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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit
NEW: Preferred Brexit outcome, updated:
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However, I don't think it is. As No Deal starts to actually appear on the horizon I think people are looking at things and going hmm it may not be a good idea.
Equally holidays abroad are currently more expensive.
Regarding the expected outcome of the Brexit process, 15% expect the UK to remain in the EU, and 16% think leaving with a deal is the most likely outcome. 49% predicted a no-deal Brexit. 21% said they do not know.
Predicted outcome (vs May)
Remain: 15 (-11)
Leave with Deal 16 (-4)
Leave No Deal: 49 (+15)
Don't Know: 21 (-)
Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)
Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.
Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's
I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand
The first fruits of the new electoral alliance perhaps?
He will do nothing to stop it.
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1161689350347939841?s=21
There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
The Great Man is trapped!
Trump changed the game, and the Democrats have to change it back, and that needs someone in some sense different. Or so goes my thinking. House not on it either way.
Re:header - Corbyn must look at the Con+Brexit numbers with foreboding. That could be all Con. A hard call to risk a vonc if what you're nailed on to get is five years of Boris.
However, returning to my original query: the Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?
Parliament is looking increasingly powerless to prevent No Deal, especially as Jezza is hardly busting a gut.
Only the EU can save Boris now. In return for ditching his red lines, I reckon Boris will beg the EU to 'reopen' negotiations provided that they keep mum about its being his idea. The EU will probably shrug and say 'whatever'.
Which Tom Watson seems to be doing already...
'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.
With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).
Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.
The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
Yes and not as reported earlier
Re Ms Gabbard, I think the problem she has is that Sanders is a stubborn old man. If he backed her, then she'd be in with a real shout, but right now, she's a way away from qualifying for the September debates. And if you don't qualify for the debates, you're really not in the race.
I do not know how many times over the months I have accused the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being incompetent and not knowing what they were doing.
No amount of deflection from remainers makes this point invalid
And I just want to leave with a deal. No deal and no Brexit are polar opposites and both must lose in the name of democracy
Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.
That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
They didn’t do that with any of the enabling Brexit legislation, which all narrowly passed.
I expect instead they’d have opposed it vigorously and then moved the trench warfare onto the transition period, blamed any problems on the WA (that they didn’t vote for) and then hope they could bring down the Government and take over the future FTA.
I think the approval numbers show the effective ceiling for a candidates support, and you can see that Warren and Buttigieg have the highest ceilings, while Sanders, Kloubachar and O'Rourke have the lowest.
Kloubachar is from the next door state of Minnesota, so should be doing better here.
The UK agreed a WA with the EU which the EU has ratified and will not re-negotiate. Our failure to ratify the WA is, in the EU's eyes, the sole reason we are heading for a No Deal exit on 31/10.
There are three options as there have always been - ratify the WA in the Commons, seek a further extension or seek to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU on the terms existing as of 23/6/16.
Johnson is gambling on the EU to blink particularly if the Irish get worried about the economic impact of a No Deal exit. Corbyn thinks stupidly the EU will tear up everything and start again just because he leads the UK Government - they won't in both instances.
The big development today has been the markets seeing the recession warning lights approaching. The timing could be awful for Trump's re-election but it will impact here and in Europe as well.
I think Brexit wouldn’t be put on the table again for a very long time (if at all) in the reverse scenario. It’d just fester as a nasty running sore, and affect GE turnouts, engagement in our civic politics and legitimacy of future Governments.
Probably one of the most obvious and pointless posts of the day, but err.. yes.
Obviously.
Anyway, what's the point of having a NI referendum to agree the (NI only) backstop after we have already exited?
Also a no deal Brexit when nobody is expecting it would certainly NOT lead to a majority. If you think we aren't prepared for it on October 31st, how could anybody possibly be prepared for it on Aug 24th? Both on a business level and an individual level. Just one minor example - there'd be people stuck on holiday in Europe suddenly finding their Driving licences were invalid overnight. Who couldn't get emergency health treatment. Who might not be able to get back.
Basically about as bonkers an idea as anyone has come up with!
https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1161678045692014594?s=21
What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?
But 55% would vote remain in a second referendum from the same poll so sto being selective
This life that I have
Is all that I have
And this life that I have is yours
poor souls
I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
So, if there were a forced choice between Remain and Leave without a deal, it would likely be very tight. Very few people give Remain as their second choice. Far more give Leave without a deal, or Leave with a deal.
At the start of the year, Survation had a poll giving a forced choice between Remain/No Deal, which had the former ahead by 51/49. Opinium tend to give narrow leads in the other direction.
Sky indicated it was the PM decision
If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.
https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/1161314909248000002?s=20
JBriskinindyref2 said:
Big man Sam Cosgrove out injured for tomorrows pittordie clash. Pretty disastrous news.
They are useless anyway, be lucky to get 3rd place this year