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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    As a matter of interest is there any party staffers just spouting the party line, as Stuart claims?

    My impression is that those on here who have party positions are all more intelligent and nuanced than that, and all deviate at times from official positions.

    I do find the prospect of six more months of Scotnat posting a little depressing, little rays of sunshine that they are.

    The only group that never criticise their own party are the Scot Nats/SNP.

    UKIP and the Lib Dems are usually pretty forgiving of their own parties, Labour, and in particular Con, less so....

    More lies from you , sweeping inaccurate horse manure as ever , and before you ask go and find your own links
    Usual bluster - remind us, when did you last criticise Salmond or the SNP.......?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    An amnesty rather than a pardon would be fitting. A pardon implies that they were wrongly treated, an amnesty is just a clean slate.

    I have been moderated a number of times, though not yet banned. I think the moderators do a great job on the whole.

    Is OGH wanting to raise some loot for his easter egg fund? Today may be a good day to do so!

    Perhaps it would be fitting for the PB hierarchy to issue a formal pardon to all expelled miscreant posters on this auspicious day.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Charles said:

    My understanding - but this is a vague recollection - was that it is really a public health matter. If you are in a hot country without refrigeration then you need to avoid wormy meats such as pork or foods like shellfish that are likely to make you ill.

    I thought you were not meant to re-heat white-meats: They retain bacteria that result in dioxins [?] being spread within said cooled produce. I did go to school in a Sarf' Luhnduhn Compo though (innit)!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    surbiton said:

    Any chance of tim and Plato appearing today for a piece of cake?

    Oh ! That would be nice.
    You have to be joking
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Perhaps it would be fitting for the PB hierarchy to issue a formal pardon to all expelled miscreant posters on this auspicious day.

    Like a moderation Jubilee, sounds like a great idea. Are there still people out there who are permanently banned though?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    @Carnyx - "2. Accepted Devomax, and then exerted leadership on the rest of the UK to to bring it about. Whether this was practical with the Tory backbenchers, for a start, is another matter; but he could have said "look here, this means we instantly win the referendum, so just shut up, OK?"."

    I have no idea on this, but would the SNP have been content to wait for a UK-wide Devomax settlement to have been agreed before holding a referendum? It's not something that could have been carved out of thin air, it would have taken time to sort out.


    I know there is a doctrine (under the conveniently unwritten constitution) that the decisions of one administration at Westminster don't bind the next, but if an all-party agreement could be reached then the implications of later breaching it would have been so serious that a de facto binding agreement could have been achieved, presumably.

    The question of whether devomax (ie all except defence and external relations) could be accepted by EWNI is perhaps another matter, but if it meant saving the union for the foreseeable future with the minimum of grief ...?

    In their arrogance they chose to gamble on all or nothing and it looks like they will get just what they deserve , NOTHING.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    BobaFett said:


    Is there evidence that these techniques are cruel? If there is, then we need to look at whether we allow them. Religions/superstitions/belief systems should not be used as justification for cruelty. I don't know the answers, but think it is valid to ask the question.

    I think the problem though is that if I, as a non Jew or Muslim, were to kill an animal following the Kosher or Halal methods then I could be prosecuted for animal cruelty. The laws should apply equally to all or to none.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2014
    Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.

    Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:

    Cons: 38.9%
    LAB: 36.6%
    LDs: 9,58%
    UKIP: 11.98%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

    FPT:

    4:45AM edited 4:50AM
    Details of the SIndy poll:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

    And John Curtice' take on it:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

    Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

    Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
    As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
    It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position
    I suspect he's modified his position because the data has changed....something that cannot be said of all, who hold the same view irrespective of the data......



    He does not show such glee at the numbers any more, however he is professional and at least states the correct position.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited March 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

    FPT:

    4:45AM edited 4:50AM
    Details of the SIndy poll:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

    And John Curtice' take on it:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

    Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

    Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
    As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
    This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well.
    Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.

    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    Sep 2013 - 20.0%
    Sep 2013 - 18.4%
    Oct 2013 - 17.9%
    Oct 2013 - 17.5%
    Oct 2013 - 17.4%
    Nov 2013 - 17.5%
    Dec 2013 - 17.1%
    Dec 2013 - 16.3%
    Dec 2013 - 16.2%
    Dec 2013 - 15.8%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.7%
    Feb 2014 - 15.1%
    Feb 2014 - 13.6%
    Feb 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 13.6%
    Mar 2014 - 12.9%

    Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited March 2014
    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    malcolmg said:

    Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

    FPT:

    4:45AM edited 4:50AM
    Details of the SIndy poll:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

    And John Curtice' take on it:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

    Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

    Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
    As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
    This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well.
    Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    Sep 2013 - 20.0%
    Sep 2013 - 18.4%
    Oct 2013 - 17.9%
    Oct 2013 - 17.5%
    Oct 2013 - 17.4%
    Nov 2013 - 17.5%
    Dec 2013 - 17.1%
    Dec 2013 - 16.3%
    Dec 2013 - 16.2%
    Dec 2013 - 15.8%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.7%
    Feb 2014 - 15.1%
    Feb 2014 - 13.6%
    Feb 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 13.6%
    Mar 2014 - 12.9%

    Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.
    I've been panicking for a year - I'd agree that the later the No side panic the better for your lot, as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Congratulations on reaching this milestone, Mike and the team.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    An amnesty rather than a pardon would be fitting. A pardon implies that they were wrongly treated, an amnesty is just a clean slate.

    I have been moderated a number of times, though not yet banned. I think the moderators do a great job on the whole.

    Is OGH wanting to raise some loot for his easter egg fund? Today may be a good day to do so!

    Perhaps it would be fitting for the PB hierarchy to issue a formal pardon to all expelled miscreant posters on this auspicious day.

    Only if Martin Day comes back...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

    FPT:

    4:45AM edited 4:50AM
    Details of the SIndy poll:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

    And John Curtice' take on it:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

    Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

    Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....
    As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....
    This is another new poll showing move to YES. It is very noteworthy that Curtice has modified his position, he must see which way the wind is blowingh as he sees NO heading for the toilet. Herald has moved considerably recently and only the Daily Retard and the toilet paper Scotsman are trying to pretend that NO is doing well.
    Come May when we see YES on parity or ahead it will be joyful to behold the panic.
    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    Sep 2013 - 20.0%
    Sep 2013 - 18.4%
    Oct 2013 - 17.9%
    Oct 2013 - 17.5%
    Oct 2013 - 17.4%
    Nov 2013 - 17.5%
    Dec 2013 - 17.1%
    Dec 2013 - 16.3%
    Dec 2013 - 16.2%
    Dec 2013 - 15.8%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.7%
    Feb 2014 - 15.1%
    Feb 2014 - 13.6%
    Feb 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 13.6%
    Mar 2014 - 12.9%

    Malcolm, I don't give a toss if we are ahead in May or not. Frankly, the later Yes go ahead the better. As long as they are panicking at 10 pm on the evening of 18 September I will be happy.

    Totally agree Stuart , but they seem to be deflating quicker than expected , I too would prefer August but cannot see it taking that long now.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Millsy said:

    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

    Mark Senior, look away now.

    Euro VI - Scotland

    Lab 39%
    SNP 37%
    Con 19%
    Grn 2%
    UKIP 2%
    LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    surbiton said:

    AveryLP said:

    Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

    I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

    rom the western banks of the Dnieper.

    I am not sure Putin wants to occupy the Ukraine or even to bring the whole country into Russia's sphere of influence. His goal is to keep the Ukraine's destiny within his power and to avoid further NATO encroachment. Asset stripping the South and East or splitting the country on Russian terms is the most likely outcome.

    Putin will want to restrict the West to a demilitarised and deindustrialised Eastern Ukraine, with the costs of supporting its development on the US and the EU's books.

    For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.

    Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.

    I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.

    ...

    Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.

    The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
    If it was none of business that Russia annexed the place because the majority there want that, it's none of our business what happen to anyone else that is there. Either we have a right to comment and act in the affairs in Crimea, if we deem it right to do so, or we don't. I would suggest a slim majority of opinion in the country is that we don't under any circumstances (though that is no my view), so we, the west, and Crimea will have to accept the consequences of that, which hopefully will not be as bad as it could be.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Financier said:

    Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.

    Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:

    Cons: 38.9%
    LAB: 36.6%
    LDs: 9,58%
    UKIP: 11.98%

    What would that mean in terms of MPs ? A few Lab gains from LDs ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,565
    AveryLP said:

    Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

    I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

    The Russian army will also remain massed on the Ukraine border with the implicit threat that any military intervention by NATO or its allies will result in a full invasion.

    The net effect of these actions will be to make it difficult, expensive and unrewarding for the EU and US to incorporate Eastern Ukraine into their 'western' sphere of influence.

    The situation in the Ukraine will either deteriorate into widespread civil unrest - a "civil war" - and 'justify' invasion by Russia, or, it will stagnate as a failed and ungovernable state.

    You may be right, and obviously know the scene better than I do. But my impression, supported by a discussion that I had with a senior Duma member when I was over there (who I was seeing in an animal welfare context, but I asked him his view of Crimea etc.) is that Putin and probably most Russians see Crimea as a non-negotiable issue but are less interested in the Eastern Ukraine, partly for the semi-respectable and pragmatic reason that the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine are less solidly keen to become part of Russia than Crimeans mostly seem to be.

    If the Kiev government really winds them up - reviving the language issue, for instance - that could change, but the pro-Russian incidents in Eastern Ukraine have been too sporadic and feeble to be more than local hotheads with a bit of low-key encouragement. And I'm quite sure that Putin doesn't want the Western Ukraine, wrestling with the Kaidan crowds on a daily basis. I think Russia will just demand the market price for gas and wait for either the West to write the cheques or Ukraine to ask for help.

    What's more, I think the West has tacitily agreed all this. The retaliation against the incorporation of Crimea has been laughably trivial - a few people can't visit the West so easily, shrug. There have been a number of comments from Germany and others that an incursion into Eastern Ukraine would be another matter.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Plato said:

    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.

    No cat photos? Just for old times' sake?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Charles said:

    My understanding - but this is a vague recollection - was that it is really a public health matter. If you are in a hot country without refrigeration then you need to avoid wormy meats such as pork or foods like shellfish that are likely to make you ill.

    In addition, complete exsanguination ensures that no blood is left in the carcase, which could also lead to spoilage. Bleeding the animal while the heart is still beating ensures that this happens. As I understand it, all if not most halal slaughter in the UK is electrically pre-stunned, as the imams will accept a form of stunning that does not kill the animal (whereas captive bolt stunning can).

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    surbiton said:

    AveryLP said:

    Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

    I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

    Both outcomes would suit Putin. An invasion which restored order would not result in a military response from the Western powers and would give him maximum power in any subsequent negotiations.

    Even a stalemate would work the same way, but on a longer timescale. The threat of unilateral escalation would make it difficult for the West to make a major and meaningful intervention and also keep 'NATO' away from the western banks of the Dnieper.

    I am not sure Putin wants to occupy the Ukraine or even to bring the whole country into Russia's sphere of influence. His goal is to keep the Ukraine's destiny within his power and to avoid further NATO encroachment. Asset stripping the South and East or splitting the country on Russian terms is the most likely outcome.

    Putin will want to restrict the West to a demilitarised and deindustrialised Eastern Ukraine, with the costs of supporting its development on the US and the EU's books.

    For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.

    Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.

    I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.

    ...

    Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.

    The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
    Check-Mate in the Crimea. The EU gets a bloody nose:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10715805/Ukraine-fiasco-marks-end-of-the-EUs-imperial-dream.html
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    surbiton said:

    Did someone write that tim had started his own blog ?

    There was one, co-written with Martin Coxall, a few years ago.

    It bombed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited March 2014
    Take the test: Which political tribe are you?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26689333

    Its quite interesting and not quite what you would think from the headline. I wonder what, if anything, we can gain from the results.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    To add my congratulations to Mike and his team on ten successful years and my thanks to all the PBers who have contributed to my fund of knowledge in so many fields and occasionally to my bank balance. Two in particular stick in my mind I had my best race meeting ever thanks to StJohn who gave me the first three races at Goodwood a few years ago (paid for all the day's expenses, refreshment in heroic quantities and still cash to take home) and Mr. Charles for his information on the bishops' appointments, which earned me not only hard cash (which was donated to the Church) but something of a reputation amongst my ecclesiastic friends.

    One of the things that make this site unique and so often entertaining is how there can be three or four conversations on wildly different topics going on in the same thread. I have seen earnest debates on the merits of a voting system nestled in with discussions of elements of Byzantine history mixed up with tips on a race meeting and some semi-obligatory Frog bashing. Its like a virtual public bar but where you can hear every conversation that is going on.

    Again well done Mike and thanks to all you PBers who together make this the one the most informative and certainly the most civilised, mostly, political sites around.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited March 2014
    Amid the birthday celebrations there are municipals in France today which should show which way the wind is blowing ahead of the Euros. A test for Marine LePen


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2014/03/23/97001-20140323FILWWW00056-municipales-2014-le-taux-de-participation-a-midi.php
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday - PB 10th Anniversary special!

    OpEd: We congratulate Mike Smithson and his team for 10 years of politicalbetting.com - long may it continue to be Britain's most-read political blog!
    We cautiously welcome Pension and Savings changes in last week's Budget!
    Vladimir Putin denies wanting to turn Crimea into the world's biggest Bingo hall!
    Sean T laughs off claims that Primrose Hill is the "ponciest" part of London!
    Mystic Smeg: "I predict either a Yes or a No victory in the Scots referendum!"
    All the latest movie reviews with our Mark Commode!
    And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Blueberry said:

    Congratulations Mike and Co on your birthday. Ten years in the digital era has got to be worth 25 analogue years and 50 newspapers years.
    Off topic, something I only realised today is that there are going to be TWO EU debates between Clegg vs Farage: one on LBC on 26 March, hosted by Nick Ferrari, and one on BBC Two on 2 April, hosted by David Dimbleby.

    That's a lot of exposure to the extreme positions. It's bound to affect the terms by which a chunk of voters vote. And in that binary context voting Labour or Conservative is sitting on the fence ie something that people don't like doing. It's certainly a good move by both smaller parties.

    It also opens up the possibility that the GE debates won't necessarily be limited to just three debates on the main TV channels like last time. For instance, say Farage challenged Clegg to debate in the run up the general election? Clegg couldn't say no without looking shifty, given that Farage accepted his offer of an EU debate. And there'd be plenty of media outlets willing to broadcast it.

    I don't think it will actually have much impact at all, though it is worth the chance from both of them that it will, but you may be right about the GE debates, though it's not certain. Clegg I think would be perfectly happy to include Farage because his presence is more likely to hurt Cameron and possibly even Miliband than him, and while there are what I consider reasonable justifications as to why UKIP would not be included as a major party despite being one for the Euros, as Ofcom have ruled I believe, making that distinction would look weaselly.

    I imagine that is one of the reasons that Cameron and Miliband didn't deign to be involved in the EU debate, not least because they have much less to gain a lot more to lose, potentially, from doing so, as they can point to it as a private arrangement between two 'minor' parties, and so of course there is no requirement to offer Farage a seat at the 'proper' debates.

    In the Euro debate Clegg called out Farage and Farage said he could hardly have said no, but I'm not sure how it would work at GE time if Farage is not, as I suspect, to be included in the official debates. Clegg is unlikely to challenge Farage to a debate as the election is not about the EU debate, and while Farage really had to accept a direct challenge, would he want to challenge just Clegg to a debate? He's already in effect challenged all three leaders to a debate by saying he should be included, so having not got that, would he not just not debate any of them even one on one, in favour of criticising the official exclusion, given he will want to be seen to challenging the PM candidates on all issues, and not, like the Euro debate, embodying the pro side of the Eu debate which UKIP characterizes as them vs all the others, so it doesn't matter which of Clegg, Cameron or Miliband was debated.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Millsy said:

    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

    Mark Senior, look away now.

    Euro VI - Scotland

    Lab 39%
    SNP 37%
    Con 19%
    Grn 2%
    UKIP 2%
    LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
    And, Danny Alexander is still safe ? I know this is a Euro poll, but Westminster GE VI would not be hugely different, I think. As far as the Scots are concerned , the Liberals have become "Aenglish".

    Orkney and Shetlands would still return Liberals though.

    Maybe, Stuart can answer this ? Why is Labout number one in the poll, whereas since the last Holyrood elections, we were told the SNP is the number one party.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited March 2014
    MikeK said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    Another betrayal by our so called betters:

    Bas ‏@Hillchaser 46m
    Islamic law is adopted by British legal chiefs | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/E4bhjwG

    It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.

    Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.

    I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there.
    This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country.
    If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
    You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Take the test: Which political tribe are you?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26689333

    Its quite interesting and not quite what you would think from the headline. I wonder what, if anything, we can gain from the results.

    I recall taking this test before and remain a 'cosmopolitan critic', though I have a higher percentage of 'calm pesistence' than before, which I think means I am becoming slightly more hopeful about how things are going, though not convinced of it yet.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Take the test: Which political tribe are you?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26689333

    Its quite interesting and not quite what you would think from the headline. I wonder what, if anything, we can gain from the results.

    High volume of traffic from the morning.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2014
    On topic. Congrats and thanks to Mike OGH.

    Off topic, has the BBC taken their love for the Guardian to new depths with 2/3 of the hacks on the Sunday politics show coming from the Guardian?
  • It's great to see Morus posting here again on the occasion of PB's tenth anniversary.
    I suspect I'm not alone in believing his period of involvement marked the site's high point characterised not only by his considerable intellect, but also by a good deal of kindness and consideration, irrespective of political differences - aspects which are all too often lacking these days.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Plato said:

    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.

    No cat photos? Just for old times' sake?
    Stuart, are you getting friendly with Plato ?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited March 2014
    "Outside the Treasury, only the Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, Iain Duncan Smith, Steve Webb (the Lib Dem pensions minister), David Willetts, Oliver Letwin and Nigel Lawson were tipped off to this commercially sensitive blueprint."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10715788/Osborne-has-marked-the-borders-of-Benefit-Land.html

    No wonder it didn't leak, especially as it didn't go near dear old Uncle Vince's department.

    Also, from the same article...

    "First, down in the dank and blood-soaked bear pit of party politics, the cap presents Labour with a dilemma. Does the Opposition vote with the Government on Wednesday in favour of the measure? The initial response by Ed Balls was the smart one: since Labour supports the idea of a welfare cap, it would not oppose Osborne in the division lobbies over this particular policy. But the Chancellor has attached the cap to his Charter for Budget Responsibility in such a way that, essentially, Labour will be voting for the Coalition’s deficit reduction programme if it votes for the £119.5 billion ceiling."
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Financier said:

    Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.

    Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:

    Cons: 38.9%
    LAB: 36.6%
    LDs: 9,58%
    UKIP: 11.98%

    Would that not give Labour most seats ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Millsy said:

    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

    I thought that was the most interesting of yesterday's polls before seeing it filtered on certaitny to vote. It may change by May but on paper this looks better and better for the Conservatives. I doubt if it is solely down to the budget and will be interesting to see how all this affects the sindyref polling.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Millsy said:

    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

    Mark Senior, look away now.

    Euro VI - Scotland

    Lab 39%
    SNP 37%
    Con 19%
    Grn 2%
    UKIP 2%
    LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
    Yep I noticed that , I also noticed that the Scottish sub sample was somewhat at variance with the reality of what happened in 2010 with 30% saying they had voted SNP and just 5% saying they had voted Lib Dem . Always a danger with sub samples as I have been telling you on here almost since the site was set up .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,377
    Congratulations Mr Smithson and happy birthday PoliticalBetting.com
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited March 2014
    Happy 10th Birthday PB.com. Many congratulations to Mike and the team and thank you for running such an enjoyable and informative website. I cannot remember when I first began to view the site or posted, I would hazard a guess it was quite early on as I remember meeting a pb.com poster at the Conservative Party conference around 2005 and I attended one of the early PB.com meet-ups in London before Dirty Dicks became the meeting place. I don't post much, but I regularly read and consistently find myself becoming better informed on a whole host of issues (particularly useful as I have rarely gambled on politics). I also enjoy the off-topic discussions around good books to read or films to watch.

    I wish the website all the best for the next 10 years and I hope that yours and my football team Mike can give you a late birthday present by confirming promotion back to the top league of English football. Have a great day!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    surbiton said:

    Financier said:

    Well done and thank you, MIke et al for putting up with us all - trust that the resulting stress has not been the cause of the loss of your upper carpet.

    Taking today's YouGov and deriving the numbers of England & Wales from those published, it would be:

    Cons: 38.9%
    LAB: 36.6%
    LDs: 9,58%
    UKIP: 11.98%

    Would that not give Labour most seats ?
    Could well do so, but would have to do a regional/constituency split to be more exact.

    For example, how many of the Labour votes would be used in the North where they have a large advantage or in the Midlands/Wales where they have a narrow advantage?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The Tartars came to Crimea from central Asia, and displaced the Byzantine Greeks. As Russia sees itself as the protector of the Eastern Orthodox tradition it could be said that they were just restoring the status quo ante.

    The point is not to get involved in whose blood is linked to which land (thereby exists only wars) but to ensure that the rights of minorities are respected. We should engage with the Crimeans to help draft some legal protections for Crimean Tartars and Ukranians in return for recognising the incorporation into Russia. Ukraine itself would benefit from similar enshrinement of minority rights and the development of proper rule of law. There have been some unacceptable acts in Kyiv recently, such as this: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/19/ukranian-tv-boss-assaulted-and-forced-to-resign-by-far-right-svoboda-mps/

    It should be clear to Ukraine that these sorts of actions are not compatible with EU support.

    surbiton said:

    AveryLP said:

    Putin's actions in the Crimea have been contingency plans for some time. The whole sequence of occupation, referendum, incorporation within Russia and eviction of Ukrainian forces has followed very detailed and long thought out plans.

    I think his next step will be to destabilise the East and South of the Ukraine politically through local Russian speakers resisting Kiev control; economically by restricting trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to 'approved' partners; and militarily by using incursions selectively to control civil unrest or threats to economic interests.

    Both outcomes would suit Putin. An invasion which restored order would not result in a military response from the Western powers and would give him maximum power in any subsequent negotiations.

    For all Obama's and the EU's sable rattling, I cannot see any other outcome. And the irony is that, as soon as we openly recognise this state of play, Putin will suddenly become the most reasonable of negotiators.

    Russia should be encouraged to have a plebiscite in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, now that they have been convinced of the wisdom of these things.

    I think that Russia has gained the Crimea at the price of the EU border reaching the Dneiper, perhaps even the Don. To the Russians it may not look a triumph.

    ...

    Knowledgeable stuff from Avery. There is little I could disagree with. Whilst I have little problem with the Crimean people's wish to join Mother Russia, we must not forget the original land belonged to the Tatars. Russians were imported into the cRimea by successive Tsars and Communist dictators.

    The Tatars have suffered hugely including forced deportation of an entire community. They need protection and that is where Western attention must be focussed now.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.

    No cat photos? Just for old times' sake?
    Stuart, are you getting friendly with Plato ?

    No. I'm out of her league.

  • Congratulations - Happy birthday to PoliticalBetting.com.

    It means I don't have to look at Twitter
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2014
    A little something for Plato and Stuart, in the spirit of reconciliation some common ground: http://petermorwood.tumblr.com/post/41626265440/amadansmound-bonniegrrl-kitten-in-a-kilt

    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.

    No cat photos? Just for old times' sake?
    Stuart, are you getting friendly with Plato ?

    No. I'm out of her league.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    A little something for Plato and Stuart, in the spirit of reconciliation some common ground: http://petermorwood.tumblr.com/post/41626265440/amadansmound-bonniegrrl-kitten-in-a-kilt

    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    Whilst no longer a contributor or a regular reader of PB - congrats to Mr Smithson Snr and Mr Smithson Jnr. Long may it continue for those who read and add to it.

    No cat photos? Just for old times' sake?
    Stuart, are you getting friendly with Plato ?

    No. I'm out of her league.

    Now everone's happy.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Many congratulations to Mike, Robert and the team. PB is an institution. (Mind you, so was Bedlam!)

    Long may it prosper. Great to see so many familiar "faces" posting today. Best wishes to all.

    Did someone mention the Villa?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Well done to the Birthday boy(s).

    The constant education available combined with the insight, laughter and joy of discussion give PB a unique mix.

    Thank you, Mike, Robert and all other contributors, Mods and posters.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Congrats Mike et al.

    A 10-month old blog is newsworthy these days - 10 years is extraordinary!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    Another betrayal by our so called betters:

    Bas ‏@Hillchaser 46m
    Islamic law is adopted by British legal chiefs | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/E4bhjwG

    It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.

    Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.

    I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there.
    This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country.
    If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
    You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?

    This is not about wills, it's about the presence of Sharia Law enacted as part of British law. And it is Sharia Law that lays down prohibitions and exceptions in accordance to the whims of Islamic scholars, and I don't want the British legal system to have anything to do with it. This not about how UKIP thinks, it's how I think.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    FPT

    By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.

    Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!

    I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MikeK said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    Another betrayal by our so called betters:

    Bas ‏@Hillchaser 46m
    Islamic law is adopted by British legal chiefs | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/E4bhjwG

    It's always been the case that you can do what you like in your will (ignoring some dull exceptions about purpose trusts and remoteness of vesting and such), including disposing of your estate in accordance with the principles of Klingon law if that's what takes your fancy. Giving guidance on the nuts and bolts of how to do so is a useful service, if enough testators want to do it that way, and does not amount to "adopting Klingon law". Nor is the law society "British legal chiefs" in any sane sense of the words.

    Always amazing how little rope a Kipper needs to hang himself with.

    I don't want any part of Sharia Law touching English law that's been laid down bit by bit since Magna Carta. It's the thin edge of the wedge. Once it is established that Sharia is part of the British legal code, then we will have a flood of special Sharia exceptions and it won't end there.
    This is what those exhorters of Islam want - like a fifth column in the body of the country.
    If this is seen as an anti islamist stance - well it is, so there.
    You can ALREADY do what you like in your will, including leaving your property in accordance with sharia law. If you want the situation to change you have to advocate a drastic curtailment of that liberty, for everybody. Is drastic curtailment of civil liberties part of the UKIP philosophy these days?

    This is not about wills, it's about the presence of Sharia Law enacted as part of British law.

    I think you have mis-understood. The Law Society wants to make sure Wills that follow Sharia Law are consistent with British law - not the other way round....British Law remains supreme.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    surbiton said:

    Millsy said:

    In the Survation Euro Parliament poll, among only those certain to vote (44% of sample compared to turnout of 34% in 2009). With changes on 4 Jan 2014:

    Con 30.0% (+2.1)
    Lab 28.7% (NC)
    Ukip 18.3% (+0.9)
    LD 7.4% (NC)
    Oth/DK 15.6% (-2.9)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Budget-Data-Tables-Final.pdf

    Mark Senior, look away now.

    Euro VI - Scotland

    Lab 39%
    SNP 37%
    Con 19%
    Grn 2%
    UKIP 2%
    LD 1% (that is not a typo, it is one percent)
    And, Danny Alexander is still safe ? I know this is a Euro poll, but Westminster GE VI would not be hugely different, I think. As far as the Scots are concerned , the Liberals have become "Aenglish".

    Orkney and Shetlands would still return Liberals though.

    Maybe, Stuart can answer this ? Why is Labout number one in the poll, whereas since the last Holyrood elections, we were told the SNP is the number one party.
    The Scottish Lib Dems are doing much, much better on Westminster VI. They are twice as popular, on two percent.

    Talking of Shetland:

    Result of yesterday's Shetland Althing debate on IndyRef

    Pre-discussion
    For 58
    Against 57
    Don't know 31

    Motion, "The time is right for Scottish independence"

    Speaking for
    Proposer Mike McKenzie MSP
    Seconder Danus Skene

    Speaking against
    Alastair Carmicheal MP, Secretary of State for Scotland
    Ian Duncan, Conservative No 1 EU elections

    Tingwall Hall
    Saturday
    22 March

    After discussion
    For 70
    Against 48
    Don't know 22

    Secretary of State beaten in his own constituency!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    GeoffM said:

    FPT

    By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.

    Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!

    I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
    Geoff, Did you make a small profit on the cup result last week. I had toyed with draw / draw but in the end thought Aberdeen would just make it in normal time. Came out ahead though.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited March 2014
    A big thank you to all the nice things that have been said on the thread and on Twitter. Much appreciated.

    Thanks as well to those who have made donations to the site. That is really welcome especially as our display advertising revenue continues to fall.

    Fans of BBC4's "The Bridge" will understand this - thanks to our Swedish/Scots poster who has helped me understand better the Swedish detective, Saga.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria: Turkey gets its revenge.

    Many many months after a Turkish plane was shot down by the Syrian, the Turks have just just done the same right back. Syrian FGA aircraft shot down by Turkish air defences within the last 18 hours.

    It hasn't gone away you know.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:


    Is there evidence that these techniques are cruel? If there is, then we need to look at whether we allow them. Religions/superstitions/belief systems should not be used as justification for cruelty. I don't know the answers, but think it is valid to ask the question.

    I think the problem though is that if I, as a non Jew or Muslim, were to kill an animal following the Kosher or Halal methods then I could be prosecuted for animal cruelty. The laws should apply equally to all or to none.
    Quite right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Congratulations Mike and all the guest editors and everyone who contributes to PB, now an invaluable political resource and archive for years to come
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    French municipal elections first round today I believe and the Mayor of Paris election so will find out late afternoon, early evening first results
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    @NickPalmer

    Nick

    A problem the West has is that it starts from the assumption that Russia wants to be 'western'. or that it will adopt 'western' values if exposed to our 'more developed' culture. This assumption is held at all levels from transnational down to personal, and I have been as mistaken as any in sharing it.

    This judgement is not simple. Russia is not Saudi Arabia, where the cultural and political divide with the West is polarised and extreme. There are temples to Europe all over Russia and a large cosmopolitan minority which is happy to wear our clothes and values.

    But these European surfaces are Potemkin villages. Go behind the facade and there is no substance. Arbitrary, centralised, corrupt and ruthless exercise of power is all. But in an indolent and spasmodic way which is uniquely Russian and allows endless exceptions when there is no threat to the core.

    The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.

    Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.

    You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).

    Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.

    MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.

    The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes.

    But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.

    Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited March 2014
    Congratulations Mike on setting up such a wonderful site. Plenty of diverse opinions on politics, but with added value with recommendations on web news stories, history, music and books. Not sure how I could a value on those.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    I'm sure that Alistair Darling, Blair McDougall and Johann Lamont will all be changing their breeks as we speak.
  • RobinCRobinC Posts: 2
    Congratulations Mike. It's a great site for anyone interested in politics and of course political outcomes. I have been reading this daily since I think 2006 and other than playing the Election Game, I keep my head below the parapet as a "lurker".
    Long may the site continue its independence and that you Mike, remain at its heart.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Sunday Record Editorial :

    Labour leader Johann Lamont went on attack against the SNP at her party's conference but is failing to see the bigger picture on independence

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/news/sunday-mail-opinion-labour-leader-3274010
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

    Maybe we should use something with a consistent methodology to do these swingback calculations. I'm thinking by-elections.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    AveryLP said:

    @NickPalmer

    Nick



    The Russian bear only becomes animated and dangerous when baited.

    Russia is also different from the Central European countries which indisputably look west and aspire to full integration in Europe. The problem is that the dividing line between the two runs along the line of the Dnieper river, right through the heart of the Ukraine.

    You asked about Moscow Times after your recent trip. This is a classic example of how power protects in Russia, Initially set up as a Gorbachev jv by a somewhat dilettante Dutch entrepreneur, it quickly became clear that its future depended upon politico-financial 'protection' (as do almost all Western ventures in Russia).

    Moscow Times chose as its protector (or vice-versa), the Menatep Industrial-Banking group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who later built up Yukoil. All was fine until Khodorkovsky fell out with Putin and ended up in jail. MT saw what was coming and very quickly and sensibly switched its allegiance to a new Putin friendly protector now hidden within its Finnish holding company.

    MT's editorial was always limited to its expatriate market and its prejudices, but it did mildly flirt with political opposition, or at least independence, under Khodorkovsky. This has not been the case since it was adopted by its new protector. The pro-Western, anti-Crimean intervention articles you read in MT were carefully pre-judged editorial positions rather than real opposition: yet more Potemkin villages.

    The Ukraine is Moscow Times writ large. Provided it accepts Putin's protection it can pretend to be independent and critical of Russia. But if it allies with a perceived competitor to Moscow, the bear will awake from its slumber and rampage across the Ukrainian steppes.
    But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all.

    Russia is no place for idealists and the Ukraine under Yatsenyuk is as unprotected as MT was under the latter day Khordorkovsky.

    Avery you are on form today. Why do we have to suffer that buffoon Hague when we could have you on the
    job.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I didn't realise that IDS was one of the PB Hodges on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#

    One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2014
    ***** Betting Post *****
    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    For those who believe this is remotely possible, Sportingbet's odds of 6/4 against the Tories winning the most seats at the 2015 GE look to be outstanding value.

    As ever, DYOR

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    I didn't realise that IDS was one of the PB Hodges on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#

    One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!

    What would you have liked to have seen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I didn't realise that IDS was one of the PB Hodges on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#

    One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!

    What would you have liked to have seen?
    More or less the same things but from someone in the 'correct' party?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

    Maybe we should use something with a consistent methodology to do these swingback calculations. I'm thinking by-elections.
    Hi Edmund, you mean like this?

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/10/sunils-by-election-analysis-which-partys-has-done-best-and-which-worst-in-current-parliament/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I didn't realise that IDS was one of the PB Hodges on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26705160#

    One of the greatest budgets ever. LOL!

    In terms of this Parliament, the British public seem to agree:

    The British public see this year's budget as the fairest since 2010 – and nine of its policies are supported by a majority

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/21/budget-2014-fairest-since-2010/
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    malcolmg said:

    GeoffM said:

    FPT

    By the way, we've just had the ultimate hung parliament in the PB Diplomacy game - a 7-way draw! Hurst Llama (Turkey) and Monty (Austria) made a good push for a two-way win, initially rolling over most of Corporeal's Italy, while David Roe (Germany), Geoff M (France) and Pulpstar (Russia) all ganged up on me (England). I played for time, Russia was attacked by Austria and switched sides a couple of times to stay alive, and then Austria hit Germany, reducing him to a single centre. Then GeoffM dropped out (by accident) and AndyJS stepped into French shoes, and all five of us formed a popular front to stave off the AT threat and force a near-stalemate.

    Lots of resilience all round and the result was probably fair, even though there was still some play in it. Thanks all!

    I'd like to apologise once more to everyone in that game for my shoddy timekeeping. By missing a few turns I almost ruined the game with France suddenly becoming inactive from a reasonable position. I am delighted to hear that the game not only remained playable but produced an interesting result!
    Geoff, Did you make a small profit on the cup result last week. I had toyed with draw / draw but in the end thought Aberdeen would just make it in normal time. Came out ahead though.
    Firstly, many thanks for your tips. Yes, a very small profit - mostly due to my greater confidence in the half time draw idea.

    My "very small, just for interest" stakes returned enough for a pint which I duly raised to you when I collected. I hope you enjoyed the game yourself as well.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Peter Indeed, but UKIP was not a factor then. The Tories will probably win back enough to be largest party, but a majority is unlikely
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    edited March 2014

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    A big thank you to all the nice things that have been said on the thread and on Twitter. Much appreciated.

    Thanks as well to those who have made donations to the site. That is really welcome especially as our display advertising revenue continues to fall.

    Fans of BBC4's "The Bridge" will understand this - thanks to our Swedish/Scots poster who has helped me understand better the Swedish detective, Saga.

    ROFL!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic.
    SLab have faked everything else, so let's see how well they can fake sincerity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

    The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....

  • HYUFD said:

    Peter Indeed, but UKIP was not a factor then. The Tories will probably win back enough to be largest party, but a majority is unlikely

    Those 6/4 odds from Sportingbet relate to the Tories winning the most seats, NOT to them gaining an overall majority.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2014
    HYUFD said:

    French municipal elections first round today I believe and the Mayor of Paris election so will find out late afternoon, early evening first results

    They use a strange non-proportional, non-compensatory closed list system.

    Lists are 'zipped' by law.

    Round 1. A list which wins >50% (and 25% of the electorate) wins outright, but they win a bonus of 50% of the seats, plus their proportional share of the remaining 50%.

    In councils where a second round is required, all lists gaining over 10% can participate, while those over 5% may merge with another list (provided it got over 10%). Lists may drop out, if they prefer.

    Round 2. The plurality-winning list wins the 50% seat bonus, plus their proportional share of the remaining seats.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a possibility they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

    They are totally deluded , talking to themselves and not many at that. 95 in the hall today , can you believe it.
    You wonder why they still hire large halls and make themselves look stupid. Down to getting similar numbers to the Tories , how embarrassing. Worst was all the guff about how they would reverse all the bad SNP policies when they won in 2016.
    This is the real picture on labour
    http://www.commentisntfree.com/ears-wide-shut/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

    The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....

    Given Balls vetoed their "more powers" and labour will vote yes on the Tory welfare limits , they have no chance of persuading anyone that even 1% of their guff is real.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

    The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....

    Yep, that's the bent conrod that's looks likely to shake the One Nation Labour engine apart (and the UK if you believe SLAB are the main torchbearers for the Union).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Peter OK, that is a more likely proposition.

    Rod Thanks, it is slightly different to Presidential and Assembly second rounds at Municipal level. Off out now, but will have an eye on the results this evening
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2014

    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting article in the ST today in which Peter Kellner says there's always been a swingback to a Tory government in the last 14 months of a parliament. On average, it would put the Tories 7 points ahead in May 2015...

    Kellner's article doesn't mention the huge changes in polling methodology over the past decade or so.

    Of course. I forgot that Peter Kellner knows absolutely nothing about polling and didn't reflect the improvements in methodology pioneered by, among others, YouGov, over the last 10 years in his thinking.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic. Not much chance of 'something for nothing society' Lamont or 'I went to private school and so do my kids' Sarwar managing that.

    The other problem is how they avoid the message getting into (middle) England. The Tories already have the Welsh Labour Government as a stick to beat Labour with - they may add Scottish Labour to the list.....

    Lovely to see some Unionist on Unionist action. More please. Lots more.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.

    This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.

    There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!

    Thanks again to everyone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Scotsman barely a fan either:

    Comment: Labour bid To shift to Left is risky move

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-labour-bid-to-shift-to-left-is-risky-move-1-3350559

    Regardless of the principles involved, a shift to the left would be the smart move for SLAB if there was a chance they could convince anyone it was authentic.
    SLab have faked everything else, so let's see how well they can fake sincerity.
    To quote Flanders and Swann: "always be sincere, even when you don't mean it."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Do the Scots really want to keep the pound?

    YouGov on the new £ coin shows them least enthusiastic: (adopting the methodology of an interested party which shall remain nameless, and adding the "neutrals" to "dislike"):

    In Favour of new pound (net):
    London: +31
    RoS: +31
    Mid/W: +35
    North: +35
    Scot: +12

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/23/britain-likes-look-new-1-coin/
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    GeoffM said:

    Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.

    This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.

    There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!

    Thanks again to everyone.

    What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.

    This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.

    There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!

    Thanks again to everyone.

    What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
    Brian is on twitter as @HD2onPBdotcom‎
    Don't know about the other two.
    In fact, the name of the WW1 enthusiast escapes me for the moment. Do you remember?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GeoffM said:

    Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.

    This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.

    There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!

    Thanks again to everyone.

    I miss the days on here of lib dems and yellow taxi's ;-)

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Having caught up and made it to the top of the thread, I'd now like to add my thanks and congratulations to Mike, Robert, moderators, thread writers and contributors all.

    This site is a wonderfully unique and eclectic mix of topics and points of view which is unrivalled across the 'net. I first commented on here in 2005 when I was living in the UK and very enthused about politics. Whilst there I stood for borough and county council with PB as my evening reading. After that even a 5yr stint in an office where I had to keep my politics very quiet (and it was in our contracts to reveal all social media identities) didn't stop me coming here as a lurker. During that period it was still a rare day that I didn't catch up on every comment made during the day.

    There are some posters I miss - HD2 was always interesting, for example. I don't think there's a single PBer on these days that I wouldn't happily have a pint with - albeit we might have to steer clear of politics and religion in the bar!

    Thanks again to everyone.

    What became of HD2, wageslave and the really cranky WW1 enthusiast from Dorset?
    Brian is on twitter as @HD2onPBdotcom‎
    Don't know about the other two.
    In fact, the name of the WW1 enthusiast escapes me for the moment. Do you remember?
    The latter was a fervent hater of Lib Dems - I think he was permanently banned. Forever challenging other posters to races across Dorset wearing army backpacks..
  • ... so, I unlurk for a first ever post to say congratulations on 10 years. I'm a regular reader and enjoy and appreciate the posts - well done to Mike Smithson and thank you for a brilliant blog.
This discussion has been closed.