politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A closer look at one of tonight’s local council by elections

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

Possibly and of course in opposition the Tory rating would surge but given Swinson would veto a Corbyn premiership and Corbyn would likely veto a Clarke and Harman premiership there is no alternative PM either it seems

Oh yes, putting Corbyn into bat should mean an election in short order. The pro-EU parties can trust him to comply with the Benn legislation; besides anything else, if he didn't the Labour Party would self-combust. The never-Corbyn fraction of that grouping (Lib Dems, TIGs, rebel ex-Tories and Labourites) can therefore vote with Johnson and against Corbyn as soon as HM has invited Corbyn to form a Government.

This could precipitate a GE in November or early December, depending on whether Johnson gets the chance to table a VONC before or after Prorogation, and allowing for the 14-day hiatus under the FTPA.

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

He should write the letter but make it clear he is doing it under duress from a Parliament that that has been totally unreasonable and has set itself against the people of this country (that is what he should put that in the letter itself)

I suspect Leave voters will be far more sympathetic than the Remainers think (all the way along Remainers have never understood Leavers and expecting a backlash against Boris if they stop him honouring his 31st October commitment is another example)

The main reason I expect a backlash against Boris is I don't think his rigid commitment to the date and trashing of the WA as a backup option makes sense unless that backlash is what he also expects, given the high probability parliament would attempt to force an extension on him. And while Farage's utterances may need to be taken with a pinch of salt, and granted he may not be as effective as he thinks, the way he has responded to all this makes it clear he at least hopes to wreck Boris's chances if we still haven't left by then.

The backlash will be against the diehard Remainers in the Commons and Corbyn who has enabled them, the only question is whether Boris or Farage leads it, if Boris capitulates and extends again then the Tories could well be seen as a Remainer Party now too, most of their voters flood to the BP joined by the remaining Labour Leavers and under FPTP Farage wins a landslide at the GE.

That is a worst case scenario for Boris though and he will hope as Black Rock states Leave voters will understand he only extended under duress because of a Bill passed by Parliament he opposes but clearly Boris will be taking a risk doing so and might decide to stand his ground and refuse to ask for an extension anyway

solarflare said:

How about Boris refuses to go ask for an extension, resigns as PM and defects to the Brexit Party to fight in the subsequent election, for absolute lolz.

I would not rule out a Brexit Party and Tory Party merger with Boris going into Opposition with Farage his Deputy

Anabobazina said:

HYUFD said:

blueblue said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

And hand the country to Corbyn? No thanks!

There is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn either, the LDs likely veto him and Boris cannot be removed without an alternative so he likely has to stay until a GE is finally granted

A Gnu might just command the confidence of the house? Ken-Harriet dream ticket or some such?

Unlikely as most Tory MPs and Corbynista Labour MPs would vote that down too

If a PM won’t follow the law and can decide which laws he likes and which he’ll ignore how exactly does a democracy survive .

It’s astonishing to see some Leavers supporting this course of action.

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

Possibly and of course in opposition the Tory rating would surge but given Swinson would veto a Corbyn premiership and Corbyn would likely veto a Clarke and Harman premiership there is no alternative PM either it seems

Oh yes, putting Corbyn into bat should mean an election in short order. The pro-EU parties can trust him to comply with the Benn legislation; besides anything else, if he didn't the Labour Party would self-combust. The never-Corbyn fraction of that grouping (Lib Dems, TIGs, rebel ex-Tories and Labourites) can therefore vote with Johnson and against Corbyn as soon as HM has invited Corbyn to form a Government.

This could precipitate a GE in November or early December, depending on whether Johnson gets the chance to table a VONC before or after Prorogation, and allowing for the 14-day hiatus under the FTPA.

Can't see Grieve or Clarke lasting that long either. It really seems like the sensible thing for Boris to do is to make as much noise as possible about not sgning the letter and how dastardly parliament is, while hanging on to put in populist bills that Corbyn can't support (tax cuts for the low income, tougher prison sentences, new public holidays for St George's Day, Trafalgar Day, immigration restrictions etc). Then pass the baton to Remainers just before the economy turns and start campaigning for three months. He could also commit to having a manifesto pledge to leave the EU as soon as possible, come what may. That might make the EU turn down an extension.

Of course he would repeal it. What were they expecting?

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1169590697273565191?s=21

Gallowgate said:

Of course he would repeal it. What were they expecting?

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1169590697273565191?s=21

Is that basically a massive "don't vote for the election on Monday" klaxon

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

Possibly and of course in opposition the Tory rating would surge but given Swinson would veto a Corbyn premiership and Corbyn would likely veto a Clarke and Harman premiership there is no alternative PM either it seems

Oh yes, putting Corbyn into bat should mean an election in short order. The pro-EU parties can trust him to comply with the Benn legislation; besides anything else, if he didn't the Labour Party would self-combust. The never-Corbyn fraction of that grouping (Lib Dems, TIGs, rebel ex-Tories and Labourites) can therefore vote with Johnson and against Corbyn as soon as HM has invited Corbyn to form a Government.

This could precipitate a GE in November or early December, depending on whether Johnson gets the chance to table a VONC before or after Prorogation, and allowing for the 14-day hiatus under the FTPA.

We had all this in 2007 when there was a lot of speculation about Brown having an autumn election. As then this idea of a general election in November or December is for the birds IMO.

People aren't going to go trudging to vote when its dark at 4pm and raining or snowing.

Whoever is PM on 1st November will still still be PM on 1st April and there will be no intervening election.

The election either happens in October or it doesn't happen until next Spring and if you put Corbyn in next month expect him still to be there in six months time.

HYUFD said:

solarflare said:

How about Boris refuses to go ask for an extension, resigns as PM and defects to the Brexit Party to fight in the subsequent election, for absolute lolz.

I would not rule out a Brexit Party and Tory Party merger with Boris going into Opposition with Farage his Deputy

Bring it on with what you and yours have done to the Tory party it’s what you deserve their is not a lot of difference, apart from Eton, between one venture capitalist and another, you can all drink in sink pubs run by people taking the pies out of you whilst you celebrate your new freedoms. Can’t wait let them have it they deserve everything they get. Let’s make Tice and his mates a few million more whilst they off shore jobs.

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Likewise - I do expect Boris to hit 40% but for it to drop as the campaign real begins

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1169701024136933376

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Likewise - I do expect Boris to hit 40% but for it to drop as the campaign real begins

Not sure who it will drop to or why.

The bigger danger is that opposition support coalesces around one opponent. That's what did for May last time, all the opposition votes coalesced into Labour. Unless there's a dramatic LD collapse this doesn't seem as likely this time.

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Hopefully we'll have 2-3 polls on Saturday evening and that will be out first sense of what's happening with public opinion.

I think we'll see BXP and Lib-Dem/Green down with Con and Lab up. Con probably goes up more than Lab though.

GIN1138 said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

He should write the letter but make it clear he is doing it under duress from a Parliament that that has been totally unreasonable and has set itself against the people of this country (that is what he should put that in the letter itself)

I suspect Leave voters will be far more sympathetic than the Remainers think (all the way along Remainers have never understood Leavers and expecting a backlash against Boris if they stop him honouring his 31st October commitment is another example - the backlash will be against the Remainer Parliament - if they ever actually have the guts to face the electorate)

Johnson can't sign the letter, in contravention of his explicitly stated policy and pledge, and expect to get away with it. Farage will accuse him of being a bottler who can't be trusted with Brexit or anything else, and be widely believed by the kind of committed and frustrated Leave voters that the Tories are attempting to hoover up.

Politicians have a dire reputation for not keeping their promises. Boris Johnson can't keep his populist show on the road if he allows himself to be portrayed as 'just like all the rest of them.'

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Likewise - I do expect Boris to hit 40% but for it to drop as the campaign real begins

I think (as no great fan) the analysis is realistic, but he’s suffering from the same illusion as TM when she set out to crush the saboteurs in 2017 - that he’s invincible. I’m not sure the “good on him” base is as large as The Sun assumes, nor that it’s entirely immune to breaking the law or having his brother quit. I suspect there’s quite a soft side to his vote, especially among some women.

So he needs to avoid unforced errors, and remember he’s probably already 10 seats down in Scotland, with BXP potentially stronger than UKIP2017 in England. And a far more focused opposition in the centre too, with the potential (not definite) for greater tactical voting and other cooperation. There’s also a very unclear route from Northern English Lab seats turning (dark) blue.

All in all, the path to a BJ overall majority looks bloody rocky still, however much he fires up his base.

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

GIN1138 said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Black_Rook said:

Re: the current bonkers dispute over the PM defying the law...

1. It wouldn't work. The EU27 wouldn't countenance being seen to expel the UK based on an illegal act by the Prime Minister, and his behaviour would be challenged and defeated in the courts in both London and Strasbourg
2. In any subsequent GE, the flow of diehard Leave voters into the arms of the Tories might be enough, and in the right places, to compensate for the stampede of moderates away from them under such circumstances. But I doubt it
3. The Parliamentary Conservative Party does not consist primarily of total nutters. If the Prime Minister defies the law of the land, it will descend into chaos and probably disintegrate in any event

If Corbyn won't give Boris Johnson his October 15th election, and the Prime Minister wants to avoid compliance with the Benn legislation, his only realistic option is to resign and go into Opposition.

He should write the letter but make it clear he is doing it under duress from a Parliament that that has been totally unreasonable and has set itself against the people of this country (that is what he should put that in the letter itself)

I suspect Leave voters will be far more sympathetic than the Remainers think (all the way along Remainers have never understood Leavers and expecting a backlash against Boris if they stop him honouring his 31st October commitment is another example)

The letter is already written for him; it's in the bill.

Does the bill say the government can't add their own paragaphs?

Not explicitly but I doubt the EU would pay any attention to any additional paragraphs because they can read the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill (soon to be Act) as well as any court in the UK can.

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1169681044573962240?s=21

Strangely furtive performance from Johnson, as though he expects hostage taker Cummings to discover him, switch the microphone off and do something nasty to him.

One lie after another, of course, from Johnson. Judging from the Twitter comments it seems he does get uncritical support - from diehards, let's say.

My take from this is that Johnson will blame Corbyn's "surrender bill" for the failure of a deal that he is only pretending to negotiate with the EU. "The EU were on the point of giving me everything I wanted, only for Corbyn to sabotage it with his craven surrender to EU interests.

It is the truth so why not say it?

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

I read that they didn’t want Labour to remove the option of a filibuster in future. 🤷‍♂️

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

You can't play the people versus Parliament card when your own unelected peers have just filibustered out a law preventing No Deal.

Leading in polls but currently unable to get an election - Hyufd was right Boris is like Salvini.

And I do expect Boris to rise higher in the polls - some more moderates may have quit but most who have stuck it out this long aren’t going anywhere and there’s still some bxp vote to squeeze.

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

Because:
a) he knew the filibuster would fail and
b) he wanted to meet Corbyn's condition to force Corbyn to agree to a pre-31 Oct election. Corbyn of course has now spotted the trap (thanks Tony!) and will not play ball on Monday.

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1169681044573962240?s=21

Strangely furtive performance from Johnson, as though he expects hostage taker Cummings to discover him, switch the microphone off and do something nasty to him.

One lie after another, of course, from Johnson. Judging from the Twitter comments it seems he does get uncritical support - from diehards, let's say.

My take from this is that Johnson will blame Corbyn's "surrender bill" for the failure of a deal that he is only pretending to negotiate with the EU. "The EU were on the point of giving me everything I wanted, only for Corbyn to sabotage it with his craven surrender to EU interests.

It is the truth so why not say it?

I don't say it because it's a lie. Johnson is not negotiating anything with the EU, Corbyn or no.

But I agree people will believe the lie, because they want to believe

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Johnson will win Johnson will then have to live with his victory it does mean he isn’t a duplicitous lying twat that should never have been allowed near the leavers of power. You and HY can bask in the sunlit uplands. I hope you don’t ruin to many people’s lives along the way as you enjoy your new found freedoms

I think it will be like the 80s all over again. Johnson will be in power for the next decade as the opposition run around like headless chickens unable to understand how someone like him is winning elections as everyone they know hates him.

and yes the country will be better off and more free at the end of it.

Only in your own mind there is not a single benefit that the man in the street will ever experience. Individuals under the current voting system have next to no influence with their vote and it will be twenty years if ever the U.K.,will be in a better position than it is now

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Johnson will win Johnson will then have to live with his victory it does mean he isn’t a duplicitous lying twat that should never have been allowed near the leavers of power. You and HY can bask in the sunlit uplands. I hope you don’t ruin to many people’s lives along the way as you enjoy your new found freedoms

I think it will be like the 80s all over again. Johnson will be in power for the next decade as the opposition run around like headless chickens unable to understand how someone like him is winning elections as everyone they know hates him.

and yes the country will be better off and more free at the end of it.

Tories have already been in power for nine years. They won't get another ten.

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1169681044573962240?s=21

Strangely furtive performance from Johnson, as though he expects hostage taker Cummings to discover him, switch the microphone off and do something nasty to him.

One lie after another, of course, from Johnson. Judging from the Twitter comments it seems he does get uncritical support - from diehards, let's say.

My take from this is that Johnson will blame Corbyn's "surrender bill" for the failure of a deal that he is only pretending to negotiate with the EU. "The EU were on the point of giving me everything I wanted, only for Corbyn to sabotage it with his craven surrender to EU interests.

It is the truth so why not say it?

There was no deal

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1169681044573962240?s=21

Strangely furtive performance from Johnson, as though he expects hostage taker Cummings to discover him, switch the microphone off and do something nasty to him.

One lie after another, of course, from Johnson. Judging from the Twitter comments it seems he does get uncritical support - from diehards, let's say.

My take from this is that Johnson will blame Corbyn's "surrender bill" for the failure of a deal that he is only pretending to negotiate with the EU. "The EU were on the point of giving me everything I wanted, only for Corbyn to sabotage it with his craven surrender to EU interests.

It is the truth so why not say it?

There was no deal

Because Parliament led by Corbyn surrendered to the EU.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1169701024136933376

Why can't the EU just turn a blind eye for a few months, as we all expect the UK to swallow its pride and accept the WA soon enough?

Gabs2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Johnson will win Johnson will then have to live with his victory it does mean he isn’t a duplicitous lying twat that should never have been allowed near the leavers of power. You and HY can bask in the sunlit uplands. I hope you don’t ruin to many people’s lives along the way as you enjoy your new found freedoms

I think it will be like the 80s all over again. Johnson will be in power for the next decade as the opposition run around like headless chickens unable to understand how someone like him is winning elections as everyone they know hates him.

and yes the country will be better off and more free at the end of it.

Tories have already been in power for nine years. They won't get another ten.

People could have said close to that in 1987.

Ishmael_Z said:

Anabobazina said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Gallowgate said:

RobD said:

Gallowgate said:

RobD said:

Gallowgate said:

Genuine question: where is the line?

If 17m voted to make it legal to kill gay people, would that be okay?

Good lord. How the two are even remotely equivalent is beyond me.

I didn’t say they were equivalent. I asked where the line was.

The current argument is about political maneuverings to deliver Brexit, against the wishes of a Commons that would rather remain. It's not a moral issue, or about whether people should be killed or not.

However a PM ignoring the law because he has ‘17m people behind him’ is.

Remainers have bent the constitution to get their way, why not leavers?

Have remainers broken the law? Bent not broken implies they have not in your eyes, even if they have behaved poorly. So breaking the law in response would seem an escalation.

I was more thinking about scenarios to block the passage of the bill. Not that I want such a think to happen, it' my view that if it's passed by the commons, the queen must sign.

@HYUFD specifically said that Boris would ignore the law even if given royal assent and justified that because ‘17m’.

I said Boris would refuse to go to Brussels to ask for an extension as reported today, he cannot be forced to do so unless another PM replaces him after a VONC (though a VONC could also lead to a general election at last)

He will have to ask for an extension under the law of the land. Do you understand Benn? It would be a criminal act not to do so. Unless he resigns.

@AlastairMeeks @Cyclefree are you able to educate us on this? What are the possible consequences legally?

It doesn't create a crime. Failure to comply with it would be judicially reviewable by the courts, and non compliance with their orders would be contempt of court.

In the same way as any other law? If I rob your house in broad daylight surrounded by eight eyewitnesses, I still have to be found guilty of robbery by a court of law before I am deemed to be a criminal.

There's an extra step involved. Criminal trial - go straight to prison. Non criminal trial - get told to do x, fail to do x, appear in court on charge of having failed to do x, then go to prison.

Thanks Ishmael.

I think Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand. (Whether Labour puts up a candidate probably won't make a difference).

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

Because:
a) he knew the filibuster would fail and
b) he wanted to meet Corbyn's condition to force Corbyn to agree to a pre-31 Oct election. Corbyn of course has now spotted the trap (thanks Tony!) and will not play ball on Monday.

"The trap" being that Corbyn is unpopular and would lose the election? That trap?

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Likewise - I do expect Boris to hit 40% but for it to drop as the campaign real begins

Not sure who it will drop to or why.

The bigger danger is that opposition support coalesces around one opponent. That's what did for May last time, all the opposition votes coalesced into Labour. Unless there's a dramatic LD collapse this doesn't seem as likely this time.

This is probably going to be a very complex election, in which it will matter more than ever where the votes of each party stack up. There will probably be a lot of strange results in individual constituencies, and almost anything could happen (although I think, on balance, a Conservative majority is more likely than a Labour one.)

It's probably fair to say that, in the final analysis, Boris Johnson's chance of pulling this off depends on whether he can steal more Labour seats in the Midlands, the North and Wales than he loses in London, the South and Scotland to the SNP and the Lib Dems. And that, in turn, may be down to the Brexit Party: how much of the BXP vote can the Tories lure away and, to the extent that BXP voters are ex-Labour but never-Tory voters, do they still peel off in large enough numbers in Labour seats to allow the Conservative candidate to come through the middle to win?

I've no idea. IIRC, the last opinion I read from the Venerable Curtice suggested that Johnson could win an election *IF* the Remain leaning vote is sufficiently split. But if there's widespread tactical voting, coupled with large numbers of centrist Tory voters sitting on their hands or going Lib Dem because of a more general sense of unease about the PM, then I think he'll lose.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

Because:
a) he knew the filibuster would fail and
b) he wanted to meet Corbyn's condition to force Corbyn to agree to a pre-31 Oct election. Corbyn of course has now spotted the trap (thanks Tony!) and will not play ball on Monday.

"The trap" being that Corbyn is unpopular and would lose the election? That trap?

I have zero time for Corbyn , but would walk over hot coals and vote for him if it meant removing Johnson and the rest of the lunatics .

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the Gothic Pepperami has gone all Begbie.

If there's one thing a red blooded Jock can't resist it's a challenge thrown down by a bloke who can't get a suit that fits him.

Soz, wrong link!

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1169677779023147009?s=20

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1169701024136933376

Interesting. Not at the border?

Philip_Thompson said:

Gabs2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Overwhelming consensus here seems to be that Boris is crashing and burning and doing an awful job . . . by an overall consensus of people who thought Boris was awful before he got the job.

I and others seem to think Boris is getting on with the job and am pleased with what we see so far. Which is what he was elected to do.

Has anyone actually changed their minds?

From a baseline of ~35% in most polls recently it seems, I expect Boris's Tories will hit 40% before 30%.

Johnson will win Johnson will then have to live with his victory it does mean he isn’t a duplicitous lying twat that should never have been allowed near the leavers of power. You and HY can bask in the sunlit uplands. I hope you don’t ruin to many people’s lives along the way as you enjoy your new found freedoms

I think it will be like the 80s all over again. Johnson will be in power for the next decade as the opposition run around like headless chickens unable to understand how someone like him is winning elections as everyone they know hates him.

and yes the country will be better off and more free at the end of it.

Tories have already been in power for nine years. They won't get another ten.

People could have said close to that in 1987.

The Tories have a 100 fewer MPs now than they did in 1987.

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1169681044573962240?s=21

Strangely furtive performance from Johnson, as though he expects hostage taker Cummings to discover him, switch the microphone off and do something nasty to him.

One lie after another, of course, from Johnson. Judging from the Twitter comments it seems he does get uncritical support - from diehards, let's say.

My take from this is that Johnson will blame Corbyn's "surrender bill" for the failure of a deal that he is only pretending to negotiate with the EU. "The EU were on the point of giving me everything I wanted, only for Corbyn to sabotage it with his craven surrender to EU interests.

It is the truth so why not say it?

There was no deal

Because Parliament led by Corbyn surrendered to the EU.

There was no deal

Because Parliament led by Corbyn surrendered to the EU.

There was no deal because Al didn’t propose any solutions

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

She'll take soundings then.

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

The Queen would have to send for the leader of the opposition, and ask to see whether he can win a confidence vote in the Commons.

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

Election

EDIT: Assuming it's true. If BoZo just said it, she would send for somebody else like Corbyn

Scott_P said:

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

Election

I think the key question is who is PM? I think Boris would stay in that scenario.

God the FTPA sucks.

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

General election, surely. There really is no-one else with the current HoC makeup.

Not entirely sure of the mechanics post FTPA though.

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

That's what I was asking last night. Someone said it would be Corbyn but I'm not so sure...

She would probably dissolve the house, if possible and there would be an election but we would be in uncharted waters

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

I have a question:

What happens if the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and says

"Ma'am, I have lost the Confidence of the Houses of Parliament and can no longer serve as your Prime Minister"

She says "Do you believe there is another member who could command its Confidence?"

And he says "I do not, Ma'am".

She'll take soundings then.

From whom? JRM?

rcs1000 said:

By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

Why do you think it is the right and moral thing?

GIN1138 said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

Rather than not follow the law why didn’t boris let the attempted filibuster play out?

I still think we're going to have an election in October from the one line bill route.

Other than Boris the only other party leader who's interests its in to have an election in October is Nicola...

I appreciate this will be a difficult concept for Tories to understand the SNP seem to be putting country before party.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1169377798835728384?s=20

And the legislation currently going through Parliament right now makes No Deal on 31st October illegal.

That's what the Opposition wanted.

But if the argument is that Boris could be returned with a majroty and then push on with NO DEAL.. Well that's another matter.

We could go past 31st October still in the EU, have an election after 31st October which leads to a Con majority and then we leave with no deal on 31st December or January.

That's a risk Remaines will have to take sooner or later unless we're never going to have a general election again?

Of course, that's a possibility. But Boris failing to deliver Brexit on 31 October will seriously dent his mojo.

At the current rate, by the time of a November or spring GE Boris will be a bigger liability to the Tories than TMay was in the last election.