politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

Family events and emergencies don’t exist in Leaver World.

I agree some exceptions are needed for emergency situations. Events, less so.

You’d tell them to miss their daughter’s wedding, say? Your heartlessness knows no limit.

How long in advance are weddings planned, and how long has the process for getting indefinite leave to remain been set up?

How long in advance are other types of family event planned? A funeral, say?

Those would be categorised under emergencies, and there should be a policy in place to ensure people can leave/re-enter even though their case is still being processed in such scenarios.

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

To return home permenantly will, I suspect, be the main reason. Choosing between family and job is always a tough one.

Most come here just for a couple of years. Returning early or going to work in one of the other EU27 countries with fewer hassles will be the choice.

Though, of course, forcing the foreigners home is a feature not a bug of Brexit.

Weren't we talking about the situation where someone would be re-entering on a tourist visa. Why would they do that if they are returning home permanently?

They may choose returning home rather than the hassle. Medicine and Nursing are highly internationally mobile professions.

OK, but we seem to have drifted from the original point which was about EU residents leaving/re-entering.

This *is* an interesting market.

But I'm not sure there is easy money to be made here. Let's just imagine that No Deal turns out very poorly (and this is "imagine the scenario", not my forecast). In which case, say, Sterling does fall 12-15%, dropping below parity to the Euro, and going to around $1.10 against the Dollar.

Well, the inflationary effect will be pretty minor in the near term, I'd reckon no more than 0.3-0.5%. (Which is because the costs of retailers are Sterling denominated, and don't change. And the purchase of services is largely unaffected.) Given the government will be desperate to hold up consumer spending, the pressure on the BoE to keep rates low will be enormous, and I can't see any real likelihood that we see significant jumps. Simply, the government will say to the BoE (and probably rightly so) "sod inflation, let's avoid a recession".

Typically interest rates rise because an economy is at capacity, and this leads to inflation. Raising interest rates suppress aggregate demand by (a) lowering disposible income by raising the cost of debt, and (b) encouraging consumers to save rather than spend.

There is an exception to this. And that is the old "Balance of Payments" crisis. In the old days of Bretton Woods (which I always wanted to make a video about, but never did), you could have a situation where the cupboard was bare, and you lacked the foreign currency reserves to pay for imports. Basically, Bretton Woods prevented the long-term (and deeply dangerous) accumnulation of imbalances in the world economy, because you simply couldn't run a deficit for long.

Could we see a situation - a sort of 2008/9 squared - where the world's financial markets refused to believe that Britain (who runs a massive current account surplus, and now owes the world over a trillion dollars and Euros) would make good on its liabilities? In the old days, that could send interest rates spiralling. My money's on "no", simply because in such a situation every country would be affected. But you never know. Certainly, the late cycle fiscal policies of the Johnson government, which will make imbalances even worse, make it more likely than it would have been.

Back to the question at hand. I'd back 0.25% with a small sum, because I think the BoE (encouraged by the government) would react to No Deal Brexit with a chunk of monetary loosening.

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

Family events and emergencies don’t exist in Leaver World.

I agree some exceptions are needed for emergency situations. Events, less so.

You’d tell them to miss their daughter’s wedding, say? Your heartlessness knows no limit.

How long in advance are weddings planned, and how long has the process for getting indefinite leave to remain been set up?

How long in advance are other types of family event planned? A funeral, say?

There's no point arguing with certain people, they just are unable to put themselves in anyone else's shoes.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

To return home permenantly will, I suspect, be the main reason. Choosing between family and job is always a tough one.

Most come here just for a couple of years. Returning early or going to work in one of the other EU27 countries with fewer hassles will be the choice.

Though, of course, forcing the foreigners home is a feature not a bug of Brexit.

Weren't we talking about the situation where someone would be re-entering on a tourist visa. Why would they do that if they are returning home permanently?

They may choose returning home rather than the hassle. Medicine and Nursing are highly internationally mobile professions.

OK, but we seem to have drifted from the original point which was about EU residents leaving/re-entering.

Both Foxy and I were talking about medical staff and how they do a few weeks on and then a week or two at home. They will just go elsewhere.

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

Family events and emergencies don’t exist in Leaver World.

I agree some exceptions are needed for emergency situations. Events, less so.

You’d tell them to miss their daughter’s wedding, say? Your heartlessness knows no limit.

How long in advance are weddings planned, and how long has the process for getting indefinite leave to remain been set up?

How long in advance are funerals and christenings planned? I’m also pretty sure that many weddings are planned and held in less time than it takes to process an ILR application at the moment.

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

To return home permenantly will, I suspect, be the main reason. Choosing between family and job is always a tough one.

Most come here just for a couple of years. Returning early or going to work in one of the other EU27 countries with fewer hassles will be the choice.

Though, of course, forcing the foreigners home is a feature not a bug of Brexit.

Weren't we talking about the situation where someone would be re-entering on a tourist visa. Why would they do that if they are returning home permanently?

They may choose returning home rather than the hassle. Medicine and Nursing are highly internationally mobile professions.

OK, but we seem to have drifted from the original point which was about EU residents leaving/re-entering.

The point is that they may well return permanently to avoid the hassle and uncertainty.

rcs1000 said:

This *is* an interesting market.

But I'm not sure there is easy money to be made here. Let's just imagine that No Deal turns out very poorly (and this is "imagine the scenario", not my forecast). In which case, say, Sterling does fall 12-15%, dropping below parity to the Euro, and going to around $1.10 against the Dollar.

Well, the inflationary effect will be pretty minor in the near term, I'd reckon no more than 0.3-0.5%. (Which is because the costs of retailers are Sterling denominated, and don't change. And the purchase of services is largely unaffected.) Given the government will be desperate to hold up consumer spending, the pressure on the BoE to keep rates low will be enormous, and I can't see any real likelihood that we see significant jumps. Simply, the government will say to the BoE (and probably rightly so) "sod inflation, let's avoid a recession".

Typically interest rates rise because an economy is at capacity, and this leads to inflation. Raising interest rates suppress aggregate demand by (a) lowering disposible income by raising the cost of debt, and (b) encouraging consumers to save rather than spend.

There is an exception to this. And that is the old "Balance of Payments" crisis. In the old days of Bretton Woods (which I always wanted to make a video about, but never did), you could have a situation where the cupboard was bare, and you lacked the foreign currency reserves to pay for imports. Basically, Bretton Woods prevented the long-term (and deeply dangerous) accumnulation of imbalances in the world economy, because you simply couldn't run a deficit for long.

Could we see a situation - a sort of 2008/9 squared - where the world's financial markets refused to believe that Britain (who runs a massive current account surplus, and now owes the world over a trillion dollars and Euros) would make good on its liabilities? In the old days, that could send interest rates spiralling. My money's on "no", simply because in such a situation every country would be affected. But you never know. Certainly, the late cycle fiscal policies of the Johnson government, which will make imbalances even worse, make it more likely than it would have been.

Back to the question at hand. I'd back 0.25% with a small sum, because I think the BoE (encouraged by the government) would react to No Deal Brexit with a chunk of monetary loosening.

Surely some costs would go through the roof in that case , ie anything priced in USD like oil , etc and thus impact retailers costs big time

If Jason Roy can't even catch, he really has to be dropped.

Roy really is having a bad game isn't he

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

Family events and emergencies don’t exist in Leaver World.

I agree some exceptions are needed for emergency situations. Events, less so.

You’d tell them to miss their daughter’s wedding, say? Your heartlessness knows no limit.

How long in advance are weddings planned, and how long has the process for getting indefinite leave to remain been set up?

How long in advance are other types of family event planned? A funeral, say?

Those would be categorised under emergencies, and there should be a policy in place to ensure people can leave/re-enter even though their case is still being processed in such scenarios.

LOL, come on Rob , you really are at the kidding now.

I know there's a procedure in the US immigration system to do this. I don't see why it would be challenging to implement a similar system.

Rob , we are talking UK here, can you think of anything they have ever implemented efficiently. Think Windrush, NHS IT systems, Crossrail , Universal Credit and on and on.

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Streeter, the UK and US were at war with one another in the 19th century. The lack of war since isn't due to the EU.

The idea there's a choice only between the EU and continental warfare, or that a multi-lateral collaborative approach that doesn't involve political integration isn't an alternative, is sillier than a ferret in custard.

The French and Germans see it differently, I believe.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

I would bet my shirt that it is more likely to be the latter rather than the former.

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

I think the point is that the EU allows Germans to live freely and work in areas that were once an integral part of Germany, and to travel to and fro without restriction. The Irish see it similarly with respect to NI.

It's all one big conspiracy to you guys.

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Dadge said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

SNIP

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

I suppose that they wouldn't. Or at least they wouldn't return.

The logical course of action would be to sort out one's residency status before going on holiday.

Those 2 million applications are going to mean that the Home Office will be swamped.

And of course from 1 November they will be applying on the same basis as the non EU applicants, if PP has her way.

Will they? I thought the article was referring to people who want to come to the UK after Oct 31st?

btw won't EU nationals just be able to waltz in across the Irish border?

Yep, but proving a right to work might be difficult.

They can just say they have been here without break for 10 years. Who or what system will check?

Is that like the Windrush ones who said they had been here 50 years, paid tax , brought up families, etc but still got deported

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Dadge said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

I suppose that they wouldn't. Or at least they wouldn't return.

The logical course of action would be to sort out one's residency status before going on holiday.

Those 2 million applications are going to mean that the Home Office will be swamped.

And of course from 1 November they will be applying on the same basis as the non EU applicants, if PP has her way.

Will they? I thought the article was referring to people who want to come to the UK after Oct 31st?

btw won't EU nationals just be able to waltz in across the Irish border?

Yep, but proving a right to work might be difficult.

They can just say they have been here without break for 10 years. Who or what system will check?

Isn't that the point of the settled status scheme, so that there is a system to verify who has rights and who doesn't?

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

I think the point is that the EU allows Germans to live freely and work in areas that were once an integral part of Germany, and to travel to and fro without restriction. The Irish see it similarly with respect to NI.

Given the vast amount of ethnic cleansing that went on in the 1940s it's hard to argue that there is very much left that is German in Pomerania and Silesia.

Since the border was also open from 1971-80 again I'm not convinced this is a valid argument.

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Dadge said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

I suppose that they wouldn't. Or at least they wouldn't return.

The logical course of action would be to sort out one's residency status before going on holiday.

Those 2 million applications are going to mean that the Home Office will be swamped.

And of course from 1 November they will be applying on the same basis as the non EU applicants, if PP has her way.

Will they? I thought the article was referring to people who want to come to the UK after Oct 31st?

btw won't EU nationals just be able to waltz in across the Irish border?

Yep, but proving a right to work might be difficult.

They can just say they have been here without break for 10 years. Who or what system will check?

Isn't that the point of the settled status scheme, so that there is a system to verify who has rights and who doesn't?

The problem is processing the other 70% by 1 November, and even more importantly do it correctly.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

ILR applications take a minimum six months to process and during that time you have to surrender your passport to the Home Office. It’s not a case of being “bothered” because the system is broken and there are serious practical issues for many people in surrendering ones passport for that long. It is possible to get the passport back in an emergency but it’s not guaranteed. Even the extortionately expensive “same day” service in Croydon has a 7 or 8 week waiting list.

It’s not a case of being “bothered” it’s a case of the administrative capability of this country to cope with an extraordinarily difficult process is simply not there.

DougSeal said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

ILR applications take a minimum six months to process and during that time you have to surrender your passport to the Home Office. It’s not a case of being “bothered” because the system is broken and there are serious practical issues for many people in surrendering ones passport for that long. It is possible to get the passport back in an emergency but it’s not guaranteed. Even the extortionately expensive “same day” service in Croydon has a 7 or 8 week waiting list.

It’s not a case of being “bothered” it’s a case of the administrative capability of this country to cope with an extraordinarily difficult process is simply not there.

That might be the case for non-EU cases, but I thought the settled status scheme was supposed to be much more streamlined?

Yes, you can even scan your passport rather than send it in.
https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families/what-youll-need-to-apply

malcolmg said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Dadge said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

SNIP

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

I suppose that they wouldn't. Or at least they wouldn't return.

The logical course of action would be to sort out one's residency status before going on holiday.

Those 2 million applications are going to mean that the Home Office will be swamped.

And of course from 1 November they will be applying on the same basis as the non EU applicants, if PP has her way.

Will they? I thought the article was referring to people who want to come to the UK after Oct 31st?

btw won't EU nationals just be able to waltz in across the Irish border?

Yep, but proving a right to work might be difficult.

They can just say they have been here without break for 10 years. Who or what system will check?

Is that like the Windrush ones who said they had been here 50 years, paid tax , brought up families, etc but still got deported

I think we have long said on here that the EU immigration thing is going to make the windrush scandal look like a smooth well thought out policy. Which perhaps to foreigner-hating leavers will be a bonus.

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

I think the point is that the EU allows Germans to live freely and work in areas that were once an integral part of Germany, and to travel to and fro without restriction. The Irish see it similarly with respect to NI.

Given the vast amount of ethnic cleansing that went on in the 1940s it's hard to argue that there is very much left that is German in Pomerania and Silesia.

Since the border was also open from 1971-80 again I'm not convinced this is a valid argument.

Eh? The border was open to all Germans? Shame the people who died trying to get over the Berlin Wall didn’t get the memo.

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

To be exact, 103km East of Berlin. It's not what I would call close.

RobD said:

DougSeal said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

ILR applications take a minimum six months to process and during that time you have to surrender your passport to the Home Office. It’s not a case of being “bothered” because the system is broken and there are serious practical issues for many people in surrendering ones passport for that long. It is possible to get the passport back in an emergency but it’s not guaranteed. Even the extortionately expensive “same day” service in Croydon has a 7 or 8 week waiting list.

It’s not a case of being “bothered” it’s a case of the administrative capability of this country to cope with an extraordinarily difficult process is simply not there.

That might be the case for non-EU cases, but I thought the settled status scheme was supposed to be much more streamlined?

Yes, you can even scan your passport rather than send it in.
https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families/what-youll-need-to-apply

It is supposed to be.

https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families

In practice it seems a pretty clunky system.

Foxy said:

RobD said:

DougSeal said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Eh?

There doesn't need to be a new system in place. On October 31, EU citizens (excluding Ireland) will be treated exactly the same as citizens from anywhere else in the world. That is the default position. There is no need to put in place alternative arrangements, except (one would think) to cover people already in the UK. Future arrangements regarding EU citizens would be done on a country-by-country basis with individual EU states, as this is not an EU competence once we've left the bloc.

Only 30% of the EU citizens here have gained ILR, only a small propotion of the remainder will get it in time.

Think of it as Windrush times 100.

The more relevant number is how many of those applied have got it? If only 30% had bothered, then that is a good number. If all applied and only 30% have got it, then there is a serious issue.

ILR applications take a minimum six months to process and during that time you have to surrender your passport to the Home Office. It’s not a case of being “bothered” because the system is broken and there are serious practical issues for many people in surrendering ones passport for that long. It is possible to get the passport back in an emergency but it’s not guaranteed. Even the extortionately expensive “same day” service in Croydon has a 7 or 8 week waiting list.

It’s not a case of being “bothered” it’s a case of the administrative capability of this country to cope with an extraordinarily difficult process is simply not there.

That might be the case for non-EU cases, but I thought the settled status scheme was supposed to be much more streamlined?

Yes, you can even scan your passport rather than send it in.
https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families/what-youll-need-to-apply

It is supposed to be.

https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families

In practice it seems a pretty clunky system.

But one that does not involve surrendering your passport for 7-8 weeks. I have no idea what the typical wait period is, but they've managed to get through a million applications since March.

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

You have missed the point. You are supposed to be thinking on the history that made it come to be there.

You mean, like the time Helmut Kohl threatened to invade Poland to recover the territories forfeited under Potsdam by force?

While Poland and East Germany were in the Warsaw Pact, not he EEC/EU. There have been no such threats since they have been.

Incorrect. There were such threats in 1990. It was part of the West German Constitution (Article 23, I think) claime dall of Germany's 'historic territories', a large chunk of which formed modern Poland. Kohl said he wanted either the territory, or huge compensation the Poles couldn't afford, or he would send in his army. Which was a very Helmut Kohl-ish way of going about things, I have to say. Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and it came to nothing.

As for your second post - I said between East Germany and Poland, because that was what this dimwitted post was about. In case you were unaware, the Berlin Wall was between East and West Germany, and is therefore not relevant.

I will admit I'm surprised as well anybody could spend time in Berlin and get starry-eyed about the Polish border and not the grim history of the city of Berlin itself. But of course the reunification of Germany had nothing to do with the EU.

None of which would happen now both nations are in the EU. QED.

RobD said:

But one that does not involve surrendering your passport for 7-8 weeks. I have no idea what the typical wait period is, but they've managed to get through a million applications since March.

To answer my own question, 1-4 days:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/eu-settlement-scheme-application-processing-times/eu-settlement-scheme-pilot-current-expected-processing-times-for-applications

After which you can surely visit family overseas, attend wedding etc.

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

work visas at least. It will be a problem when my EU colleagues go to visit family.

Only 30% of the EU workers here have managed to get through the registration process.

And why shouldn't EU workers get work visas?

Or alternatively why should non-EU workers get work visas?

The problem is that about 2 million EU citizens will need work visas issuing before Halloween, if this policy is enforced. I suspect that the Home Office will not be able to manage that.

In the meantime what happens when one of my Greek doctors flies home in November to visit family? Will he only be readmitted on a tourist visa without entitlement to work?

Bear in mind that only 30% ofthe EU residents here have been processed for leave to remain.

Why would they visit family when they know their immigration status is up in the air?

I suppose that they wouldn't. Or at least they wouldn't return.

The logical course of action would be to sort out one's residency status before going on holiday.

Those 2 million applications are going to mean that the Home Office will be swamped.

And of course from 1 November they will be applying on the same basis as the non EU applicants, if PP has her way.

Given applications for permanent leave to remain opened before we were due to leave in March, why haven't two-thirds bothered to apply for it yet and why will they suddenly be leaving now?

It’s not a question of being “bothered” rather a question of the Home Office not having the budget or capability to process the millions of applications being made. The immigration system simply cannot cope and will not be able to cope.

DougSeal said:

But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.

It also states that for a typical case they send your passport back three days after it is received. So you may be without your passport for five working days. A minor inconvenience, but not the two months you were suggesting earlier.

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.

.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".

So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.

Streeter said:

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.

.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".

So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.

This. I’ve been an EU citizen for all but 3 days of my life.

RobD said:

DougSeal said:

But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.

It also states that for a typical case they send your passport back three days after it is received. So you may be without your passport for five working days. A minor inconvenience, but not the two months you were suggesting earlier.

I can only speak from experience as a Partner in the Employment and Immigration Law department of a law firm. I do employment but I am ultimately responsible for the work of Paralegals/Legal Execs who deal with these applications. A “typical case” to UKVI is one where everything goes right and everyone at both ends has everything lined up just right, has used the right colour ink, has not tried to use an unsupported browser like Chrome, has a neat paper trail of documents that everyone is happy with. One case in ten in other words - and even then 5 days is laughably optimistic.

Philip_Thompson said:

Streeter said:

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.

.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".

So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.

Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.

Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.

“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?

DougSeal said:

But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.

No it doesn't suggest there is a problem. Apple is a notoriously closed system and if they're not willing to co-operate with even the government to open up what is needed to be open then it is out of their hands. Its like suggesting there should be an app for a Nokia 3210. All this means is Apple is crap, not that the Home Office [which absolutely has its faults] has a problem.

There is an alternative solution available if you can't get access to an Android.

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.

No it doesn't suggest there is a problem. Apple is a notoriously closed system and if they're not willing to co-operate with even the government to open up what is needed to be open then it is out of their hands. Its like suggesting there should be an app for a Nokia 3210. All this means is Apple is crap, not that the Home Office [which absolutely has its faults] has a problem.

There is an alternative solution available if you can't get access to an Android.

See my explainer above as to why these other solutions don’t work. And it’s nothing to do with Apple not cooperating. They say they will have the iPhone app ready by the end of this year. It’s a lack of funds, developers and competence.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.

Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?

I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right?
And yes, I do work in finance.

Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.

And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.

It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.

A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25

If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

To be exact, 103km East of Berlin. It's not what I would call close.

60 miles = London to Canterbury

RobD said:

DougSeal said:

RobD said:

DougSeal said:

But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.

It also states that for a typical case they send your passport back three days after it is received. So you may be without your passport for five working days. A minor inconvenience, but not the two months you were suggesting earlier.

I can only speak from experience as a Partner in the Employment and Immigration Law department of a law firm. I do employment but I am ultimately responsible for the work of Paralegals/Legal Execs who deal with these applications. A “typical case” to UKVI is one where everything goes right and everyone at both ends has everything lined up just right, has used the right colour ink, has not tried to use an unsupported browser like Chrome, has a neat paper trail of documents that everyone is happy with. One case in ten in other words - and even then 5 days is laughably optimistic.

But is your experience for non-EU indefinite leave to remain cases, rather than the settled status scheme? I can't see how they would take more than a few days per case if they've processed more than a million cases in under six months.

We do the settled status scheme, non-EU, Tier 1, students, the whole shebang. People come to us for help BECAUSE of the problems with the settled status scheme. If it were as straightforward as you say they wouldn’t be paying a City law firm for help.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.

Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?

I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right?
And yes, I do work in finance.

Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.

And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.

It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.

A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25

If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.

Or we don't defend the currency.

The EM currency crisis wasn't because we were rightly needing to defend the currency, it was because we couldn't and shouldn't defend it and Soros knew that.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.

Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?

I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right?
And yes, I do work in finance.

Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.

And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.

It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.

A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25

If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.

Raising interest rates isn’t going to help if the currency is collapsing because the economy is going down the Brexit toilet. They won’t even try to defend it that way. The solution in such a case is to retreat to May’s deal, or something as close to it as is possible at the time, ASAP. Assuming the EU is willing to listen to us by then.

The additional problem is that we now have *very* interlinked supply chains, so even UK products are to a significant extent the product of EU components. A weak Pound does not necessarily give us a competitive advantage, there is inflation built into in the system for UK production. The example of Marmite shows this: the substance is UK produced, but the jars are made in Holland, so the devaluation does not reduce Marmite prices and increase exports. This is especially true in the Automotive and Aerospace sectors.

This could well be 2008-09 plus. OK so the banking sector is a bit more stable on the regulatory side, but the challenger banks and the limits of helicopter money put serious restraints on what the banks will wish to do. They cannot open the taps, because the water behind the dam has been drained off over the past decade, because negative real rates have put all capital accumulation onto the investment markets and the super short end, there is nothing in the medium to long end. Helicopter cash gives the illusion of liquidity, but that could all dry up almost instantaneously.

A gentle reminder that the average base rate from 1694-2009 was 5%, I think that unless rates go back towards trend then the banking sector can not provide growth capital. The problem is that getting it back to trend would be short run devastating and the time is clearly not now to attempt it.

While the UK current account deficit is c4-5% per annum, with an accumulated debt of about 88% of GDP, we should note that total UK investments overseas is over GBP 11 trillion, (our GDP is only GBP 2 trillion), so overall the problem is that we are paying now but receiving later. We will have to do something about UK productivity, but the BoP crisis here is not as immediate as all that.

Nevertheless there is now significant evidence that the global economy is poised for a downturn, so the UK could still be looking at 70s-style stagflation. This could also be combined with a sustained fall in asset prices, so if you are looking at an unwinding of most of the gains from the early 1990s then the UK really is a pretty weak spot, and the BoE has precious little on the monetary side, and the UK government even less on the fiscal side, given no deal costs across the UK economy will be up by something like 15% on a central case. That and a house price crash will bring guys with torches and pitchforks onto the streets.

So I think the few months are going to be really messy and I think the adjustment will make Black Wednesday look like a fart in a windstorm. Fundamentally a bunch of journalists like Gove or Johnson or spivvy PR men like Cummings have not got a clue about what is going to hit them and anyone who could have told them has quit,

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Streeter said:

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.

.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".

So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.

Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.

Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.

“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?

You have free movement still for the next six weeks.

Another Leaver who can’t count?

He's too excited about leaving to count properly

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Streeter said:

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.

A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.

The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.

Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.

It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.

.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".

So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.

Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.

Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.

“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?

You have free movement still for the next six weeks.

I also lead a company which employs 75 people. Should I take it and them with me?