This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
After that we won't be begging, you don't know Britain very well if you think we will turn to begging, but we will remain open to a deal the moment they want to drop their delusionally undemocratic backstop demands. The backstop was a disgrace that they tried to foist on us and if they get nothing instead that is their choice.
Following an election there are two plausible outcomes. Boris wins a majority to back No Deal, we won't beg after that. Or Boris loses and Corbyn gets a rainbow majority to have a 2nd referendum. There is no realistic alternative.
What you fail to understand about the backstop, although god knows it has been pointed out countless times, is that it was a joint agreement between the EU and the UK reflecting the UK's desire not to put the future of Northern Ireland in jeopardy. It was as much us as them.
That Boris et al, after of course backing it, now seems so dead set against it is evidence that they don't know or don't care about the situation in Northern Ireland. Or else believe they can stonewall the WTO should circumstances arise whereby we are told by them to erect border controls.
Then again perhaps he is singing from Patrick Minford's hymnsheet and actually wants to unilaterally reduce tariffs to zero so as to reinvigorate British agriculture and industry. But perhaps not.
There really has to be a GE in next month or two. This has become utterly ridiculous. A GE is our constitution's safety value and we need to press it.
There doesn't need to be a GE or any legislation to have No Deal. And if there is a vote to trigger a GE to try and cancel No Deal then Grieve and co can give up their careers and seats in Parliament to achieve it.
I expect there won't be a formal pact between Tories and BXP but I think a simple tactical decision by Farage would simplify it. If there is a clean Brexit vs No Confidence vote then Farage and the BXP should say they will stand against any MP who rejects a clean Brexit. No formal pact, but any clean Brexiteers in Parliament there's no reason for them to stand against.
I would believe that any conservatives who did not vote with the government would be deselected. The pro-EU Tory members would be playing into the hands of the PM.
If the UK was a country we would not be constantly having these definition debates.
The UK is a state, made up of three countries and part of a fourth country. It is not itself a country.
State=legal Country=geographical Nation=people
The UK is a country made up of four nation states.
Trust you to get yourself in a tizzy about it and to get it wrong.
The UK is a state, the constituent parts of it are not. The only part of the UK which is unambiguously a separate standalone nation is Scotland. The other three parts have a more confusing status. Eg Northern Ireland was created by the partition of of Ireland, and it is almost impossible to imagine Northern Ireland as a separate independent country rather than a part of either the UK or Ireland. Wales and England share a legal and education system (and a cricket team) and have been administered as a single country for centuries.
Wales does not share an education system with England any more.
Education is fully devolved. E.g., the study of the Welsh language is compulsory for all pupils in State Schools until the age of 16 in Wales.
Ok, Momentum kids, either you wake up and give Tom Watson the nod to depose Corbyn next month or you face a significant part of your early adult life living in a No Deal economy.
Tom Watson? The lying, slandering Nonce Finder General? That Tom Watson?
I don't mean him as leader, I mean him as the instigator of a leadership contest.
I believe 'consigliere' is the term you are looking for.
If the UK was a country we would not be constantly having these definition debates.
The UK is a state, made up of three countries and part of a fourth country. It is not itself a country.
State=legal Country=geographical Nation=people
The UK is a country made up of four nation states.
Trust you to get yourself in a tizzy about it and to get it wrong.
The UK is a state, the constituent parts of it are not. The only part of the UK which is unambiguously a separate standalone nation is Scotland. The other three parts have a more confusing status. Eg Northern Ireland was created by the partition of of Ireland, and it is almost impossible to imagine Northern Ireland as a separate independent country rather than a part of either the UK or Ireland. Wales and England share a legal and education system (and a cricket team) and have been administered as a single country for centuries.
Ah yes, the England is not a nation verbalese.
YAWN
If you like this song you're BRITISH - end of story-
Dirge. Second only to Rule Brittania in the "songs that would make me vote SNP" stakes.
Now Jerusalem, that's a tune.
But it's true anyway, England is less of a proper country than Scotland is. That's just a fact. As someone with links to both countries I think I can be fairly objective about it.
"When I started this job in 2017 I was a different man: a confident and passionate man that wanted to help others. Sadly, I was unable to do that because very quickly I was bullied and mistreated in a harsh and unforgiving environment and that led me to be weak."
Errhhh...remind me about how he treated people in 2017....not just online, but in person...
Ok, Momentum kids, either you wake up and give Tom Watson the nod to depose Corbyn next month or you face a significant part of your early adult life living in a No Deal economy.
Tom Watson? The lying, slandering Nonce Finder General? That Tom Watson?
I don't mean him as leader, I mean him as the instigator of a leadership contest.
In the Ultimate Bad Timings Awards, an entry from Watson that involves making *any* kind of public comment right now would be a strong contender.
If the UK was a country we would not be constantly having these definition debates.
The UK is a state, made up of three countries and part of a fourth country. It is not itself a country.
State=legal Country=geographical Nation=people
The UK is a country made up of four nation states.
Trust you to get yourself in a tizzy about it and to get it wrong.
The UK is a state, the constituent parts of it are not. The only part of the UK which is unambiguously a separate standalone nation is Scotland. The other three parts have a more confusing status. Eg Northern Ireland was created by the partition of of Ireland, and it is almost impossible to imagine Northern Ireland as a separate independent country rather than a part of either the UK or Ireland. Wales and England share a legal and education system (and a cricket team) and have been administered as a single country for centuries.
Wales does not share an education system with England any more.
Education is fully devolved. E.g., the study of the Welsh language is compulsory for all pupils in State Schools until the age of 16 in Wales.
Our EU friends have access to the internet. They read the newspapers. They also have 27 ambassadors for whom a key function is reporting back on what is going on in the UK. So they know perfectly well that Boris effectively hasn't got a majority in parliament, and therefore can't be relied upon to deliver anything even if they were to agree changes with him. They further know that there's no time to agree anything by 31st October, and that there's a good chance that the cards will all be thrown in the air again in the UK before then, either by a GE or by parliament taking back control.
So, with the best will in the world, why on earth would they spend effort and political capital on negotiations? The deal is there. The UK can take it or leave it - if it leaves it, and exits without a deal, they know perfectly well that before long the next PM will be back begging for help. That's not what they want, and if Boris thinks he can get a fig-leaf covered version of the WA through parliament I'm sure they'll be happy to pretend that the fig-leaf is a big concession, as long as it is purely cosmetic. But they won't be expecting that to happen.
Alternatively, the UK might ask for an extension, which I expect they would grant after a bit of huffing and puffing, in the hope that something turned up to make the UK's position more sane.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
After that we won't be begging, you don't know Britain very well if you think we will turn to begging, but we will remain open to a deal the moment they want to drop their delusionally undemocratic backstop demands. The backstop was a disgrace that they tried to foist on us and if they get nothing instead that is their choice.
Following an election there are two plausible outcomes. Boris wins a majority to back No Deal, we won't beg after that. Or Boris loses and Corbyn gets a rainbow majority to have a 2nd referendum. There is no realistic alternative.
One thing that Boris coming into power has changed is IMO an increased chance of a second ref, especially because Corbyn has stated today that Labour is the party of remain.
The Torys would have a straight position of leave and Labour remain which means no serious blue of blue. Any Tory would really have to think very hard to support a Corbyn campaign so they would come down on supporting remain form afar or go on holiday.
"When I started this job in 2017 I was a different man: a confident and passionate man that wanted to help others. Sadly, I was unable to do that because very quickly I was bullied and mistreated in a harsh and unforgiving environment and that led me to be weak."
Errhhh...remind me about how he treated people in 2017....not just online, but in person...
The bloke obviously has serious issues. I can't remember what he did or didn't do but I think it's time to cut him some slack.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
There really has to be a GE in next month or two. This has become utterly ridiculous. A GE is our constitution's safety value and we need to press it.
There doesn't need to be a GE or any legislation to have No Deal. And if there is a vote to trigger a GE to try and cancel No Deal then Grieve and co can give up their careers and seats in Parliament to achieve it.
I expect there won't be a formal pact between Tories and BXP but I think a simple tactical decision by Farage would simplify it. If there is a clean Brexit vs No Confidence vote then Farage and the BXP should say they will stand against any MP who rejects a clean Brexit. No formal pact, but any clean Brexiteers in Parliament there's no reason for them to stand against.
I would believe that any conservatives who did not vote with the government would be deselected. The pro-EU Tory members would be playing into the hands of the PM.
If, of course, he is PM by that time. That's the point it is bringing the house down around everyone's ears, not just themselves.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
Hang on. We held all the cards, right?
The first thing Dominic Raab did when he got to Brussels was ask if he could hold the cards.
As someone cleverer than me put it ages ago- EU lays down a royal flush, UK looks at own cards: Mr Bun the Baker, Pikachu, a Shadowmage, a fireball spell, and the Fool
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
I mean I know we go round in circles here but I just didn't have the strength to ask whether we really are still at the BMW will save us stage.
One island is called Britain (the great being a Stuart invention to sell the idea of the Union) and the other island is called Ireland. To call the two islands the British Isles is an anachronism from a time when Britain asserted ownership of Ireland.
We do still need to find a replacement term that has fewer syllables than the Atlantic Archipelago. I quite like Iona (Islands Of the North Atlantic), though perhaps you would have to say Greater Iona to distinguish from the Scottish island of the same name.
None of the islands are called "Britain". One of them is called "Great Britain" because it is the largest of the British Isles. Great Britain also happens to be a political term meaning England, Scotland and Wales - but the Isle of Wight, Anglesey, Skye etc aren't in fact part of the island of Great Britain.
And, as has been mentioned, the term long predates union. You do need a term for the archipelago. I'm not personally bothered what it is (although I understand those who are for historical reasons). But, in the absence of another widely used term, it is in fact widely called the British Isles.
One of the Islands is called Great Britain in contrast with Little Britain - Brittany. Surely we all we taught that at school !
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
The no-dealers flip between claiming that crashing out with no deal wouldn't be a big dislocation, and that it would be such a big dislocation that the German economy would be hit badly enough to make the Germans want to shaft the Irish. It should hardly need saying that these can't both be true, and in fact it's much more likely that neither is true.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
Ineos have to put all the eggs in the Bernal basket with 2 stage to go. Thomas can't break the rest of them.
Another quite remarkable stage. Alaphillippe is making quite a show, but no descent to the finish any more. Top 10 all within 6 minutes now. Even Quintana can't fully be ruled out, as he will love the last 2 stages.
I took my son and his best friend to a play centre near Peterborough today, and on the way back this afternoon the car thermometer measured 40 degrees C. A rain shower on the A1(M) decreased it to 31.5, but by the time we got home it was back to 38.5
I know car thermometers are not necessarily that accurate, but it is too hot to d much.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It’s really is Groundhog Day. I could be reading posts from 3 years ago. May’s approval rating at the start of her premiership was 44, Boris is on -18 IIRC. Yet people like @Philip_Thompson seem to think that the same trick will produce a better result this time.
Ineos have to put all the eggs in the Bernal basket with 2 stage to go. Thomas can't break the rest of them.
Another quite remarkable stage. Alaphillippe is making quite a show, but no descent to the finish any more. Top 10 all within 6 minutes now. Even Quintana can't fully be ruled out, as he will love the last 2 stages.
Bernal looks so strong, he just needs to be let off the leash earlier. Thomas can't live with him on the big mountains.
It is not just the North Sea and the Channel which divides us from Europe. To us, the EEC/EU was always a trading arrangement. After ignoring it in 1957, we begged to join it later. Because we wanted to be in the market. Thatcher was behind improving it later to a Single Market and Customs union. Logically, a single market also requires free movement of labour otherwise distortions would emerge. But the UK in its heart never accepted this. To them it was always a market. To the Europeans, it was always more than a market. The founders of ECSC, the predecessor of the EEC, with recent horrific memories of the war[s] never wanted their people to go through that again. They believed, rightly, that the best insurance of avoiding a major conflict in Europe was closer and closer cooperation; economic, political, cultural etc. They succeeded. One thing we noticed in the last 10 years with all the problems post 2008 debt crisis, no country [ except UK ] wanted to leave the EU or the Euro. Not even Greece. Italy also will not in the end whatever Salvini says. This difference between the UK and the EU will not be resolved unless the UK also accepts the ever closer union. The younger generation already do. The older generation do not.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
The no-dealers flip between claiming that crashing out with no deal wouldn't be a big dislocation, and that it is would be a big dislocation that the German economy would be hit badly enough to make the Germans want to shaft the Irish. It should hardly need saying that these can't both be true, and in fact it's much more likely that neither is true.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
Has anyone seen her yet? How much longer can she keep up her disappearing act?
She said it was good news that Sajid Javid became Chancellor.
yes but not been out in public since she got back , couple of 2 minute party broadcasts on the tame BBC, no questions asked
Ineos have to put all the eggs in the Bernal basket with 2 stage to go. Thomas can't break the rest of them.
Another quite remarkable stage. Alaphillippe is making quite a show, but no descent to the finish any more. Top 10 all within 6 minutes now. Even Quintana can't fully be ruled out, as he will love the last 2 stages.
Bernal looks so strong, he just needs to be let off the leash earlier. Thomas can't live with him on the big mountains.
Think they will tomorrow. Alaphillippe has been distanced the last 2 mountain stages. Was always gonna be tough today with the descent to make up much time. Wouldn't be surprised to see a one -two. And if it works let them race. But there are others to consider too. Best Tour in years. Down to Alaphillippe, and Movistar disrupting everything.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
How much more leeway than the Barnett Formula do you want. The moon on every stick or something
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
It is the dog which didn't bark. BMW and Mercedes or even Prosecco did not break down the doors in Brussels as we were expected to believe. Let's face it, we are not that important and those who will buy BMW will still buy a BMW even with 10% tariff added to it. I am not so sure about Qashqai.
I always said that the best negotiating tactic is to speak softly, but carry a big stick. I.e., be incredibly measured, and polite, and constructive in public. But to have done as much as possible to prepare for failure of talks. Your words carry far more weight when you hae a credible plan b.
Instead, we had Mrs May carrying no stick at all, while being first rude, then craven.
I have no doubt that Boris Johnson was correct when, in late 2018, he called for an extension to restart the negotiating process, this time while putting in proper preparations for No Deal.
Premier Johnson has at least begun preparation for No Deal*. This is good. It is, admittedly, late. And one just has to look at the way we folded with the US over slots at Heathrow to get an air deal to replace Open Skies, and now are struggling with the Canadians over replicating CETA, to understand that we're negotiating with third parties from a position of weakness. Other issue, like taxation, seem to have been completely forgotten. But at least the UK government seems to be moving in the right direction.
It is still too early to know how Premier Johnson will approach the EU27. I hope it will be constructively.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
It is the dog which didn't bark. BMW and Mercedes or even Prosecco did not break down the doors in Brussels as we were expected to believe. Let's face it, we are not that important and those who will buy BMW will still buy a BMW even with 10% tariff added to it. I am not so sure about Qashqai.
So tariffs are not the end of the world. Good to know.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
England is about 84% of the population of the UK. Germany is about 16% of the EU population. The two situations are not remotely comparable.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It’s really is Groundhog Day. I could be reading posts from 3 years ago. May’s approval rating at the start of her premiership was 44, Boris is on -18 IIRC. Yet people like @Philip_Thompson seem to think that the same trick will produce a better result this time.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
England is about 84% of the population of the UK. Germany is about 16% of the EU population. The two situations are not remotely comparable.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
England is about 84% of the population of the UK. Germany is about 16% of the EU population. The two situations are not remotely comparable.
I agree, but it wasn't my comparison.
No; you were just happy to utilise it to post yet more separatist drivel.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
It is the dog which didn't bark. BMW and Mercedes or even Prosecco did not break down the doors in Brussels as we were expected to believe. Let's face it, we are not that important and those who will buy BMW will still buy a BMW even with 10% tariff added to it. I am not so sure about Qashqai.
So tariffs are not the end of the world. Good to know.
If you sell quality products, they can live with it. That is why Germany exports EUR 80bn to China and we export GBP 25bn. The Chinese importer pays the same duties from both countries.
I've attended many a meeting - should there not be some kind of mic set up in the Cabinet room? People at one end are really going to struggle to hear what is going on at the other end. https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/1154311240006742016
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It's possible, but the level of confidence is strange given past events.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
worse he has painted himself in to a corner on the issue so his choices are now lose face if sold out by the EU or lose his electorate if no deal is painful
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It’s really is Groundhog Day. I could be reading posts from 3 years ago. May’s approval rating at the start of her premiership was 44, Boris is on -18 IIRC. Yet people like @Philip_Thompson seem to think that the same trick will produce a better result this time.
Excuse me, I opposed May from the outset.
I know but it’s not the point. The point is that you’re a Tory who thinks that an early election will result in an improved position for your party as many of you did (even if you didn’t personally) three years ago. Yet you (collectively) have learned nothing. The evidence was if anything more persuasive of an early election for May but it backfired spectacularly. In terms of personal approval your current buffoon is in a far worse position.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It's possible, but the level of confidence is strange given past events.
"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority"
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
It is the dog which didn't bark. BMW and Mercedes or even Prosecco did not break down the doors in Brussels as we were expected to believe. Let's face it, we are not that important and those who will buy BMW will still buy a BMW even with 10% tariff added to it. I am not so sure about Qashqai.
So tariffs are not the end of the world. Good to know.
Good to know you are setting your sights so high as “not the end of the world”.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
Ah, the faith PB Brexiteers have in the German car manufacturers riding in on their unicorns like Blücher's Prussians at Waterloo to save their fantasy at the last minute is nothing short of touching.
I always said that the best negotiating tactic is to speak softly, but carry a big stick. I.e., be incredibly measured, and polite, and constructive in public. But to have done as much as possible to prepare for failure of talks. Your words carry far more weight when you hae a credible plan b.
Instead, we had Mrs May carrying no stick at all, while being first rude, then craven.
I have no doubt that Boris Johnson was correct when, in late 2018, he called for an extension to restart the negotiating process, this time while putting in proper preparations for No Deal.
Premier Johnson has at least begun preparation for No Deal*. This is good. It is, admittedly, late. And one just has to look at the way we folded with the US over slots at Heathrow to get an air deal to replace Open Skies, and now are struggling with the Canadians over replicating CETA, to understand that we're negotiating with third parties from a position of weakness. Other issue, like taxation, seem to have been completely forgotten. But at least the UK government seems to be moving in the right direction.
It is still too early to know how Premier Johnson will approach the EU27. I hope it will be constructively.
I've attended many a meeting - should there not be some kind of mic set up in the Cabinet room? People at one end are really going to struggle to hear what is going on at the other end. https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/1154311240006742016
30 people isn't a meeting - it's a classroom or lecture...
Can anyone really see anything other than no deal now? How does any other eventually happen? Boris is not going to get another deal and he won’t call an election prior.
He doesn't understand Cabinet. Most decisions are taken in sub-committees which probably are the 5 or 6 people he thinks is a meeting. Much of main Cabinet is grandstanding, waffle, general catch up and also for the big big difficult decisions (but even then often rubber stamping a No.10 decision).
But no he is not a conservative. Blue skies thinker is the polite term I believe. Wrecking ball might be another less polite term.
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
Ah, the faith PB Brexiteers have in the German car manufacturers riding in on their unicorns like Blücher's Prussians at Waterloo to save their fantasy at the last minute is nothing short of touching.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
After that we won't be begging, you don't know Britain very well if you think we will turn to begging, but we will remain open to a deal the moment they want to drop their delusionally undemocratic backstop demands. The backstop was a disgrace that they tried to foist on us and if they get nothing instead that is their choice.
Following an election there are two plausible outcomes. Boris wins a majority to back No Deal, we won't beg after that. Or Boris loses and Corbyn gets a rainbow majority to have a 2nd referendum. There is no realistic alternative.
What you fail to understand about the backstop, although god knows it has been pointed out countless times, is that it was a joint agreement between the EU and the UK reflecting the UK's desire not to put the future of Northern Ireland in jeopardy. It was as much us as them.
That Boris et al, after of course backing it, now seems so dead set against it is evidence that they don't know or don't care about the situation in Northern Ireland. Or else believe they can stonewall the WTO should circumstances arise whereby we are told by them to erect border controls.
Then again perhaps he is singing from Patrick Minford's hymnsheet and actually wants to unilaterally reduce tariffs to zero so as to reinvigorate British agriculture and industry. But perhaps not.
I understand it was a joint agreement "by the UK", though the UK as represented by dire remainers Robbins and May. Thankfully though we are a Parliamentary democracy and Parliament saw fit to reject May's godawful backstop containing deal. So the deal is dead, as are many international agreements throughout history that have failed to be ratified.
Now the backstop should die as it should never have been created in the first place. I don't care if you think its good, our politicians rejected it 3 times and now the PM rejects it too. Bye bye backstop. You insisted to me repeatedly that I was absurd and delusional in thinking it would ever be defeated, I've lost track of the amount of times you told me that the backstop would definitely ultimately pass, that I was a crazy idiot for thinking otherwise.
Premier Johnson has at least begun preparation for No Deal*. This is good. It is, admittedly, late. And one just has to look at the way we folded with the US over slots at Heathrow to get an air deal to replace Open Skies, and now are struggling with the Canadians over replicating CETA, to understand that we're negotiating with third parties from a position of weakness. Other issue, like taxation, seem to have been completely forgotten. But at least the UK government seems to be moving in the right direction.
Under No Deal, tariffs will apply between the UK and EU. How will this work logistically in Northern Ireland? You can be as prepared as you like on the rest of it, but without an answer to that question, you guarantee that No Deal becomes a major existential crisis for the UK.
Now the backstop should die as it should never have been created in the first place. I don't care if you think its good, our politicians rejected it 3 times and now the PM rejects it too. Bye bye backstop. You insisted to me repeatedly that I was absurd and delusional in thinking it would ever be defeated, I've lost track of the amount of times you told me that the backstop would definitely ultimately pass, that I was a crazy idiot for thinking otherwise.
The only Brexit prediction that is still intact is that we won't leave.
I like how to brexiteers blame May for ‘throwing away the majority’ rather than ‘the people took away her majority’.
Will of the people only when it suits.
Whilst I understand your point, the point being made about May is she called a completely unnecessary election when she had a working majority because she was dumb enough to think she had the ability to win a bigger majority. This flies in the face of all evidence from the past - people generally don't like unnecessary elections and, most importantly, she turned everything she touched to crap.
So yes, whilst it was the people who delivered the fatal wound, it was May who allowed them to do it by giving them the opportunity.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
People have been making variations of that argument for years now, so far with little evidence to suggest that they are right.
As England is to the UK, so Germany is to the EU. It is a simple matter of the biggest boy in the playground deciding the game. I am not saying this is a good or bad thing. It is just the way it is.
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
How much more leeway than the Barnett Formula do you want. The moon on every stick or something
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
And yet Germany gives much more leeway to the little fishes in its pond than England does in its. I guess Germany just must be more confident and at ease with itself.
How much more leeway than the Barnett Formula do you want. The moon on every stick or something
you moronic halfwit, we want the money that is robbed off us constantly , we don't want snivelling unionists taking a large cut first and then making us pay their debt interest. Unlike lickspittles such as you we know we can spend our own money in a much better way.
This mess is entirely May's fault for throwing away the majority and being so weak with the EU.
It does seem like the best way to get forward from here if the EU doesn't want to blink is to have an election, purge Parliament of people like Grieve and then move forwards with No Deal.
You criticise May in one sentence, and yet have exactly the same false certainty that an election will improve your position in Parliament in the next sentence.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
Quite. It’s really is Groundhog Day. I could be reading posts from 3 years ago. May’s approval rating at the start of her premiership was 44, Boris is on -18 IIRC. Yet people like @Philip_Thompson seem to think that the same trick will produce a better result this time.
Excuse me, I opposed May from the outset.
I know but it’s not the point. The point is that you’re a Tory who thinks that an early election will result in an improved position for your party as many of you did (even if you didn’t personally) three years ago. Yet you (collectively) have learned nothing. The evidence was if anything more persuasive of an early election for May but it backfired spectacularly. In terms of personal approval your current buffoon is in a far worse position.
Except I didn't say it would result in an improved position for the party. I said it may do [even just by replacing Grieve and his ilk with new Tories who will follow the whip]. I also said Corbyn may win. You snipped out a very relevant party of my post in order to make your criticism - this was how I ended the post you snipped.
Following an election there are two plausible outcomes. Boris wins a majority to back No Deal, we won't beg after that. Or Boris loses and Corbyn gets a rainbow majority to have a 2nd referendum. There is no realistic alternative.
I don't see how suggesting Corbyn could realistically win a rainbow majority is me saying the Tories "will" improve their position. I think at the minute Parliament is deadlocked and if it won't make a decision then the responsible thing to do is to hold an election and let the people sort it out - if we lose then so be it.
Can anyone really see anything other than no deal now? How does any other eventually happen? Boris is not going to get another deal and he won’t call an election prior.
Can anyone really see anything other than no deal now? How does any other eventually happen? Boris is not going to get another deal and he won’t call an election prior.
No deal it is I think, he is stupid enough.
He needs an election to No Deal, unless he engineers the timing of an election to be such that we drop out during the campaign period when HoC is not sitting.
Or, enough Labour MPs break Seamus's Whip and agree to back WA.
I like how to brexiteers blame May for ‘throwing away the majority’ rather than ‘the people took away her majority’.
Will of the people only when it suits.
Whilst I understand your point, the point being made about May is she called a completely unnecessary election when she had a working majority because she was dumb enough to think she had the ability to win a bigger majority. This flies in the face of all evidence from the past - people generally don't like unnecessary elections and, most importantly, she turned everything she touched to crap.
So yes, whilst it was the people who delivered the fatal wound, it was May who allowed them to do it by giving them the opportunity.
Indeed May's hubris was her own nemesis.
Not only that, but May's hubris in calling an unnecessary election then failing to turn up to the debates was unforgiveable. Then we have the absurd Tory manifesto that was all about the unplanned, unpolled and unfloated dementia tax, ending the triple lock on pensions etc and nothing like "£350mn for the NHS" or any good news.
Once a staunch unionist, I am coming round to the idea of Scottish independence being a good thing. Only when the last remanent of empire is extinguished can we become (a) modern nation(s). That means the British state itself.
Can anyone really see anything other than no deal now? How does any other eventually happen? Boris is not going to get another deal and he won’t call an election prior.
No deal it is I think, he is stupid enough.
He needs an election to No Deal, unless he engineers the timing of an election to be such that we drop out during the campaign period when HoC is not sitting.
Or, enough Labour MPs break Seamus's Whip and agree to back WA.
If there’s no legislation to amend and no VONC how can ‘no deal’ be stopped?
The problem Barnier has that if the WA is not signed then he will be always know in future as the man who held all the cards, had the worlds best negotiating team and still could not get a deal.
So anything he says take with a pinch of salt. it is the response of the leaders that is important.
yes, Barnier got greedy and atm has nothing to show for it but a big downside for everyone. Almost as stupid as Varadkar
If Mr Varadkar believes the EU will stand behind Ireland even at the cost of the German economy (already in the doldrums) then he does not understand who is in charge.
Ah, the faith PB Brexiteers have in the German car manufacturers riding in on their unicorns like Blücher's Prussians at Waterloo to save their fantasy at the last minute is nothing short of touching.
You appear to believe that any suggestion anybody makes that disagrees with your position automatically makes that person insane and equivalent to Adolf Hitler. You must be a terrible negotiator. In fact, directly equivalent to the way you perceive anybody else’s negotiating strategy.
Have you ever dealt with the EU institutions or their leaders at a high level? Have you ever spoken to the leaders of industry in Germany or the other EU states?
You appear, and this is emblematic of people in politics on all sides at the moment, to think that equating people to a fascist dictator and refusing to accept that other people can have valid perspectives is equivalent to positing an argument.
Sad for you, sad for your colleagues, sad for politics.
Is it possible the polls will mislead us hugely in terms of what will happen at the next election, whenever that may be? There are so many "what-ifs", never mind the "when-ifs". It's a pure punt.
Comments
That Boris et al, after of course backing it, now seems so dead set against it is evidence that they don't know or don't care about the situation in Northern Ireland. Or else believe they can stonewall the WTO should circumstances arise whereby we are told by them to erect border controls.
Then again perhaps he is singing from Patrick Minford's hymnsheet and actually wants to unilaterally reduce tariffs to zero so as to reinvigorate British agriculture and industry. But perhaps not.
The pro-EU Tory members would be playing into the hands of the PM.
Er, I mean Trafnidiaeth Cymru
Now Jerusalem, that's a tune.
But it's true anyway, England is less of a proper country than Scotland is. That's just a fact. As someone with links to both countries I think I can be fairly objective about it.
Errhhh...remind me about how he treated people in 2017....not just online, but in person...
"Scotland is a nation-state/country - it is though isn't it?"
The Torys would have a straight position of leave and Labour remain which means no serious blue of blue. Any Tory would really have to think very hard to support a Corbyn campaign so they would come down on supporting remain form afar or go on holiday.
The 2017 general election was farcical, are the Tories really going to make the same mistake again?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1154407552328839169?s=20
I know car thermometers are not necessarily that accurate, but it is too hot to d much.
Thatcher was behind improving it later to a Single Market and Customs union. Logically, a single market also requires free movement of labour otherwise distortions would emerge.
But the UK in its heart never accepted this. To them it was always a market. To the Europeans, it was always more than a market. The founders of ECSC, the predecessor of the EEC, with recent horrific memories of the war[s] never wanted their people to go through that again. They believed, rightly, that the best insurance of avoiding a major conflict in Europe was closer and closer cooperation; economic, political, cultural etc. They succeeded. One thing we noticed in the last 10 years with all the problems post 2008 debt crisis, no country [ except UK ] wanted to leave the EU or the Euro. Not even Greece. Italy also will not in the end whatever Salvini says.
This difference between the UK and the EU will not be resolved unless the UK also accepts the ever closer union. The younger generation already do. The older generation do not.
If only his party had the same ideological amount of commitment and we had zero SNP members in Westminster.
Best Tour in years. Down to Alaphillippe, and Movistar disrupting everything.
Let's face it, we are not that important and those who will buy BMW will still buy a BMW even with 10% tariff added to it. I am not so sure about Qashqai.
Comment 1 of 2
I always said that the best negotiating tactic is to speak softly, but carry a big stick. I.e., be incredibly measured, and polite, and constructive in public. But to have done as much as possible to prepare for failure of talks. Your words carry far more weight when you hae a credible plan b.
Instead, we had Mrs May carrying no stick at all, while being first rude, then craven.
I have no doubt that Boris Johnson was correct when, in late 2018, he called for an extension to restart the negotiating process, this time while putting in proper preparations for No Deal.
Premier Johnson has at least begun preparation for No Deal*. This is good. It is, admittedly, late. And one just has to look at the way we folded with the US over slots at Heathrow to get an air deal to replace Open Skies, and now are struggling with the Canadians over replicating CETA, to understand that we're negotiating with third parties from a position of weakness. Other issue, like taxation, seem to have been completely forgotten. But at least the UK government seems to be moving in the right direction.
It is still too early to know how Premier Johnson will approach the EU27. I hope it will be constructively.
* OK, he's started talking about preparations.
I wonder what he thinks of the monarchy...
https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/1154311240006742016
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
It's lastsecond.boris .
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/23/opinion/boris-johnson-england-brexit.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324463
"Should NI, which is not a country, join the ROI, which is"
God knows what they've got planned for indyref2
But no he is not a conservative. Blue skies thinker is the polite term I believe. Wrecking ball might be another less polite term.
https://youtu.be/xBWmkwaTQ0k
Now the backstop should die as it should never have been created in the first place. I don't care if you think its good, our politicians rejected it 3 times and now the PM rejects it too. Bye bye backstop. You insisted to me repeatedly that I was absurd and delusional in thinking it would ever be defeated, I've lost track of the amount of times you told me that the backstop would definitely ultimately pass, that I was a crazy idiot for thinking otherwise.
Will of the people only when it suits.
So yes, whilst it was the people who delivered the fatal wound, it was May who allowed them to do it by giving them the opportunity.
Following an election there are two plausible outcomes. Boris wins a majority to back No Deal, we won't beg after that. Or Boris loses and Corbyn gets a rainbow majority to have a 2nd referendum. There is no realistic alternative.
I don't see how suggesting Corbyn could realistically win a rainbow majority is me saying the Tories "will" improve their position. I think at the minute Parliament is deadlocked and if it won't make a decision then the responsible thing to do is to hold an election and let the people sort it out - if we lose then so be it.
Or, enough Labour MPs break Seamus's Whip and agree to back WA.
Not only that, but May's hubris in calling an unnecessary election then failing to turn up to the debates was unforgiveable. Then we have the absurd Tory manifesto that was all about the unplanned, unpolled and unfloated dementia tax, ending the triple lock on pensions etc and nothing like "£350mn for the NHS" or any good news.
He just has contempt for it, and any other institutions which get in the way. And he is a very, very good propagandist.
If Grieve and co vote No Confidence in the government then expulsion will be automatic.
Have you ever dealt with the EU institutions or their leaders at a high level? Have you ever spoken to the leaders of industry in Germany or the other EU states?
You appear, and this is emblematic of people in politics on all sides at the moment, to think that equating people to a fascist dictator and refusing to accept that other people can have valid perspectives is equivalent to positing an argument.
Sad for you, sad for your colleagues, sad for politics.