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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Osborne gets ready to deliver his 5th budget Betfair pun

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited March 2014
    Be interesting to see how these pension changes play with UKIP voters...

    Edit: antifrank hits the same point a minute ahead of me!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    If anyone wants to know why Ed Miliband should never be put anywhere near power, then this speech should be it. Did he even address any of the measures in the budget speech?

    And the poor fellow just doesn't get it: he is a man of privilege as well. He has no idea about the working man and woman.

    Class war from the real nasty party.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    LOTO response to the budget is a tough gig, but that was embarrassing.


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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    A predictable response by Ed, and probably written last month. I could have done that, and tim certainly could have done.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    antifrank said:

    This to me looks like a budget to dish UKIP. It looks to appeal to the Mail and the Express battlers.

    I agree - Dave & George are clearly taking the threat from the right seriously.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Biggest change to pensions in about 90 years..huge massive changes..

    Ed: Wibble... eton wibble...
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Core vote strategy for the Blues with a few token gestures on booze and bingo. Trying to bring back some goodwill among pensioners and middle income.

    Public health and green lobbies told to take a long walk off a short bridge.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Think how much money these pension changes will suck out of the economy ;)
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    If anyone wants to know why Ed Miliband should never be put anywhere near power, then this speech should be it. Did he even address any of the measures in the budget speech?

    And the poor fellow just doesn't get it: he is a man of privilege as well. He has no idea about the working man and woman.

    Class war from the real nasty party.

    I suspect that even most Labour supporters quietly agree that Ed Miliband is rubbish. He might still become PM, but he won't deserve to.

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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    BobaFett said:

    So what's the PB verdict?

    Home run by Ozzy and a disaster for Ed?

    As always with the budget, i will hold off a while until a calm reflection on the measures seperates the wheat from the chaff.

    But I would say that ManU have had better performances this year than Ed just gave.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    As we've had least a hundred posts without any mention of engineering, here's a BBC video on the controlled landslip work being done at Dawlish.

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=690332161032285&set=vb.150467675018739&type=2&theater

    That's a lot of material, but not quite the 350,000 tons reported last week. ;-)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2014

    Just a factual query - what is this about?

    "almost double the total pension savings you can take as a lump sum to £30,000"

    Currently if your total pension pot is £18K or less, you can take the whole lot out as a tax-free sum, rather than being forced to buy an annuity (or go into income drawdown). That limit is being increased to £30K.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Biggest change to pensions in about 90 years..huge massive changes..

    Ed: Wibble... eton wibble...

    ^^ up-vote
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336

    BobaFett said:

    So what's the PB verdict?

    Home run by Ozzy and a disaster for Ed?

    As always with the budget, i will hold off a while until a calm reflection on the measures seperates the wheat from the chaff.

    But I would say that ManU have had better performances this year than Ed just gave.
    Very sensible strategy....who knows what lovely delights are hidden away.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Schards said:

    This is truely terrible, it's just a prejudiced rant about everything Miliband doesn't like about the tories with no reference whatsoever to the budget speech just given. It's a good job no one listens, it's utterly embarrassing.

    Well, what else can he say? Nothing useful.
    He has a fair point about GO missing his deficit targets.
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    BobaFett said:

    So what's the PB verdict?

    Home run by Ozzy and a disaster for Ed?

    It wasn't a stellar performance by Milliband, but I don't think that matters, the LOTO is never going to be the headline event.
    It's best to wait for the analysis over the following hours, that's what usually makes or breaks the budget.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    Just a factual query - what is this about?

    "almost double the total pension savings you can take as a lump sum to £30,000"

    Currently if your total pension pot (in a defined-contribution scheme) is £18K or less, you can take the whole lot out as a tax-free sum, rather than being forced to buy an annuity (or go into income drawdown). That limit is being increased to £30K.
    Thats roughly what my pot is at the moment, it'd pay tuppence ha'penny if it didn't grow (V unlikely but you never know) if it was paid annually.

    That is good news for the poorest pensioners.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lab maj now 2.58 on betfair vs NOM 2.5

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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited March 2014
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Great news about annuities.

    WTF is an annuity, by the way?

    Simplifying, when you retire you had to give all your money to an insurance company in return for an annual income until you die. If you die the day after signing the contract that's tough luck.

    Now you don't
    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    Forcing people to buy an annuity was a quid pro quo for giving them the tax relief on pension savings - it was the state ensuring that you would use the money to provide yourself with a reliable income in return for the tax relief.

    I know there were problems with annuities, because rates have crashed, but disposing of that guarantee will surely create problems down the line.

    On the plus side, the added flexibility may make more traditional pension saving more attractive relative to buy-to-let investing, and so it may help first-time buyers in the housing market.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    No one other than perhaps a few Labour MPs will care about Ed Miliband's response to the budget.
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    I'm watching on Sky Sports 2, England v India in a t20 warm up match.

    Christ on a bike, how bright are England shirts?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    The recipe for Eton Mess:

    [The OBR's] forecast implies that by 2018-19 the UK’s budget deficit will have fallen by 11.2 per cent of GDP from its post-war peak in 2009-10 (around £190 billion in today’s terms). Just over 80 per cent of the reduction is accounted for by lower public spending. This will take government consumption of goods and services – a rough proxy for day-to-day spending on public services and administration – to its smallest share of national income at least since 1948, when comparable National Accounts data are first available. Just under 20 per cent of the drop in borrowing is accounted for by higher receipts, with the majority having taken place by 2012-13, largely as result of rises in the standard rate of VAT.

    For the twin Edded gas emitters, this is:

    80% Spending Cuts
    20% Tax Rises

    Result Budget Deficit falls by 11.2% of GDP.
    Growth increases.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    TGOHF said:


    He has a fair point about GO missing his deficit targets.

    Yeah, but...all that Labour can throw at GO is that rather than sort it out immediately, it took GO a little while to work out how to rescue the economy that, er, Labour itself had destroyed...

    Not exactly the worst of charges is it?


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    Oh, and none of you will be surprised to learn that Jade Dernbach's sole wicket so far was caught by a man on the boundary.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I'm watching on Sky Sports 2, England v India in a t20 warm up match.

    Christ on a bike, how bright are England shirts?

    Lemons playing in orange.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    For those who had a go on the Ladbrokes Budget specials, the winning buzzwords (with last prices) were;
    Long Term Economic Plan (1/2, opened 3/1)
    Recovery (1/20)
    Energy Prices (11/10)
    Young People (4/5)
    We're All In This Together (6/1)
    Bingo (1/4)
    Ukraine (1/2)

    Pleased that he went with "Hard Working People" rather than "Hard Working Families"
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Murray and Lendl split by mutual consent :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/26646809
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    This afternoon, George Osborne just gave what must surely the best ever Budget given by a Tory Chancellor, or perhaps even by any Chancellor! Never has the Conservative tradition in our great nation had such a charismatic luminary! Never has the Right had such a politically astute standard bearer!

    Such poise, such alacrity! Wow!

    And his repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!

    George is supremely confident, articulate, passionate and inspirational, and I hope you will agree with me that he is a refreshing alternative to the smarmy, puffed up posh-boy Ed Miliband!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    shadsy said:

    For those who had a go on the Ladbrokes Budget specials, the winning buzzwords (with last prices) were;
    Long Term Economic Plan (1/2, opened 3/1)
    Recovery (1/20)
    Energy Prices (11/10)
    Young People (4/5)
    We're All In This Together (6/1)
    Bingo (1/4)
    Ukraine (1/2)

    Pleased that he went with "Hard Working People" rather than "Hard Working Families"

    Time and sip count = 56 minutes/ 1 sip ?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    So what's the PB verdict?

    Home run by Ozzy and a disaster for Ed?

    As always with the budget, i will hold off a while until a calm reflection on the measures seperates the wheat from the chaff.

    But I would say that ManU have had better performances this year than Ed just gave.
    So a disaster for Ed then?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Oh, and none of you will be surprised to learn that Jade Dernbach's sole wicket so far was caught by a man on the boundary.

    "look in the book" - nowt wrong with any wicket - there is no preferred type !

    Bresnan is the new Dernbach
    Orange is the new Jade..
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    A bit scary that we are still spending £108billion more each year than we are earning.

    Shows we are still living way beyond our means.

    And even with the £108billion annual overspend there are huge numbers of people who believe the Labour argument that the govt is cutting spending purely for ideological reasons.

    I fear that Obsorne has won the economic argument (taking with him much of the media, the city and the intellectuals) but Labour have won the propaganda war, taking with them the voters.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Anything Osborne can do to make pension provision less of a cartel is good news. Annuity providers may actually have to start competing properly with each other now. I liked that whole savings bit (not least for entirely selfish reasons!), so well done to him. I can't see the rest being much of a game-changer, though, but no doubt stuff will emerge over the coming days.
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    IMHO this was the greatest budget in history.

    Purely for the Magna Carta/Ed Miliband comparison.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    edited March 2014
    AveryLP said:

    The recipe for Eton Mess:

    [The OBR's] forecast implies that by 2018-19 the UK’s budget deficit will have fallen by 11.2 per cent of GDP from its post-war peak in 2009-10 (around £190 billion in today’s terms). Just over 80 per cent of the reduction is accounted for by lower public spending. This will take government consumption of goods and services – a rough proxy for day-to-day spending on public services and administration – to its smallest share of national income at least since 1948, when comparable National Accounts data are first available. Just under 20 per cent of the drop in borrowing is accounted for by higher receipts, with the majority having taken place by 2012-13, largely as result of rises in the standard rate of VAT.

    For the twin Edded gas emitters, this is:

    80% Spending Cuts
    20% Tax Rises

    Result Budget Deficit falls by 11.2% of GDP.
    Growth increases.

    Comrade Chancellor! Good to see you back from the Commons posting on PB so soon! It was a fantastic Budget - you'll receive the Order of Lenin Thatcher for this!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Shares in cruise providers surely rising this afternoon ?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Great news about annuities.

    WTF is an annuity, by the way?

    Simplifying, when you retire you had to give all your money to an insurance company in return for an annual income until you die. If you die the day after signing the contract that's tough luck.

    Now you don't
    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    Forcing people to buy an annuity was a quid pro quo for giving them the tax relief on pension savings - it was the state ensuring that you would use the money to provide yourself with a reliable income in return for the tax relief.

    I know there were problems with annuities, because rates have crashed, but disposing of that guarantee will surely create problems down the line.

    On the plus side, the added flexibility may make more traditional pension saving more attractive relative to buy-to-let investing, and so it may help first-time buyers in the housing market.
    Might it also encourage annuity providers to be a little more generous with their rates?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Anything Osborne can do to make pension provision less of a cartel is good news. Annuity providers may actually have to start competing properly with each other now.

    Agree 100%. Pension providers more interested in their own returns than those of the poor pensioner.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Shares in Ladbrokes and William Hill fall sharply after the budget announcement that betting machines duty will be raised to 25 per cent.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    IMHO this was the greatest budget in history.

    Purely for the Magna Carta/Ed Miliband comparison.

    It was certainly worth the £20m grant that lead to the line!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Great news about annuities.

    WTF is an annuity, by the way?

    Simplifying, when you retire you had to give all your money to an insurance company in return for an annual income until you die. If you die the day after signing the contract that's tough luck.

    Now you don't
    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    Forcing people to buy an annuity was a quid pro quo for giving them the tax relief on pension savings - it was the state ensuring that you would use the money to provide yourself with a reliable income in return for the tax relief.

    I know there were problems with annuities, because rates have crashed, but disposing of that guarantee will surely create problems down the line.

    On the plus side, the added flexibility may make more traditional pension saving more attractive relative to buy-to-let investing, and so it may help first-time buyers in the housing market.
    Another subtle point is that Osborne expects tax revenues to go up because more people will take more of their pension pots that 25% at the normal tax rate (rather than 55%). The converse to this is that it reduces tax revenues further down the line.

    Thanks to Richard N for the clarification below.


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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    antifrank said:

    No one other than perhaps a few Labour MPs will care about Ed Miliband's response to the budget.

    Indeed, it was the kind of budget response that every LOTO has given since time immemorial. It will be 30 seconds on the news and then forgotten. Unless he has done a Cameron and completely missed a major flaw in what Osborne has set out.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    IMHO this was the greatest budget in history.

    Purely for the Magna Carta/Ed Miliband comparison.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100264352/budget-2014-how-king-john-betrayed-his-brother/

    "the anology really breaks down in the next sentence:
    The two were soon reconciled…"
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Fenster said:

    And even with the £108billion annual overspend there are huge numbers of people who believe the Labour argument that the govt is cutting spending purely for ideological reasons.

    I fear that Obsorne has won the economic argument (taking with him much of the media, the city and the intellectuals) but Labour have won the propaganda war, taking with them the voters.

    Very good comment.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Great news about annuities.

    WTF is an annuity, by the way?

    Simplifying, when you retire you had to give all your money to an insurance company in return for an annual income until you die. If you die the day after signing the contract that's tough luck.

    Now you don't
    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    Forcing people to buy an annuity was a quid pro quo for giving them the tax relief on pension savings - it was the state ensuring that you would use the money to provide yourself with a reliable income in return for the tax relief.

    I know there were problems with annuities, because rates have crashed, but disposing of that guarantee will surely create problems down the line.

    On the plus side, the added flexibility may make more traditional pension saving more attractive relative to buy-to-let investing, and so it may help first-time buyers in the housing market.
    Might it also encourage annuity providers to be a little more generous with their rates?
    With life expectancy heading north and rates for the moment going nowhere can they afford to be more generous though ?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Osborne promised 7bn quid to cut energy costs for M/Fs. That seems a lot of money, I wonder where it is coming from.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289


    Time and sip count = 56 minutes/ 1 sip ?

    I made it 54m 57s. We wanted under 53.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    So what's the PB verdict?

    Home run by Ozzy and a disaster for Ed?

    As always with the budget, i will hold off a while until a calm reflection on the measures seperates the wheat from the chaff.

    But I would say that ManU have had better performances this year than Ed just gave.
    So a disaster for Ed then?
    No.. It was terrible from Ed, but nobody will been paying enough attention for it to qualify as a disaster.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    taffys said:

    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

    Do I trust the great mass of the British people who were unable to spot that they were being ripped off with PPI, or various other mis-selling scandals, and have ridiculously low competence at numeracy and reading comprehension?

    There are limits.

    The basis of the pensions bargain was one of give and take. The state gave you a huge wodge of your tax back in return for setting rules to make sure you would not spend all your retirement savings in one go.

    Now one half of that bargain has been torn up.

    The chances are high that this is creating the conditions for a huge mis-selling scandal in a couple of decades time. Annuities are tightly regulated, with government actuaries supposed to be ensuring that the insurance companies retain enough money to keep on paying them out.

    I have a bad feeling about this.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Always some losers in a budget


    David Buik ‏@truemagic68 12m
    The bookies are feeling the wheels of pain across their backs - Thanks George! - LADBROKES down 12.5%, WILLIAM HILL down 6%!
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    A slightly complicated budget and definitely unusual. Possibly too clever by half, but we'll see.

    Ed's Blue Peter (here's one I made earlier) response irrelevant as always. But in the best Dave Spart tradition.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Danny Alexander on the Beeb doing an excellent job of explaining the Coalition budget plans.

    Should use him more on the box.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
    I only come here to be entertained, not to elucidate my opinions. The PB Hodges are most of the right wingers on here.
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    Fenster said:

    I fear that Obsorne has won the economic argument (taking with him much of the media, the city and the intellectuals) but Labour have won the propaganda war, taking with them the voters.

    A good point for which there are two reasons:
    1. The cuts have (rightly) been seen to have hit the poorest and most vulnerable whilst the higher ups get a tax cut
    2. Cameron saying the cuts to welfare would continue after the deficit had been eliminated. The financial hole is just cover for the mission to shrink the size of the state on ideological grounds just like their idol Thatcher didn't.

    An interesting budget though. Great news for people like me on pensions and ISA rates. Of course if you are poor you don't have cash for either of those - expect views on who the government is supporting to harden amongst the lower orders who aren't going to fall into line and doff their caps in gratitude as some expect.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Small, but potentially significant;

    "Money invested through peer-to-peer lending companies will now also qualify for Isas."

    http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/banking/2014/03/isa-allowance-to-rise-to-15000

    Interesting. When I looked into zopa etc about a year ago, I was really put off because IIRC, while you were taxed on interest income, you couldn't offset bad debt.

    Does this completely change that? If so, micro-lending could get very big, very fast.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    taffys said:

    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

    Do I trust the great mass of the British people who were unable to spot that they were being ripped off with PPI, or various other mis-selling scandals, and have ridiculously low competence at numeracy and reading comprehension?

    There are limits.

    The basis of the pensions bargain was one of give and take. The state gave you a huge wodge of your tax back in return for setting rules to make sure you would not spend all your retirement savings in one go.

    Now one half of that bargain has been torn up.

    The chances are high that this is creating the conditions for a huge mis-selling scandal in a couple of decades time. Annuities are tightly regulated, with government actuaries supposed to be ensuring that the insurance companies retain enough money to keep on paying them out.

    I have a bad feeling about this.
    Perhaps we can have that PPI holiday after all !
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @compouter2

    'I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.'

    Can't guess which name you were posting under then!
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited March 2014
    The pension changes raise about £3bn over the parliament, although eventually (2030!) they lower it by £300m/year:

    twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/446288687668531200/photo/1
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    taffys said:

    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

    Do I trust the great mass of the British people who were unable to spot that they were being ripped off with PPI, or various other mis-selling scandals, and have ridiculously low competence at numeracy and reading comprehension?

    There are limits.

    The basis of the pensions bargain was one of give and take. The state gave you a huge wodge of your tax back in return for setting rules to make sure you would not spend all your retirement savings in one go.

    Now one half of that bargain has been torn up.

    The chances are high that this is creating the conditions for a huge mis-selling scandal in a couple of decades time. Annuities are tightly regulated, with government actuaries supposed to be ensuring that the insurance companies retain enough money to keep on paying them out.

    I have a bad feeling about this.
    Not sure how giving people a choice leads to misselling.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    TGOHF said:

    Always some losers in a budget


    David Buik ‏@truemagic68 12m
    The bookies are feeling the wheels of pain across their backs - Thanks George! - LADBROKES down 12.5%, WILLIAM HILL down 6%!

    Quite sad for Ladbrokes that the budget is net negative for them even though the racing levy extending abroad is positive for them wrt a more even playing field. As I saw when I was cashing my £5 free bets (Thanks Mirror) with Stan James the other week in shop a chap managed to pick out some winners but then was pissing his money away on the FOBT quickly afterwards.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    ...I liked that whole savings bit (not least for entirely selfish reasons!), so well done to him...

    With the various tax changes on savings it would make it a fair bit more difficult to have enough savings to pay tax on any of it.

    Perhaps that will be a new North London dinner party boast: "We have so much in savings that we've even had to start paying tax on it!"
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Nothing on stamp duty rates for private homeowners ?

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    My verdict? Checks betting slips.. 'Energy prices' 2/1, 25 'billions' so profit of 11 points on sell....

    Excellent budget!
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Very interesting that SKY News is basing its budget response in Wakefield a Labour marginal and repeating how few votes the Tories need next year to take it.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
    I only come here to be entertained, not to elucidate my opinions. The PB Hodges are most of the right wingers on here.
    So by your own admission you offer nothing of value to any debate and merely aim to poke fun and, I assume, bask in a feeling of superiority?

    Thanks for the clarification, will save me some time when reading future threads.
  • Options

    Very interesting that SKY News is basing its budget response in Wakefield a Labour marginal and repeating how few votes the Tories need next year to take it.

    I'd be utterly amazed if the Tories took Wakefield.

    There's over 7,000 Lib Dems there that will break disproportionately to Labour.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Very interesting that SKY News is basing its budget response in Wakefield a Labour marginal and repeating how few votes the Tories need next year to take it.

    I wonder if Kate Burley will decamp there for the general election. IIRC she was in a northern marginal last time - poor sods.

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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    taffys said:

    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

    Do I trust the great mass of the British people who were unable to spot that they were being ripped off with PPI, or various other mis-selling scandals, and have ridiculously low competence at numeracy and reading comprehension?

    There are limits.

    The basis of the pensions bargain was one of give and take. The state gave you a huge wodge of your tax back in return for setting rules to make sure you would not spend all your retirement savings in one go.

    Now one half of that bargain has been torn up.

    The chances are high that this is creating the conditions for a huge mis-selling scandal in a couple of decades time. Annuities are tightly regulated, with government actuaries supposed to be ensuring that the insurance companies retain enough money to keep on paying them out.

    I have a bad feeling about this.
    Not sure how giving people a choice leads to misselling.
    My understanding is that it was precisely giving people a choice to opt-out of their employer pension schemes that created the opportunity for the pensions mis-selling scandal decades ago. See, perhaps, here:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2070271.stm
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,590
    edited March 2014

    Fenster said:

    I fear that Obsorne has won the economic argument (taking with him much of the media, the city and the intellectuals) but Labour have won the propaganda war, taking with them the voters.

    A good point for which there are two reasons:
    1. The cuts have (rightly) been seen to have hit the poorest and most vulnerable whilst the higher ups get a tax cut
    2. Cameron saying the cuts to welfare would continue after the deficit had been eliminated. The financial hole is just cover for the mission to shrink the size of the state on ideological grounds just like their idol Thatcher didn't.

    An interesting budget though. Great news for people like me on pensions and ISA rates. Of course if you are poor you don't have cash for either of those - expect views on who the government is supporting to harden amongst the lower orders who aren't going to fall into line and doff their caps in gratitude as some expect.
    You forget the aspirational poor (as, over the past few years, has the Cons party). People who are making their way up the ladder, or who are stuck on the ladder but are dreamers, like the idea of not being penalised should their hoped or worked for success materialise.

    So I don't think this will play badly to the less well off.

    The overall point about having won the argument but lost the voters by @Fenster is of course an extremely good one.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pong said:

    Small, but potentially significant;

    "Money invested through peer-to-peer lending companies will now also qualify for Isas."

    http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/banking/2014/03/isa-allowance-to-rise-to-15000

    Interesting. When I looked into zopa etc about a year ago, I was really put off because IIRC, while you were taxed on interest income, you couldn't offset bad debt.

    Does this completely change that? If so, micro-lending could get very big, very fast.

    very tasty
    http://www.fundweb.co.uk/home/budget-2014/budget-2014-peer-to-peer-loans-eligible-for-isas/2008142.article
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Schards said:

    This is truely terrible, it's just a prejudiced rant about everything Miliband doesn't like about the tories with no reference whatsoever to the budget speech just given. It's a good job no one listens, it's utterly embarrassing.

    Well, what else can he say? Nothing useful.
    He has a fair point about GO missing his deficit targets.
    The official deficit measures and targets have long been so out of kilter with reality that no Chancellor could reasonably be expected to navigate by them.

    Osborne has been managing the public finances by the The Central Government Net Cash Requirement (CGNCR) for more than two years now.

    It is a conveniently well kept secret that the CGNCR is considerably less than the PSNB ex figures in all their currently ashionable permutations.

    It should also be noted that the Public Sector NCR, which is a wider measure than Central Government NCR, does not significantly alter the position as it currently generates cash surpluses which, although not available for government use, do remove the need for net cash financing by the government of the wider public sector.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    taffys said:

    The risk, though, is you'll end up with a bunch of 80 or 90-somethings who have spent everything in their pension pot and require a lot of state support.

    True, although those who have put something aside for retirement tend to be prudent. Do you trust the people or not...?

    Do I trust the great mass of the British people who were unable to spot that they were being ripped off with PPI, or various other mis-selling scandals, and have ridiculously low competence at numeracy and reading comprehension?

    There are limits.

    The basis of the pensions bargain was one of give and take. The state gave you a huge wodge of your tax back in return for setting rules to make sure you would not spend all your retirement savings in one go.

    Now one half of that bargain has been torn up.

    The chances are high that this is creating the conditions for a huge mis-selling scandal in a couple of decades time. Annuities are tightly regulated, with government actuaries supposed to be ensuring that the insurance companies retain enough money to keep on paying them out.

    I have a bad feeling about this.
    Not sure how giving people a choice leads to misselling.
    My understanding is that it was precisely giving people a choice to opt-out of their employer pension schemes that created the opportunity for the pensions mis-selling scandal decades ago. See, perhaps, here:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2070271.stm
    Yes but this is totally different - it allows you the choice to take more out or leave it in once you have retired.

    Just like your bank account or any ISA.

    Providers will avoid giving you advice like the plague..
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Very interesting that SKY News is basing its budget response in Wakefield a Labour marginal and repeating how few votes the Tories need next year to take it.

    Even if it is a stone-cold certainty that Ed Miliband will become the next PM (which it isn't), the news networks have a vested interest in pretending that the contest is wide-open, because to tell their viewers it's a foregone conclusion is to tell them that they don't need to keep watching.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Incidentally has anyone else spotted on twitter that Iceland is expecting an imminent eruption of Hekla. That might bugger up lots of travel plans if it happens!!

    ngusBMacNeilMP retweeted
    12h
    rvkgrapevine's avatar
    Reykjavík Grapevine @rvkgrapevine
    HIKER ALERT! #Hekla eruption believed to be imminent, police asking hikers to bring their cells in case of evacuation grapevine.is/News/ReadArtic…
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
    I only come here to be entertained, not to elucidate my opinions. The PB Hodges are most of the right wingers on here.
    So by your own admission you offer nothing of value to any debate and merely aim to poke fun and, I assume, bask in a feeling of superiority?

    Thanks for the clarification, will save me some time when reading future threads.
    Your assumption is misguided.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Two hours *after* the start of the budget and the government isn't engulfed in a storm. (2/2)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,049
    I will be very interested to hear Neil's take on the pension changes as I believe from past discussions he has a great deal of knowledge of the subject.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    RodCrosby said:

    Pong said:

    Small, but potentially significant;

    "Money invested through peer-to-peer lending companies will now also qualify for Isas."

    http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/banking/2014/03/isa-allowance-to-rise-to-15000

    Interesting. When I looked into zopa etc about a year ago, I was really put off because IIRC, while you were taxed on interest income, you couldn't offset bad debt.

    Does this completely change that? If so, micro-lending could get very big, very fast.

    very tasty
    http://www.fundweb.co.uk/home/budget-2014/budget-2014-peer-to-peer-loans-eligible-for-isas/2008142.article
    P2P lending looks interesting.

    What sort of APR could I be looking at on say a grand for a year and say 5 grand for 5 years ?
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    My recently widowed mother will be pleased with the reduction in tax on investment income.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,590

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
    I only come here to be entertained, not to elucidate my opinions. The PB Hodges are most of the right wingers on here.
    So by your own admission you offer nothing of value to any debate and merely aim to poke fun and, I assume, bask in a feeling of superiority?

    Thanks for the clarification, will save me some time when reading future threads.
    Your assumption is misguided.
    a) it wasn't an assumption it was an assessment that your posts are worthless; and
    b) it wasn't misguided

    keep it up with Basil and the goalposts, though, because that remains mildly amusing if used sparingly.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Very interesting that SKY News is basing its budget response in Wakefield a Labour marginal and repeating how few votes the Tories need next year to take it.

    Even if it is a stone-cold certainty that Ed Miliband will become the next PM (which it isn't), the news networks have a vested interest in pretending that the contest is wide-open, because to tell their viewers it's a foregone conclusion is to tell them that they don't need to keep watching.
    This is a factor that IMO will drive the punters to the polls and assist the Coalition with differential turnout in the marginals.

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,934
    Afternoon all :)

    With a couple of cancelled meetings, I had a rare opportunity to watch the Budget over lunch. It's a curious business - part theatre, part propaganda. Contrary to the majority view on here, and remember a majority can be defined as the largest number of people wrong about any given issue at any time, I didn't think Ed Miliband made a bad fist of what is the opposition leader's toughest Parliamentary outing.

    As for the Budget itself, I'll await the detailed analysis to see what it means for me personally (not much I suspect). As a racing fan and occasional betting shop devotee, raising the tax on FOBTs is long overdue and I'm sure will bring a good sum. There was also a comment about applying the levy to offshore betting operations (such as VC) but again I'll try and read the expert Racing Post analysis before passing judgement.

    The borrowing figure still looks horrendous for this year and I'm not sure I accept the optimistic assumptions on future borrowing but no doubt Avery will chide me for my lack of confidence in St George. It does look as though the 2015 GE will play out as the 2010 GE did in terms of the economic debate concentrating on the scale of future public spending cuts and neither Osborne nor Balls will be able to play the old smoke and mirrors game on this.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Fenster said:

    I fear that Obsorne has won the economic argument (taking with him much of the media, the city and the intellectuals) but Labour have won the propaganda war, taking with them the voters.

    A good point for which there are two reasons:
    1. The cuts have (rightly) been seen to have hit the poorest and most vulnerable whilst the higher ups get a tax cut
    2. Cameron saying the cuts to welfare would continue after the deficit had been eliminated. The financial hole is just cover for the mission to shrink the size of the state on ideological grounds just like their idol Thatcher didn't.

    An interesting budget though. Great news for people like me on pensions and ISA rates. Of course if you are poor you don't have cash for either of those - expect views on who the government is supporting to harden amongst the lower orders who aren't going to fall into line and doff their caps in gratitude as some expect.
    With so much of the talk of the cost of living crisis, inflation outstripping wages rises and people just struggling to keep their heads above water. Who do you think people will see the increase to £15,000 a year ISA is actually aimed at? If you are struggling to pay the bills, where do you get your spare £15,000 from?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Michael Thrasher on Sky thinks there will be another Hung Parliament...
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Interesting

    Inflation Survey ‏@inflationsurvey 5m

    Office of Budget Responsibility expects UK RPI-CPI gap to widen to 1.9% by 2018. Is now 0.9%. Supports UK RPI linkers.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261

    antifrank said:

    No one other than perhaps a few Labour MPs will care about Ed Miliband's response to the budget.

    Indeed, it was the kind of budget response that every LOTO has given since time immemorial. It will be 30 seconds on the news and then forgotten. Unless he has done a Cameron and completely missed a major flaw in what Osborne has set out.
    Surely most LOTO responses actually mention some of the measures that have been announced?

    Do you think it was a good response, worthy of a potential future PM, or one that would have embarrassed the JCR debating group? Do you think it was a speech designed to bring the country together, or one to sow and breed hatred?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    Michael Thrasher on Sky thinks there will be another Hung Parliament...

    There's nothing Mikey likes more than a bit of swingback in the direction of my ARSE.

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    BBC- Nick Robinson said the budget was a heat seeking missile aiming at Nigel Farage's electoral support.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    TOPPING said:

    I do remember the PB Hodges declaring the Omnishambles as the best delivered budget in living memory and the response by the LOTO was useless.....oh, how we laughed.

    I notice that you regularly tell us how these "PB Hodges"* respond/think, yet you rarely elucidate your own opinions.

    *(who exactly are these "PB Hodges" BTW?)
    I only come here to be entertained, not to elucidate my opinions. The PB Hodges are most of the right wingers on here.
    So by your own admission you offer nothing of value to any debate and merely aim to poke fun and, I assume, bask in a feeling of superiority?

    Thanks for the clarification, will save me some time when reading future threads.
    Your assumption is misguided.
    a) it wasn't an assumption it was an assessment that your posts are worthless; and
    b) it wasn't misguided

    keep it up with Basil and the goalposts, though, because that remains mildly amusing if used sparingly.
    Topping.....interesting to note you have answered a question for Deamon Barber....mmmm.

    Anyway, usually when he(or you) post "I assume, bask in a feeling of superiority?"....I assumed, assume, meant it was an assumption.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    BBC- Nick Robinson said the budget was a heat seeking missile aiming at Nigel Farage's electoral support.

    No defence cuts there then !!

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,561
    I have not been able to come to terms with all of the budget yet but in broad terms he seems to have kept things fairly neutral and there is less of the freebies than you might expect in an election year.

    I remain concerned that the bet I had with Tim was so close. At the start of 2013 the forecast was for 0.6% growth and by the end it was triple that figure. The result? A reduction in what was otherwise going to be an increased budget defict of £12bn, approximately £8bn less than the year before. So we are still borrowing £108bn. Think how much our economy needs to grow before it can afford the current level of government spending. It is scary.

    Looking forward I think he has taken the increased revenues and "shared the proceeds" as DC used to say with some further reduction in borrowing but also reducing some of the pain to come. That is probably sensible but the debt mountain grows ever higher.

    If we now have an extended period of relative peace (another "NICE" decade as a less than competent Governor of the BoE put it while blowing bubbles) we may be alright. Not as well off as we were before and certainly not as well off as we think we are entitled to be but alright.

    If anything substantial goes wrong internationally and disrupts our economy (such as China going pop in a major way) heaven help us. Then we would see what poverty looks like in this country and it is not a £35K cap on benefits. We remain on the edge of cliff with a skilled pilot whose licence is up for renewal next year. I fear not nearly enough people have an appreciation of just how close to the edge we were and still are. i do not see a major lift for the tories out of this but their reputation for competence should be enhanced unless something unexpected pops out the woodwork.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Incidentally has anyone else spotted on twitter that Iceland is expecting an imminent eruption of Hekla. That might bugger up lots of travel plans if it happens!!

    ngusBMacNeilMP retweeted
    12h
    rvkgrapevine's avatar
    Reykjavík Grapevine @rvkgrapevine
    HIKER ALERT! #Hekla eruption believed to be imminent, police asking hikers to bring their cells in case of evacuation grapevine.is/News/ReadArtic…

    I'm not certain, but I think the Civil Aviation Authority changed the rules on volcanic ash after the massive disruption caused by the recent Icelandic volcanoes, so that planes will be allowed to fly through low densities of volcanic ash, whereas previously any amount of ash precluded flying.

    This would probably mean that the travel disruption caused would be much reduced, though of course it depends on how large any eruption is and what direction the wind is blowing in.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Incidentally has anyone else spotted on twitter that Iceland is expecting an imminent eruption of Hekla. That might bugger up lots of travel plans if it happens!!

    ngusBMacNeilMP retweeted
    12h
    rvkgrapevine's avatar
    Reykjavík Grapevine @rvkgrapevine
    HIKER ALERT! #Hekla eruption believed to be imminent, police asking hikers to bring their cells in case of evacuation grapevine.is/News/ReadArtic…

    I'm not certain, but I think the Civil Aviation Authority changed the rules on volcanic ash after the massive disruption caused by the recent Icelandic volcanoes, so that planes will be allowed to fly through low densities of volcanic ash, whereas previously any amount of ash precluded flying.

    This would probably mean that the travel disruption caused would be much reduced, though of course it depends on how large any eruption is and what direction the wind is blowing in.
    See the Civil Aviation Authority web pages on the subject.

    Previously, the CAA guidelines prohibited flying through the low density ash, but now it is allowed, and it will also be allowed through the medium density ash, provided the airlines have a safety case (and the CAA say that most airlines have done this).

    That said, eruptions of Hekla have tended to be larger than those of Eyjaf and Grimsvotn.

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    I am now wondering what Osborne's anniversary-of-Waterloo jibe will look like in next year's Budget.

    We can be fairly certain that it will not be along the lines of

    "200 years ago this year, in a field not far from here, a posh boy from Eton at the head of an army of scum spanked the bottom of a greasy little foreign faux-prole parvenu, whose chief idea for the future was that it look more like the failed past..."
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    BBC- Nick Robinson said the budget was a heat seeking missile aiming at Nigel Farage's electoral support.

    On the other hand, Nigel will be a big beneficiary of Osborne's largesse:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2248755/Nigel-Farage-11am-pub-gloriously-non-PC-audience-force-Britains-party-.html

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    NextNext Posts: 826
    New Thread
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Just a factual query - what is this about?

    "almost double the total pension savings you can take as a lump sum to £30,000"

    Currently if your total pension pot is £18K or less, you can take the whole lot out as a tax-free sum, rather than being forced to buy an annuity (or go into income drawdown). That limit is being increased to £30K.
    Since when did a 65% increase count as "almost double"?
This discussion has been closed.