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I am a Die Hard 4: Die Harder Remainer but, if we're going to do it, I'd rather have Farage than that corpulent lying psycho Boris at the tiller.HYUFD said:
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnativeMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.0 -
Betting Post
F1: will write this up shortly, but I've split one stake between backing Leclerc for the fastest qualifier at 5.6 (it's lengthened a little just now) on Betfair, with a hedge, and 12 (13 with boost) on Ladbrokes for him to get fastest qualifying lap and the win.
If he starts 1st his win odds will tumble to around 2.5 and he'll be eminently hedgeable.0 -
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris0 -
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority at a general election before Brexit to get a mandate to deliver Brexit, though May and Hunt cannotPhilip_Thompson said:
Precisely why there can't be a General Election before Brexit.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
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Yup, as a remainiac it feels quite encouraging:MikeSmithson said:the positive thing all of this of course is that Boris is not one who cares too much to honour promises
1) The fact that he promised to leave in October has no particular relationship to what he'll actually do
2) He must be sharp enough to work out that his shambolic optimism schtick only works if there's something to be optimistic about, and would get old very quickly given the economic shitfest + administrative shitshow that would characterize No Deal
3) He's the only person in the Conservative Party who could actually sell them on a referendum0 -
32% in a hypothetical poll doesn't guarantee a majority.HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority at a general election before Brexit to deliver Brexit, though May and Hunt cannotPhilip_Thompson said:
Precisely why there can't be a General Election before Brexit.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
50% in a poll didn't get a majority: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-hits-magical-50-per-102774630 -
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Dealalex. said:
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority at a general election before Brexit to get a mandate to deliver Brexit, though May and Hunt cannotPhilip_Thompson said:
Precisely why there can't be a General Election before Brexit.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=200 -
Fine but as you will vote for neither I doubt Boris caresDura_Ace said:
I am a Die Hard 4: Die Harder Remainer but, if we're going to do it, I'd rather have Farage than that corpulent lying psycho Boris at the tiller.HYUFD said:
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnativeMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.0 -
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris0 -
@Roger is of such moral decrepitude that he thinks Kevin Spacey's victims should consider themselves lucky. His opinions, when not Oscar related, should be ignored.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. Because you brought up Stoke. It is in our country, Paris is not.Roger said:
You were comparing it to Stoke.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.Roger said:
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?Philip_Thompson said:
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?Roger said:
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.GrimUpNorth said:
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leaveRoger said:
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answerHYUFD said:
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.Roger said:I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1149210110666977286?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
Would you rather have our laws passed by Hartlepool or Sydney?1 -
The poll you quoted was “if we haven’t left the EU at the time of the next election”. Not “if there is an election after an extension”.HYUFD said:
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Dealalex. said:
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority at a general election before Brexit to get a mandate to deliver Brexit, though May and Hunt cannotPhilip_Thompson said:
Precisely why there can't be a General Election before Brexit.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
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Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May0 -
So only pilots should have the right to vote. It's a view....Roger said:
If someone said to me that they'd like me to pilot 400 passengers and it was obvious I'd never flown a plane before but they said don't worry give it a go and we crashed I don't think it would be partronising to ask whether I was a fit person to have been in the cockpit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, patronising people who disagree with you doesn't win a referendum. As was discovered recently.
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It sounds like Roger would like to go back to 1832 so we don't have to bother consulting the peasants and working class oiks in an election or referendum as clearly they are incapable of making the right decisionfelix said:
So only pilots should have the right to vote. It's a view....Roger said:
If someone said to me that they'd like me to pilot 400 passengers and it was obvious I'd never flown a plane before but they said don't worry give it a go and we crashed I don't think it would be partronising to ask whether I was a fit person to have been in the cockpit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, patronising people who disagree with you doesn't win a referendum. As was discovered recently.
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So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May0 -
It asked in the header 'Imagine there is a general election in Spring next year' then the scenario where we had not left the EU ie after an extension beyond October 31stalex. said:
The poll you quoted was “if we haven’t left the EU at the time of the next election”. Not “if there is an election after an extension”.HYUFD said:
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Dealalex. said:
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority at a general election before Brexit to get a mandate to deliver Brexit, though May and Hunt cannotPhilip_Thompson said:
Precisely why there can't be a General Election before Brexit.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=200 -
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Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general electionkinabalu said:
Who is this 'PM Farage' you keep talking about?HYUFD said:If the former the latter is likely and the Brexit Party becomes the main party of the right, quite possibly with PM Farage
Should I know him?
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
“In an afternoon”. A keeper.HYUFD said:
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternooneek said:
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?HYUFD said:
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anywaywilliamglenn said:
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?HYUFD said:
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend againwilliamglenn said:
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?HYUFD said:
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outrightwilliamglenn said:
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.HYUFD said:
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal onlyStuartDickson said:
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.OblitusSumMe said:Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
No Deal = economic crisis
Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts
Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.0 -
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Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May0 -
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.HYUFD said:
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majoritywilliamglenn said:
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.HYUFD said:
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Dealwilliamglenn said:
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?HYUFD said:Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!0 -
Electoral Calculus gives the Brexit Party 352 seats and a majority of 54 if PM Hunt has not delivered Brexit by the Spring on those numbers with the Tories reduced to just 19 MPs.CarlottaVance said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
With PM Boris not delivering Brexit the Brexit Party is largest party with 283 MPs and Farage PM with most of the rump 33 Tory MPs left and the 10 DUP MPs backing him
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
StuartDickson said:
“In an afternoon”. A keeper.
They keep piling up!HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive todaywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
0 -
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.0 -
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?0 -
So Johnson is even better than the man who wrecked his own career, halved the support of the Tory party and has brought the country to the brink of disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Yay.0 -
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
How did Cameron "halve the support of the Tory party"?Chris said:
So Johnson is even better than the man who wrecked his own career, halved the support of the Tory party and has brought the country to the brink of disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Yay.
Cameron was a great leader.0 -
No just washingtonPhilip_Thompson said:
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.Roger said:
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?Philip_Thompson said:
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?Roger said:
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.GrimUpNorth said:
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leaveRoger said:
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answerHYUFD said:
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.Roger said:I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1149210110666977286?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?0 -
No, as the Tory leader is still MayChris said:
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.HYUFD said:
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majoritywilliamglenn said:
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.HYUFD said:
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Dealwilliamglenn said:
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?HYUFD said:Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!0 -
The difference between May and Johnson could ultimately be that May went more or less on her own terms, but Johnson could be forced out in chaotic circumstances beyond his control.Philip_Thompson said:Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?0 -
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general electionkinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
No it should not. Because to most people May is leader of the Conservative Party and everything else is hypothetical.Chris said:
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.HYUFD said:
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majoritywilliamglenn said:
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.HYUFD said:
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Dealwilliamglenn said:
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?HYUFD said:Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!
There could be some people who would happily back either Hunt or Boris but not May - I am one of those people. Now because I'm a politics geek I'll think it through, others don't.0 -
Even that swing was below the Tory to Labour London averageStuartDickson said:
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.0 -
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was0 -
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
I think he can. I think there is no guarantee whatsoever he will. And the campaign will matter immensely.HYUFD said:
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was0 -
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.justin124 said:
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
Absolutely!CarlottaVance said:
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.justin124 said:
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html0 -
So, being charitable, Boris is a slightly better than average election campaigner.HYUFD said:
Even that swing was below the Tory to Labour London averageStuartDickson said:
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationallywilliamglenn said:
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.
So much hope based on so little evidence. Tragic.0 -
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
0 -
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX0 -
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX0 -
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html0 -
I don't think he's willing for one second to go to No Deal. But he's very happy to let Parliament block it rather than do so himself, as he avoids the economic pain of No Deal while loads of plonkers will lap it up as he blathers, "Pwaff! How awful that the wretched scaredlings of Westminster should thwart the People's will! Pwaff, pwarf!"HYUFD said:
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.HYUFD said:
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
Garbage.HYUFD said:
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%stodge said:
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?HYUFD said:
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was0 -
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html0 -
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX0 -
The idea floated here is Johnson's turd polishing skills (his terminology) will see him through. Leavers will see the polish and Remainers won't care any more.
A heroic assumption, it seems to me.0 -
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html0 -
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
They will surely campaign as separate parties - rather than under a single umbrella. Not that I expect another Independence Referendum in the near future.StuartDickson said:
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX0 -
Currency. Canny Scots know not to mess with the pound in their pocket.StuartDickson said:
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX0 -
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
I will be surprised if the Brexit Party comes second there.nichomar said:
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
Agreed. No-one much will argue for the Union next time.StuartDickson said:
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
It doesn't mean necessarily that people are crying out for another go or that the SNP will reinvent itself from the Fianna Fáil style party of national establishment and patronage.
So speaks a Britnat, I guess.0 -
Yes difficult territory to campaign in. Has the count been confirmed for the Friday?justin124 said:
I will be surprised if the Brexit Party comes second there.nichomar said:
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.0
-
Praise the Lord.anothernick said:On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
0 -
Never mind Brexit, the Tory Party and the union, he will break HYUFD's heart...anothernick said:On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
0 -
Macron was the equivalent of a very experienced cabinet minister. Farage is more of a Le Pen outsider.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
Putting on my Mr Cynical partisan hat, we can live with hovering c38% If accompanied by a collapse in SCon and SLab support.justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
A SLD and Brexit Party surge is pretty meaningless in Scotland. At worst we could lose NE Fife. But we’d see a lot of gains from SCon and SLab.
The tactical unwind from SCon back to SLD cripples the former, but barely benefits the latter.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.0 -
Don't forget UKIP!justin124 said:
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.0 -
If we are heading for a GE on that polling the current commons will pass PR in an afternoon.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/12/voting-intention-con-24-brex-21-lab-20-lib-dem-19-0 -
The person about to mess with pounds in pockets is called Boris Johnson.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Currency. Canny Scots know not to mess with the pound in their pocket.StuartDickson said:
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
The next Tory to try slagging off the Scots, à la Osborne, will be laughed off the park.0 -
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.StuartDickson said:justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
0 -
Is Boris suggesting a switch to bitcoin is he?StuartDickson said:
The person about to mess with pounds in pockets is called Boris Johnson.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Currency. Canny Scots know not to mess with the pound in their pocket.StuartDickson said:
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?JBriskinindyref2 said:
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.StuartDickson said:
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why your obsession with Scottish polls?StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
The next Tory to try slagging off the Scots, à la Osborne, will be laughed off the park.0 -
For a Tory, you seem to react to Brexit Party advances with surprising glee.HYUFD said:Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
I suppose the mortally wounded are relieved as the axeman approaches the chopping block.0 -
Maybe but only difference likely to be a Brexit Party and Tory coalition government rather thsn a Brexit Party majority Government on that polling if PR replaced FPTPLordWakefield said:
If we are heading for a GE on that polling the current commons will pass PR in an afternoon.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, disagree.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
Staggering around the radioactive rubble that used to be Epping after Johnson has followed Trump into Bolton's Iranian apocalypse, you will still be clutching a battered print-out of that poll...HYUFD said:0 -
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peakStuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html0 -
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?JBriskinindyref2 said:
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.StuartDickson said:justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.0 -
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as thatanothernick said:On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
0 -
Boris is the only Tory who can beat back most of the Brexit Party advance and get them voting Tory again, without cutting the Brexit Party back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general electionStuartDickson said:
For a Tory, you seem to react to Brexit Party advances with surprising glee.HYUFD said:Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
I suppose the mortally wounded are relieved as the axeman approaches the chopping block.0 -
The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.HYUFD said:
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peakStuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?0 -
Pole - Bottas
2 - Hamilton
3 - Le Clerc
4 - Verstappen
5 - Gasly
6 - Vettel0 -
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?CarlottaVance said:
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.justin124 said:
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
0 -
Simona Halep within a game of beating Serena Williams to win the Ladies' Wimbledon Final0
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If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.StuartDickson said:
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?JBriskinindyref2 said:
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.StuartDickson said:justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.0 -
Halep beats Williams0
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The Wimbledon final is already over, in about 55 minutes.0
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Oh yes. The UK PM pressing the self-destruct button is dreadful news for the SNP. I don’t know how we’ll cope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.StuartDickson said:
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?JBriskinindyref2 said:
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.StuartDickson said:justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.0 -
No he won't.HYUFD said:
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general electionkinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0 -
This is getting silly now.williamglenn said:0 -
Is this a SF style threat if you don't get your Section 30. It's been a long time coming.StuartDickson said:
Oh yes. The UK PM pressing the self-destruct button is dreadful news for the SNP. I don’t know how we’ll cope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.StuartDickson said:
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?JBriskinindyref2 said:
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.StuartDickson said:justin124 said:
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.StuartDickson said:
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.justin124 said:
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.StuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.0 -
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.nichomar said:
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.0 -
Oh yes he will.Mexicanpete said:
No he won't.HYUFD said:
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general electionkinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Either way Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Well, assuming he doesn't get VoNC in first 24 hours, we will soon know which of you is correct.HYUFD said:
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as thatanothernick said:On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
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NURSE!JBriskinindyref2 said:Is this a SF style threat if you don't get your Section 30. It's been a long time coming.
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PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.StuartDickson said:
The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.HYUFD said:
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peakStuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?0 -
On topic. And the phrase “unsubstantiated optimism”rottenborough said:
Well, assuming he doesn't get VoNC in first 24 hours, we will soon know which of you is correct.HYUFD said:
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as thatanothernick said:On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
I am beginning to think there is a difference between a politician very popular due to celebrity status, such as popping up on hignfy, imaceleb, celebrity squares, and how credibility and popularity goes from humongous to complete floccinaucinihilipilification (to use Boris Bluestocking and vaguely silly terms) when that politician goes from celebrity to a serious job, and doesn’t work 25 hours a day like Thatcher or have command of detail the electorate will demand.
The problem isn’t making Brexit happen, it’s how, delivering Brexit in a way that doesn’t discredit the Conservative Party for decades. This means working 25 hours a day and having extremely thorough command of all the detail. Otherwise unsubstantiated optimism will be like the iceberg to the titanic.0 -
With pleasure. We know when we’re not wanted.Philip_Thompson said:
PM May had 296 of 533 English MPs. If you Scots would just go away we could have a much healthier majority.StuartDickson said:
The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.HYUFD said:
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peakStuartDickson said:
It isn’t Hunt/Johnson hypothetical polls that should worry SLab. It is the real polls, eg:justin124 said:...the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?0 -
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn iskyf_100 said:
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.nichomar said:
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.kyf_100 said:
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?justin124 said:
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.0 -
Electoral Calculus hazards guesses. It evidently thinks that the Brexit party is particularly strong in Wales: on a 22:22:22:22 split, it picks up 27 out of 40 Welsh seats.geoffw said:
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?CarlottaVance said:
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.justin124 said:
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.kinabalu said:
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.HYUFD said:Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!0
This discussion has been closed.