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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)
Norden on Rochdale (Con defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 42, Con 13, Lib Dem 5 (Labour overall majority of 24)
Last Electoral Cycle (2010 – 2012)
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IND gain,
LAB hold
PS. Do the Eurocrats ever ponder the reality of the disaster being inflicted on people and the damage this insane currency is inflicting on European harmony??
No particular thoughts on today's elections and as I'm in London, no real insight into next week either.
Reasonable economic news today but one good quarter does not a recovery make and while a good performance by Services has helped, other areas remain desperately disappointing. I'm sure Tim and Avery/Seth have been batting statistics, slogans and solioquys about all day but I thought the Evening Standard raised a more than valid when the thorny old question of interest rates was raised.
We've "enjoyed" over a decade and a half of incredibly low interest rates - while cheap food and cheap fuel have disappeared with the recession along with endlessly-rising asset values, cheap money has remained one of the key elements of our economic culture. Historically low interest rates have been lousy for savers but for borrowers and especially those with mortgages it's been a wonderful time - debt has been cleared down by the sensible while others have taken on more commitment on low rates.
Mrs Stodge and I are paying 0.99% interest currently and to be honest we've sacrificed home improvement on the altar of debt reduction. What happens when those rates start rising again - what happens at 3%, 5% or even 8%? Yes, we can inflate down the debt (and that's a strategy of sorts) but the Lawson boom fell apart on the twin rocks of inflation and high interest rates and a property bubble.
We're a long way from that and, to be honest, I'm more concerned that the slowing global economy and our continued vulnerability to the gyrations of the oil price as I observed a couple of nights ago.
That said, a good day for the Coalition - not a bad day for Labour particularly.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-next-for-the-anti-euro-parties/
The 2 candidates had the same surname and the council confused them when they put the results online in May 2012. They changed it later.
I vaguely know Hurdsfield in Macc; if UKIP are going to make breakthroughs against Labour it's the perfect place.
Write to the Returning Officer
http://www2.newcastle.gov.uk/election2012.nsf/showward?readform&CASTLE
" In Spain, trust in the EU fell from 65% to 20% since 2007 while mistrust soared to 72% from 23%"
http://euobserver.com/tickers/119934
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/trust-eu-falls-record-low
But I agree with the main point of your post!
Read more: http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/POLL-UKIP-surge-expected-Conservatives-rule/story-18799665-detail/story.html
Con 32, Lab 19, LD 10, UKIP 21, Ind 17
EDIT
2009 Result
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincolnshire_County_Council_election,_2009
Con 47, Lab 11, LD 19, UKIP 3
Who wrote the article?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1urq4Vb0XM
I've already seen it four times.
A couple of weeks ago when the Times and Le Figaro ran well planted stories about the confirmation via dirt samples of chemical weapons use in Syria, I speculated this was a clear move to put pressure on the US, who knew themselves what the results were but were saying nothing. For the US the White House fine words about red lines would have to be backed up if case proven or effectively the US President would have to climb off the high horse.
The signs of readiness for a shift of position for the Americans, however, were already there. I also mentioned a bit back the planned appearance of 200 US troops in Jordan, a forward running group designed to be the organisational core around which plans could be set for anything upto 100 times that number of US forces. They joined a long established US SOF presence in Jordan. That move was partially defensive, designed to get in a warning to Assad not to try anything rash in advance of a TV interview where he was going to slate Jordan in particular. Behind it, however was a clear contingency.
Only 24 hours after denying the Israelis had supplied the Americans with an additional assessment showing very strong evidence of chemical weapons use, the US defence secretary then decides to say yes it looks as if a mix of chemicals have been used. Significantly Sarin was one of those mentioned (the others would be considered 'less lethal' agents such as BZ). Congress was being informed. Sarin takes things into a somewhat different dimension and by all accounts the soil samples have been backed up by blood samples.
By both the admission and also the informing of Congress the administration is leaving itself less and less room to let things slide by. In recent weeks on Capitol Hill some senior ranking Democrats have been taking a more public hawkish line over the Syria issue. One reason is that they themselves were aware of the emerging chemical weapons assessment was.
The White House wonks, however, are throwing in some grey as the White House will seek to avoid any whole hearted decision for as long as possible. There doesnt seem to be much grey about evidence of Sarin use but 'much about the conflict' is apparently unclear. Thus it needs further investigation and really the UN should do an investigation with it. Nothing kicks a can down a road like invoking the UN who are not in position to properly investigate because the Syrian government said they were not having it.
The truth is Syria is an extremely lethal conflict, with a high refugee count, seeping spillover of violence into neighboring countries and showing no obvious sign of an end at the moment. The US doesnt want to do anything of note but it also knows that if it continues to tinker (and literally every last supply detail is going across the Presidents desk and has done for months), its leaving things to the winds. The only thing an admission about chemical weapons is going to do is increase support for something to be done, which may be all the US is looking for, whether it is direct or indirect in nature.
On the battlefield, Assad's forces with some serious Hizbollah infantry support has scored notable local successes in the last two weeks, successes that could become strategic to his continued survival if he can hold on to his gains.
Anyway, thanks to Mr. Hayfield for this, and the nationwide locals should prove interesting.
The real problem with Ed Miliband is not how he talks but what he thinks
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21576650-real-problem-ed-miliband-not-how-he-talks-what-he-thinks-march-red-ed
After 2015, will it change ?
Here in PBToryland, would Nabavi create his "clause 4" moment ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
Look at Spain. It's in a dire state of affairs and at increasing risk of actually disintegrating. For all the SNP's dummy-spitting over debt liability the independence debate here is actually very civilised.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22284462
I fear your partisan attention to the facts doesn't sit well with some impartial PBtories.
Most regrettable.
What could possibly go wrong?
We must investigate.
One of the lead characters was a radio DJ Mickey Stone, who narrated the educational bits and came to the rescue in the final episode. The ultimate good guy. But looking at the actor's profile tonight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Rowell it turns out that he was imprisoned last year on charges of indecent assault and indecent images of children. The charges are historic, and the offences can't have been much after he made Geordie Racer.
A small and happy part of my childhood died this evening.
More intriguing...why are the LibDems spending their time campaigning in South Heaton?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22298739
It's the story of destroying a heavy water factory. D20 is needed to make atomic bombs (as I learn playing the first Medal of Honor[sp] game), and knocking it out was critical to stopping a certain moustachioed lunatic getting such weaponry.
If so please explain why.
http://newcastle-libdems.org.uk/en/article/2007/131829/labour-rubbished-lib-dems-have-100-record
Stephen Psallidas stands in a spotless back lane, which is devoid of wheelie bins after a Lib Dem campaign to encourage residents to take them in
I'm almost tempted to call that a picture perfect bit of lib demmery, except the man in the photo is not pointing at anything and appears shockingly beardless.
It is the Coalition blame figure that is interesting, more than half the current Labour vote do do blame the coalition exclusively.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/whisky-galore-bottles-go-auction-1853744
Badly.
After the hilarity of the flounce that wasn't and the dawning realisation of tory MPs that Cammie's Cast Iron refrendum pledge is somewhat less than believable it's difficult to measure the gullibility of tory eurosceptics on any kind of scale without it going off the charts. Luckily the May local elections and UKIP may help there.
Last time he was the top male candidate outside sitting MEPs (Incumbent, Incumbent, Woman, Man)...now 1 sitting MEP is retiring and Labour should aim at gain a third seat too....so 1 incumbent, 1 woman, 1 man or 1 incumbent, 1 man and 1 woman....top new woman in 2014 will likely be the same one (Therese Griffin) who missed out in 2004 and 2009....but this chap faces a potential strong challenger from Cllr Khan from Manchester to be the top man (and so being number 3...or 2...but I guess Griffin will get 2, she always stands)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/9681540/Birger-Stromsheim.html
Obituary of Birgir Stromsheim who died in 2012 at the age of 101, another member of an extraordinary group of Norwegian Resistance fighters.
Anyway, I'm off for the night.
Osborne: -33
Cameron: -16
Clegg: -45
Miliband: -30
Balls: -40
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_22nd_April.pdf
If you clear your browsing history you can have another 20 articles for nothing.
Revealed: tragic victims of Syria’s nerve gas war
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3749322.ece
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Tsl7-TJtPew&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Tsl7-TJtPew
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Have been all Iron Man 3'd out.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/syria-crisis-hundreds-of-europeans-join-fight-live
His party isn't likely to go into meltdown over the issue and UKIP are now the perfect outlet for anti-EU voting so it won't make a whole lot of difference to him except in those seats where he will take a bit of a hit from the Kippers. He could easily follow Cammie's formula on a referendum that will only take place after a treaty renegotiations since that treaty is looking pretty unlikely anyway. So it's a very easy way to fudge the issue almost indefinitely. On balance yes, why not? It's harmless enough and might appease a few UKIP/labour waverers voters for his party. Labour's Lisbon backdown didn't kill the labour vote after all and 2015 will still be primarily about the economy.
Will he?
Doubtful. Blairite cuckoos like Dan Hodges pushing for it are unlikely to convince little Ed of the wisdom of the move. Though there is some utility for labour to go into the election making it clear they will be campaiging on a pro-EU position like Cammie favours. I don't expect that would help the tories much in marginals as it would likely boost the UKIP vote.
[Edit: I see Andrea has answered the question who found LB. The answers make my question redundant.]
I realise you know very little about how it plays in scottish politics but after Cammie made it clear he wanted to put the continued membership of the EU up for grabs that inept scare story has went very much into the background with SLAB and the tories curiously reluctant to bring it up very much again.
lol
Pitiful. Truly awful. She does, though, lift the curtain to reveal that THERE IS NO LABOUR ECONOMIC POLICY. Which is going to make the next election fun. But not for Labour.
Also - Greens, what were you thinking???
Day fees at Habs Girls will be lower than Eton, but still a good education which money can buy.
Ed's soft lead is already on the slide and that's without him being exposed to the wider public. If he goes to the country on an 'I know best' manifesto he could be in trouble.
I've got Tony Stark on the brain, and I know he's not been a UK Party leader, yet.
As well as the No to AV was going before that campaign started for real in the final months.
Dude, I've helped on preliminary campaigning for Yes and the truth is the scottish public simply aren't paying it much attention as yet and the usual response right now is indifference.
Nor will they focus on it till the final months and weeks.