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System · August 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local parties and sitting candidates – the big impediment to MP defectors or electoral pacts

With a possible General Election only a few months away and ongoing talk of MP defections or constituency pacts there’s been little focus on how this happens in practice.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z · August 2019

1nsomnia.

Nigelb · August 2019

That is an interesting wrinkle, which has been touched on in previous threads, but not, I think, discussed in any great detail.

CarlottaVance · August 2019

Third! Like Labour (or the Tories) in GE2019........

CarlottaVance · August 2019

The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......

CarlottaVance · August 2019

Meanwhile the Chinese Renminbi is down 1.5% at the start of trade in Asia.....Trump is evidently still asleep......

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNH:CUR

Or fretting over mental health care for white mass murderers.....

https://twitter.com/JakartaDean/status/1158082553741545472?s=20

CarlottaVance · August 2019

The sage has spoken:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1158221621402001409?s=20

Nigelb · August 2019

CarlottaVance said:
The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......

That would be electoral arithmetic and FPTP which has done that.

CarlottaVance · August 2019

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:
The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......
That would be electoral arithmetic and FPTP which has done that.

Isn't going to make it any easier to sell......."For the common good.....stand aside..."

Streeter · August 2019

CarlottaVance said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:
The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......
That would be electoral arithmetic and FPTP which has done that.
Isn't going to make it any easier to sell......."For the common good.....stand aside..."

Promising to make PR a prerequisite of any confidence and supply deal ought to do it.

Nigelb · August 2019

CarlottaVance said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:
The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......
That would be electoral arithmetic and FPTP which has done that.
Isn't going to make it any easier to sell......."For the common good.....stand aside..."

Such is the two party system; divide and rule.

Morris_Dancer · August 2019

Good morning, everyone.

IanB2 · August 2019

It was a significant issue for the Liberals in the early 1980s when a whole bunch of mostly Labour MPs defected at once. And then later, of course, a share-out of seats with negotiations on every constituency to find slots for a whole raft of aspiring SDP candidates,

It helps somewhat, of course, that many of these seats aren’t winnable. Some LibDem candidates doubtless see standing in their seat as the first step on a very long ladder; others are putting themselves forward as duty or can easily be slotted in somewhere else.

In the 1980s a lot depended on the relations with the MP prior to their defection. Someone like Chuka who has been open, reasonable and friendly with other parties during campaigning is going to be a lot more welcome than someone who has spent their career being tribal and excessively hostile toward their opponents. It didn’t help that some of the Labour MPs were defecting because they were being dumped by their Labour parties mostly for being complacent and useless, and there were some very unhappy liberals around in those seats. Members of course always have the option of going to campaign somewhere else.

There was a lot of HQ strongarming (insofar as that was ever possible in the Liberal Party) and those who stood aside doubtless got a brownie point that they may have cashed in sometime else. As I recall there were only a handful of seats (three?) where arrangements weren’t eventually settled.

The catch 22 for the Tiggers is that where their local LibDems are weak, their chances of re-election are slim, and where they are strong they are less likely to want to step aside. Particularly as at least the glimmer of a chance at the big time might just be in sight.

OldKingCole · August 2019

IanB2 said:
It was a significant issue for the Liberals in the early 1980s when a whole bunch of mostly Labour MPs defected at once. And then later, of course, a share-out of seats with negotiations on every constituency to find slots for a whole raft of aspiring SDP candidates,

It helps somewhat, of course, that many of these seats aren’t winnable. Some LibDem candidates doubtless see standing in their seat as the first step on a very long ladder; others are putting themselves forward as duty or can easily be slotted in somewhere else.

In the 1980s a lot depended on the relations with the MP prior to their defection. Someone like Chuka who has been open, reasonable and friendly with other parties during campaigning is going to be a lot more welcome than someone who has spent their career being tribal and excessively hostile toward their opponents. It didn’t help that some of the Labour MPs were defecting because they were being dumped by their Labour parties mostly for being complacent and useless, and there were some very unhappy liberals around in those seats. Members of course always have the option of going to campaign somewhere else.

There was a lot of HQ strongarming (insofar as that was ever possible in the Liberal Party) and those who stood aside doubtless got a brownie point that they may have cashed in sometime else. As I recall there were only a handful of seats (three?) where arrangements weren’t eventually settled.

The catch 22 for the Tiggers is that where their local LibDems are weak, their chances of re-election are slim, and where they are strong they are less likely to want to step aside. Particularly as at least the glimmer of a chance at the big time might just be in sight.

My recollections exactly, Mr 82. The constancy where I'd been Agent...... unsuccessfully, admittedly...... for the Libs was allocated to the SDP and some 'strangers' took over the electoral organisation. They wanted to do things 'their way' and it was made clear that while our help was welcomed, it was 'their' seat and 'their' campaign. Noses, including mine, were rather put out of joint!

OldKingCole · August 2019

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:
It was a significant issue for the Liberals in the early 1980s when a whole bunch of mostly Labour MPs defected at once. And then later, of course, a share-out of seats with negotiations on every constituency to find slots for a whole raft of aspiring SDP candidates,

It helps somewhat, of course, that many of these seats aren’t winnable. Some LibDem candidates doubtless see standing in their seat as the first step on a very long ladder; others are putting themselves forward as duty or can easily be slotted in somewhere else.

In the 1980s a lot depended on the relations with the MP prior to their defection. Someone like Chuka who has been open, reasonable and friendly with other parties during campaigning is going to be a lot more welcome than someone who has spent their career being tribal and excessively hostile toward their opponents. It didn’t help that some of the Labour MPs were defecting because they were being dumped by their Labour parties mostly for being complacent and useless, and there were some very unhappy liberals around in those seats. Members of course always have the option of going to campaign somewhere else.

There was a lot of HQ strongarming (insofar as that was ever possible in the Liberal Party) and those who stood aside doubtless got a brownie point that they may have cashed in sometime else. As I recall there were only a handful of seats (three?) where arrangements weren’t eventually settled.

The catch 22 for the Tiggers is that where their local LibDems are weak, their chances of re-election are slim, and where they are strong they are less likely to want to step aside. Particularly as at least the glimmer of a chance at the big time might just be in sight.
My recollections exactly, Mr 82. The constancy where I'd been Agent...... unsuccessfully, admittedly...... for the Libs was allocated to the SDP and some 'strangers' took over the electoral organisation. They wanted to do things 'their way' and it was made clear that while our help was welcomed, it was 'their' seat and 'their' campaign. Noses, including mine, were rather put out of joint!

Constancy = constituency. Predictive text strikes again!

SquareRoot · August 2019

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:
The same applies if there is talk that say, your party should stand aside in the seat in favour of another party that has broadly the same approach to the biggest issue of the day, Brexit perhaps. Here again you could find yourself not being the local candidate at the coming election and all the effort you have put in personally counts for nothing.

And Swinson has made clear that the primary beneficiaries of the "Remain Alliance" will be the LibDems.......
That would be electoral arithmetic and FPTP which has done that.
Isn't going to make it any easier to sell......."For the common good.....stand aside..."
Such is the two party system; divide and rule.

I think it would be rather good if no party had a majority for the next decade. The politicians at least deserve the uncertainty.

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

There are at least two reasons to pay attention to this:

https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1158227686134861824?s=21

tlg86 · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:
There are at least two reasons to pay attention to this:

https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1158227686134861824?s=21

Last roll of the dice, do you think this is a game changer for Beto?

Scott_P · August 2019

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1158258150434385921

Scott_P · August 2019

https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712

Theuniondivvie · August 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712

Incoming HYUFD...

IanB2 · August 2019

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...

Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.

Scott_P · August 2019

https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1158261806961483777

Scott_P · August 2019

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1158259465411530754

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
There are at least two reasons to pay attention to this:

https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1158227686134861824?s=21
Last roll of the dice, do you think this is a game changer for Beto?

I don’t know. But it will attract attention and he’s got a connection to the area so he is somewhat protected against accusations of bandwagonning.

Theuniondivvie · August 2019

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.

From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is at least as important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.

JosiasJessop · August 2019

If you want an early-morning laugh, may I point you at the following Spectator article on HS2:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/there-is-a-far-better-option-than-hs2-and-it-already-exists/

In which Ross Clark tries to state that reopening the Great Central Railway would be a cheaper and better way of doing HS2.

Gems such as "But for much of its length the Great Central could be reinstated with little earth-moving, tunnelling and without the need to demolish residential properties or foul sites of special scientific interest." rather ignores that vast stretches of the route through Nottingham and Leicester have been obliterated - yet alone other problematic areas such as a very popular preserved railway on the trackbed between Leicester and Loughborough (and soon Nottingham).

To his credit, he does acknowledge that " There is a question of what would happen at the London end — whether to share existing tracks to Paddington or Marylebone, or to tunnel to Euston" - without actually saying that would mean a brand-new line all the way south from Aylesbury, and all the expense of creating the extra capacity at the London end. In other words, a brand new railway line into London.

He also doesn't notice that the line doesn't go anywhere near Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester - one of the major problems that saw the line shut in the 1960s. It could get to Manchester by rebuilding something like the Woodhead route (and good luck with that).

It is another typical HS2-wrecking motion: the idea that some handwavium 'solution' will solve the problem when it doesn't - and knowing that for that reason their alternative will never happen.

Scott_P · August 2019

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1158265198530236416

Alistair · August 2019

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.

Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?

hamiltonace · August 2019

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.

I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1158265198530236416

I’d expect the gap to widen rather than narrow or reverse. The only thing in favour of the union now is inertia. Brexit is eliminating that too.

IanB2 · August 2019

JosiasJessop said:
If you want an early-morning laugh, may I point you at the following Spectator article on HS2:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/there-is-a-far-better-option-than-hs2-and-it-already-exists/

In which Ross Clark tries to state that reopening the Great Central Railway would be a cheaper and better way of doing HS2.

Gems such as "But for much of its length the Great Central could be reinstated with little earth-moving, tunnelling and without the need to demolish residential properties or foul sites of special scientific interest." rather ignores that vast stretches of the route through Nottingham and Leicester have been obliterated - yet alone other problematic areas such as a very popular preserved railway on the trackbed between Leicester and Loughborough (and soon Nottingham).

To his credit, he does acknowledge that " There is a question of what would happen at the London end — whether to share existing tracks to Paddington or Marylebone, or to tunnel to Euston" - without actually saying that would mean a brand-new line all the way south from Aylesbury, and all the expense of creating the extra capacity at the London end. In other words, a brand new railway line into London.

He also doesn't notice that the line doesn't go anywhere near Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester - one of the major problems that saw the line shut in the 1960s. It could get to Manchester by rebuilding something like the Woodhead route (and good luck with that).

It is another typical HS2-wrecking motion: the idea that some handwavium 'solution' will solve the problem when it doesn't - and knowing that for that reason their alternative will never happen.

The Spectator will print any old rubbish nowadays, if it plays into their preconceptions.

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?

2010 Labour voters vs 2017 Labour voters.

dr_spyn · August 2019

Swinson might think that an Electoral Remain Pact will benefit the LDs, however, would The SNP really stand aside in East Dunbartonshire? SNP gain another seat at Westminster, whilst making life tricky for LDs there as well. The Remain Alliance looks like a pipe dream.

Scott_P · August 2019

Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248

Gallowgate · August 2019

The union is done.

Foxy · August 2019

JosiasJessop said:
If you want an early-morning laugh, may I point you at the following Spectator article on HS2:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/there-is-a-far-better-option-than-hs2-and-it-already-exists/

In which Ross Clark tries to state that reopening the Great Central Railway would be a cheaper and better way of doing HS2.

Gems such as "But for much of its length the Great Central could be reinstated with little earth-moving, tunnelling and without the need to demolish residential properties or foul sites of special scientific interest." rather ignores that vast stretches of the route through Nottingham and Leicester have been obliterated - yet alone other problematic areas such as a very popular preserved railway on the trackbed between Leicester and Loughborough (and soon Nottingham).

To his credit, he does acknowledge that " There is a question of what would happen at the London end — whether to share existing tracks to Paddington or Marylebone, or to tunnel to Euston" - without actually saying that would mean a brand-new line all the way south from Aylesbury, and all the expense of creating the extra capacity at the London end. In other words, a brand new railway line into London.

He also doesn't notice that the line doesn't go anywhere near Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester - one of the major problems that saw the line shut in the 1960s. It could get to Manchester by rebuilding something like the Woodhead route (and good luck with that).

It is another typical HS2-wrecking motion: the idea that some handwavium 'solution' will solve the problem when it doesn't - and knowing that for that reason their alternative will never happen.

There is something to be said for a new line that actually stops along the way so people can get on and off. Not least this might make it popular along the route.

Alanbrooke · August 2019

Scott_P said:
Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248

so less well off areas get a boost and the poshos are against it.

Theuniondivvie · August 2019

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?

I guess that they're no longer SLab voters. A third of current SLab voters is probably quite a small number overall, but still..

SandyRentool · August 2019

Labour has the same problem of a divided support base over Scottish Independence as it does over Brexit. Even more plates to spin to try and keep voters onside.

In 2017 we had the right tactics of talking about other issues as much as possible and ignoring the elephant in the room. I'm not convinced that the same approach will work in a snap GE or at the next Holyrood elections.

Foxy · August 2019

Scott_P said:
Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248

I don't think that it is correct to say no one knows where the money is coming from. It is mostly the Trusts own money that is being allowed to be spent:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1158261163488137219?s=19

IanB2 · August 2019

dr_spyn said:
Swinson might think that an Electoral Remain Pact will benefit the LDs, however, would The SNP really stand aside in East Dunbartonshire? SNP gain another seat at Westminster, whilst making life tricky for LDs there as well. The Remain Alliance looks like a pipe dream.

In Scotland it will probably be left to the voters, with only some informal co-operation between the parties, whereas in E&W a more formal arrangement to stand down in each other's favour is more of a runner.

Gallowgate · August 2019

So... what flag should England and Wales have?

Foxy · August 2019

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

Nigelb · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
There are at least two reasons to pay attention to this:

https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1158227686134861824?s=21
Last roll of the dice, do you think this is a game changer for Beto?
I don’t know. But it will attract attention and he’s got a connection to the area so he is somewhat protected against accusations of bandwagonning.

I don’t read it as anything of the sort, and I don’t think any Democrats will.
It’s something that simply needs expressing, and is entirely consistent with O’Rourke’s politics.

SouthamObserver · August 2019

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
There are at least two reasons to pay attention to this:

https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1158227686134861824?s=21
Last roll of the dice, do you think this is a game changer for Beto?

A very obvious Democrat attack line against Trump is that his white supremacy and deliberate divisiveness empowers people who want to kill US citizens. He makes Americans less safe. That may well resonate. Largely because it’s true.

ydoethur · August 2019

JosiasJessop said:
If you want an early-morning laugh, may I point you at the following Spectator article on HS2:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/there-is-a-far-better-option-than-hs2-and-it-already-exists/

In which Ross Clark tries to state that reopening the Great Central Railway would be a cheaper and better way of doing HS2.

Gems such as "But for much of its length the Great Central could be reinstated with little earth-moving, tunnelling and without the need to demolish residential properties or foul sites of special scientific interest." rather ignores that vast stretches of the route through Nottingham and Leicester have been obliterated - yet alone other problematic areas such as a very popular preserved railway on the trackbed between Leicester and Loughborough (and soon Nottingham).

To his credit, he does acknowledge that " There is a question of what would happen at the London end — whether to share existing tracks to Paddington or Marylebone, or to tunnel to Euston" - without actually saying that would mean a brand-new line all the way south from Aylesbury, and all the expense of creating the extra capacity at the London end. In other words, a brand new railway line into London.

He also doesn't notice that the line doesn't go anywhere near Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester - one of the major problems that saw the line shut in the 1960s. It could get to Manchester by rebuilding something like the Woodhead route (and good luck with that).

It is another typical HS2-wrecking motion: the idea that some handwavium 'solution' will solve the problem when it doesn't - and knowing that for that reason their alternative will never happen.

There's a detailed smackdown of Clark here:

https://paulbigland.blog/2019/08/03/rebuild-the-great-central-instead-of-building-hs2-heres-why-its-utter-nonsense/

williamglenn · August 2019

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

Leave/Remain in England and Wales has never been anything like as heavily in favour of Brexit as that. Even in the referendum, England was 53.4% Leave, 46.6% Remain.

Alistair · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?
2010 Labour voters vs 2017 Labour voters.

Sure, but SLab was the vanguard of BetterTogether when almost half their voters were pro indy, now that it's down to a third I don't see why they wouldn't want to finish off their party for good.

SLab members are primed and willing to do this, I was canvassed by the former MPs team a wee bit ago and the guy I spoke to was simply furious about Indy supporters and the even the whole concept of having had the referendum.

Foxy · August 2019

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:
Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248
so less well off areas get a boost and the poshos are against it.

I don't think so. The split in the article of Leave vs Remain voting areas seems about right for the geography.

United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust has been a financial basket case for years, particularly the Boston site. No one wants to work there being the major problem.

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?
2010 Labour voters vs 2017 Labour voters.
Sure, but SLab was the vanguard of BetterTogether when almost half their voters were pro indy, now that it's down to a third I don't see why they wouldn't want to finish off their party for good.

SLab members are primed and willing to do this, I was canvassed by the former MPs team a wee bit ago and the guy I spoke to was simply furious about Indy supporters and the even the whole concept of having had the referendum.

Remarkably, in a poll showing that Scotland would opt for independence, Jeremy Corbyn still polls worse than Boris Johnson.

Pulpstar · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?
2010 Labour voters vs 2017 Labour voters.

Labour people seem to change their mind on everything

SouthamObserver · August 2019

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?
I guess that they're no longer SLab voters. A third of current SLab voters is probably quite a small number overall, but still..

It’s easy to understand why previously unionist Scots on the left would now want independence. The utter uselessness of Labour combined with triumphalist and destructive hard right Tory English nationalism is not exactly a beguiling prospect - especially if you can try to build a different future. Of course, the Tory drift to overt English nationalism began with Cameron’s reaction to the 2014 referendum result. It has accelerated since 2016. Their reaction to Scottish independence will be something to see. Sadly, it is part of the process that we have to go through.

Alanbrooke · August 2019

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:
Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248
so less well off areas get a boost and the poshos are against it.
I don't think so. The split in the article of Leave vs Remain voting areas seems about right for the geography.

United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust has been a financial basket case for years, particularly the Boston site. No one wants to work there being the major problem.

well then if its a boost why are people moaning ? Good news.

ydoethur · August 2019

Foxy said:
There is something to be said for a new line that actually stops along the way so people can get on and off. Not least this might make it popular along the route.

The point about HS2 is that by freeing up huge amounts of capacity elsewhere it will make it much easier for those people who live on old railway lines to get on and off trains, by providing far more of them.

Unfortunately for logistical reasons this pretty much has to be a new line as the expense and disruption of increasing capacity on existing lines is far worse - cf the WCML upgrade which somehow cost more than building a whole new railway.

And if we have to build a new railway, why not make it high speed so it is an attractive option to travel on and stop at key hubs which is after all where most of the traffic is? After all, express trains already go through Penkridge and Rugeley Trent Valley without benefitting the people who live there. Indeed, by making less space for local services they actively reduce their utility.

And frankly - clinching argument - I suspect a lot of the people concerned would whinge anyway even if you offered them free express tickets to London for life and a million pounds in gold each. Whinging is what people do. While I have every sympathy for those affected by HS2's mistakes - the person who was crassly offered a three bed semi in exchange for an Elizabethan manor house springs to mind - I don't think we can say that his opposition would be softened by opening a local station.

dr_spyn · August 2019

Would any local Remain pact in England and Wales be more workable if Labour dropped Corbyn?

OblitusSumMe · August 2019

I'm sure there was probably a time when people would have preferred to be paid in Sterling, rather than some unstable Continental currency but, alas, no longer.

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/04/edinburgh-festival-performers-avoid-sterling-brexit

IanB2 · August 2019

dr_spyn said:
Would any local Remain pact in England and Wales be more workable if Labour dropped Corbyn?

Almost certainly.

The best we can hope for is some very limited co-operation in a small handful of key seats - but one that could clearly make a difference. A lot will depend on the stance of individual candidates. For example it would be good to see a Labour-only challenge to Bozo in Uxbridge and a LibDem-only challenge to JRM.

I expect Labour's tribalism would stand in the way of such a deal, but under a new leader elected in the turmoil of the current political climate, there is always a chance.

SouthamObserver · August 2019

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

Yep, I agree. Either way, though, we are living through the end of the UK - killed by the former Conservative and Unionist Party. For Johnson to lose Scotland will be a humiliation beyond compare. It will be what he is remembered for above all else. Delicious.

OblitusSumMe · August 2019

dr_spyn said:
Would any local Remain pact in England and Wales be more workable if Labour dropped Corbyn?

No, that would make it harder, as Labour could more credibly claim there was no need for it.

IanB2 · August 2019

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:
There is something to be said for a new line that actually stops along the way so people can get on and off. Not least this might make it popular along the route.
The point about HS2 is that by freeing up huge amounts of capacity elsewhere it will make it much easier for those people who live on old railway lines to get on and off trains, by providing far more of them.

Unfortunately for logistical reasons this pretty much has to be a new line as the expense and disruption of increasing capacity on existing lines is far worse - cf the WCML upgrade which somehow cost more than building a whole new railway.

And if we have to build a new railway, why not make it high speed so it is an attractive option to travel on and stop at key hubs which is after all where most of the traffic is? After all, express trains already go through Penkridge and Rugeley Trent Valley without benefitting the people who live there. Indeed, by making less space for local services they actively reduce their utility.

And frankly - clinching argument - I suspect a lot of the people concerned would whinge anyway even if you offered them free express tickets to London for life and a million pounds in gold each. Whinging is what people do. While I have every sympathy for those affected by HS2's mistakes - the person who was crassly offered a three bed semi in exchange for an Elizabethan manor house springs to mind - I don't think we can say that his opposition would be softened by opening a local station.

Nevertheless - since the case is almost wholly capacity rather than the economic benefit of the 'saved' twenty minutes - Foxy is right that a service with a few more stops (a mix of London-Birmingham express trains and others that call more frequently) could go some way to addressing opposition along the route.

Foxy · August 2019

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:
Sources told the Financial Times last night that Mr Cummings was already planning the Facebook campaign for a “people versus the politicians’ election”.

On a visit today to Lincolnshire, the area that recorded the highest Leave vote in 2016, the prime minister will announce extra money for upgrades for 20 hospitals or NHS trusts in England.

In an apparent appeal to voters who have complained of being left behind, 12 of the hospitals or trusts receiving the funding are in areas that voted Leave. Government sources insisted that all the schemes were chosen on merit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-lays-ground-for-people-v-politicians-general-election-tf9v7nkg5

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1158265687229550592

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1158265427421749248
so less well off areas get a boost and the poshos are against it.
I don't think so. The split in the article of Leave vs Remain voting areas seems about right for the geography.

United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust has been a financial basket case for years, particularly the Boston site. No one wants to work there being the major problem.
well then if its a boost why are people moaning ? Good news.

The money will come in handy to inflate the profits of US pharma.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1158254546256355328?s=19

tlg86 · August 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1158259465411530754

Campaigners said they would pour resources into about 50 seats to help remove no-deal MPs and into about 50 more to defend Remain MPs vulnerable to a challenge.

Is that, err, legal?

SouthamObserver · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
From an initial reading I'd say that a majority for Indy Ref II within 2 years is is at least important; next Holyrood election for a mandate for ref?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1158258975772696576?s=20

Don't think we'll see SLab in the vanguard of Bettertogether II.
Weren't SLab voters about 40% pro-indy?
2010 Labour voters vs 2017 Labour voters.
Sure, but SLab was the vanguard of BetterTogether when almost half their voters were pro indy, now that it's down to a third I don't see why they wouldn't want to finish off their party for good.

SLab members are primed and willing to do this, I was canvassed by the former MPs team a wee bit ago and the guy I spoke to was simply furious about Indy supporters and the even the whole concept of having had the referendum.
Remarkably, in a poll showing that Scotland would opt for independence, Jeremy Corbyn still polls worse than Boris Johnson.

The sheer uselessness of Labour must be part of the independence equation. If I remember correctly one of the arguments against Yes in 2014 was that Labour might win the next GE. It’s not something that could be said with a straight face now.

NickPalmer · August 2019

The other issue is that local parties are normally quite gung-ho - if you can't stand in the big event, life feels a bit pointless. It's an issue for the Greens in particular, since they always stress that decisions are made locally without overt central pressure.

In the 2010 intervention in Broxtowe that I've talked about, the central Green Party was supportive of not putting up a candidate since I'd been working with them amicably for years and the seat was clearly a Lab-Con marginal. But the local party had a guy who was really keen to stand, so they did (the fact that he then defected to Labour after the election was an odd sequel); the central party said sorry, nothing we can do. Which was fair enough, given how the party works, but it makes cross-seat deals almost impossible.

eek · August 2019

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1158259465411530754
Campaigners said they would pour resources into about 50 seats to help remove no-deal MPs and into about 50 more to defend Remain MPs vulnerable to a challenge.

Is that, err, legal?

Yep - what is wrong with people volunteering their time.

tlg86 · August 2019

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1158259465411530754
Campaigners said they would pour resources into about 50 seats to help remove no-deal MPs and into about 50 more to defend Remain MPs vulnerable to a challenge.

Is that, err, legal?
Yep - what is wrong with people volunteering their time.

I see, resources sounds like money, but I guess they could just mean directing volunteers.

NorthCadboll · August 2019

Mike is indeed spot on as many of you who have been party activists for a long time will know. Few MPs ever switch parties, win at the next election and go on to serve in Government. Reg Prentice joining the Tories and then being appointed by Margaret Thatcher is one of the few who have done so since WWII.

Nothing harbours resentment in a local association more than the feeling of Central Office interference and as we saw with David Cameron's "A" list in 2010, some spectacularly failed to win seats which were basically "an open goal". If indeed Dominic Cummings is correct and the HoC cannot now stop a no-deal Brexit then the Brexit party will evaporate just as UKIP did in 2017. Then I suspect we will see the LibDems at local level far more reluctant to stand aside for the Greens than the Greens for the LibDems and that will probably blow any pact aside. While the Anna Soubry's of this world may stand as Independents and possibly prevent a Tory candidate from being elected on a split vote, there is lots of evidence to suggest the voters are far more tribal and all she may do is dent the Tory majority of her successor.

After all for Boris there is an ever greater prize in winning a Spring 2020 General election outright, pushing through the dormant Boundary proposals which would surely cast Labour into the wilderness for another decade at least, Corbyn or not as their leader.

OblitusSumMe · August 2019

Gallowgate said:
So... what flag should England and Wales have?

The simplest is simply to use England's cross of St George, since Wales was incorporated into three Kingdom of England rather than there being a Union as with Scotland and Ireland.

However, if you did a mashup with the Cross of St David then you would at least have some "black in the Union Jack," as per the rhyming song.

Cyclefree · August 2019

Worth remembering that it is not enough simply to recruit more police officers. For justice to happen all the parts of the justice system have to be properly resourced and work effectively - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/courts-will-struggle-to-cope-with-work-from-beefed-up-police-force-scfhblsq2?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter_121&utm_medium=email&utm_content=121_6809396&CMP=TNLEmail_118918_6809396_121

eek · August 2019

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1158259465411530754
Campaigners said they would pour resources into about 50 seats to help remove no-deal MPs and into about 50 more to defend Remain MPs vulnerable to a challenge.

Is that, err, legal?
Yep - what is wrong with people volunteering their time.
I see, resources sounds like money, but I guess they could just mean directing volunteers.

I suspect people will be surprised at how much can be done online without money nowadays. Even 30 seconds of thinking tells me how I could digitise a party's entire doorstep campaign at zero cost using a free trial...

Gallowgate · August 2019

OblitusSumMe said:

Gallowgate said:
So... what flag should England and Wales have?
The simplest is simply to use England's cross of St George, since Wales was incorporated into three Kingdom of England rather than there being a Union as with Scotland and Ireland.

However, if you did a mashup with the Cross of St David then you would at least have some "black in the Union Jack," as per the rhyming song.

I don’t think it would be sustainable to exclude Wales from proper representation, regardless of the history. It would only lead to resentment.

What about a new flag that uses the Welsh dragon and perhaps the historic English white dragon?

I am aware of the far-right connotations however...

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

https://twitter.com/ffrafaction/status/1158099334312996865?s=21

Foxy · August 2019

OblitusSumMe said:

Gallowgate said:
So... what flag should England and Wales have?
The simplest is simply to use England's cross of St George, since Wales was incorporated into three Kingdom of England rather than there being a Union as with Scotland and Ireland.

However, if you did a mashup with the Cross of St David then you would at least have some "black in the Union Jack," as per the rhyming song.

Perhaps a flag of St George with the top left quadrant for the Welsh flag ala the Union flag in the white ensign?

I wonder if Oz and NZ will update their flags to match?

Gallowgate · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/ffrafaction/status/1158099334312996865?s=21

What is wrong with these people?

ydoethur · August 2019

IanB2 said:

Nevertheless - since the case is almost wholly capacity rather than the economic benefit of the 'saved' twenty minutes - Foxy is right that a service with a few more stops (a mix of London-Birmingham express trains and others that call more frequently) could go some way to addressing opposition along the route.

Sorry, Ian, but that's rubbish. Leaving aside the minor detail that if you put local services on the route the odds are it will end up as a slower service than the existing WCML due to capacity issues - thereby making it highly unattractive to everybody - part of the idea is that it goes through places that are not heavily populated, so there would be limited local utilisation anyway. Look at Staffordshire. It avoids the three main population centres on the WCML - Tamworth, Lichfield and Stafford itself - and heads directly to Stoke and Crewe. This is in fact sensible, as there are extremely busy non-stop services from London on those pathways anyway. Cutting an hour off the travel time will make them still busier. So from that point of view the business case is sound for non stop HS.

But by doing that,it would also allow the reinstatement of local services on the Colston line for e.g. Great Haywood, which currently has half a dozen girt big express trains thundering through it every hour and hasn't had a passenger service of its own for nearly sixty years. Plus it will allow faster trains from Tamworth to London - change at Rugby for HS2, according to taste and wallet size.

What HS2 have been bloody awful at is explaining that once built there will be potential for far more numerous, far faster local services on the old Victorian lines which actually are where the majority of local rail users want and need them. There will also be much more capacity for through long-distance freight, which will ease road congestion and indeed the road maintenance bill (one lorry doing the damage of maybe 20 cars).

This is why local services on this new route are a non starter.

And before you suggest putting it nearer the population centres - why? They already have the damn lines - and see above re. the issues around upgrades.

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/ffrafaction/status/1158099334312996865?s=21
What is wrong with these people?

You probably mean that rhetorically but that is exactly the right question to ask if this far right terrorism is to be got under control.

Gallowgate · August 2019

Foxy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Gallowgate said:
So... what flag should England and Wales have?
The simplest is simply to use England's cross of St George, since Wales was incorporated into three Kingdom of England rather than there being a Union as with Scotland and Ireland.

However, if you did a mashup with the Cross of St David then you would at least have some "black in the Union Jack," as per the rhyming song.
Perhaps a flag of St George with the top left quadrant for the Welsh flag ala the Union flag in the white ensign?

I wonder if Oz and NZ will update their flags to match?

They won’t and I think everyone would be better for it. Leaves the Union Jack as a historical symbol rather than a political symbol.

Alistair · August 2019

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

Yep, I agree. Either way, though, we are living through the end of the UK - killed by the former Conservative and Unionist Party. For Johnson to lose Scotland will be a humiliation beyond compare. It will be what he is remembered for above all else. Delicious.

Johnson would simply be the man carrying the can whe the process that Cameron started culminates.

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

A Scottish hard border would be much easier technically than a Northern Irish hard border. It is shorter, less populated and with far fewer crossings.

Alistair · August 2019

Demographics are interesting

https://twitter.com/tristangrayedi/status/1158274189528371205?s=19

Absolutely no class divide.

twistedfirestopper3 · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Gallowgate said:
So... what flag should England and Wales have?
The simplest is simply to use England's cross of St George, since Wales was incorporated into three Kingdom of England rather than there being a Union as with Scotland and Ireland.

However, if you did a mashup with the Cross of St David then you would at least have some "black in the Union Jack," as per the rhyming song.
I don’t think it would be sustainable to exclude Wales from proper representation, regardless of the history. It would only lead to resentment.

What about a new flag that uses the Welsh dragon and perhaps the historic English white dragon?

I am aware of the far-right connotations however...

How about having St George and the Welsh dragon on it. Oh, hang on.......

IanB2 · August 2019

Alistair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.

Yep, I agree. Either way, though, we are living through the end of the UK - killed by the former Conservative and Unionist Party. For Johnson to lose Scotland will be a humiliation beyond compare. It will be what he is remembered for above all else. Delicious.

Johnson would simply be the man carrying the can whe the process that Cameron started culminates.

Carrying the can is the point, though, surely?

Alistair · August 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.
A Scottish hard border would be much easier technically than a Northern Irish hard border. It is shorter, less populated and with far fewer crossings.

It is genuinely surprising how few roads cross the Scotland - England border.

Alistair · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/ffrafaction/status/1158099334312996865?s=21
What is wrong with these people?

They are Facists, hope that helps.

nichomar · August 2019

OblitusSumMe said:
I'm sure there was probably a time when people would have preferred to be paid in Sterling, rather than some unstable Continental currency but, alas, no longer.

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/04/edinburgh-festival-performers-avoid-sterling-brexit

Heading towards a new five year low quite rapidly!

HYUFD · August 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712

52% 48% is not much gap really in terms of poll lead and including Don't Knows there is no majority for independence at all.

It shows even with No Deal Brexit there is no guarantee Scots would back independence

not_on_fire · August 2019

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.
A Scottish hard border would be much easier technically than a Northern Irish hard border. It is shorter, less populated and with far fewer crossings.
It is genuinely surprising how few roads cross the Scotland - England border.

Thank goodness the M6 isn’t notorious being horrdendously congested

HYUFD · August 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1158258150434385921

Given only 47% of Scots actually want indyref2 I suspect Boris would go down the Spanish route and either block it or impose direct rule, he would not allow Sturgeon to hold one

AlastairMeeks · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
52% 48% is not much really even and including Don't Knows there is no majority for independence at all

Is it your considered opinion that 52:48 is really even? Because if it is, I’ve got a few thousand of your posts I’d like to discuss with you.

IanB2 · August 2019

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Nevertheless - since the case is almost wholly capacity rather than the economic benefit of the 'saved' twenty minutes - Foxy is right that a service with a few more stops (a mix of London-Birmingham express trains and others that call more frequently) could go some way to addressing opposition along the route.
Sorry, Ian, but that's rubbish. Leaving aside the minor detail that if you put local services on the route the odds are it will end up as a slower service than the existing WCML due to capacity issues - thereby making it highly unattractive to everybody - part of the idea is that it goes through places that are not heavily populated, so there would be limited local utilisation anyway. Look at Staffordshire. It avoids the three main population centres on the WCML - Tamworth, Lichfield and Stafford itself - and heads directly to Stoke and Crewe. This is in fact sensible, as there are extremely busy non-stop services from London on those pathways anyway. Cutting an hour off the travel time will make them still busier. So from that point of view the business case is sound for non stop HS.

But by doing that,it would also allow the reinstatement of local services on the Colston line for e.g. Great Haywood, which currently has half a dozen girt big express trains thundering through it every hour and hasn't had a passenger service of its own for nearly sixty years. Plus it will allow faster trains from Tamworth to London - change at Rugby for HS2, according to taste and wallet size.

What HS2 have been bloody awful at is explaining that once built there will be potential for far more numerous, far faster local services on the old Victorian lines which actually are where the majority of local rail users want and need them. There will also be much more capacity for through long-distance freight, which will ease road congestion and indeed the road maintenance bill (one lorry doing the damage of maybe 20 cars).

This is why local services on this new route are a non starter.

And before you suggest putting it nearer the population centres - why? They already have the damn lines - and see above re. the issues around upgrades.

I never mentioned local services - they'd be high speed trains that stop, just like the Eurostar stops now and again at Ashford and Ebbsfleet. The schedule of the express train behind shouldn't be affected.

I was thinking of south of Birmingham, where the strongest opposition is. But it's a general point.

A parkway station near a major motorway may make just as much sense as a city centre station. HS2 links through to Eurostar services with just a short walk or two stops on a bus between Euston and St Pancras, after all.

Alistair · August 2019

Hurrah HYUFD is here.

nichomar · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
52% 48% is not much gap really in terms of poll lead and including Don't Knows there is no majority for independence at all.

It shows even with No Deal Brexit there is no guarantee Scots would back independence

Ha ha ha ......... priceless

Morris_Dancer · August 2019

F1: Bottas has gone from circa 19 to 51 for the title. Understandable, but still quite the shift.

OnlyLivingBoy · August 2019

Alistair said:
Demographics are interesting

https://twitter.com/tristangrayedi/status/1158274189528371205?s=19

Absolutely no class divide.

And this is before Scotland is dragged out of the EU against its will by its deranged neighbour to the south. I was pro-union in 2014 (although living in England I have no vote) but would passionately support independence now. Brexit has proven that the union is damaging to Scotland's national interest. The economic transition will be tough, but probably worth it in the long term to preserve our place as a modern European economy and escape the lunatics in England.

Nigelb · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1158258150434385921
Given only 47% of Scots actually want indyref2 I suspect Boris would go down the Spanish route and either block it or impose direct rule, he would not allow Sturgeon to hold one

Boris with his majority of one ?

You are drifting into major league fantasy.

OnlyLivingBoy · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1158258150434385921
Given only 47% of Scots actually want indyref2 I suspect Boris would go down the Spanish route and either block it or impose direct rule, he would not allow Sturgeon to hold one

Good luck with that.

IanB2 · August 2019

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

hamiltonace said:

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1158256472926707712
Incoming HYUFD...
Within the secondary questions, the most pertinent finding is that a full 40% of previous Indy No voters believe that Brexit strengthens the case for independence.

Which is remarkable, not least because whilst the consequences of Brexit do create arguments for Sindy, the experience and process of Brexit throws up some considerable arguments against.

For HY, the finding is not that Scottish Con voters are softening towards independence, but that everyone else is. I said some time ago that Brexit could revive anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland and weaken anti-SNP tactical voting, and this poll provides evidence that the political climate is heading in that direction; a trend that the ascent of Bozo will surely accelerate.
I have been talking about Exit for at least a year. The Scottish issue is going to come to match the Irish border soon as a major problem. The Tory mps in Scotland were not elected on a brexit mandate but a mandate to protect the union. This they are failing to do. The same as the DUP.

There is considerable disquiet in the Scottish Tory party about the actions of their mps. As a general election looms expect the Scottish tory mps to start ignoring Boris and focussing on trying to keep their jobs

A Scottish hard border has the same administrative complexities as an Irish one, but the political sensitivities are less, as the Good Friday Agreement doesn't apply.

I think that the only viable Brexit is an England and Wales one. This shifts the Leave/Remain split closer to 60/40.
A Scottish hard border would be much easier technically than a Northern Irish hard border. It is shorter, less populated and with far fewer crossings.
It is genuinely surprising how few roads cross the Scotland - England border.

I'd expect that to be true of most long-standing historical borders, as they generally run along natural features and/or through areas that are hilly or mountainous, and the people living near the line would for a long time have looked inwards toward their own country.

NI is an exception because it is an artificial and relatively recent boundary running along the edge of what were previously simply internal administrative areas.

JosiasJessop · August 2019

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:
If you want an early-morning laugh, may I point you at the following Spectator article on HS2:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/there-is-a-far-better-option-than-hs2-and-it-already-exists/

In which Ross Clark tries to state that reopening the Great Central Railway would be a cheaper and better way of doing HS2.

Gems such as "But for much of its length the Great Central could be reinstated with little earth-moving, tunnelling and without the need to demolish residential properties or foul sites of special scientific interest." rather ignores that vast stretches of the route through Nottingham and Leicester have been obliterated - yet alone other problematic areas such as a very popular preserved railway on the trackbed between Leicester and Loughborough (and soon Nottingham).

To his credit, he does acknowledge that " There is a question of what would happen at the London end — whether to share existing tracks to Paddington or Marylebone, or to tunnel to Euston" - without actually saying that would mean a brand-new line all the way south from Aylesbury, and all the expense of creating the extra capacity at the London end. In other words, a brand new railway line into London.

He also doesn't notice that the line doesn't go anywhere near Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester - one of the major problems that saw the line shut in the 1960s. It could get to Manchester by rebuilding something like the Woodhead route (and good luck with that).

It is another typical HS2-wrecking motion: the idea that some handwavium 'solution' will solve the problem when it doesn't - and knowing that for that reason their alternative will never happen.
There's a detailed smackdown of Clark here:

https://paulbigland.blog/2019/08/03/rebuild-the-great-central-instead-of-building-hs2-heres-why-its-utter-nonsense/

Thanks for that. He puts the idiocy of the proposal quite well.

CarlottaVance · August 2019

Just as well there's nothing else going on in the world......

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-kashmir-amit-shah-moves-rajya-sabha-to-scrap-article-370-1564984999538.html

Stereotomy · August 2019

NickPalmer said:
The other issue is that local parties are normally quite gung-ho - if you can't stand in the big event, life feels a bit pointless. It's an issue for the Greens in particular, since they always stress that decisions are made locally without overt central pressure.

In the 2010 intervention in Broxtowe that I've talked about, the central Green Party was supportive of not putting up a candidate since I'd been working with them amicably for years and the seat was clearly a Lab-Con marginal. But the local party had a guy who was really keen to stand, so they did (the fact that he then defected to Labour after the election was an odd sequel); the central party said sorry, nothing we can do. Which was fair enough, given how the party works, but it makes cross-seat deals almost impossible.

I've heard the opposite from somebody in the Greens. Apparently local parties are often happy not to stand people because of the cost.

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