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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By a small margin punters think the next general election will happen before Brexit
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Comments
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First - like a winnar0
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You'd get better odds betting on an October election surely?
Silly market - silly prices0 -
Mr. Briskin, now that we know the consequences of you posting first, the time has come for a People's Thread.0
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https://youtu.be/4pdBg88UOAkMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, now that we know the consequences of you posting first, the time has come for a People's Thread.
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Re Italy, if there is no operating government there how would the EU27 get unanimous agreement for a further extension in the somewhat unlikely event that we asked for it to have an election?0
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There'd be no-one to veto it.DavidL said:Re Italy, if there is no operating government there how would the EU27 get unanimous agreement for a further extension in the somewhat unlikely event that we asked for it to have an election?
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Presumably there’s a government until there’s another government, same as happens in the U.K.?DavidL said:Re Italy, if there is no operating government there how would the EU27 get unanimous agreement for a further extension in the somewhat unlikely event that we asked for it to have an election?
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"The LAB threats to deselect certain MPs by imposing mandatory re-selection is hardly going to help things."
I don't follow Mike's train of thought here. Sitting Labour MPs facing deselection will surely want a snap general election, because in those circumstances there won't be time for a lengthy process to deselect them. Vote to bring down Johnson's government, vote for an alternative Corbyn led government (safe in the knowledge that MPs of other parties won't) and then vote against any alternative government not led by Corbyn.
If you reckon that you have a better prospect of holding your seat than of seeing off a deselection process, that's the most assured route to another 5 years on the back benches.0 -
I like this market - pays out before year end (November 1st to be precise) - so tiny tim gets his xmas presents. I've gone large.0
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Especially as in a snap election the power to select candidates sits with the NECWulfrun_Phil said:"The LAB threats to deselect certain MPs by imposing mandatory re-selection is hardly going to help things."
I don't follow Mike's train of thought here. Sitting Labour MPs facing deselection will surely want a snap general election, because in those circumstances there won't be time for a lengthy process to deselect them. Vote to bring down Johnson's government, vote for an alternative Corbyn led government (safe in the knowledge that MPs of other parties won't) and then vote against any alternative government not led by Corbyn.
If you reckon that you have a better prospect of holding your seat than of seeing off a deselection process, that's the most assured route to another 5 years on the back benches.0 -
That's what I am not sure about. Do they need to veto or do they need to positively vote for the extension? My guess would be the latter. @Sandpit:williamglenn said:
There'd be no-one to veto it.DavidL said:Re Italy, if there is no operating government there how would the EU27 get unanimous agreement for a further extension in the somewhat unlikely event that we asked for it to have an election?
Presumably there’s a government until there’s another government, same as happens in the U.K.?
Conte says this government stops here. Given there are various possibilities arising from new coalitions inside the Parliament I am not sure that there will be a continuing government.
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Are you triggered, @Philip_Thompson?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1163763558871703552?s=210 -
I'm confident the Italian President has the authority to appoint a caretaker government, and such a government is unlikely to do anything contentious like vetoing an Article 50 extension request.DavidL said:
Conte says this government stops here. Given there are various possibilities arising from new coalitions inside the Parliament I am not sure that there will be a continuing government.0 -
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:0 -
The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
So what about betting on brexit before general election at 1.91
And reducing risk by laying brexit date before Jul-Dec 19 at 1.66
If an election happens before brexit, but not called til recess is over, and no preparation during campaign, then new parliament might be more opposed to brexit and even if not some delay for preparations is likely. Can lose both bets but seems unlikely and could win both.0 -
On topic - nobody has a clue.0
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The EU doesn't get much credit but it should be praised for its ability to strangle Mediterranean economies and inspire far right parties.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
Isn’t that the point of the settled status scheme, moving them into indefinite leave to remain status?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
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And its willingness to leave them with the consequences of mass migration across the Mediterranean.Fenster said:
The EU doesn't get much credit but it should be praised for its ability to strangle Mediterranean economies and inspire far right parties.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
On one view its remarkable that we are the ones who are leaving...0 -
Salvini has blamed it all on Europe and a large chunk of Italians agree. He is offering to take on Brussels while the opposiition is offering more Europe.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
Will Philip Thompson explain why Mark Durkan is wrong?
https://twitter.com/markdurkan/status/11638309989850357760 -
The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
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The usual answer is because he's Mark Durkanwilliamglenn said:Will Philip Thompson explain why Mark Durkan is wrong?
https://twitter.com/markdurkan/status/11638309989850357760 -
Good one.Alanbrooke said:
The usual answer is because he's Mark Durkanwilliamglenn said:Will Philip Thompson explain why Mark Durkan is wrong?
https://twitter.com/markdurkan/status/11638309989850357760 -
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.1 -
Always best to continue an argument onto the next thread I find.Anabobazina said:The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*0 -
Mr. Glenn, Lord Trimble is of a different view.0
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We didn't surrender to the IRA. What we put to the IRA had been on the table since the mid-1970s, "Sunningdale for Slow Learners". It took a hell of a lot for them to move to that position and that is all now at risk.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Always best to continue an argument onto the next thread I find.Anabobazina said:The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*0 -
Tying Italy to the header, doesn't Boris head a governing party looking for an election with a record debt to GDP ratio?DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
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Mr. Walker, it might also shift the central point of EU politics and economics further to the left.0
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With Adams swanning about where he pleases it certainly felt like a surrender to me.DougSeal said:
We didn't surrender to the IRA. What we put to the IRA had been on the table since the mid-1970s, "Sunningdale for Slow Learners". It took a hell of a lot for them to move to that position and that is all now at risk.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Always best to continue an argument onto the next thread I find.Anabobazina said:The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*0 -
How was the Belfast Agreement legislated into UK law? The Irish changed their constitution, what did the UK do?0
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I’m not talking about economic left/right, although one presumes that without the U.K. the needle in Europe tips toward the left.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, it might also shift the central point of EU politics and economics further to the left.
I’m talking about liberalism/authoritarianism.0 -
Many in the Republican community would say the same about Paisley and any number of British soldiers.JBriskinindyref2 said:
With Adams swanning about where he pleases it certainly felt like a surrender to me.DougSeal said:
We didn't surrender to the IRA. What we put to the IRA had been on the table since the mid-1970s, "Sunningdale for Slow Learners". It took a hell of a lot for them to move to that position and that is all now at risk.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Always best to continue an argument onto the next thread I find.Anabobazina said:The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*0 -
It doesn’t. Brexit is a betrayal of British tradition, not its apotheosis.williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
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whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.0 -
So??? I'm all up for starting it up again. It's the diehard remainers that are being all namby-pambyDougSeal said:
Many in the Republican community would say the same about Paisley and any number of British soldiers.JBriskinindyref2 said:
With Adams swanning about where he pleases it certainly felt like a surrender to me.DougSeal said:
We didn't surrender to the IRA. What we put to the IRA had been on the table since the mid-1970s, "Sunningdale for Slow Learners". It took a hell of a lot for them to move to that position and that is all now at risk.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Always best to continue an argument onto the next thread I find.Anabobazina said:The sheer scale of irresponsible ignorance on this site re: the Irish border and the
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*0 -
We repealed the Government of Ireland Act 1920 and replaced it with the Northern Ireland Act 1998.Verulamius said:How was the Belfast Agreement legislated into UK law? The Irish changed their constitution, what did the UK do?
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https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/contentsVerulamius said:How was the Belfast Agreement legislated into UK law? The Irish changed their constitution, what did the UK do?
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Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.0 -
The problem is Germany running a surplus and even this week, when Berlin is talking about opening the Merkel cheque book, most spending will be on local infrastructure (roads etc) to keep the money inside Germany.Alanbrooke said:
Salvini has blamed it all on Europe and a large chunk of Italians agree. He is offering to take on Brussels while the opposiition is offering more Europe.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
Perhaps your view of Britain was rose-tinted. If you were right, this wouldn't be happening.Gardenwalker said:
It doesn’t. Brexit is a betrayal of British tradition, not its apotheosis.williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
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Mr. Walker, you may be better informed on this than me, but the UK's actions on free speech and regulation doesn't scream liberal to me. It screams meddling puritanism laced with technological illiteracy.0
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Its almost as if shallow Populism isn't the answer...DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
It;s no guarantee, but most of Europe will be tottering about on its Zimmerframes by 2050 and the population will drop off noticeably by 2100 that's not exactly a recipe for power projection,Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.0 -
Shale gas (fracking for the use of) estimates might be wildly wrong.
New research suggests that instead of 50 years' worth of gas, it might be just five.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-493956580 -
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:0 -
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?0 -
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.0 -
Only one gets a wiki page though-Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism
Edit:my bad-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonderweg0 -
The economic performance of Italy since 2000 has been desperate.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
Our growth rate over that period, 2% p.a., is nothing remarkable. Italy's has been 0.5% p.a.0 -
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.0 -
Up to a point, Lord Copper. But Indonesia is in the G20 and GDP ranks at 16 vs Israel at 34. Its also the fourth most populous country on the planet and a secular democracy which has more Muslims than Saudi, Turkey and Egypt combined....Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.0 -
All the surveys on attitudes to immigrants invariably have the UK as generally somewhat more tolerant than our neighbours.williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
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It is perfectly logical to state that the UK makes/made an exceptional contribution to the stability of Europe, and the wider world. 52% of people who voted in 2016 have chosen to withdraw us from that role and make us a laughing stock instead.Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.0 -
It'll be like West Germany taking on East Germany, as Brexit showed voters don't always rank economic success over political desires.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?0 -
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.0 -
How many Brexiteers will be alive in 2025, let alone 2100?Alanbrooke said:
It;s no guarantee, but most of Europe will be tottering about on its Zimmerframes by 2050 and the population will drop off noticeably by 2100 that's not exactly a recipe for power projection,Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.0 -
Time for some Ugandan discussions?Alanbrooke said:
It;s no guarantee, but most of Europe will be tottering about on its Zimmerframes by 2050 and the population will drop off noticeably by 2100 that's not exactly a recipe for power projection,Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.0 -
The stupid ones are those who advocate a course involving a big economic hit to the UK in order to pursue the political goal of separation from the EU but assume that the Irish will not be willing to do the same in order to achieve the political goal of a united Ireland.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?
0 -
Maybe you do, though you are the fool if that is the case. You might want to look at the Irish education system which is somewhat superior in almost every way to ours.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?0 -
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente1 -
It's a fact that the UK is currently contributing to instability in Europe and the wider world. This is who we are.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is perfectly logical to state that the UK makes/made an exceptional contribution to the stability of Europe, and the wider world. 52% of people who voted in 2016 have chosen to withdraw us from that role and make us a laughing stock instead.Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.0 -
No, our debt/GDP ratio has been falling for a couple of years now.DecrepitJohnL said:
Tying Italy to the header, doesn't Boris head a governing party looking for an election with a record debt to GDP ratio?DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
The league of empire loyalists speaks.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is perfectly logical to state that the UK makes/made an exceptional contribution to the stability of Europe, and the wider world. 52% of people who voted in 2016 have chosen to withdraw us from that role and make us a laughing stock instead.Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
800 million Nigerians will be laughing at you by 21000 -
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
East West is truggling atm.TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll be like West Germany taking on East Germany, as Brexit showed voters don't always rank economic success over political desires.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?
The AfD are looking like topping the poll in the Landeswahl in Saxony and Brandenburg. The issue inst money, both places have been showered with cash. its about propsects and self respect.0 -
One year and by the square root of not very many, so unless ONS has changed its mind in this week's revisions, we are more or less at a recent peak and a damn sight higher than was inherited from Labour. Austerity does not work (taking us neatly back to Italy and the Eurozone).DavidL said:
No, our debt/GDP ratio has been falling for a couple of years now.DecrepitJohnL said:
Tying Italy to the header, doesn't Boris head a governing party looking for an election with a record debt to GDP ratio?DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
0 -
I was brought up in the Irish education system and having read your post, totally agree your education is not what it could be,Nigel_Foremain said:
Maybe you do, though you are the fool if that is the case. You might want to look at the Irish education system which is somewhat superior in almost every way to ours.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting to hear whos going to pay for it.anothernick said:
But a hard Bexit and a hard border will lead in short order to a united Ireland. Which is what the Irish Republic has always wanted.RobD said:
And their new power has got them a hard border. Nicely done.anothernick said:
Precisely so. The English have bullied the Irish for centuries but thanks to Irish membership of the EU the boot is now on the other foot. And, to mix metaphors, the English don't like it up em.Gallowgate said:
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?
have you thought of night classes ?1 -
0
-
lolwilliamglenn said:
It's a fact that the UK is currently contributing to instability in Europe and the wider world. This is who we are.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is perfectly logical to state that the UK makes/made an exceptional contribution to the stability of Europe, and the wider world. 52% of people who voted in 2016 have chosen to withdraw us from that role and make us a laughing stock instead.Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
who's this "we" supernat ?0 -
The truth is that neither more Europe, nor less Europe will solve Italy's malaise.Alanbrooke said:
Salvini has blamed it all on Europe and a large chunk of Italians agree. He is offering to take on Brussels while the opposiition is offering more Europe.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
In a previous job we had an Italian subsidiary, which accepted cash for a contract from a company in a country barred by sanctions. (They thus broke two laws - regarding sanctions and cash payments over a certain size.) This was then used to pay other suppliers in cash. The head of the unit called me to tell me about this, not because he wanted to come clean, or anything like that, but to make sure I knew about it so it could be included in his sales numbers for his bonus.
I have another anecdote about trying to collect an unpaid debt from a large and rich corporate who, it turned out, relied on the Italian courts sometimes taking decades to enforce debts - especially when the debtor company was owned by someone with significant influence. (And this wasn't just a negotiating tactic. They simply wouldn't pay.)
Without deep structural reform of labour markets, the legal system, and a new attitude towards corruption at all levels, Italy's economy will struggle. Combine that with appalling demographics, and a terrible debt burden, and it's hard to see Italy performing well.
Last point: Italy would do better free of the Euro. But it would also see sky high interest rates outside the Euro to compensate for inflation and depreciating currency. The government - and people - are caught between the rocks and the ocean.
And, of course, their politicians serve them ill. Blaming external forces is easier than admitting that Italy's problems are mostly of their own making. They could have chosen reform, as Spain and Portugal did, but that would have been painful. Instead they chose to bumble along, getting into ever worse debt, and allowing the painful stagnation to continue.1 -
really. perhaps youd like to go on the streets of Barnsley or Bautzen and explain that.williamglenn said:
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
0
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0
-
That's really impressive but the airline then sacked him and replaced him with a new Chinese management team.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Except large numbers of over 40s are doing precisely that. They want No Deal and they don't care what the costs are economically or to the peace of Ireland.CarlottaVance said:0 -
You think the average person from Barnsley feels much cultural affinity with your fellow Orangemen?Alanbrooke said:
really. perhaps youd like to go on the streets of Barnsley or Bautzen and explain that.williamglenn said:
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
The only thing which might give italy a chance is leaving the Euro, then it can go back to competitive devaluations. But I agree it needs serious structural reform and lets pretend the demographics can get better.rcs1000 said:
The truth is that neither more Europe, nor less Europe will solve Italy's malaise.Alanbrooke said:
Salvini has blamed it all on Europe and a large chunk of Italians agree. He is offering to take on Brussels while the opposiition is offering more Europe.DavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
In a previous job we had an Italian subsidiary, which accepted cash for a contract from a company in a country barred by sanctions. (They thus broke two laws - regarding sanctions and cash payments over a certain size.) This was then used to pay other suppliers in cash. The head of the unit called me to tell me about this, not because he wanted to come clean, or anything like that, but to make sure I knew about it so it could be included in his sales numbers for his bonus.
I have another anecdote about trying to collect an unpaid debt from a large and rich corporate who, it turned out, relied on the Italian courts sometimes taking decades to enforce debts - especially when the debtor company was owned by someone with significant influence. (And this wasn't just a negotiating tactic. They simply wouldn't pay.)
Without deep structural reform of labour markets, the legal system, and a new attitude towards corruption at all levels, Italy's economy will struggle. Combine that with appalling demographics, and a terrible debt burden, and it's hard to see Italy performing well.
Last point: Italy would do better free of the Euro. But it would also see sky high interest rates outside the Euro to compensate for inflation and depreciating currency. The government - and people - are caught between the rocks and the ocean.
And, of course, their politicians serve them ill. Blaming external forces is easier than admitting that Italy's problems are mostly of their own making. They could have chosen reform, as Spain and Portugal did, but that would have been painful. Instead they chose to bumble along, getting into ever worse debt, and allowing the painful stagnation to continue.0 -
Please can we not have yet more of this statement that 'current Scottish polling has the Tory position north of the border looking dire' as it is not correct, the latest Yougov poll has the Tories on 23% in Scotland in a clear second place and Opinium and Survation also have the Tories on 20%+. Given the Tories only got 15% in Scotland as recently as 2015 when they won a majority of UK seats and would hold around half their Scottish seats on current polling I would suggest that is far from dire for team Davidson.
Scottish Labour however is polling under 20% on every poll (SLab got 24% even in 2015 and 27% in 2017) and in the odd poll has even fallen behind the Scottish LDs and would lose every Labour seat in Scotland bar Edinburgh South on current polls.
So whiile it would be correct to say the situation is dire for Scottish Labour it is far from dire for the Scottish Tories1 -
That’s a circular argument.williamglenn said:
Perhaps your view of Britain was rose-tinted. If you were right, this wouldn't be happening.Gardenwalker said:
It doesn’t. Brexit is a betrayal of British tradition, not its apotheosis.williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
My point is simply that, to the extent that the U.K. has helped maintain a liberal order in Europe (and to a much lesser degree globally), our ability to do so is significantly weakened by leaving the EU.
If you don’t (any many don’t) believe the U.K. influence as any particular merit to it, then you won’t much care. Weirdly, many Brexiters seem to fall into this category, despite covering themselves with the flag (a red, white and blue Brexit indeed).0 -
Looks like it could end up a choice between Clarke and Boris as PM and whether the LDs hold the balance of power and back Clarke or it is a Tory majority with Boris and Corbyn out of it on those numbersrottenborough said:Do Labour really want a GE?
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/11638282874891509780 -
https://sluggerotoole.com/2015/07/23/people-are-not-clubbable-any-more-a-south-yorkshire-orangeman-speaks/williamglenn said:
You think the average person from Barnsley feels much cultural affinity with your fellow Orangemen?Alanbrooke said:
really. perhaps youd like to go on the streets of Barnsley or Bautzen and explain that.williamglenn said:
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
Even by 2100 I expect the UK (or even just England), France and Germany to be still in the G20 even if Nigeria and Uganda join them, the UK and French populations are also still growing even if less fast than Africa, it is the likes of Italy, Germany and Japan and Russia seeing population declineAlanbrooke said:
It;s no guarantee, but most of Europe will be tottering about on its Zimmerframes by 2050 and the population will drop off noticeably by 2100 that's not exactly a recipe for power projection,Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.0 -
Those are sub samples you are quoting right?HYUFD said:Please can we not have yet more of this statement that 'current Scottish polling has the Tory position north of the border looking dire' as it is not correct, the latest Yougov poll has the Tories on 23% in Scotland in a clear second place and Opinium and Survation also have the Tories on 20%+. Given the Tories only got 15% in Scotland as recently as 2015 when they won a majority of UK seats and would hold around half their Scottish seats on current polling I would suggest that is far from dire for team Davidson.
Scottish Labour however is polling under 20% on every poll (SLab got 24% even in 2015 and 27% in 2017) and in the odd poll has even fallen behind the Scottish LDs and would lose every Labour seat in Scotland bar Edinburgh South on current polls.
So whiile it would be correct to say the situation is dire for Scottish Labour it is far from dire for the Scottish Tories0 -
Tim Farron is conveniently forgetting that most Tories voted for TMs deal, which would have respected the GFA, and most Lib Dems did not, which helped greatly increase the chance of No Deal.rottenborough said:
Except large numbers of over 40s are doing precisely that. They want No Deal and they don't care what the costs are economically or to the peace of Ireland.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Five Star will likely collapse from first to third and Lega rise from third to first with PD holding second if Conte's resignation leads to an autumn general election with Salvini PM supported by Berlusconi with Forza Italia currently in oppositionDavidL said:The economic performance of Italy over the last 18 months is truly desperate: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.0 -
There are members of the EU who choose not to be in NATO. Perhaps it is they, not the UK, who are not quite making the necessary contribution to the stability of Europe.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is perfectly logical to state that the UK makes/made an exceptional contribution to the stability of Europe, and the wider world. 52% of people who voted in 2016 have chosen to withdraw us from that role and make us a laughing stock instead.Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.0 -
What has happened to a nailed on Boris majority you have predicted for so long, even PM FarageHYUFD said:
Looks like it could end up a choice between Clarke and Boris as PM and whether the LDs hold the balance of power and back Clarke or it is a Tory majority with Boris and Corbyn out of it on those numbersrottenborough said:Do Labour really want a GE?
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/11638282874891509780 -
who can say ? But as @rcs1000 rightly points out demographics will have a huge impact. Older people consume less so european GDP will slack off.HYUFD said:
Even by 2100 I expect the UK (or even just England), France and Germany to be still in the G20 even if Nigeria and Uganda join them, the UK and French populations are also still growing even if less fast than Africa, it is the likes of Italy, Germany and Japan and Russia seeing population declineAlanbrooke said:
It;s no guarantee, but most of Europe will be tottering about on its Zimmerframes by 2050 and the population will drop off noticeably by 2100 that's not exactly a recipe for power projection,Gardenwalker said:
Population is not power, or Indonesia would be a heavyweight and Israel an irrelevance.Alanbrooke said:
whats the problem ?Gardenwalker said:
I think “more powerful than us” is overstating things, but it’s probably true within the rather crucial context we are discussing.Gallowgate said:
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.0 -
You see. You'll find isolated pockets of niche European cultures in the most unlikely places.Alanbrooke said:
https://sluggerotoole.com/2015/07/23/people-are-not-clubbable-any-more-a-south-yorkshire-orangeman-speaks/williamglenn said:
You think the average person from Barnsley feels much cultural affinity with your fellow Orangemen?Alanbrooke said:
really. perhaps youd like to go on the streets of Barnsley or Bautzen and explain that.williamglenn said:
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
thats the rich variety we all love. No need to standarise it, The rise of Europe was mostly due to competiton between its states and cities.williamglenn said:
You see. You'll find isolated pockets of niche European cultures in the most unlikely places.Alanbrooke said:
https://sluggerotoole.com/2015/07/23/people-are-not-clubbable-any-more-a-south-yorkshire-orangeman-speaks/williamglenn said:
You think the average person from Barnsley feels much cultural affinity with your fellow Orangemen?Alanbrooke said:
really. perhaps youd like to go on the streets of Barnsley or Bautzen and explain that.williamglenn said:
European culture already is. It's you that lacks the imagination to conceive of it as anything other than homogenisation.Alanbrooke said:
why would I ? Ive grown up in a culture 300 years on the roll and speak the same language as my compatriots. If there is to be such a thing as a european culture t it needs time to develop and to mature at its own pace, Forcing it just causes trouble.williamglenn said:
A federal Europe will not threaten the variety of Europe. Do you feel like a standardised British zek because you're a UK citizen?Alanbrooke said:
We must all be standardised European zeks.Sean_F said:
What's wrong with British exceptionalism?williamglenn said:
This attitude betrays a sense of British exceptionalism. How does the idea that Britain is a bulwark of liberalism on the European continent stack up against the experience of the last three years?Gardenwalker said:Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
All countries are exceptional.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente0 -
Shocking
Average solicitor earns almost £10,000 less than a train driver
https://www.legalcheek.com/2019/08/average-solicitor-earns-almost-10000-less-than-a-train-driver/1
