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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Osborne gets ready to deliver his 5th budget Betfair punters rate CON majority chances at 20.8 pc and most seats at 41.7

With just over a year to go before the general election today’s budget is key to Tory chances. This morning’s news on employment and the general better economic pointers. These, though, have yet to work themselves through in the polling.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    I want a steady as she goes budget.

    The eye catching budget should be for 2015.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    edited March 2014
    Well this is one of the tories chances to change the narrative...lets see if they take it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    Jim Carrey -

    "So you're telling me there's a chance?

    YEAH!!!!"


    www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    All the best Oblitus.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Indeed.. best wishes OSM... depression is an awful condition.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Both Cameron and Miliband very good today at PMQs
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.

    Good on you for talking about it in a public forum, depression has far too much of a stigma attached to it. I hope the CBT goes well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Can't see the pretty graphs from my office.

    The 42% most seats surprises me on how positive it is. (It's been my view for 18 months that it's a pretty likely outcome). What was it a year ago?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Dobbers at the ready for Budget Bingo...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    OSM, best wishes for battling your depression. I'm not sure this place is necessarily the best to assist you, but here's hoping!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.

    Good therapists can be invaluable. Hope it goes well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Economy wins PP's first cliche market at 5/2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Long Term Economic Plan - Kerching.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Betting QUestion:

    I have Osborne unmatched on Betfair Con next leader, £20 at 5-1 (I'm laying). I have a liability for Gove on there of ~ £70 - will it be able to match?, only ~ £30 in the Betfair account at the moment (Well the statement says ~ £1100 but I have alot of lays, arbs, hedges in there right now)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    LTEP = win for me as flagged earlier.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    SAVERS!!!

    More generous ISA allowances? Let's hope so!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,364
    OSM:

    Best wishes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Has he had a sip yet ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting QUestion:

    I have Osborne unmatched on Betfair Con next leader, £20 at 5-1 (I'm laying). I have a liability for Gove on there of ~ £70 - will it be able to match?, only ~ £30 in the Betfair account at the moment (Well the statement says ~ £1100 but I have alot of lays, arbs, hedges in there right now)

    Betfair won't let you offer a bet unless there are funds to cover it, so, yes, if the bet is shown as unmatched, you must have enough dosh on the account.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    "Support for savers at the centre of this budget" - GO

    I'm guessing the surprise is something to do with savings. Not sure what though
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    A budget for savers - could be good news for my clients!!!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Is this what Andrew Neil was pointing to?

    How about:

    - Full ISA limit can go in cash (ie doubling cash limit)
    - Then put up the main limit as well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    What a zinger from George there.

    Probably wounded Ed balls.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    Oblitus - always look on the bright side of life!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,364
    PMQ's:

    That was a really enjoyable PMQ's, especially some of the submissions on real issues from backbenchers (mostly Labour). The last question on female to male disparity, and the one on the smear test failure in particular. I hadn't heard of Sophie Jones's death, but thanks to PMQs I've started looking into it.

    Now I've got a problem: do I get some work done, or do I watch the budget?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Ukraine - Kerching
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    10p tax band on savings could be widened.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    The Boy's done good hasn't he? ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Just the sips bet for me (Which hopefully will turn out to be buying money). I did myself over on the Jim White cliche market !
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
    Excellent!
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL - deficit for this year £108bn so looks like you'll win your bet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    It's a very dense speech so far.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Reach for the water !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    Rebuilding of FX reserves. Excellent news.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MaxPB said:

    Rebuilding of FX reserves. Excellent news.

    Buying some gold would be a good idea too the way China and Japan and Russia and going to influence things going forwards.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Well that's the Tory right annoyed.

    Sticking to the 0.7% of GDP target on International Development.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Welfare cap will only rise in line with inflation.

    So welfare as % of GDP will fall!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    BOOM ! Can't lose now
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Upfront tax payments??? f-ing hell Ozzie....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
    ouch!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    ATED changes...interesting.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Slackbladder said:

    Upfront tax payments??? f-ing hell Ozzie....


    £4bn extra tax income from that move.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    Clampdown on intracompany transfer pricing, Google, Amazon and others are on notice.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    My stream cut out as he was announcing the upfront tax bit - what is it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Good charity stuff with Libor fines.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    "From midnight tonight anyone purchasing residential property worth over half a million pounds through a corporate envelope will be required to pay 15% stamp duty."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Good gags about Magna Carta celebration at Ed Miliband's expense...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Laugh out loud moment re: magna carta
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    OblitusSumMe said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.
    Er, you have to die to pay IHT!

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Thanks, Finkelstein, D.!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?

    Do they employ people in their sixties and seventies?

    Besides, how many die a year and how large are their estates?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    loolllll take that SNP :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Ozzie enjoying himself...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The OBR will rue the day.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarqueeMark said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.
    Er, you have to die to pay IHT!
    The wording was:

    "Inheritance tax to be taken away from those in the emergency services dying in the course of duty."

    My emphasis.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    More money for flood defences.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Come on George, scrap the Barnett Formula!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Potholes!!! Lib dems will be happy...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    TheWatcher said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?

    Do they employ people in their sixties and seventies?

    Besides, how many die a year and how large are their estates?
    "who give their lives protecting us" <- Lol read it again properly
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Alan Turing. Huzzah
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    How many sips is he up to ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    The NI stamp coming into Self-assessment...
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    George passes the Turing Test?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    BUDGET
    Robert Peston, Business Editor for the BBC tweets: Osborne seems rather pleased that tax receipts from North Sea oil are falling more than earlier forecasts. I wonder why?

    Osborne should watch that, I don't think the Scots will appreciate smart arsed smuggery tbh...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    AIA to 500k...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL - deficit for this year £108bn so looks like you'll win your bet.

    Excellent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pulpstar said:

    How many sips is he up to ?

    He needs a sip now, his voice getting a bit dry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    increase in car tax for companies//no surprise.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Pulpstar said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
    I agree with that sentiment, however he didn't sound pleased to me, just voicing concerns... (I'm only listening to the speech so can't see his face)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    BUDGET
    13:11: Mr Osborne says energy costs need to be cut by investing in new sources of energy for Britain's manufacturing to be competitive.

    Putin says he'll turn the taps off !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
    I have this theory (which is probably rubbish!) that due to his avatar, AveryLP is in fact the Chancellor - notice he hasn't posted in a while....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    "Class 2 NICs to be turned into self-assessment, cutting bureaucracy for millions of workers."

    Anyone know what that means?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    DaemonBarber said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
    I agree with that sentiment, however he didn't sound pleased to me, just voicing concerns... (I'm only listening to the speech so can't see his face)

    That's decent for NO then, I was going off 'Peston's analysis (I am watching no sound)'
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    no fuel duty rise...no suprise
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    It should be remembered that David Cameron came a cropper on the Magna Carta.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    edited March 2014
    FOBT duty raised to 25% (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals)
    Bingo Duty to be cut to 10% from 20%
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Bingo!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Bingo bingo!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
    I have this theory (which is probably rubbish!) that due to his avatar, AveryLP is in fact the Chancellor - notice he hasn't posted in a while....
    I think Osborne probably has a more balanced view on himself than ALP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    That saver for the sips with Paddy Power may turn out to be a shrood move...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Bung for the scots scotch....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    1p off beer duty.

    Yippee !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,364
    Whisky and cider duty frozen, beer duty down a penny.

    I can drown my sorrows now! ;-)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Beers all round!!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    'A penny off a pint for a second year running'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    FOBT duty raised to 25%.

    How does that work given they are 97% RTP machines at any rate ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    I've counted 1 sip so far btw - Budget up to 48 mins...
This discussion has been closed.

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