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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T ex

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521
    Anorak said:

    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Do you think the IRA would be justified in killing people, if Brexit finally takes place?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    RobD said:

    I’ll have you know that I actually agreed with the statement that contradicted your earlier post. :smiley::p
    I'm not at all sure that I have ever said that customs posts were banned under the GFA. Not today (although I look forward to you producing the posts when I indeed did do this) nor in the three headers I wrote on the subject for PB.
  • This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.

    The only way you get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland is if it has support in both communities. There is majority support for the backstop. I am afraid that’s not a lie, it’s a fact. Just because you believe people in Northern Ireland are sectarian bigots doesn’t mean that they are.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    No. Neither does the sandwich board in fact. But it (the sandwich board) is clearly inciting a row, which in this hypothetical then gets escalated to physical violence. By comparison a short skirt isn't inciting anything
  • What's happened to my 20/20 - When's kick-off???
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited August 2019
    I was taking a break for the day, but I decided to pop back whilst waiting on a delivery.

    Wow!

    This place is fast becoming a showcase for the intolerance of the alt-right. If the country follows PB's lead then in a few weeks I dread to think what state the UK will be in.

    I know many posters put reasonable posts, but the reactions to such posts ...

    Unbelievable!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
  • I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    Of course not, just as wearing a short skirt doesn't. That doesn't change the reality that it would be taken as an aggravating factor by those most offended by the sandwich board.
  • Chris said:

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited August 2019

    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
  • Proroguing Parliament would inflict on the country a policy with no mandate and without support in Parliament with effects that would endure for a generation. It's not "suspending democracy for a few weeks", it's an abandonment of democracy.

    Conversely, the backstop is merely a temporary holding position pending a permanent solution, which headbanging Leavers airily assure us is a trivial matter to resolve. There's nothing permanent about it at all. It was agreed to under a democratically secured mandate and negotiated by a democratically elected government.

    You seem to have no concept of what democracy is.

    You may prioritise this one policy that proroguing Parliament would bring about, but you forget that it will only come about because Parliament voted to make exiting the EU our law that it would occur.

    Any law changes that occur under the backstop won't be approved by Parliament. Give me a democratic justification for that please.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    On Mr Johnson's terms even if that were so, we are still left with 'no deal'
  • Chris said:

    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
  • A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    The giveaway that there's something wonky is that if you had a USD market with the same odds as the UK market you'd have an arb, because you could put pounds on the UK extend/revoke market and dollars on the US No Deal market then end up with the same or more pounds whatever happened. This proves the USD and GBP markets should have different odds.
    You are right. Thankfully I don't bet! The two markets would have to show different odds. But would the "true" odds be somewhere in between the two?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    I was taking a break for the day, but I decided to pop back whilst waiting on a delivery.

    Wow!

    This place is fast becoming a showcase for the intolerance of the alt-right. If the country follows PB's lead then in a few weeks I dread to think what state the UK will be in.

    I know many posters put reasonable posts, but the reactions to such posts ...

    Unbelievable!

    It's time to stop singing and start swinging... Malcolm X
  • Anorak said:

    Of course not, just as wearing a short skirt doesn't. That doesn't change the reality that it would be taken as an aggravating factor by those most offended by the sandwich board.
    That's on them then.

    Just as wearing a short skirt is an aggravating factor for some rapists. Don't victim blame.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,987

    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,394
    Cyclefree said:

    At the risk of being pompous, I think it is possible to be polite even while disagreeing about politics. Or many other things.

    And to be perfectly honest, in the comments I write what I think ( though not everything that I think) and in the thread headers what I hope will stimulate discussion. I don’t take into account what individual posters think or how they will react.

    (Discussions about Italian coffee and food may be an exception to this rule.)

    Anyway, I wish you and your family well, even if we disagree about politics. Let’s hope we’re both wrong and that Brexit turns out to be less of a problem than feared and that Corbyn does not get to be PM. On this last point I think you and I are in agreement.

    Likewise.

    Thank you.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.
    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
  • You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,987
    Scott_P said:
    Sterling strengthening in support of Corbyn - never thought I'd live to see the day.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    It seems like the UK is refusing to negotiate about including the backstop and the EU is refusing to negotiate about excluding the backstop. Everyone is being stubborn idiots.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    You may prioritise this one policy that proroguing Parliament would bring about, but you forget that it will only come about because Parliament voted to make exiting the EU our law that it would occur.

    Any law changes that occur under the backstop won't be approved by Parliament. Give me a democratic justification for that please.
    They form part of a short-term transition and the price of smoothness, something particularly important to the smaller party, is conforming to the larger party's terms in that short-term transition in specific areas. That is normal and was mandated by a general election result in which the governing party campaigned for a smooth transition on a deal.

    Meanwhile, you are prepared to inflict your own preferred and far-reaching outcome with no mandate and against all principles of democracy.
  • That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
  • I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    Well it's no wonder you're picking the EU side. Some of us true brits like our red-lines and negotiating stance. It's clear to us that it is the EU that is refusing to negotiate - which is pretty much what Gove said and it scrolling across the ticker for all to note and pick their side.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    Ireland is a pain in the bum. Always has been.
  • DougSeal said:

    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,163
    Very sombre day in the Tour of Poland following the death of Bjorg Lambrecht yesterday. The race was neutralised and each team took it in turns to lead the procession. The final few kilos had Lambrecht's team Lotto Soudal leading. The whole peloton stopped for a minute's silence just before the finishing line. A very well organised ceremony.
  • A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
    That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    It makes sense for anyone concerned about the value of GBP under the two scenarios. Even if you are UK based. The point I was trying to make was that it was mistaken to view the odds as skewed by the exchange rate implications of Brexit, because those implications could be hedged against when placing the bet. That is my contention anyway, I might be wrong.

    Apparently Gisela Stuart was in the Cabinet Office today. Is Cummings planning to get the Vote Leave gang together again for one last job?

    "Sorry guvnah. I've gorn straigt. I don't do referendums no more."
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    I find the stance that accepting a handful of standards and trade-specific policies with minimal input is subjugation and makes us supplicants, destroying democracy... quite perplexing. That even one or two product standards imposed on us is the same as the loss of all independent law-making power, let alone multiple product standards and associated bits and pieces.

    Especially as we'd always retain the capability to unilaterally break it, anyway. The EU would not send soldiers and warplanes to enforce it.

    I mean, if you accept that as axiomatic, Philip Thomson's stance is correct and noble - it's just the basic starting point seems rather bizarre to me.
  • I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.

    The other joint Nobel Prize winner would disagree were he alive, as would all those who voted for the Alliance Party in the May Euro elections. The Alliance Party, which is explicitly non-sectarian, got more votes than any of the others, of course.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.
    Your spending time in Australia has nothing to do with it. The fact you are not from Northern Ireland and have no sensitivity (or indeed empathy) whatsoever to the community there has everything to do with it. Your callous attitude is breathtaking.
  • That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.

    Without support in the Unionist community there could be no backstop. But there is support. Hence the rise in the support for the Alliance party.

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    That's on them then.

    Just as wearing a short skirt is an aggravating factor for some rapists. Don't victim blame.
    Exactly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    So is it safe to assume someone has now told him there won't be a transition period if we leave without a deal?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
  • DougSeal said:

    Your spending time in Australia has nothing to do with it. The fact you are not from Northern Ireland and have no sensitivity (or indeed empathy) whatsoever to the community there has everything to do with it. Your callous attitude is breathtaking.
    I'm callous for agreeing with Lord Trimble?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    Sterling strengthening in support of Corbyn - never thought I'd live to see the day.
    Everything's relative.
  • Without support in the Unionist community there could be no backstop. But there is support. Hence the rise in the support for the Alliance party.

    Its not supported by the Unionist community and you know it. A higher proportion of Scots back Brexit than Unionists back the backstop.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.
    Staying in the UK is winner takes all and is a bigger decision than the backstop. Why not just replicate the constitutional question situation: either side gets to call for a poll on it whenever it looks like a majority exists to change things?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    RobD said:

    The proprietor if Wings would like a word with you, amongst others.....
    He has already said he will return on independence thoughb
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Scott_P said:

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
    Remainers, like me, should be careful;'the vast majority of the Press will happily swallow this.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
    You think the EU is blameless?
  • Gabs2 said:

    Staying in the UK is winner takes all and is a bigger decision than the backstop. Why not just replicate the constitutional question situation: either side gets to call for a poll on it whenever it looks like a majority exists to change things?
    Because staying in the UK is not winner takes all, that was the point of the GFA. People can be in NI, call themselves Irish, have Irish citizenship etc, etc

    What was agreed with the GFA is that whether NI is UK or Eire is a matter to be determined democratically but in the meantime we will have cross-border co-operation and compromise.

    So lets have a solution based on cross-border co-operation and compromise. If there is a smuggling problem we can fight the same way we fight tobacco or alcohol smuggling. Not have one community compel the other.
  • Chris said:

    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    ydoethur said:

    We'll skim over that.
    what that the best you curd come up with
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Cyclefree said:

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Gabs2 said:

    It seems like the UK is refusing to negotiate about including the backstop and the EU is refusing to negotiate about excluding the backstop. Everyone is being stubborn idiots.
    The anti-democratic, vassalage backstop that is so appallingly humiliating for the UK that Johnson and many of his colleagues voted in favour of it at MV3.
  • malcolmg said:

    He has already said he will return on independence thoughb
    It's all well and good having people returning - what are you gonna do about the mass exodus - basket case iScot will see a brain drain like nothing seen on earth before.
  • Its not supported by the Unionist community and you know it. A higher proportion of Scots back Brexit than Unionists back the backstop.

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

  • The anti-democratic, vassalage backstop that is so appallingly humiliating for the UK that Johnson and many of his colleagues voted in favour of it at MV3.
    I for one opposed it at MV3. I have been consistent.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,987
    Chris said:

    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
  • Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
  • Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    There's nothing stopping the EU from changing their stance and to start negotiating.

    They're going to give us the punishment beating Bozo himself warned of.

    We'll survive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859

    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.

    Apparently the EU secretariat doesn't know how to take dictation.

    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1158720819364806659
  • Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    Give it time. We need them to look into the whites of our eyes and know that we are serious. The mounting panic now from those who start to believe this could seriously happen shows the plan is working.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Chris said:

    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    The EU knew May had to get the deal approved by Parliament before it was ratified, so it was never a done deal. They also know that Parliament rejected it three times. Gove is definitely not a dimwit and, in this case, I don't believe he's being dishonest.
  • Chris said:

    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    The deal was rejected again since then. The government has been replaced since then.

    The horse is dead. Do you want to keep flogging a dead horse or move on?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    Ah yes. Maybe that's it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
    I fear you are right. And I suspect that in those circumstances, Johnson will do as you suspect, or at least many of his supporters will. And he won't discourage them. There will be crocodile tears, but that's about all.
  • Chris said:

    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
    They did in April. We are now trying to get them to change what they stated in April yet won't compromise on anything to allow negotiations to begin..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited August 2019

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Chris said:

    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
    I really hope not. I really do.

    It really is time for all politicians to tone down the rhetoric and try and come up with solutions. We should not be fighting, even rhetorically, with countries so close to us, in every sense.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    The deal was rejected again since then. The government has been replaced since then.

    The horse is dead. Do you want to keep flogging a dead horse or move on?
    That people are incapable of understanding a very simple point expressed in plain English might be frustrating.

    But on the other hand, in a sense, it's useful to be constantly reminded how stupid extreme Brexiteers really are.
  • The EU knew May had to get the deal approved by Parliament before it was ratified, so it was never a done deal. They also know that Parliament rejected it three times. Gove is definitely not a dimwit and, in this case, I don't believe he's being dishonest.

    The great news is that No Deal will be no problem. Michael’s changed his mind about that one.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
    Isn't there polling to that effect? And All-Ireland sports teams are now the norm, except in soccer. Even, and I stand to be corrected, golf.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
  • eek said:

    They did in April. We are now trying to get them to change what they stated in April yet won't compromise on anything to allow negotiations to begin..
    April's negotiation was not in good faith. The backstop is not in good faith.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm sure Gove isn't surprised but this is a poker game and you've obviously never played.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    NI citizens are permitted to vote - in Westminster and in Stormont (when it is sitting) - elections.

    No-one is suggesting that those votes be taken away.
  • Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
    Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by MEPs at the European Parliament. Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by countries in the European Council.

    It doesn't matter how big or how small an election is. Telling a community they must abide by the outcome of elections but can't vote in them, while elections continue for other communities is utterly, utterly unacceptable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    You think the EU is blameless?
    Another delusion proposed by hardcore Brexiteers is that ALL Remainers love the EU, we all don't! The alternative as proposed by Mssrs. Johnson and Farage is considerably worse, to the point of insanity in fact.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859

    I'm sure Gove isn't surprised but this is a poker game and you've obviously never played.

    With that in mind, how do you read the headlines about the EU coming away from the meeting with David Frost saying that No Deal is Boris Johnson's "central scenario", something he has called a "one in a million chance"?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited August 2019

    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
    As an Englishman, I'd vote for that
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    April's negotiation was not in good faith. The backstop is not in good faith.
    The backstop is in good faith - if you can't see what it gives us for free which other countries don't have you need to reread the agreement.

  • Cyclefree said:

    NI citizens are permitted to vote - in Westminster and in Stormont (when it is sitting) - elections.

    No-one is suggesting that those votes be taken away.
    Good they will be subject to Westminster and Stormont laws, so of course they should vote in Westminster and Stormont elections. Would be unreasonable to be otherwise.

    Will they be subject to laws passed by the European Parliament?

    Will they be able to vote in European Parliament elections?
  • Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by MEPs at the European Parliament. Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by countries in the European Council.

    It doesn't matter how big or how small an election is. Telling a community they must abide by the outcome of elections but can't vote in them, while elections continue for other communities is utterly, utterly unacceptable.

    As stated previously, your belief that the EU is a fully-functioning democracy is a novel one.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    "taking away fundamental rights by democracy" is literally what happened in the Brexit vote. It's why Remainers struggle to "get over it" as we are so frequently told to do.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    malcolmg said:

    what that the best you curd come up with
    These puns are going whey over my head.
  • Yes.

    So they shouldn't be subject to the laws the European Parliament passes without taking part in European Parliamentary Elections right?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    As stated previously, your belief that the EU is a fully-functioning democracy is a novel one.
    I wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say fully-functioning, but what else is the purpose of the European Parliament elections?
This discussion has been closed.