The Labour blame figure is not the interesting one, probably current Tory and Lib Dem voters.
It is the Coalition blame figure that is interesting, more than half the current Labour vote do do blame the coalition exclusively.
Eh? Are you saying that the fact that well over twice as many respondents blamed Labour exclusively than blamed the current government exclusively is good news for Labour?
No, he's saying its bad news for Labour. Even their own supporters don't blame the current gov't.
The Labour blame figure is not the interesting one, probably current Tory and Lib Dem voters.
It is the Coalition blame figure that is interesting, more than half the current Labour vote do do blame the coalition exclusively.
Eh? Are you saying that the fact that well over twice as many respondents blamed Labour exclusively than blamed the current government exclusively is good news for Labour?
No, he's saying its bad news for Labour. Even their own supporters don't blame the current gov't.
I tell you now the electorate are sick to death of Europe
Then UKIP are poised to do very well. The Curtice projection of a 6-8% voteshare for UKIP in 2015 seems reasonable enough but it might even be on the low side. Even 6% would be double their voteshare for 2010 so that in itself would be significant albeit gradual progress for them.
That Lincs poll showing a major UKIP surge seems worth a thread, as it's the first local election poll we've had, though I've not seen anything on methodology and the sample size of 250 means the MOE is large.
We're still not noticing any UKIP vote worth mentioning in our target seats, but it could well be hiding in the "No not Labour, goodnight" segment.
Labour is exploring a cap on the welfare bill to balance higher spending on new homes and childcare.
The Shadow Cabinet has agreed that the party needs to toughen its stance on benefits if it is to avoid being portrayed as “the welfare party”, as David Cameron called Labour this week. Ideas include switching money from housing benefit to housebuilding and from childcare tax credits to children’s centres.
Some Shadow ministers are arguing for a cap on all or part of the benefits bill. Another idea would be to write strict new rules on welfare spending into the fiscal mandate that Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, sets an incoming Labour government.
......The party is examining whether to adopt a regional cap, with a higher level in the South East and lower elsewhere.
Elsewhere it says, some in the shadow cabinet think the recent narrowing of the polls is down to welfare debate/positioning by the Tories in recent weeks.
I tell you now the electorate are sick to death of Europe
Then UKIP are poised to do very well. The Curtice projection of a 6-8% voteshare for UKIP in 2015 seems reasonable enough but it might even be on the low side. Even 6% would be double their voteshare for 2010 so that in itself would be significant albeit gradual progress for them.
Exactly, there is now a party that won't U-turn on it, and going to the polls on an 'you're too stupid, I know best' ticket will be disastrous for him.
I begin to detect, just as the media got tired of the intial Coalition togetherness that the media will no longer run with the Opposition opposing everything without giving any (plausible) explanation of what Labour would do in Govt. I think the focus of attention is going to change very soon and its going to be a very interesting few months in Sept and beyond.
That Lincs poll showing a major UKIP surge seems worth a thread, as it's the first local election poll we've had, though I've not seen anything on methodology and the sample size of 250 means the MOE is large.
We're still not noticing any UKIP vote worth mentioning in our target seats, but it could well be hiding in the "No not Labour, goodnight" segment.
We know that the lib dems think current VI polling underestimates their likely vote at the GE.
So do the tories come to that.
Call me cynical but I doubt they are all correct and every party will get a huge GE boost.
UKIP are still working from the base of a 3.1% voteshare since 2010. So though people may differ as to how much of a jump it will get there are very, very few who can seriously question that they are at least going to improve on that a fair bit.
We know that the lib dems think current VI polling underestimates their likely vote at the GE.
So do the tories come to that.
Call me cynical but I doubt they are all correct and every party will get a huge GE boost.
UKIP are still working from the base of a 3.1% voteshare since 2010. So though people may differ as to how much of a jump it will get there are very, very few who can seriously question that they are at least going to improve on that a fair bit.
The LDs have lost a third of their local gov't base since 2010. I think they've got a pretty clear idea of what's coming.
We know that the lib dems think current VI polling underestimates their likely vote at the GE.
So do the tories come to that.
Call me cynical but I doubt they are all correct and every party will get a huge GE boost.
UKIP are still working from the base of a 3.1% voteshare since 2010. So though people may differ as to how much of a jump it will get there are very, very few who can seriously question that they are at least going to improve on that a fair bit.
They will get 10% plus. The problem with libLabCon is the leaders are all the same people, they all went to the same Uni and studied the same thing. That may not be true but it's how the public see it, three privileged bôys who have never had a proper job.
They see a bit of themselves in Farage, an affable bloke with the British interest at heart. UKIP get nick many votes from the Lib Dems, who to me are the real fruitcake, but they will definitely nick loads of votes from Labour.
"And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51."
What a lot of nonsense, Sean - you can't cherry-pick a single poll that you happen to like and claim "that's what the polls say". It certainly isn't what the most recent Panelbase poll said, for example - that had Yes on 36% and No on 46%.
As Mick has pointed out, this is a very, very early stage in the campaign (arguably the campaign hasn't even started in any meaningful sense) and referendum campaigns are notorious for seeing huge swings of opinion over a very short period of time.
If the No campaign are as complacent as you appear to be, they've got problems.
We know that the lib dems think current VI polling underestimates their likely vote at the GE.
So do the tories come to that.
Call me cynical but I doubt they are all correct and every party will get a huge GE boost.
UKIP are still working from the base of a 3.1% voteshare since 2010. So though people may differ as to how much of a jump it will get there are very, very few who can seriously question that they are at least going to improve on that a fair bit.
They will get 10% plus. The problem with libLabCon is the leaders are all the same people, they all went to the same Uni and studied the same thing. That may not be true but it's how the public see it, three privileged bôys who have never had a proper job.
They see a bit of themselves in Farage, an affable bloke with the British interest at heart. UKIP get nick many votes from the Lib Dems, who to me are the real fruitcake, but they will definitely nick loads of votes from Labour.
They look set to find a new high next year in the EU parliament elections. They're probably going to be proved right on a new wave of east european immigration, and energy prices seem likely to rise between now and 2015.
It's certainly not a seriously outlandish prediction any more. I think the 8% could be closer to the mark but we're still along way out so the locals are well placed to give us yet more clues.
The problem with libLabCon is the leaders are all the same people, they all went to the same Uni and studied the same thing. That may not be true but it's how the public see it, three privileged bôys who have never had a proper job.
They see a bit of themselves in Farage, an affable bloke with the British interest at heart. UKIP get nick many votes from the Lib Dems, who to me are the real fruitcake, but they will definitely nick loads of votes from Labour.
I don't doubt that UKIP are going to grab votes from labour and the lib dems but it's just never going to be on the same scale as they are likely to harvest from disenchanted tories.
I also think you are correct about Farage being a likely vote winner personally among wavering labour and lib dems. The only question is how he stands up to the big three and the likes of Crosby turning their big guns on him. Again, I think better than many people realise but we will see. This is not the same Farage from 2010. Few yet fully appreciate that.
"And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51."
While I would like to be optimistic as a result of that, wasn't 'Yes to AV' ahead this far out from the referendum? I may have misremembered that, but it was definitely close.
Point is, I would love if there was such a large proportion in favour of retaining the Union, but factor in the more positive sounding and determined Yes campaign, and I think at the least that will narrow considerably, if not reverse when crunch time approaches.
That Lincs poll showing a major UKIP surge seems worth a thread, as it's the first local election poll we've had, though I've not seen anything on methodology and the sample size of 250 means the MOE is large.
We're still not noticing any UKIP vote worth mentioning in our target seats, but it could well be hiding in the "No not Labour, goodnight" segment.
What do you think turnout is going to be like?
I think it'll be down a bit but not collapsing. A lot of people seem quite interested, but Tory and LibDem activist enthusiasm are down (which will affect GOTV). In one Tory-held ward in my patch, the councillor has reportedly been on his own throughout the campaign, gamely leafleting the entire division himself but not doing any canvassing; a veteran LibDem councillor told us that he'd personally delivered over 6000 leaflets since he wasn't getting help.
"This is not the same Farage from 2010. Few yet appreciate that fully. "A fair point. I'm not sure when the turning point came exactly, or what constituted it, but for some reason the media portrayal and general perception of Farage definitely shifted at some point. Like Boris being seen as a genuinely significant figure - people joked about it for years, some still joke about it being true now, but it is a fact that he is, and Farage similarly has had a perception transformation.
If he plays it right and is lucky, whoever follows after him could take UKIP to the next level.
Although the sample size is very small and M of E therefore very high , the swings Con to LD , Con to Lab and LD to Lab are very close to my forecasts for next week's elections
The LDs have lost a third of their local gov't base since 2010. I think they've got a pretty clear idea of what's coming.
That remaining base can be under few illusions over what awaits them in scotland. Even if the likes of wee Willie Rennie still hasn't worked it out yet.
If the No campaign are as complacent as you appear to be, they've got problems.
They are so complacent that they sent George "Master Strategist" Osborne up for a quick chat with the Scots RE: currency.
Aha, you have fallen for the trick! It was actually a tactical masterstroke. You see, now anyone who follows after GO will look like a brilliant choice and be far better received out of sheer relief he is not coming back. Right?
Observation: just by being ON Question Time Nigel Farage single-handedly pulls the country's political debate to the right. He makes the Tories appear centrist - the Tories are literally "in between" Farage's position and Labour's.
Theoretically, UKIP might therefore benefit the Tories, in the long-term - by shifting the UK's centre of political gravity.
What were the other parties thinking? putting up such lowgrade speakers for QT a week before the biggest elections of the year.
Luciana Berger looks to be another empty suit, I am not surprised that she makes such a perfect couple with Chuka.
Javid struggled nearly as much, Simon Hughes seemed bored and dreaming of the old folks home. And the Green Party Leader - for once I think that Sean T is understated in his description of her.
It all conspired to make Farage seem the voice of the sensible party. I am no Kipper and will be voting Lib Dem next week, but the vacuity of the other parties is beyond belief.
"And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51."
While I would like to be optimistic as a result of that, wasn't 'Yes to AV' ahead this far out from the referendum? I may have misremembered that, but it was definitely close.
Point is, I would love if there was such a large proportion in favour of retaining the Union, but factor in the more positive sounding and determined Yes campaign, and I think at the least that will narrow considerably, if not reverse when crunch time approaches.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
I thought Farage had a very good QT. He had more than half the audience clapping at times. And brave of him to raise Romanian crime rates in London. The other panelists looked gobsmacked when that got a big clap. Clearly many people will lend him their vote.
"And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51."
While I would like to be optimistic as a result of that, wasn't 'Yes to AV' ahead this far out from the referendum? I may have misremembered that, but it was definitely close.
Point is, I would love if there was such a large proportion in favour of retaining the Union, but factor in the more positive sounding and determined Yes campaign, and I think at the least that will narrow considerably, if not reverse when crunch time approaches.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
"And I can see that the latest polls have Yes on 30 and No on 51."
While I would like to be optimistic as a result of that, wasn't 'Yes to AV' ahead this far out from the referendum? I may have misremembered that, but it was definitely close.
Point is, I would love if there was such a large proportion in favour of retaining the Union, but factor in the more positive sounding and determined Yes campaign, and I think at the least that will narrow considerably, if not reverse when crunch time approaches.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
"And we have weight of numbers too. Battle of attrition, here we come. Enjoy your Pyrric victory non-union Scots!"
I wouldn't be too sure. According to the No campaign's latest highly plausible propaganda, Alex Salmond is a crazed Kim Jong-un type figure who pretends to be a lifelong unilateralist, but who secretly wants to get his hands on nuclear weapons and blow up the world.
"And we have weight of numbers too. Battle of attrition, here we come. Enjoy your Pyrric victory non-union Scots!"
I wouldn't be too sure. According to the No campaign's latest highly plausible propaganda, Alex Salmond is a crazed Kim Jong-un type figure who pretends to be a lifelong unilateralist, but who secretly wants to get his hands on nuclear weapons and blow up the world.
I wonder what Alex Salmond's record golf game is? Can he beat the 11-holes-in-one achieved by the Kim Jong-Il
Fits with Sean Fear's report of a third of Tory voters in Potters Bar now saying they'll vote UKIP.
On this poll it's not doing any harm to Labour's vote. Certainly in Broxtowe we're finding that "2011 Labour and now UKIP" is barely troubling the scorers - I think I've met three people in that category in six days of intensive canvassing, including WWC areas (you can trace more UKIP supporters as having cast Labour votes in the 1990s, but they've been Tory or LibDem or BNP or abstaining in the interim). To balance that so it doesn't sound like just spin, I'll add that the LibDem personal vote is significant in some areas - they will be slaughtered in seats they don't hold, less clear in seats they do hold.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
It looks pretty damn one sided if you go all the way back to May 2010 though doesn't it?
I'm agreeing that the most intense time where big shifts in the polls take place is a few months to weeks out. All that shows is that it was never a certain outcome regardless of the early polling.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
It looks pretty damn one sided if you go all the way back to May 2010 though doesn't it?
I'm agreeing that the most intense time where big shifts in the polls take place is a few months to weeks out. All that shows is that it was never a certain outcome regardless of the early polling.
I was showing that the AV side was never as far ahead as the 'No' camp is currently. You are right on the second point, both campaigns stayed in the same band through the year prior to the referendum, apart from the final month when the 'No' share went up significantly, with 'Yes' being unchanged (i.e. unknowns splitting heavily towards 'No').
Mick, the other point of course is that there was a period a few years ago when Yes had a sustained lead in independence polls. That fact doesn't support the idea that this is a non-fluid electorate that has a fixed, unchanging view on independence.
Mick, the other point of course is that there was a period a few years ago when Yes had a sustained lead in independence polls. That fact doesn't support the idea that this is a non-fluid electorate that has a fixed, unchanging view on independence.
This would be between the 7th April 2005 and the 7th September 2006 where the three polls in a row had leads for 'Yes' of 7%, 7%, and 2%.
Since I'm in a plotting mood (procrastination!), here is a plot showing the 'Yes' lead in all the polls I have listed (with a moving average). Looking like an oscillating pattern with a slight downward trend (but this means nothing for future predictions, of course). The reason for James et al.'s optimism is the noted improvement in the 'Yes' position over the past few months
Easy to understand Ed's recent comments over candidate selection.
'As a Labour candidate in a working class area of Liverpool, glamorous 28-year-old Londoner Luciana Berger has gone to great lengths to prove her down-to-earth credentials.
The privately-educated friend of the Blairs’ son Euan has spent months canvassing on jobs, schools and hospitals.
And such is her devotion, the former management consultant has even ditched a car with a £5,000 personalised numberplate spelling out her name.'
Mick, the other point of course is that there was a period a few years ago when Yes had a sustained lead in independence polls. That fact doesn't support the idea that this is a non-fluid electorate that has a fixed, unchanging view on independence.
Yes, you're right of course. The relentless focus on the polls since then simply reinforces the idea among the No campaign that they just need to carry on as usual and things will be fine. I remember that same attitude from SLAB pre-2011. Much as we'd prefer to have great polling all the time we also know that it's not over till the final vote get's counted.
"This is not the same Farage from 2010. Few yet appreciate that fully. "A fair point. I'm not sure when the turning point came exactly, or what constituted it, but for some reason the media portrayal and general perception of Farage definitely shifted at some point. Like Boris being seen as a genuinely significant figure - people joked about it for years, some still joke about it being true now, but it is a fact that he is, and Farage similarly has had a perception transformation.
If he plays it right and is lucky, whoever follows after him could take UKIP to the next level.
Funny you should say that. . I shall say no more but you are not the first to have realised this.
The White House is doing plenty of avoid sticking to its red line statements (its complicated apparently) but is running out of road. The best indication is to watch Jordan or more precisely a place called Al Mafraq. If the US means some kind of overt intervention it will feature.
Should really get back to work, way too much procrastination. Thought I'd share one last graph with you, which shows the data since 2012, with a 1month moving average window (better than excel's built in moving average thing I plotted earlier). I'll try and keep it updated with all the latest info
Has been a significant improvement since the nadir of October 2012 (although most likely that one poll was an outlier!)
According to Politico, delicate negotiations are under way to exempt federal lawmakers and aides from Obamacare.
There are concerns that due to the increased costs associated with Obamacare, aides in particular may jump to the private sector, resulting in a 'brain drain' from Capitol Hill.
My favorite quote - obviously unattributed - “Everyone has to hold hands on this and jump, or nothing is going to get done.”
The consensus view now - even among the more conservative democrats - is that this whole thing is a hugely expensive train wreck regarding the insurance exchanges.
HYUFD - at risk of getting you hyper-excited, did you hear the news that ROSANNE BARR (or whateve she's calling herself today) has yet again announced her presidential "availablity"???
Tim B, according to today's NYT, congressional wingnuts are attacking "Cantorcare" because their MAJORITY LEADER is apparently a secret Marxist-Leninist!
Also Tim B, do you plan to bet the farm (or maybe just the rabbit hutch) on MARK SANFORD???
Must say, was brilliant move on his part to run the aid telling voter that he'd had a very rough week!!! Poor baby.
BTW, finally saw clip of the night he won the runoff primary, with his Argentinian flame. Noted she's a younger, slightly darker, definitely bustier version of . . . his ex!
Disastrous new leader of the Green Party. Looks like a lesbian newt on crystal meth.
lol
Is she the first foreign leader of a 'major' political party? I suppose she is still a subject of HM either way.
Bonar Law was born in (then New Brunswick, now) Canada. That's the same sort of level of "foreign" as Australian, I reckon.
Slightly related to this topic, I'm a bit sad to see the private members UK Borders Bill 2013 has not yet had, and probably wont get, a second reading. I do think nationals of HMs realms should have a dedicated lanes at the UK border. An added bonus is that you wouldn't have to enter through the 'EU nationals' line!
Where he talks about all the negatives from the report. Whilst there are uncertainties with shale gas, these need to be weighed against the potentials. All in all not a very good article, IMHO.
Comments
In 1992 the Natural Law Party contested 310 seats, winning 0.19% of the vote.
All their candidates lost their deposits:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Law_Party#United_Kingdom
Ah, that makes more sense.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313958/Justine-Miliband-childrens-TV-star-long-husband-Ed-turned-boost-poll-ratings.html
The public wanted a Lisbon referendum but that didn't stop labour the lib dems and the tories u-turning on that.
Then UKIP are poised to do very well. The Curtice projection of a 6-8% voteshare for UKIP in 2015 seems reasonable enough but it might even be on the low side. Even 6% would be double their voteshare for 2010 so that in itself would be significant albeit gradual progress for them.
We're still not noticing any UKIP vote worth mentioning in our target seats, but it could well be hiding in the "No not Labour, goodnight" segment.
Labour is exploring a cap on the welfare bill to balance higher spending on new homes and childcare.
The Shadow Cabinet has agreed that the party needs to toughen its stance on benefits if it is to avoid being portrayed as “the welfare party”, as David Cameron called Labour this week. Ideas include switching money from housing benefit to housebuilding and from childcare tax credits to children’s centres.
Some Shadow ministers are arguing for a cap on all or part of the benefits bill. Another idea would be to write strict new rules on welfare spending into the fiscal mandate that Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, sets an incoming Labour government.
......The party is examining whether to adopt a regional cap, with a higher level in the South East and lower elsewhere.
Elsewhere it says, some in the shadow cabinet think the recent narrowing of the polls is down to welfare debate/positioning by the Tories in recent weeks.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/098ec7be-ace7-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/098ec7be-ace7-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http://conservativehome.blogs.com/#axzz2RW422l1k
I believe Ukip are being wildly underestimated.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/03c1bc62-acf4-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03c1bc62-acf4-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http://conservativehome.blogs.com/#axzz2RW422l1k
We know that the lib dems think current VI polling underestimates their likely vote at the GE.
So do the tories come to that.
Call me cynical but I doubt they are all correct and every party will get a huge GE boost.
UKIP are still working from the base of a 3.1% voteshare since 2010. So though people may differ as to how much of a jump it will get there are very, very few who can seriously question that they are at least going to improve on that a fair bit.
Lab 341
LD 239
Con 168
UKIP 132
Green 48
Lab hold
'Haberdashers' Aske's School for Girls. Where else?'
Surely Labour could have found someone more serious to put on QT,her mockney is good though.
They see a bit of themselves in Farage, an affable bloke with the British interest at heart. UKIP get nick many votes from the Lib Dems, who to me are the real fruitcake, but they will definitely nick loads of votes from Labour.
It's not going to magically resolve itself you know. Sooner or later it's going to erupt, referendum or no referendum.
What a lot of nonsense, Sean - you can't cherry-pick a single poll that you happen to like and claim "that's what the polls say". It certainly isn't what the most recent Panelbase poll said, for example - that had Yes on 36% and No on 46%.
As Mick has pointed out, this is a very, very early stage in the campaign (arguably the campaign hasn't even started in any meaningful sense) and referendum campaigns are notorious for seeing huge swings of opinion over a very short period of time.
If the No campaign are as complacent as you appear to be, they've got problems.
All that looks positive for UKIP's 2015 chances.
Con 32% (-15%)
UKIP 21% (+18%)
Lab 19% (+8%)
Ind 17% (+1%)
LD 10% (-9%)
TUSC 1%
http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/POLL-UKIP-surge-expected-Conservatives-rule/story-18799665-detail/story.html#axzz2RWAS9ilg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincolnshire_County_Council_election,_2009
16.5% swing from Con to UKIP if it's right.
Con 1081
Lab 627
LD 246
NF 156
Con hold
I also think you are correct about Farage being a likely vote winner personally among wavering labour and lib dems. The only question is how he stands up to the big three and the likes of Crosby turning their big guns on him. Again, I think better than many people realise but we will see. This is not the same Farage from 2010. Few yet fully appreciate that.
While I would like to be optimistic as a result of that, wasn't 'Yes to AV' ahead this far out from the referendum? I may have misremembered that, but it was definitely close.
Point is, I would love if there was such a large proportion in favour of retaining the Union, but factor in the more positive sounding and determined Yes campaign, and I think at the least that will narrow considerably, if not reverse when crunch time approaches.
If he plays it right and is lucky, whoever follows after him could take UKIP to the next level.
Even if the likes of wee Willie Rennie still hasn't worked it out yet.
Lab -9.9
LD -1
Con -8.5
UKIP +14.2 from nowhere
Green +5.2 from nowhere
Rochdale vs 2012
Con - 16.35
Lab +4.58
LD +4.37
NF +7.39 from nowhere
Rochdale vs 2011
Con -6
Lab +3
LD -4.4
Rochdale vs 2010
Con +15
Lab +14
LD -30
NF +1.4 vs BNP score
Luciana Berger looks to be another empty suit, I am not surprised that she makes such a perfect couple with Chuka.
Javid struggled nearly as much, Simon Hughes seemed bored and dreaming of the old folks home. And the Green Party Leader - for once I think that Sean T is understated in his description of her.
It all conspired to make Farage seem the voice of the sensible party. I am no Kipper and will be voting Lib Dem next week, but the vacuity of the other parties is beyond belief.
Two words.
Ground campaign.
The polling for the AV referendum was much more mixed than being let on. I've attached the AV (blue) and FPTP (red) shares on all polls prior to the referendum. For the Independence polls, 'No' has been ahead in all but one poll for the last 3 years.
http://i.imgur.com/AsMB9mM.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013#Mayoral_elections
I shall see you on the battlefield (theoretically).*
*Actually, scratch that - the SNP have the youth vote I think, so more stamina in a physical fight as well. Damn it.
Good Night
Night all.
I wouldn't be too sure. According to the No campaign's latest highly plausible propaganda, Alex Salmond is a crazed Kim Jong-un type figure who pretends to be a lifelong unilateralist, but who secretly wants to get his hands on nuclear weapons and blow up the world.
http://www.history.com/shows/vikings
On this poll it's not doing any harm to Labour's vote. Certainly in Broxtowe we're finding that "2011 Labour and now UKIP" is barely troubling the scorers - I think I've met three people in that category in six days of intensive canvassing, including WWC areas (you can trace more UKIP supporters as having cast Labour votes in the 1990s, but they've been Tory or LibDem or BNP or abstaining in the interim). To balance that so it doesn't sound like just spin, I'll add that the LibDem personal vote is significant in some areas - they will be slaughtered in seats they don't hold, less clear in seats they do hold.
I'm agreeing that the most intense time where big shifts in the polls take place is a few months to weeks out. All that shows is that it was never a certain outcome regardless of the early polling.
Nice graph BTW.
Since I'm in a plotting mood (procrastination!), here is a plot showing the 'Yes' lead in all the polls I have listed (with a moving average). Looking like an oscillating pattern with a slight downward trend (but this means nothing for future predictions, of course). The reason for James et al.'s optimism is the noted improvement in the 'Yes' position over the past few months
http://i.imgur.com/gAv9iZ6.png
Easy to understand Ed's recent comments over candidate selection.
'As a Labour candidate in a working class area of Liverpool, glamorous 28-year-old Londoner Luciana Berger has gone to great lengths to prove her down-to-earth credentials.
The privately-educated friend of the Blairs’ son Euan has spent months canvassing on jobs, schools and hospitals.
And such is her devotion, the former management consultant has even ditched a car with a £5,000 personalised numberplate spelling out her name.'
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/obama-george-bush-immigration-passes/story?id=19042094
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottinghamshire_County_Council_election,_2009#Broxtowe_Borough
I shall say no more but you are not the first to have realised this.
Should really get back to work, way too much procrastination. Thought I'd share one last graph with you, which shows the data since 2012, with a 1month moving average window (better than excel's built in moving average thing I plotted earlier). I'll try and keep it updated with all the latest info
Has been a significant improvement since the nadir of October 2012 (although most likely that one poll was an outlier!)
Red-No
Blue-Yes
Green-DK
Purple-Yes Lead
http://i.imgur.com/VABTaYQ.png
According to Politico, delicate negotiations are under way to exempt federal lawmakers and aides from Obamacare.
There are concerns that due to the increased costs associated with Obamacare, aides in particular may jump to the private sector, resulting in a 'brain drain' from Capitol Hill.
My favorite quote - obviously unattributed - “Everyone has to hold hands on this and jump, or nothing is going to get done.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/obamacare-exemption-lawmakers-aides-90610.html#ixzz2RWadtqEd
The consensus view now - even among the more conservative democrats - is that this whole thing is a hugely expensive train wreck regarding the insurance exchanges.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/paul-rising-in-new-hampshire.html
Great betting oportunity!!!
Must say, was brilliant move on his part to run the aid telling voter that he'd had a very rough week!!! Poor baby.
BTW, finally saw clip of the night he won the runoff primary, with his Argentinian flame. Noted she's a younger, slightly darker, definitely bustier version of . . . his ex!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22300050
Where he talks about all the negatives from the report. Whilst there are uncertainties with shale gas, these need to be weighed against the potentials. All in all not a very good article, IMHO.
Compare and contrast with the actual report, which can be found at: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenergy/785/78502.htm
It was only released today, so I haven't had time to do much more than quickly scan it. But the tone seems rather different to Harriban's blog.