Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal or No Confidence
Rarely can there have been such a disparity between the apparent dullness of the procedural minutiae of an amendment to a technical Bill about Northern Ireland, and the breathless attention paid it by the political commentariat as there was this week. Wrongly.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
With a new poll today having 48% of voters in marginal seats in the East Midlands backing No Deal (more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for further extension combined) as well as 46% of voters in marginal seats in the North West backing No Deal (again more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined) Boris will be confident of facing Corbyn on a ticket to deliver Brexit with him or risk no Brexit with Corbyn in enough Labour Leave marginals to deliver him a Tory majority
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/
Geography isn't exactly your strong point is it?
Anyhow, in anticipation of things kicking off in the Straits of Hormuz, the Emiratis have built a fecking huge oil terminal in Fujairah, with the oil moving there by pipeline. Clever folk.
The reason to believe he won't do it is because it would crash the economy, destroy the Conservative Party's reputation for competence, reboot The Troubles, and quite possibly ultimately result in an independent Scotland, and united Ireland, and rejoining the EU. Not to mention, it doesn't get him off the hook with angry brexitters, because against this backdrop he then has to try to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, which has all the same problems as negotiating the WA, and they'll be just as unimpressed by that as they were by the WA.
The upshot is that he probably doesn't want to do this, but he would also rather somebody else take responsibility for him not doing it. That's where these parliamentary maneuvers come in.
One thought that occurred to me reading the lead is that an election with a no deal Brexit in the middle of it is probably Corbyn’s best, if not only, chance.
The autumn isn't crunch time unless Boris Johnson volunteers to be crunched.
If they VoNC now, then the election would be before Brexit. But they can't tarry. A VoNC in September is almost certainly too late.
A brutal assessment of our MPs.
And so this week we enter the Borisic Age. It may not be one of the longer elements of the political time scale, but could still be marked by mighty moves of the techtonic plates. Expect earthquakes and tsunamis, as the UK moves away from Europe.....
A successful VONC followed by a Government of National Unity to prevent a No Deal Brexit by whatever means necessary would appear to be the least worst option.
Hilary Benn, Ken Clarke or Caroline Lucas - your time for stardom is near.
Good article, Mr. Herdson. MPs faffing about pointlessly sums up much of recent years.
If Parliament were to pass a no confidence vote and we get a general election, and if that election returned a Corbyn led government, what then? Corbyn won't revoke unless the Labour manifesto promised to do so, which it wouldn't have done because it would not be elected with such a promise. The new government would have to offer another referendum, having obtained a further extension from the EU. But asking what? It would have to be leave with no deal versus revoke, i.e. a more specific version of the 2016 vote. Back to square one.
Therefore, one of two things have to happen. Either a compromise temporary PM needs to be found, or there would need to be an election. If there was still plenty of time until the election (i.e. the VoNC was this month), then I think the second option wins.
But if time is limited, Corbyn would be forced to choose being blamed for "a Tory No Deal Brexit" and backing an interim PM.
Now, I think his interest is in choosing the latter option. But he'd have conditions. I think it would need to be a Labour MP, and one planning on stepping down at the next election. Hillary Benn is an interesting call. But I think PBers should also look at former Labour whip, Nick Brown. He's personally quite moderate, but has good relations with Jeremy Corbyn.
* When I say "very clear", what I actually mean is "completely ridiculous"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5
The elites taking over mantra would be very powerful.
LDs, Lab, The SNP and the Wets coming together to order and then lose another referendum.
Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government
At the Brecon & Radnor by-election the LibDem candidate is accused of visiting a brewery just outside the constituency whereas the yellow peril retort that the Conservatives couldn't organise a piss up in said brewery.
Still .. (geddit ..) perhaps the Tories might end up drunk as a lord (hhmmm ... ) if they find their electoral pint glasses more than half full in the early hours of 2nd August.
http://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/article.cfm?id=110961&headline=Rivals claim Lib Dem doesn't know where she is after distillery visit&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2019
Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
If Johnson wants a GE, he’ll get it. It might be the only thing he ever gets as PM.
Bozoic, surely.
It's also not the case that there's insufficient time for an Election before Brexit day. One could be called next week or early September. I'm not suggesting it will be, simply that there would be time.
Finally, the reason that commentators were so interested (excited) this week is because the vote 1) shut off a possible Boris route to No Deal and 2) sent a clear message of intent: a shot across the Johnson bow.
I usually admire David Herdson's pieces. This isn't his strongest. But then, to be fair, these are febrile times. The sands shift daily and navigating a path across them is for soothsayers as much as geographers.
* Emphasize the Tory splits and make it harder for moderate Tories to vote for Boris
* Avoid taking all the blame for the delay. Although we've seen the limits of triangulation, Corbyn has tried hard to avoid burning bridges with Labour Leavers, and although some of them will inevitably be lost by the whole operation of asking for an extension, better to put a Tory face on it than a Labour one
* Stay in control of the Labour Party. With most of his MPs doubtless preferring the caretaker, and the membership being less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were, why take the risk that they'll run away with the ball?
So what's your point?
Will Boris actually do it? He probably should but I doubt it. He's too wrapped in his own Churchillian cloak of destiny to see that it might be his best, and possibly only, route to Brexit. And having seen Theresa May stuff up in 2017, who can blame him really?
Mrs May would advise the Queen that Larry the cat should be sent for to kiss paws with her majesty and become the purrrrrrr-fect Prime Minister.
The many LAB MPs who hate Corbyn wouldn't necessarily follow a move that could put him into Number 10.
The only party that would back it wholeheartedly would be the LDs and there are only 12 of them
Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.
Unforced error by the Lib Dem’s at a time when they really ought to be footsure.
That person is appointed PM, the 14 day clock continues to run down. If this person fails to pass a confidence motion in that time, we have a GE.
Her majesty's government is always in existence, there is always a PM, no interregnums
And not that it will happen, but theoretically May could effectively force an election if the Tories wanted Johnson as PM?
Here’s what David actually said:
although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...
IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.
A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
Section 2 simply requires an election if no vote of confidence is passed within the 14 days. The Act does not prevent a succession of people attempting to form a government and trying to secure such a motion within that period (so the statement above that if the new PM fails there is then an election isn't based on the legislation).
It’s like a Nat posting “Westminster” when they mean “ English B’stards”
If Corbyn does agree to a GE the timing of which guarantees no deal, without asking for an extension first then him and the Labour party would significantly move up the responsibility/blame list.
Who is picking the new cutains for No 10?
An MP on Monday,
Elected on Tuesday,
PM on Wednesday,
PMQs on Thursday,
VoNC'd on Friday,
Resigned on Saturday,
Forgotten on Sunday,
That was the end,
Of Boris or Solomon Grundy.
We are where we are because:
1) the electorate voted to leave
2) the Commons voted to endorse that result
3) May negotiated poorly and had appalling rhetoric
4) the Commons voted repeatedly against her deal
You can't simply wish away the fact that the majority of Conservative MPs backed leaving with a deal and a majority of all other MPs opposed it. If we're leaving and a deal is ruled out, that means leaving with no deal.
If MPs had a majority for an alternative (say, a referendum or straight revocation) that would be something. But opposing everything when the legal default is leaving without a deal is to take actions that lead to no deal.
Labour MPs had a say on deal or no deal. And they backed no deal.
The question is whether the Labour party officially - or a large bulk of Labour MPs unofficially - would settle for some Clarke/Cable/Benn type figure presiding over the GONU for a couple of weeks while this is done. If there's a GE at the end of it, they just might. Remember the alternatives are a no deal exit and the great Bozo remaining in power.
I would guess if a VONC passes and:
there is time to stop no deal afterwards - election 90% corbyn 2% others 8%
there would need to be a temp govt to stop no deal - election 25% corbyn 20%, others 55%
The timing is key and might be why people are coming up with conflicting answers.
I do understand your despair- trying to convince Scotland to vote to ditch the pound for the Euro will be an impossible task - especially with the backdrop of Salmond on trial for nefarious acts.
In "normal" circumstances an election would be more likely than a temporary GONU. But in the unusual circumstances of the catastrophe of a no deal crashout only days away, it isn't unreasonable to uprate the probabilities of what would otherwise be unlikely options.
Aren't facts tiresome? So is democracy sometimes.
When MPs voted to enact the referendum result, they lied. Most had no intention of doing so, but didn't dare come out and say it at the time. Their tactic was delay, delay, delay, and to keep fighting the referendum campaign.
The LDs, being superior beings, didn't bother with any fig leaves.
At heart, many Remainers know that, as do most Leavers. That's why faith in MPs is at historic lows, and likely to remain so.
But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.
They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/20/labour-pledges-to-push-councils-into-taking-back-local-services
Johnson is electoral cyanide in Scotland.
The backdrop of a no deal Brexit under a Johnson government make another Indyref considerably more likely. Salmond is irrelevant to that.
Thank you too David for a truly excellent piece, even if (perhaps because) not everyone agrees or follows your logic. Thanks too for the many excellent responses. They illustrate why reading PB is as good as if not better than reading even the quality press on the subject.
In short, I get the picture up to and including the VONC. In fact this is what I expect to happen. And I expect it to pass, because ND is the only alternative at that point and there aren't enough nutters in the house to take us into that except by accident (although such an accident remains an ever-present possibility.)
So what next? Here I am really not sure, and perhaps the reason is relly that the anwer depends on timing and other factors (which might include public opinion, Macron, Boris himself and so on.)
So maybe we take it one step at a time.....and very carefully?
But ultimately it's up to Bozo alone.
Lying is perhaps too strong a word but MPs were certainly less than honest with the public about the consequences of the referendum outcome and the alternative ways forward it implied. Otoh, it is certainly true that we would be out by now if Leavers had not bolloxed it up.
They can't blame that on Remainers, no matter how 'diehard'.
Mind you, the way that Westminster (or 'English B’stards' as Harry would prefer) are fucking Brexit up, sticking with them might be the best bet for continuing EU membership.
It ends … "Your baby wants to catch the moon. She is so funny; she calls Ganesh Ganush. Mother, your baby is silly! She is so absurdly childish!"
No need to waste democracy on them.
So are you suggesting there's a 55% chance Corbyn would back someone else over himself? Or a 55% chance that facing an election hundreds of MPs would abandon their parties?
I'd think both are more like 0.5% chances.
I'd say if there would need to be a temporary government to stop no deal:
Corbyn 95% [surely MPs did the maths before passing the VONC]
Election and No Deal during the election: 4% [oops!]
Others 1%
There isn't really any precedent, so what happens during that 14-day period will be up to discussion between the party leaders and the views of HMQ (in practice the trio of officials who advise her in such circumstances).
I'd expect them to put securing some certainty and stability (at least temporarily) as the priority (one can imagine the state the markets would be in), hence there will be a lot of pressure on MPs to identify a potential new PM and tolerance for several "goes" at forming a government within the 14 days.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/gordon-brown-save-britain-scotland