politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Br
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It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.-1 -
@AlastairMeeks surely we would have seen a greater LD vote share in Brecon if the polls were overweighting leavers?0
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That was yesterdays news !!!!HYUFD said:0 -
One game at a time Malky - 3 goals tomorrow is all we need.malcolmg said:FPT
JBriskinindyref2 said:
Big man Sam Cosgrove out injured for tomorrows pittordie clash. Pretty disastrous news.
They are useless anyway, be lucky to get 3rd place this year0 -
Why does the PM have to request it? Why can't the EU offer it? The PM has a role because he presumably has a veto on the European Council, but if he defies Parliament on this then he is probably acting illegally (isn't that essentially the basis of the advice given by the Attorney general to May?)Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was explained by Sky when they reported the letter. Exit from the EU comes under A50 and to gain an extension the PM has to request it and the EU agree.Beibheirli_C said:There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"
I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
Sky indicated it was the PM decision0 -
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:0 -
Not including Don't Knows they wouldn't, plus if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by 31st October last weekend's Opinium has 46% for Leave with No Deal, more than the 26% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combinednichomar said:HYUFD said:So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal
But 55% would vote remain in a second referendum from the same poll so sto being selective
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
Surely they are free to put whatever conditions they want in the way of a free trade agreement?Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:0 -
Pelosi talking rubbish given one of her no2s just trashed John Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviseralex. said:
I'm unclear HYUFD, perhaps you can explain, I struggle with unusual English words.HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:
What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?0 -
No. The only way of leaving before the deadline is with a deal.Gallowgate said:Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?
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Your response is above my pay grade to be honestalex. said:
Why does the PM have to request it? Why can't the EU offer it? The PM has a role because he presumably has a veto on the European Council, but if he defies Parliament on this then he is probably acting illegally (isn't that essentially the basis of the advice given by the Attorney general to May?)Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was explained by Sky when they reported the letter. Exit from the EU comes under A50 and to gain an extension the PM has to request it and the EU agree.Beibheirli_C said:There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"
I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
Sky indicated it was the PM decision
Sky implied that Brexit is under A50 and between HMG (PM) and the EU and the PM could chose not to request an extension0 -
I have been almost completely certain that public opinion had essentially not moved much since 2016.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
Not to mention the fact that the United States are guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement. So i'm afraid in this case it is their fucking business!Gallowgate said:
Surely they are free to put whatever conditions they want in the way of a free trade agreement?Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:0 -
The Democrats did it in 1948 when Truman was re electedrcs1000 said:
Just as a matter of interest, how often has the party of the President retaken the House after losing it at the midterms?HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:0 -
So all don’t knows would vote leave? If I’ve got the English right a plurality of voters would vote remain.HYUFD said:
Not including Don't Knows they wouldn't, plus if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by 31st October last weekend's Opinium has 46% for Leave with No Deal, more than the 26% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combinednichomar said:HYUFD said:So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal
But 55% would vote remain in a second referendum from the same poll so sto being selective
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
DTJnr should be sad. Bill de Blasio is probably the Democrat who would lose by the biggest margins to Trump.HYUFD said:0 -
That's not true. If we repealed the European Communities Act 1973, we would have effectively depart "just like that".Chris said:
No. The only way of leaving before the deadline is with a deal.Gallowgate said:Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?
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I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.0 -
Even her shits are better than Bolton?HYUFD said:
Pelosi talking rubbish given one of her no2s just trashed John Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviseralex. said:
I'm unclear HYUFD, perhaps you can explain, I struggle with unusual English words.HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:
What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?
Can't argue with that.0 -
Maybe as Leavers have better things to do than answer polls telling pollsters how much they hate Brexit given they voted for it!AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
That doesn't even make sense.HYUFD said:
Pelosi talking rubbish given one of her no2s just trashed John Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviseralex. said:
I'm unclear HYUFD, perhaps you can explain, I struggle with unusual English words.HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:
What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?0 -
Thanks for that. In addition to the above, would you also be able to explain to me what the word "non-sequitur" means? Doesn't really sound English so I really struggle with that one! Ta.HYUFD said:
Pelosi talking rubbish given one of her no2s just trashed John Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviseralex. said:
I'm unclear HYUFD, perhaps you can explain, I struggle with unusual English words.HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:
What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?0 -
Obviously I'm talking about the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty.rcs1000 said:
That's not true. If we repealed the European Communities Act 1973, we would have effectively depart "just like that".Chris said:
No. The only way of leaving before the deadline is with a deal.Gallowgate said:Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?
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Well many have died since the vote, some even before!AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
So that's, what, 71 years ago?HYUFD said:
The Democrats did it in 1948 when Truman was re electedrcs1000 said:
Just as a matter of interest, how often has the party of the President retaken the House after losing it at the midterms?HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:
A common occurance, then.
Have you looked at the generic Congressional ballot polls?0 -
Given that people seem increasingly to vote the same way down the line, I'd expect the House to go to whichever party wins the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The Democrats did it in 1948 when Truman was re electedrcs1000 said:
Just as a matter of interest, how often has the party of the President retaken the House after losing it at the midterms?HYUFD said:
Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anywaywilliamglenn said:0 -
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
Great. Go for it then!HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
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Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?0 -
Personally, I hope they do, I don't want a trade deal with the US (not a slight on the people who are delightful). I object to her making public pronouncements on a British policy matter.Gallowgate said:
Surely they are free to put whatever conditions they want in the way of a free trade agreement?Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:0 -
Yougov finds the views rightwingers are most likely to hold over leftwingers are backing leaving the EU, supporting nuclear weapons and reducing immigration. The views leftwingers are most likely to hold over rightwingers are reducing private sector involvement in the NHS, support for multiculturalism and remaining in the EU.
However there is bipartisan support from both rightwingers and leftwingers for converting to green and renewable energy, reducing global population growth and euthanasia, an entirely or mostly elected House of Lords, a significant Governmemt role in the economy, a belief the criminal justice system is too soft and there needs to be stricter school discipline.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/14/left-wing-vs-right-wing-its-complicated0 -
But the US is a guarantor of the Belfast Agreement, so it is her/their fucking business.Luckyguy1983 said:
Personally, I hope they do, I don't want a trade deal with the US (not a slight on the people who are delightful). I object to her making public pronouncements on a British policy matter.Gallowgate said:
Surely they are free to put whatever conditions they want in the way of a free trade agreement?Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:0 -
The Tories could get 40% and do very very nicely at the next election.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
Off topic but following my enjoyment of the CWC I’m going to watch Durham play Yorkshire Vikings next Friday night. I’m looking forward to it.0
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Why should Labour have voted for a deal that they disagreed with? If you think that MPs should have voted for any deal that was put to them regardless of whether they agreed with it, why did the government not sign up to Labour's deal? By your logic Tory MPs would have been obliged to vote for it. Then we would have left the EU by now. So it was the Tories' fault.Omnium said:
Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?0 -
I cannot remember the last time I flew with Cathay but I'm now officially boycotting them.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7356017/Cathay-Pacific-says-fired-two-pilots-Hong-Kong-protests.html0 -
I know this is said tongue in cheek but it made me wonder whether it makes sense for pollsters to weight their sample back to the EUref 52/48 split.nichomar said:
Well many have died since the vote, some even before!AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.
Given we know the age ranges of Leave and Remain voters were markedly different it must make sense, three years later, to apply likely mortality rates to the population that voted in 2016.0 -
If anyone is looking to lose huge amounts of money then I can thoroughly recommend lining up for WeWork IPO.
Makes Uber look like a prim modestly run company.0 -
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
CoolGallowgate said:Off topic but following my enjoyment of the CWC I’m going to watch Durham play Yorkshire Vikings next Friday night. I’m looking forward to it.
Hope it stays dry! 0 -
What do you think of her as a candidate?rcs1000 said:
I personally think the Democrat candidate matters very little compared to the economic environment. If the US is in recession, then pretty much any Democrat gets elected, and if it is growing at 2018 rates, then pretty much any Democrat gets defeated.Omnium said:I'm hoping Sanders withdraws and backs Gabbard, which some have suggested. I'm firmly of the view that Gabbard can beat Trump, and I don't see any of the others doing so. Totally talking my book of course, but my book is the way it is because of the above.
Trump changed the game, and the Democrats have to change it back, and that needs someone in some sense different. Or so goes my thinking. House not on it either way.
Re Ms Gabbard, I think the problem she has is that Sanders is a stubborn old man. If he backed her, then she'd be in with a real shout, but right now, she's a way away from qualifying for the September debates. And if you don't qualify for the debates, you're really not in the race.
I only think he might back her because I think it's actually his best plan.
If Trump is marching the economy north then he's unbeatable. Much of what he's done though just reflects in a temporary bounce. Some of what he's done was perhaps only to achieve that. I have no idea about whether he was looking to achieve a snowball effect, but he has (a bit) and it works.0 -
The weather looks good at the moment!CatMan said:
CoolGallowgate said:Off topic but following my enjoyment of the CWC I’m going to watch Durham play Yorkshire Vikings next Friday night. I’m looking forward to it.
Hope it stays dry!0 -
I would say not. Exit day is defined by The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Exit Day) (Amendment) (No. 2) Regulations 2019Gallowgate said:Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?
Amendment to the definition of “exit day”
2.—(1) Section 20 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (interpretation) is amended as follows.
(2) In subsection (1), in the definition of “exit day”, for the words from “means—” to “(and”, substitute “means 31 October 2019 at 11.00 p.m. (and”.
(3) In subsection (2), for the words from “Act—” to the end of the subsection, substitute “Act references to before, after or on exit day, or to beginning with exit day, are to be read as references to before, after or at 11.00 p.m. on 31 October 2019 or (as the case may be) to beginning with 11.00 p.m. on that day.”.
And these had to be rapidly agreed to replace the short-lived and much lamented The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Exit Day) (Amendment) Regulations 2019 which had set exit day as
Amendment to the definition of “exit day”
2.—(1) Section 20 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (interpretation) is amended as follows.
(2) In subsection (1), in the definition of “exit day”, for “29 March 2019 at 11.00 p.m. (and” substitute—
“—
(a)if, in accordance with Article 1 of European Council Decision (EU) 2019/476 of 22 March 2019(1), the period provided for in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union is extended until 22 May 2019, 11.00 p.m. on that day, or
(b)if not, 11.00 p.m. on 12 April 2019,
(and”.
(3) In subsection (2) for the words from “references”, where it first appears, to the end substitute—
“—
(a)references to before, after or on exit day are to be read as references to before, after or at 11.00 p.m. on 22 May 2019 or (as the case may be) 12 April 2019, and
(b)references to beginning with exit day are to be read as references to beginning with 11.00 p.m. on the day concerned.”.0 -
The referendum electorate contains millions of GE non voters. Those skew leave I think.OblitusSumMe said:
I have been almost completely certain that public opinion had essentially not moved much since 2016.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
Their whole business model looks like a massive house of cards waiting for any sort of downturn in the economy to blow it down.Alistair said:If anyone is looking to lose huge amounts of money then I can thoroughly recommend lining up for WeWork IPO.
Makes Uber look like a prim modestly run company.0 -
Perhaps sooner than you thinkStreeter said:Hey @hyufd when are we getting the NI-only referendum on the backstop you promised us day after day after day after day after day?
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1161667791218446337?s=200 -
Or the Leave vote could split 25:15 with the Brexit Party, Remain parties would clean up and the Tories be extinguished.MarqueeMark said:
The Tories could get 40% and do very very nicely at the next election.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.
I think something in the middle would be more likely.0 -
Eh? 33.5m voted in the EU referendum and 32.2m voted in GE2017. Not that different.Pulpstar said:
The referendum electorate contains millions of GE non voters. Those skew leave I think.OblitusSumMe said:
I have been almost completely certain that public opinion had essentially not moved much since 2016.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.0 -
Some punctuation may help the understanding of this postHYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
Lol misremembered turnout !Gallowgate said:
Eh? 33.5m voted in the EU referendum and 32.2m voted in GE2017. Not that different.Pulpstar said:
The referendum electorate contains millions of GE non voters. Those skew leave I think.OblitusSumMe said:
I have been almost completely certain that public opinion had essentially not moved much since 2016.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s possible. I put it no higher than that. There’s certainly a problem that pollsters consistently have finding Leavers.OblitusSumMe said:
So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.1 -
Edit dodgy maths0
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What was the referendum then?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Why should Labour have voted for a deal that they disagreed with? If you think that MPs should have voted for any deal that was put to them regardless of whether they agreed with it, why did the government not sign up to Labour's deal? By your logic Tory MPs would have been obliged to vote for it. Then we would have left the EU by now. So it was the Tories' fault.Omnium said:
Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
A thing called by MPs because they couldn't decide, and yet now of no importance?
Labour are now completely denying the relevance of the result of the referendum. The LDs have gone one step further - they're completely denying that it ever took place. The SNP are simply a party of traitors (I'm happy that they should be allowed to be so).
0 -
Plenty of contradiction there as you would expect. I well remember both the Conservative and Labour parties claiming it was possible to cut taxes AND spend billions more on NHS and public services presumably because focus groups had shown people wanted to pay less in tax but also wanted more money spent on the NHS and other public services.HYUFD said:Yougov finds the views rightwingers are most likely to hold over leftwingers are backing leaving the EU, supporting nuclear weapons and reducing immigration. The views leftwingers are most likely to hold over rightwingers are reducing private sector involvement in the NHS, support for multiculturalism and remaining in the EU.
However there is bipartisan support from both rightwingers and leftwingers for converting to green and renewable energy, reducing global population growth and euthanasia, an entirely or mostly elected House of Lords, a significant Governmemt role in the economy, a belief the criminal justice system is too soft and there needs to be stricter school discipline.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/14/left-wing-vs-right-wing-its-complicated
This is the logical conclusion of policy driven by polling and focus groups. I look forward to the Conservatives campaigning on a "significant Government role in the economy".
As for euthanasia, I suspect that would divide parties as much as the EU does at present. It is for me as much a moral question as a political question? The right to live or the right to die? Not an easy one - what do you think personally?
0 -
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
No I understand you are a diehard Remainer and I understand you want to stop Brexit, if you don't like a contrary view toughChris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
It’s because the relevant response is not on today’s Tory crib sheet.Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
As a matter of numbers you are wrong. And as a matter of zeitgeist you are wronger.Omnium said:
Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?0 -
I think it might be one of those where it could be right for me because I understand my circumstances but difficult to accept for others when you don’t know the details. I support a woman’s right to choose but neither my wife or I would have thought about abortion unless under the most extreme circumstances. So it’s a very personal thing which is extremely difficult to legislate for.stodge said:
Plenty of contradiction there as you would expect. I well remember both the Conservative and Labour parties claiming it was possible to cut taxes AND spend billions more on NHS and public services presumably because focus groups had shown people wanted to pay less in tax but also wanted more money spent on the NHS and other public services.HYUFD said:Yougov finds the views rightwingers are most likely to hold over leftwingers are backing leaving the EU, supporting nuclear weapons and reducing immigration. The views leftwingers are most likely to hold over rightwingers are reducing private sector involvement in the NHS, support for multiculturalism and remaining in the EU.
However there is bipartisan support from both rightwingers and leftwingers for converting to green and renewable energy, reducing global population growth and euthanasia, an entirely or mostly elected House of Lords, a significant Governmemt role in the economy, a belief the criminal justice system is too soft and there needs to be stricter school discipline.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/14/left-wing-vs-right-wing-its-complicated
This is the logical conclusion of policy driven by polling and focus groups. I look forward to the Conservatives campaigning on a "significant Government role in the economy".
As for euthanasia, I suspect that would divide parties as much as the EU does at present. It is for me as much a moral question as a political question? The right to live or the right to die? Not an easy one - what do you think personally?0 -
Omnium said:
Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
PS I’m getting a bit fed up at the way that death cult Leavers keep claiming I was opposed to the deal. I repeatedly said I would vote for it.0 -
I look forward to Corbyn Labour campaigning for nuclear energy and tighter restrictions on immigration too which 50% and 47% respectively of even leftwingers support.stodge said:
Plenty of contradiction there as you would expect. I well remember both the Conservative and Labour parties claiming it was possible to cut taxes AND spend billions more on NHS and public services presumably because focus groups had shown people wanted to pay less in tax but also wanted more money spent on the NHS and other public services.HYUFD said:Yougov finds the views rightwingers are most likely to hold over leftwingers are backing leaving the EU, supporting nuclear weapons and reducing immigration. The views leftwingers are most likely to hold over rightwingers are reducing private sector involvement in the NHS, support for multiculturalism and remaining in the EU.
However there is bipartisan support from both rightwingers and leftwingers for converting to green and renewable energy, reducing global population growth and euthanasia, an entirely or mostly elected House of Lords, a significant Governmemt role in the economy, a belief the criminal justice system is too soft and there needs to be stricter school discipline.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/14/left-wing-vs-right-wing-its-complicated
This is the logical conclusion of policy driven by polling and focus groups. I look forward to the Conservatives campaigning on a "significant Government role in the economy".
As for euthanasia, I suspect that would divide parties as much as the EU does at present. It is for me as much a moral question as a political question? The right to live or the right to die? Not an easy one - what do you think personally?
At the moment voters want a Government that is more interventionist in the economy (without raising their own taxes too much) but will cut immigration and be tough on crime.
On euthanasia my personal view is I would only consider it for those with terminal illnesses in the last days of life0 -
0
-
I was thinking more about euthanasia which I think could be the next great moral question - the abortion or homosexuality de nos jours.nichomar said:
I think it might be one of those where it could be right for me because I understand my circumstances but difficult to accept for others when you don’t know the details. I support a woman’s right to choose but neither my wife or I would have thought about abortion unless under the most extreme circumstances.
I could imagine a future Government introducing a bill allowing euthanasia under extreme circumstances but would that be right?
I'm genuinely interested in what people think on euthanasia as I think it crosses party, social and cultural lines.
0 -
Leave him alone. Some people have the oddest hobbies...Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
I can confirm that Alastair, indeed you haveAlastairMeeks said:Omnium said:
Well you're just plain wrong here. Remainers caused it to fail. The people, like you, and like Soubry, that just deny the vote ever happened. Worse by far are Labour. What a surprise - the poison in British veins continues.AlastairMeeks said:
The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.Omnium said:
Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.AlastairMeeks said:Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
PS I’m getting a bit fed up at the way that death cult Leavers keep claiming I was opposed to the deal. I repeatedly said I would vote for it.0 -
Don't look at meBeibheirli_C said:
Leave him alone. Some people have the oddest hobbies...Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/ 0 -
Sky are a bunch of reporters chasing advertising via viewer figures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was explained by Sky when they reported the letter. Exit from the EU comes under A50 and to gain an extension the PM has to request it and the EU agree.Beibheirli_C said:There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"
I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
Sky indicated it was the PM decision
Mr Sedwill is a professional Civil Servant who advises the highest levels of govt..
Which one do you think is more likely to be correct?0 -
Twitch ....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Don't look at meBeibheirli_C said:
Leave him alone. Some people have the oddest hobbies...Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/ 0 -
Funny timingGallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=210 -
What is your official hobby title? Trainspotter? TrainRider?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Don't look at meBeibheirli_C said:
Leave him alone. Some people have the oddest hobbies...Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
He’s a troll. He doesn’t come here for genuine discussion, but simply to try and wind other people up. It was obvious from the exchanges earlier this week, if it wasn’t already from his posts about declaring war on Iran and sending in troops to pacify Scotland.Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
Sky reports sounded logical but time will tellBeibheirli_C said:
Sky are a bunch of reporters chasing advertising via viewer figures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was explained by Sky when they reported the letter. Exit from the EU comes under A50 and to gain an extension the PM has to request it and the EU agree.Beibheirli_C said:There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"
I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
Sky indicated it was the PM decision
Mr Sedwill is a professional Civil Servant who advises the highest levels of govt..
Which one do you think is more likely to be correct?0 -
Drip feeding them one at a time or is that just wishful thinking.IanB2 said:
Funny timingGallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=210 -
I think the two issues are linked in that there will always be a split between the pro life lobby and others on moral issues such as these. When push comes to shove if someone has made a living will with specific circumstances under which they want to terminate their life then that should be respected. There will always be a need to ensure people are not being taken advantage of but the living will does at least express an individuals wishes whilst still capable of expressing them.stodge said:
I was thinking more about euthanasia which I think could be the next great moral question - the abortion or homosexuality de nos jours.nichomar said:
I think it might be one of those where it could be right for me because I understand my circumstances but difficult to accept for others when you don’t know the details. I support a woman’s right to choose but neither my wife or I would have thought about abortion unless under the most extreme circumstances.
I could imagine a future Government introducing a bill allowing euthanasia under extreme circumstances but would that be right?
I'm genuinely interested in what people think on euthanasia as I think it crosses party, social and cultural lines.0 -
Yeah. Tough.HYUFD said:
No I understand you are a diehard Remainer and I understand you want to stop Brexit, if you don't like a contrary view toughChris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
There was certainly something for everyone in that survation. HOWEVER a pm is judged on more than just brexit. Can’t take eye off other balls or will drop the share price.
As well as Brexit, Boris is responsible for many more things now that can drag down his share price.
1. The EU are about to do the dirty on UK and explain the grounds the Iranians are held in Gibraltar, for breaking EU law about supplying Syria, only applies to EU vessels, therefore UK and Gibraltar are in the illegal position as Iranians claim.
2. The British voters need reassurance the UK and France have a grip on migrants crossing the channel and illegally entering into Britain, and beating the gangs making a killing running that escalating situation. No one believes the official numbers because those are the ones rescued, there’s not enough being done to stop those paddling across undetected.
3. Boris head turned away from Hong Kong as he does nothing.
4. Boris head turned away from the British registered vessel and others held illegally by the Iranians, as he does nothing.0 -
If Lee does defect, the Government's majority - with DUP support - drops to one . I am treating Elphicke as a Tory despite the withdrawal of the Whip..IanB2 said:
Funny timingGallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=210 -
Strong states do as they wish; weak states endure what they must, as Thucydides put it.Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:
Yet another excellent reason why it is not sensible to leave a powerful grouping in which we are very influential and put ourselves at a disadvantage.0 -
Deleted (Talking crap as usual)0
-
1. The UK is still in the EU so until we Leave wrong if they are in EU waters then EU law applies.Zephyr said:
Yeah. Tough.HYUFD said:
No I understand you are a diehard Remainer and I understand you want to stop Brexit, if you don't like a contrary view toughChris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
There was certainly something for everyone in that survation. HOWEVER a pm is judged on more than just brexit. Can’t take eye off other balls or will drop the share price.
As well as Brexit, Boris is responsible for many more things now that can drag down his share price.
1. The EU are about to do the dirty on UK and explain the grounds the Iranians are held in Gibraltar, for breaking EU law about supplying Syria, only applies to EU vessels, therefore UK and Gibraltar are in the illegal position as Iranians claim.
2. The British voters need reassurance the UK and France have a grip on migrants crossing the channel and illegally entering into Britain, and beating the gangs making a killing running that escalating situation. No one believes the official numbers because those are the ones rescued, there’s not enough being done to stop those paddling across undetected.
3. Boris head turned away from Hong Kong as he does nothing.
4. Boris head turned away from the British registered vessel and others held illegally by the Iranians, as he does nothing.
2. The UK is ending free movement and replacing it with a points system and Salvini is set to win a landslide in the autumn in the Italian general election to send migrant boats back to Africa.
3. Raab personally phoned Carrie Lam despite Chinese protestations to complain about treatment of pro democracy pritestors in Hong Kong.
4. It was on May's watch the Iranian vessel was seized not Boris' and the UK is now set to undertake patrols with US ships in the region.0 -
Prepare for all hell to break loose in Totnes in 3...2...1Gallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=210 -
For diehard Remainers such as yourself anyone who disagrees with you is a trollIanB2 said:
He’s a troll. He doesn’t come here for genuine discussion, but simply to try and wind other people up. It was obvious from the exchanges earlier this week, if it wasn’t already from his posts about declaring war on Iran and sending in troops to pacify Scotland.Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totnes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)ydoethur said:
Prepare for all hell to break loose in Totnes in 3...2...1Gallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=21
Lib Dems were only 877 away in 1997!0 -
Came pretty close in 2005 as well.CatMan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totnes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)ydoethur said:
Prepare for all hell to break loose in Totnes in 3...2...1Gallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=21
Lib Dems were only 877 away in 1997!
And Julian Brazil has been their candidate ever since.0 -
I know I shouldn't get into this again because I don't want to fall out with you again HYUFD, but Chris isn't saying this because he is a remainer and disagrees with you. Yes he is and yes I assume he wants to stop Brexit, but there are plenty like him on this site and plenty of people who have your view on this site and they don't get into this conflict.HYUFD said:
No I understand you are a diehard Remainer and I understand you want to stop Brexit, if you don't like a contrary view toughChris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
It is genuinely because you don't seem to understand their posts because you reply in a completely unrelated way.
Why do you think you get so many comments like this when other leavers don't?
When I tried to explain this with my logic example which excluded any opinions you assumed I was attacking your style. I wasn't. It has nothing to do with style. There is just no back and forth on an issue between you and everyone else.
I won't say anymore because I don't want to resume the conversation of the other day and I say what I'm saying in a manner that is aimed to be friendly.0 -
She'd have a very good chance of retaining the seat imo. The LDs ran a close 2nd to Con in the four elections before 2015.ydoethur said:
Prepare for all hell to break loose in Totnes in 3...2...1Gallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=210 -
If you want to lose small amounts of money then bet on Hickenlooper and Sherrod Brown, like I did.Alistair said:If anyone is looking to lose huge amounts of money then I can thoroughly recommend lining up for WeWork IPO.
Makes Uber look like a prim modestly run company.1 -
I hope the rain stays away for you. We had tickets for the match on Sunday, but we ended up visiting Durham Cathedral instead (which was lovely, but not what we were looking forward to enjoying).Gallowgate said:Off topic but following my enjoyment of the CWC I’m going to watch Durham play Yorkshire Vikings next Friday night. I’m looking forward to it.
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Yes.Benpointer said:
She'd have a very good chance of retaining the seat imo. The LDs ran a close 2nd to Con in the four elections before 2015.ydoethur said:
Prepare for all hell to break loose in Totnes in 3...2...1Gallowgate said:So hot right now.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1161717274421710848?s=21
And I'm sure the former candidate and entire local party will be utterly delighted about this.
How could I ever doubt it?0 -
Liverpool losing. chuckle0
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With respect HYUFD that is nonsenseHYUFD said:
For diehard Remainers such as yourself anyone who disagrees with you is a trollIanB2 said:
He’s a troll. He doesn’t come here for genuine discussion, but simply to try and wind other people up. It was obvious from the exchanges earlier this week, if it wasn’t already from his posts about declaring war on Iran and sending in troops to pacify Scotland.Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/0 -
Between 1366-1377 the MP was some guy called John Prescott
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Get used to it. This is how the UK will be treated in future.Luckyguy1983 said:
None of your fucking business.williamglenn said:2 -
@HYUFD me old China let us not forget that you are a diehard remainer. Pretty strange that you should be using the term pejoratively.HYUFD said:
For diehard Remainers such as yourself anyone who disagrees with you is a trollIanB2 said:
He’s a troll. He doesn’t come here for genuine discussion, but simply to try and wind other people up. It was obvious from the exchanges earlier this week, if it wasn’t already from his posts about declaring war on Iran and sending in troops to pacify Scotland.Chris said:
You just don't seem to be understanding what other people are posting at all.HYUFD said:
No I am even if you dislike any poll showing support for BrexitChris said:
You're still not understanding the posts you're replying to at all, are you?HYUFD said:
It is 46% for No Deal on a forced choice against Revoke or further extension, more than enough for a Boris majorityChris said:I think the decrease of 6 points in the No Deal figure indicates that the more it's discussed, the less popular it is.
Obviously a danger for Johnson is not just that the figure is so low, but that during an election campaign it would be discussed very intensively indeed, and the figure could drop still further.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
You are a classic and honourable diehard remainer. Bravo!0 -
If the rumours re-Philip Lee are true, the Tories will be down to 311 seats (including Elphicke) by mid- September. Had that been the outcome at the June 2017 election, I wonder whether Theresa May would have responded differently. Would she even have bothered to arrive at an arrangement with the DUP?0
