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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited July 2019

    Almost every fellow Lib Dem member that I know cast their vote on the first day that the online voting opened. I imagine that's been very much the pattern across the whole party. Nothing that's happened in the last 2 or 3 weeks will have had any impact on the result whatsoever IMHO.
    Except that all the reports are that turnout has been sluggish
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,798

    Oh, well it will be 'the wrong type of No Deal', not what they had in mind at all, and it was foisted on us by the EU, and extremists in the X/Y/Z Party, and if Remainers hadn't opposed it so stubbornly it would have all been OK.

    Everybody else's fault.
    Of course. But the margin for error available to a Johnson government is non existent - and it’s quite difficult to see how he might engineer a general election whose circumstances benefit him.
    Trying to run no deal Britain with no majority is likely to be quite painful.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited July 2019

    Oh, well it will be 'the wrong type of No Deal', not what they had in mind at all, and it was foisted on us by the EU, and extremists in the X/Y/Z Party, and if Remainers hadn't opposed it so stubbornly it would have all been OK.

    Everybody else's fault.
    I doubt many people will buy it - that sort of thing will only work for those that somehow keep their living standards as they used to be. If people don't Boris will cop all the blame..

    I still stand by my statement that the Tory party is finished - time of death is just dependent on how things play out...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Almost every fellow Lib Dem member that I know cast their vote on the first day that the online voting opened. I imagine that's been very much the pattern across the whole party. Nothing that's happened in the last 2 or 3 weeks will have had any impact on the result whatsoever IMHO.
    Took the contest and decision seriously then? Surely the whole advantage of online decision is that you can leave your voting late without having to fret about your ballot getting delayed in the post?

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    eek said:

    Only for those that some how keep their living standards as they used to be. If people don't Boris will cop all the blame..

    I still stand by my statement that the Tory party is finished - time of death is just dependent on how things play out...
    Finished or cryogenically stored sine die.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    Boris isn't serious about anything! (Well, getting into No10 and staying as long as poss, maybe, but....)

    He won't ask for an extension because that would pee off the crowd that got him into office, and without any compensation whatever. He would be everyone's enemy.

    He can just about survive being VONC'd, for a bit.

    He might also survive No Deal, for a bit, although I suspect the reality would be so gruesome he may well wish he hadn't.

    Pee them off, yes, but would they bring him down? I sense not.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Johnson has promised he won’t have an election, that there won’t be a hard border in Ireland, that we will leave on October 31st...

    And he’s only just realised that these are contradictory promises without complete control over Parliament, and even then only by passing the WA?

    HIs advisers must be very pleased to know that he always likes to have “lots of options” until the last minute. Options like, do I support remain or leave?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Chris said:

    My point is simple enough. Parliament is sovereign - which you seem to agree with, apart from the pedantic bit of semantics about the Crown.

    The question is whether Parliament has the will to exert its sovereignty. I'm saying the majority against prorogation is a piece of evidence we can use in judging that.

    If Parliament did make up its mind, then the idea of a Prime Minister frustrating its will by legalistic manoeuvres lies in the realm of fantasy.
    Not at all. David is absolutely right. Parliament cannot force the Government to do something that is covered by Royal Prerogative against its will. Their only recourse is to get rid of the Government. What you are suggesting is counter to the current legal position.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Afternoon all :)

    As an aside, I'm sure those who tell us it's a mistake if Jo Swinson is elected leader would say exactly the same if Ed Davey got the job.

    I've read David H's piece, for which, as always, David, many thanks. I'm trying to cut through the thicket of all this. I'm left with the view the EU negotiates with the UK Government not the Commons so parliamentary mechanics will have little significance. The EU will deal with whomsoever is in front of them.

    It seems the EU are prepared to throw Boris an elephant-trap shaped bone. An extension to the man who has ruled out any extension. He may be able to wibble on about technicalities and legislation but to most people it will look sas though he has reneged on his primary commitment to get the UK out of the EU.

    There "could" still be an early October election with a snap campaign called in mid September (as happened in 1974) and I think that has to be Boris's primary opportunity to change the parliamentary arithmetic. As Wednesday showed, there "remain" (so to speak) a core of 30-40 MPs who will never agree to No Deal to balance the ERG who would never agree to the WA.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As an aside, I'm sure those who tell us it's a mistake if Jo Swinson is elected leader would say exactly the same if Ed Davey got the job.

    I've read David H's piece, for which, as always, David, many thanks. I'm trying to cut through the thicket of all this. I'm left with the view the EU negotiates with the UK Government not the Commons so parliamentary mechanics will have little significance. The EU will deal with whomsoever is in front of them.

    It seems the EU are prepared to throw Boris an elephant-trap shaped bone. An extension to the man who has ruled out any extension. He may be able to wibble on about technicalities and legislation but to most people it will look sas though he has reneged on his primary commitment to get the UK out of the EU.

    There "could" still be an early October election with a snap campaign called in mid September (as happened in 1974) and I think that has to be Boris's primary opportunity to change the parliamentary arithmetic. As Wednesday showed, there "remain" (so to speak) a core of 30-40 MPs who will never agree to No Deal to balance the ERG who would never agree to the WA.

    FTPA requires 25 days notice. Unless called by September 5th you are hitting October 17th for an election - that doesn't give enough time for the legal paperwork to be done for No Deal.

    Basically Boris has to decide on Wednesday if he wants a general election - after that time has run out...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    alex. said:

    Apparently there is no UN embargo. They are EU sanctions.
    Apologies. I believed it was UN. That does make it more difficult legally. Was the Iranian ship in EU waters?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    IanB2 said:

    I don’t think he sits down and reasons out, “if I pick a fight with these four left wing Democrats, the rest of the Democratic party will surely rally around them, which will make them all look more left wing, and increase the chance that I will face a left winger in 2020, so maximising my chance of re-election”.

    It’s simply an instinct that if he needles these four, his core supporters coming to his next rally will like it”. Period. If his supporters like what he is doing, and his opponents hate it, it must be right. Similarly with Hopkins. He sees her nonsense and thinks an RT will play well with the right people and upset the right people.


    OK so one step of logic and it ends there. So basically an idiot (or one level up).

    The person I described was very complex. Not a simple crook. There was an enormous trail in intrigue and events with the sole aim of 'Me, Me, Me', at the expense of absolutely anything and anyone. But the really bizarre thing was he could have used those skills and effort to produce as good an outcome for himself and others as well. Me leaving the job was as a direct result of his actions which was one of his intention. I didn't know that at the time. Bizarrely me leaving however was his downfall when what he was doing all came to light due to my new role. It eventually brought the whole company down. It was the start of a new and happy career for me that lasted nearly 25 years before I retired recently.

    So Trump is not as good as him then? Or is he?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    eek said:

    FTPA requires 25 days notice. Unless called by September 5th you are hitting October 17th for an election - that doesn't give enough time for the legal paperwork to be done for No Deal.

    Basically Boris has to decide on Wednesday if he wants a general election - after that time has run out...
    Presumably he could try do recall Parliament for the purpose of calling an election?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited July 2019
    Chris said:

    Let's be realistic. None of the political stuff is really as bad as "grab them by the vagina."

    Under the 2003 Sexual Offences Act, Section 3, headed "Sexual Assault":
    (1)A person (A) commits an offence if—
    (a)he intentionally touches another person (B),
    (b)the touching is sexual,
    (c)B does not consent to the touching, and
    (d)A does not reasonably believe that B consents.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/42/section/3

    I don't think any court would accept as justification under (d) that "When you’re a star they let you do it."

    Out of his own mouth, Trump is clearly guilty of sexual assault. It's a disgrace that under the guise of political expediency he was wined and dined by our political leaders and the Queen was forced to entertain this person.

    Truly it was. It was a national humiliation. Reason I know this is that I felt humiliated as I watched it. Worse, the feeling persisted. For about a week I was walking around with my eyes on the ground and my voice was little more than a croaking mumble. Which is not like me. Normally I smile and whistle.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As an aside, I'm sure those who tell us it's a mistake if Jo Swinson is elected leader would say exactly the same if Ed Davey got the job.

    I've read David H's piece, for which, as always, David, many thanks. I'm trying to cut through the thicket of all this. I'm left with the view the EU negotiates with the UK Government not the Commons so parliamentary mechanics will have little significance. The EU will deal with whomsoever is in front of them.

    It seems the EU are prepared to throw Boris an elephant-trap shaped bone. An extension to the man who has ruled out any extension. He may be able to wibble on about technicalities and legislation but to most people it will look sas though he has reneged on his primary commitment to get the UK out of the EU.

    There "could" still be an early October election with a snap campaign called in mid September (as happened in 1974) and I think that has to be Boris's primary opportunity to change the parliamentary arithmetic. As Wednesday showed, there "remain" (so to speak) a core of 30-40 MPs who will never agree to No Deal to balance the ERG who would never agree to the WA.

    They don't need parliament to agree to No Deal though: they need it to actively stop it. The advantage of legislative inertia lies with the Brexiteers.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    alex. said:

    Presumably he could try do recall Parliament for the purpose of calling an election?

    That requires 440MPs to attend and vote for an election.

    I suspect the end result would be very embarrassing for Boris (granted it probably doesn't look good for anyone but it would be awful for him),,,
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    alex. said:

    Took the contest and decision seriously then? Surely the whole advantage of online decision is that you can leave your voting late without having to fret about your ballot getting delayed in the post?

    The Lib Dems wanted the symbolism of first woman leader. They closed off their brains and just ticked that box. Makes the election a bit of a farce.

    Symbolism is a luxury the Lib Dems, and the Union, cannot afford.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,798



    Apologies. I believed it was UN. That does make it more difficult legally. Was the Iranian ship in EU waters?

    I believe so, though I’m not certain.
    Which is pretty well the case with the tanker’s destination, too.

    The legal justification for its seizure is questionable, and not just by the Iranians.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Chris said:

    My point is simple enough. Parliament is sovereign - which you seem to agree with, apart from the pedantic bit of semantics about the Crown.

    The question is whether Parliament has the will to exert its sovereignty. I'm saying the majority against prorogation is a piece of evidence we can use in judging that.

    If Parliament did make up its mind, then the idea of a Prime Minister frustrating its will by legalistic manoeuvres lies in the realm of fantasy.
    But with respect, that's all vague generalities. What exactly do you think Parliament could do to 'exert its sovereignty'? And how? As I say, gestures and motions are of only symbolic importance. Parliament has *already* legislated for No Deal, subject to a deal being ratified, and that overrides any motions in the House.

    As an aside, it's not pedantic semantics to talk about the crown. We're not referencing the Queen here: we're talking about the government exercising its own powers. It's a duality.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As an aside, I'm sure those who tell us it's a mistake if Jo Swinson is elected leader would say exactly the same if Ed Davey got the job.

    I've read David H's piece, for which, as always, David, many thanks. I'm trying to cut through the thicket of all this. I'm left with the view the EU negotiates with the UK Government not the Commons so parliamentary mechanics will have little significance. The EU will deal with whomsoever is in front of them.

    It seems the EU are prepared to throw Boris an elephant-trap shaped bone. An extension to the man who has ruled out any extension. He may be able to wibble on about technicalities and legislation but to most people it will look sas though he has reneged on his primary commitment to get the UK out of the EU.

    There "could" still be an early October election with a snap campaign called in mid September (as happened in 1974) and I think that has to be Boris's primary opportunity to change the parliamentary arithmetic. As Wednesday showed, there "remain" (so to speak) a core of 30-40 MPs who will never agree to No Deal to balance the ERG who would never agree to the WA.

    Did the Lib Dems ever vote for a new donkey, nothing been heard of it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Apologies. I believed it was UN. That does make it more difficult legally. Was the Iranian ship in EU waters?
    Was in Gibralter and still is so yes.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    I follow David's logic but I think last week's vote to be very significant for the following reasons.

    Firstly the vote wasn't actually about prorogation, a course of action Johnson was unlikely to take anyway. It was about parliament asserting its right to be part of any decision, and generally also to close off No Deal as that decision.

    Secondly, Johnson is coming into his premiership with even less authority than Theresa May. He is at most influential now because he hasn't yet distributed his patronage or disappointed those that will miss out on the jobs. Despite this, he saw more of his. MPs vote against than May did on a similar vote.

    The implications are unclear, but I suggest:

    Second ref or revoke becomes less likely the more you prioritise Deal

    Johnson has a very narrow set of options.

    1. Ignore parliament and go all out for No Deal by Oct 31. This is so reckless as to be almost impossible to succeed IMO. Parliament, the EU, Scotland, NI will all react very negatively. At some point he will need their buy in.
    2. Co-opt parliament for Deal or possibly A50 extension ahead of an election.
    3. Go straight to election, but this depends on parliament who will exact a price.

    Only option 2 looks to be somewhat viable for Johnson.


  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485


    The Lib Dems wanted the symbolism of first woman leader. They closed off their brains and just ticked that box. Makes the election a bit of a farce.

    Symbolism is a luxury the Lib Dems, and the Union, cannot afford.

    I voted for Ed Davey but I've no issue with Jo as leader. Your dislike for her seems quite profound.

    For a different and interesting perspective on Davey and Swinson, I'd recommend this:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-lib-dem-dilemma-will-they-go-into-coalition-if-it-helps-stop-brexit-a4192026.html

    It asks the difficult questions and makes some interesting points. The LDs I talk to consider Johnson and Corbyn as bad as each other - never has equidistance been such an easy policy to sell.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    FF43 said:

    I follow David's logic but I think last week's vote to be very significant for the following reasons.

    Firstly the vote wasn't actually about prorogation, a course of action Johnson was unlikely to take anyway. It was about parliament asserting its right to be part of any decision, and generally also to close off No Deal as that decision.

    Secondly, Johnson is coming into his premiership with even less authority than Theresa May. He is at most influential now because he hasn't yet distributed his patronage or disappointed those that will miss out on the jobs. Despite this, he saw more of his. MPs vote against than May did on a similar vote.

    The implications are unclear, but I suggest:

    Second ref or revoke becomes less likely the more you prioritise Deal

    Johnson has a very narrow set of options.

    1. Ignore parliament and go all out for No Deal by Oct 31. This is so reckless as to be almost impossible to succeed IMO. Parliament, the EU, Scotland, NI will all react very negatively. At some point he will need their buy in.
    2. Co-opt parliament for Deal or possibly A50 extension ahead of an election.
    3. Go straight to election, but this depends on parliament who will exact a price.

    Only option 2 looks to be somewhat viable for Johnson.


    On 1, as much as I hate to admit it, if he decides to go balls-out for no deal only Parliament and Bercow can actually stop him. I think Picanniny-Letterbox would rather be the undisputed PM of England than the short-lived PM of Great Britain and I'm worried he might be willing to explode the union on that basis.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Well the first thing that will happen is that HYUFD will be on here telling us that it is proof of a Boris bounce, leading to a renogotiated Deal, and a landslide win for the Conversatives at the subsequent GE.
    As certain as death and taxes.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Well the first thing that will happen is that HYUFD will be on here telling us that it is proof of a Boris bounce, leading to a renogotiated Deal, and a landslide win for the Conversatives at the subsequent GE.
    It might not be a Boris bounce.
    Nevertheless, the next sentence in my opinion will be correct.A landslide win for the conservatives at the next GE in England.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Trumps obsession with the London mayor continues.. Retweeting Katie Hopkins of all things

    If the London Mayor wasn't a muslim he would have no interest in the subject whatsoever
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    As usual an extremely well written summary by David Herdson. What price an emergency revoke in late October ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    OllyT said:

    If the London Mayor wasn't a muslim he would have no interest in the subject whatsoever
    If the German Chancellor wasn’t a woman, he might have different views about that too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    eek said:

    I doubt many people will buy it - that sort of thing will only work for those that somehow keep their living standards as they used to be. If people don't Boris will cop all the blame..

    I still stand by my statement that the Tory party is finished - time of death is just dependent on how things play out...
    No, the Tory Party is not finished provides it delivers Brexit, if it does not then the Brexit Party will replace it.

    The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    stodge said:

    I voted for Ed Davey but I've no issue with Jo as leader. Your dislike for her seems quite profound.

    For a different and interesting perspective on Davey and Swinson, I'd recommend this:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-lib-dem-dilemma-will-they-go-into-coalition-if-it-helps-stop-brexit-a4192026.html

    It asks the difficult questions and makes some interesting points. The LDs I talk to consider Johnson and Corbyn as bad as each other - never has equidistance been such an easy policy to sell.
    I wouldn’t say I disliked Swinson. I just think she’s total rubbish.

    I banged on for years about how crap Jim Murphy was, and I actually quite liked the guy when we were at university together.

    Pointing out that a politician is ineffective is not the same as disliking them as a person. A lot of my favourite opponents strike me as being quite interesting people. I’ve never met Wendy Alexander (who used to live opposite a pal) or her wee brother Douglas; not Kezia Dugdale; but I’d like to! Not Iain Gray or Richard Leonard though: they come across as dull and tedious. Bit thick.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:



    The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it

    The demographics don't really agree with you there. If the Tories can't win any voters under 40 then their coalition will literally die.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    HYUFD said:

    No, the Tory Party is not finished provides it delivers Brexit, if it does not then the Brexit Party will replace it.

    The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it
    If everyone gets the unicorn they want the Tory party is fine - if it doesn't the person and party in power will get all the blame for a long period of time...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    As usual an extremely well written summary by David Herdson. What price an emergency revoke in late October ?

    Cheers for the comment.

    I think an emergency revoke is a very low chance. Another A50 is entirely possible though (and procedurally much simpler). That could lead through to Revoke at a later date, via one route or another.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    HYUFD said:

    No, the Tory Party is not finished provides it delivers Brexit, if it does not then the Brexit Party will replace it.

    The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it
    The LDs are replacing the Conservatives, not Labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited July 2019
    Bad positioning of tents at Newcastle Pride.

    The co-op funeral service with a rainbow coloured coffin is next to the STI testing service..
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chris said:

    My point is simple enough. Parliament is sovereign - which you seem to agree with, apart from the pedantic bit of semantics about the Crown.

    The question is whether Parliament has the will to exert its sovereignty. I'm saying the majority against prorogation is a piece of evidence we can use in judging that.

    If Parliament did make up its mind, then the idea of a Prime Minister frustrating its will by legalistic manoeuvres lies in the realm of fantasy.
    It isn't a pedantic bit of semantics. The sovereignty of the Crown in Parliament simply means that Acts of Parliament overrule everything else. Even if you were halfway right, "Parliament" doesn't just mean the HOC, there's the Lords too.

    And the actions of a foreign national outside the UK are not covered by the SOA 2003.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not looking forward to high nocturnal temperatures forecast for next week.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846

    Questions that the Herald is a Unionist newspaper... and then admits that he doesn’t really know because he never reads a paper.

    Great to have such high quality debaters and commenters here at PB. The depth of expertise is mind-blowing.
    I questioned the emphasis on the implacability of their unionist ediorial line due to the presence in their stable of their sister 'newspaper'. I said that's why I was questioning it, without claiming any further expertise.

    Coming from someone who recently went on a bizarre lunatic rant about how 'English wine shelves' are full of New world wines with very few wines from continental Europe (I mean really, what the actual fuck?) I'll take your critique with a sack of salt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    alex. said:

    Trump can get away with repeatedly saying and doing stupid things in Foreign affairs because ultimately nobody wants to mess with America. Johnson will not have the same safety net.

    Britain has nuclear weapons and could wipe Iran off the map if it chose to, though of course it will not.

    However I would say we have the fourth most effective and powerful military overall globally behind the US, China and Russia and tied with France
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    stodge said:

    I voted for Ed Davey but I've no issue with Jo as leader. Your dislike for her seems quite profound.

    For a different and interesting perspective on Davey and Swinson, I'd recommend this:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-lib-dem-dilemma-will-they-go-into-coalition-if-it-helps-stop-brexit-a4192026.html

    It asks the difficult questions and makes some interesting points. The LDs I talk to consider Johnson and Corbyn as bad as each other - never has equidistance been such an easy policy to sell.
    Splendid isolation is a lovely policy until you find you have to choose one side or the other - as, for example, if there is a VoNC in October.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    The LDs are replacing the Conservatives, not Labour.
    Remain Tory party voters will have no choice but to leave the party if Brexit is everything (as it appears to be)... So the LDs have got that vote probably forever...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Britain has nuclear weapons and could wipe Iran off the map if it chose to, though of course it will not.

    However I would say we have the fourth most effective and powerful military overall globally behind the US, China and Russia and tied with France
    No we couldn't. We can't use our nukes without America's say so. The last time we did a test, they turned tail and went to Florida. We need to wise up on this point.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    OnboardG1 said:


    On 1, as much as I hate to admit it, if he decides to go balls-out for no deal only Parliament and Bercow can actually stop him. I think Picanniny-Letterbox would rather be the undisputed PM of England than the short-lived PM of Great Britain and I'm worried he might be willing to explode the union on that basis.
    In the narrowest sense you are right. But Johnson won't be able to get any cooperation for enabling legislation, for the mini-est of deals with the EU. Scotland, Northern Ireland and business groups will be in open revolt. Johnson doesn't have the authority to face these groups down, as last week's vote clearly demonstrated.

    Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest, irresponsible and lazy, but he is far from stupid. He knows Brexit has to win some level of acceptance.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    alex. said:

    Took the contest and decision seriously then? Surely the whole advantage of online decision is that you can leave your voting late without having to fret about your ballot getting delayed in the post?

    Very seriously! Frankly we've all been thinking about, and talking about, who we want as next leader for over 2 years now! :) This is the contest that we should have had in 2017 so I really don't think anyone in the Lib Dems can be accused of not thinking it through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Iran isn't subject to EU law.

    It's a shame you weren't elected last year; you could have swung Epping Parish behind the drive to war.
    Wrong, they are when they are in Gibraltarian waters as the Iranian tanker was
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Except that all the reports are that turnout has been sluggish
    Well I can only speak about the people I know... who are mostly highly active members. I don't, almost by definition, have any contact with non-active members. :) The people I know are representative of the people most likely to cast votes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    HYUFD said:

    No, the Tory Party is not finished provides it delivers Brexit, if it does not then the Brexit Party will replace it.

    The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it
    It is *very* difficult to kill a political party. Certainly the Brexit Party could eclispe the Tories for a short time but the reality is that it's a campaign group with a sideline in electioneering. Can you imagine them in government? Boris might be chaotic and Corbyn worse but Farage would take it not just to a new level but to a new galaxy.

    There will always be space for a sensible, pragmatic centre-right party. That isn't guaranteed to be the Tories but there isn't anyone challenging for that space right now, no matter how much Boris might be vacating it.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Tories don't need to. They need to at a minimum hold their existing seats replacing any defectors.

    A few gains gives a majority. They won't prioritise seats they can't possibly win.
    If the LDs remain strong they will take seats and the vast majority will be from the Conservatives. The number they win will depend on what happens with Farage.

    II the Tories don't do a deal with Farage the Brexit vote will fracture between the 2. If they do do a deal with Farage the Lib Dems could pick about 50 Tory seats.

    There really is no win-win path for Johnson in that respect.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I questioned the emphasis on the implacability of their unionist ediorial line due to the presence in their stable of their sister 'newspaper'. I said that's why I was questioning it, without claiming any further expertise.

    Coming from someone who recently went on a bizarre lunatic rant about how 'English wine shelves' are full of New world wines with very few wines from continental Europe (I mean really, what the actual fuck?) I'll take your critique with a sack of salt.
    The Mirror and Express are in the same stable too. If you don’t know what you are talking about, think twice before pressing post comment.

    As for “lunatic rant”, I was simply pointing out a fact: that English wine shelves are full of bottles from English speaking parts of the world. What evidence do you have to dispute that fact?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    The LDs are replacing the Conservatives, not Labour.
    Nope, the latest Yougov is Tories 25%, Labour 21%, LDs 20% so the LDs are closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories.

    Only 7% of 2017 Tories are now backing the LDs but 24% of 2017 Labour voters are now backing the LDs

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    No we couldn't. We can't use our nukes without America's say so. The last time we did a test, they turned tail and went to Florida. We need to wise up on this point.
    This is a complete myth.

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/no-america-doesnt-control-britains-nuclear-weapons/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    OllyT said:

    If the LDs remain strong they will take seats and the vast majority will be from the Conservatives. The number they win will depend on what happens with Farage.

    II the Tories don't do a deal with Farage the Brexit vote will fracture between the 2. If they do do a deal with Farage the Lib Dems could pick about 50 Tory seats.

    There really is no win-win path for Johnson in that respect.
    Wrong, the LDs won more Labour Remain seats in London and university cities in the European Parliament elections than they won their former seats in the Southwest which went Brexit Party instead
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    The Mirror and Express are in the same stable too. If you don’t know what you are talking about, think twice before pressing post comment.

    As for “lunatic rant”, I was simply pointing out a fact: that English wine shelves are full of bottles from English speaking parts of the world. What evidence do you have to dispute that fact?
    I'm guessing his answer make some reference to the very large number of bottles of - just for starters - French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Chilean and Argentinian wine on English shelves.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If our Nukes are on submarines, and subs can’t get close enough to fire missiles, how do we use them against Iran?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    OnboardG1 said:

    The demographics don't really agree with you there. If the Tories can't win any voters under 40 then their coalition will literally die.
    Wrong, the Tories have not won voters under 35 since 1983, they have won most seats in 5 general elections since then.

    The only time Labour has won the over 65 vote was 1997
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, the latest Yougov is Tories 25%, Labour 21%, LDs 20% so the LDs are closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories.

    Only 7% of 2017 Tories are now backing the LDs but 24% of 2017 Labour voters are now backing the LDs

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-
    The 2017 election tells you very little about the parties’ core voters. The Labour vote was hugely inflated by Remainers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    No we couldn't. We can't use our nukes without America's say so. The last time we did a test, they turned tail and went to Florida. We need to wise up on this point.
    That is not correct

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/no-america-doesnt-control-britains-nuclear-weapons/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    The Mirror and Express are in the same stable too. If you don’t know what you are talking about, think twice before pressing post comment.

    As for “lunatic rant”, I was simply pointing out a fact: that English wine shelves are full of bottles from English speaking parts of the world. What evidence do you have to dispute that fact?
    This is the comment you made:


    English wine shelves are row upon row of Australian, NZ, Californian, SA etc wines, and very, very skimpy on the infinitely better products of her immediate geographical neighbours to the south and east.

    English wine consumers clearly are idiots, but fortunately for the country her businesspeople are not ideologues. They know that when it comes to procurement and export, geography is more important than language.

    Do you really think that is a sane and informed comment ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    alex. said:

    If our Nukes are on submarines, and subs can’t get close enough to fire missiles, how do we use them against Iran?

    A Trident missile has a range of 7500 miles. You could fire it from Lake Michigan and hit Tehran.

    (Although to be honest, Lake Michigan wouldn't be an ideal place to patrol from).
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Britain has nuclear weapons and could wipe Iran off the map if it chose to, though of course it will not.

    However I would say we have the fourth most effective and powerful military overall globally behind the US, China and Russia and tied with France
    Why is suddenly everything all about the military? There are many ways in which countries can choose to “mess with” the U.K. in a way in which they wouldn’t with the US, and the relative status of militaries is meaningless, since they wouldn’t be actions which would remotely justify military response.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741



    The 2017 election tells you very little about the parties’ core voters. The Labour vote was hugely inflated by Remainers.

    Was it, or was it inflated by people hating May's Dementia tax...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, the latest Yougov is ...
    How often does your favourite pollster change?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    HYUFD’s Tories/the Brexit Party are the heirs to Michael Foot’s national populism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    If our Nukes are on submarines, and subs can’t get close enough to fire missiles, how do we use them against Iran?

    Trident's range is 4000nm+, a British nuclear submarine could launch a nuclear weapon from the North Sea and hit central Tehran
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong, the Tories have not won voters under 35 since 1983, they have won most seats in 5 general elections since then.

    The only time Labour has won the over 65 vote was 1997
    I’ve definitely voted Tory on occasion when I was below 35 and post 1983.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    eek said:

    Was it, or was it inflated by people hating May's Dementia tax...
    Or who wanted no student fees.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    alex. said:

    I’ve definitely voted Tory on occasion when I was below 35 and post 1983.
    I've only voted for the Tories once at a general election and that was when I was 18.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    The 2017 election tells you very little about the parties’ core voters. The Labour vote was hugely inflated by Remainers.
    Who are now voting LD true, Corbyn Labour is now polling worse even than Foot's Labour did in 1983 in some polls, including Yougov and is down to its socialist core vote
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The 2017 election tells you very little about the parties’ core voters. The Labour vote was hugely inflated by Remainers.
    Remainers who were too lazy to spend 2 minutes looking up Corbyn's historic views on Europe.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong, the LDs won more Labour Remain seats in London and university cities in the European Parliament elections than they won their former seats in the Southwest which went Brexit Party instead


    Then you have a split right vote. The Tories are not going to stand aside.
    Tories don't need to. They need to at a minimum hold their existing seats replacing any defectors.

    A few gains gives a majority. They won't prioritise seats they can't possibly win.

    If the LDs remain strong they will take seats and the vast majority will be from the Conservatives. The number they win will depend on what happens with Farage.

    II the Tories don't do a deal with Farage the Brexit vote will fracture between the 2. If they do do a deal with Farage the Lib Dems could pick about 50 Tory seats.

    There really is no win-win path for Johnson in that respect.


    Wrong, the LDs won more Labour Remain seats in London and university cities in the European Parliament elections than they won their former seats in the Southwest which went Brexit Party instead

    European elections under PR are a different proposition to a GE. I think TBP will shave off enough Tory votes to dramatically increase the number of marginals across the whole of the south of England without them winning a single seat. We will know more on Friday 2nd about the relative strength of both TBP and LD who interestingly are the parties with highest certainty to vote figures in said pole
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542

    A Trident missile has a range of 7500 miles. You could fire it from Lake Michigan and hit Tehran.

    (Although to be honest, Lake Michigan wouldn't be an ideal place to patrol from).
    Oh I don't know. Nobody would expect you to be there.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong, the LDs won more Labour Remain seats in London and university cities in the European Parliament elections than they won their former seats in the Southwest which went Brexit Party instead
    There are plenty of former Tory remain voters in the South East that will switch to the Lib Dems if Johnson goes through with No Deal. There is more to the South East than Mark Francois Essex types.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    I’ve definitely voted Tory on occasion when I was below 35 and post 1983.
    Maybe but the average voter votes Labour or LD or Greens while a student and young in their 20s and early 30s, switches between the Tories and Labour or LDs (or Brexit Party now) when they get a job and maybe get married and buy a house in their late 30s, 40s and 50s and then tend to vote Tory (or Brexit Party at the moment) once they reach 65 and retirement age and keep doing so until they die
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,798
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but the average voter votes Labour or LD or Greens while a student and young in their 20s and early 30s, switches between the Tories and Labour or LDs (or Brexit Party now) when they get a job and maybe get married and buy a house in their late 30s, 40s and 50s and then tend to vote Tory (or Brexit Party at the moment) once they reach 65 and retirement age and keep doing so until they die
    Navigating by the rear view mirror again, I see.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but the average voter votes Labour or LD or Greens while a student and young in their 20s and early 30s, switches between the Tories and Labour or LDs (or Brexit Party now) when they get a job and maybe get married and buy a house in their late 30s, 40s and 50s and then tend to vote Tory (or Brexit Party at the moment) once they reach 65 and retirement age and keep doing so until they die
    Do they - that doesn't tally with my knowledge....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Who are now voting LD true, Corbyn Labour is now polling worse even than Foot's Labour did in 1983 in some polls, including Yougov and is down to its socialist core vote
    What is the Conservative equivalent benchmark - 1835?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    HYUFD’s Tories/the Brexit Party are the heirs to Michael Foot’s national populism.

    Tories plus Brexit Party on 44% in the latest Yougov, even 1% higher than Thatcher got in 1983 and 17% more than Foot's Labour Party got
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    AndyJS said:

    Remainers who were too lazy to spend 2 minutes looking up Corbyn's historic views on Europe.
    Corbyn’s views on Europe are irrelevant. We voted for him to stymie the government and it worked.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    edited July 2019

    Your second paragraph sounds like the HYUFD line! I'm afraid it's delusional.
    I hope you are right, but I am with HYUFD that Brexit- Tory voters are largely interchangeable and loyal to that cause.

    I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AndyJS said:

    Remainers who were too lazy to spend 2 minutes looking up Corbyn's historic views on Europe.
    Even so the remainers who voted Labour can console themselves with the thought that the 2017 parliament they elected was remarkably well set up to hinder the Brexit project.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    alex. said:

    What is the Conservative equivalent benchmark - 1835?
    1997, 1835 was pre universal suffrage
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Recidivist, possibly. Possibly it's well set up to deliver a no deal departure, the antithesis of what pro-EU types want.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD what policies do you think BXP will pursue once Farage is swept into power?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    eek said:

    Do they - that doesn't tally with my knowledge....
    64 year old liberal here. Voted LD or predecessor in every election except PCC where I deliberately abstain, Independent that I agreed with (and no liberal anyway) and a very faint memory (shudders when I think of it) Tory once to keep Labour out when I was very young.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    eek said:

    Do they - that doesn't tally with my knowledge....
    It does with the facts, the last time the Tories won under 30s was 1983 and the last time Labour won over 65s was 1997
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    HYUFD said:

    Tories plus Brexit Party on 44% in the latest Yougov, even 1% higher than Thatcher got in 1983 and 17% more than Foot's Labour Party got
    The Tory vote is still being propped up by inertia. If you really want to blow up your coalition, go for no deal.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    alex. said:

    HYUFD what policies do you think BXP will pursue once Farage is swept into power?

    Deliver Brexit on WTO terms.

    If Boris delivers Brexit though anti immigration and anti overseas aid etc
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    stodge said:

    I voted for Ed Davey but I've no issue with Jo as leader. Your dislike for her seems quite profound.

    For a different and interesting perspective on Davey and Swinson, I'd recommend this:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-lib-dem-dilemma-will-they-go-into-coalition-if-it-helps-stop-brexit-a4192026.html

    It asks the difficult questions and makes some interesting points. The LDs I talk to consider Johnson and Corbyn as bad as each other - never has equidistance been such an easy policy to sell.
    Hard to see the Tories offering a second referendum, so I suspect it will be a question of whether the Lib Dems are prepared to support Labour or not.

    Those remainer voters they hope to attract, likely won't be too impressed if the Lib Dems have the chance to get ref 2 and don't go for it.

    In policy terms, I don't really know what the major obstacles the Lib Dems had to the 2017 Labour manifesto. Perhaps someone can enlighten me?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    OllyT said:

    There are plenty of former Tory remain voters in the South East that will switch to the Lib Dems if Johnson goes through with No Deal. There is more to the South East than Mark Francois Essex types.
    Even the South East voted narrowly Leave, it is not London
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited July 2019

    The Tory vote is still being propped up by inertia. If you really want to blow up your coalition, go for no deal.

    34% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 18% of Remain voters are voting Tory and 30% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party with Yougov but only 7% of 2017 Tories are voting LD.

    The only thing that would blow up the Tories coalition is refusing to deliver Brexit.

    On those numbers the best a pro Remain and anti Brexit Tory Party could achieve is about 10 to 15% with the Brexit Party on 30%+.

    A pro Brexit Tory Party though can get 30 to 40%+

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    HYUFD said:



    34% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 18% of Remain voters are voting Tory and 30% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party with Yougov but only 7% of 2017 Tories are voting LD.

    The only thing that would blow up the Tories coalition is refusing to deliver Brexit

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-
    You think the 18% of Remainers would stay loyal to a No Deal party?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The Tory vote is still being propped up by inertia. If you really want to blow up your coalition, go for no deal.

    What do you think the Tories should do, then?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm still surprised May didn't add the threat of a second referendum (her deal versus remain) to one of her repeat tries to get her deal through the Commons.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm still surprised May didn't add the threat of a second referendum (her deal versus remain) to one of her repeat tries to get her deal through the Commons.

    How do you do a referendum with 3 options which the ERG would have insisted on...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm still surprised May didn't add the threat of a second referendum (her deal versus remain) to one of her repeat tries to get her deal through the Commons.

    It would have been a logical try.
    But I don't think either Boris or Hunt can possibly advocate ref 2 now.
    And they would go into ant future GE promising to get Brexit done, not offering a 2nd referendum.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kjh said:

    64 year old liberal here. Voted LD or predecessor in every election except PCC where I deliberately abstain, Independent that I agreed with (and no liberal anyway) and a very faint memory (shudders when I think of it) Tory once to keep Labour out when I was very young.
    +1 I’m 65
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    rkrkrk said:

    It would have been a logical try.
    But I don't think either Boris or Hunt can possibly advocate ref 2 now.
    And they would go into ant future GE promising to get Brexit done, not offering a 2nd referendum.
    It's obvious that the party offers for the next election will be:-

    Brexit - Leave tomorrow
    Tories - Leave (come what may) but slightly more sanely than Brexit with luck
    Labour - second ref
    LD / Green - revoke and Remain

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    34% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 18% of Remain voters are voting Tory and 30% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party with Yougov but only 7% of 2017 Tories are voting LD.

    The only thing that would blow up the Tories coalition is refusing to deliver Brexit.

    On those numbers the best a pro Remain and anti Brexit Tory Party could achieve is about 10 to 15% with the Brexit Party on 30%+.

    A pro Brexit Tory Party though can get 30 to 40%+

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-
    Not at all sure that voting is that mechanistic. I agonised over who to vote for in the Euro elections - I literally made my mind up in the polling booth. We don't know what the circumstances of the next election will be. The exact way it plays out might well have a big effect. I'll never vote for the Brexit Party, but I could conceive of voting for any of the other four next time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. eek, could make it two-stage, although I'd expected May to just make it Remain Versus May's Deal.

    Mr. rkrkrk, it's unlikely, though we live in strange political times.
This discussion has been closed.