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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on an early exit for Corbyn

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Sounds like he's feeling as bleak as I am:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1149320660377882624
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Whatever Roy gets fined of his match fee Bairstow should cover from his!

    Jeremy from Bristol

    Perhaps the team should institute a review box, along the lines of a swear box, but more expensive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Shame about Roy being cheated of a likely century, but that first six off Starc was an extraordinary shot which will live long in the memory.

    Though probably not in the coaching manual.

    The final six of Steve Smith was the shot for me. The Warwickshire staff say it is the first time anyone has ever hit the media centre.

    https://twitter.com/TheSportsman/status/1149333146200096768
    Good, but given the bowler...
    Hitting Starc like that was unbelievable.

    https://twitter.com/NickElliott91/status/1149322347612188672
    Beautiful
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    LauraK now reporting same news that less than half have voted in GOP Tory leadership election. CCHQ wont comment.

    Hunt still in with a chance?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Sounds like he's feeling as bleak as I am:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1149320660377882624

    Like most everyone in the Country with the odd exception, and they are no doubt odd !!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited July 2019

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris's tactic (which might work) is that because he is really, really serious about No Deal, moderate Labourites who love their country will fall in line and back the Deal without the UK Customs Union.

    However, the DUP will not vote for it (and have threatened to VoNC the party in government if they attempt it). And the ERG, sensing a No Deal exit if they vote against it, are hardly incentivized to vote for it.

    It therefore requires a lot of Labourites to defy a three line whip. Possible. But unlikely.

    So Boris's WA has been defeated in the Commons. He can now attempt to run the clock down to get No Deal. This may work. It may also lead to a VoNC followed by a temporary GoAFAE followed by an election. It may simply lead straight to an election.

    Simply, it's possible that Boris has thought this all through, and knows how to get Britain out the EU with a sensible deal on 31 October. It's also possible that he becomes the shortest serving British Prime Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    So you're admitting Boris Johnson is a liar?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjubxheN6ME&feature=youtu.be
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning

    Have you not seen Johnson's speech at the DUP conference where he denounces the Northern Ireland component of the backstop?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjubxheN6ME
    Well he still needs the DUP to govern now.

    He will not campaign for the backstop, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide, they will almost certainly vote for the backstop, problem solved.

    If Northern Ireland voters oppose the backstop that is the EU's problem, not Boris'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove ndum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    So you're admitting Boris Johnson is a liar?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjubxheN6ME&feature=youtu.be
    No, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide.

    In all likelihood after an autumn general election Sinn Fein and the Alliance combined will have more MPs and votes than the DUP in Northern Ireland anyway

  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    I thought he was guaranteed to win a majority? You've been saying he was for 3 weeks...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    Cue the response....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    It's coming home, it's coming home, IT'S BLOODY WELL COMING HOME, CRICKET'S COMING HOME
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited July 2019
    Looks like Australia want this over with and retire to the pavilion to lick their wounds
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    .

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris's tactic (which might work) is that because he is really, really serious about No Deal, moderate Labourites who love their country will fall in line and back the Deal without the UK Customs Union.

    However, the DUP will not vote for it (and have threatened to VoNC the party in government if they attempt it). And the ERG, sensing a No Deal exit if they vote against it, are hardly incentivized to vote for it.

    It therefore requires a lot of Labourites to defy a three line whip. Possible. But unlikely.

    So Boris's WA has been defeated in the Commons. He can now attempt to run the clock down to get No Deal. This may work. It may also lead to a VoNC followed by a temporary GoAFAE followed by an election. It may simply lead straight to an election.

    Simply, it's possible that Boris has thought this all through, and knows how to get Britain out the EU with a sensible deal on 31 October. It's also possible that he becomes the shortest serving British Prime Minister.
    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    But what comes afterwards is an issue for the rest of us.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Looks like Australia want this over with and retire to the pavilion to lick their wounds

    Smith should try another over, then.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.

    He might even reach 30% now then!!
    Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
    No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too.
    Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.

    However you are Labour anyway
    How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
    Boris won the Brexit vote, Boris can therefore deliver Brexit
    That's the only consolation. Once he's run into reality and either failed to deliver Brexit or delivered it and trashed the economy - there will be nobody else to blame. If Hunt did the same, it could be because he didn't 'believe' enough.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Agreed.

    And Boris's error has been promising everything to everyone.

    Churchill promised blood, sweat and tears.

    Boris promises nothing but sunlit uplands.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    edited July 2019

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    I guess that is because the Tory :Party membership database is inaccurate, they have sent ballot ;papers to a lot of people who are dead, have moved, lost interest etc. Our new PM could well be elected by less than 50,000 people.
    Theresa May was reelected prime minister with less than 50,000 votes. 37,718 votes t be exact.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    England would be heading for 429 according to Duckworth Lewis :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    I've just posted off a ballot for Jeremy Hunt.

    He might even reach 30% now then!!
    Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
    No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too.
    Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.

    However you are Labour anyway
    How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
    Boris won the Brexit vote, Boris can therefore deliver Brexit
    That's the only consolation. Once he's run into reality and either failed to deliver Brexit or delivered it and trashed the economy - there will be nobody else to blame. If Hunt did the same, it could be because he didn't 'believe' enough.
    Yes, there is a certain justice coming his way. But he will bluster and bluff and end up living in America as our next but one ambassador, or being paid a fortune to write books about Shakespeare.

    Meanwhile, Ulster may well still be burning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    They won't so it won't be an issue.

    At most if Boris wins a majority by n that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
    "Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
    No, it can be done in an afternoon
    Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.

    With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Pulpstar said:

    England would be heading for 429 according to Duckworth Lewis :p

    Don't forget Professor Steve Stern.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    The GOPification of the Conservative Party is also evidenced by its extreme partisanship under Cameron, including the attempted gerrymandering around the seat reduction, the explosion of peers, even the denial of the IMF job to Gordon Brown. Again it is the notion that usual niceties of our unwritten constitution do not matter.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    I hope you mean that he'll be out after one term - and not the other interpretation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    Nor will it be for Trump. If he wins a 2nd he will change the rules with GOP conniving and go for third.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Or we just don't believe your hysteria.

    Given your side are the boy who cried wolf it's hardly a surprise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Boris's tactic (which might work) is that because he is really, really serious about No Deal, moderate Labourites who love their country will fall in line and back the Deal without the UK Customs Union.

    However, the DUP will not vote for it (and have threatened to VoNC the party in government if they attempt it). And the ERG, sensing a No Deal exit if they vote against it, are hardly incentivized to vote for it.

    It therefore requires a lot of Labourites to defy a three line whip. Possible. But unlikely.

    So Boris's WA has been defeated in the Commons. He can now attempt to run the clock down to get No Deal. This may work. It may also lead to a VoNC followed by a temporary GoAFAE followed by an election. It may simply lead straight to an election.

    Simply, it's possible that Boris has thought this all through, and knows how to get Britain out the EU with a sensible deal on 31 October. It's also possible that he becomes the shortest serving British Prime Minister.

    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.
    This is grotesque revisionism. May kept no deal on the table right to the end, which is why parliament went to such lengths to stop it in the final weeks.

    Remember this article?

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    Got to hope Bairstow is fit for the final, otherwise it is England one wicket down for 10 straight out of the gate as Vince hits a lovely 4, followed by missing a straight one...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    England would be heading for 429 according to Duckworth Lewis :p

    Don't forget Professor Steve Stern.
    The tables aren't available for that. Likely it would be slightly higher.

    Anyway my prediction of 30 overs won't be far wrong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Brexit. Pure Brexit, trumps everything. Peace in Ulster included.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    DavidL said:



    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    She was just trying to honour the Vote Leave campaign pledge.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    edited July 2019

    Got to hope Bairstow is fit for the final, otherwise it is England one wicket down for 10 straight out of the gate as Vince hits a lovely 4, followed by missing a straight one...

    Suggested that Moeen would open instead. Which, while far from ideal, would probably be better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Nigelb said:

    Got to hope Bairstow is fit for the final, otherwise it is England one wicket down for 10 straight out of the gate as Vince hits a lovely 4, followed by missing a straight one...

    Suggested that Moeen would open instead. Which, while far from ideal, would probably be better.
    In that case it will be 20/1, after Ali hits 2 or 3 lovely drives, then plays a lazy shot and gets out...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    School terms ?? .... :smile:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    algarkirk said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
    "Without real consent"

    Did we stop having general elections in the 1973 - 2016 period then?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Or we just don't believe your hysteria.

    Given your side are the boy who cried wolf it's hardly a surprise.
    It's not that you don't believe your opponents. It's that you deliberately don't even want to think about any consequences.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    Nor will it be for Trump. If he wins a 2nd he will change the rules with GOP conniving and go for third.
    He'll need to change the constitution to do that. There needs to be a new amendment annulling the 22nd amendment, requiring two-thirds majority in both houses. That aint goinna happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Time to top up on Hunt?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Nope, and the vast majority of Tory members I know have voted too.

    https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1149210110666977286?s=20

    No polling evidence from Kuenssberg or CCHQ quote and Yougov had Boris even further ahead than ConHome
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Time to top up on Hunt?
    Maybe lay to back Boris.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    He must read PB. Some of us have been saying this for some time - that the particular form of Brexit the Tories have latched onto is a profoundly unconservative act. A revolutionary act, in fact.

    And it's worse than turning into the GOP. At least in the US there is a written Constitution and a two-term limit for the President and a free press protected in law. We have none of these things.
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the two term limit won't be an issue for Boris.
    School terms ?? .... :smile:
    :relieved:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Brilliant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    If England had the 50 overs, we might be looking at 400+ total against the cheating convicts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Or we just don't believe your hysteria.

    Given your side are the boy who cried wolf it's hardly a surprise.
    It's not that you don't believe your opponents. It's that you deliberately don't even want to think about any consequences.
    I think the consequences will be quite negligible if not positive like they have been every time we were warned by Europhiles previously that the sky was falling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Sir Donald Bradman, Jeff Thompson, Alan Border, Dame Nellie Melba, Olivia Newton John, your boys...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Pulpstar said:

    England would be heading for 429 according to Duckworth Lewis :p

    I thought that in the second innings the target is an input into DL. If so, this is clearly not actually a DL prediction. Which makes sense. England are (now were) only so far ahead as winning the run chase after 25 overs was as good as inevitable and the pressure is off (both teams).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Or we just don't believe your hysteria.

    Given your side are the boy who cried wolf it's hardly a surprise.
    It's not that you don't believe your opponents. It's that you deliberately don't even want to think about any consequences.
    I think the consequences will be quite negligible if not positive like they have been every time we were warned by Europhiles previously that the sky was falling.
    Which reply rather makes my point for me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Solidarity for Kim Darroch from the German Ambassador to the US.
    https://twitter.com/GermanAmbUSA/status/1149309677546684416
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Must say I am bemused by that. At Lords England were not in the game. What a difference a Roy makes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.

    Yes, that was a point I made last night. To make it even worse for Labour, I'd have thought that the party's reaction to the Panorama programme will itself become part of the EHRC investigation, because it provides further evidence (if any were needed) that the party is neither taking the issue seriously nor has robust procedures to deal with it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Nigelb said:

    Sir Donald Bradman, Jeff Thompson, Alan Border, Dame Nellie Melba, Olivia Newton John, your boys...

    you left out Dame Edna
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
    "Without real consent"

    Did we stop having general elections in the 1973 - 2016 period then?
    Effectively yes.

    Considering the Labour manifesto for the General Election in 2005 said that Lisbon Treaty (then constitution) wouldn't be ratified without a referendum first, then it irreversibly was. Simply kicking out Labour in 2010 wasn't sufficient to undo their duplicity.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    Must say I am bemused by that. At Lords England were not in the game. What a difference a Roy makes.

    Once again it's the batsmen getting the credit, when the bowlers in the first spell set the game up.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    "
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.

    He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP
    Optimism is great but unfortunately reality tends never to produce the results we want. The Tories will go backwards in a GE. If May was dreadful in a GE can you imagine Boris navigating all the press confrences, media events without slipping up? The Tories are heading for a bruising in any GE. The Tories are likley to lose seats to the SNP and LD, the Labour party will likley keep most of the seats marginally Labour in a GE. I cannot see the Tories just leaving the LD and SNP to take seats without a fight and so resources will be used to retain seats rather than gain Labour ones IMO. I keep telling you the 70 seat rule but you persist in niave fantasy!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse does not veto it anyway
    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    "
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins s aides were planning
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will rary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP
    Optimism is great but unfortunately reality tends never to produce the results we want. The Tories will go backwards in a GE. If May was dreadful in a GE can you imagine Boris navigating all the press confrences, media events without slipping up? The Tories are heading for a bruising in any GE. The Tories are likley to lose seats to the SNP and LD, the Labour party will likley keep most of the seats marginally Labour in a GE. I cannot see the Tories just leaving the LD and SNP to take seats without a fight and so resources will be used to retain seats rather than gain Labour ones IMO. I keep telling you the 70 seat rule but you persist in niave fantasy!
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    Wrong. Tory majority 36 under Boris with Comres

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Must say I am bemused by that. At Lords England were not in the game. What a difference a Roy makes.

    Once again it's the batsmen getting the credit, when the bowlers in the first spell set the game up.
    Woakes got MotM. Suspect Roy’s dissent played a part in that
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
    "Without real consent"

    Did we stop having general elections in the 1973 - 2016 period then?
    This doesn't quite hit the point on the head. People noticed other nations having referenda as well as elections over EU and sovereignty issues, and noticed that this was being incorporated into UK practice over a number of things touching constitutional and sovereignty change. If elections had been a decent guide to opinion Remain would have won an overwhelming majority. Personally I am becoming pretty neutral about the outcome as we have reached the point where ordinary competence, if available, would be the most desirable thing to have in government.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, most humiliating Aussie defeat since the Emu War?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:


    It’s a tricky hand right enough but having no deal in the options is essential and removing that was one of Mays more notable mistakes in a crowded field.

    Having no deal as an option is like having self-amputation without anaesthetic as an option.

    The casual glee with which Leavers are willing to inflict chaos and potential very serious harm on the country is mindblowing.
    Or we just don't believe your hysteria.

    Given your side are the boy who cried wolf it's hardly a surprise.
    It's not that you don't believe your opponents. It's that you deliberately don't even want to think about any consequences.
    I think the consequences will be quite negligible if not positive like they have been every time we were warned by Europhiles previously that the sky was falling.
    I find comments like this staggering. There's no analysis. There's no actual thought about the impact on the UK of imposition of tariffs. There's no measuring of the impact of dropping out of tax treaties. There's no question about what happens at borders and ports, and the rights of Brits in the EU (or vice-versa).

    Instead, because Europhiles warned us of bad things in the past, and they didn't happen, then No Deal will be "negligible if not positive".

    At the very least, there will be less trade betwee the EU and the UK. That seems an absolute given. (And ignores any other impacts.) As UK firms would not enter into this trade unless it was in their interests to do so, then any dimuntion must affect the UK negatively.

    I have ridiculed people who said there might be medicine or food shortages. But the idea that there will be no impact of having tariffs slapped on around half our exports is laughable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    "
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP
    Optimism is great but unfortunately reality tends never to produce the results we want. The Tories will go backwards in a GE. If May was dreadful in a GE can you imagine Boris navigating all the press confrences, media events without slipping up? The Tories are heading for a bruising in any GE. The Tories are likley to lose seats to the SNP and LD, the Labour party will likley keep most of the seats marginally Labour in a GE. I cannot see the Tories just leaving the LD and SNP to take seats without a fight and so resources will be used to retain seats rather than gain Labour ones IMO. I keep telling you the 70 seat rule but you persist in niave fantasy!
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    Tory majority 36 under Boris
    lol - you are incorrigible!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, cheers for the heads up.

    Bit weird how Channel 4 has a better sports lineup than the BBC, which has frittered away everything except the conveniently proximate Wimbledon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    That doesn't work. Once we have left the EU we can't have the Withdrawal Agreement because we become a third party, and treaties between us and the EU require a significantly more tortuous process.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    Mr. Eagles, cheers for the heads up.

    Bit weird how Channel 4 has a better sports lineup than the BBC, which has frittered away everything except the conveniently proximate Wimbledon.

    My mistake, the Grand Prix will still be on Channel 4, but less time before and after the race.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    If he has a majority, why can you not say whether it will be with a deal or without? If we leave with no deal then the treaties will cease to apply. The WA can't be passed retrospectively.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Eagles, most humiliating Aussie defeat since the Emu War?

    Mr Dancer you beat me to the analogy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, ah, ok.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    There probably are some undecideds. But it is more likely that a lot of the Conservative Party Membership database are now too dead to vote.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    That doesn't work. Once we have left the EU we can't have the Withdrawal Agreement because we become a third party, and treaties between us and the EU require a significantly more tortuous process.
    @rcs1000 is correct, @hufyd. Leaving with no deal resets the clock.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019

    The GOPification of the Conservative Party is also evidenced by its extreme partisanship under Cameron, including the attempted gerrymandering around the seat reduction, the explosion of peers, even the denial of the IMF job to Gordon Brown. Again it is the notion that usual niceties of our unwritten constitution do not matter.

    How can you write such unmitigated garbage? The 'gerrymandering' was an attempt to bring the electoral boundaries up to date and get rid of the disgraceful anomaly which gives votes in the North East and Wales an absurdly disproportionate number of MPs. The 'explosion' of peers was to correct an historical imbalance, and in any case was hardly anything new, since you are comparing with the 'usual niceties of our unwritten constitution. And as for Gordon Brown: since he was a prize numpty who had trashed the stability of the UK banking system and run the economy into a completely unnecessary debt crisis, I should jolly well hope he'd be blocked from the IMF. If Cameron has blocked Darling from such a role you might have a point, but not about Brown.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    That doesn't work. Once we have left the EU we can't have the Withdrawal Agreement because we become a third party, and treaties between us and the EU require a significantly more tortuous process.
    @rcs1000 is correct, @hufyd. Leaving with no deal resets the clock.
    Please don't let facts destroy hufyd's unicorn utopia No Deal Brexit..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Jim, it was a fun thing to learn about, though I forget which Youtube channel it was where I discovered the Emu War.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.

    So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:

    "Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
    "
    But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
    There’s the small detail of the DUP being the government’s majority.
    I said 'if he wins a majority.'

    Boris needs to win an early autumn general election with a majority, then he will grow the DUP under a bus
    Boris also promised no election.
    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP
    Optimism is great but unfortunately reality tends never to produce the results we want. The Tories will go backwards in a GE. If May was dreadful in a GE can you imagine Boris navigating all the press confrences, media events without slipping up? The Tories are heading for a bruising in any GE. The Tories are likley to lose seats to the SNP and LD, the Labour party will likley keep most of the seats marginally Labour in a GE. I cannot see the Tories just leaving the LD and SNP to take seats without a fight and so resources will be used to retain seats rather than gain Labour ones IMO. I keep telling you the 70 seat rule but you persist in niave fantasy!
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    Tory majority 36 under Boris
    lol - you are incorrigible!
    Not really. He is a zealot and is heading for an embarrassing loss of face
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    Any no deal is temporary.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    There probably are some undecideds. But it is more likely that a lot of the Conservative Party Membership database are now too dead to vote.
    I think the database is pretty good now.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Jim, it was a fun thing to learn about, though I forget which Youtube channel it was where I discovered the Emu War.

    Only the Aussies could go up against a load of large flightless birds and lose.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
    "Without real consent"

    Did we stop having general elections in the 1973 - 2016 period then?
    Effectively yes.

    Considering the Labour manifesto for the General Election in 2005 said that Lisbon Treaty (then constitution) wouldn't be ratified without a referendum first, then it irreversibly was. Simply kicking out Labour in 2010 wasn't sufficient to undo their duplicity.
    Staggering. According to you we "effectively stopped" having General Elections over a 43 year period.

    I need to have a lie down. I'm feeling, retrospectively, oppressed.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited July 2019

    There probably are some undecideds. But it is more likely that a lot of the Conservative Party Membership database are now too dead to vote.
    Maybe people dont like Boris and Hunt, so they are not bothering? Some will have died but I doubt huge numbers will have moved as people dont tend to move as they get older unless they have to move or have no roots in an area. Membership of a local association tends to imply having roots in an area imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Boris might find the House of Commons quite a lonely place as leader, when it appears that the only mate prepared to speak up for him is Peter Bone...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/11/tory-mps-condemn-boris-johnson-over-kim-darroch-resignation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    If he has a majority, why can you not say whether it will be with a deal or without? If we leave with no deal then the treaties will cease to apply. The WA can't be passed retrospectively.
    The Withdrawal Agreement simply tidied up citizens' rights, the exit Bill and NI border to enable FTA talks to start, of course it can be passed even during a No Deal period
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Wishful thinking I suspect...
  • There probably are some undecideds. But it is more likely that a lot of the Conservative Party Membership database are now too dead to vote.
    Maybe people dont like Boris and Hunt, so they are not bothering? Some will have died but I doubt huge numbers will have moved as people dont tend to move as they get older unless they have to move or have no roots in an area. Membership of a local association tends to imply having roots in an area imo.
    Could just be that a lot of ballots are in transit and will turn up at Con HQ, tomorrow and Monday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    That doesn't work. Once we have left the EU we can't have the Withdrawal Agreement because we become a third party, and treaties between us and the EU require a significantly more tortuous process.
    The Withdrawal Agreement is merely a precursor to FTA talks, nothing more
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the debate he said 'in the forthcoming election' he will either call it for September or Grieve, Stewart, Lee etc back the opposition and VONC him anyway.

    With a majority after that election he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement he voted for at MV3 minus the temporary Customs Union for GB and ignore the DUP

    Is he going to extend article 50 in order to facilitate the election??
    No, it will be held by October 31st.

    If he wins a majority we will leave Deal or No Deal then, even a temporary No Deal before the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
    If he has a majority, why can you not say whether it will be with a deal or without? If we leave with no deal then the treaties will cease to apply. The WA can't be passed retrospectively.
    The Withdrawal Agreement simply tidied up citizens' rights, the exit Bill and NI border to enable FTA talks to start, of course it can be passed even during a No Deal period
    But the Withdrawal Agreement starts with us in the EU - if we have left the EU the starting point doesn't exist so everything becomes so much more complex..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Conservative party is morphing into the GOP before our eyes:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653

    Yes, that's what happens when a large group of people feel, with reason, that powers and independence which they value has been eroded without consent, that parliament has overlooked the importance of getting real consent before sharing and pooling its sovereignty bit by bit and thus limiting its own powers. Then, when we have decided to take those powers back it is obvious that large numbers of people intend to stop it happening by any means they can. The sources of this crisis lie well in the past and cannot be quickly sorted. Both sides are prepared to use any tactics to get their way.

    Yes it is all very unConservative, but these sorts of spats are now inevitable.
    "Without real consent"

    Did we stop having general elections in the 1973 - 2016 period then?
    Effectively yes.

    Considering the Labour manifesto for the General Election in 2005 said that Lisbon Treaty (then constitution) wouldn't be ratified without a referendum first, then it irreversibly was. Simply kicking out Labour in 2010 wasn't sufficient to undo their duplicity.
    Staggering. According to you we "effectively stopped" having General Elections over a 43 year period.

    I need to have a lie down. I'm feeling, retrospectively, oppressed.
    I'm saying if at an election a party promises one thing then irreversibly changes things to do the complete opposite of what they said at the election then there was no consent.

    Had manifesto commitments been honoured there would have been no Lisbon Treaty (or it would have gone through after consent was given at a referendum).
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    I enjoyed today’s edition of an admittedly scurrilous celebrity gossip email.
This discussion has been closed.