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An amnesty rather than a pardon would be fitting. A pardon implies that they were wrongly treated, an amnesty is just a clean slate.

I have been moderated a number of times, though not yet banned. I think the moderators do a great job on the whole.

Is OGH wanting to raise some loot for his easter egg fund? Today may be a good day to do so!

MonikerDiCanio said:

Perhaps it would be fitting for the PB hierarchy to issue a formal pardon to all expelled miscreant posters on this auspicious day.

surbiton said:

MarqueeMark said:

Any chance of tim and Plato appearing today for a piece of cake?

Oh ! That would be nice.

You have to be joking

Carnyx said:

SouthamObserver said:

@Carnyx - "2. Accepted Devomax, and then exerted leadership on the rest of the UK to to bring it about. Whether this was practical with the Tory backbenchers, for a start, is another matter; but he could have said "look here, this means we instantly win the referendum, so just shut up, OK?"."

I have no idea on this, but would the SNP have been content to wait for a UK-wide Devomax settlement to have been agreed before holding a referendum? It's not something that could have been carved out of thin air, it would have taken time to sort out.

I know there is a doctrine (under the conveniently unwritten constitution) that the decisions of one administration at Westminster don't bind the next, but if an all-party agreement could be reached then the implications of later breaching it would have been so serious that a de facto binding agreement could have been achieved, presumably.

The question of whether devomax (ie all except defence and external relations) could be accepted by EWNI is perhaps another matter, but if it meant saving the union for the foreseeable future with the minimum of grief ...?

In their arrogance they chose to gamble on all or nothing and it looks like they will get just what they deserve , NOTHING.

Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.

Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:

Cons: 38.9%
LAB: 36.6%
LDs: 9,58%
UKIP: 11.98%

Stuart_Dickson said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

FPT:

4:45AM edited 4:50AM
Details of the SIndy poll:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

And John Curtice' take on it:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....

As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....

This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well.
Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.

The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%

Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
I've been panicking for a year - I'd agree that the later the No side panic the better for your lot, as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum.

surbiton said:

AveryLP said:

Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

rom the western banks of the Dnieper.

I am not sure Putin wants to occupy the Ukraine or even to bring the whole country into Russia's sphere of influence. His goal is to keep the Ukraine's destiny within his power and to avoid further NATO encroachment. Asset stripping the South and East or splitting the country on Russian terms is the most likely outcome.

Putin will want to restrict the West to a demilitarised and deindustrialised Eastern Ukraine, with the costs of supporting its development on the US and the EU's books.

For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.

foxinsoxuk said:

Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.

I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.

OldKingCole said:

...

Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.

The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.

If it was none of business that Russia annexed the place because the majority there want that, it's none of our business what happen to anyone else that is there. Either we have a right to comment and act in the affairs in Crimea, if we deem it right to do so, or we don't. I would suggest a slim majority of opinion in the country is that we don't under any circumstances (though that is no my view), so we, the west, and Crimea will have to accept the consequences of that, which hopefully will not be as bad as it could be.

AveryLP said:

Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

The Russian army will also remain massed on the Ukraine border with the implicit threat that any military intervention by NATO or its allies will result in a full invasion.

The net effect of these actions will be to make it difficult, expensive and unrewarding for the EU and US to incorporate Eastern Ukraine into their 'western' sphere of influence.

The situation in the Ukraine will either deteriorate into widespread civil unrest - a "civil war" - and 'justify' invasion by Russia, or, it will stagnate as a failed and ungovernable state.

You may be right, and obviously know the scene better than I do. But my impression, supported by a discussion that I had with a senior Duma member when I was over there (who I was seeing in an animal welfare context, but I asked him his view of Crimea etc.) is that Putin and probably most Russians see Crimea as a non-negotiable issue but are less interested in the Eastern Ukraine, partly for the semi-respectable and pragmatic reason that the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine are less solidly keen to become part of Russia than Crimeans mostly seem to be.

If the Kiev government really winds them up - reviving the language issue, for instance - that could change, but the pro-Russian incidents in Eastern Ukraine have been too sporadic and feeble to be more than local hotheads with a bit of low-key encouragement. And I'm quite sure that Putin doesn't want the Western Ukraine, wrestling with the Kaidan crowds on a daily basis. I think Russia will just demand the market price for gas and wait for either the West to write the cheques or Ukraine to ask for help.

What's more, I think the West has tacitily agreed all this. The retaliation against the incorporation of Crimea has been laughably trivial - a few people can't visit the West so easily, shrug. There have been a number of comments from Germany and others that an incursion into Eastern Ukraine would be another matter.

Charles said:

My understanding - but this is a vague recollection - was that it is really a public health matter. If you are in a hot country without refrigeration then you need to avoid wormy meats such as pork or foods like shellfish that are likely to make you ill.

In addition, complete exsanguination ensures that no blood is left in the carcase, which could also lead to spoilage. Bleeding the animal while the heart is still beating ensures that this happens. As I understand it, all if not most halal slaughter in the UK is electrically pre-stunned, as the imams will accept a form of stunning that does not kill the animal (whereas captive bolt stunning can).

To add my congratulations to Mike and his team on ten successful years and my thanks to all the PBers who have contributed to my fund of knowledge in so many fields and occasionally to my bank balance. Two in particular stick in my mind I had my best race meeting ever thanks to StJohn who gave me the first three races at Goodwood a few years ago (paid for all the day's expenses, refreshment in heroic quantities and still cash to take home) and Mr. Charles for his information on the bishops' appointments, which earned me not only hard cash (which was donated to the Church) but something of a reputation amongst my ecclesiastic friends.

One of the things that make this site unique and so often entertaining is how there can be three or four conversations on wildly different topics going on in the same thread. I have seen earnest debates on the merits of a voting system nestled in with discussions of elements of Byzantine history mixed up with tips on a race meeting and some semi-obligatory Frog bashing. Its like a virtual public bar but where you can hear every conversation that is going on.

Again well done Mike and thanks to all you PBers who together make this the one the most informative and certainly the most civilised, mostly, political sites around.

Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday - PB 10th Anniversary special!

OpEd: We congratulate Mike Smithson and his team for 10 years of politicalbetting.com - long may it continue to be Britain's most-read political blog!
We cautiously welcome Pension and Savings changes in last week's Budget!
Vladimir Putin denies wanting to turn Crimea into the world's biggest Bingo hall!
Sean T laughs off claims that Primrose Hill is the "ponciest" part of London!
Mystic Smeg: "I predict either a Yes or a No victory in the Scots referendum!"
All the latest movie reviews with our Mark Commode!
And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!

On topic. Congrats and thanks to Mike OGH.

Off topic, has the BBC taken their love for the Guardian to new depths with 2/3 of the hacks on the Sunday politics show coming from the Guardian?

Stuart_Dickson said:

Millsy said:

In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

Con 30.0% (+2.1)
Lab 28.7% (NC)
Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
LD 7.4% (NC)
Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

Mark Senior, look away now.

Euro VI - Scotland

Lab 39%
SNP 37%
Con 19%
Grn 2%
UKIP 2%
LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)

Yep I noticed that , I also noticed that the Scottish sub sample was somewhat at variance with the reality of what happened in 2010 with 30% saying they had voted SNP and just 5% saying they had voted Lib Dem . Always a danger with sub samples as I have been telling you on here almost since the site was set up .

Happy 10th Birthday PB.com. Many congratulations to Mike and the team and thank you for running such an enjoyable and informative website. I cannot remember when I first began to view the site or posted, I would hazard a guess it was quite early on as I remember meeting a pb.com poster at the Conservative Party conference around 2005 and I attended one of the early PB.com meet-ups in London before Dirty Dicks became the meeting place. I don't post much, but I regularly read and consistently find myself becoming better informed on a whole host of issues (particularly useful as I have rarely gambled on politics). I also enjoy the off-topic discussions around good books to read or films to watch.

I wish the website all the best for the next 10 years and I hope that yours and my football team Mike can give you a late birthday present by confirming promotion back to the top league of English football. Have a great day!

The Tartars came to Crimea from central Asia, and displaced the Byzantine Greeks. As Russia sees itself as the protector of the Eastern Orthodox tradition it could be said that they were just restoring the status quo ante.

The point is not to get involved in whose blood is linked to which land (thereby exists only wars) but to ensure that the rights of minorities are respected. We should engage with the Crimeans to help draft some legal protections for Crimean Tartars and Ukranians in return for recognising the incorporation into Russia. Ukraine itself would benefit from similar enshrinement of minority rights and the development of proper rule of law. There have been some unacceptable acts in Kyiv recently, such as this: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/19/ukranian-tv-boss-assaulted-and-forced-to-resign-by-far-right-svoboda-mps/

It should be clear to Ukraine that these sorts of actions are not compatible with EU support.

surbiton said:

AveryLP said:

Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

Both outcomes would suit Putin. An invasion which restored order would not result in a military response from the Western powers and would give him maximum power in any subsequent negotiations.

For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.

foxinsoxuk said:

Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.

I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.

OldKingCole said:

...

Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.

The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.

Congratulations - Happy birthday to PoliticalBetting.com.

It means I don't have to look at Twitter

Well done to the Birthday boy(s).

The constant education available combined with the insight, laughter and joy of discussion give PB a unique mix.

Thank you, Mike, Robert and all other contributors, Mods and posters.

MikeK said:

Ishmael_X said:

MikeK said:

Ishmael_X said:

MikeK said:

Another betrayal by our so called betters:

Bas ‏@Hillchaser 46m
Islamic law is adopted by British legal chiefs | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/E4bhjwG

It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.

Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.

I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there.
This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country.
If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.

You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?

This is not about wills, it's about the presence of Sharia Law enacted as part of British law.

I think you have mis-understood. The Law Society wants to make sure Wills that follow Sharia Law are consistent with British law - not the other way round....British Law remains supreme.

A big thank you to all the nice things that have been said on the thread and on Twitter. Much appreciated.

Thanks as well to those who have made donations to the site. That is really welcome especially as our display advertising revenue continues to fall.

Fans of BBC4's "The Bridge" will understand this - thanks to our Swedish/Scots poster who has helped me understand better the Swedish detective, Saga.

RodCrosby said:

Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

Congratulations Mike and all the guest editors and everyone who contributes to PB, now an invaluable political resource and archive for years to come

@NickPalmer

Nick

A problem the West has is that it starts from the assumption that Russia wants to be 'western'. or that it will adopt 'western' values if exposed to our 'more developed' culture. This assumption is held at all levels from transnational down to personal, and I have been as mistaken as any in sharing it.

This judgement is not simple. Russia is not Saudi Arabia, where the cultural and political divide with the West is polarised and extreme. There are temples to Europe all over Russia and a large cosmopolitan minority which is happy to wear our clothes and values.

But these European surfaces are Potemkin villages. Go behind the facade and there is no substance. Arbitrary, centralised, corrupt and ruthless exercise of power is all. But in an indolent and spasmodic way which is uniquely Russian and allows endless exceptions when there is no threat to the core.

The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.

Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.

You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).

Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.

MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.

The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes.

But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.

Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.

The Sunday Record Editorial :

Labour leader Johann Lamont went on attack against the SNP at her party's conference but is failing to see the bigger picture on independence

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/news/sunday-mail-opinion-labour-leader-3274010

The Scotsman barely a fan either:

Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

I didn't realise that IDS was one of the PB Hodges on here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#

One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!

edmundintokyo said:

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

Maybe we should use something with a consistent methodology to do these swingback calculations. I'm thinking by-elections.

Hi Edmund, you mean like this?

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/10/sunils-by-election-analysis-which-partys-has-done-best-and-which-worst-in-current-parliament/

CarlottaVance said:

The Scotsman barely a fan either:

Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

HYUFD said:

Peter Indeed, but UKIP was not a factor then. The Tories will probably win back enough to be largest party, but a majority is unlikely

Those 6/4 odds from Sportingbet relate to the Tories winning the most seats, NOT to them gaining an overall majority.

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Scotsman barely a fan either:

Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

They are totally deluded , talking to themselves and not many at that. 95 in the hall today , can you believe it.
You wonder why they still hire large halls and make themselves look stupid. Down to getting similar numbers to the Tories , how embarrassing. Worst was all the guff about how they would reverse all the bad SNP policies when they won in 2016.
This is the real picture on labour
http://www.commentisntfree.com/ears-wide-shut/

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Scotsman barely a fan either:

Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....

Yep, that's the bent conrod that's looks likely to shake the One Nation Labour engine apart (and the UK if you believe SLAB are the main torchbearers for the Union).

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

Of course. I forgot that Peter Kellner knows absolutely nothing about polling and didn't reflect the improvements in methodology pioneered by, among others, YouGov, over the last 10 years in his thinking.

Do the Scots really want to keep the pound?

YouGov on the new £ coin shows them least enthusiastic: (adopting the methodology of an interested party which shall remain nameless, and adding the "neutrals" to "dislike"):

In Favour of new pound (net):
London: +31
RoS: +31
Mid/W: +35
North: +35
Scot: +12

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/23/britain-likes-look-new-1-coin/