politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris vacillated on Darroch because he’s weak, not because of

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election

No he won't.

Oh yes he will.


Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.

Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.

Either way Farage is PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election

No he won't.

Oh yes he will.


Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.

Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.

Either way Farage is PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.

This is a totally different scenario, May lost her majority because of a crap campaign and the dementia tax but she still won most votes and seats and stayed PM.

If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that

rottenborough said:

Ohhh!

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1150012903766003712

So what, Salvini has never his his links to Putin, his party is well ahead in the polls and his coalition with Berlusconi heading for a landslide.

The main people who care about this are his centre left opponents

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

kyf_100 said:

I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.

I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is

Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!

I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

I don't think he's willing for one second to go to No Deal. But he's very happy to let Parliament block it rather than do so himself, as he avoids the economic pain of No Deal while loads of plonkers will lap it up as he blathers, "Pwaff! How awful that the wretched scaredlings of Westminster should thwart the People's will! Pwaff, pwarf!"

I think this is exactly right.

Which will leave a choice between extension or election.

Which way will he go?

Extension, I would imagine. But hope I'm wrong. We need that election.

Polls when there is not an election produce a response from respondents that are ‘unconsidered’ in that the question has not been given much thought given there isn’t an election tomorrow. So yes ‘Boris’ is easily given as an answer because one does not have to think of the implications of that response. It’s no different to a past labour saying they are going to vote lib or any other possibility. Polls remain nothing more than a snap shot, ands fuzzy one at that, at that particular moment in time. Once an election is actually in progress the responses get more considered and are more likely to reflect the outcome. But you know all that after all I learnt it from you lot or your ilk years ago!😀 can we please remember that at times.

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

kyf_100 said:

I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.

I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is

Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!

I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader

You make so many predictions it would be odd if you weren’t lucky from time to time. Stopped clock syndrome.

I think we need a GE as soon as possible. It doesn't matter how that happens, whether it's Boris's decision or through a VONC.

Groundhog day again I see.

justin124 said:

kyf_100 said:

justin124 said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?

Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.

The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.

Labour is being propped up by FPTP, it's nothing to be proud of. It's actually quite a sad situation and one day the electorate might just wipe that smug smile off their faces

Gallowgate said:

Groundhog day again I see.

The Conservative party attitude to proroguing Parliament is reminiscent of Bill Murray grabbing the bewildered groundhog and driving over the quarry edge.

OllyT said:

justin124 said:

kyf_100 said:

justin124 said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?

Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.

The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.

Labour is being propped up by FPTP, it's nothing to be proud of. It's actually quite a sad situation and one day the electorate might just wipe that smug smile off their faces

Its already happened in Scotland.

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.

I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.

Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

kyf_100 said:

I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.

I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is

Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!

I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader

You make so many predictions it would be odd if you weren’t lucky from time to time. Stopped clock syndrome.

Unfair. HYUFD was saying Boris would win when he was on his third wife long before anyone else thought he had a hope.

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.

You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.

The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.

justin124 said:

kyf_100 said:

justin124 said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?

Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.

The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.

That's true, although one would expect the Brexit Party's vote to be rather more concentrated in particular areas than the SDP's was in 1983 and 1987.

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.

You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.

The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.

But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.

The Leave campaigns contradicted each other. By doing that you can with a straight face tell one group what they want to hear while someone else with a straight face can tell another group what they want to hear.

Of course they'll contradict each other, they're rivals and view politics differently. But that can be settled at elections.

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.

You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.

The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.

But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.

They won't. Vote Leave and Leave.EU had different leaders, Boris and Gove and Farage and different organisers, Cummings and Banks and differed on their approach to Brexit too, they still won the referendum and beat the united Remain campaign 'Britain Stronger in Europe'

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.

I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.

Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland

52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.

55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.

Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceasees.

I never said it s got in Scotland

52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.

55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.

Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.

Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.

The Union won, Brexit won, it was Nationalists and Remainers who failed

AndyJS said:

As well as another general election, let's have another Scottish independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with finding out what the people want and accepting their verdict.

Shall we try 1. Corporal punishment in schools 2. Capital punishment for murder. 3. Castration for sex offenders. That'll separate the men from the boys and keep the Leavers happy.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceasees.

I never said it s got in Scotland

52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.

55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.

Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.

Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.

The Union won, Brexit won, it was Nationalists and Remainers who failed

The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

Afternoon all

To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.

I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.

His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.

Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak

The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.

PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceasees.

I never said it s got in Scotland

52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.

55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.

Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.

Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.

The Union won, Brexit won, it was Nationalists and Remainers who failed

The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:

Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%

Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Tories plus Brex
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?

PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.

With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.

I wanted you to vanish in 2014 but you guys were too frit. What's changed since?

The Conservative and Unionist Party has morphed into the English Nationalist Party.

And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692

38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017

It never ceasees.

I never said it s got in Scotland

52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.

55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.

Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.

Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.

The Union won, Brexit won, it was Nationalists and Remainers who failed

The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

No it is not.

The Union may now be dead for a narrow majority of Scottish Remainers, Curtice has 51% of Scottish Remainers now voting Yes but with 64% of Scottish Leavers still voting No, No is still narrowly ahead overall

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/

stodge said:

Afternoon all

To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.

I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.

His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.

Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?

How on earth is Johnson going to get the economy "going gangbusters" by end of October. That is three months away. Nothing he does in that time will make more than a scintilla of difference.

For a start he can't get his new CoE to have an emergency budget until at least early september.

It's just more bluster and piffle.

Recidivist said:

Nothing is as simple as that.

The Conservatives don't have the numbers of foot soldiers they used to, but they are hardly out of the game yet. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have large and fired up memberships. The Brexit Party doesn't even have a branch structure yet. And given that Farage has obviously chosen to avoid taking on any rivals in his own party he's going to have to work like anything to sustain a national campaign.

So much depends on where your workers are and whether they will come out so you can get a dozen people canvassing or knocking up for a parish council seat in one area while a District Council seat is lost on a 40% swing because the challenging party can get activists in from other areas.

The question then becomes the extent to which local campaigning can create any kind of "tactical" voting effect.

geoffw said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.

I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?

The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.

Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.

It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.

In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:

(a) an absolute boon for the SNP
(b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Ohhh!

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1150012903766003712

So what, Salvini has never his his links to Putin, his party is well ahead in the polls and his coalition with Berlusconi heading for a landslide.

The main people who care about this are his centre left opponents

Isn't the next Italian election in 2023?

So, they may be heading for a landslide... but in four years time.

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?

The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.

Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.

It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.

In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:

(a) an absolute boon for the SNP
(b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour

Efficiency can't be measured in isolation from the results of the other parties.

For example, in 2010, the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote but won less than 9% of the seats. If you shifted 2 million votes from the Tories to UKIP/Brexit Party, suddenly the Lib Dems would win a lot more seats based on exactly the same vote distribution.

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election

No he won't.

Oh yes he will.


Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.

Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.

Either way Farage is PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.

And after it was called. Why HYUFD insists on treating polls as gospel is beyond me.

Be fair. He doesn't treat all polls as gospel - only the ones he likes

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1150070307539103744

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

So PM Farage

Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!

Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.

As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.

I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?

The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.

Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.

It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.

In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:

(a) an absolute boon for the SNP
(b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour

"The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half."
I don't think so. If I, as a demiurge, were to distribute votes to maximise (say) the number of Conservative MPs, I would sprinkle them around with just enough to win in as many constituencies as possible. And I agree that there would be zero votes in the losing constituencies. The winners would have perhaps between 25% and 35% in the other constituencies.

rcs1000 said:

The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.

Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.

It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.

In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:

(a) an absolute boon for the SNP
(b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour

Sound enough conclusions I suspect. But it seems to me that swing to LD will correlate with Remain, which suggests their vote distribution will be a little more concentrated than we're used to seeing.