politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on an early exit for Corbyn
Comments
-
30 overs for Roy & Young Johnny Bairstow I think.0
-
Indeed.Nigelb said:
"The key variable is where we are on the curve..."Andy_Cooke said:I noticed some in the last thread using the Laffer Curve as an excuse to support their preconceptions rather than as an argument.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
Pretty well right, except there is no empirical evidence for the existence of such a thing.
One might posit the existence of numerous curves, for every different economy at different points in time - but as a useful predictor of economic responses to policy, such a thing just does not exist.
The two end points are fixed at 0 (outside of edge cases at 100% where the earner is constrained by authority or duty to work for free). We know that at all points other than the end points, the curve is above the line.
The shape of said curve could be a simple arc, or double peaked, or resemble the scribblings of a demented alcoholic. It could even bend back upon itself at places, for all we know. It may even be the case that going up and down don't come back to the same place, due to "stickiness."
Which means that relying on it as an argument-ending justification is usually fallacious, albeit pointing out cases where marginal rates are absurdly high or negligibly low can provide plausibility.0 -
Are you ready for a month in the complaints department at Labour HQ....I hear it really is an awful place to work....Pulpstar said:30 overs for Roy & Young Johnny Bairstow I think.
0 -
@Nigelb et al
“Beyond that, the idea that there is any theoretical curve which is useful as a predictive toll is simply nonsense for the rhetorical use of right wing politicians.”
The equivalent for left wing politicans is claiming that any tax increase will automatically increase tax take without considering behavioural changes. They’re politicians, it’s what they do - partial truths are a stock in trade. Although outright lying now seems very popular.0 -
Hilarious - I'd be mildly surprised if half of them can even spell educashon!FrancisUrquhart said:The watchdog showed the changes in students awarded first-class degrees between 2010-11 and 2017-18, including:
Imperial College London from 31% to 46%
University of Huddersfield: 15% to 40%
University College London: 24% to 40%
Durham University: 18% to 38%
University of East Anglia: 14% to 39%
University of Northumbria: 16% to 35%
University of West London: 13% to 34%
Staffordshire University: 14% to 34%
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-489516530 -
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)0 -
Best not to interrupt them in mid-smear - they don't like ittlg86 said:
Colleges don't award degrees, the university does.DecrepitJohnL said:
So Jeremy Corbyn's CSE in metalwork from 1960 is now worth a Nobel Prize in physics. No wonder Theresa May lost her majority in 2017. Speaking of which, I gather some Oxbridge colleges hand out firsts like icing sugar at one of Michael Gove's parties.FrancisUrquhart said:The watchdog showed the changes in students awarded first-class degrees between 2010-11 and 2017-18, including:
Imperial College London from 31% to 46%
University of Huddersfield: 15% to 40%
University College London: 24% to 40%
Durham University: 18% to 38%
University of East Anglia: 14% to 39%
University of Northumbria: 16% to 35%
University of West London: 13% to 34%
Staffordshire University: 14% to 34%
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-489516530 -
Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.0
-
Indeed. Also worth pointing out that the Laffer curve has no known formula - no one knows where the peak is.Andy_Cooke said:I noticed some in the last thread using the Laffer Curve as an excuse to support their preconceptions rather than as an argument.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
0 -
It would have to be done in the mini-session after the summer and before conference. Even then, it would produce an election *on* Oct 31 (if the Thursday convention is adhered to), unless the 2-week period is itself cut short by a Dissolution motion.TOPPING said:
analagously, at what point would calling a VONC be too late to stop us leaving on Oct 31?Richard_Nabavi said:One interesting question is what Labour would do if Boris were to ask for a GE at a time when the election campaigns (with parliament dissolved) would straddle October 31st.
The normal process from VoNC to polling day takes a little over 7 weeks, at the minimum.0 -
It's coming home, it's coming home, CRICKET's coming home.
I'm sticking to my morning prediction, we'll win the semi and then lose to the Black Caps in the final0 -
Exquisite. So Grieve et al would have to take a view on BoJo's actions well before he had taken or not taken them. For ever more he will then plead that he was/wasn't about to do whatever it was plus the VONC-ers would have a hell of a task to convince waverers that BoJo was indeed definitely going to do/not do it.david_herdson said:
It would have to be done in the mini-session after the summer and before conference. Even then, it would produce an election *on* Oct 31 (if the Thursday convention is adhered to), unless the 2-week period is itself cut short by a Dissolution motion.TOPPING said:
analagously, at what point would calling a VONC be too late to stop us leaving on Oct 31?Richard_Nabavi said:One interesting question is what Labour would do if Boris were to ask for a GE at a time when the election campaigns (with parliament dissolved) would straddle October 31st.
The normal process from VoNC to polling day takes a little over 7 weeks, at the minimum.
Edit: = it's a mess!0 -
Its the hope that kills you...TheScreamingEagles said:It's coming home, it's coming home, CRICKET's coming home.
I'm sticking to my morning prediction, we'll win the semi and then lose to the Black Caps in the final0 -
They are actually first in some polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's the point Keiran's made to me, but they were second then, but now they are fourth, there's a difference between a hiding and an ELE.williamglenn said:
They agreed to one last time when polls said they faced wipeout.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?0 -
I do hope so. We need one.david_herdson said:Turn that question round.
Will Labour NC a Boris-led govt intent on a No Deal Brexit?
Let's assume they do. The next questions are:
- will the Commons back Corbyn to be PM?
- will the Commons back anyone else to be PM?
If not, then we head to a GE anyway (and quite possibly No Deal into the bargain).
If they will back Corbyn in principle, the question becomes what conditions the SNP, Lib Dems and others would place on that Labour government. Probably, these would involve rapid action to at the least kick the can on Brexit but that done, the incentive for the LDs and SNP to continue to back a Labour party committed to its own Brexit deal (whether achievable or not), drops of markedly, so we either have an early dissolution built into the deal or else Corbyn gets No Confidenced in turn.
Whichever way the marble rolls, I think we end up at 'General Election' sooner or later, and by next Spring by the latest.0 -
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=200 -
Just doing my bit for Yookay solidarity.david_herdson said:
Oh no he won'tTheuniondivvie said:
Smith'll get his century.Philip_Thompson said:Can @DavidL please comment on what a good innings Smith is having?
There ye go, ye can have that one for free from north o' the border..
0 -
Sarcasm aside, that is a fair description of one subset of Leavers. In fairness, there are other subsets.RobD said:
Damn, he's on to usrottenborough said:Pretty clear what the true Brexiteer agenda is now. As they all start calling for an ambassador who is pro-business and wants to get a quick and dirty trade deal done with Trump.
Get us out of Europe, away from that world of social safety net support, regulated markets and environmental protection, and into the US orbit, as a virtual off-shore state.
They will not rest until social and health protections are torn up, the jobs market completely deregulated, the welfare state reduced to american levels and everything privatised.
0 -
You can only become upper class by birth or arguably marriage, you can become upper middle class or rich by profession or career but not upper classTOPPING said:
Where did it all go wrong for you?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, the highest my family goes is landed gentry, Charles seems to be minor aristocracyTOPPING said:
Are you and Charles distant cousins?HYUFD said:
Born and raised, though with some French Huguenot ancestry a few centuries backTheScreamingEagles said:
Checks???HYUFD said:No, Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election, even if he leads Labour to Foot 1983 levels of MPs and loses seats to a Boris led Tory Party and the LDs as Comres predicts Corbynism now so dominates the party and membership from the NEC down it is hard to see it being replaced.
While Unite writes the checks and McCluskey still backs him.
Indeed the next centre left PM may come from the LDs not Labour, Umunna or even Swinson look more credible future PMs than Corbyn
Are you even British?0 -
Being attacked by the left and by the right - what it must be like to be a Jew.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Another excellent post and made me laugh and perfect last para.Andy_Cooke said:
Indeed.Nigelb said:
"The key variable is where we are on the curve..."Andy_Cooke said:I noticed some in the last thread using the Laffer Curve as an excuse to support their preconceptions rather than as an argument.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
Pretty well right, except there is no empirical evidence for the existence of such a thing.
One might posit the existence of numerous curves, for every different economy at different points in time - but as a useful predictor of economic responses to policy, such a thing just does not exist.
The two end points are fixed at 0 (outside of edge cases at 100% where the earner is constrained by authority or duty to work for free). We know that at all points other than the end points, the curve is above the line.
The shape of said curve could be a simple arc, or double peaked, or resemble the scribblings of a demented alcoholic. It could even bend back upon itself at places, for all we know. It may even be the case that going up and down don't come back to the same place, due to "stickiness."
Which means that relying on it as an argument-ending justification is usually fallacious, albeit pointing out cases where marginal rates are absurdly high or negligibly low can provide plausibility.0 -
Tory surge incoming! 32%!!HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20 0 -
Come on lads, show some confidence
I'm hopeful my uncle is able to watch this, he hasn't got long now and cricket was one of the great loves of his life. Lots of ex Warwickshire players from the 90s era know him well so a win for England at Edgbaston against the Aussies would be splendid today ^_^;;1 -
I see he's retweeting Katie Hopkins as well...glw said:Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.
0 -
Noted, thanks.HYUFD said:
You can only become upper class by birth or arguably marriage, you can become upper middle class or rich by profession or career but not upper classTOPPING said:
Where did it all go wrong for you?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, the highest my family goes is landed gentry, Charles seems to be minor aristocracyTOPPING said:
Are you and Charles distant cousins?HYUFD said:
Born and raised, though with some French Huguenot ancestry a few centuries backTheScreamingEagles said:
Checks???HYUFD said:No, Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election, even if he leads Labour to Foot 1983 levels of MPs and loses seats to a Boris led Tory Party and the LDs as Comres predicts Corbynism now so dominates the party and membership from the NEC down it is hard to see it being replaced.
While Unite writes the checks and McCluskey still backs him.
Indeed the next centre left PM may come from the LDs not Labour, Umunna or even Swinson look more credible future PMs than Corbyn
Are you even British?0 -
It is odd, its as if he's not playing the part of petulant child, he actually really is one. There's no grace or dignity to what he does. I'm not a Trump hater, I fully support he's right to be there, and he's not responsible for many of the things laid at his door, and deranged frothing responses to him, he's fu*ing hard to stand up for sometimes.glw said:Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.
0 -
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52, SNP 36, Plaid 3, Brexit Party 1, Greens 1AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Good afternoon, comrades.
I shall believe the chairman is a non-person the instant he has been removed from official party photographic records.0 -
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
We're England fans, we've been raised on failure, it is our default position to be pessimistic.Pulpstar said:Come on lads, show some confidence
I'm hopeful my uncle is able to watch this, he hasn't got long now and cricket was one of the great loves of his life. Lots of ex Warwickshire players from the 90s era know him well so a win for England at Edgbaston against the Aussies would be splendid today ^_^;;0 -
That's what it has always been, along with overcoming any concerted attempts to fight tax avoidance. But the rise of the far right and the Bannon-Dugin nexus has complicated things, and made their game even more, yes, treacherous.rottenborough said:Pretty clear what the true Brexiteer agenda is now. As they all start calling for an ambassador who is pro-business and wants to get a quick and dirty trade deal done with Trump.
Get us out of Europe, away from that world of social safety net support, regulated markets and environmental protection, and into the US orbit, as a virtual off-shore state.
They will not rest until social and health protections are torn up, the jobs market completely deregulated, the welfare state reduced to american levels and everything privatised.
0 -
What a depressing cesspit:
https://twitter.com/NeworpK/status/11492095164725125130 -
I'm not even going to pretend to work in the next hour.0
-
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
Furthermore, even if one could calculate the exact 'sweet spot' for a tax - i.e the rate at which total revenue from it would be maximized - one would not necessarily want to set it there.Benpointer said:Indeed. Also worth pointing out that the Laffer curve has no known formula - no one knows where the peak is.
Examples -
Raising so much tax that we get public affluence, private squalor.
Tax on vices - if they raise a lot they are failing. Ideally they should raise zero.0 -
It tends to be true that the 'optimal' rate in terms of maximising revenue is well above what might be an optimal rate for the longer term health of the economy (amongst other things).matt said:@Nigelb et al
“Beyond that, the idea that there is any theoretical curve which is useful as a predictive toll is simply nonsense for the rhetorical use of right wing politicians.”
The equivalent for left wing politicans is claiming that any tax increase will automatically increase tax take without considering behavioural changes. They’re politicians, it’s what they do - partial truths are a stock in trade. Although outright lying now seems very popular.
Which is another reason "the Laffer Curve" is such a crap basis for arguing for lower tax rates.0 -
Con down 24 points.HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Lab down 1 point.
From a position where the Tories ended up seriously bricking it on the night and losing their majority to become all-but-impotent.
And your takeaway point is Labour being down one point...0 -
Who would have thought at the end of the NZ innings yesterday that 239 was going to be the biggest semi final score?0
-
I share your despairCyclefree said:Let’s see:-
1. Ambassador forced out of job despite doing nothing wrong and left unsupported by likely next PM.
2. Staff working in complaints unit of Labour Party put under intolerable stress, bullied and intimidated.
3. Staff working for MPs bullied and sexually harassed and assaulted - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/investigation-uncovers-litany-of-bullying-and-assaults-by-mps-xgpgp3m3c
What wonderful role models we have.0 -
Labour down 15% on 2017 v Boris with Comres, Tories only down 10%Andy_Cooke said:
Con down 24 points.HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Lab down 1 point.
From a position where the Tories ended up seriously bricking it on the night and losing their majority to become all-but-impotent.
And your takeaway point is Labour being down one point...0 -
Surely the sensible way to explore polls is to look at trends. The past week or so has seen steady progress for the Tories with Labour easing back. Until this trend changes I'd say some form of Brexit could well win the day. But simply projecting one poll into a 'result' is pointlessIanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
With May or Hunt it would likely be the Tories largest party but LDs holding the balance of power and going to Labour this time rather than the Tories in return for EUref2 and maybe also demanding Corbyn's head as they demanded Brown's head in 2010 too as the price of their support.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 244
Clearly only Boris can win a majority for the Tories and for Brexit as Comres shows0 -
Combined Nats on 56 rather than 39 certainly looks more realistic.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
That wasn't the comparator originally being made.HYUFD said:
Labour down 15% on 2017 v Boris with Comres, Tories only down 10%Andy_Cooke said:
Con down 24 points.HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Lab down 1 point.
From a position where the Tories ended up seriously bricking it on the night and losing their majority to become all-but-impotent.
And your takeaway point is Labour being down one point...
Do you carry oil on you for the bearings on the goalposts to make them easier to wheel around?0 -
None of these comparisons really help - given the febrile state we in which we now find ourselves. The normal rules of engagement have long since been thrown out of the window.Andy_Cooke said:
That wasn't the comparator originally being made.HYUFD said:
Labour down 15% on 2017 v Boris with Comres, Tories only down 10%Andy_Cooke said:
Con down 24 points.HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Lab down 1 point.
From a position where the Tories ended up seriously bricking it on the night and losing their majority to become all-but-impotent.
And your takeaway point is Labour being down one point...
Do you carry oil on you for the bearings on the goalposts to make them easier to wheel around?0 -
They do fold up ones nowadays...very handy for shifting them....even the badgers could probably move them.Andy_Cooke said:
That wasn't the comparator originally being made.HYUFD said:
Labour down 15% on 2017 v Boris with Comres, Tories only down 10%Andy_Cooke said:
Con down 24 points.HYUFD said:
So Labour polling even lower than in 2017 when it still lost, all the movement to the Brexit Party, the LDs and Greens not Corbyn Labour.david_herdson said:
Just for reference, these are the changes in the polls since 19 April 2017 (the day on which the Dissolution Motion was carried in the Commons):HYUFD said:
Last time they were not losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Partykinabalu said:
I'm sure they will.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the thing that I do not know the answer to.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
(Average of ComRes/YouGov/Opinium - most recent 2019 vs first 3 after GE announcement 2017)
Con 24 (-24)
Lab 24 (-1)
BxP 21 (new)
LD 17 (+6)
Grn 7 (+4)
UKIP 1 (-7)
With Boris as Tory leader the Tories take a clear lead with Comres
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Lab down 1 point.
From a position where the Tories ended up seriously bricking it on the night and losing their majority to become all-but-impotent.
And your takeaway point is Labour being down one point...
Do you carry oil on you for the bearings on the goalposts to make them easier to wheel around?0 -
Tbf I did shade the SNP percentage up just a little to 3.25%, reflecting their currently strong performance in Scottish polls. So that can’t be read directly from the UK wide figures in the BMG.dixiedean said:
Combined Nats on 56 rather than 39 certainly looks more realistic.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
Another British talent gone abroad....
Barcelona have signed England Under-16 striker Louie Barry on a three-year contract from West Bromwich Albion.0 -
Fair enough. Also worth adding, if there is a LD/Green alliance, then PC are at present part of it. Which may be worth a few more in Wales.IanB2 said:
Tbf I did shade the SNP percentage up just a little to 3.25%, reflecting their currently strong performance in Scottish polls. So that can’t be read directly from the UK wide figures in the BMG.dixiedean said:
Combined Nats on 56 rather than 39 certainly looks more realistic.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
I know. It's beyond satire.glw said:Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.
I cannot for the life of me understand why so many are so sanguine about this individual being the President of the USA.
And as for those who support him? - especially here in the UK - well there is something sorely lacking there.1 -
He is clearly mentally unwell imho.notme2 said:
It is odd, its as if he's not playing the part of petulant child, he actually really is one. There's no grace or dignity to what he does. I'm not a Trump hater, I fully support he's right to be there, and he's not responsible for many of the things laid at his door, and deranged frothing responses to him, he's fu*ing hard to stand up for sometimes.glw said:Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.
God help us all.0 -
0
-
But try explaining that to those who barley watch a news report and get everything from the daily mail. They look at you as if you are demented. They don’t understand tax havens or have a clue about Deregulation.Mango said:
That's what it has always been, along with overcoming any concerted attempts to fight tax avoidance. But the rise of the far right and the Bannon-Dugin nexus has complicated things, and made their game even more, yes, treacherous.rottenborough said:Pretty clear what the true Brexiteer agenda is now. As they all start calling for an ambassador who is pro-business and wants to get a quick and dirty trade deal done with Trump.
Get us out of Europe, away from that world of social safety net support, regulated markets and environmental protection, and into the US orbit, as a virtual off-shore state.
They will not rest until social and health protections are torn up, the jobs market completely deregulated, the welfare state reduced to american levels and everything privatised.0 -
It might be a bit of a bubble but the US stock market has done very well under Trump.0
-
Instead of cherry picking individual polls, (that also include hypothetical PMs) can we have an aggregate with a weighting, kinda like how 538 do their polls?2
-
What about Brexit? Won't he be deported in November?FrancisUrquhart said:Another British talent gone abroad....
Barcelona have signed England Under-16 striker Louie Barry on a three-year contract from West Bromwich Albion.0 -
If you'd told me during series 3 of the apprentice that US President Trump would be retweeting (was that a thing in 2007?) Katie Hopkins in 2019, I would not have believed you.rottenborough said:I see The Donald has retweeted this:
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/11490176412118261880 -
There is nothing we (as members here) can do to get rid of him.kinabalu said:
I know. It's beyond satire.glw said:Trump's morning tweets today are particularly unhinged even by his standards. If he was a relative you would be about to stage an intervention.
I cannot for the life of me understand why so many are so sanguine about this individual being the President of the USA.
And as for those who support him? - especially here in the UK - well there is something sorely lacking there.
The Dems aren't pushing for impeachment - as it suits them to have him there to rail against.
So if those in the US who could act to remove him aren't doing so, what choice is there but to accept the situation for what it is and cope with it?0 -
The SNP are not on much more than the 38% they got in 2017 in current polls, still well below the 50% they got in 2015IanB2 said:
Tbf I did shade the SNP percentage up just a little to 3.25%, reflecting their currently strong performance in Scottish polls. So that can’t be read directly from the UK wide figures in the BMG.dixiedean said:
Combined Nats on 56 rather than 39 certainly looks more realistic.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
Incredibly, the Jezza outriders can go lower:
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/11493028001338286110 -
Though I suspect they would both prefer Farage in Number 10 even more than Boris but yes the alt right alliance is globalrottenborough said:I see The Donald has retweeted this:
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/11490176412118261880 -
May she also be alive to see the new Nuremberg trials. But not all of them.rottenborough said:I see The Donald has retweeted this:
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/11490176412118261880 -
The outriders for Magic Grandpa contain some really nasty individuals...rottenborough said:Incredibly, the Jezza outriders can go lower:
twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/11493028001338286110 -
-
A big subject today at the White House Social Media Summit will be the tremendous dishonesty, bias, discrimination and suppression...
Sounds a fair description of the White House every day.0 -
Pure Leninism or Stalinism basically. If you are ill, vulnerable, poor etc etc they will stand up for you, but the moment you question the right of the Party to have complete control of your life and the state, you are dead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The outriders for Magic Grandpa contain some really nasty individuals...rottenborough said:Incredibly, the Jezza outriders can go lower:
twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/11493028001338286110 -
Labour antisemitism: 30 whistleblowers to give evidence to EHRC
More than 30 whistleblowers including current Labour members of staff will submit evidence to the equalities watchdog about antisemitism in the party, the Guardian understands.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jul/11/labour-antisemitism-30-whistleblowers-to-give-evidence-to-ehrc0 -
I'm not suggesting we can get rid of him. That is for the American public to do next year.oxfordsimon said:There is nothing we (as members here) can do to get rid of him.
The Dems aren't pushing for impeachment - as it suits them to have him there to rail against.
So if those in the US who could act to remove him aren't doing so, what choice is there but to accept the situation for what it is and cope with it?
However, I see value in consistently slagging him off as opposed to a shrug and a 'c'est la vie' - because that is to normalize things which should not be normalized.0 -
The Nazgûl.FrancisUrquhart said:
The outriders for Magic Grandpa contain some really nasty individuals...rottenborough said:Incredibly, the Jezza outriders can go lower:
twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/11493028001338286110 -
Imagine if they ever get the levers of power....rather than just a tw@tter account.rottenborough said:
Pure Leninism or Stalinism basically. If you are ill, vulnerable, poor etc etc they will stand up for you, but the moment you question the right of the Party to have complete control of your life and the state, you are dead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The outriders for Magic Grandpa contain some really nasty individuals...rottenborough said:Incredibly, the Jezza outriders can go lower:
twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/11493028001338286110 -
How on earth are they going to get him out without civil disorder?HYUFD said:0 -
Its a good job he isn't an Unstable Genius ;-)rottenborough said:
How on earth are they going to get him out without civil disorder?HYUFD said:0 -
I don't see the point in wasting energy on constantly attacking someone or something that won't see your attacks and would ignore them if they did.kinabalu said:
I'm not suggesting we can get rid of him. That is for the American public to do next year.oxfordsimon said:There is nothing we (as members here) can do to get rid of him.
The Dems aren't pushing for impeachment - as it suits them to have him there to rail against.
So if those in the US who could act to remove him aren't doing so, what choice is there but to accept the situation for what it is and cope with it?
However, I see value in consistently slagging him off as opposed to a shrug and a 'c'est la vie' - because that is to normalize things which should not be normalized.
Better to focus on what you can change - at least that is how I view things.
It is why I saw no point in the protests outside Blenheim when Trump visited - he was never going to pay attention. It might make the protesters feel better inside but it won't change a thing.
Everyone has the right to protest, rant, rail against whatever they like (within the law) but that isn't my way of operating.0 -
Today's twitter follow : @AlfredENeuman990
-
A very stable genius, or just had a bit too much orange squash?HYUFD said:
An Boris wants to kiss his arse.0 -
Why?Pulpstar said:Today's twitter follow : @AlfredENeuman99
0 -
https://twitter.com/conorduffy_7/status/1149282190792036352FrancisUrquhart said:
Why?Pulpstar said:Today's twitter follow : @AlfredENeuman99
0 -
There is quite a lot of evidence that he regards the stock market as some sort of manifestation of USA plc. If the Stock Market is doing well so is the US. If not policy changes are needed.Pulpstar said:It might be a bit of a bubble but the US stock market has done very well under Trump.
0 -
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.williamglenn said:I see he's retweeting Katie Hopkins as well...
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.0 -
I can't help but feel that Alexander, Hannibal, or Caesar would've had more intelligent Twitter accounts.
"Alexander does not steal victory."
"We shall find a way, or make one."
"I came, I saw, I conquered."0 -
3.25% ex NI is about 40% in Scotland, so close enoughHYUFD said:
The SNP are not on much more than the 38% they got in 2017 in current polls, still well below the 50% they got in 2015IanB2 said:
Tbf I did shade the SNP percentage up just a little to 3.25%, reflecting their currently strong performance in Scottish polls. So that can’t be read directly from the UK wide figures in the BMG.dixiedean said:
Combined Nats on 56 rather than 39 certainly looks more realistic.IanB2 said:
Flavible - who I think are reasoning along the right lines, although I can’t vouch for their model, suggests Con 269, Lab 248, LD57 for the same poll result. With the Nationalists on 56, one Green, one BXP. Looks like the end of Brexit to me.justin124 said:
Big two parties back to 55% . Brexit party barely higher than UKIP in 2015.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 284, Labour 255, LDs 52AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
If you assume a Green/LibDem alliance, and allocate two thirds of the Green vote to the LibDems, the alliance gets 81, with the Tories 253 and Labour 2440 -
I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.0
-
Bloody hell Jason Roy....heart in mouth....0
-
In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.0 -
It's amazing the difference in how the anti semitism stuff runs and runs and sticks to Corbyn like glue yet the much bigger problem with the Tories and muslims gets barely a mention in compariosn. I would say its odd but it isn't. We really are colour blind as a nation when it comes to racism and prejudice. The Tories hating on predominantly Brown people is clearly an acceptable prejudice when neither should be.0
-
What can they usefully do, at the moment? If there is a need to strike, surely it will be after the EHRC reports, rather than a TV program?AlastairMeeks said:In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.0 -
Welcome... The 'dont blame me shirts' will soon be ready for us....Sean_F said:I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.
0 -
Its labour's response to it that has caused much more damage and Corbyn using a Spanish speaking decoy as he left his home was bizarreAlastairMeeks said:In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.0 -
At least there are some members who don't want their party to become a branch of Trump's regime.Sean_F said:I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.
0 -
-
Haven't the cult already decided the EHRC are run by the Zionists?AlastairMeeks said:In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.0 -
Not necessarily. Grieve doesn't want a GE. An election only gets triggered if there's no new govt that can be formed. I think that if a VoNC does carry in the autumn, those MPs voting for it know that they're effectively going to have to put Corbyn into No 10, for a while at least.TOPPING said:
Exquisite. So Grieve et al would have to take a view on BoJo's actions well before he had taken or not taken them. For ever more he will then plead that he was/wasn't about to do whatever it was plus the VONC-ers would have a hell of a task to convince waverers that BoJo was indeed definitely going to do/not do it.david_herdson said:
It would have to be done in the mini-session after the summer and before conference. Even then, it would produce an election *on* Oct 31 (if the Thursday convention is adhered to), unless the 2-week period is itself cut short by a Dissolution motion.TOPPING said:
analagously, at what point would calling a VONC be too late to stop us leaving on Oct 31?Richard_Nabavi said:One interesting question is what Labour would do if Boris were to ask for a GE at a time when the election campaigns (with parliament dissolved) would straddle October 31st.
The normal process from VoNC to polling day takes a little over 7 weeks, at the minimum.
Edit: = it's a mess!0 -
A QTWTAIN if ever I saw one.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
I've already got the t shirt that says 'BJ sucks'.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Welcome... The 'dont blame me shirts' will soon be ready for us....Sean_F said:I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.
0 -
If the USA (indeed the world) survives this, they will need to spend a lot of time fixing a constitution that has allowed someone who is dangerously ill and/or unhinged to become president.kinabalu said:
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.williamglenn said:I see he's retweeting Katie Hopkins as well...
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.
The 25th is supposed to be the way to deal with this, but it clearly doesn't work if the Cabinet are all place men and the rest of the governing party doesn't care.0
