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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEG

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEGATIVE territory

As well as the Ipsos voting numbers we have the firm’s satisfaction ratings which it has been asking in the same form since the 1970s. This means that there are records going  back decades and we can easily make comparisons.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,442
    Smith's ban was too short IMHO.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,442
    And good to see Jeremy's ratings on the up. Perhaps we have now seen Trough Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Douglas!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    4th like Labour tonight?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    Sandpit said:

    4th like Labour tonight?

    Almost certainly. Unless its fifth.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    Sandpit said:

    4th like Labour tonight?

    We need to be thankful that PC and the Greens aren't standing or else it would be lower.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    Desperation
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Lib dems could get 60% im hearing
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    Desperation
    I doubt it but then you seem to have a dislike for lib dems and her in particular.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    malcolmg said:

    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    Desperation
    Some people will do anything to get out of Scotland, Malc. ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    Farage was in Peterborough. In the pub, then sloped off. Present, but not involved.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited August 2019
    timmo said:

    Lib dems could get 60% im hearing

    That really would be a sensational result, but it would also be very much from left field.

    If they win, they're just about meeting the expectations left by a duff campaign (sorry, Ian, but it has been) and a dismal candidate. If they win by more than 2-3%, they're exceeding expectations.

    If they win by 60% or any margin over 20%, pile on Swinson for next PM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    It depends: Farron was pounding the streets in Richmond Park on election day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,998
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,958
    edited August 2019
    Surely this is bad news for the country but fairly good news for Boris. He is miles ahead of the opposition on best PM. Supporters of other parties shouldnt take any heart from the poll, all it means is that voters will be more unhappy than usual as they don't like any of the choices.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,531
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    timmo said:

    Lib dems could get 60% im hearing

    That really would be a sensational result, but it would also be very much from left field.

    If they win, they're just about meeting the expectations left by a duff campaign (sorry, Ian, but it has been) and a dismal candidate. If they win by more than 2-3%, they're exceeding expectations.

    If they win by 60% or any margin over 20%, pile on Swinson for next PM.
    The campaign was OK, given that a Bollox campaign wasn't going to work in the seat. I would be amazed at such a convincing win given the nature of the seat and, in my patch at least, there weren't people rushing eagerly to pledge their support; the mood was apathetic and resigned. If they do win by such a margin it would be a strong comment against Brexit and Bozo.

    With a small health warning that I was in the north of the seat which is below average for the Libs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
    She makes me actually feel sorry for the Guardian. They printed that she only got her story because Nigel Farage or Arron Banks left it under her pillow, and had to pay her off.
    When actually it was Richard Tice sharing her bed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,998
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
    Lots of "may", "possible", "could" and "potential".

    Does anyone know what "Kingfisher" is? It's referred to at the very end.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
    She makes me actually feel sorry for the Guardian. They printed that she only got her story because Nigel Farage or Arron Banks left it under her pillow, and had to pay her off.
    When actually it was Richard Tice sharing her bed.
    It was a very classless article by the Guardian. She’s an easy target and they still managed to miss.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited August 2019
    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
    Lots of "may", "possible", "could" and "potential".

    Does anyone know what "Kingfisher" is? It's referred to at the very end.
    Project Kingfisher to bail out manufacturing in the event of No Deal.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6713321/Philip-Hammonds-secret-Project-Kingfisher-bailout-fund-kick-start-economy-event-No-Deal.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
    Lots of "may", "possible", "could" and "potential".

    Does anyone know what "Kingfisher" is? It's referred to at the very end.
    It’s the absence of such qualifiers for some items that is most striking.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
    Its not a genuine and careful assessment, it is a stress testing worst case scenario, which the article says.

    So no we don't care, because we don't believe it. The real cultists are people like yourselves who are willing to take anything that the High Priests say will go wrong if we challenge the status quo.

    As an atheist and natural sceptic I don't believe your doomsday scenarios. All this 4 horsemen nonsense is just that, nonsense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
    She makes me actually feel sorry for the Guardian. They printed that she only got her story because Nigel Farage or Arron Banks left it under her pillow, and had to pay her off.
    When actually it was Richard Tice sharing her bed.
    It was a very classless article by the Guardian. She’s an easy target and they still managed to miss.
    Oh indeed. Quite amusing that they named two of the three people running the Brexit Party, and failed to name the other one who was actually the likely source.

    What hope for quality investigative journalism, when who have Oakeshott on one side and Carole Codswallop on the other?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    The more interesting question is whether it is a genuine and careful assessment. If it is, the leaker is irrelevant.

    But the death cult will not care. The suffering is an offering to the Brexit deity.
    Lots of "may", "possible", "could" and "potential".

    Does anyone know what "Kingfisher" is? It's referred to at the very end.
    "Project Kingfisher" Hammond's no-deal bail-out fund a quick google suggests.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    Project Kingfisher is not so secret. There were articles in the Mail and Express in Feb, and Guardian in March.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/mehreenkhn/status/1156998097928708101?s=21
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    It depends: Farron was pounding the streets in Richmond Park on election day.
    Of course JSwinson is going to be there. If the LDs have won, and I'm still not convinced and have no money on, the leader needs to be the one being interviewed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
    She makes me actually feel sorry for the Guardian. They printed that she only got her story because Nigel Farage or Arron Banks left it under her pillow, and had to pay her off.
    When actually it was Richard Tice sharing her bed.
    It was a very classless article by the Guardian. She’s an easy target and they still managed to miss.
    Oh indeed. Quite amusing that they named two of the three people running the Brexit Party, and failed to name the other one who was actually the likely source.

    What hope for quality investigative journalism, when who have Oakeshott on one side and Carole Codswallop on the other?
    You see, that’s where you show how easily you’ve been duped by propaganda. Carole Cadwalladr has won multiple awards for journalism, and justly so because she has opened up an understanding of modern politics that was previously hidden. She is hated for it by those who seek to subvert democracy.

    Pigfucker Oakeshott shopped her source to the police.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    This poll has by some way the best ratings that the Conservatives have enjoyed in any GB poll in almost 4 months.

    Never mind that. The two threads reporting it are focused on Johnson's supposedly poor satisfaction rating and the implications of the poll for Corbyn.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416

    Though the Trot has a point. A large component of the misleading polling before the 2016 referendum, the 2017 GE and the recent Euros was getting likelihood to vote wrong. It may not happen again, but in such volatile times, who knows?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416

    Though the Trot has a point. A large component of the misleading polling before the 2016 referendum, the 2017 GE and the recent Euros was getting likelihood to vote wrong. It may not happen again, but in such volatile times, who knows?
    I don't think he has a point at all. In general Ipsos MORI polls would historically have been far more inaccurate if based on all responses than using the 9/10 likelihood to vote filter.

    Do Corbyn supporters like these realise that the allegations of conspiracies in the MSM mirror those of Trump supporters when also faced with difficult facts? Polls that don't fit the narrative are Fake News.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,864
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boris Johnson's ratings will crater even further if this happens

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1156990673029083137

    I wonder. Who could have leaked that?
    Ask Isabel Oakeshott?
    She makes me actually feel sorry for the Guardian. They printed that she only got her story because Nigel Farage or Arron Banks left it under her pillow, and had to pay her off.
    When actually it was Richard Tice sharing her bed.
    It was a very classless article by the Guardian. She’s an easy target and they still managed to miss.
    Oh indeed. Quite amusing that they named two of the three people running the Brexit Party, and failed to name the other one who was actually the likely source.

    What hope for quality investigative journalism, when who have Oakeshott on one side and Carole Codswallop on the other?
    You see, that’s where you show how easily you’ve been duped by propaganda. Carole Cadwalladr has won multiple awards for journalism, and justly so because she has opened up an understanding of modern politics that was previously hidden. She is hated for it by those who seek to subvert democracy.

    Pigfucker Oakeshott shopped her source to the police.
    She fucked pigs? News to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416

    Though the Trot has a point. A large component of the misleading polling before the 2016 referendum, the 2017 GE and the recent Euros was getting likelihood to vote wrong. It may not happen again, but in such volatile times, who knows?
    Turnout is the most difficult thing to model. The easiest ways are to believe only those who are 10/10 to vote. Or to believe only those who voted last time will vote this time.
    Both have obvious drawbacks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416

    Though the Trot has a point. A large component of the misleading polling before the 2016 referendum, the 2017 GE and the recent Euros was getting likelihood to vote wrong. It may not happen again, but in such volatile times, who knows?
    I don't think he has a point at all. In general Ipsos MORI polls would historically have been far more inaccurate if based on all responses than using the 9/10 likelihood to vote filter.

    Do Corbyn supporters like these realise that the allegations of conspiracies in the MSM mirror those of Trump supporters when also faced with difficult facts? Polls that don't fit the narrative are Fake News.
    I am not saying that they shouldn't attempt to model likelihood to vote, just pointing out that they got it wrong quite a lot in recent years. I think this a genuine phenomenon in the electorate. Brexit (for and against) and Corbyn are both good examples of previously disengaged voters turning out, and to an extent this seems to be happening in the USA too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,864
    dixiedean said:

    nichomar said:

    I believe Swinson is in B&R tonight is it normal for a party leader to be there on the night?

    Farage was in Peterborough. In the pub, then sloped off. Present, but not involved.
    Sound familiar?

    He doesn’t win Westminster elections because he can’t be arsed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1157003918611795971
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Foxy said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1156986752478908416

    Though the Trot has a point. A large component of the misleading polling before the 2016 referendum, the 2017 GE and the recent Euros was getting likelihood to vote wrong. It may not happen again, but in such volatile times, who knows?
    I don't think he has a point at all. In general Ipsos MORI polls would historically have been far more inaccurate if based on all responses than using the 9/10 likelihood to vote filter.

    Do Corbyn supporters like these realise that the allegations of conspiracies in the MSM mirror those of Trump supporters when also faced with difficult facts? Polls that don't fit the narrative are Fake News.
    I am not saying that they shouldn't attempt to model likelihood to vote, just pointing out that they got it wrong quite a lot in recent years. I think this a genuine phenomenon in the electorate. Brexit (for and against) and Corbyn are both good examples of previously disengaged voters turning out, and to an extent this seems to be happening in the USA too.
    I remember Martin Boon saying ICM's 2015 methodology would have called the 2017 general election spot on.

    Sadly ICM's 2015 methodology had Labour winning the 2015 GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,864
    Corbyn is at minus 50?

    Fook me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1157004450344689664
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1157003918611795971

    It would be good if he had done the mathematics and worked out when a general election could occur - any sign of a VONC and chances are the election is on October 31st..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1156998716190076928?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/tomescritt/status/1157002372943667200?s=21
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    Theresa May carried her bat? What about Richmond Park?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited August 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    What idiot wrote that?

    Surely all the world knows it is D. Lloyd George and A. Bonar Law.

    Also Arthur Balfour appears to be missing from that list.

    Edit - ah, I see the full list is only available to those who click in the photo.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/galleyslave15/status/1157003527127994370
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    What idiot wrote that?

    Surely all the world knows it is D. Lloyd George and A. Bonar Law.

    Also Arthur Balfour appears to be missing from that list.
    Balfour's towards the bottom of that list, for some reason it doesn't show the full image.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Casino_Royale said:

    Corbyn is at minus 50?

    Fook me.

    Not to worry - he is the absolute boy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    Theresa May carried her bat? What about Richmond Park?
    Doesn't count as she didn't put up a candidate, apparently.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    Theresa May carried her bat? What about Richmond Park?
    Doesn't count as she didn't put up a candidate, apparently.
    That’s one way Boris can avoid losing the next election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    Theresa May carried her bat? What about Richmond Park?
    Doesn't count as she didn't put up a candidate, apparently.
    So she's the only PM since 1900 not to lose a seat in a by-election? And indeed, actually gained one?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Lol - if only the also rans could get close to him. Bad as Bojo is he has solidified the Tory vote for now. No amount of silly spinning can alter that. Yes he'll lose B & R tonight b ut at the moment the main LD danger is potentially to Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.

    So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.

    So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
    Yup, though I suspect sustained No Deal puts Corbyn in Number 10.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.

    So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
    Pretty much where we have been since 2016.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.

    Which is unlikely to happen without some major blood-letting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I think the biggest threat to BJ at this juncture is probably the ERG ultras. Fortunately the likeliest result of their tactics is No Brexit.. bizarre as that seems.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    felix said:

    Lol - if only the also rans could get close to him. Bad as Bojo is he has solidified the Tory vote for now. No amount of silly spinning can alter that. Yes he'll lose B & R tonight b ut at the moment the main LD danger is potentially to Corbyn.

    Has Boris really? He may have picked up a lot of temporarily Brexit voters but at the cost of how many centralist Tory voters who will go permanently elsewhere..
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    eek said:

    felix said:

    Lol - if only the also rans could get close to him. Bad as Bojo is he has solidified the Tory vote for now. No amount of silly spinning can alter that. Yes he'll lose B & R tonight b ut at the moment the main LD danger is potentially to Corbyn.

    Has Boris really? He may have picked up a lot of temporarily Brexit voters but at the cost of how many centralist Tory voters who will go permanently elsewhere..
    All polls give a snapshot of where we are at a given point. At this point they point to a much bigger Tory vote share and the BXP in decline. You choose to spin it away according to your wishes. I stated pretty well what the polls show. The future is another country.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    Theresa May carried her bat? What about Richmond Park?
    Doesn't count as she didn't put up a candidate, apparently.
    That’s one way Boris can avoid losing the next election.
    Yep. Make sure we have left the EU before he has to face the electorate
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1157015353941250053
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,800
    Floater said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Corbyn is at minus 50?

    Fook me.

    Not to worry - he is the absolute boy.
    Whatever future historians make of the goings on of our times we're nailed on to be labelled 'weird'.

    Popularism definitely isn't popular.

    What's really exciting is that the really freaky bits are probably just about to happen - Corbyn voting against Boris' vonc in himself perhaps?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1156998716190076928?s=21

    I'm sure he can fall back on one of his other jobs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    Omnium said:

    Floater said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Corbyn is at minus 50?

    Fook me.

    Not to worry - he is the absolute boy.
    Whatever future historians make of the goings on of our times we're nailed on to be labelled 'weird'.

    Popularism definitely isn't popular.

    What's really exciting is that the really freaky bits are probably just about to happen - Corbyn voting against Boris' vonc in himself perhaps?
    Nah, he'll be present but he won't be involved.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    US Presidential. Interesting take from LA Times OpEd:

    "Trump, like most incumbent presidents, is more likely than not to be reelected. He has all the tools and power of incumbency going for him, and opponents who are more beholden to woke Twitter activists than to average folks in the Midwestern countryside. There’s a lot of runway between now and next November, of course, and Trump has a penchant for stepping in his own you-know-what. But he’s the favorite, and the debates haven’t changed that."

    It certainly seems from this side of the Pond that Trump's attempt to paint the Dems as now the party of the Squad has traction. It is a base+ strategy (base, coupled with suppression of the other side's vote) that has a lot of logic if you're as hated by a large chunk of the population as Trump is. Still not sure it will work, and hoping that it will not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.

    Better get on with a general election then! :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently Ladbrokes were offering 10/1 yesterday on turnout in B&R being over 60%, which I think it could be. Not sure whether it's still available.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Europa League Latest-

    Aberdeen 3 - Chikhura Sachkere 0

    https://youtu.be/yplpOHHKaC0
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.

    Well it's nice to know people are still using guidebooks instead of just smartphones.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.

    Well it's nice to know people are still using guidebooks instead of just smartphones.
    London is rammed with tourists right now. I guess the cheap £ makes it especially seductive.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/WelshDalaiLama/status/1157001779634216960
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Europa League Latest-

    Aberdeen 3 - Chikhura Sachkere 0

    https://youtu.be/yplpOHHKaC0

    Chikhura Sachkere? Who are they? :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    Byronic said:

    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.

    The riots of 2011 were all about the "Yoofs" and their EMA - Electrical Merchandise Allowance.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Europa League Latest-

    Aberdeen 3 - Chikhura Sachkere 0

    https://youtu.be/yplpOHHKaC0

    Chikhura Sachkere? Who are they? :)
    I misspelled, they're from Georgia - I was going to just call them Cheeky Shakira anyway
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    timmo said:

    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
    The Labour vote must have entirely collapsed. Will this finally trigger Corbyn's resignation?*

    *No.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    timmo said:

    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
    Based on?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    edited August 2019
    Byronic said:

    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.

    And sometimes there are pockets of contentment and affluence that carry on quite unaware of civil disorder elsewhere. Happy drinkers etc are often quite a misleading indicator.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    You can now get 29 on the Tory in Brecon on Betfair
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevin_lang/status/1156966414005219328

    What idiot wrote that?

    Surely all the world knows it is D. Lloyd George and A. Bonar Law.

    Also Arthur Balfour appears to be missing from that list.

    Edit - ah, I see the full list is only available to those who click in the photo.
    B. Law.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gardenwalker said:

    Byronic said:

    A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.

    It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.

    And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.

    And sometimes there are pockets of contentment and affluence that carry on quite unaware of civil disorder elsewhere. Happy drinkers etc are often quite a misleading indicator.
    My biggest, strangest memory of the 7/7 bombs was the way people kept happily eating and drinking in restaurants, all day, literally around the corner from the bomb sites.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 965
    See the Lib Dems are claiming wonderful reception on the Brecon dorsteps today, whatever that means. Mind you they would say that wouldn't they.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1156998716190076928?s=21

    I'm sure he can fall back on one of his other jobs.
    Hmm. Is the Boy Wonder going to be a wee bit annoyed with Boris for this omission? How might that displeasure make itself visible?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    MikeSmithson said:

    You can now get 29 on the Tory in Brecon on Betfair

    And whoevers ramping LDs 60pc plus can get 27 on Betfair
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,345
    Byronic said:


    London is rammed with tourists right now. I guess the cheap £ makes it especially seductive.

    And it's probably only going to get cheaper
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Big man Sam Cosgrove gets his hattrick.

    All together now-

    "We've taken our team into Europe....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    theakes said:

    See the Lib Dems are claiming wonderful reception on the Brecon dorsteps today, whatever that means. Mind you they would say that wouldn't they.

    Wales is probably the most Bregretty and Bremorseful place in Brexit Britain

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47394303

    It is unsurprising that a Remain candidate, given a clear run by all Remain parties, is doing very well in this bellwether just-about-Leave Welsh seat.

    I don't think it will have much effect on the wider scene, unless the Tories are VERY badly beaten, and/or Labour lose their deposit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    timmo said:

    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
    That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,345
    MikeSmithson said:

    You can now get 29 on the Tory in Brecon on Betfair

    32 now. (I just got £3 at 34)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    timmo said:

    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
    7/2 LD over 50% with Shadsy still, if you believe it :)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    dixiedean said:

    timmo said:

    Byronic said:

    timmo said:

    Big win coming up.for Lib Dems.

    How big?
    Near 60% for them
    That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
    PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
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