politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat pr
Comments
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They need someone to go to Brussels and ask for an extension, they don't want the thing to fall apart at the last minute because their PM doesn't show up...Endillion said:
Just go the whole hog and nominate Jared O'Mara, on the grounds that he's an Independent who's said he'll resign as an MP soon so is no threat to anyone.0 -
He also gets to fire Gove if his No Deal planning doesn't quite pan out.edmundintokyo said:
The other way of looking at this is that Boris can go full tilt at the No Deal thing while looking like it's all Cummings's idea, then if it looks like it's going pear-shaped he can fire Cummings and put someone else in. That makes it easier to get support back from people he's alienated with the current approach.Paristonda said:
This was the initial tactic against Trump and bannon too, portraying bannon as the puppet master annoyed the hell out of trump and contributed to his eventual firing of him. Seen as trying to upstage the boss. Cummings could go the same way, Boris won't want to look like he is nothing more than a puppet.
Result.....0 -
Speaking of all these resignations, I must say that for all we moan I do accept the usefulness of the party system, shared vision and values, to a degree and all that. But you never see the pettier side of partisan behaviour so much as when someone quits that party. Granted you get the inevitable praise from those like me or from political opponents, which must add to the reaction, but you get such petty reactions of 'who cares', 'good riddance' and general questioning of motivation and the like, it's quite unedifying.Beibheirli_C said:
It is. Just do not give a monkeys about the politicians or their careers or their parties.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Oh that it was so easyBeibheirli_C said:
There you go then... decision made.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Politically yes but economical noBeibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Speaking of which, how did your local party take your resignation?0 -
I think modelling is useful for prediction, or at least for examining various scenarios and delineating the envelope of realistic possibilities. The alternative is guesswork and gut feel.
I guess it is my operational research background that makes me favour modelling.
Good models need:
a) good base data (I have that by constituency. Results for last four elections, detailed demographics, remain/leave). Unfortunately I don't have local council makeup which is an indicator of activist base.
b) good current polling data. I favour an exponential moving average to smooth out noise and MOEs.
c) critically, explicit assumptions on voter behaviour to drive how the polling data changes the base data.
Baxter and Flavible have very simple explicit assumptions (though Flavible does not disclose the weighting).
What I'd really l like is a toolkit with which I could try a combination of assumptions which mirror plausible voting behaviour by different types of people in varying constituency contexts. Perhaps that is what the sophisticated YouGov model does?0 -
How many indeed? Impossible to know unless all are raided toute de suite.Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
But do we have the balls?0 -
Or indeed dick brain?kinabalu said:
How many indeed? Impossible to know unless all are raided toute de suite.Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
But do we have the balls?0 -
Best wait for a few more massacres to put them there first.kinabalu said:
How many indeed? Impossible to know unless all are raided toute de suite.Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
But do we have the balls?
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Do we yet know whether Tommy Robinson is likely to be called to Court Dick?Theuniondivvie said:
Or indeed dick brain?kinabalu said:
How many indeed? Impossible to know unless all are raided toute de suite.Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
But do we have the balls?0 -
Yours look very sophisticated. A very simple one I was thinking was to take:Barnesian said:I think modelling is useful for prediction, or at least for examining various scenarios and delineating the envelope of realistic possibilities. The alternative is guesswork and gut feel.
I guess it is my operational research background that makes me favour modelling.
Good models need:
a) good base data (I have that by constituency. Results for last four elections, detailed demographics, remain/leave). Unfortunately I don't have local council makeup which is an indicator of activist base.
b) good current polling data. I favour an exponential moving average to smooth out noise and MOEs.
c) critically, explicit assumptions on voter behaviour to drive how the polling data changes the base data.
Baxter and Flavible have very simple explicit assumptions (though Flavible does not disclose the weighting).
What I'd really l like is a toolkit with which I could try a combination of assumptions which mirror plausible voting behaviour by different types of people in varying constituency contexts. Perhaps that is what the sophisticated YouGov model does?
1. The constituency swings in the Euro Elections from the GE2017
2. Apply that to each of the HoC seats. E.g. apply SW London to all seats in SW London.
Admittedly not very sophisticated, but better than UNS where , in theory, you are applying the same swing to the BXP in Boston and in Richmond or Hampstead.0 -
But maybe you should add the LD vote with the Green votes because they may not contest in the same seat and the most likely sitting MP will be a Tory. If the campaign name is Unite to Remain, some Labour voters could alos join in, say, Richmond, London.justin124 said:
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.StuartDickson said:Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
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Yes, but the communities in question do not trust the police, so having the police encourage them to take their own video should provide reassurance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Police already carry body camerasFoxy said:
I would encourage anyone who is stopped and searched to take their own video, and with smartphones as ubiquitous as they are this is easily done. Police should encourage this too.Philip_Thompson said:On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
One reason so many youngsters carry knives is that they do not trust the police to defend them, and being armed is seen as a protection for them and their friends.
I disagree with that view, but then I am a fiftysomething white professional. The working class experience of policing (whatever ethnicity) tends to be rather different.0 -
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It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...0 -
Adonis used to be a Lib Dem. He switched to Labour when it was politically convenient for him to do so having lined up a post as one of Blair's inner circle, and up to now that has paid off for him. There must be a high likelihood that he will switch back to the Lib Dems in the near future.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1160510299977539584
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Well Hartlepool has been a Tory seat!MarqueeMark said:
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!Roger said:
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*HYUFD said:
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD votersRoger said:
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.HYUFD said:
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.Roger said:Fascinating header Alastair.
....Smelling salts for HYUFD please
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.0 -
In reality, I expect more Green voters to switch back to Labour - particularly if the pattern seen in the Opinium poll continues.surbiton19 said:
But maybe you should add the LD vote with the Green votes because they may not contest in the same seat and the most likely sitting MP will be a Tory. If the campaign name is Unite to Remain, some Labour voters could alos join in, say, Richmond, London.justin124 said:
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.StuartDickson said:Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.0 -
Roger does rather like to play into his role, but on the one time I have met him it was in a pub prior to the 2015 election. He seemed quite at home there, albeit drinking the wine rather than draught ales. I imagine that he would be fine in a Hartlepool pub.justin124 said:
Well Hartlepool has been a Tory seat!MarqueeMark said:
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!Roger said:
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*HYUFD said:
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD votersRoger said:
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.HYUFD said:
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.Roger said:Fascinating header Alastair.
....Smelling salts for HYUFD please
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.0 -
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.justin124 said:
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.StuartDickson said:Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
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Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.0 -
That does seem to be the case.JosiasJessop said:
It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1160504941909356544?s=200 -
Care does need taking though: any 'evidence' given from citizens' recordings should be given in full and unedited: media organisations should ensure they're not taken in by ten or fifteen seconds' snippets that set a narrative before the police have a chance to investigate, yet alone respond.Foxy said:
Yes, but the communities in question do not trust the police, so having the police encourage them to take their own video should provide reassurance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Police already carry body camerasFoxy said:
I would encourage anyone who is stopped and searched to take their own video, and with smartphones as ubiquitous as they are this is easily done. Police should encourage this too.Philip_Thompson said:On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
One reason so many youngsters carry knives is that they do not trust the police to defend them, and being armed is seen as a protection for them and their friends.
I disagree with that view, but then I am a fiftysomething white professional. The working class experience of policing (whatever ethnicity) tends to be rather different.1 -
Foxy. That's right. I'm sure the locals would take him to Seaton Carew afterwards, where he could have fish and chips accompanied by guacamole.0
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Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx0 -
Neither is Iceland, but it seems to have sheep.StuartDickson said:
Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.0 -
0
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Unless I misread the map there are hardly any sheep in France. Really surprised by that. Was there a pogrom at some point? Scandal if so.StuartDickson said:Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
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If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.kinabalu said:
Ironically I get the sense that Trump does not get to make any important decisions. I think they have found a way to keep him away from all that whilst allowing him plenty of 'being the Big Man' time, thus keeping him happy. It's unusual but necessity is the mother of invention.SouthamObserver said:I doubt Johnson cares whether Cummings is the story or not. He just wants to be PM and pretending to be Churchill. Trump has always been obsessive about being seen to be totally in charge and taking all the decisions. Both men are totally self-obsessed to the exclusion of all else, but that manifests itself in very different ways.
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I don't think we should get too hung up on a single subsample from a single poll but Kelly, formerly of this parish used to publish a rolling average Scottish subsample though I haven't seen it about on his site recently. I think subsample averages can be informative - it's what alerted me to the SNP2015geddon.StuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx0 -
The utter delusion is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Brexit Scientology is upon us.
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1160467448094756864?s=200 -
That was a good eveningFoxy said:
Roger does rather like to play into his role, but on the one time I have met him it was in a pub prior to the 2015 election. He seemed quite at home there, albeit drinking the wine rather than draught ales. I imagine that he would be fine in a Hartlepool pub.justin124 said:
Well Hartlepool has been a Tory seat!MarqueeMark said:
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!Roger said:
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*HYUFD said:
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD votersRoger said:
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.HYUFD said:
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.Roger said:Fascinating header Alastair.
....Smelling salts for HYUFD please
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.
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Big Lib Dem surge I seeStuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx1 -
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"FF43 said:
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.Beibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.0 -
Agreed.Gabs2 said:
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.kinabalu said:
Ironically I get the sense that Trump does not get to make any important decisions. I think they have found a way to keep him away from all that whilst allowing him plenty of 'being the Big Man' time, thus keeping him happy. It's unusual but necessity is the mother of invention.SouthamObserver said:I doubt Johnson cares whether Cummings is the story or not. He just wants to be PM and pretending to be Churchill. Trump has always been obsessive about being seen to be totally in charge and taking all the decisions. Both men are totally self-obsessed to the exclusion of all else, but that manifests itself in very different ways.
He has no interest in details, but the idea that he doesn’t throw his weight around on policy (however erratically) is ridiculous.
The rapid turnover in multiple cabinet posts ought to be a clue to that.
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Given that Trump’s personal lawyer/Attorney General and his Justice Department were in charge of Epstein’s incarceration, why would anyone trust Barr to conduct an enquiry into the alleged suicide ?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/10/jeffrey-epstein-death-conspiracy-theories-1456309
...But it was immediately clear that many people would not regard an inquiry overseen by Barr as credible. His handling of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the president and Russian election interference left many people, including most congressional Democrats, convinced he see his role not as defending rule of law, or the executive branch broadly, but President Donald Trump’s personal interests.
“AG lied to us about the Mueller report in order to protect his boss, Trump. He was in charge of Epstein’s care. And we’re just supposed to trust him on this as news breaks that Mar-a-Lago was a site for trafficking,” wrote Neera Tanden, head of the liberal Center for American Progress, on Twitter.
“We have to ask who stood to gain from his permanent silence,” said Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Tribe. “Who could he have incriminated in an effort to win favorable treatment from the Trump Justice Department?” He demanded that Barr recuse himself from “overseeing an inquiry that cuts this close to the bone.”...0 -
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.Gabs2 said:If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
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I do hope so.Theuniondivvie said:Brexit Scientology is upon us.
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1160467448094756864?s=20
I'm thinking British Vice Consul in Yining City would be a suitable next career move for him, and that will be easier if we're truly global.0 -
I thought we all agreed the root cause to the supply issue was the demand. Posh coke heads fuelling it. Like, erm...Philip_Thompson said:On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.0 -
Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%1 -
Now now Malcolm. I can see your smile from here.malcolmg said:
Big Lib Dem surge I seeStuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx0 -
The Swiss have sheep:oldpolitics said:
Neither is Iceland, but it seems to have sheep.StuartDickson said:
Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valais_Blacknose0 -
That has nothing to do with what I wrote.Zephyr said:
I thought we all agreed the root cause to the supply issue was the demand. Posh coke heads fuelling it. Like, erm...Philip_Thompson said:On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.0 -
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.kinabalu said:
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.Gabs2 said:If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.0 -
Kjh, more of a grinkjh said:
Now now Malcolm. I can see your smile from here.malcolmg said:
Big Lib Dem surge I seeStuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx0 -
Carried on with joint simulation exercises with S Korea I thinkkjh said:
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.kinabalu said:
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.Gabs2 said:If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.0 -
Yougov was also the most accurate pollster for the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the 2015 and 2017 General Elections.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.justin124 said:
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.StuartDickson said:Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.0 -
Thanks. I think that was it.nichomar said:
Carried on with joint simulation exercises with S Korea I thinkkjh said:
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.kinabalu said:
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.Gabs2 said:If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.0 -
The big difference is that BJ is a communicator..TM was notHYUFD said:
The Tories lost their poll lead because of the dementia tax, hunting restoration etc. There was little difference between Remainer tactical voting at the beginning or end of the campaign and Corbyn is still polling lower than he was at the beginning of the 2017 campaign.SouthamObserver said:
His ratings improved during the campaign if I recall correctly. The Tories had a huge polling lead and lost it. Why? Because millions of voters wanted to stop the Tories winning. I would not rule that out happening again. I think it is less likely, but I would definitely not rule it out. In all the polls from all the companies anti-No Deal parties are on 50%+.HYUFD said:
When Corbyn had a significantly higher favourable rating than he does nowSouthamObserver said:
The evidence for the potential for widespread tactical voting is the 40% Labour got in 2017.HYUFD said:
Nothing to ignore, you believe UNS shkjh said:
The point is HYFUD that is exactly what you have done. Your response was to apply UNS once again. Now you may be right and that maybe is what is going to happen, BUT that wasn't the point of the article or what Ian or I were discussing.HYUFD said:
Patronising as ever, not that your 'superior analysis' has ever proved of much useIanB2 said:
There is rarely a point that HY doesn't miss. He simply posts whatever factoid best suits his preconceptions without thinking about the article or preceding arguments at all.kjh said:
I probably agree with your point re tactical voting, but haven't you missed the whole point of the article otherwise.HYUFD said:
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.Roger said:Fascinating header Alastair.
....Smelling salts for HYUFD please
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote
You just ignored the whole point of the discussion. You didn't respond to it in anyway at all. You didn't even argue against it.
You just ignored it as if it wasn't there.
What is the point in a discussion if you just ignore what others are saying.
In Opinium today Tories plus Brexit Party are more than Labour plus LDs plus Greens anyway0 -
I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be.kinabalu said:
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.Gabs2 said:If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
0 -
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
It would be completely legitimate to leave the EU on the basis of a manifesto pledge. More so than a referendum in fact.Gabs2 said:
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"FF43 said:
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.Beibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.0 -
Absolutely. Labours excellent manifesto of 83 called for such a thing.Recidivist said:
It would be completely legitimate to leave the EU on the basis of a manifesto pledge. More so than a referendum in fact.Gabs2 said:
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"FF43 said:
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.Beibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.0 -
The striking thing is that you would struggle now to get a quarter of Scots to support a no deal Brexit. Thoughts go back to the poll tax debacle that kick started the SNP.Pulpstar said:
I don't think we should get too hung up on a single subsample from a single poll but Kelly, formerly of this parish used to publish a rolling average Scottish subsample though I haven't seen it about on his site recently. I think subsample averages can be informative - it's what alerted me to the SNP2015geddon.StuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
The question must now be what do the Scottish conservatives mps do? To vote for bj is to vote to lose their job maybe very quickly. I don’t see conservative head office being able to dictate to the Scottish conservatives to pick hard leaver candidates when Ruth is fundamentally opposed to it. The only option I can no longer see happening is brexit though a hard leave. It will be Exit only.0 -
Corbyn and Swinson on the other hand.....justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%1 -
Some curious links there - Barr used to work for Epstein's law firm, and Barr's father hired Epstein as a schoolteacher in the 70s (even though he was only 20, and had no relevant experience or education).Nigelb said:Given that Trump’s personal lawyer/Attorney General and his Justice Department were in charge of Epstein’s incarceration, why would anyone trust Barr to conduct an enquiry into the alleged suicide ?
0 -
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.Nigelb said:I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be.
I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...0 -
Heard of a lonely goatherd, but never a lonely shepherd.Nigelb said:
The Swiss have sheep:oldpolitics said:
Neither is Iceland, but it seems to have sheep.StuartDickson said:
Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valais_Blacknose1 -
I could cope with that. At least I would know not to vote for them.Gabs2 said:
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"FF43 said:
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.Beibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.1 -
I thought the former was how Jacob R-M managed!kinabalu said:
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.Nigelb said:I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be.
I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...0 -
That was Austria!OldKingCole said:
Heard of a lonely goatherd, but never a lonely shepherd.Nigelb said:
The Swiss have sheep:oldpolitics said:
Neither is Iceland, but it seems to have sheep.StuartDickson said:
Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valais_Blacknose0 -
Indeed. Which is why No Deal is a more final step than Revoke. If in doubt go for the reversible option.Gabs2 said:
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"FF43 said:
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.Beibheirli_C said:
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.0 -
Although given all the work they put into their new ‘baby’ - the massive seat by seat database that predicted surprises like Canterbury and Kensington and got the overall result very close - one can perhaps forgive YouGov churning out its old style polls for paying clients without doing tons of work on the methodology.justin124 said:
Yougov was also the most accurate pollster for the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the 2015 and 2017 General Elections.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.justin124 said:
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.StuartDickson said:Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.0 -
That's quite disgraceful from Katie Hopkins, especially if you look at what preceded the bit she quoted from the BBC report:JosiasJessop said:
It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?Theuniondivvie said:I see KT is getting her alternative facts out there before truth gets its boots on.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1160464653417422848?s=20
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
"He later told local channel TV2 that the attacker had "carried two shotgun-like weapons and a pistol. He broke through a glass door and fired shots."
The gunman, who wore body armour, was overpowered by people at the mosque before police arrived at the scene, Mr Mushtaq added.
Police sources told public broadcaster NRK that several weapons were found inside the mosque, located in the town of Baerum, following the shooting."0 -
And this is why a snap or forced election isn't as terrible a gamble as it might otherwise appear for the Tories. Boris can go toe-to-toe and pound-for-pound with Corbyn on populist policies, is a good communicator, and he starts on +6 approval versus -40 (!) for his main rival. He also has a crystal-clear plan of action, an important factor in elections even when the plan faces significant opposition - a dynamic that got even George Bush re-elected in 2005.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
Unlike 2017, that's an election night I would go into with fascination, rather than dread - while of course being prepared for a freak result!1 -
kjh said:
Now now Malcolm. I can see your smile from here.malcolmg said:
Big Lib Dem surge I seeStuartDickson said:Has HY posted the Scottish sub-sample from the new Opinium yet? No? I’m shocked. And he’s usually so diligent with them. I wonder why?
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
I very much doubt he’s the only smiling Scotsman
On those figures the LibDems keep two seats and Labour one, but it’s the Tories who are wiped out. On Flavible at least.0 -
The area without sheep is bigger than just Switzerland, and appears to be most of the Alps. Perhaps you just can’t count sheep when they are hidden away in the mountains?OldKingCole said:
Heard of a lonely goatherd, but never a lonely shepherd.Nigelb said:
The Swiss have sheep:oldpolitics said:
Neither is Iceland, but it seems to have sheep.StuartDickson said:
Neither are members of the EU.IanB2 said:
The gaps are interesting. I'd have thought there'd be sheep in Norway and Switzerland.ydoethur said:
Shouldn't there be an enormous dot over Strasbourg?IanB2 said:Here's a handy (pre-Brexit) map of where our continent's sheep live:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1114514352709820416
Or are the MEPs in Brussels right now?
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valais_Blacknose0 -
And I bet he was a nightmare.OldKingCole said:I thought the former was how Jacob R-M managed!
"Nanny, my egg is too yolky ... waaaahhh"0 -
Looks like his first day at big school.Theuniondivvie said:Brexit Scientology is upon us.
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1160467448094756864?s=200 -
Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.0 -
Off-topic: no more news on Eno the North Carolina emu on the run.0
-
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few popular things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.0 -
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
The F1 commentator pundit buzz phrase that I find particularly irritating is "on this day in history" to mean "today" or "now".JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Brundle, Coulthard, Webber, they all do it.0 -
Nope. Although the right side of town.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
He’s only been in office a fortnight and our electricity grid has collapsed, the country is swept by ferocious weather despite it still being high summer, and much of the country is in panic about the economic catastrophe that looms before us. Hard to see much in there that will make him more popular with the don’t knows...0 -
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
I suspect that such voters will be increasingly less impressed with his bluster as time moves on. His lack of substance will shine through.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few popular things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Much of the country? You need to travel outside your bubble more. Where they don't blame the PM for the weather. Or the failings of the National Grid (assuming always it wasn't a cyber attack). And the extent of the panic is a slowly shaken head at those metroplitan Chicken Lickens.IanB2 said:
Nope. Although the right side of town.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
He’s only been in office a fortnight and our electricity grid has collapsed, the country is swept by ferocious weather despite it still being high summer, and much of the country is in panic about the economic catastrophe that looms before us. Hard to see much in there that will make him more popular with the don’t knows...0 -
Well, life's a beec....no, stop it.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Boris Johnson the most polular leader of the four national parties. Not something you'd think from the media narrative at the moment...Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39% 1 -
Except there is no Nanny.kinabalu said:
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.Nigelb said:I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be.
I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...
There are those with influence - Fox and Friends, for example - but I think it misguided to believe that anyone is in control of the process.0 -
Says more about the other three really.GIN1138 said:
Boris Johnson the most polular leader of the four national parties. Not something you'd think from the media narrative at the moment...Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
It's like describing Charles Leclerc as the fastest Ferrari driver.1 -
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.Sandpit said:
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.0 -
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
0 -
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
As it’s a phrase which originated with non native English speakers, I think it’s a bit unfair to quibble.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.Sandpit said:
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
0 -
That’s the root of the problem.ydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Well that as may be but if he's more popular then the competition he wins.ydoethur said:
Says more about the other three really.GIN1138 said:
Boris Johnson the most polular leader of the four national parties. Not something you'd think from the media narrative at the moment...Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
It's like describing Charles Leclerc as the fastest Ferrari driver.
And at the end of the day being a winner is the ONLY thing that matters.
0 -
Just like HMQs view on the UKs poitiicans this thread is no longer up to it...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/11/blind-to-justice/#vanilla-comments0 -
The birch for you young manydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Hard one to beetNigelb said:
That’s the root of the problem.ydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
I am pining for youydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Did it? I *think* I first noticed it with British commentators - and Nico Rosberg. Can't remember exactly who was first. For a time I was convinced it was some sort of competition to get it onto the air as many times as possible,Nigelb said:
As it’s a phrase which originated with non native English speakers, I think it’s a bit unfair to quibble.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.Sandpit said:
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.0 -
Three goes in a row? You must be bark-ing.malcolmg said:
I am pining for youydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
And New Thread0 -
You’ve out of the woods - I regard that as a beet surrender.malcolmg said:
Hard one to beetNigelb said:
That’s the root of the problem.ydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
0 -
At this level of motorsport, the only thing that really matters is how much money you can bring to the team you race for - unless you’re a Lewis Hamilton or Seb Vettel who get signed as a school kid by an F1 team.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.Sandpit said:
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
Jamie Chadwick now has a development contract with Williams, which alongside her $500k WS prize money should see her into an F2 drive next year. Visser should also be able to get an F2 drive, and hopefully the likes of Powell, Kimilainen and Garcia have a good shout at an FIA F3 or European F3 race seat next season - which will be the acid test of how good these drivers really are.0 -
I am branching out to new threadNigelb said:
You’ve out of the woods - I regard that as a beet surrender.malcolmg said:
Hard one to beetNigelb said:
That’s the root of the problem.ydoethur said:
I refuse to be needled.Nigelb said:
I see you twigged my intent, and deciduoused not to participateydoethur said:
I will leaf that alone as it deserves.Nigelb said:
Makes you pine for @ydoethur and his puns.MarqueeMark said:
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?IanB2 said:
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.MarqueeMark said:
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.justin124 said:
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.Wulfrun_Phil said:Four days ago, we had a thread header as follows: "Another set of PM Johnson approval ratings has him in deep negative territory"
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%0 -
Money is important, but what matters as much is who your management is. Nicolas Todt, for instance. I wonder what connections he has with F1?Sandpit said:
At this level of motorsport, the only thing that really matters is how much money you can bring to the team you race for - unless you’re a Lewis Hamilton or Seb Vettel who get signed as a school kid by an F1 team.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.Sandpit said:
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
Jamie Chadwick now has a development contract with Williams, which alongside her $500k WS prize money should see her into an F2 drive next year. Visser should also be able to get an F2 drive, and hopefully the likes of Powell, Kimilainen and Garcia have a good shout at an FIA F3 or European F3 race seat next season - which will be the acid test of how good these drivers really are. 0
