Just go the whole hog and nominate Jared O'Mara, on the grounds that he's an Independent who's said he'll resign as an MP soon so is no threat to anyone.
They need someone to go to Brussels and ask for an extension, they don't want the thing to fall apart at the last minute because their PM doesn't show up...
This was the initial tactic against Trump and bannon too, portraying bannon as the puppet master annoyed the hell out of trump and contributed to his eventual firing of him. Seen as trying to upstage the boss. Cummings could go the same way, Boris won't want to look like he is nothing more than a puppet.
The other way of looking at this is that Boris can go full tilt at the No Deal thing while looking like it's all Cummings's idea, then if it looks like it's going pear-shaped he can fire Cummings and put someone else in. That makes it easier to get support back from people he's alienated with the current approach.
He also gets to fire Gove if his No Deal planning doesn't quite pan out.
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Politically yes but economical no
There you go then... decision made.
Oh that it was so easy
It is. Just do not give a monkeys about the politicians or their careers or their parties.
Speaking of which, how did your local party take your resignation?
Speaking of all these resignations, I must say that for all we moan I do accept the usefulness of the party system, shared vision and values, to a degree and all that. But you never see the pettier side of partisan behaviour so much as when someone quits that party. Granted you get the inevitable praise from those like me or from political opponents, which must add to the reaction, but you get such petty reactions of 'who cares', 'good riddance' and general questioning of motivation and the like, it's quite unedifying.
I think modelling is useful for prediction, or at least for examining various scenarios and delineating the envelope of realistic possibilities. The alternative is guesswork and gut feel.
I guess it is my operational research background that makes me favour modelling.
Good models need: a) good base data (I have that by constituency. Results for last four elections, detailed demographics, remain/leave). Unfortunately I don't have local council makeup which is an indicator of activist base. b) good current polling data. I favour an exponential moving average to smooth out noise and MOEs. c) critically, explicit assumptions on voter behaviour to drive how the polling data changes the base data.
Baxter and Flavible have very simple explicit assumptions (though Flavible does not disclose the weighting).
What I'd really l like is a toolkit with which I could try a combination of assumptions which mirror plausible voting behaviour by different types of people in varying constituency contexts. Perhaps that is what the sophisticated YouGov model does?
I think modelling is useful for prediction, or at least for examining various scenarios and delineating the envelope of realistic possibilities. The alternative is guesswork and gut feel.
I guess it is my operational research background that makes me favour modelling.
Good models need: a) good base data (I have that by constituency. Results for last four elections, detailed demographics, remain/leave). Unfortunately I don't have local council makeup which is an indicator of activist base. b) good current polling data. I favour an exponential moving average to smooth out noise and MOEs. c) critically, explicit assumptions on voter behaviour to drive how the polling data changes the base data.
Baxter and Flavible have very simple explicit assumptions (though Flavible does not disclose the weighting).
What I'd really l like is a toolkit with which I could try a combination of assumptions which mirror plausible voting behaviour by different types of people in varying constituency contexts. Perhaps that is what the sophisticated YouGov model does?
Yours look very sophisticated. A very simple one I was thinking was to take: 1. The constituency swings in the Euro Elections from the GE2017 2. Apply that to each of the HoC seats. E.g. apply SW London to all seats in SW London.
Admittedly not very sophisticated, but better than UNS where , in theory, you are applying the same swing to the BXP in Boston and in Richmond or Hampstead.
Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.
But maybe you should add the LD vote with the Green votes because they may not contest in the same seat and the most likely sitting MP will be a Tory. If the campaign name is Unite to Remain, some Labour voters could alos join in, say, Richmond, London.
On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
I would encourage anyone who is stopped and searched to take their own video, and with smartphones as ubiquitous as they are this is easily done. Police should encourage this too.
Police already carry body cameras
Yes, but the communities in question do not trust the police, so having the police encourage them to take their own video should provide reassurance.
One reason so many youngsters carry knives is that they do not trust the police to defend them, and being armed is seen as a protection for them and their friends.
I disagree with that view, but then I am a fiftysomething white professional. The working class experience of policing (whatever ethnicity) tends to be rather different.
It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
Adonis used to be a Lib Dem. He switched to Labour when it was politically convenient for him to do so having lined up a post as one of Blair's inner circle, and up to now that has paid off for him. There must be a high likelihood that he will switch back to the Lib Dems in the near future.
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD voters
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!
Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.
But maybe you should add the LD vote with the Green votes because they may not contest in the same seat and the most likely sitting MP will be a Tory. If the campaign name is Unite to Remain, some Labour voters could alos join in, say, Richmond, London.
In reality, I expect more Green voters to switch back to Labour - particularly if the pattern seen in the Opinium poll continues.
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD voters
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!
Well Hartlepool has been a Tory seat!
Roger does rather like to play into his role, but on the one time I have met him it was in a pub prior to the 2015 election. He seemed quite at home there, albeit drinking the wine rather than draught ales. I imagine that he would be fine in a Hartlepool pub.
Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.
It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
I would encourage anyone who is stopped and searched to take their own video, and with smartphones as ubiquitous as they are this is easily done. Police should encourage this too.
Police already carry body cameras
Yes, but the communities in question do not trust the police, so having the police encourage them to take their own video should provide reassurance.
One reason so many youngsters carry knives is that they do not trust the police to defend them, and being armed is seen as a protection for them and their friends.
I disagree with that view, but then I am a fiftysomething white professional. The working class experience of policing (whatever ethnicity) tends to be rather different.
Care does need taking though: any 'evidence' given from citizens' recordings should be given in full and unedited: media organisations should ensure they're not taken in by ten or fifteen seconds' snippets that set a narrative before the police have a chance to investigate, yet alone respond.
I doubt Johnson cares whether Cummings is the story or not. He just wants to be PM and pretending to be Churchill. Trump has always been obsessive about being seen to be totally in charge and taking all the decisions. Both men are totally self-obsessed to the exclusion of all else, but that manifests itself in very different ways.
Ironically I get the sense that Trump does not get to make any important decisions. I think they have found a way to keep him away from all that whilst allowing him plenty of 'being the Big Man' time, thus keeping him happy. It's unusual but necessity is the mother of invention.
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
I don't think we should get too hung up on a single subsample from a single poll but Kelly, formerly of this parish used to publish a rolling average Scottish subsample though I haven't seen it about on his site recently. I think subsample averages can be informative - it's what alerted me to the SNP2015geddon.
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote.
Plus Electoral Calculus reflects the rise of third parties as much as the pollsters if they get a big enough swing
I'm not sure about tactical voting. There's plenty of evidence that in 2017 voters primary motive was to vote against Mrs May's Conservatives rather than for a particular opposition party. The next election if it's soon is likely to see anti Tory/Johnson voting on an unprecedented scale. Where that'll take you is difficult to predict.
Actually that is likely to be less true, only 31% of Remainers back Corbyn over Boris as next PM but 69% of Leavers back Boris over Corbyn as best PM, in fact Boris is more likely to win back former Brexit Party voters on polling day than Corbyn is to win back LD voters
Despite talking about an amorphous mass it's always surprising how voters end up getting what they least don't want. (Binary referendum notwithstanding). The polls show that an overwheming majority (70% approximately) don't want Johnson's proto fascists to be the next government so I suspect they'll find a way to prevent it*
The same might apply to Corbyn's Labour though that appears less obvious particularly as part of a coalition.
"proto fascists" - lol! I reckon Boris is more socially liberal than your good self, Roger. I can at least imagine HIM sitting down for a pint with the working class in Hartlepool!
Well Hartlepool has been a Tory seat!
Roger does rather like to play into his role, but on the one time I have met him it was in a pub prior to the 2015 election. He seemed quite at home there, albeit drinking the wine rather than draught ales. I imagine that he would be fine in a Hartlepool pub.
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
I doubt Johnson cares whether Cummings is the story or not. He just wants to be PM and pretending to be Churchill. Trump has always been obsessive about being seen to be totally in charge and taking all the decisions. Both men are totally self-obsessed to the exclusion of all else, but that manifests itself in very different ways.
Ironically I get the sense that Trump does not get to make any important decisions. I think they have found a way to keep him away from all that whilst allowing him plenty of 'being the Big Man' time, thus keeping him happy. It's unusual but necessity is the mother of invention.
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Agreed. He has no interest in details, but the idea that he doesn’t throw his weight around on policy (however erratically) is ridiculous. The rapid turnover in multiple cabinet posts ought to be a clue to that.
Given that Trump’s personal lawyer/Attorney General and his Justice Department were in charge of Epstein’s incarceration, why would anyone trust Barr to conduct an enquiry into the alleged suicide ?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/10/jeffrey-epstein-death-conspiracy-theories-1456309 ...But it was immediately clear that many people would not regard an inquiry overseen by Barr as credible. His handling of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the president and Russian election interference left many people, including most congressional Democrats, convinced he see his role not as defending rule of law, or the executive branch broadly, but President Donald Trump’s personal interests.
“AG lied to us about the Mueller report in order to protect his boss, Trump. He was in charge of Epstein’s care. And we’re just supposed to trust him on this as news breaks that Mar-a-Lago was a site for trafficking,” wrote Neera Tanden, head of the liberal Center for American Progress, on Twitter.
“We have to ask who stood to gain from his permanent silence,” said Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Tribe. “Who could he have incriminated in an effort to win favorable treatment from the Trump Justice Department?” He demanded that Barr recuse himself from “overseeing an inquiry that cuts this close to the bone.”...
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.
On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
I thought we all agreed the root cause to the supply issue was the demand. Posh coke heads fuelling it. Like, erm...
On the topic of Stop and Search I respect the reason why May chose to restrict it. It was one of the few times she wasn't authoritarian and I respect that.
However given the endemic of fatal knife crime giving the powers back to the Police seems sensible. But there can't be a return to racial profiling and abuse.
I don't think as we are now the solution is not using stop and search. The solution is to not abuse it and the best way to ensure that is to ensure ALL officers with this power are wearing body cams. No body cam, no stop and search.
If the powers are abused body cams should show evidence of that and it can be tackled. If it's not abused then job done and hopefully lives saved.
I thought we all agreed the root cause to the supply issue was the demand. Posh coke heads fuelling it. Like, erm...
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.
Carried on with joint simulation exercises with S Korea I think
Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.
Yougov was also the most accurate pollster for the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the 2015 and 2017 General Elections.
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.
This is now bugging me because I can't remember what it was, but there was something recently that the armed forces did that he clearly wasn't happy about and it came over as very odd. He clearly wasn't in the loop as you would have thought he would have been.
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.
Carried on with joint simulation exercises with S Korea I think
All very well and seat predictors will never be 100% accurate but they are likely to be not too far off as are at least 1 or 2 polls they draw data from.
Overemphasing tactical voting is also not wise as most voters are not that politically astute, they will vote for the party they support or have always supported, only a minority of generally highly educated voters will tactically vote
I probably agree with your point re tactical voting, but haven't you missed the whole point of the article otherwise.
There is rarely a point that HY doesn't miss. He simply posts whatever factoid best suits his preconceptions without thinking about the article or preceding arguments at all.
Patronising as ever, not that your 'superior analysis' has ever proved of much use
The point is HYFUD that is exactly what you have done. Your response was to apply UNS once again. Now you may be right and that maybe is what is going to happen, BUT that wasn't the point of the article or what Ian or I were discussing.
You just ignored the whole point of the discussion. You didn't respond to it in anyway at all. You didn't even argue against it.
You just ignored it as if it wasn't there.
What is the point in a discussion if you just ignore what others are saying.
Nothing to ignore, you believe UNS sh
The evidence for the potential for widespread tactical voting is the 40% Labour got in 2017.
When Corbyn had a significantly higher favourable rating than he does now
His ratings improved during the campaign if I recall correctly. The Tories had a huge polling lead and lost it. Why? Because millions of voters wanted to stop the Tories winning. I would not rule that out happening again. I think it is less likely, but I would definitely not rule it out. In all the polls from all the companies anti-No Deal parties are on 50%+.
The Tories lost their poll lead because of the dementia tax, hunting restoration etc. There was little difference between Remainer tactical voting at the beginning or end of the campaign and Corbyn is still polling lower than he was at the beginning of the 2017 campaign.
In Opinium today Tories plus Brexit Party are more than Labour plus LDs plus Greens anyway
The big difference is that BJ is a communicator..TM was not
If Trump wasn't making decisions, they wouldn't be in an accelerating trade war with China.
Yes perhaps he gets to have a bit of 'decision making' cosplay there. But it would surprise me if he is the driving force behind the policy. I am strongly biased against him TBF. It is difficult for me to envisage him being capable of anything coherent that has any level of complexity.
I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be. I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
It would be completely legitimate to leave the EU on the basis of a manifesto pledge. More so than a referendum in fact.
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
It would be completely legitimate to leave the EU on the basis of a manifesto pledge. More so than a referendum in fact.
Absolutely. Labours excellent manifesto of 83 called for such a thing.
I don't think we should get too hung up on a single subsample from a single poll but Kelly, formerly of this parish used to publish a rolling average Scottish subsample though I haven't seen it about on his site recently. I think subsample averages can be informative - it's what alerted me to the SNP2015geddon.
The striking thing is that you would struggle now to get a quarter of Scots to support a no deal Brexit. Thoughts go back to the poll tax debacle that kick started the SNP.
The question must now be what do the Scottish conservatives mps do? To vote for bj is to vote to lose their job maybe very quickly. I don’t see conservative head office being able to dictate to the Scottish conservatives to pick hard leaver candidates when Ruth is fundamentally opposed to it. The only option I can no longer see happening is brexit though a hard leave. It will be Exit only.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
Given that Trump’s personal lawyer/Attorney General and his Justice Department were in charge of Epstein’s incarceration, why would anyone trust Barr to conduct an enquiry into the alleged suicide ?
Some curious links there - Barr used to work for Epstein's law firm, and Barr's father hired Epstein as a schoolteacher in the 70s (even though he was only 20, and had no relevant experience or education).
I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be. I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
I could cope with that. At least I would know not to vote for them.
I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be. I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...
The problem is no one has found a parliamentary path to either stopping no deal or of course revoke which is the polar opposite of no deal. Both would be catastrophic
Lots of speculation but no one knows how to deal with this
Are they both equally catastrophic? Revoke would at least not disrupt business and the economy.
Also revoke can be unrevoked. It's not easy to redeal a No Deal.
If Revoke happened, I fully expect the Tory Party to go into the next election on a platform of leaving the EU without a fuether referendum. "Why bother with one if the politicians don't listen to the results?"
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
Indeed. Which is why No Deal is a more final step than Revoke. If in doubt go for the reversible option.
Can’t remember even seeing a PC/Green/Hermon prediction on Baxter.
Flavibile is a spotty student in a bedsit and regularly predicts the Lib Dems sweeping screeds of Scottish seats from 3rd place. I’ll pay attention when the site owner needs to buy a razor.
Whilst Yougov is much better for them, today's Opinium has the LibDems at 13% - the vote share polled by David Steel's Liberals in 1979 and well below their performances at both 1974 elections.When allowance is made for number of seats contested, it would be less impressive than their 1964 result.
In the most recent test of polling companies' accuracy, the 2019 Euro elections, Opinium overstated the Labour vote share by 3.4% and understated the Lib Dem vote share by 4.6%.
Yougov was also the most accurate pollster for the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the 2015 and 2017 General Elections.
Although given all the work they put into their new ‘baby’ - the massive seat by seat database that predicted surprises like Canterbury and Kensington and got the overall result very close - one can perhaps forgive YouGov churning out its old style polls for paying clients without doing tons of work on the methodology.
It would depend on the exact context of what the police sources said, but surely a more logical conclusion is that the weapons found inside the mosque belonged to the shooter?
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
That's quite disgraceful from Katie Hopkins, especially if you look at what preceded the bit she quoted from the BBC report:
"He later told local channel TV2 that the attacker had "carried two shotgun-like weapons and a pistol. He broke through a glass door and fired shots."
The gunman, who wore body armour, was overpowered by people at the mosque before police arrived at the scene, Mr Mushtaq added.
Police sources told public broadcaster NRK that several weapons were found inside the mosque, located in the town of Baerum, following the shooting."
And this is why a snap or forced election isn't as terrible a gamble as it might otherwise appear for the Tories. Boris can go toe-to-toe and pound-for-pound with Corbyn on populist policies, is a good communicator, and he starts on +6 approval versus -40 (!) for his main rival. He also has a crystal-clear plan of action, an important factor in elections even when the plan faces significant opposition - a dynamic that got even George Bush re-elected in 2005.
Unlike 2017, that's an election night I would go into with fascination, rather than dread - while of course being prepared for a freak result!
Heard of a lonely goatherd, but never a lonely shepherd.
The area without sheep is bigger than just Switzerland, and appears to be most of the Alps. Perhaps you just can’t count sheep when they are hidden away in the mountains?
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few popular things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
The F1 commentator pundit buzz phrase that I find particularly irritating is "on this day in history" to mean "today" or "now".
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?
Nope. Although the right side of town.
He’s only been in office a fortnight and our electricity grid has collapsed, the country is swept by ferocious weather despite it still being high summer, and much of the country is in panic about the economic catastrophe that looms before us. Hard to see much in there that will make him more popular with the don’t knows...
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few popular things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
I suspect that such voters will be increasingly less impressed with his bluster as time moves on. His lack of substance will shine through.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Arf. Bet it wasn't in Poplar though?
Nope. Although the right side of town.
He’s only been in office a fortnight and our electricity grid has collapsed, the country is swept by ferocious weather despite it still being high summer, and much of the country is in panic about the economic catastrophe that looms before us. Hard to see much in there that will make him more popular with the don’t knows...
Much of the country? You need to travel outside your bubble more. Where they don't blame the PM for the weather. Or the failings of the National Grid (assuming always it wasn't a cyber attack). And the extent of the panic is a slowly shaken head at those metroplitan Chicken Lickens.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
I can’t, either. That doesn’t mean he is unable to make decisions, however uninformed or damaging they might be. I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
I'm thinking something like how a capricious child is managed by Nanny. Can certainly make decisions but ways are found to mitigate and distract. Especially on matters to do with the military.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...
Except there is no Nanny. There are those with influence - Fox and Friends, for example - but I think it misguided to believe that anyone is in control of the process.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
As it’s a phrase which originated with non native English speakers, I think it’s a bit unfair to quibble.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
As it’s a phrase which originated with non native English speakers, I think it’s a bit unfair to quibble.
Did it? I *think* I first noticed it with British commentators - and Nico Rosberg. Can't remember exactly who was first. For a time I was convinced it was some sort of competition to get it onto the air as many times as possible,
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
At this level of motorsport, the only thing that really matters is how much money you can bring to the team you race for - unless you’re a Lewis Hamilton or Seb Vettel who get signed as a school kid by an F1 team.
Jamie Chadwick now has a development contract with Williams, which alongside her $500k WS prize money should see her into an F2 drive next year. Visser should also be able to get an F2 drive, and hopefully the likes of Powell, Kimilainen and Garcia have a good shout at an FIA F3 or European F3 race seat next season - which will be the acid test of how good these drivers really are.
Many 'Don't Knows' for Johnson. Over time they tend to shift to the Disapprove column. At the moment, he still has novelty - despite already being a celebrity - but that is likely to be a wasting asset.
As long as he does not somehow to contrive to surprise on the downside, I'd expect those Don't Knows to go for Johnson. His enemies in the media have set expectation management at Fifth Horseman levels for him. If he's just OK, does a few poplar things, he'll be fine with Joe Voter.
He always did like being photographed planting trees. I have one of me doing it with him.
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
Ha, hadn’t noticed that before. There’s a lot of people around WS with F1 backgrounds in the various aspects of human performance though, so it’s probably something they’ve been taught in media training classes. I guess they want to initially agree with a journalist asking a question, and that phrasing works for them, many of whom are not speaking their native language.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Yes, 'For sure' has been in F1 for years. I think Red Bull / Ferrari were particularly bad for it, but the commentarors also use it when asked questions by each other.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
At this level of motorsport, the only thing that really matters is how much money you can bring to the team you race for - unless you’re a Lewis Hamilton or Seb Vettel who get signed as a school kid by an F1 team.
Jamie Chadwick now has a development contract with Williams, which alongside her $500k WS prize money should see her into an F2 drive next year. Visser should also be able to get an F2 drive, and hopefully the likes of Powell, Kimilainen and Garcia have a good shout at an FIA F3 or European F3 race seat next season - which will be the acid test of how good these drivers really are.
Money is important, but what matters as much is who your management is. Nicolas Todt, for instance. I wonder what connections he has with F1?
Comments
Result.....
I guess it is my operational research background that makes me favour modelling.
Good models need:
a) good base data (I have that by constituency. Results for last four elections, detailed demographics, remain/leave). Unfortunately I don't have local council makeup which is an indicator of activist base.
b) good current polling data. I favour an exponential moving average to smooth out noise and MOEs.
c) critically, explicit assumptions on voter behaviour to drive how the polling data changes the base data.
Baxter and Flavible have very simple explicit assumptions (though Flavible does not disclose the weighting).
What I'd really l like is a toolkit with which I could try a combination of assumptions which mirror plausible voting behaviour by different types of people in varying constituency contexts. Perhaps that is what the sophisticated YouGov model does?
But do we have the balls?
1. The constituency swings in the Euro Elections from the GE2017
2. Apply that to each of the HoC seats. E.g. apply SW London to all seats in SW London.
Admittedly not very sophisticated, but better than UNS where , in theory, you are applying the same swing to the BXP in Boston and in Richmond or Hampstead.
One reason so many youngsters carry knives is that they do not trust the police to defend them, and being armed is seen as a protection for them and their friends.
I disagree with that view, but then I am a fiftysomething white professional. The working class experience of policing (whatever ethnicity) tends to be rather different.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1160510299977539584
ISTR it is the sort of phraseology used in the immediate aftermath of other shootings ...
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1160510299977539584
Note that there are no sheep in Denmark and almost none in Sweden and Finland. Lamb is not a popular dish in those countries.
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1160504941909356544?s=20
SNP 44%
SCon 20%
SLab 18%
SLD 8%
Grn 5%
Bxp 4%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1160467448094756864?s=20
Given their membership, it would become a pillar of party identity.
He has no interest in details, but the idea that he doesn’t throw his weight around on policy (however erratically) is ridiculous.
The rapid turnover in multiple cabinet posts ought to be a clue to that.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/10/jeffrey-epstein-death-conspiracy-theories-1456309
...But it was immediately clear that many people would not regard an inquiry overseen by Barr as credible. His handling of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the president and Russian election interference left many people, including most congressional Democrats, convinced he see his role not as defending rule of law, or the executive branch broadly, but President Donald Trump’s personal interests.
“AG lied to us about the Mueller report in order to protect his boss, Trump. He was in charge of Epstein’s care. And we’re just supposed to trust him on this as news breaks that Mar-a-Lago was a site for trafficking,” wrote Neera Tanden, head of the liberal Center for American Progress, on Twitter.
“We have to ask who stood to gain from his permanent silence,” said Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Tribe. “Who could he have incriminated in an effort to win favorable treatment from the Trump Justice Department?” He demanded that Barr recuse himself from “overseeing an inquiry that cuts this close to the bone.”...
I'm thinking British Vice Consul in Yining City would be a suitable next career move for him, and that will be easier if we're truly global.
Half a week is a long time in politics. Today's Opinium leader approval ratings are:
Johnson: Approve 40%, Disapprove 34%
Corbyn: Approve 20%, Disapprove 60%
Swinson: Approve 21%, Disapprove 30%
Farage: Approve 32%, Disapprove 39%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valais_Blacknose
Can any one remind me what it was? It is very annoying.
I’ve little doubt a large amount of policy goes on behind his back, but as we’ve seem on numerous occasions, any direct challenge to his wishes results in dismissal.
The question must now be what do the Scottish conservatives mps do? To vote for bj is to vote to lose their job maybe very quickly. I don’t see conservative head office being able to dictate to the Scottish conservatives to pick hard leaver candidates when Ruth is fundamentally opposed to it. The only option I can no longer see happening is brexit though a hard leave. It will be Exit only.
A good comparison would be Caligula. Although unfortunately there were less checks and balances in his case. Appointing a horse to a key position would not be possible for the Donald. Mind you, looking at some of the appointments he HAS made ...
"He later told local channel TV2 that the attacker had "carried two shotgun-like weapons and a pistol. He broke through a glass door and fired shots."
The gunman, who wore body armour, was overpowered by people at the mosque before police arrived at the scene, Mr Mushtaq added.
Police sources told public broadcaster NRK that several weapons were found inside the mosque, located in the town of Baerum, following the shooting."
Unlike 2017, that's an election night I would go into with fascination, rather than dread - while of course being prepared for a freak result!
I very much doubt he’s the only smiling Scotsman
On those figures the LibDems keep two seats and Labour one, but it’s the Tories who are wiped out. On Flavible at least.
"Nanny, my egg is too yolky ... waaaahhh"
Just watching the run-up to the W Series motor racing, and yet again I'm hearing racing drivers starting replies with 'For sure ...'
It's a verbal tic that's been around in F1 for years, and it either has to be a joke, or the result of some form of moronic and robotic media training.
One of the huge advantages of the WS setup is that there’s no teams, so a lot fewer people are needed to work with the car itself. This has freed up budget for the aforementioned personal trainers, physiotherapists, nutritionists, media trainers etc, which are rarely seen at this level. Most are from a company called Hinsta Performance, who also work with a lot of the F1 teams.
Brundle, Coulthard, Webber, they all do it.
He’s only been in office a fortnight and our electricity grid has collapsed, the country is swept by ferocious weather despite it still being high summer, and much of the country is in panic about the economic catastrophe that looms before us. Hard to see much in there that will make him more popular with the don’t knows...
There are those with influence - Fox and Friends, for example - but I think it misguided to believe that anyone is in control of the process.
It's like describing Charles Leclerc as the fastest Ferrari driver.
It's weird. I now mentally change it to 'To be sure' in an Irish accent, which makes me smile.
On the whole, I've enjoyed W Series. I was not a fan of Jamie Chadwick in junior formulae, but her GT championship win and other performances have been impressive. And the fact she's used to F3 cars, and is being pressed by women who have not, shows that the standards are reasonable.
I'd like to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell have at least a chance to test an F1 car. I've fancied Powell (as a driver, I hasten to add) for years. She's a classic example of the way women hit a glass wall when trying to go into higher formulae. She's won two championships, and yet essentially got dropped the year after winning Asian Formula Renault.
And at the end of the day being a winner is the ONLY thing that matters.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/11/blind-to-justice/#vanilla-comments
And New Thread
Jamie Chadwick now has a development contract with Williams, which alongside her $500k WS prize money should see her into an F2 drive next year. Visser should also be able to get an F2 drive, and hopefully the likes of Powell, Kimilainen and Garcia have a good shout at an FIA F3 or European F3 race seat next season - which will be the acid test of how good these drivers really are.