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Interesting analysis on the forces at work in Spain and Catalonia:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/23/jitters-mount-over-prospect-of-catalonian-independence.html

Happy Birthday PoliticalBetting.com A great site - thanks for all your hard work Mike.

While Osborne is up, others are down (YouGov):

Best COE (vs 3/2010)

Osborne: 29 (+15)
Balls: 14 (-6 vs Darling)
Cable: 13 (-9)

Happy anniversary. Among the first sites I look at daily. All sorts of informed comment, and not just on politics. Here’s to another ten years!

Who do you trust to make the right decisions regarding the economy (vs 3/2013)

Con/LD coalition: 35 (+3)
Lab: 22 (-6)

So a 4 point verge of MOE gap has opened up to a 13 point lead.....

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting analysis on the forces at work in Spain and Catalonia:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/23/jitters-mount-over-prospect-of-catalonian-independence.html

A very good piece. As I've been saying on here for a while the solution to Spain's Catalonia problem is to give the Catalans what the Basques already have. But for that to happen it needs a change of government in Madrid. That should happen next year.

Hi Mike - Coming out from under my stone to say congratulations & all the best. (Back to lurking now)

Ditto. I surfed in about the same time, though lurked for a long while before posting. I think I surfed in from Crammers blog.

PB is a great site to be on with my AM cup oftea, and also when insomniac.

It is the most civilized (despite occasional lapse) and intelligent interparty blog in existence. Well worth the effort. I am happy to contribute financially from time to time for such a pleasure.

SouthamObserver said:

Congratulations and thank-you Mike. I've been posting since 2008. I've learned a lot and had some great conversations. I've also lost my rag on occasions and have made a complete tit of myself from time to time. It's been a lot of fun. I can't see you retiring just yet - not with the entire UK constitutional settlement about to change so radically, whatever Scotland decides in September.

It's the next few years you have to worry about Mike ....

PB as a spotty acne ridden teenager, full of angst, raging hormones and no respect .... wailing "it's so unfair !!"

All to come ....

Perhaps some of the old contemptibles from 10 years back will show a leg once more as it's a celebration Sunday.

tpfkar said:

Happy anniversary. I think I found PB in 2005 and although I've been far from regular, I've never been able to stay away for long. Feels funny to be fighting re-election to my council seat in 2 months time when it's very possible I'd never have got involved without this site.

Hope Mike and team are still finding it as rewarding and fulfilling as ever, and that JackW is still going strong for the 20th.

Thank you @tpfkar

I'm going to give it a damn good try or die in the process !!

Hhmmmm ....

Happy birthday to PB, and thanks to everyone who works behind the scenes.

PB is really the best political discussion site on the web, and I'm thankful that non-bettors are welcome to discuss HS2 in boring details squirrelsthe latest political events.

Just when you thought Labour's budget mess couldn't get any worse:

Ed’s in cap flap
Labour in turmoil over call to axe benefits limit

LABOUR was in turmoil over benefits last night after letting slip plans to give claimants MORE money.
Welfare spokesman Rachel Reeves said she wanted to reverse changes aimed at saving cash and making work pay.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5525318/Labour-Party-in-turmoil-over-call-to-axe-benefits-limit.html

OGH, thank you for ten years of education, information, and entertainment.

Stuart_Dickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting analysis on the forces at work in Spain and Catalonia:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/23/jitters-mount-over-prospect-of-catalonian-independence.html

That is Spanish (and British) nationalism in a nutshell: they cut off their noses to spite their faces.

Then why has further power been devolved to Scotland in the 2012 Act that is already on the books?

. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012. This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution. These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016. Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.

http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

It may not be enough for you, but to assert, as some Nats do, that a "no" will lead to a roll-back of devolution - when more is already on the statute books is to use Malcolm's favourite charge - a "lie".

Stuart_Dickson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting analysis on the forces at work in Spain and Catalonia:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/23/jitters-mount-over-prospect-of-catalonian-independence.html

- "... Spain’s current government is ideologically opposed to granting any more freedom to Catalonia than it currently enjoys. Indeed, quite the contrary. In its drive to further centralise and consolidate power in Madrid, it is going in the exact opposite direction, to the increasing fury of not only Catalans but regional politicians throughout the country."

That is Spanish (and British) nationalism in a nutshell: they cut off their noses to spite their faces.

Spanish nationalism was born out of Francoism and taps into a particularly Spanish form of stubborness which sees compromise as unGodly. You see the same kind of thing among a lot of Catalan nationalists, ironically enough. British nationalism has always struck me as being rather more pragmatic - hence the referendum.

The reason why Devomax could not have been on the ballot in September is that it would involve a decision of everyone in the UK, not just the Scots, whereas independence Yes or No is a Scottish only issue.

Thanks Johann!

Labour plan ‘boosts Yes vote’

Labour's plans to let Holyrood raise taxes for higher earners if Scots vote against independence would drive entrepreneurs away and could persuade supporters of the Union to vote Yes, according to business leaders.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1391336.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_03_2

Southam, when is Ed MIliband going to sort out his worse-than-useless North British branch operation?



I have no idea. It does strike me as strange, though, that Scottish Labour is not an independent party that is essentially in alliance with Labour in England. But I know little of how Labour functions. It's not a huge interest of mine.

Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

FPT:

4:45AM edited 4:50AM
Details of the SIndy poll:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

And John Curtice' take on it:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....

As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....

CarlottaVance said:

Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

FPT:

4:45AM edited 4:50AM
Details of the SIndy poll:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

And John Curtice' take on it:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....

As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....



It's down to the Scots. If they want independence that's what they'll vote for. It looks like we're getting to the point where enough Scottish voters want to separate. If something is coming to an end, it's best to have a clean break. It'll be sad to see the UK go - and, no doubt, traumatic for unionist Scots - but we'll all get over it soon enough, particularly as it will give us the chance to start again from a constitutional perspective.

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Since Mr Dickson has taken to posting stories I posted on the previous thread:

FPT:

4:45AM edited 4:50AM
Details of the SIndy poll:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-yes-shift-1-3350563

And John Curtice' take on it:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-no-s-doom-and-gloom-misses-target-1-3350579

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/03/march-icm-poll-uncovers-worrying-underlying-trends-for-no/

Indeed, more generally the poll confirms the degree to which Labour support is potentially the weak link in the unionist camp; once the Don’t Knows are excluded no less than 34% of those who backed Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes.

Somehow I doubt Malcolm will be denouncing Curtice as a Unionist stooge and lickspittle today.....

As I observed yesterday (and have many times in the past), it really is all down to Labour in Scotland. God help us.....

It's down to the Scots. If they want independence that's what they'll vote for. It looks like we're getting to the point where enough Scottish voters want to separate. If something is coming to an end, it's best to have a clean break.
Agreed - which is why Salmond's horse feathers about "social unions" and "currency unions" is worrying - if Scotland wakes up to "Yes" on the 19th, it will be a very different "Yes" from the one the SNP have sold them.

Stuart_Dickson said:

- "Quite a few of the 2004 class of PBers are still with us – Sean Fear, Innocent Abroad, Nick Palmer, JackW (whoever he is) to name but a few. "

Well, I started posting way back in the first few months. I'm pretty sure I was posting long before Jack W appeared. PB and UKPR were a breath of fresh air in the political blogging world, which was really starting to take off at that point.

PB is I'm afraid a shadow of its former self. Most of the serious punters, who were the heart and soul of the site, have abandoned it long ago. They have been replaced by party staffers who are quite obviously churning out re-drafted press material, and who have access to the party rebuttal databases.

Add in some of the absolutely horrific moderating decisions over the years, and the culture of bullying which has been positively encouraged, and PB is more an agent of harm than good.

I just cannot see it lasting another 10 years, so enjoy it while it lasts.

More posters like Andrea, Edmund in Tokyo and J**** K**** please, and fewer like Mark Senior, Fitalass and Jack W.

Let Mike enjoy his day without making snarky comments, okay?

Congratulations Mike - I'm a relative newbie - first turned up (I think) in about 2009. Took me 6 months to pluck up the courage to post the first time...

Congratulations and many thanks, Mike.

The outstanding success of the Site owes much to your tolerance and light control of an occasionally rowdy bunch of which I am pleased to count myself a member.

Well done, and here's to the next ten years.

Congrats on your 10 year anniversary , Mike , means I have been posting on here for nearly 9 years .

I fall into the group Optimistic Contentment. It is an interesting classification system.

Some of each are found in each party.

CD13 said:

OKC,

"There’s a quiz on the BBC site ” What political tribe are you”http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26689333: "

I got 'calm persistence' - common in all parties but it explains why I don't trust any.

Well done OGH and Robert for your calm persistence.

Monksfield [8.11am] the left has always been outnumbered on the site

I think this is true beyond this site. People on the right tend to think that their opinion matters more, have a higher opinion of themselves & so on.

Stuart_Dickson said:

- "Quite a few of the 2004 class of PBers are still with us – Sean Fear, Innocent Abroad, Nick Palmer, JackW (whoever he is) to name but a few. "

Well, I started posting way back in the first few months. I'm pretty sure I was posting long before Jack W appeared. PB and UKPR were a breath of fresh air in the political blogging world, which was really starting to take off at that point.

PB is I'm afraid a shadow of its former self. Most of the serious punters, who were the heart and soul of the site, have abandoned it long ago. They have been replaced by party staffers who are quite obviously churning out re-drafted press material, and who have access to the party rebuttal databases.

Add in some of the absolutely horrific moderating decisions over the years, and the culture of bullying which has been positively encouraged, and PB is more an agent of harm than good.

I just cannot see it lasting another 10 years, so enjoy it while it lasts.

More posters like Andrea, Edmund in Tokyo and J**** K**** please, and fewer like Mark Senior, Fitalass and Jack W.

You petty little man .

Charles said:

re: the BBC/Populus test

I got Optimistic Contentment:

Confident & comfortable, they are more highly educated, of a higher social grade & have higher incomes than the other groups. They are patient, prudent & tolerant but also think Britain is a soft touch. They believe people can get on if they work hard & that too much is expected from government

Sounds reasonably accurate!

ditto but I'm sure that will surprise you :-)

Alanbrooke said:

Charles said:

re: the BBC/Populus test

I got Optimistic Contentment:

Confident & comfortable, they are more highly educated, of a higher social grade & have higher incomes than the other groups. They are patient, prudent & tolerant but also think Britain is a soft touch. They believe people can get on if they work hard & that too much is expected from government

Sounds reasonably accurate!

ditto but I'm sure that will surprise you :-)

Not really. I suspect you are less grumpy in real life than you pretend to me on here...

I am a Cosmopolitan Critic. That sounds about right; though I am not young, I am not single, I don't work in the public sector and I do not live in a big urban centre!

MarkSenior said:

Congrats on your 10 year anniversary , Mike , means I have been posting on here for nearly 9 years .

You'll have noted your goodself, @fitalass and I have made the @Stuart_Dickson expulsion list.

It has the makings of a "Free The PB Three" campaign.

Titters ....

Indeed, Mr. L. Y0kel's often been ahead of the plodding mainstream media when it comes to matters from that part of the world.

Many Happy returns to PB - The only place where you will find Hodges, Loons, Cyber Nats, Fruitcakes, Squirrels, Scottish Tory Surgers and Yellow Boxes all in one place. Quite unique.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am a Cosmopolitan Critic. That sounds about right; though I am not young, I am not single, I don't work in the public sector and I do not live in a big urban centre!

Compared to my village your in NYC :-)

Compared to Southam Leamington is NYC, London and Beijing all rolled into one.

As a middle aged Cosmopolitan Critic I feel I should dump the fleece and slippers, grow my hair a bit longer and start going clubbing again. But I just can't be arsed.

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Congrats on your 10 year anniversary , Mike , means I have been posting on here for nearly 9 years .

You'll have noted your goodself, @fitalass and I have made the @Stuart_Dickson expulsion list.

It has the makings of a "Free The PB Three" campaign.

Titters ....

Jack set aside the ill-temper of the Neep ( Scottish Swede ) the chap is a little fraught what with the long and dreary campaign his colleagues have unleashed. It simply shows his Scotland is a petty minded midden with no goodwill for those around it. Like so many cybernatties he won't want to live there himself.

Well done Mike and Robert and mod team!

As one of the longest-standing contributors, I think it remains an excellent site - one of the fastest ways to pick up political trends, one of the few where people with very different views talk on a mostly amicable basis, and sometimes a good site to pick up tips too, the original intention.

People have always grumbled that it isn't something else. It's not a place where almost anything goes in the way of abuse and hysteria, like Guido. It's not a place where discussion is brief and sober, like UK Polling Report. It's not a place where partisans of a different view to yours are prevented from persistently droning on. It is what it is, and hasn't really changed that much.

My main advice for enjoying it is to pick up the hard news, eye the opinions in a detached way, enjoy the obscure discussions off topic, ignore the posters commenting on other posters, and try not to do it yourself. And if someone's unpleasant about you, just reply politely: most people will side with the more civilised side almost regardless of the issue.

As for Mike's future plans, it's up to him, obviously, but I imagine that deals are available allowing editorial freedom. If Murdoch can do it with the Times, so can others. As an old critic of Ashcroft, for instance, I'd trust him to own the site and let Mike and team be as objective and forensic as he wants to be. Equally, if Mike is happy, it doesn't need fixing and he should just relax and have fun.

foxinsoxuk said:

As a matter of interest is there any party staffers just spouting the party line, as Stuart claims?

My impression is that those on here who have party positions are all more intelligent and nuanced than that, and all deviate at times from official positions.

I do find the prospect of six more months of Scotnat posting a little depressing, little rays of sunshine that they are.

The only group that never criticise their own party are the Scot Nats/SNP.

UKIP and the Lib Dems are usually pretty forgiving of their own parties, Labour, and in particular Con, less so....

NickPalmer [8.48am] Do you really believe that the Times has editorial freedom from Murdoch? I know there was a bit of paper, but surely it was no more than a fig-leaf?

antifrank said:

I tallied Optimistic Contentment. Neither of those are words I would use to describe myself.

I'm sure many of us who have read your posts over the years can think of two words to describe you. Shall we open a thread on it ? ;-)

Be honest you wanted to be a Cosmopolitan but Norfolk shone through !

F1: just read many comments on Joe Saward's blog about the fuel flow business:
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/the-red-bull-appeal/#comments

Interesting that there seems to be very little sympathy for Red Bull (although more for Ricciardo), and a general feeling the team's arrogant, needs taking down a peg or two, and is trying to play politics to get the rules changes to their advantage (see Pirelli last year, although that also had some safety considerations).

Many congratulations - and more importantly thanks - Mike. We have had our disagreements and arguments over the years but the site itself is a huge achievement and that is down primarily to your light touch moderation and the hard work of Robert and all the other moderators.

There will always be disagreements about how things are run but considering the site attracts political activists and commentators who must be amongst the most outspoken and opinionated people on planet earth then I think it is remarkable it has kept going essentially unchanged in its basic format and atmosphere for a decade.

Certainly looking forward to many more years of disagreeing with people from the comfort of my own armchair :-)

Edit... I think I joined in 2005 or 2006.

10 is a good age for a birthday, I hope that there are many more.

I have given up on mine since I found out that the candles cost more than the cake.

Alanbrooke said:

antifrank said:

I tallied Optimistic Contentment. Neither of those are words I would use to describe myself.

I'm sure many of us who have read your posts over the years can think of two words to describe you. Shall we open a thread on it ? ;-)

Be honest you wanted to be a Cosmopolitan but Norfolk shone through !

Only two words, Field Marshal? I'm disappointed.

Innocent_Abroad said:

NickPalmer [8.48am] Do you really believe that the Times has editorial freedom from Murdoch? I know there was a bit of paper, but surely it was no more than a fig-leaf?

Broadly yes. Perhaps I'm too trusting! But it's in his interest (commercial and reputational) not to mess around with it, and he'd need to be really obsessive about British politics to override that. The current editor is clearly more pro-Tory and Murdoch might have had a hand in deciding that, but I'd be surprised to hear he interferes in content.

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: just read many comments on Joe Saward's blog about the fuel flow business:
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/the-red-bull-appeal/#comments

Interesting that there seems to be very little sympathy for Red Bull (although more for Ricciardo), and a general feeling the team's arrogant, needs taking down a peg or two, and is trying to play politics to get the rules changes to their advantage (see Pirelli last year, although that also had some safety considerations).

It sounds as though they're bang to rights. In a race, you don't ignore directions given to you by the authorities. If anything, Ricciardo should have been warned with a half-black flag, and if that was still ignored, a black flag a few laps later.

As well as PB, it's my birthday today, and I'm having to set up a new laptop Mrs J bought me for my personal work. It now means that we now have eight PCs / laptops between the two of us, as well as a sundry of tablets, PICs and other devices.

It's my first time setting up a Win 8.1 machine, and so far I quite like it. It's nowhere near as intrusive as Apple's setup process for the iPad I got Mrs J for Christmas. (end gratuitous Apple fan baiting).

It would have been more fun if Populus had given those groups more candid names like Insufferably Smug, Wet Lettuce, Batshit Mental and so on.