As a matter of interest is there any party staffers just spouting the party line, as Stuart claims?
My impression is that those on here who have party positions are all more intelligent and nuanced than that, and all deviate at times from official positions.
I do find the prospect of six more months of Scotnat posting a little depressing, little rays of sunshine that they are.
The only group that never criticise their own party are the Scot Nats/SNP.
UKIP and the Lib Dems are usually pretty forgiving of their own parties, Labour, and in particular Con, less so....
More lies from you , sweeping inaccurate horse manure as ever , and before you ask go and find your own links
Usual bluster - remind us, when did you last criticise Salmond or the SNP.......?
My understanding - but this is a vague recollection - was that it is really a public health matter. If you are in a hot country without refrigeration then you need to avoid wormy meats such as pork or foods like shellfish that are likely to make you ill.
I thought you were not meant to re-heat white-meats: They retain bacteria that result in dioxins [?] being spread within said cooled produce. I did go to school in a Sarf' Luhnduhn Compo though (innit)!
@Carnyx - "2. Accepted Devomax, and then exerted leadership on the rest of the UK to to bring it about. Whether this was practical with the Tory backbenchers, for a start, is another matter; but he could have said "look here, this means we instantly win the referendum, so just shut up, OK?"."
I have no idea on this, but would the SNP have been content to wait for a UK-wide Devomax settlement to have been agreed before holding a referendum? It's not something that could have been carved out of thin air, it would have taken time to sort out.
I know there is a doctrine (under the conveniently unwritten constitution) that the decisions of one administration at Westminster don't bind the next, but if an all-party agreement could be reached then the implications of later breaching it would have been so serious that a de facto binding agreement could have been achieved, presumably.
The question of whether devomax (ie all except defence and external relations) could be accepted by EWNI is perhaps another matter, but if it meant saving the union for the foreseeable future with the minimum of grief ...?
In their arrogance they chose to gamble on all or nothing and it looks like they will get just what they deserve , NOTHING.
Is there evidence that these techniques are cruel? If there is, then we need to look at whether we allow them. Religions/superstitions/belief systems should not be used as justification for cruelty. I don't know the answers, but think it is valid to ask the question.
I think the problem though is that if I, as a non Jew or Muslim, were to kill an animal following the Kosher or Halal methods then I could be prosecuted for animal cruelty. The laws should apply equally to all or to none.
Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.
Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:
Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.
Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position
I suspect he's modified his position because the data has changed....something that cannot be said of all, who hold the same view irrespective of the data......
He does not show such glee at the numbers any more, however he is professional and at least states the correct position.
Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.
Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well. Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :
Sep 2013 - 20.2% Sep 2013 - 20.0% Sep 2013 - 18.4% Oct 2013 - 17.9% Oct 2013 - 17.5% Oct 2013 - 17.4% Nov 2013 - 17.5% Dec 2013 - 17.1% Dec 2013 - 16.3% Dec 2013 - 16.2% Dec 2013 - 15.8% Jan 2014 - 14.2% Jan 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.7% Feb 2014 - 15.1% Feb 2014 - 13.6% Feb 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 13.6% Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.
Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well. Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :
Sep 2013 - 20.2% Sep 2013 - 20.0% Sep 2013 - 18.4% Oct 2013 - 17.9% Oct 2013 - 17.5% Oct 2013 - 17.4% Nov 2013 - 17.5% Dec 2013 - 17.1% Dec 2013 - 16.3% Dec 2013 - 16.2% Dec 2013 - 15.8% Jan 2014 - 14.2% Jan 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.7% Feb 2014 - 15.1% Feb 2014 - 13.6% Feb 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 13.6% Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy. I've been panicking for a year - I'd agree that the later the No side panic the better for your lot, as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum.
Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.
Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well. Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :
Sep 2013 - 20.2% Sep 2013 - 20.0% Sep 2013 - 18.4% Oct 2013 - 17.9% Oct 2013 - 17.5% Oct 2013 - 17.4% Nov 2013 - 17.5% Dec 2013 - 17.1% Dec 2013 - 16.3% Dec 2013 - 16.2% Dec 2013 - 15.8% Jan 2014 - 14.2% Jan 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.8% Feb 2014 - 14.7% Feb 2014 - 15.1% Feb 2014 - 13.6% Feb 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.0% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 14.3% Mar 2014 - 13.6% Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
Totally agree Stuart , but they seem to be deflating quicker than expected , I too would prefer August but cannot see it taking that long now.
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.
I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.
rom the western banks of the Dnieper.
I am not sure Putin wants to occupy the Ukraine or even to bring the whole country into Russia's sphere of influence. His goal is to keep the Ukraine's destiny within his power and to avoid further NATO encroachment. Asset stripping the South and East or splitting the country on Russian terms is the most likely outcome.
Putin will want to restrict the West to a demilitarised and deindustrialised Eastern Ukraine, with the costs of supporting its development on the US and the EU's books.
For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.
Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.
I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.
Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.
The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
If it was none of business that Russia annexed the place because the majority there want that, it's none of our business what happen to anyone else that is there. Either we have a right to comment and act in the affairs in Crimea, if we deem it right to do so, or we don't. I would suggest a slim majority of opinion in the country is that we don't under any circumstances (though that is no my view), so we, the west, and Crimea will have to accept the consequences of that, which hopefully will not be as bad as it could be.
Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.
Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:
Cons: 38.9% LAB: 36.6% LDs: 9,58% UKIP: 11.98%
What would that mean in terms of MPs ? A few Lab gains from LDs ?
Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.
I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.
The Russian army will also remain massed on the Ukraine border with the implicit threat that any military intervention by NATO or its allies will result in a full invasion.
The net effect of these actions will be to make it difficult, expensive and unrewarding for the EU and US to incorporate Eastern Ukraine into their 'western' sphere of influence.
The situation in the Ukraine will either deteriorate into widespread civil unrest - a "civil war" - and 'justify' invasion by Russia, or, it will stagnate as a failed and ungovernable state.
You may be right, and obviously know the scene better than I do. But my impression, supported by a discussion that I had with a senior Duma member when I was over there (who I was seeing in an animal welfare context, but I asked him his view of Crimea etc.) is that Putin and probably most Russians see Crimea as a non-negotiable issue but are less interested in the Eastern Ukraine, partly for the semi-respectable and pragmatic reason that the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine are less solidly keen to become part of Russia than Crimeans mostly seem to be.
If the Kiev government really winds them up - reviving the language issue, for instance - that could change, but the pro-Russian incidents in Eastern Ukraine have been too sporadic and feeble to be more than local hotheads with a bit of low-key encouragement. And I'm quite sure that Putin doesn't want the Western Ukraine, wrestling with the Kaidan crowds on a daily basis. I think Russia will just demand the market price for gas and wait for either the West to write the cheques or Ukraine to ask for help.
What's more, I think the West has tacitily agreed all this. The retaliation against the incorporation of Crimea has been laughably trivial - a few people can't visit the West so easily, shrug. There have been a number of comments from Germany and others that an incursion into Eastern Ukraine would be another matter.
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
My understanding - but this is a vague recollection - was that it is really a public health matter. If you are in a hot country without refrigeration then you need to avoid wormy meats such as pork or foods like shellfish that are likely to make you ill.
In addition, complete exsanguination ensures that no blood is left in the carcase, which could also lead to spoilage. Bleeding the animal while the heart is still beating ensures that this happens. As I understand it, all if not most halal slaughter in the UK is electrically pre-stunned, as the imams will accept a form of stunning that does not kill the animal (whereas captive bolt stunning can).
Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.
I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.
Both outcomes would suit Putin. An invasion which restored order would not result in a military response from the Western powers and would give him maximum power in any subsequent negotiations.
Even a stalemate would work the same way, but on a longer timescale. The threat of unilateral escalation would make it difficult for the West to make a major and meaningful intervention and also keep 'NATO' away from the western banks of the Dnieper.
I am not sure Putin wants to occupy the Ukraine or even to bring the whole country into Russia's sphere of influence. His goal is to keep the Ukraine's destiny within his power and to avoid further NATO encroachment. Asset stripping the South and East or splitting the country on Russian terms is the most likely outcome.
Putin will want to restrict the West to a demilitarised and deindustrialised Eastern Ukraine, with the costs of supporting its development on the US and the EU's books.
For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.
Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.
I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.
Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.
The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
To add my congratulations to Mike and his team on ten successful years and my thanks to all the PBers who have contributed to my fund of knowledge in so many fields and occasionally to my bank balance. Two in particular stick in my mind I had my best race meeting ever thanks to StJohn who gave me the first three races at Goodwood a few years ago (paid for all the day's expenses, refreshment in heroic quantities and still cash to take home) and Mr. Charles for his information on the bishops' appointments, which earned me not only hard cash (which was donated to the Church) but something of a reputation amongst my ecclesiastic friends.
One of the things that make this site unique and so often entertaining is how there can be three or four conversations on wildly different topics going on in the same thread. I have seen earnest debates on the merits of a voting system nestled in with discussions of elements of Byzantine history mixed up with tips on a race meeting and some semi-obligatory Frog bashing. Its like a virtual public bar but where you can hear every conversation that is going on.
Again well done Mike and thanks to all you PBers who together make this the one the most informative and certainly the most civilised, mostly, political sites around.
Amid the birthday celebrations there are municipals in France today which should show which way the wind is blowing ahead of the Euros. A test for Marine LePen
Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday - PB 10th Anniversary special!
OpEd: We congratulate Mike Smithson and his team for 10 years of politicalbetting.com - long may it continue to be Britain's most-read political blog! We cautiously welcome Pension and Savings changes in last week's Budget! Vladimir Putin denies wanting to turn Crimea into the world's biggest Bingo hall! Sean T laughs off claims that Primrose Hill is the "ponciest" part of London! Mystic Smeg: "I predict either a Yes or a No victory in the Scots referendum!" All the latest movie reviews with our Mark Commode! And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
Congratulations Mike and Co on your birthday. Ten years in the digital era has got to be worth 25 analogue years and 50 newspapers years. Off topic, something I only realised today is that there are going to be TWO EU debates between Clegg vs Farage: one on LBC on 26 March, hosted by Nick Ferrari, and one on BBC Two on 2 April, hosted by David Dimbleby.
That's a lot of exposure to the extreme positions. It's bound to affect the terms by which a chunk of voters vote. And in that binary context voting Labour or Conservative is sitting on the fence ie something that people don't like doing. It's certainly a good move by both smaller parties.
It also opens up the possibility that the GE debates won't necessarily be limited to just three debates on the main TV channels like last time. For instance, say Farage challenged Clegg to debate in the run up the general election? Clegg couldn't say no without looking shifty, given that Farage accepted his offer of an EU debate. And there'd be plenty of media outlets willing to broadcast it.
I don't think it will actually have much impact at all, though it is worth the chance from both of them that it will, but you may be right about the GE debates, though it's not certain. Clegg I think would be perfectly happy to include Farage because his presence is more likely to hurt Cameron and possibly even Miliband than him, and while there are what I consider reasonable justifications as to why UKIP would not be included as a major party despite being one for the Euros, as Ofcom have ruled I believe, making that distinction would look weaselly.
I imagine that is one of the reasons that Cameron and Miliband didn't deign to be involved in the EU debate, not least because they have much less to gain a lot more to lose, potentially, from doing so, as they can point to it as a private arrangement between two 'minor' parties, and so of course there is no requirement to offer Farage a seat at the 'proper' debates.
In the Euro debate Clegg called out Farage and Farage said he could hardly have said no, but I'm not sure how it would work at GE time if Farage is not, as I suspect, to be included in the official debates. Clegg is unlikely to challenge Farage to a debate as the election is not about the EU debate, and while Farage really had to accept a direct challenge, would he want to challenge just Clegg to a debate? He's already in effect challenged all three leaders to a debate by saying he should be included, so having not got that, would he not just not debate any of them even one on one, in favour of criticising the official exclusion, given he will want to be seen to challenging the PM candidates on all issues, and not, like the Euro debate, embodying the pro side of the Eu debate which UKIP characterizes as them vs all the others, so it doesn't matter which of Clegg, Cameron or Miliband was debated.
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
Lab 39% SNP 37% Con 19% Grn 2% UKIP 2% LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
And, Danny Alexander is still safe ? I know this is a Euro poll, but Westminster GE VI would not be hugely different, I think. As far as the Scots are concerned , the Liberals have become "Aenglish".
Orkney and Shetlands would still return Liberals though.
Maybe, Stuart can answer this ? Why is Labout number one in the poll, whereas since the last Holyrood elections, we were told the SNP is the number one party.
It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.
Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.
I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there. This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country. If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?
Its quite interesting and not quite what you would think from the headline. I wonder what, if anything, we can gain from the results.
I recall taking this test before and remain a 'cosmopolitan critic', though I have a higher percentage of 'calm pesistence' than before, which I think means I am becoming slightly more hopeful about how things are going, though not convinced of it yet.
It's great to see Morus posting here again on the occasion of PB's tenth anniversary. I suspect I'm not alone in believing his period of involvement marked the site's high point characterised not only by his considerable intellect, but also by a good deal of kindness and consideration, irrespective of political differences - aspects which are all too often lacking these days.
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
"Outside the Treasury, only the Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, Iain Duncan Smith, Steve Webb (the Lib Dem pensions minister), David Willetts, Oliver Letwin and Nigel Lawson were tipped off to this commercially sensitive blueprint."
No wonder it didn't leak, especially as it didn't go near dear old Uncle Vince's department.
Also, from the same article...
"First, down in the dank and blood-soaked bear pit of party politics, the cap presents Labour with a dilemma. Does the Opposition vote with the Government on Wednesday in favour of the measure? The initial response by Ed Balls was the smart one: since Labour supports the idea of a welfare cap, it would not oppose Osborne in the division lobbies over this particular policy. But the Chancellor has attached the cap to his Charter for Budget Responsibility in such a way that, essentially, Labour will be voting for the Coalition’s deficit reduction programme if it votes for the £119.5 billion ceiling."
Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.
Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
I thought that was the most interesting of yesterday's polls before seeing it filtered on certaitny to vote. It may change by May but on paper this looks better and better for the Conservatives. I doubt if it is solely down to the budget and will be interesting to see how all this affects the sindyref polling.
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
Lab 39% SNP 37% Con 19% Grn 2% UKIP 2% LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
Yep I noticed that , I also noticed that the Scottish sub sample was somewhat at variance with the reality of what happened in 2010 with 30% saying they had voted SNP and just 5% saying they had voted Lib Dem . Always a danger with sub samples as I have been telling you on here almost since the site was set up .
Happy 10th Birthday PB.com. Many congratulations to Mike and the team and thank you for running such an enjoyable and informative website. I cannot remember when I first began to view the site or posted, I would hazard a guess it was quite early on as I remember meeting a pb.com poster at the Conservative Party conference around 2005 and I attended one of the early PB.com meet-ups in London before Dirty Dicks became the meeting place. I don't post much, but I regularly read and consistently find myself becoming better informed on a whole host of issues (particularly useful as I have rarely gambled on politics). I also enjoy the off-topic discussions around good books to read or films to watch.
I wish the website all the best for the next 10 years and I hope that yours and my football team Mike can give you a late birthday present by confirming promotion back to the top league of English football. Have a great day!
Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.
Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:
Cons: 38.9% LAB: 36.6% LDs: 9,58% UKIP: 11.98%
Would that not give Labour most seats ?
Could well do so, but would have to do a regional/constituency split to be more exact.
For example, how many of the Labour votes would be used in the North where they have a large advantage or in the Midlands/Wales where they have a narrow advantage?
The Tartars came to Crimea from central Asia, and displaced the Byzantine Greeks. As Russia sees itself as the protector of the Eastern Orthodox tradition it could be said that they were just restoring the status quo ante.
The point is not to get involved in whose blood is linked to which land (thereby exists only wars) but to ensure that the rights of minorities are respected. We should engage with the Crimeans to help draft some legal protections for Crimean Tartars and Ukranians in return for recognising the incorporation into Russia. Ukraine itself would benefit from similar enshrinement of minority rights and the development of proper rule of law. There have been some unacceptable acts in Kyiv recently, such as this: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/19/ukranian-tv-boss-assaulted-and-forced-to-resign-by-far-right-svoboda-mps/
It should be clear to Ukraine that these sorts of actions are not compatible with EU support.
Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.
I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.
Both outcomes would suit Putin. An invasion which restored order would not result in a military response from the Western powers and would give him maximum power in any subsequent negotiations.
For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.
Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.
I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.
Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.
The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.
Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.
I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there. This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country. If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?
This is not about wills, it's about the presence of Sharia Law enacted as part of British law. And it is Sharia Law that lays down prohibitions and exceptions in accordance to the whims of Islamic scholars, and I don't want the British legal system to have anything to do with it. This not about how UKIP thinks, it's how I think.
By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.
Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!
I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.
Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.
I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there. This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country. If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?
This is not about wills, it's about the presence of Sharia Law enacted as part of British law.
I think you have mis-understood. The Law Society wants to make sure Wills that follow Sharia Law are consistent with British law - not the other way round....British Law remains supreme.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:
Lab 39% SNP 37% Con 19% Grn 2% UKIP 2% LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
And, Danny Alexander is still safe ? I know this is a Euro poll, but Westminster GE VI would not be hugely different, I think. As far as the Scots are concerned , the Liberals have become "Aenglish".
Orkney and Shetlands would still return Liberals though.
Maybe, Stuart can answer this ? Why is Labout number one in the poll, whereas since the last Holyrood elections, we were told the SNP is the number one party.
The Scottish Lib Dems are doing much, much better on Westminster VI. They are twice as popular, on two percent.
Talking of Shetland:
Result of yesterday's Shetland Althing debate on IndyRef
Pre-discussion For 58 Against 57 Don't know 31
Motion, "The time is right for Scottish independence"
Speaking for Proposer Mike McKenzie MSP Seconder Danus Skene
Speaking against Alastair Carmicheal MP, Secretary of State for Scotland Ian Duncan, Conservative No 1 EU elections
Tingwall Hall Saturday 22 March
After discussion For 70 Against 48 Don't know 22
Secretary of State beaten in his own constituency!
By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.
Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!
I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
Geoff, Did you make a small profit on the cup result last week. I had toyed with draw / draw but in the end thought Aberdeen would just make it in normal time. Came out ahead though.
Many many months after a Turkish plane was shot down by the Syrian, the Turks have just just done the same right back. Syrian FGA aircraft shot down by Turkish air defences within the last 18 hours.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.
Is there evidence that these techniques are cruel? If there is, then we need to look at whether we allow them. Religions/superstitions/belief systems should not be used as justification for cruelty. I don't know the answers, but think it is valid to ask the question.
I think the problem though is that if I, as a non Jew or Muslim, were to kill an animal following the Kosher or Halal methods then I could be prosecuted for animal cruelty. The laws should apply equally to all or to none.
A problem the West has is that it starts from the assumption that Russia wants to be 'western'. or that it will adopt 'western' values if exposed to our 'more developed' culture. This assumption is held at all levels from transnational down to personal, and I have been as mistaken as any in sharing it.
This judgement is not simple. Russia is not Saudi Arabia, where the cultural and political divide with the West is polarised and extreme. There are temples to Europe all over Russia and a large cosmopolitan minority which is happy to wear our clothes and values.
But these European surfaces are Potemkin villages. Go behind the facade and there is no substance. Arbitrary, centralised, corrupt and ruthless exercise of power is all. But in an indolent and spasmodic way which is uniquely Russian and allows endless exceptions when there is no threat to the core.
The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.
Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.
You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).
Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.
MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.
The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes.
But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.
Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.
Congratulations Mike on setting up such a wonderful site. Plenty of diverse opinions on politics, but with added value with recommendations on web news stories, history, music and books. Not sure how I could a value on those.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
I'm sure that Alistair Darling, Blair McDougall and Johann Lamont will all be changing their breeks as we speak.
Congratulations Mike. It's a great site for anyone interested in politics and of course political outcomes. I have been reading this daily since I think 2006 and other than playing the Election Game, I keep my head below the parapet as a "lurker". Long may the site continue its independence and that you Mike, remain at its heart.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.
Maybe we should use something with a consistent methodology to do these swingback calculations. I'm thinking by-elections.
The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.
Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.
You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).
Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.
MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.
The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes. But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.
Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.
Avery you are on form today. Why do we have to suffer that buffoon Hague when we could have you on the job.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
For those who believe this is remotely possible, Sportingbet's odds of 6/4 against the Tories winning the most seats at the 2015 GE look to be outstanding value.
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.
Maybe we should use something with a consistent methodology to do these swingback calculations. I'm thinking by-elections.
By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.
Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!
I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
Geoff, Did you make a small profit on the cup result last week. I had toyed with draw / draw but in the end thought Aberdeen would just make it in normal time. Came out ahead though.
Firstly, many thanks for your tips. Yes, a very small profit - mostly due to my greater confidence in the half time draw idea.
My "very small, just for interest" stakes returned enough for a pint which I duly raised to you when I collected. I hope you enjoyed the game yourself as well.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic.
SLab have faked everything else, so let's see how well they can fake sincerity.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....
French municipal elections first round today I believe and the Mayor of Paris election so will find out late afternoon, early evening first results
They use a strange non-proportional, non-compensatory closed list system.
Lists are 'zipped' by law.
Round 1. A list which wins >50% (and 25% of the electorate) wins outright, but they win a bonus of 50% of the seats, plus their proportional share of the remaining 50%.
In councils where a second round is required, all lists gaining over 10% can participate, while those over 5% may merge with another list (provided it got over 10%). Lists may drop out, if they prefer.
Round 2. The plurality-winning list wins the 50% seat bonus, plus their proportional share of the remaining seats.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
They are totally deluded , talking to themselves and not many at that. 95 in the hall today , can you believe it. You wonder why they still hire large halls and make themselves look stupid. Down to getting similar numbers to the Tories , how embarrassing. Worst was all the guff about how they would reverse all the bad SNP policies when they won in 2016. This is the real picture on labour http://www.commentisntfree.com/ears-wide-shut/
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....
Given Balls vetoed their "more powers" and labour will vote yes on the Tory welfare limits , they have no chance of persuading anyone that even 1% of their guff is real.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....
Yep, that's the bent conrod that's looks likely to shake the One Nation Labour engine apart (and the UK if you believe SLAB are the main torchbearers for the Union).
Rod Thanks, it is slightly different to Presidential and Assembly second rounds at Municipal level. Off out now, but will have an eye on the results this evening
Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.
Of course. I forgot that Peter Kellner knows absolutely nothing about polling and didn't reflect the improvements in methodology pioneered by, among others, YouGov, over the last 10 years in his thinking.
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.
The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....
Lovely to see some Unionist on Unionist action. More please. Lots more.
Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic.
SLab have faked everything else, so let's see how well they can fake sincerity.
To quote Flanders and Swann: "always be sincere, even when you don't mean it."
YouGov on the new £ coin shows them least enthusiastic: (adopting the methodology of an interested party which shall remain nameless, and adding the "neutrals" to "dislike"):
In Favour of new pound (net): London: +31 RoS: +31 Mid/W: +35 North: +35 Scot: +12
Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Thanks again to everyone.
What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Thanks again to everyone.
What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
Brian is on twitter as @HD2onPBdotcom Don't know about the other two. In fact, the name of the WW1 enthusiast escapes me for the moment. Do you remember?
Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Thanks again to everyone.
I miss the days on here of lib dems and yellow taxi's ;-)
Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Thanks again to everyone.
What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
Brian is on twitter as @HD2onPBdotcom Don't know about the other two. In fact, the name of the WW1 enthusiast escapes me for the moment. Do you remember?
The latter was a fervent hater of Lib Dems - I think he was permanently banned. Forever challenging other posters to races across Dorset wearing army backpacks..
... so, I unlurk for a first ever post to say congratulations on 10 years. I'm a regular reader and enjoy and appreciate the posts - well done to Mike Smithson and thank you for a brilliant blog.
Comments
I have been moderated a number of times, though not yet banned. I think the moderators do a great job on the whole.
Is OGH wanting to raise some loot for his easter egg fund? Today may be a good day to do so!
Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:
Cons: 38.9%
LAB: 36.6%
LDs: 9,58%
UKIP: 11.98%
He does not show such glee at the numbers any more, however he is professional and at least states the correct position.
Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :
Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
Con 30.0% (+2.1)
Lab 28.7% (NC)
Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
LD 7.4% (NC)
Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf
Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
I've been panicking for a year - I'd agree that the later the No side panic the better for your lot, as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum.
Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
Totally agree Stuart , but they seem to be deflating quicker than expected , I too would prefer August but cannot see it taking that long now.
Euro VI - Scotland
Lab 39%
SNP 37%
Con 19%
Grn 2%
UKIP 2%
LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
If the Kiev government really winds them up - reviving the language issue, for instance - that could change, but the pro-Russian incidents in Eastern Ukraine have been too sporadic and feeble to be more than local hotheads with a bit of low-key encouragement. And I'm quite sure that Putin doesn't want the Western Ukraine, wrestling with the Kaidan crowds on a daily basis. I think Russia will just demand the market price for gas and wait for either the West to write the cheques or Ukraine to ask for help.
What's more, I think the West has tacitily agreed all this. The retaliation against the incorporation of Crimea has been laughably trivial - a few people can't visit the West so easily, shrug. There have been a number of comments from Germany and others that an incursion into Eastern Ukraine would be another matter.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10715805/Ukraine-fiasco-marks-end-of-the-EUs-imperial-dream.html
It bombed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26689333
Its quite interesting and not quite what you would think from the headline. I wonder what, if anything, we can gain from the results.
One of the things that make this site unique and so often entertaining is how there can be three or four conversations on wildly different topics going on in the same thread. I have seen earnest debates on the merits of a voting system nestled in with discussions of elements of Byzantine history mixed up with tips on a race meeting and some semi-obligatory Frog bashing. Its like a virtual public bar but where you can hear every conversation that is going on.
Again well done Mike and thanks to all you PBers who together make this the one the most informative and certainly the most civilised, mostly, political sites around.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2014/03/23/97001-20140323FILWWW00056-municipales-2014-le-taux-de-participation-a-midi.php
OpEd: We congratulate Mike Smithson and his team for 10 years of politicalbetting.com - long may it continue to be Britain's most-read political blog!
We cautiously welcome Pension and Savings changes in last week's Budget!
Vladimir Putin denies wanting to turn Crimea into the world's biggest Bingo hall!
Sean T laughs off claims that Primrose Hill is the "ponciest" part of London!
Mystic Smeg: "I predict either a Yes or a No victory in the Scots referendum!"
All the latest movie reviews with our Mark Commode!
And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
I imagine that is one of the reasons that Cameron and Miliband didn't deign to be involved in the EU debate, not least because they have much less to gain a lot more to lose, potentially, from doing so, as they can point to it as a private arrangement between two 'minor' parties, and so of course there is no requirement to offer Farage a seat at the 'proper' debates.
In the Euro debate Clegg called out Farage and Farage said he could hardly have said no, but I'm not sure how it would work at GE time if Farage is not, as I suspect, to be included in the official debates. Clegg is unlikely to challenge Farage to a debate as the election is not about the EU debate, and while Farage really had to accept a direct challenge, would he want to challenge just Clegg to a debate? He's already in effect challenged all three leaders to a debate by saying he should be included, so having not got that, would he not just not debate any of them even one on one, in favour of criticising the official exclusion, given he will want to be seen to challenging the PM candidates on all issues, and not, like the Euro debate, embodying the pro side of the Eu debate which UKIP characterizes as them vs all the others, so it doesn't matter which of Clegg, Cameron or Miliband was debated.
Orkney and Shetlands would still return Liberals though.
Maybe, Stuart can answer this ? Why is Labout number one in the poll, whereas since the last Holyrood elections, we were told the SNP is the number one party.
Off topic, has the BBC taken their love for the Guardian to new depths with 2/3 of the hacks on the Sunday politics show coming from the Guardian?
I suspect I'm not alone in believing his period of involvement marked the site's high point characterised not only by his considerable intellect, but also by a good deal of kindness and consideration, irrespective of political differences - aspects which are all too often lacking these days.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10715788/Osborne-has-marked-the-borders-of-Benefit-Land.html
No wonder it didn't leak, especially as it didn't go near dear old Uncle Vince's department.
Also, from the same article...
"First, down in the dank and blood-soaked bear pit of party politics, the cap presents Labour with a dilemma. Does the Opposition vote with the Government on Wednesday in favour of the measure? The initial response by Ed Balls was the smart one: since Labour supports the idea of a welfare cap, it would not oppose Osborne in the division lobbies over this particular policy. But the Chancellor has attached the cap to his Charter for Budget Responsibility in such a way that, essentially, Labour will be voting for the Coalition’s deficit reduction programme if it votes for the £119.5 billion ceiling."
I wish the website all the best for the next 10 years and I hope that yours and my football team Mike can give you a late birthday present by confirming promotion back to the top league of English football. Have a great day!
For example, how many of the Labour votes would be used in the North where they have a large advantage or in the Midlands/Wales where they have a narrow advantage?
The point is not to get involved in whose blood is linked to which land (thereby exists only wars) but to ensure that the rights of minorities are respected. We should engage with the Crimeans to help draft some legal protections for Crimean Tartars and Ukranians in return for recognising the incorporation into Russia. Ukraine itself would benefit from similar enshrinement of minority rights and the development of proper rule of law. There have been some unacceptable acts in Kyiv recently, such as this: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/19/ukranian-tv-boss-assaulted-and-forced-to-resign-by-far-right-svoboda-mps/
It should be clear to Ukraine that these sorts of actions are not compatible with EU support.
It means I don't have to look at Twitter
Long may it prosper. Great to see so many familiar "faces" posting today. Best wishes to all.
Did someone mention the Villa?
The constant education available combined with the insight, laughter and joy of discussion give PB a unique mix.
Thank you, Mike, Robert and all other contributors, Mods and posters.
A 10-month old blog is newsworthy these days - 10 years is extraordinary!
Talking of Shetland:
Result of yesterday's Shetland Althing debate on IndyRef
Pre-discussion
For 58
Against 57
Don't know 31
Motion, "The time is right for Scottish independence"
Speaking for
Proposer Mike McKenzie MSP
Seconder Danus Skene
Speaking against
Alastair Carmicheal MP, Secretary of State for Scotland
Ian Duncan, Conservative No 1 EU elections
Tingwall Hall
Saturday
22 March
After discussion
For 70
Against 48
Don't know 22
Secretary of State beaten in his own constituency!
Thanks as well to those who have made donations to the site. That is really welcome especially as our display advertising revenue continues to fall.
Fans of BBC4's "The Bridge" will understand this - thanks to our Swedish/Scots poster who has helped me understand better the Swedish detective, Saga.
Many many months after a Turkish plane was shot down by the Syrian, the Turks have just just done the same right back. Syrian FGA aircraft shot down by Turkish air defences within the last 18 hours.
It hasn't gone away you know.
Nick
A problem the West has is that it starts from the assumption that Russia wants to be 'western'. or that it will adopt 'western' values if exposed to our 'more developed' culture. This assumption is held at all levels from transnational down to personal, and I have been as mistaken as any in sharing it.
This judgement is not simple. Russia is not Saudi Arabia, where the cultural and political divide with the West is polarised and extreme. There are temples to Europe all over Russia and a large cosmopolitan minority which is happy to wear our clothes and values.
But these European surfaces are Potemkin villages. Go behind the facade and there is no substance. Arbitrary, centralised, corrupt and ruthless exercise of power is all. But in an indolent and spasmodic way which is uniquely Russian and allows endless exceptions when there is no threat to the core.
The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.
Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.
You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).
Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.
MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.
The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes.
But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.
Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.
Long may the site continue its independence and that you Mike, remain at its heart.
Labour leader Johann Lamont went on attack against the SNP at her party's conference but is failing to see the bigger picture on independence
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/news/sunday-mail-opinion-labour-leader-3274010
Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move
http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559
job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#
One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!
As ever, DYOR
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/10/sunils-by-election-analysis-which-partys-has-done-best-and-which-worst-in-current-parliament/
The British public see this year's budget as the fairest since 2010 – and nine of its policies are supported by a majority
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/21/budget-2014-fairest-since-2010/
My "very small, just for interest" stakes returned enough for a pint which I duly raised to you when I collected. I hope you enjoyed the game yourself as well.
Lists are 'zipped' by law.
Round 1. A list which wins >50% (and 25% of the electorate) wins outright, but they win a bonus of 50% of the seats, plus their proportional share of the remaining 50%.
In councils where a second round is required, all lists gaining over 10% can participate, while those over 5% may merge with another list (provided it got over 10%). Lists may drop out, if they prefer.
Round 2. The plurality-winning list wins the 50% seat bonus, plus their proportional share of the remaining seats.
You wonder why they still hire large halls and make themselves look stupid. Down to getting similar numbers to the Tories , how embarrassing. Worst was all the guff about how they would reverse all the bad SNP policies when they won in 2016.
This is the real picture on labour
http://www.commentisntfree.com/ears-wide-shut/
Rod Thanks, it is slightly different to Presidential and Assembly second rounds at Municipal level. Off out now, but will have an eye on the results this evening
This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.
There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!
Thanks again to everyone.
YouGov on the new £ coin shows them least enthusiastic: (adopting the methodology of an interested party which shall remain nameless, and adding the "neutrals" to "dislike"):
In Favour of new pound (net):
London: +31
RoS: +31
Mid/W: +35
North: +35
Scot: +12
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/23/britain-likes-look-new-1-coin/
Don't know about the other two.
In fact, the name of the WW1 enthusiast escapes me for the moment. Do you remember?