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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    ComRes had UKIP ahead last year as well

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/27/comres-european-election-poll/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    But there's a trend developing in Westminster VI.

    3% lead here as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    That 35% figure is becoming a bit of a trend for Labour
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    There's a lot of discussion about the what and how of the missing flight. But very little about the why.

    Why would anyone commandeer a plane with a full complement of passengers and crew? The motive doesn't seem to be for a ransom. The plane wasn't crashed into a target. There is no sign so far that the plane crashed at all.

    The possibilities are all grim. The most ominous is that it now seems entirely possible that those commandeering the plane, crew and passengers have succeeded in securing it and them at an unknown location. This, it appears, may be only phase one of a plan. I doubt that phase two will be to our liking. It seems well organised.

    If the ascent to FL450 (45,000 feet) is accepted then whoever piloted the plane was not interested in its passengers (or cabin crew). That manoeuvre alone would have knocked out all outside the flight cabin with hypoxia, the drop down emergency masks being insufficient to supply the oxygen required in such conditions.

    Doubts though exist about whether the ascent to FL450 has been correctly measured and, if so, whether a B777 could sustain this height (and the subsequent descent) without damaging itself to the extent of preventing subsequent normal flight.

    But accepting the passenger knockout theory, then clues to the motive may lie in the contents of the hold or the re-usability of the plane after refitting and possible arming.

    The Malaysian authorities have not released a freight manifest nor commented publicly on what cargo was being carried. For as long as this silence persists, rumours will escalate.

    The land, strip, repaint and fit dirty bomb scenario is being widely discussed. Initially dismissed as being on the lunatic fringe of explanations, it is quickly gaining mainstream consideration. We must assume a successful North West flight path towards the 'stans for this theory to make sense though.

    The only other major theory being espoused is pilot suicide with ditching mid Indian Ocean to prevent recovery of black box etc.
    It would be, in a slightly sick way, quite exciting if WE NEVER FIND OUT what happened to Air Malaysia 370 (horrible for the relatives of course).

    It would become a modern day Marie Celeste. A mystery for the ages.
    In my advice to investors, I have marked all the following as a STRONG BUY:

    Radar equipment manufacturers, aviation thriller writers and Hollywood studios specialising in blockbusters.

    Time to revive and reposition Tom Knox?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    antifrank said:

    There's a lot of discussion about the what and how of the missing flight. But very little about the why.

    Why would anyone commandeer a plane with a full complement of passengers and crew? The motive doesn't seem to be for a ransom. The plane wasn't crashed into a target. There is no sign so far that the plane crashed at all.

    The possibilities are all grim. The most ominous is that it now seems entirely possible that those commandeering the plane, crew and passengers have succeeded in securing it and them at an unknown location. This, it appears, may be only phase one of a plan. I doubt that phase two will be to our liking. It seems well organised.

    It's probably something mundane but if it's not then i think the Chinese might want to keep their air defense on alert.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Can we have Westminster voting changes? Trends are perhaps more interesting than raw figures.

    To the person vilifying weather by comparing to astrological signs, we will see, we will see. Wisdom is proved right by her actions.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Has Mike got the Opinium figures wrong? I thought UKIP were on 16% in this latest poll, but Mike's chart shows 10%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That 35% figure is becoming a bit of a trend for Labour


    It won't hold. barring events labour will be dropping below 35% by the end of the year.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Further point on the missing plane. If this is part of a well-executed plan, it narrows the possible actors. The organisers must either be a sovereign state or have control of part of a sovereign state.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sorry, just had a few drinks.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:

    Further point on the missing plane. If this is part of a well-executed plan, it narrows the possible actors. The organisers must either be a sovereign state or have control of part of a sovereign state.

    .. with a full sized runway hidden out of sight of journalists and spy satellites. Seems implausible.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ComRes on UNS would give

    Lab 25 (+12)
    UKIP 24 (+11)
    Con 15 (-11)
    Green 2 (nc)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)
    LibDem 1 (-10)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    It does look as though Labour's previous norm of 7/8 point leads has shrunk to 4/5 points over the last few weeks.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I note @TheScreamingEagles cheating at the start of the thread .... again

    Tsk .... almost as bad as purloining Easter eggs from the offspring ....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    audreyanne said:

    Can we have Westminster voting changes? Trends are perhaps more interesting than raw figures.

    To the person vilifying weather by comparing to astrological signs, we will see, we will see. Wisdom is proved right by her actions.

    For ComRes

    Con 32% (0)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (0)
    UKIP 16% (+1)
    Other 8% (+1)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    "For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections"

    That'll be the "more evidence of UKIP decline" that the posh Alan Partridge was talking about on PB less than an hour ago.

    *chortle*

    "Nick Clegg gets his best approval ratings with Opinium for more than 2 years - a net minus 39"

    Rejoice! -39 Proof indeed that 'Elvis Bus Pass' Clegg isn't an amusingly toxic irrelevance.

    Maybe he should pick more fights with Gove since that's bound to help the lib dems in May.
    Oh, that's right, Gove's too busy picking fights with the incompetent fops.
    Trevor Seemann ‏@Trevorius 40m

    We all know there are too many Old Etonians in Cameron's Cabinet cabal. Ridiculous is Michael Gove feigning shock. #WannabeLeader
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Sorry, just had a few drinks.

    Were they spiked with LSD?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One thing we can say is that Peter Kellner is pretty good at predictions: he made a forecast about a year ago for the Euro elections of UKIP 25%, Lab 25%, Con 20% and this poll isn't far off that.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    UKIP surge;

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-affair-ukip-popularity-3246914
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Bunga Bunga or Ool la la? That is the question...
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    How come LD was on 18 in the last Euro poll in 2013?

    That looks very odd!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed Miliband = Mr 35%.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

    UKIP 30% (+3)
    Lab 28% (+5)
    Con 21% (0)
    Lib Dem 8% (-10)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Other 7% (0)

    UKIP polling 30% http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/15/ukip-leading-in-euro-elections-race/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter …

    So much for SeanT's UKIP decline!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited March 2014
    There's only one Leader of the Opposition not win the Euros held in a non General Election year.

    That was Neil Kinnock, will Ed join him in that stellar company?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Lab lead in latest GE poll for each pollster:

    Populus 1
    ICM 3
    MORI 3
    ComRes 3
    YouGov 5
    Opinium 5

    Average = 3.3
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    Further point on the missing plane. If this is part of a well-executed plan, it narrows the possible actors. The organisers must either be a sovereign state or have control of part of a sovereign state.

    .. with a full sized runway hidden out of sight of journalists and spy satellites. Seems implausible.

    Salt flats and a big shed would be all that is needed.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    AndyJS said:

    One thing we can say is that Peter Kellner is pretty good at predictions: he made a forecast about a year ago for the Euro elections of UKIP 25%, Lab 25%, Con 20% and this poll isn't far off that.

    Peter Kellner has long expected UKIP to come first in the Euros.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    MikeK said:

    The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

    UKIP 30% (+3)
    Lab 28% (+5)
    Con 21% (0)
    Lib Dem 8% (-10)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Other 7% (0)

    The incompetent fop's Cast Iron Immigration Pledge blowing up in his face was always going to have an effect. Looks like we have some evidence of it already and that's before the campaigning truly starts in earnest. I guarantee you Farage will go huge on Cammie's Cast Iron immigration Pledge come the debates.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A large pinch of salt required. We know Euro turnout is highest in the council areas also voting, though even here it is likely to be circa 35% ish. When turnout gets that low, the adjustments on certainty to vote become quite unpredictable. These are also areas dominated by the London and metropolitan areas, not fertile kipper territory, though not Lib Dem territory either.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014


    MikeK said:

    The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

    UKIP 30% (+3)
    Lab 28% (+5)
    Con 21% (0)
    Lib Dem 8% (-10)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Other 7% (0)

    UKIP polling 30% http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/15/ukip-leading-in-euro-elections-race/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter …

    So much for SeanT's UKIP decline!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's only one Leader of the Opposition not win the Euros held in a non General Election year.

    That was Neil Kinnock, will Ed join him in that stellar company?

    Although of course, if Ed gets the swing that Kinnock achieved at the next election then Labour would be the largest party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's only one Leader of the Opposition not win the Euros held in a non General Election year.

    That was Neil Kinnock, will Ed join him in that stellar company?

    Although of course, if Ed gets the swing that Kinnock achieved at the next election then Labour would be the largest party.
    Neil Kinnock was never Prime Minister.

    That's all you can take from my analogy. Honest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    If UKIP are on 30% nationally, which obviously includes places like Scotland and London where they hardly have any supporters at all, they must be in the 40-50% range in areas like East Anglia and the south west.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Just not plausible. Are we supposed to send out our double 00 agents to find a man in possession of plane and white Siamese cat?


    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    Further point on the missing plane. If this is part of a well-executed plan, it narrows the possible actors. The organisers must either be a sovereign state or have control of part of a sovereign state.

    .. with a full sized runway hidden out of sight of journalists and spy satellites. Seems implausible.

    Salt flats and a big shed would be all that is needed.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's only one Leader of the Opposition not win the Euros held in a non General Election year.

    That was Neil Kinnock, will Ed join him in that stellar company?

    Although of course, if Ed gets the swing that Kinnock achieved at the next election then Labour would be the largest party.
    Labour have got a Foot on their hands with EdM, you could well struggle to break 30% come the GE.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeK said:

    The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

    UKIP 30% (+3)
    Lab 28% (+5)
    Con 21% (0)
    Lib Dem 8% (-10)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Other 7% (0)

    The incompetent fop's Cast Iron Immigration Pledge blowing up in his face was always going to have an effect. Looks like we have some evidence of it already and that's before the campaigning truly starts in earnest. I guarantee you Farage will go huge on Cammie's Cast Iron immigration Pledge come the debates.

    Pork

    Do you know that if you turn your tail 90 degrees anti-clockwise in two clicks, you can turn your transponders off?

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2014
    That said, I'm going to have to be the in-house Labour pessimist for the second day in a row. Bad polls again.

    I'll reiterate that I think they need to forget about how these silly New Labour-esque tactical manoueuvres, and absolutely stop acting so defensively with their awful "iron discipline on spending" talk, and start proactively defining what they're FOR, rather than what they're against. Sum up in a clear, concise way what the Labour Party's purpose is in this day and age. And, the most worrying thing is, I'm not actually convinced they have that long to do it: people pay absolutely no attention to politics over the summer, then after that the media agenda will probably be dominated by the Scottish referendum, then once that's out the way then it's only a few months til election at which time the ordinary person will finally be starting to think about who to vote for and their impressions of what the parties' definitions are will start to set in stone. So Labour really only have a few months til summer to define themselves in a coherent way.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    Bit rich coming from one of the foremost PB Romneys and someone who predicted Lansley would be PM. You also claimed the kippers were on on the wane so your predictive powers are still as amusing as ever.

    Stick to your inept yellow boxes of spin, Avery.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Dayle Taylor ‏@Dayle_Taylor 14m
    @Michael_Heaver Everyone at my McDonald's is voting UKIP in May, I'm lovin' it.

    Were all Lovin' it... LOL
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    More likely he is taking a leaf out of John Major's book. We have had enough homegrown adulterous party leaders that we don't need to import the idea from the Continent.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2014
    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Labour have definitely fallen a notch, no doubt about it. Although as the votes are not going to the Tories there is no cause for panic at this juncture. There's not much Labour can do now until after the budget anyway so they may as well regroup for a week of so and see where they are next weekend.

    As as @SeanT rightly points out below, the NoRef thing may have given a much needed shot in the arm for Ukip. They were looking worrying faded, which wasn't a good thing for Labour.

    Labour will hope that a reinvigorated Ukip will fight a good fight with the Tories from the right. That's the ideal scenario.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    If his lucks that good, perhaps Liz Hurley will become available. :-)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Have you heard from Bond_James_Bond on PB today?

    Just saying.
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Just not plausible. Are we supposed to send out our double 00 agents to find a man in possession of plane and white Siamese cat?




    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    Further point on the missing plane. If this is part of a well-executed plan, it narrows the possible actors. The organisers must either be a sovereign state or have control of part of a sovereign state.

    .. with a full sized runway hidden out of sight of journalists and spy satellites. Seems implausible.

    Salt flats and a big shed would be all that is needed.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's only one Leader of the Opposition not win the Euros held in a non General Election year.

    That was Neil Kinnock, will Ed join him in that stellar company?

    Although of course, if Ed gets the swing that Kinnock achieved at the next election then Labour would be the largest party.


    Labour have got a Foot on their hands with EdM, you could well struggle to break 30% come the GE.

    Bold. Wanna bet?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Danny565 said:

    That said, I'm going to have to be the in-house Labour pessimist for the second day in a row. Bad polls again.

    I'll reiterate that I think they need to forget about how these silly New Labour-esque tactical manoueuvres, and absolutely stop acting so defensively with their awful "iron discipline on spending" talk, and start proactively defining what they're FOR, rather than what they're against. Sum up in a clear, concise way what the Labour Party's purpose is in this day and age. And, the most worrying thing is, I'm not actually convinced they have that long to do it: people pay absolutely no attention to politics over the summer, then after that the media agenda will probably be dominated by the Scottish referendum, then once that's out the way then it's only a few months til election at which time the ordinary person will finally be starting to think about who to vote for and their impressions of what the parties' definitions are will start to set in stone. So Labour really only have a few months til summer to define themselves in a coherent way.

    I think there's some truth in there. But they can't do anything until the budget so they need to wait until after that then make the spring count.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Far more likely the spy satellites have indeed found said plane. Possibly satellites whose purpose has previously been to do something completely different. I very much doubt what has been released to the press is everything the government knows. They could be in contact with the ransomers (if there are) as we speak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited March 2014
    Two main parties on 35/32..equals the public doesn't think much of either...

    However, much that Cameron has pi##sed off the right wingers and the sandal wearing beardy soft lefties feel betrayed by Clegg, I don't believe for a second if a GE was in a months time that LD would only get 9 %, nor UKIP get anywhere near 16%. Where those voters come from / go to isn't straightforward.

    I still think Ed and his 35% strategy will scrape over the line, he isn't exactly convincing the nation he is the people's champion etc. We certainly wont be seeing a Tony Blair stroll to power.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    UKIP surge;

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-affair-ukip-popularity-3246914
    That's a great photo of Mr Farage! Very funny. :-)

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Danny565 said:

    That said, I'm going to have to be the in-house Labour pessimist for the second day in a row. Bad polls again.

    I'll reiterate that I think they need to forget about how these silly New Labour-esque tactical manoueuvres, and absolutely stop acting so defensively with their awful "iron discipline on spending" talk, and start proactively defining what they're FOR, rather than what they're against. Sum up in a clear, concise way what the Labour Party's purpose is in this day and age. And, the most worrying thing is, I'm not actually convinced they have that long to do it: people pay absolutely no attention to politics over the summer, then after that the media agenda will probably be dominated by the Scottish referendum, then once that's out the way then it's only a few months til election at which time the ordinary person will finally be starting to think about who to vote for and their impressions of what the parties' definitions are will start to set in stone. So Labour really only have a few months til summer to define themselves in a coherent way.

    That lack of focus and values is a symptom. It's the cause you should be far more worried about. Opposition leaders always struggle to get heard at times. All the more so now that we have two parties and two leaders in government. Little Ed either improves sharpish and makes himself heard or he'll get defined by the coverage of him in the GE. Coverage which will be a relentless Crosby and tory press onslaught of linking little Ed, Balls and labour to Darling, Brown and the economic crash. That will put little Ed on the defensive most of time. He should take every opportunity to define himself instead in front of the voters and unspun. Which is why not taking part in the EU debates may well be a big tactical error on little Ed's part. To put it bluntly at the very least he needs the practice for the big 2015 debates since he needs to improve radically.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Note. The change figures in the above ComRes EP poll are with a survey the firm did in Jan 2013

    The original one related to a poll where there were serious questions over the detailed data.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeSmithson said:

    Note. The change figures in the above ComRes EP poll are with a survey the firm did in Jan 2013

    The original one related to a poll where there were serious questions over the detailed data.

    There are serious questions over the way the detailed data is presented in this poll too , Mike .
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    I will offer this guidance, that all the polls are still under reporting UKIPs true national value by 4 or 5 percentage points.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeK said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    I will offer this guidance, that all the polls are still under reporting UKIPs true national value by 4 or 5 percentage points.
    Dream On
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    anotherDave said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    NIGEL FARAGE WILL BE PM IN 14 MONTHS TIME.

    And who will be the first lady, Kirsten or Annabelle?

    The UK is becoming more like France and Italy by the day.
    UKIP surge;

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-affair-ukip-popularity-3246914
    That's a great photo of Mr Farage! Very funny. :-)

    Farage and women;

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L7jDuOtgsmg
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MarkSenior said:

    MikeK said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    I will offer this guidance, that all the polls are still under reporting UKIPs true national value by 4 or 5 percentage points.
    Dream On
    Your nightmare!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    The UKPR polling average has just been updated:

    New figures:

    Lab 37%
    Con 33%
    LD 10%

    Lab maj 44

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    (The only change is Labour down 1 point IIRC).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    MikeK said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    I will offer this guidance, that all the polls are still under reporting UKIPs true national value by 4 or 5 percentage points.
    So you think they could be on about 35% for the Euros? (Or does this just apply to the Westminster election).
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Heartening poll for UKIP. Very poor one for the Lib Dems. After the debate I think both parties shares will rise with the Lib Dems gaining EUrophiles from Labour, making a UKIP win more likely.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Blueberry said:

    Heartening poll for UKIP. Very poor one for the Lib Dems. After the debate I think both parties shares will rise with the Lib Dems gaining EUrophiles from Labour, making a UKIP win more likely.

    Not that bad for the LDs. They seem to be holding their Westminster voters for the EU poll too, which is better than the Conservatives and Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "I posit that there was a large quantity of gold bullion, or other very high value cargo in the hold of MH370. One or both of the flight crew conspired with a criminal gang to hi-jack the aircraft and fly it to a location where the criminal gang could recover the cargo.

    Pure speculation of course, but it would certainly explain the lack of a crash site, lack of attribution to terrorist groups and the desire to remain anonymous. The destination would not necessarily require a runway if the aircrew were prepared to ditch or crash land the aircraft, or even abandon the aircraft, for it to crash at a known location.

    Will Malaysian reveal a cargo list? If not, it may just lend credence to my posit."

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-207.html#post8378928
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    anotherDave said:

    Blueberry said:

    Heartening poll for UKIP. Very poor one for the Lib Dems. After the debate I think both parties shares will rise with the Lib Dems gaining EUrophiles from Labour, making a UKIP win more likely.

    Not that bad for the LDs. They seem to be holding their Westminster voters for the EU poll too, which is better than the Conservatives and Labour.
    Quite true.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week but did not do quite so well v a couple of Labour's backbench questions .
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners.
    -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    Nope , I mean from a variety of Westminster bubble insiders from all parties and none . You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner .

    LOL ROFLMAO and all the other inane things you like to finish your posts with .
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Davie Hutchison @DavieHutchison

    ComRes EuroParly poll: SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%



  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    UKPR rolling graph shows clear tightening.

    Lab rating now its lowest since 2010:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    MikeK said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    I will offer this guidance, that all the polls are still under reporting UKIPs true national value by 4 or 5 percentage points.
    So you think they could be on about 35% for the Euros? (Or does this just apply to the Westminster election).
    I'm talking about how UKIP does generally. If UKIP polls over 32.5% in the EU poll I will go to bed that night very happy indeed, as it would show that the party could make a very good showing for GE 2015.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    The other reasons Ed Miliband should reconsider taking part in the EU debate is that he can define himself against calamity Clegg and the lib dems as they will be the face and voice of this government. Since Clegg will self-evidently have to speak for and defend all the coalition government has done whether he and Cameron like it or not. If Clegg tries to posture against the tories that will be immediately pounced on by Farage and if Ed took part he would do so as well.

    The other reason to take would be to cause maximum chaos inside the tory party. Having Clegg Miliband and Farage taking part while Cameron hid and cowered in fear would be an incredible spectacle. It would also hardly be missed by unhappy tory backbenchers who are still biding their time while they wait to see just how bad the May elections are for Cammie.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    I think that's a reflection on how low their opinion is of the current political caste.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner.
    100% unspoofable.

    I should just accept the word of one of Clegg's inept and obsequious spinners, should I?
    Like 'fudge' I will.


    As you so rightly said, "LOL ROFLMAO"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc8i8ujDHHI

    :)
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ah, a crossover....but not the Tories.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    Comparisons even with the January poll are hard as I don't think that poll had the turnout considerations that they've used this time. It's perfectly plausible that Kippers will be keenest on voting in the Euros, but terra incognita all the same for the pollsters, and if the "surge" is in fact entirely due to that,

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2014
    Mick_Pork said:



    That lack of focus and values is a symptom. It's the cause you should be far more worried about. Opposition leaders always struggle to get heard at times. All the more so now that we have two parties and two leaders in government. Little Ed either improves sharpish and makes himself heard or he'll get defined by the coverage of him in the GE. Coverage which will be a relentless Crosby and tory press onslaught of linking little Ed, Balls and labour to Darling, Brown and the economic crash. That will put little Ed on the defensive most of time. He should take every opportunity to define himself instead in front of the voters and unspun. Which is why not taking part in the EU debates may well be a big tactical error on little Ed's part. To put it bluntly at the very least he needs the practice for the big 2015 debates since he needs to improve radically.

    The thing is, I genuinely don't think Ed Miliband is fundamentally unelectable (declaration of interest: I voted for him as leader so I perhaps have self-interested reasons to say this). Everyone always knew he was a geek, had a stupid voice, little natural charisma and didn't look "like a prime minister", but I don't think they HAD to be fatal flaws. The problem is, he seems to have gone out of his way to avoid saying anything interesting because of a completely stupid 1980s-timewarp fear of Labour being seen as too radical. But that means people have nothing else to focus on EXCEPT his obvious flaws.

    Being in the "centre-ground" effectively means you're not saying anything interesting. So this New Labour-esque strategy of rambling on about "spending discipline" and being too scared to argue for increased spending or other radical things (save the occasional isolated mildly anti-business measure) was always going to be a disaster for Ed, because if he's not saying anything distinctive or different to what people expect from politicians, then the only things people are going to notice about him are his funny voice and his funny looks. If he went in a more explicitly left-wing direction (and I have to say again, I really find the Westminster bubble's thoughts that he's set out some radical socialist platform to be hilarious, because I really don't think that's the public's perception ATALL) then atleast there'd be more things about him for people to focus on.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NickPalmer said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The Comres data tables are very confusing and do not show fully the complex calculations they had to make to get a result showing UKIP in the lead . They seem to have changed their methodology instead of keeping to the same methodology as in their last poll and showing UKIP falling back

    Comparisons even with the January poll are hard as I don't think that poll had the turnout considerations that they've used this time. It's perfectly plausible that Kippers will be keenest on voting in the Euros, but terra incognita all the same for the pollsters, and if the "surge" is in fact entirely due to that,

    Two guys trying to console each other. Get a grip there!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Tykejohnno said:

    Davie Hutchison @DavieHutchison

    ComRes EuroParly poll: SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%



    That is a sub sample of 84 voters
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    anotherDave said:



    Come on, 8% is rubbish. Clegg has set his stall out as the being the party that definitely wants in. He was right to dare Farage to debate because they can't get much lower. The debate should binarise things a bit between the parties, make people a bit less tribal in their voting pattern, give them both a boost and importantly for Farage, recruit a few more first-UKIP voters which will make it easier for them to vote for the party at other elections.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarkSenior said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Davie Hutchison @DavieHutchison

    ComRes EuroParly poll: SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%



    That is a sub sample of 84 voters
    Big LOL!
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    Nope , I mean from a variety of Westminster bubble insiders from all parties and none . You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner .

    LOL ROFLMAO and all the other inane things you like to finish your posts with .
    I agree with you, I thought he performed well, he went aggresively at Labour and it served him well. Perhaps that's what upset Pork, he really got stuck into Labour every chance he got.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited March 2014
    Blueberry said:



    Come on, 8% is rubbish. Clegg has set his stall out as the being the party that definitely wants in. He was right to dare Farage to debate because they can't get much lower. The debate should binarise things a bit between the parties, make people a bit less tribal in their voting pattern, give them both a boost and importantly for Farage, recruit a few more first-UKIP voters which will make it easier for them to vote for the party at other elections.

    Sure, but the number might be wrong. The good part is that they're not losing support in the EU Parliament poll vs the Westminster poll.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    macisback said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    Nope , I mean from a variety of Westminster bubble insiders from all parties and none . You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner .

    LOL ROFLMAO and all the other inane things you like to finish your posts with .
    I agree with you, I thought he performed well, he went aggresively at Labour and it served him well. Perhaps that's what upset Pork, he really got stuck into Labour every chance he got.

    Your newbieness is showing. You think Porky supports Labour.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    And I also agree that Ed should definitely be trying to get into that EU debate because he needs as much practice as he can get. Frankly, he should probably try and get some kind of "Call Clegg"-style radio phonein, since he's going have to do those types of things in the election campaign so he may as well get his first few awful attempts out of the way before it really matters.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner.
    100% unspoofable.

    I should just accept the word of one of Clegg's inept and obsequious spinners, should I?
    Like 'fudge' I will.


    As you so rightly said, "LOL ROFLMAO"

    Nope you should take in the views of people such as Andrew Neil and the various guests on his programs in an attempt to cure you of your bias .
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Mick_Pork said:

    The other reasons Ed Miliband should reconsider taking part in the EU debate is that he can define himself against calamity Clegg and the lib dems as they will be the face and voice of this government. Since Clegg will self-evidently have to speak for and defend all the coalition government has done whether he and Cameron like it or not. If Clegg tries to posture against the tories that will be immediately pounced on by Farage and if Ed took part he would do so as well.

    The other reason to take would be to cause maximum chaos inside the tory party. Having Clegg Miliband and Farage taking part while Cameron hid and cowered in fear would be an incredible spectacle. It would also hardly be missed by unhappy tory backbenchers who are still biding their time while they wait to see just how bad the May elections are for Cammie.

    What are the backbenchers going to do force a leadership change so close to an election that is very much there to be won by Cammie. I know some of these fools are prone to show extreme disloyalty but surely they won't be to keen on another dose of Labour.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
    Repeat - sub sample of 84 voters
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,498
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
    Repeat - sub sample of 84 voters
    Thought so, 12% for LDs in Scotland definitely stretching credibility.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
    Repeat - sub sample of 84 voters

    John Ruddy @jruddy99

    @DavieHutchison @sundersays Based on a survey of 181 people in Scotland... so how accurate do you think that is?


  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
    Repeat - sub sample of 84 voters
    Yet Another Mark Senior porkie. The Scottish sub-sample was 181.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What is interesting is it doesn't seem to matter what muck the media dig up on Farage, UKIP HQ, and the "colorful" characters that are standing for election for them, it doesn't seem to do UKIP polling rating any harm at all.

    If Farage can rile calamity Clegg enough in the TV debate then Clegg might just do as he did at the recent PMQ's with Harman and make himself look a bit of a chump. Amid all the focus on how Farage can snap and lose it when he get's angry, there seems to have developed bit of a blind spot to how that's just as true for Clegg and Cammie.

    A good debate for Farage could pay off in a big way while Clegg's ostrich faction are fooling nobody with slightly improved ratings for Clegg which are still basically toxic.

    I seem to recall that having Clegg as the face and main voice supporting AV didn't turn out too well for him, the lib dems or AV. So it's still a bit of a mystery why Clegg's spinners think having him as the face and voice of staying in Europe is all that wise a move. If it backfires then the fallout for the lib dems will be pretty damn hard to ignore.
    The general consensus both within and without the Westminster bubble was that Cleggy demolished Harman at PMQ's this week
    By which you really mean inside the bubble of Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners. -39! Whooopeee!

    LOL

    You should just accept that you are incapable of judging Clegg's performances in an unbiased manner.
    100% unspoofable.

    I should just accept the word of one of Clegg's inept and obsequious spinners, should I?
    Like 'fudge' I will.


    As you so rightly said, "LOL ROFLMAO"

    Nope you should take in the views of people such as Andrew Neil and the various guests on his programs in an attempt to cure you of your bias .
    Andrew Neil a "cure" for bias? He is one of the worst spinners in UK politics. He quite literally killed The Scotsman with his preposterous bias.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Full data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1117/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Are they? I can only see a digest there. There's a heading DOWNLOADS but no content thereafter.
    Same here. The "Downloads" section is empty.
    It is available here

    Click here

    http://tinyurl.com/oonnjxb
    Yikes! Those are truly horrifying numbers for the Unionist parties.

    Euro VI - Scotland (+/- change from Euro 2009)

    SNP 39% (+10)
    Lab 19% (-2)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 12% (n/c)
    Grn 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+1)
    Ind 2% (+1)
    Repeat - sub sample of 84 voters
    Yet Another Mark Senior porkie. The Scottish sub-sample was 181.

    Another Stuart Dickson porkie , although there were 181 in the whole Scottish sub sample only 84 were in their Euro poll 100% certain to vote figures .
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Danny565 said:

    The thing is, I genuinely don't think Ed Miliband is fundamentally unelectable (declaration of interest: I voted for him as leader so I perhaps have self-interested reasons to say this). Everyone always knew he was a geek, had a stupid voice, little natural charisma and didn't look "like a prime minister", but I don't think they HAD to be fatal flaws.

    He's not. That's just something out of touch tories usually spin to try and console themselves. John Major was still elected in 92 after all so I think we can take that with more than a pinch of salt. There's a difference between the 'unelectable' spin and polling trends that show a fundamental weakness with the current labour leadership that will be exploited to the maximum in an election campaign. A campaign that will start before 2015 as you have that completely correct and both parties will be pushing hard and testing their campaign 'messages' in the second half of 2014.

    The polls are still in labour's favour so the danger is what could happen when the voters start looking far more seriously at the 2015 election. That means the leaders since both Cameron and Miliband won't want too much of a spotlight on Balls or Osborne for obvious reasons.
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