7/2 LD over 50% with Shadsy still, if you believe it
No candidate, on these boundaries, has ever got over 50% of the vote in Brecon and Radnor. It seems a little unlikely, albeit not impossible in these febrile times, that this will change tonight. It would take all Labour's votes plus enormous direct switching (as in, one in five voters) from the Tories to get the Liberal Democrats there.
Hello. I’m delurking after several years of obsessive PB-watching with a comment apropos the previous post, and doubts cast on the bullet-spitting Tories. I was staying in the area on holiday from Monday to Wednesday. An activist told me that Boris Johnson was supposed to be in town on Wednesday – a crowd had been whipped up and 15 police officers on duty. But he cancelled. Later the hotel owner told me there had been a couple of armoured vehicles parked up all day too.
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
7/2 LD over 50% with Shadsy still, if you believe it
No candidate, on these boundaries, has ever got over 50% of the vote in Brecon and Radnor. It seems a little unlikely, albeit not impossible, that this will start tonight.
timmo is using special "Lib Dem arithmetic" to get to 60 per cent.
That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
The leadership may be, but there's a good chance their voters won't. If they had been willing to vote Liberal Democrat for tactical reasons, they would have been doing so before now.
OT, I'm watching the Panorama on Boeing. I'd not seen the recording the APA took of their meeting with the Boeing exec team. It's appalling, morally and professionally, how badly they've handled this situation from beginning to end. The director in charge of the 737MAX program deserves a corporate manslaughter charge.
Hello. I’m delurking after several years of obsessive PB-watching with a comment apropos the previous post, and doubts cast on the bullet-spitting Tories. I was staying in the area on holiday from Monday to Wednesday. An activist told me that Boris Johnson was supposed to be in town on Wednesday – a crowd had been whipped up and 15 police officers on duty. But he cancelled. Later the hotel owner told me there had been a couple of armoured vehicles parked up all day too.
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
Interesting! glad you have broken your posting duck... 😎
Hello. I’m delurking after several years of obsessive PB-watching with a comment apropos the previous post, and doubts cast on the bullet-spitting Tories. I was staying in the area on holiday from Monday to Wednesday. An activist told me that Boris Johnson was supposed to be in town on Wednesday – a crowd had been whipped up and 15 police officers on duty. But he cancelled. Later the hotel owner told me there had been a couple of armoured vehicles parked up all day too.
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
Hello! And congrats on a very interesting field report as your first post.
7/2 LD over 50% with Shadsy still, if you believe it
No candidate, on these boundaries, has ever got over 50% of the vote in Brecon and Radnor. It seems a little unlikely, albeit not impossible, that this will start tonight.
timmo is using special "Lib Dem arithmetic" to get to 60 per cent.
I wonder what the Tories will use as a dead cat for overnight and tomorrow to deflect a defeat in the by-election? Maybe Boris will be overheard in his No.10 flat knocking over some wine and staining taxpayer funded furniture whilst telling someone to "get off my fucking laptop...."
Hello. I’m delurking after several years of obsessive PB-watching with a comment apropos the previous post, and doubts cast on the bullet-spitting Tories. I was staying in the area on holiday from Monday to Wednesday. An activist told me that Boris Johnson was supposed to be in town on Wednesday – a crowd had been whipped up and 15 police officers on duty. But he cancelled. Later the hotel owner told me there had been a couple of armoured vehicles parked up all day too.
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
I would have thought - although Ian would have more direct knowledge - that the Liberal Democrat strength is concentrated in Brecon, Presteigne, Hay, Builth and Llandrindod. Meanwhile Labour would be strong in Ystradgynlais and Rhayader (which is a quarrying town) Plaid Cymru in the western valleys out towards Tregaron and the Conservatives everywhere else.
That's a generalisation - there will be Conservatives in Brecon as there are Greens in Llandeglau and Plaid voters in Crickhowell - but that does mean that it isn't surprising that Brecon was dominated by the Liberal Democrats. (And it also shows that the Brexit Party are morons if they thought that was fertile ground for them.)
So I wouldn't take that as too typical.
What is interesting is your suggestion the local populace is fed up. That might benefit the Liberal Democrats because this is one constituency where I would guess - although I could be wrong - that they would dominate the postal vote, and I suspect this is where timmo's implausible rumours have come from.
That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
The leadership may be, but there's a good chance their voters won't. If they had been willing to vote Liberal Democrat for tactical reasons, they would have been doing so before now.
Wouldn't the PC voters who felt like that just sit it out, in the circumstances? Can't see the BJ-led Tory party being a big attraction.
7/2 LD over 50% with Shadsy still, if you believe it
No candidate, on these boundaries, has ever got over 50% of the vote in Brecon and Radnor. It seems a little unlikely, albeit not impossible, that this will start tonight.
timmo is using special "Lib Dem arithmetic" to get to 60 per cent.
We will.see
Mind you the Newbury by-election was an unprecedented victory 25 years plus ago.
That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
The leadership may be, but there's a good chance their voters won't. If they had been willing to vote Liberal Democrat for tactical reasons, they would have been doing so before now.
Wouldn't the PC voters who felt like that just sit it out, in the circumstances? Can't see the BJ-led Tory party being a big attraction.
Mostly. Some might vote Tory out of sheer cussedness, bearing in mind the majority of Plaid voters would be farmers and they will probably know Chris Davies quite well personally. But mostly I would have thought they will not vote.
That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
The leadership may be, but there's a good chance their voters won't. If they had been willing to vote Liberal Democrat for tactical reasons, they would have been doing so before now.
Wouldn't the PC voters who felt like that just sit it out, in the circumstances? Can't see the BJ-led Tory party being a big attraction.
Well, they might think the best hope for Welsh independence is a No Deal Brexit (after all, the SNP do).
So, if they want Welsh independence above anything else, they might well vote for a Boris-led Tory party.
Hello. I’m delurking after several years of obsessive PB-watching with a comment apropos the previous post, and doubts cast on the bullet-spitting Tories. I was staying in the area on holiday from Monday to Wednesday. An activist told me that Boris Johnson was supposed to be in town on Wednesday – a crowd had been whipped up and 15 police officers on duty. But he cancelled. Later the hotel owner told me there had been a couple of armoured vehicles parked up all day too.
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
Interesting! glad you have broken your posting duck... 😎
Did a bit of phoning for Brecon tonight, a lot of people already voted and been phoned umpteen times as is par for the course for by election campaigns.
Tory vote reasonably solid but had a couple of Remainers voting LD and 1 voting LD over the expenses row. I expect a LD gain but the Tories to be closer than the previous poll suggested
That would be remarkable. Picking up all Labour, PC votes, plus 10% of the electorate off the Tories...
PC aren't running, and are backing the LD candidate
The leadership may be, but there's a good chance their voters won't. If they had been willing to vote Liberal Democrat for tactical reasons, they would have been doing so before now.
Wouldn't the PC voters who felt like that just sit it out, in the circumstances? Can't see the BJ-led Tory party being a big attraction.
Well, they might think the best hope for Welsh independence is a No Deal Brexit (after all, the SNP do).
So, if they want Welsh independence above anything else, they might well vote for a Boris-led Tory party.
Wales voted Leave and for the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
Yup, though I suspect sustained No Deal puts Corbyn in Number 10.
The biggest beneficiaries of No Deal would likely be the LDs not Corbyn if it goes badly
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
Yup, though I suspect sustained No Deal puts Corbyn in Number 10.
The biggest beneficiaries of No Deal would likely be the LDs not Corbyn if it goes badly
Very good point. If Brexit happens, and it is a total disaster, and there is a GE straight after, the LDs would have a very good chance of winning that election, against Corbyn and Boris.
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
I am not sure about that, the only Labour leader I think could beat Boris is David Miliband and he is not even an MP.
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
So, the Tories' survival depends on Labour being madder than they are?
Yup, though I suspect sustained No Deal puts Corbyn in Number 10.
The biggest beneficiaries of No Deal would likely be the LDs not Corbyn if it goes badly
Very good point. If Brexit happens, and it is a total disaster, and there is a GE straight after, the LDs would have a very good chance of winning that election, against Corbyn and Boris.
Extraordinary!
Indeed if full fat Brexit goes badly may as well go full fat Remain with the LDs, not halfway house with Corbyn
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
I am not sure about that, the only Labour leader I think could beat Boris is David Miliband and he is not even an MP.
I would have said Chuka but he is now a LD
Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips... neither of whom is ever going to be LAbour leader in the real world of course.
There would be no possible doubt about this result if Roger Williams were standing.
Why isn't he?
That occurred to me the other day. It is an excellent question.
He may not want to, of course. He is past seventy and may not want to walk into the shambles that is Westminster, and who could blame him?
But still, they should have made every effort.
The farming vote will decide the election. Roger Williams is not the only LibDem farmer in B&R.
I have no idea why the LibDems choose an apparatchik from outside the constituency.
I believe - although I could be wrong - that she effectively chose herself, on the grounds that she is the leader of the Welsh Party and it's very silly that the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats is basically a parish councillor.
If true, that shows she's a bad leader.
Whether true or not, her constant bungling about the constituency boundaries and her own links to it have just been embarrassing.
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
I am not sure about that, the only Labour leader I think could beat Boris is David Miliband and he is not even an MP.
I would have said Chuka but he is now a LD
Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips... neither of whom is ever going to be LAbour leader in the real world of course.
I think Boris would still beat them, Cooper is a Brownite with little charisma and Jess Phillips looks like Kathy Burke
This Ipsos MORI polling kinda backs up the polling Deltapoll found last weekend, Johnson isn't as unpopular as Corbyn but he's screwed the moment Labour ditch Corbyn.
I am not sure about that, the only Labour leader I think could beat Boris is David Miliband and he is not even an MP.
I would have said Chuka but he is now a LD
Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips... neither of whom is ever going to be LAbour leader in the real world of course.
Watching Yvette Cooper during the Lab leadership contest she was appalling, i have seen nothing in the interim period to suggest she has learnt any lessons.
A warm evening in London. Beer gardens full of happy drinkers, spilling cheerily on to the pavements. Tourists wander by, consulting guide books.
It is a picture of contentment, affluence and ease. It is hard to believe this country will be roiled with civil disorder and almost-famine in four months.
And then I remember the riots of 2011. And I do wonder.
Well it's nice to know people are still using guidebooks instead of just smartphones.
London is rammed with tourists right now. I guess the cheap £ makes it especially seductive.
They are probably taking a last chance to see the world's greatest city before it all goes tits up.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
Not correct. Under Alec Douglas- Home the Tories lost the Luton by election in November 1963 on the same day he was elected for Kinross & West Perthshire - ie less than a month after becoming PM.
That really would be a sensational result, but it would also be very much from left field.
If they win, they're just about meeting the expectations left by a duff campaign (sorry, Ian, but it has been) and a dismal candidate. If they win by more than 2-3%, they're exceeding expectations.
If they win by 60% or any margin over 20%, pile on Swinson for next PM.
Comments
I was struck by the massive activity of the Brexit Party in Brecon. They even drove their massive bus (presumably back from the Cardiff mechanics) through the tiny town one-way system. The young hotel receptionist was laughing derisively about how it’d got stuck the day before, so that story had local traction.
There were LD posters all over Brecon itself, Tory posters slightly outnumbered LD in the fields on the way to Hay. (And I saw one BXP and two Labour in houses.) Activists aside, I rather got the impression that the residents were jaded by the whole affair and was very surprised to hear how high the usual turnout is in this constituency, as would otherwise have assumed t/o of about 50% for this. My guess is that high t/o would benefit the Conservatives as the LD vote is likely to be captured by the recall petition numbers (??). There was absolutely no sign of Con canvassers by the way – not a blue rosette to be seen.
That's a generalisation - there will be Conservatives in Brecon as there are Greens in Llandeglau and Plaid voters in Crickhowell - but that does mean that it isn't surprising that Brecon was dominated by the Liberal Democrats. (And it also shows that the Brexit Party are morons if they thought that was fertile ground for them.)
So I wouldn't take that as too typical.
What is interesting is your suggestion the local populace is fed up. That might benefit the Liberal Democrats because this is one constituency where I would guess - although I could be wrong - that they would dominate the postal vote, and I suspect this is where timmo's implausible rumours have come from.
Thank you, and welcome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Newbury_by-election
So, if they want Welsh independence above anything else, they might well vote for a Boris-led Tory party.
But it would probably have to be around 30% to see a Liberal Democrat share of 60%. I would be surprised - I'm anticipating turnout of around 55-60%.
Tory vote reasonably solid but had a couple of Remainers voting LD and 1 voting LD over the expenses row. I expect a LD gain but the Tories to be closer than the previous poll suggested
Boris doing the Sir Robin would suggest that he wasn't confident of a good outcome:
https://youtu.be/BZwuTo7zKM8
There would be no possible doubt about this result if Roger Williams were standing.
Why isn't he?
Extraordinary!
I would have said Chuka but he is now a LD
But still, they should have made every effort.
I have no idea why the LibDems choose an apparatchnik from outside the constituency.
If true, that shows she's a bad leader.
Whether true or not, her constant bungling about the constituency boundaries and her own links to it have just been embarrassing.
NEW THREAD
Hilary Benn is a much better candidate,
1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?