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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average

After a big week politically and some generally better ratings the Tories have closed the gap by 1.4% in the latest PB weekly average. We have been producing this weekly since the start of the year to help us better follow trends from the five times a weeky YouGov polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The trend is your friend ....
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    edited March 2014
    Whilst watching England Italy in our Real pub I had a new gastronomic experience. A pork pie and pickle bap - Two or three very thin slices of pork pie, a dollop of branston in a soft roll.

    A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.
  • Icarus said:

    Whilst watching England Italy in our Real pub I had a new gastronomic experience. A pork pie and pickle bap - Two or three very thin slices of pork pie, a dollop of branston in a soft roll.

    A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.

    Did it include the pie-crust? And how many pints had you had before deciding to tackle it?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Icarus said:

    Whilst watching England Italy in our Real pub I had a new gastronomic experience. A pork pie and pickle bap - Two or three very thin slices of pork pie, a dollop of branston in a soft roll.

    A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.

    I regret to advise you that following your confession and the adoption of PB's new healthy eating rules you will be suspended for seven days and placed in special measures for premeditated obesity.

    A repeat offence will force the PB Committee for Calorific Control to expel you permanently to the Scottish YES boot camp where a forced diet of bitter denial, dodgy stats and humourless abuse will be served until you are re-educated as a mindless unthinking moron - sad examples of whom we see all too regularly from PB SNP posters.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sixyearold-schoolboy-suspended-for-having-mini-cheddars-in-his-lunchbox-has-now-been-expelled-9109722.html


  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.

    It may seem surprising that so many Scots still support independence after being told, day after day, in the Scottish press that mortgages will rise, pensions fall apart, food prices rise, the banks will leave, the oil will run out and debt levels will soar as Scotland becomes a basket case thrown out of the European Union. Short of threatening to kill the first born, there's not much more stick that the UK can apply. So, the ­thinking is now moving to carrot.

    ... it was Lord Home who, in February 1979, called on Scots to vote No to Labour's proposed Scottish Assembly, because the Tories would bring in something better.

    Of course, nothing of the kind happened, despite the resignation of Malcolm Rifkind. The Tory PM, Margaret Thatcher, kicked the issue into the long heather by saying that the various parties "could not reach a consensus" on any future devolution. It should be noted that, on Friday, David Cameron did not say that a No vote "will" lead to more powers, only that it "can", which somehow escaped the attention of the BBC reporters.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    edited March 2014
    Yes, IA, of course the crust was on or it wouldn't have been a pie! Two pints of Bass, lasted the game.

    Has been a good few weeks gastronomically - My wife's retirement present from her primary school was a night plus menu exceptional at the Waterside in Bray. Good old fashioned food - foie, lobster etc. We had to pay for the drinks which was more than would normally spend on meal.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081


    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Icarus said:

    Yes, IA, of course the crust was on or it wouldn't have been a pie! Two pints of Bass, lasted the game.

    Has been a good few weeks gastronomically - My wife's retirement present from her primary school was a night plus menu exceptional at the Waterside in Bray. Good old fashioned food - foie, lobster etc. We had to pay for the drinks which was more than would normally spend on meal.

    A very happy retirement to Mrs Icky.

    Is she planning to spend more time with your "winning here" placards ??

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....

    I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.

    As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    If look at the report of the poll in the Record not sure the facts justify the headline as support for the Noes has risen by just as much:

    "A major new poll shows 39 per cent of Scots are planning to vote Yes on September 18 compared with 48 per cent who will vote No.".......

    "A similar poll for Survation last month found support for Yes was 38 per cent and No 47 per cent – meaning both side have gone up by one per cent."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....
    I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.

    As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.



    Not quite old Swede .... might I advise you and the rest of the SNP vegetables that you've as much hope of any trend ending up with a YES overall victory as TV viewers have of seeing a genuine smile from Sebastian Vettel this morning.

    Zilcho.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....
    I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.

    As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.

    Not quite old Swede .... might I advise you and the rest of the SNP vegetables that you've as much hope of any trend ending up with a YES overall victory as TV viewers have of seeing a genuine smile from Sebastian Vettel this morning.

    Zilcho.



    Jack, you get all excited over a miniscule Lab -> Con swing in last week's YouGovs, and yet criticise another poster for merely pointing out that there is also a No -> Yes swing going on.

    You cannot have your cake and eat it.

    Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
    Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    edited March 2014
    Icarus said:

    Whilst watching England Italy in our Real pub I had a new gastronomic experience. A pork pie and pickle bap - Two or three very thin slices of pork pie, a dollop of branston in a soft roll.

    A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.

    Sounds interesting. A little of what you fancy ..........
    I had an omelette baguette in Spain once; lasted me all day!

    Fortunately I’m not confined to drinking the products of the big brewers. There’s a small independent brewer in our little town which produces an excellent range of beers and often provides the guest beer in the pub I prefer.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Icarus said:

    If look at the report of the poll in the Record not sure the facts justify the headline as support for the Noes has risen by just as much:

    "A major new poll shows 39 per cent of Scots are planning to vote Yes on September 18 compared with 48 per cent who will vote No.".......

    "A similar poll for Survation last month found support for Yes was 38 per cent and No 47 per cent – meaning both side have gone up by one per cent."

    Survation No lead in fieldwork 29–31 Jan = 20 points.

    Survation No lead in fieldwork 6-7 Mar = 9 points.

    Thanks George Osborne!


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Re: Today's YouGov

    The 2010 LD split is atypical of recent results.

    Split is: LAB:41; LD 31; Cons 11; UKIP 10

    The split on Friday (Lab lead 5) was:
    Lab: 33; LD 38; Cons: 10; UKIP 9
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Icarus said:

    If look at the report of the poll in the Record not sure the facts justify the headline as support for the Noes has risen by just as much:

    "A major new poll shows 39 per cent of Scots are planning to vote Yes on September 18 compared with 48 per cent who will vote No.".......

    "A similar poll for Survation last month found support for Yes was 38 per cent and No 47 per cent – meaning both side have gone up by one per cent."

    Survation No lead in fieldwork 29–31 Jan = 20 points.

    Survation No lead in fieldwork 6-7 Mar = 9 points.

    Thanks George Osborne!


    Crossover imminent!! Squirrel battalions on standby.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....
    I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.

    As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.

    Not quite old Swede .... might I advise you and the rest of the SNP vegetables that you've as much hope of any trend ending up with a YES overall victory as TV viewers have of seeing a genuine smile from Sebastian Vettel this morning.

    Zilcho.

    Jack, you get all excited over a miniscule Lab -> Con swing in last week's YouGovs, and yet criticise another poster for merely pointing out that there is also a No -> Yes swing going on.

    You cannot have your cake and eat it.

    Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
    Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)


    Let me advise you, for the want of doubt, that it takes a wee bit more than poll movements to get this fellow "all excited".

    Whereas you seem to be unable to contain yourself from the dubious pleasures of a tiny movement in one poll that is so vanishingly small that Ronnie Corbett would make a whole comedy routine out of it.

    Time for something far more substantive than SNP pipe dreams .... my very full and far from small breakfast.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    Latest from You Gov:

    "Before you start the survey, we need to cover some Terms and Conditions. The original spirit of the CoProducer project was this: you as panellists help us make the movie, and you as panellists therefore share in the profits of the movie.

    You will be eligible for a share of 35% of the profits, provided you adhere to the two key terms and conditions of eligibility, as set out below:

    Profits is defined as the YouGov Producer's Net Profit share, i.e. the share of profits remaining after the payment of all entitled third parties.
    To participate in, and be eligible for a share of profits from, the CoProducer project, every panellist must complete no less than 50% of YouGov surveys to which you are invited between the date of completing this survey and the final CoProducer survey, which we anticipate sending towards the end of the editing process (in approximately 12 months). The CoProducer project is a new way of making movies: harnessing thousands of opinions from panellists to decide how a story is told. YouGov is financing this project because it believes this methodology can transform the movie industry. A failure to complete 50% of YouGov surveys to which you are invited will lead to you losing any entitlement to a share in the profits of the CoProducer project."

    Is this the most bonkers idea you have ever seen?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Surely that is a cruel and unusual punishment even for the worst salad dodger.

    There should be no such corrective policy for aficianados of the culinary delights of the bucolic Leicestershire market town of Melton Mowbray.

    Myself I find the Pork pie is best accompanied by mango chutney, wholegrain mustard and baked beans served cold. Wash it down with a pint of Oakham ales Citra.

    Fortified as such, a little light sport such as a bottle kicking* is much preferrable to listening to Scottish yes surgers.

    * Bottle kicking is proper football medival style: http://visitbritainnordic.wordpress.com/2010/03/25/quirky-event-of-the-week-bottle-kicking-and-hare-pie-scramble/

    JackW said:

    Icarus said:

    Whilst watching England Italy in our Real pub I had a new gastronomic experience. A pork pie and pickle bap - Two or three very thin slices of pork pie, a dollop of branston in a soft roll.

    A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.

    I regret to advise you that following your confession and the adoption of PB's new healthy eating rules you will be suspended for seven days and placed in special measures for premeditated obesity.

    A repeat offence will force the PB Committee for Calorific Control to expel you permanently to the Scottish YES boot camp where a forced diet of bitter denial, dodgy stats and humourless abuse will be served until you are re-educated as a mindless unthinking moron - sad examples of whom we see all too regularly from PB SNP posters.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sixyearold-schoolboy-suspended-for-having-mini-cheddars-in-his-lunchbox-has-now-been-expelled-9109722.html


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited March 2014
    The only thing I take from the Scottish polling is that No is grinding ever closer to 50+% of all voters. Until that starts reversing, this is no contest.....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Financier said:

    Re: Today's YouGov

    The 2010 LD split is atypical of recent results.

    Split is: LAB:41; LD 31; Cons 11; UKIP 10

    The split on Friday (Lab lead 5) was:
    Lab: 33; LD 38; Cons: 10; UKIP 9

    Yes, I noticed that too and expect it to revert. But equally some of the other subsamples are atypically weak for Labour (e.g. a lead of only 4 among young voters). Pollsters don't claim to balance the subsamples by past voting, only to get the overall picture right.

    The secondaries aren't actually very exciting - the sample takes a more jaundiced view of all parties, and coalition, the leaders etc. than the last sample. They think Tories best at handling the economy in general (38-28), Labour best at keeping inflation down (32-27) and increasing employment (33-29) - the most notable thing about all the numbers being that they are all low and it's mainly supporters of a party who think they're any good.

    I do think that the Tories have caught up a bit even though this poll doesn't show it - it's not that Labour's share is dropping but there is a trickle back from UKIP to Con. The real lead is probably around 5, and if you measure current certainty to vote (which IMO isn't a reliable indicator in marginals) around 3-4. UKIP need some positive publicity to regain momentum, the best shot at which is probably a good Euros showing.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The trend is your friend ....

    Indeed.
    ... The support for Yes has risen during February. The latest Survation poll in the Daily Record suggested that there need only be a 5% swing for Yes to prevail. I don't believe it is as close as this, but there are worried brows in Whitehall. The Unionists threw everything at Fearful February, yet the polls did not move in the right direction.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/more-powers-for-holyrood-dont-believe-the-hype.23699081
    Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....

    Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.

    Moving on ....
    I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.

    As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.

    Not quite old Swede .... might I advise you and the rest of the SNP vegetables that you've as much hope of any trend ending up with a YES overall victory as TV viewers have of seeing a genuine smile from Sebastian Vettel this morning.

    Zilcho.

    Jack, you get all excited over a miniscule Lab -> Con swing in last week's YouGovs, and yet criticise another poster for merely pointing out that there is also a No -> Yes swing going on.

    You cannot have your cake and eat it.

    Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
    Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)



    The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn. It's the PB golden rule.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    More impotency from Wales Labour

    Welsh men have chalked up almost half a million prescriptions from GPs for erection-boosting drugs in just two years, we can reveal.

    Men needing a chemical boost to help with their love making were handed 444,423 scripts for erectile dysfunction during 2012 and 2013.

    The massive haul of anti-impotency pills is the equivalent of one prescription for every three men aged over 18 registered with GPs, according to figures provided by the nation’s health boards.

    www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/gps-wales-hand-out-half-6837583
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    I think the Scots have greater problem - judging by their performance yesterday - a real hoggs breakfast!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    On thread - agreed. Not that, after this YouGov poll, I am not sorely tempted to repost some of the more hyperbolic stuff from our Conservative supporting colleagues from this week, which I am, but I won't. Other than to say Moniker strangely refused my offer of a bet after he predicted Labour wound struggle to reach 30% in the election.

    A good week for the Tories last week, but are Ukip now bouncing back? To early to say, Labour will be hoping so.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Ozzy and Balls on Andrew Marr from 9am.

    Should be fun.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?

    Which airline are you flying - IFE can vary considerably!

    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity, Despicable Me 2 and Captain Phillips from the ones I've seen - and of the ones I'd like to see, Dallas Buyers Club, 12 Years a Slave and Inside Llewyn Davis.

    http://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/information/entertainment/in-flight-entertainment?from=LGW,LHR&to=DFW&class=all&month=this&flightno=

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?

    Hope you aren't flying United on the 767-300, those are just awful (no interactive entertainment for a start). If you aren't, there usually is a pretty wide selection of movies to choose from. I remember watching Iron Man 3 on a previous transatlantic trip, and they conveniently cut out an entire scene based around Air Force One crashing into the sea!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited March 2014


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    BobaFett said:

    Ozzy and Balls on Andrew Marr from 9am.

    Should be fun.

    Alien vs Predator
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?

    I was on a flight to Chicago yesterday and watched Gravity, which was very enjoyable. The Liam Nielson film abour air marshalls is also very good (but I am a fan of his) - they may not have it on the selection though...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    It is stunning visually - but since its no longer in the cinema, its an 8 inch screen or your TV!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    It is stunning visually - but since its no longer in the cinema, its an 8 inch screen or your TV!

    Well, I'd rather watch it on BluRay than on the aircraft screen. Even the ones in first class are pretty crappy in terms of resolution (although bigger).
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ozzie getting knifed on the 40% tax in the Mail today.

    From the gist of the article, he has been knifed from behind....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.
  • Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    Have you asked Karen Buck about Crossrail-2? She managed to survive...

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    RobD said:


    If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity,

    I had thought about watching that, but I was too depressed about watching it on an ~8 inch screen when it is supposed to be a visual spectacle.
    It is stunning visually - but since its no longer in the cinema, its an 8 inch screen or your TV!

    Well, I'd rather watch it on BluRay than on the aircraft screen. Even the ones in first class are pretty crappy in terms of resolution (although bigger).
    They also cut/shorten films on flights, and as you say the screens are lousy.

    I have given up and read instead !
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    The Lego Movie is the obvious choice, where else can you watch it without an 8 year old - though Captain Phillips, and Dallas Buyer's Club also good.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Andrew Marr a lot tougher this morning - getting into quite a scrap with Eck.......'having talked to Mr Barosso, which I gather you haven't.....'
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov asked some questions about the state of the economy and compares the answers with those of December 5-6.

    Thinking about the current state of the economy, which
    of the following best reflects your view?

    The economy is still getting worse: 14 (-8)
    The economy has stopped getting worse, but there are no
    signs of any recovery yet: 32 (+3)
    The economy is in a bad way, but is starting to show signs
    of recovery: 38 (+2)
    The economy is improving and on the way to full recovery: 11(+4)
    DK: 6(-1)

    Thinking about the government's economic policies,
    which of the following best reflects your view? (Compared to June 27-28)

    The government should stick to its current strategy of
    reducing the deficit, even if this means growth remains
    slow:38(+3)
    The government should change its strategy to concentrate
    on growth, even if this means the deficit stays longer: 30(-9)
    Neither : 10(0)
    Not Sure: 22 (+6)

    In both polls it is only the Labour VI who says economy is getting worse, there is no recovery and should concentrate on growth and keep the deficit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Eck bullying the stroke victim - not a good look..
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2014

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning all :)

    Having done the flight to New Zealand, I can recommend a mix of activities including puzzles and games as well as films and TV. I enjoy long-haul flying but from the reasonable sanctuary of Premium Economy (which Air NZ does very well).

    On other matters, as far as the Budget is concerned, I do think the 40% threshold would seem to be the "pressure area" this year. Clearly, it's been hugely beneficial for bringing in additional tax revenue over the past few years so I can understand why any Chancellor would want to keep it but the political advantage of raising the threshold above inflation seems undeniable.

    I see no reason to tinker with tax rates but moving the threshold and raising personal allowances would be a big step for millions of tax payers. I also recognise the argument for changes to NI and that's clearly another option.

    The question for this year and next is whether Osborne will be a "political" Chancellor and frame Budget strategy around winning votes or an "economic" Chancellor where the general health of the economy and the sustaining of the recovery is paramount even if that means eschewing some of the ideas that would be politically more favourable in the short term.

    It's also clear that pressure is building for a drastic post-election round of public expenditure reductions - it will be interesting to see if Osborne is prepared to say what kind of cuts he would wish to make were he to be Chancellor of a Conservative majority Government and conversely what Ed Balls would do were he in the same position in a Labour Government,
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?

    American Hustle if it's on the VoD selection. Saving Mr Banks is alright as well. If you're flying BA the last time I went to Tokyo they had full seasons of TV series on the flight, so you could even get stuck into that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    The old you will already have charge of 7% and control of airguns, that will change a lot of minds.
    Meanwhile we have this reality bollocks from Theresa may to the 20 or 30 old buffers attending the Tory conference
    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.

    So do you prefer fantasy or reality, the day from Westminster are great recruiting sergeants for YES
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    TGOHF said:

    Eck bullying the stroke victim - not a good look..

    I thought the 'stroke victim' back on form and more than held his own!

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Andrew Marr a lot tougher this morning - getting into quite a scrap with Eck.......'having talked to Mr Barosso, which I gather you haven't.....'

    LOL, Marr is a jessie , he could not do tough against anyone. He just grovelled to Barosso and le thim spout absolute garbage.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    Marr has skin in the game on this one as a Scots born Londoner. In the event that the Scots gain independence the future will not be as bright for people like him who attempt to break into English journalism (although it is unlikely that he personally will suffer). Keeping the Union together is I would have thought a subject much closer to his heart than other subjects he has to ask questions about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Watch: Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Captain Philips, Despicable Me 2

    Avoid: Gravity (on an aircraft screen - heresy! Do it the justice of a proper screening, preferably at an Imax), Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue Jasmine (personal antipathy - I know many people loved it but I was intensely annoyed by the supporting cast to Ms Blanchett)

    People may recall that I praised the two performances of Matt McConaughey and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club as Oscar-worthy when I saw this on the BAFTA screener at the end of last year. A judgment that looked a little shaky when the parochial bastards at BAFTA didn't think either performance worthy of even a NOMINATION. Jeez..... Thankfully their respective Oscar wins allowed me to shove two fingers up at BAFTA.

    BTW, anyone who has not yet caught up with "True Detective" is missing out on arguably the finest writing yet in a TV series. Outstanding.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited March 2014

    Andrew Marr a lot tougher this morning - getting into quite a scrap with Eck.......'having talked to Mr Barosso, which I gather you haven't.....'

    Each time he brings up 'bluff and bluster' I can't help but think of the mythical legal advice, surely that is bluff and bluster in extremis. ;-)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    It is fascinating to see the difference between how the Scottish respondents in the ComRes poll would vote at Westminster and Euro elections. Remember, these are exactly the same people giving dramatically different responses to how they will vote for different legislatures.

    Westminster VI

    SNP 35%
    Lab 32%
    Con 20%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%
    UKIP 3%

    Euro VI
    (with +/- change compared to Westminster VI)

    SNP 39% (+4)
    Lab 19% (-13)
    Con 13% (-7)
    LD 12% (+5)
    Grn 8% (+5)
    UKIP 6% (+3)

    This indicates that the SNP, SLD, SGP and SUKIP are going to have a relatively good June, whereas SLab could be heading for a nightmare in June. SCons will likely be a shrug of the shoulders. As usual.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
    Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.

    As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TGOHF said:

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
    Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.

    As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
    Labour used grade inflation instead of actually pushing up standards.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    Andrew Marr a lot tougher this morning - getting into quite a scrap with Eck.......'having talked to Mr Barosso, which I gather you haven't.....'

    He just grovelled to Barosso and le thim spout absolute garbage.
    A courtesy he did not extend to Eck.....

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Does Ozzy understand his own policy? My understanding is that there is a mechanism so those paying the Higher Rate can't benefit from the increase in the PA.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Why are UKIP doing so well in the Midlands and the South West? Have the Tories been particularly weak in those areas recently?

    ComRes - Euro VI

    English Midlands : 39%
    Wales & South-west of England : 36%
    North of England : 31%
    South-east of England : 29%
    Scotland : 6%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Comments on Gove from supporters basically say hooray, he's standing up to teachers so must be right. I'm not discussing here whether he's right or not, but in general it's not obvious that disagreeing with most professionals is *by definition* right, though it's in that double-edged "not afraid to take unpopular decisions" category. Not everything that is unpopular is a good idea.

    On a less contentious note, Divergent [film coming out this week, aimed at the Hunger Games market] sounds rather interesting. Has anyone read the book?

    http://veronicarothbooks.blogspot.co.uk/p/books.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    BobaFett said:

    Does Ozzy understand his own policy? My understanding is that there is a mechanism so those paying the Higher Rate can't benefit from the increase in the PA.

    I believe it is a taper, so people at ~£70k, £80k would still get a (tiny) tax cut.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
    Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.

    As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
    You are missing the point. Granted that Gove wants to improve education, and that teachers have a vested interest in this, why has Gove made no attempt to carry the teachers with him?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    BobaFett said:

    Does Ozzy understand his own policy? My understanding is that there is a mechanism so those paying the Higher Rate can't benefit from the increase in the PA.

    tsk rich Londoners gripe about tax bills again
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    LOL, yes I can just see those pansies in London spending billions putting up barbed wire and stopping everybody at the border, make themselves a joke throughout the world. We will be perfectly happy to let people cross freely unlike those pathetic cretins in Westminster.
    If you are so thick that you believe they are sensible in promoting so stupid a threat then you really are deluded.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Andrew Marr a lot tougher this morning - getting into quite a scrap with Eck.......'having talked to Mr Barosso, which I gather you haven't.....'

    He just grovelled to Barosso and le thim spout absolute garbage.
    A courtesy he did not extend to Eck.....

    He is a toom tabard what do you expect , he is your typical London Scot grovelling to keep himself in his position. A patsy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2014
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    pansies
    pathetic cretins
    thick
    stupid
    deluded.
    Such a charmer!

    Of course, air traffic would be simple to switch to international, and as there will no longer be a service requirement to run through trains to Scotland, train passengers can be checked when they change trains.....

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov on Tax Levels

    83% support: Increasing the personal allowance (the amount people earn before paying tax) from £10,000 to £10,500: no surprise there!

    55% support:Increasing the amount people can earn before paying
    the 40p rate of tax from its current level of about £42,000: All parties are in favour of this - including 50% of Labour VI

    Abolishing the 45p rate of tax on earnings over £150,000, so that the top rate of tax is 40p: opposed by all parties by 64 to 23.

    Increasing the 45p rate of tax on earnings over £150,000 to 50p.
    Supported by 58 to 31 (Cons oppose).

    Introducing a new tax on homes worth more than £2million, with people paying an annual tax of 1% of the value of their home over £2 million?

    Supported by 61 to 27 but when the £1m figure is used, support falls to 50% with only Labour in favour.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    pansies
    pathetic cretins
    thick
    stupid
    deluded.
    Such a charmer!

    Of course, air traffic would be simple to switch to international, and as there will no longer be a service requirement to run through trains to Scotland, train passengers can be checked when they change trains.....

    @CarlottaVance

    You have missed malcolmg's sense of self-deprecating humour!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Flying down to London for the Supreme Court today. Don't think inflight entertainment is going to be a major issue!

    In respect of the polling Labour were partly saved by the Yougov yesterday which had them back at 40%. Looking at the other polling in the week by other companies this seems somewhat unlikely and it seems Labour are nearer the 35%. This is the bottom end of the band that they have been in for the best part of 2 years and it would be significant if they fell below it.

    My guess is that this will ultimately prove to be a steady as she goes and isn't she going well budget that will have little impact in the polls. If the tories' position is to improve it will need longer term trends to help them and the secondaries on the economy give some hope in this respect.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Why are UKIP doing so well in the Midlands and the South West? Have the Tories been particularly weak in those areas recently?

    ComRes - Euro VI

    English Midlands : 39%
    Wales & South-west of England : 36%
    North of England : 31%
    South-east of England : 29%
    Scotland : 6%

    Stuart:

    The English Midlands have been exposed to some of the more drastic aspects of culture change through immigration.

    The South-West has always been very independent-minded and resent any interference - especially from Europe; and Cornwall in particular resents Spanish fishermen ever since Ted Heath gave away the UK's fishing rights and severely cut their fishing industry.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning.
    Nice day.
    Sun shining in London.
    .........and a good cartoon from MAT

    Matt on this morning's sunshine... http://t.co/PNOv4jhpXS pic.twitter.com/85jACRiw8d

    — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) March 16, 2014
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Financier said:


    Increasing the 45p rate of tax on earnings over £150,000 to 50p.
    Supported by 58 to 31 (Cons oppose).

    Introducing a new tax on homes worth more than £2million, with people paying an annual tax of 1% of the value of their home over £2 million?

    Supported by 61 to 27 but when the £1m figure is used, support falls to 50% with only Labour in favour.

    I wonder how people would poll if asked "Would you support a tax regime being put in place that attracted 100,000 very wealthy high rate taxpayers people into the UK if it meant spending on the NHS could rise by 10%?"

    I suspect the politics of envy would mean we would vote to show the rich the door. But be nice to have it confirmed.

    Or alternatively, have some politician to stand up and shout that they really love the idea of more rich people coming here. Rich people pay for the NHS. See what abuse they copped...and from whom.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Three points:

    1. It would be interesting to see the YG weekly averages without the Sunday one. That often seems to throw in results that look very different to the other ones.
    2. When doing poll averages, would it not be a good idea to average out phone polls and online polls separately?
    3. As this is budget week and the gap has been narrow in most of the polls, there is a very good chance we will see at least one in the next seven days that puts the Tories ahead. Osborne is bound to throw out at a few populist, eye-catching measures after all. I would not want to be on welfare after this Wednesday, that's for sure.

    And how about this:

    Cabinet ministers have been quietly approving hefty pay rises for some of their own special advisers while freezing or imposing sub-inflation increases on the pay of millions of other civil servants and public sector workers, official figures show.
    The rises – which in the case of one special adviser at Iain Duncan Smith's Department for Work and Pensions was 36% last year – were condemned as outrageous last night by civil service unions and the Labour party.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/16/civil-service-unions-attack-salaries-cabinet-advisers

    We're all in it together ...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    TGOHF said:

    Striking YouGov proof of a past column by Mike where he claimed that Gove was toxic among teachers (there are 438,000):

    In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
    Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.

    Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?

    The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"

    To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.

    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
    Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.

    As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
    You are missing the point. Granted that Gove wants to improve education, and that teachers have a vested interest in this, why has Gove made no attempt to carry the teachers with him?

    Gove has been captured by vested interests - people and organisations who want to run academies and free schools for profit. Teachers are a huge expense for those seeking to do that.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    "An economic policy made in the south east of England, by the south east of England and for the south east of England was damaging Scottish business. In that, the pound sterling is a millstone round Scotland's neck."
    Alex Salmond, economist, politician, and clown.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Financier said:

    Why are UKIP doing so well in the Midlands and the South West? Have the Tories been particularly weak in those areas recently?

    ComRes - Euro VI

    English Midlands : 39%
    Wales & South-west of England : 36%
    North of England : 31%
    South-east of England : 29%
    Scotland : 6%

    Stuart:

    The English Midlands have been exposed to some of the more drastic aspects of culture change through immigration.

    The South-West has always been very independent-minded and resent any interference - especially from Europe; and Cornwall in particular resents Spanish fishermen ever since Ted Heath gave away the UK's fishing rights and severely cut their fishing industry.

    I suspect it is more East Midlands than West Midlands.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    One thing that I only picked up from the ST today was the massive swing in North Korea. Apparently 0.03% did not vote for Kim Jong-un. His father won 99.98% of the vote. The march to democracy and pluralism is clearly relentless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    For anybody not wearing their rose tinted unionist Westminster specs, it was just a little bit different.
    However unlike you I do not need to try and prove I have the biggest willie.
    Marr is known for his powderpuff interviews of unionists so no surprise he is rude to Alex, who put him and his pathetic posturing about Barosso firmly in his place
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    More on Education and Teachers

    "A mother who complained about her 14-year-old daughter studying a play containing 400 swear words has suffered a torrent of foul-mouthed abuse – from teachers.

    Gerardine Stockford expressed dismay on Mumsnet after finding her daughter Anna was studying the gritty drama Mogadishu – which contains 218 uses of the F-word and ten of the C-word – as part of her GCSE drama course.........

    But one Mumsnet user, who claimed to be a teacher, responded: ‘Censorship – that’s what you want. So you can impose your middle- England, white, middle-class values on a world that no longer exists.

    ‘As a teacher, I will say very bluntly how sick and f****** tired I am of parents like you who think they are experts on all f****** areas of the curriculum.’

    Another said: ‘This really, really p***** me off .  .  . I teach and have had half-***ed complaints from parents on occasion .  .  . What really boils my p*** is people having opinions about things they haven’t even read and certainly don’t understand.’"

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581883/Teachers-rants-mother-hit-four-letter-words-lessons-Complained-14-year-old-daughter-studying-play-containing-400-swear-words.html#ixzz2w7bwRUi4




  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    "An economic policy made in the south east of England, by the south east of England and for the south east of England was damaging Scottish business. In that, the pound sterling is a millstone round Scotland's neck."
    Alex Salmond, economist, politician, and clown.
    says a turnip
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    For anybody not wearing their rose tinted unionist Westminster specs, it was just a little bit different.
    However unlike you I do not need to try and prove I have the biggest willie.
    Marr is known for his powderpuff interviews of unionists so no surprise he is rude to Alex, who put him and his pathetic posturing about Barosso firmly in his place
    "And Scotland's interest involves joining the Euro sooner rather than later. For many years now, the pound sterling has been a millstone round Scotland's neck. Sterling is costing Scotland jobs and prosperity in manufacturing, agriculture and tourism."
    Alex Salmond
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Financier said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    pansies
    pathetic cretins
    thick
    stupid
    deluded.
    Such a charmer!

    Of course, air traffic would be simple to switch to international, and as there will no longer be a service requirement to run through trains to Scotland, train passengers can be checked when they change trains.....

    @CarlottaVance

    You have missed malcolmg's sense of self-deprecating humour!
    Carlotta would not see humour if it hit her in the face, too bitter and twisted and full of vitriol. Her hatred of Scotland means she has no sensiblity on comments, just bile and hatred.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    BobaFett said:

    Does Ozzy understand his own policy? My understanding is that there is a mechanism so those paying the Higher Rate can't benefit from the increase in the PA.

    tsk rich Londoners gripe about tax bills again
    How goes it Alan, all well with you I hope.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    pansies
    pathetic cretins
    thick
    stupid
    deluded.
    Such a charmer!

    Of course, air traffic would be simple to switch to international, and as there will no longer be a service requirement to run through trains to Scotland, train passengers can be checked when they change trains.....

    @CarlottaVance

    You have missed malcolmg's sense of self-deprecating humour!
    hit her in the face,
    too bitter and twisted
    full of vitriol.
    hatred of Scotland
    no sensiblity on comments,
    just bile and hatred.
    Got a mirror, dear?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2014
    So What? A Minister determined to do away with the vested interests and improve educational standards is not going to stay popular amongst the teaching profession. with those vested interests...

    You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.

    What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?

    Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.

    As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.

    You are missing the point. Granted that Gove wants to improve education, and that teachers have a vested interest in this, why has Gove made no attempt to carry the teachers with him?



    Gove has been captured by vested interests - people and organisations who want to run academies and free schools for profit. Teachers are a huge expense for those seeking to do that.


    Diane Abbot sent her child to a fee paying school because she was dissatisfied with the local state schools despite being opposed to private schools... There are lots of incidences of this especially within the Labour ranks.

    Free schools are a result of parents dissatisfaction with the local state school. Its no wonder, given how appalling some of them are.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    his pathetic posturing about Barosso
    Only one of them has actually spoken to Barosso though.....which one would that be?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Russia has now invaded ethnic Ukranian, mainland Ukraine:

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russian-troops-invade-kherson-oblast-ukrainians-declare-right-to-fight-back-339509.html

    Pretty predictable to those of us who weren't stupid enough to believe Russia was interested in the human rights of Russian speakers, but is just practicing imperialism using whatever excuses it can. Presumably the peaceniks and isolationists will just use an other set of excuses now, and will keep on doing so no matter what Russia does. The short termist thinking is unbelievable - this is what happens when you abandon the principle of territorial integrity for states that have done absolutely nothing wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF said:
    Yes that will encourage people. Vote NO and we guarantee you the lowest growth rate in all the UK , despite taking all your money and you having the highest GDP in the UK. Vote no for more Poverty.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    Ozzy and Balls on Andrew Marr from 9am.

    Should be fun.

    This is how it goes on PB with regards said interviews:

    The both of them could sit there for half an hour and say nothing and this is how the Hodges would post:

    Balls was crap
    Gideon master strategist
    Tory economic genius
    Brown/Balls/Brown/Balls/Brown/Balls
    Gideon outclassed Balls
    Plan A no Plan B - Tory economic ejaculation
    Yellow boxes a.o.t.s.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    Yes that will encourage people. Vote NO and we guarantee you the lowest growth rate in all the UK , despite taking all your money and you having the highest GDP in the UK. Vote no for more Poverty.

    Perhaps if the SNP hadn't been too feart to use their tax lowering powers the economy might be in better shape. Vote YES for more of the same forever...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    For our Separatist friends:

    The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com

    Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
    You do understand that border controls is something May would decide and not Salmond, don't you?

    Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....

    You are not all there, shock horror two well practiced liars keep up their pretence
    @faisalislam: So Alex salmond is likening not sharing the pound to russia annexing the Crimea...

    @iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.

    @jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr

    @iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins

    I take it you missed this car crash then?
    his pathetic posturing about Barosso
    Only one of them has actually spoken to Barosso though.....which one would that be?

    And what did Marr say other than Hello, if it had been Alex he may have asked him to explain how Scotland could be compared to Kosovo , how does he know the answer when no-one else does , it has never happened before and why he was talking out of his arse other than a quid pro quo for Cameron voting for him joining the NATO trough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    BobaFett said:

    Ozzy and Balls on Andrew Marr from 9am.

    Should be fun.

    this is how the Hodges would post:
    Really? Why not post some of these posts......
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello PBers. I'm on a plane to Texas tomorrow for 10 hours.

    What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?

    It's cliched, but both 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyer's Club are fantastic. Gravity and The Butler are both hugely overrated. Kings of Summer is a lesser known gem.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    BobaFett said:

    Ozzy and Balls on Andrew Marr from 9am.

    Should be fun.

    this is how the Hodges would post:
    Really? Why not post some of these posts......
    Don't worry you will be seeing them soon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    Yes that will encourage people. Vote NO and we guarantee you the lowest growth rate in all the UK , despite taking all your money and you having the highest GDP in the UK. Vote no for more Poverty.

    Perhaps if the SNP hadn't been too feart to use their tax lowering powers the economy might be in better shape. Vote YES for more of the same forever...
    Its funny....

    'Scottish Economy Doing Well' - thanks to the SNP government!

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scotland-is-14th-richest-country-in-the-world-say-snp.23668163

    'Scottish Economy Doing Badly': - thanks to the Union!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    malcolmg said:

    BobaFett said:

    Does Ozzy understand his own policy? My understanding is that there is a mechanism so those paying the Higher Rate can't benefit from the increase in the PA.

    tsk rich Londoners gripe about tax bills again
    How goes it Alan, all well with you I hope.
    all fine atm malc. I've been busy on a couple of projects so not around much of late.
This discussion has been closed.