might not be it!

Philip_Thompson said:

In the long run I feel this is much ado about nothing. This Parliament won't pass Brexit. Next Parliament will be decided by the voters. How many votes will be swung by today?

A few, not many. Thst not a single judge agreed with the government makes it harder to defend or rather ignore the action and the judgement itself.

I'd believe it was the plan to make it a people vs establishment election and this will shore up some votes, but losing so decisively is not a good look

Gabs2 said:

As terrible as MPs have behaved, I still don't think they are immoral enough to make Corbyn PM. It would be them publicly voting to say they do not care about the place of Jews in this country.

FFS.

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In the long run I feel this is much ado about nothing. This Parliament won't pass Brexit. Next Parliament will be decided by the voters. How many votes will be swung by today?

The PM breaking the law IS a big deal.

But as to political impact, I think you are spot on.

"Breaking the Law", FFS! It's hardly like punching someone in the street, where the illegality is obvious beforehand. Instead, it took 3 court cases - with the English court, significantly from a political perspective, declining to intervene in the government's decision - before the action was declared illegal retrospectively.

I think Boris will take an inevitable hit in the polls for "losing", but the man in the street will also not fail to notice how Parliament, the Speaker, and now the Courts are blatantly stacked against what they voted for...

Gardenwalker said:

nico67 said:

Cummings will be gone by the morning .

Bozo needs to sacrifice his puppet master to have any chance of remaining PM.

Cummings is due to have surgery anyway for “something which requires anaesthetic”.

I’ve always assumed it is a much-overdue lobotomy.

A labotomy is only possible if there is some grey matter there to remove.

So, what should happen next? (Note: 'should' rather than 'will').

Sensible MPs should be trying to work together to draw the UK back from the increasingly damaging polarisation of opinion, and to restore the old conventions of acting honourably and fairly which have served us well for many decades. In practical terms that should mean the government eating humble pie on this, firing Cummings, and restoring the whip to the 21 refuseniks. The No Dealers should stop no-dealing. The opposition parties should be careful not to inflame things by calling for scalps (except Boris's, natch).

On Brexit, there is only one way forward, which is first of all for everyone agree that an extension is indispensable given the division and chaos, and secondly for a GE or referendum to decide what to do next.

Unfortunately I don't think any of this is going to happen, except that that there will be a highly controversial and polarising further extension, and probably a very divisive GE.

Jamei said:

What law did he break?

The one that says you must not prorogue parliament for improper purposes.

Hot off the press today.

https://twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1176465158744477696

Shrewd move.

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1176465496063008770

rottenborough said:

nico67 said:

Cummings will be gone by the morning .

Bozo needs to sacrifice his puppet master to have any chance of remaining PM.

Yep. Tory MPs will settle for nothing less now.

Because they are such a strong bunch?

Danny565 said:

NorthofStoke said:

The challenge facing Corbyn is triggering a VOC vote without setting in chain an early GE.

Easy enough: Parliament passing a "humble address" asking Her Maj to summon a new PM (Clarke/Harman/Benn/whoever) would stop an election being triggered.

It was possible before that Johnson might have advised Liz to ignore Parliament, and just let the two-week clock run down to an election - but, now, there's much more chance that she will call bullshit on Johnson's "advice".

The Queen must be so upset for multiple reasons. Steaming I imagine. Will she summon Johnson to Balmoral to explain himself or tender his resignation?