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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit
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Oh and first.
This isn't something that is 'limited to the present circumstances only.'
ROFL
He and Cummings now have the narrative they want, they doing everything possible to deliver the will of the people against the diehard Remainers in Parliament and the judiciary who want to extend again and ultimately likely revoke. The more that narrative continues the more they squeeze the Brexit Party vote in the Tories favour while Remainers split between the LDs and Corbyn Labour.
Plus of course Boris will resign as PM and lead the Tories into opposition on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket to continue the battle with the diehard Remainers in opposition rather than stay PM and agree to extend
A heroine and brave woman .
How long did it take for someone to say all 11 justices are remainers?
And those saying us style political appointments are now inevitable are making a self fulfilling prophecy. As someone who was clear if the law was there were no limits on the pm I'd accept that, that response is very throwing toys out of the pram.
The only question now is whether Boris conclude a deal, ask for an extension under the Benn Act, or resign on the eve of October 31.
I rather suspect the latter.
He'd have to offer evidence of reasons he wasn't prepared to share with the Supreme Court, who were quietly scathing about his lack of evidence.
The SC were very careful about not saying he lied - so careful that they refrained from saying he didn't, as well.
On a balance of probabilities, it would be not unreasonable to conclude him a liar in this case.
2020 is looking most likely to me.
Given the 14 day window for another government to form, followed by a 4/5 week campaign, the GE can't be until November now, can it?
Can it?
Bozo needs to sacrifice his puppet master to have any chance of remaining PM.
“Of course Boris will resign as PM” - another HY prediction for the anthology?
Have you ever considered that actions create reactions?
"It is not suggested in these appeals that Her Majesty was other than obliged by constitutional convention to accept that advice. In the circumstances, we express no view on that matter. That situation does, however, place on the Prime Minister a constitutional responsibility, as the only person with power to do so, to have regard to all relevant interests, including the interests of Parliament" (para 30).
"The Prime Minister’s reaction was to describe the September sitting as a “rigmarole”. Nowhere is there a hint that the Prime Minister, in giving advice to Her Majesty, is more than simply the leader of the Government seeking to promote its own policies; he has a constitutional responsibility, as we have explained in para 30 above" (para 60).
"It is impossible for us to conclude, on the evidence which has been put before us, that there was any reason - let alone a good reason - to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament for five weeks, from 9th or 12th September until 14th October." (Para 61).
In other words, at worst Johnson lied to the Queen, and at best he failed in his fundamental constitutional responsibility in advising the Queen. And it is telling that the PM gave no witness statement, very heavily implying he wanted to avoid a perjury rap.
It is incredibly damning, and Johnson's position is utterly indefensible (although defend it his acolytes no doubt will).
It was possible before that Johnson might have advised Liz to ignore Parliament, and just let the two-week clock run down to an election - but, now, there's much more chance that she will call bullshit on Johnson's "advice".
I’ve always assumed it is a much-overdue lobotomy.
Except possibly the LDs and SNP, and I suspect the former would only want to do it once Brexit had been safely delayed.
Isn’t this unlikely, and almost impossible, because of time? Unless David is saying an election will emerge from the next few days?
I think I may put Lady Hale in the same category as my heroes, Atticus Finch and Henry Drummond/Clarence Darrow.
Firstly the Supreme Court decision and probably more importantly @TSE has enjoyed a lawful "first" on PB.
Remarkable ....
I quoted the relevant bit on the previous thread, and think it bears repetition. It is very short, very simple and utterly non partisan.
It does set a limit on the power of the executive which was previously not there (or at best unexpressed), but it seems an entirely reasonable limit, and I would genuinely like to know with what rule those who are condemning this judgment would like to replace it.
...the relevant limit on the power to prorogue is this: that a decision to prorogue (or advise the monarch to prorogue) will be unlawful if the prorogation has the effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive. In judging any justification which might be put forward, the court must of course be sensitive to the responsibilities and experience of the Prime Minister and proceed with appropriate caution.
If the prorogation does have that effect, without reasonable justification, there is no need for the court to consider whether the Prime Minister's motive or purpose was unlawful....
But as to political impact, I think you are spot on.
Though with Corbyn, you never know! He's not the brightest pea in the pod and I would not be surprised if he now calls a GE.
I expect Boris would win the vote but unconvincingly.
I'd believe it was the plan to make it a people vs establishment election and this will shore up some votes, but losing so decisively is not a good look
I think Boris will take an inevitable hit in the polls for "losing", but the man in the street will also not fail to notice how Parliament, the Speaker, and now the Courts are blatantly stacked against what they voted for...
Sensible MPs should be trying to work together to draw the UK back from the increasingly damaging polarisation of opinion, and to restore the old conventions of acting honourably and fairly which have served us well for many decades. In practical terms that should mean the government eating humble pie on this, firing Cummings, and restoring the whip to the 21 refuseniks. The No Dealers should stop no-dealing. The opposition parties should be careful not to inflame things by calling for scalps (except Boris's, natch).
On Brexit, there is only one way forward, which is first of all for everyone agree that an extension is indispensable given the division and chaos, and secondly for a GE or referendum to decide what to do next.
Unfortunately I don't think any of this is going to happen, except that that there will be a highly controversial and polarising further extension, and probably a very divisive GE.
Hot off the press today.
Shrewd move.
LOL.
I don't see what use she is if she won't stand up for the law herself when given bad advice by her ministers.