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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and

SystemSystem Posts: 12,604
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

Norden on Rochdale (Con defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 42, Con 13, Lib Dem 5 (Labour overall majority of 24)
Last Electoral Cycle (2010 – 2012)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    Don't you mean E-day minus 7?

    :)
  • BoothmanBoothman Posts: 13
    CON hold,
    IND gain,
    LAB hold
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    welshowl - leaving the EMU is a long way off the political agenda in Spain - it's boiling frog syndrome.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,000
    Evening all :)

    No particular thoughts on today's elections and as I'm in London, no real insight into next week either.

    Reasonable economic news today but one good quarter does not a recovery make and while a good performance by Services has helped, other areas remain desperately disappointing. I'm sure Tim and Avery/Seth have been batting statistics, slogans and solioquys about all day but I thought the Evening Standard raised a more than valid when the thorny old question of interest rates was raised.

    We've "enjoyed" over a decade and a half of incredibly low interest rates - while cheap food and cheap fuel have disappeared with the recession along with endlessly-rising asset values, cheap money has remained one of the key elements of our economic culture. Historically low interest rates have been lousy for savers but for borrowers and especially those with mortgages it's been a wonderful time - debt has been cleared down by the sensible while others have taken on more commitment on low rates.

    Mrs Stodge and I are paying 0.99% interest currently and to be honest we've sacrificed home improvement on the altar of debt reduction. What happens when those rates start rising again - what happens at 3%, 5% or even 8%? Yes, we can inflate down the debt (and that's a strategy of sorts) but the Lawson boom fell apart on the twin rocks of inflation and high interest rates and a property bubble.

    We're a long way from that and, to be honest, I'm more concerned that the slowing global economy and our continued vulnerability to the gyrations of the oil price as I observed a couple of nights ago.

    That said, a good day for the Coalition - not a bad day for Labour particularly.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    welshowl - leaving the EMU is a long way off the political agenda in Spain - it's boiling frog syndrome.

    The Speccy has anti-EU parties at 15% in Spain.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-next-for-the-anti-euro-parties/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,414
    In two of those seats the LibDems appear to be staying home, not voting for anyone else.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The Newcastle - Castle 2012 result is wrong: the Ind and Labour figures should be inverted.
    The 2 candidates had the same surname and the council confused them when they put the results online in May 2012. They changed it later.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    edited April 2013
    Whats going on with the NHS in Parliament today, quite a few of my friends on FB are talking about it, yet hardly any mention of it on BBC or in the papers?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,578
    Geordie Racer was class. DJ Mickey Stone wasn't it? Although Through the Dragon's eye was even better. Happy memories - thanks for stirring them.

    I vaguely know Hurdsfield in Macc; if UKIP are going to make breakthroughs against Labour it's the perfect place.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TGOHF said:

    welshowl - leaving the EMU is a long way off the political agenda in Spain - it's boiling frog syndrome.

    I'm sure you're right. Spain has invested hugely since the dark days of Franco in becoming a "normal" European country and in many ways has succeeded greatly. It's a different world ( thank God) from 1975 there. However, they seemiingly got into the mind set of "more Europe is always good" ( they are not alone!). "Some (limited) Europe" IMO is good but not unthinkingly!!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    anotherDave said:

    TGOHF said:

    welshowl - leaving the EMU is a long way off the political agenda in Spain - it's boiling frog syndrome.

    The Speccy has anti-EU parties at 15% in Spain.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-next-for-the-anti-euro-parties/
    Yes - bizarrely one of the lowest graphed in that article - some way to go before they are in Grillo territory - rising yes, slowly yes.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    LOL. I got a disagree!
    Write to the Returning Officer
    http://www2.newcastle.gov.uk/election2012.nsf/showward?readform&CASTLE
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    TGOHF said:

    anotherDave said:



    Yes - bizarrely one of the lowest graphed in that article - some way to go before they are in Grillo territory - rising yes, slowly yes.

    Who are the Spanish anti-EU parties? Don't even think IU are euro-sceptic.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speccie says "eurosceptic" parties - not BOO ers.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    anotherDave said:

    TGOHF said:

    welshowl - leaving the EMU is a long way off the political agenda in Spain - it's boiling frog syndrome.

    The Speccy has anti-EU parties at 15% in Spain.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-next-for-the-anti-euro-parties/
    Yes - bizarrely one of the lowest graphed in that article - some way to go before they are in Grillo territory - rising yes, slowly yes.
    Perhaps not that far.

    " In Spain, trust in the EU fell from 65% to 20% since 2007 while mistrust soared to 72% from 23%"

    http://euobserver.com/tickers/119934

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/trust-eu-falls-record-low
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:
    "According to one of his family members Tamerlan Tsarnaev was, among other things, ‘angry that the world pictures Islam as a violent religion.’ His efforts to refute this charge included planting bombs in the middle of a family sports event in Boston, killing – among others – an eight year old boy.

    The case brings to mind that of Muzzammil Hassan from western New York. Hassan was the founder of Bridges TV in the US – a station set up to help ‘non-Muslims overcome the negative images they may have of both Muslims and Islam.’ Mr Hassan was subsequently convicted and sent to prison for beheading his wife."
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/04/islamophobia-is-a-government-priority-what-about-islamism/
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    welshowl said:

    nobody under 80 I know drinks sherry very often these days

    You obviously mix in the wrong circles. A good chilled fino, preferably accompanying jamón serrano or some of the other classics of Spanish tapas, is one of the great pleasures of life, and is rather fashionable to boot.

    But I agree with the main point of your post!
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2013
    An interesting matter will be heard tomorrow at the Central Criminal Court, at not before 2.30 pm.
    Before the Honourable Mr Justice Sweeney
    For Hearing: U20130389 Associated Newspapers Limited v Crown Prosecution Service
    This will determine how interesting the consequences of R v Huhne & Pryce will be.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    "The UK Independence Party will be the biggest gainers in next week's Lincolnshire County Council election – according to an Echo poll."

    Read more: http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/POLL-UKIP-surge-expected-Conservatives-rule/story-18799665-detail/story.html

    Con 32, Lab 19, LD 10, UKIP 21, Ind 17

    EDIT
    2009 Result
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincolnshire_County_Council_election,_2009

    Con 47, Lab 11, LD 19, UKIP 3
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    RichardNabavi said:

    welshowl said:

    nobody under 80 I know drinks sherry very often these days

    You obviously mix in the wrong circles. A good chilled fino, preferably accompanying jamón serrano or some of the other classics of Spanish tapas, is one of the great pleasures of life, and is rather fashionable to boot.

    But I agree with the main point of your post!
    Point taken. A hot Spanish day with some tapas and ice cold fino is a rare treat ( there's a great place off the Plaza Nueva in Granada - best jamon Serrano EVER), but most of the aged brigade I know insist on thimbles of "vicar's sweet brown sherry" and frankly if that's the best they can market I'm surprised unemployment in Jerez isn't more than 40% sadly. Still I expect my in laws would quaff more if it were more keenly priced in Pesetas rather than Deutschmarks as it effectively is so to speak.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Good evening, everyone.

    Who wrote the article?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    edited April 2013
    I see my subtle attempts to introduce musical references into threads has had a positive effect on other thread writers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1urq4Vb0XM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Who wrote the article?

    Harry Hayfield.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Off topic, Iron Man 3, greatest Superhero movie ever made.

    I've already seen it four times.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria.

    A couple of weeks ago when the Times and Le Figaro ran well planted stories about the confirmation via dirt samples of chemical weapons use in Syria, I speculated this was a clear move to put pressure on the US, who knew themselves what the results were but were saying nothing. For the US the White House fine words about red lines would have to be backed up if case proven or effectively the US President would have to climb off the high horse.

    The signs of readiness for a shift of position for the Americans, however, were already there. I also mentioned a bit back the planned appearance of 200 US troops in Jordan, a forward running group designed to be the organisational core around which plans could be set for anything upto 100 times that number of US forces. They joined a long established US SOF presence in Jordan. That move was partially defensive, designed to get in a warning to Assad not to try anything rash in advance of a TV interview where he was going to slate Jordan in particular. Behind it, however was a clear contingency.

    Only 24 hours after denying the Israelis had supplied the Americans with an additional assessment showing very strong evidence of chemical weapons use, the US defence secretary then decides to say yes it looks as if a mix of chemicals have been used. Significantly Sarin was one of those mentioned (the others would be considered 'less lethal' agents such as BZ). Congress was being informed. Sarin takes things into a somewhat different dimension and by all accounts the soil samples have been backed up by blood samples.

    By both the admission and also the informing of Congress the administration is leaving itself less and less room to let things slide by. In recent weeks on Capitol Hill some senior ranking Democrats have been taking a more public hawkish line over the Syria issue. One reason is that they themselves were aware of the emerging chemical weapons assessment was.

    The White House wonks, however, are throwing in some grey as the White House will seek to avoid any whole hearted decision for as long as possible. There doesnt seem to be much grey about evidence of Sarin use but 'much about the conflict' is apparently unclear. Thus it needs further investigation and really the UN should do an investigation with it. Nothing kicks a can down a road like invoking the UN who are not in position to properly investigate because the Syrian government said they were not having it.

    The truth is Syria is an extremely lethal conflict, with a high refugee count, seeping spillover of violence into neighboring countries and showing no obvious sign of an end at the moment. The US doesnt want to do anything of note but it also knows that if it continues to tinker (and literally every last supply detail is going across the Presidents desk and has done for months), its leaving things to the winds. The only thing an admission about chemical weapons is going to do is increase support for something to be done, which may be all the US is looking for, whether it is direct or indirect in nature.

    On the battlefield, Assad's forces with some serious Hizbollah infantry support has scored notable local successes in the last two weeks, successes that could become strategic to his continued survival if he can hold on to his gains.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Ah, thanks, Mr. Eagles. I know he usually does this slot but the lack of signature and Lib Dem mention meant I wans't sure.

    Anyway, thanks to Mr. Hayfield for this, and the nationwide locals should prove interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    On the march with Red Ed

    The real problem with Ed Miliband is not how he talks but what he thinks

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21576650-real-problem-ed-miliband-not-how-he-talks-what-he-thinks-march-red-ed
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the march with Red Ed

    The real problem with Ed Miliband is not how he talks but what he thinks

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21576650-real-problem-ed-miliband-not-how-he-talks-what-he-thinks-march-red-ed

    The affable son of a Marxist intellectual, Mr Miliband is tougher than he seems. Tony Blair was reminded of that last week, after the former Labour prime minister made some barelyveiled criticisms of his successor in a magazine article. In a private meeting, arranged shortly after the two men attended Margaret Thatcher’s funeral, Mr Miliband told him to butt out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ah, thanks, Mr. Eagles. I know he usually does this slot but the lack of signature and Lib Dem mention meant I wans't sure.

    Anyway, thanks to Mr. Hayfield for this, and the nationwide locals should prove interesting.

    Hopefully Harry will give us analysis of every seat/council being contested next week.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    On previous topic: It was my recollection that it was the Tories who backs the FPTP system.

    After 2015, will it change ?

    Here in PBToryland, would Nabavi create his "clause 4" moment ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ah, thanks, Mr. Eagles. I know he usually does this slot but the lack of signature and Lib Dem mention meant I wans't sure.

    Anyway, thanks to Mr. Hayfield for this, and the nationwide locals should prove interesting.

    Hopefully Harry will give us analysis of every seat/council being contested next week.
    This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    surbiton said:

    On previous topic: It was my recollection that it was the Tories who backs the FPTP system.

    After 2015, will it change ?

    Here in PBToryland, would Nabavi create his "clause 4" moment ?

    We are all PB Tories now!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Mr. T, is that surprising, though?

    Look at Spain. It's in a dire state of affairs and at increasing risk of actually disintegrating. For all the SNP's dummy-spitting over debt liability the independence debate here is actually very civilised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    Rhode Island legalises gay marriage
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22284462
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    TSE - As he is perfectly entitled to, Major had dreadful problems with Maggie's backseat driving and, unlike Major, Ed M was not even the Blairite candidate. Ex-PMs need to know when to retire gracefully, the odd helpful comment here and there is fine, but let your successors take their own course!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    LOL. I got a disagree!
    Write to the Returning Officer
    http://www2.newcastle.gov.uk/election2012.nsf/showward?readform&CASTLE

    It could only happen on PB Andrea.

    I fear your partisan attention to the facts doesn't sit well with some impartial PBtories.

    Most regrettable. ;)

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Mick_Pork said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    LOL. I got a disagree!
    Write to the Returning Officer
    http://www2.newcastle.gov.uk/election2012.nsf/showward?readform&CASTLE

    It could only happen on PB Andrea.

    I fear your partisan attention to the facts doesn't sit well with some impartial PBtories.

    Most regrettable. ;)

    The fans of It's Time to Put Newcastle First are out there! We must pay attention
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    welshowl said:

    PS. Do the Eurocrats ever ponder the reality of the disaster being inflicted on people and the damage this insane currency is inflicting on European harmony??

    Perhaps the tories should bang on about Europe yet again?

    What could possibly go wrong?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    The fans of It's Time to Put Newcastle First are out there! We must pay attention

    Indeed, they are tenacious.
    newcastlefirst 1hr

    newcastlefirst Not long left to vote for Newcastle First candidates John Gordon and Tim Gilks in the Castle and South Heaton by-elections.
    I'm intrigued by this.
    newcastlefirst Disgraceful comments from Lib Dems about Newcastle First candidate in South Heaton. Bit rich from Cameron's poodles.
    What vile calumny has been visited upon them by Lib Dem black ops?

    We must investigate. ;)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,578
    Oh my word! I know this is off-topic, but I couldn't resist looking at the Wikipedia entry for Geordie Racer, and had a look at some of the actors in it, wondering if I'd ever seen anything with them in since.

    One of the lead characters was a radio DJ Mickey Stone, who narrated the educational bits and came to the rescue in the final episode. The ultimate good guy. But looking at the actor's profile tonight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Rowell it turns out that he was imprisoned last year on charges of indecent assault and indecent images of children. The charges are historic, and the offences can't have been much after he made Geordie Racer.

    A small and happy part of my childhood died this evening.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Mick

    More intriguing...why are the LibDems spending their time campaigning in South Heaton?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
    I'm sure if we ask him nicely, he will.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    welshowl said:

    PS. Do the Eurocrats ever ponder the reality of the disaster being inflicted on people and the damage this insane currency is inflicting on European harmony??

    Perhaps the tories should bang on about Europe yet again?

    What could possibly go wrong?

    No I think you're right (irony noted), from their point of view it would not be smart. "It's the economy here stupid" that will win and lose 2015 not the price of jamon Serrano in Malaga. But: geez the utter open ended misery folk are having imposed due to a doctrine to put the politics of European "integration", over the economics of reality is an issue not to be ignored by the rest of us, not only of a sense of needing healthy neighbours for our own well being, but also out of a sense of sheer pure altruism. The 18 yr old in Madrid never voted for this nonsense but they're the ones carrying the can for Euro flights of fancy from 20/25 years ago and made flesh (sadly) at the turn of the century.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
    I'm sure if we ask him nicely, he will.
    Just listing all of them will run out of space :-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
    I'm sure if we ask him nicely, he will.
    Just listing all of them will run out of space :-)
    Indeed, I've not been on PB for the last two days, has much happened in the world of politics?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    A rather nice tale of heroism from WWII:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22298739

    It's the story of destroying a heavy water factory. D20 is needed to make atomic bombs (as I learn playing the first Medal of Honor[sp] game), and knocking it out was critical to stopping a certain moustachioed lunatic getting such weaponry.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    welshowl said:

    PS. Do the Eurocrats ever ponder the reality of the disaster being inflicted on people and the damage this insane currency is inflicting on European harmony??

    Perhaps the tories should bang on about Europe yet again?

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Porky do I take it you're all for Europe then?

    If so please explain why.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
    But won't a large proportion of these by-elections be in the same areas as the County Councils and thus also be counted on Friday? Ours in Claygate will be one. Do you have the breakdown?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Mick

    More intriguing...why are the LibDems spending their time campaigning in South Heaton?

    They say they are still very active in the area and who could doubt it when we are reminded of this fearless and classic bit of lib dem local campaigning action.

    http://newcastle-libdems.org.uk/en/article/2007/131829/labour-rubbished-lib-dems-have-100-record

    Stephen Psallidas stands in a spotless back lane, which is devoid of wheelie bins after a Lib Dem campaign to encourage residents to take them in

    I'm almost tempted to call that a picture perfect bit of lib demmery, except the man in the photo is not pointing at anything and appears shockingly beardless. ;)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    JohnO said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Something like 119 by-elections next week! But 1 Con returned unopposed in Guildford. So just 118

    Let's hope Harry has time to cover them all next week.
    Yes. Especially as many counties count on Friday, the 118 by-elections can give us something overnight
    But won't a large proportion of these by-elections be in the same areas as the County Councils and thus also be counted on Friday? Ours in Claygate will be one. Do you have the breakdown?
    Oh yeah, bastards! At first sight, it's less than 20 in areas without CC elections.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    Another crucial and heartening poll for Tories:

    ComRes/ITV News: blame for current econ sitn - last Lab Govt 37%(-), Coalition Govt 16%(-3), both 32%(-1) http://ht.ly/kqqRy

    Labour STILL blamed. And I just saw Ed Balls on TV talking about "this terrible recession".

    Ahem.

    The Labour blame figure is not the interesting one, probably current Tory and Lib Dem voters.

    It is the Coalition blame figure that is interesting, more than half the current Labour vote do do blame the coalition exclusively.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    edited April 2013
    For Scots, fans of Whisky, or fans of history

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/whisky-galore-bottles-go-auction-1853744
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    nigel4england said:



    Porky do I take it you're all for Europe then?

    If so please explain why.

    I'm certainly all for the tories banging on about Europe because it always ends the same way.
    Badly.

    After the hilarity of the flounce that wasn't and the dawning realisation of tory MPs that Cammie's Cast Iron refrendum pledge is somewhat less than believable it's difficult to measure the gullibility of tory eurosceptics on any kind of scale without it going off the charts. Luckily the May local elections and UKIP may help there.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:



    Porky do I take it you're all for Europe then?

    If so please explain why.

    I'm certainly all for the tories baging on about Europe because it always ends the same way.
    Badly.

    After the hilarity of the flounce that wasn't and the dawning realisation of tory MPs that Cammie's Cast Iron refrendum pledge is somewhat less than believable it's difficult to measure the gullibility of tory eurosceptics on any kind of scale without it going off the charts. Luckily the May local elections and UKIP may help there.
    So do you think Ed should go to the country on 'no referendum' manifesto?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    If the problem in the euro area can be solved with fiscal union, why don't they just get on with it! Don't they realise that they are putting an entire generation of people off the Euro idea by keeping it in this limbo situation.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    The Cheshire East Labour candidate has been shortlisted for Euro elections.

    Last time he was the top male candidate outside sitting MEPs (Incumbent, Incumbent, Woman, Man)...now 1 sitting MEP is retiring and Labour should aim at gain a third seat too....so 1 incumbent, 1 woman, 1 man or 1 incumbent, 1 man and 1 woman....top new woman in 2014 will likely be the same one (Therese Griffin) who missed out in 2004 and 2009....but this chap faces a potential strong challenger from Cllr Khan from Manchester to be the top man (and so being number 3...or 2...but I guess Griffin will get 2, she always stands)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Mr. D, it may be that they feel letting things get worse will increase the chances of an effective United States of Europe coming about.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,322
    @morris_dancer

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/9681540/Birger-Stromsheim.html

    Obituary of Birgir Stromsheim who died in 2012 at the age of 101, another member of an extraordinary group of Norwegian Resistance fighters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. D, it may be that they feel letting things get worse will increase the chances of an effective United States of Europe coming about.

    Hadn't thought of it that way...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Sadly, Dr. Spyn, I cannot read it due to the Telegraph limit on 20 free articles per month.

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Trust of politician to see country through current economic situation (net)

    Osborne: -33
    Cameron: -16
    Clegg: -45
    Miliband: -30
    Balls: -40

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_22nd_April.pdf
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    Farage on QT
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,322
    @morris_dancer

    If you clear your browsing history you can have another 20 articles for nothing.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    Luciana Berger telling us people are *really suffering* on BBC QT, as she flicks her obviously-£100-haircut.

    She dated Sion Simon. And Chucka Umunna. But it was denied she dated Euan Blair too.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    I guess Western intervention in Syria more likely now?

    Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:



    Porky do I take it you're all for Europe then?

    If so please explain why.

    I'm certainly all for the tories baging on about Europe because it always ends the same way.
    Badly.

    After the hilarity of the flounce that wasn't and the dawning realisation of tory MPs that Cammie's Cast Iron refrendum pledge is somewhat less than believable it's difficult to measure the gullibility of tory eurosceptics on any kind of scale without it going off the charts. Luckily the May local elections and UKIP may help there.
    I can see why you'd rather the Tories banged on about Europe, as against your party, the SNP.

    That went well, didn't it? The firm legal advice you did, didn't, did, didn't, er, did, er, didn't, er, oh, uh, didn't take about Scottish EU membership.
    SNP legal advice on the EU:

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Tsl7-TJtPew&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Tsl7-TJtPew
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess Western intervention in Syria more likely now?

    Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece

    Weren't we told yesterday that "hundreds" of EU citizens are fighting alongside the Jihadists in Syria?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    SeanT said:

    Luciana Berger telling us people are *really suffering* on BBC QT, as she flicks her obviously-£100-haircut.

    She dated Sion Simon. And Chucka Umunna. IIRC.

    The Sion Simon who wrote this piece?

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess Western intervention in Syria more likely now?

    Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece

    Weren't we told yesterday that "hundreds" of EU citizens are fighting alongside the Jihadists in Syria?
    Pass, not been following the news.

    Have been all Iron Man 3'd out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess Western intervention in Syria more likely now?

    Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece

    Weren't we told yesterday that "hundreds" of EU citizens are fighting alongside the Jihadists in Syria?
    Pass, not been following the news.

    Have been all Iron Man 3'd out.
    Iron Man 3??? I haven't even watched Iron Man 2! I did see Iron Man 1 on TV a few weeks back. Thought it was rather good.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess Western intervention in Syria more likely now?

    Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece

    Weren't we told yesterday that "hundreds" of EU citizens are fighting alongside the Jihadists in Syria?
    Pass, not been following the news.

    Have been all Iron Man 3'd out.
    Iron Man 3??? I haven't even watched Iron Man 2! I did see Iron Man 1 on TV a few weeks back. Thought it was rather good.
    Iron Man, was very good, Iron Man 2, was good, Iron Man 3, is the Depeche Mode of films.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    Syria and EU story here:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/syria-crisis-hundreds-of-europeans-join-fight-live
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    SeanT said:

    Luciana Berger telling us people are *really suffering* on BBC QT, as she flicks her obviously-£100-haircut.

    She dated Sion Simon. And Chucka Umunna. IIRC.

    The Sion Simon who wrote this piece?

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    That quote will never be forgotten, much like the independents prediction in 2000/2001 that there would never be snow in the UK ever again. Titter.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    nigel4england said:

    So do you think Ed should go to the country on 'no referendum' manifesto?

    Should he?
    His party isn't likely to go into meltdown over the issue and UKIP are now the perfect outlet for anti-EU voting so it won't make a whole lot of difference to him except in those seats where he will take a bit of a hit from the Kippers. He could easily follow Cammie's formula on a referendum that will only take place after a treaty renegotiations since that treaty is looking pretty unlikely anyway. So it's a very easy way to fudge the issue almost indefinitely. On balance yes, why not? It's harmless enough and might appease a few UKIP/labour waverers voters for his party. Labour's Lisbon backdown didn't kill the labour vote after all and 2015 will still be primarily about the economy.

    Will he?
    Doubtful. Blairite cuckoos like Dan Hodges pushing for it are unlikely to convince little Ed of the wisdom of the move. Though there is some utility for labour to go into the election making it clear they will be campaiging on a pro-EU position like Cammie favours. I don't expect that would help the tories much in marginals as it would likely boost the UKIP vote.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Watched Question Time for 90 seconds before switching over to Newsnight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Syria and EU story here:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/syria-crisis-hundreds-of-europeans-join-fight-live

    Thanks, I was hoping the 500 EU citizens would be more officially sanctioned, rather than random people going out there on their own.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    SeanT said:

    Luciana Berger telling us people are *really suffering* on BBC QT, as she flicks her obviously-£100-haircut.

    She dated Sion Simon. And Chucka Umunna. IIRC.

    The Sion Simon who wrote this piece?

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    That quote will never be forgotten, much like the independents prediction in 2000/2001 that there would never be snow in the UK ever again. Titter.
    I felt so happy when I managed to work that Sion Simon article into a thread header.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Where did Labour find Luciana Berger?

    [Edit: I see Andrea has answered the question who found LB. The answers make my question redundant.]
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,370
    AveryLP said:

    Where did Labour find Luciana Berger?

    McDonalds?
    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The LDs were convinced they were going to gain Liverpool Wavertree at the last election but instead Luciana Berger increased the Labour majority quite considerably.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    I can see why you'd rather the Tories banged on about Europe, as against your party, the SNP.

    That went well, didn't it? The firm legal advice you did, didn't, did, didn't, er, did, er, didn't, er, oh, uh, didn't take about Scottish EU membership.

    It went splendidly thanks because the incompetent fop pulled the rug right out from under SLAB and the No campaigns feet on their hilarious scaremongering over Europe.

    I realise you know very little about how it plays in scottish politics but after Cammie made it clear he wanted to put the continued membership of the EU up for grabs that inept scare story has went very much into the background with SLAB and the tories curiously reluctant to bring it up very much again.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    SeanT said:

    Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.

    lol

    Find many of those on your sex tourist travels do you?

    lol
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    SeanT said:

    Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.

    lol

    Is she the first foreign leader of a 'major' political party? I suppose she is still a subject of HM either way.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Luciana No Stars.

    Pitiful. Truly awful. She does, though, lift the curtain to reveal that THERE IS NO LABOUR ECONOMIC POLICY. Which is going to make the next election fun. But not for Labour.

    Also - Greens, what were you thinking???
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Why are trendy British reporters so obsessed with blaming the Bangladeshi factory disaster on "western consumers"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.

    lol

    Is she the first foreign leader of a 'major' political party? I suppose she is still a subject of HM either way.

    You could argue that Arthur Wellesley has that honour.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,322
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Where did Labour find Luciana Berger?

    [Edit: I see Andrea has answered the question who found LB. The answers make my question redundant.]

    Bargain basket at The Co-Op. Like Ed Balls she is a Lab Co-Op MP.

    Day fees at Habs Girls will be lower than Eton, but still a good education which money can buy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.

    lol

    Is she the first foreign leader of a 'major' political party? I suppose she is still a subject of HM either way.

    You could argue that Arthur Wellesley has that honour.
    Ah yes. I wonder how many there have been in total?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    So do you think Ed should go to the country on 'no referendum' manifesto?

    Should he?
    His party isn't likely to go into meltdown over the issue and UKIP are now the perfect outlet for anti-EU voting so it won't make a whole lot of difference to him except in those seats where he will take a bit of a hit from the Kippers. He could easily follow Cammie's formula on a referendum that will only take place after a treaty renegotiations since that treaty is looking pretty unlikely anyway. So it's a very easy way to fudge the issue almost indefinitely. On balance yes, why not? It's harmless enough and might appease a few UKIP/labour waverers voters for his party. Labour's Lisbon backdown didn't kill the labour vote after all and 2015 will still be primarily about the economy.

    Will he?
    Doubtful. Blairite cuckoos like Dan Hodges pushing for it are unlikely to convince little Ed of the wisdom of the move. Though there is some utility for labour to go into the election making it clear they will be campaiging on a pro-EU position like Cammie favours. I don't expect that would help the tories much in marginals as it would likely boost the UKIP vote.


    If he goes with a no referendum manifesto he will be flying in the face of public opinion, just as he is on welfare. He would be insulting the public by inferring they are too stupid to have a vote, I tell you now the electorate are sick to death of Europe, the 2014 influx of yet more immigrants is timed perfectly to cause maximum chaos in the 2015 election.

    Ed's soft lead is already on the slide and that's without him being exposed to the wider public. If he goes to the country on an 'I know best' manifesto he could be in trouble.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,067
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.

    lol

    Is she the first foreign leader of a 'major' political party? I suppose she is still a subject of HM either way.

    You could argue that Arthur Wellesley has that honour.
    Ah yes. I wonder how many there have been in total?
    JohnLoony will be the man to know the answer to that.

    I've got Tony Stark on the brain, and I know he's not been a UK Party leader, yet.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    dr_spyn said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where did Labour find Luciana Berger?

    I see she comes from Wembley but went to Haberdashers Aske, obviously my old schoo Preston Manor wasn't good enough for her.

    Another 'champagne for me, socialism for you' hypocrite

    [Edit: I see Andrea has answered the question who found LB. The answers make my question redundant.]

    Bargain basket at The Co-Op. Like Ed Balls she is a Lab Co-Op MP.

    Day fees at Habs Girls will be lower than Eton, but still a good education which money can buy.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Jonathan said:

    The Labour blame figure is not the interesting one, probably current Tory and Lib Dem voters.

    It is the Coalition blame figure that is interesting, more than half the current Labour vote do do blame the coalition exclusively.

    Eh? Are you saying that the fact that well over twice as many respondents blamed Labour exclusively than blamed the current government exclusively is good news for Labour?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    Watched Question Time for 90 seconds before switching over to Newsnight.

    I've never been able to watch QT.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    Dude, I look at the POLLS. And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51.

    Would you say, honestly, that the SNP Yes campaign is going well, so far?

    As well as the SNP re-election campaign was going well before the scottish elections in 2011 when they were also losing by double digits there.

    As well as the No to AV was going before that campaign started for real in the final months.

    Dude, I've helped on preliminary campaigning for Yes and the truth is the scottish public simply aren't paying it much attention as yet and the usual response right now is indifference.
    Nor will they focus on it till the final months and weeks.



  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Here come the Romanians and Bulgarians.
This discussion has been closed.

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