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edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Osborne gets ready to deliver his 5th budget Betfair punters rate CON majority chances at 20.8 pc and most seats at 41.7

With just over a year to go before the general election today’s budget is key to Tory chances. This morning’s news on employment and the general better economic pointers. These, though, have yet to work themselves through in the polling.

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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited March 2014
    I want a steady as she goes budget.

    The eye catching budget should be for 2015.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    edited March 2014
    Well this is one of the tories chances to change the narrative...lets see if they take it
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Jim Carrey -

    "So you're telling me there's a chance?

    YEAH!!!!"


    www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    All the best Oblitus.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Indeed.. best wishes OSM... depression is an awful condition.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Both Cameron and Miliband very good today at PMQs
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.

    Good on you for talking about it in a public forum, depression has far too much of a stigma attached to it. I hope the CBT goes well.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Can't see the pretty graphs from my office.

    The 42% most seats surprises me on how positive it is. (It's been my view for 18 months that it's a pretty likely outcome). What was it a year ago?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Dobbers at the ready for Budget Bingo...
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    OSM, best wishes for battling your depression. I'm not sure this place is necessarily the best to assist you, but here's hoping!
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I've been seeing a private counsellor for therapy to help with my depression, because the short courses of CBT available from the local NHS did not help me.

    There are still a lot of GPs in the NHS who don't take depression seriously, and who don't view it as a proper illness, and it's a bit sad that what I heard of Miliband's questions were simply about the money involved.

    Good therapists can be invaluable. Hope it goes well.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Economy wins PP's first cliche market at 5/2
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Long Term Economic Plan - Kerching.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Betting QUestion:

    I have Osborne unmatched on Betfair Con next leader, £20 at 5-1 (I'm laying). I have a liability for Gove on there of ~ £70 - will it be able to match?, only ~ £30 in the Betfair account at the moment (Well the statement says ~ £1100 but I have alot of lays, arbs, hedges in there right now)
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    LTEP = win for me as flagged earlier.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    SAVERS!!!

    More generous ISA allowances? Let's hope so!
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    OSM:

    Best wishes.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Has he had a sip yet ?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting QUestion:

    I have Osborne unmatched on Betfair Con next leader, £20 at 5-1 (I'm laying). I have a liability for Gove on there of ~ £70 - will it be able to match?, only ~ £30 in the Betfair account at the moment (Well the statement says ~ £1100 but I have alot of lays, arbs, hedges in there right now)

    Betfair won't let you offer a bet unless there are funds to cover it, so, yes, if the bet is shown as unmatched, you must have enough dosh on the account.
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    "Support for savers at the centre of this budget" - GO

    I'm guessing the surprise is something to do with savings. Not sure what though
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    A budget for savers - could be good news for my clients!!!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Is this what Andrew Neil was pointing to?

    How about:

    - Full ISA limit can go in cash (ie doubling cash limit)
    - Then put up the main limit as well
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    What a zinger from George there.

    Probably wounded Ed balls.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Oblitus - always look on the bright side of life!
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    PMQ's:

    That was a really enjoyable PMQ's, especially some of the submissions on real issues from backbenchers (mostly Labour). The last question on female to male disparity, and the one on the smear test failure in particular. I hadn't heard of Sophie Jones's death, but thanks to PMQs I've started looking into it.

    Now I've got a problem: do I get some work done, or do I watch the budget?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Ukraine - Kerching
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    10p tax band on savings could be widened.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    The Boy's done good hasn't he? ;)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Just the sips bet for me (Which hopefully will turn out to be buying money). I did myself over on the Jim White cliche market !
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
    Excellent!
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL - deficit for this year £108bn so looks like you'll win your bet.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    It's a very dense speech so far.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Reach for the water !
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Rebuilding of FX reserves. Excellent news.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MaxPB said:

    Rebuilding of FX reserves. Excellent news.

    Buying some gold would be a good idea too the way China and Japan and Russia and going to influence things going forwards.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Well that's the Tory right annoyed.

    Sticking to the 0.7% of GDP target on International Development.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Welfare cap will only rise in line with inflation.

    So welfare as % of GDP will fall!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    BOOM ! Can't lose now
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Upfront tax payments??? f-ing hell Ozzie....
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    What did he say?

    (Sorry in a telcon and can't listen in)

    George Osborne said the OBR says we suffered the biggest recession in modern times and the largest bank bail out in the world.

    Or, as Ed Balls put it, “some mistakes were made”.
    ouch!
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    ATED changes...interesting.
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Slackbladder said:

    Upfront tax payments??? f-ing hell Ozzie....


    £4bn extra tax income from that move.

  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Clampdown on intracompany transfer pricing, Google, Amazon and others are on notice.
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    My stream cut out as he was announcing the upfront tax bit - what is it?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Good charity stuff with Libor fines.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    "From midnight tonight anyone purchasing residential property worth over half a million pounds through a corporate envelope will be required to pay 15% stamp duty."
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Good gags about Magna Carta celebration at Ed Miliband's expense...
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Laugh out loud moment re: magna carta
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    OblitusSumMe said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.
    Er, you have to die to pay IHT!

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Thanks, Finkelstein, D.!
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?

    Do they employ people in their sixties and seventies?

    Besides, how many die a year and how large are their estates?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    loolllll take that SNP :)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited March 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Ozzie enjoying himself...
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The OBR will rue the day.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarqueeMark said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh - incentive to be a part-time life-boat man - no IHT!?

    You have to die on duty to qualify for the exemption.
    Er, you have to die to pay IHT!
    The wording was:

    "Inheritance tax to be taken away from those in the emergency services dying in the course of duty."

    My emphasis.

  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    More money for flood defences.
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Come on George, scrap the Barnett Formula!
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Potholes!!! Lib dems will be happy...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheWatcher said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some announcements on help for the emergency services. Among them, Mr Osborne says he will be "waiving inheritance tax for those in our emergency services who give their lives protecting us".

    Hmm

    Big increase in south-east emergency services job applications ?

    Do they employ people in their sixties and seventies?

    Besides, how many die a year and how large are their estates?
    "who give their lives protecting us" <- Lol read it again properly
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Alan Turing. Huzzah
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    How many sips is he up to ?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    The NI stamp coming into Self-assessment...
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    George passes the Turing Test?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    BUDGET
    Robert Peston, Business Editor for the BBC tweets: Osborne seems rather pleased that tax receipts from North Sea oil are falling more than earlier forecasts. I wonder why?

    Osborne should watch that, I don't think the Scots will appreciate smart arsed smuggery tbh...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    AIA to 500k...
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL - deficit for this year £108bn so looks like you'll win your bet.

    Excellent.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Pulpstar said:

    How many sips is he up to ?

    He needs a sip now, his voice getting a bit dry.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    increase in car tax for companies//no surprise.
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Pulpstar said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
    I agree with that sentiment, however he didn't sound pleased to me, just voicing concerns... (I'm only listening to the speech so can't see his face)

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    BUDGET
    13:11: Mr Osborne says energy costs need to be cut by investing in new sources of energy for Britain's manufacturing to be competitive.

    Putin says he'll turn the taps off !
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
    I have this theory (which is probably rubbish!) that due to his avatar, AveryLP is in fact the Chancellor - notice he hasn't posted in a while....
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    "Class 2 NICs to be turned into self-assessment, cutting bureaucracy for millions of workers."

    Anyone know what that means?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    DaemonBarber said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Oh, that line re North Sea oil and reduced revenue could hurt the YES campaign.

    It may but there is no need for George to appear happy that revenues are falling. He can leave that sort of game to Labour.
    I agree with that sentiment, however he didn't sound pleased to me, just voicing concerns... (I'm only listening to the speech so can't see his face)

    That's decent for NO then, I was going off 'Peston's analysis (I am watching no sound)'
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    no fuel duty rise...no suprise
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    It should be remembered that David Cameron came a cropper on the Magna Carta.
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    edited March 2014
    FOBT duty raised to 25% (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals)
    Bingo Duty to be cut to 10% from 20%
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Bingo!!!
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Bingo bingo!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my that is awesome zinger from George Osborne about the Magna Carta.

    I nearly fell off my chair

    What was the joke? (sorry using PB for "instant" commentary!)
    King John's humbling defeat seems unimaginably distant.

    A weak leader who had risen to the top after betraying his brother, compelled by a gang of unruly barons to sign on the dotted line.
    Thanks.

    I see - looks like George has a sense of humour after all :)
    I made that comparison on PB last year.
    I have this theory (which is probably rubbish!) that due to his avatar, AveryLP is in fact the Chancellor - notice he hasn't posted in a while....
    I think Osborne probably has a more balanced view on himself than ALP
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    That saver for the sips with Paddy Power may turn out to be a shrood move...
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Bung for the scots scotch....
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    1p off beer duty.

    Yippee !
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Whisky and cider duty frozen, beer duty down a penny.

    I can drown my sorrows now! ;-)
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Beers all round!!
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    'A penny off a pint for a second year running'
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    FOBT duty raised to 25%.

    How does that work given they are 97% RTP machines at any rate ?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I've counted 1 sip so far btw - Budget up to 48 mins...
This discussion has been closed.

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