politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday morning

Endillion said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Judging by the press this morning Corbyn could be gone before the Autumn

Which makes an immediate election all the more likely, if the Conservatives think they’ll soon be facing someone who likes Jews and doesn’t always side with our enemies internationally.

That September election on Betfair is still value at 11.

I agree. I don't understand why it's rated so much less likely than October. I guess because a September election would require campaigning through August, but October just doesn't give enough time afterwards for anything meaningful to move on Brexit. Including No Deal preparation rampup. Not sure what implications this has on party conference season, or even if that matters (it probably shouldn't, but does).

The reason is the difficulty of calling it later this month, given the timescales built into the FTPA. Once we get to August everything packs up, and there isn't a politician in the land who doesn't need a holiday.

The best bet is to lay a 2022 election at 4 point something on BFE - that looks very likely to be a solid bet.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

If it were a Jonestown Brexit (where the Brexiteers drink the Kool Aid and the rest of us are unaffected) I could get on board with it. In fact I'd probably chip in for their one way tickets to Guyana myself. Sadly, we are all going to be in the compound when it goes up in flames.

Why is it that Remainers fall back on analogies involving death and violence?

Is it because they’re traitors?

Of course not.

Although, by historical standards, a leading politician talking to another country while the government was in the middle of negotiating a treaty would raise eyebrows

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

What do people even mean by 'satellite status'? The fact that living next door to a large power centre, it is likely to continue to be a big political topic for the foreseeable future? Stunning insight folks, welcome to the last 1000 years of our history.

Is that in any way less preferable than being in said bloc? The states of the former USSR don't seem to think so.

Exactly! Question for Leavers though. Remainers make the distinction between joint decision making and rule taking.

So how many times has the EU taken a decision which the UK supported and France and Germany opposed ?

The EU works on horse trading. Everyone gets a horse they want and allows the others to get their horse. Outside the EU presents a shopping list of demands from 27 different countries and trades this long list for access to its systems.

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

What particular things do you resent Germany and France imposing on the UK against our will?

Provide a list and we'll go through it.

But I see you're accepting that EU joint decision making is effectively France-Germany joint decision making.

Now that might be fine in practice but we should be open and acknowledge it for what it is.

Not really. If the UK largely agrees with France and Germany there is not an axis working against the UK.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters.

Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, 38% voted Tory, only 12% voted LD

You really are outing yourself as an idiot with your statements of opinion dressed up as facts. How does someone fall in love with a political figure so much to be so unquestioning? My prediction, which I can say with some certainty is that we will see you go through the five stages of grief when you realise the man you are in love with is even more hopeless as Prime Minister than many of us dare to think.

Hyufd has become a Boris fanatic and sees Boris as a Messiah

Boris is no Messiah and Hyufd is likely to become very disillusioned when he sees Boris has played him

To be fair, Big_G, he has got you yourself to move considerably from your original intention to resign rather than stay a member of a party he was leading, and it is only a day or two since you were contemplating actually voting for him.

Hunt created a serious issue for me and my family by supporting hunting which lost him my vote, and as I have a vote which I value, I was in the dreadful position of either voting for Boris against my conscience or spoiling my ballot paper.

I chose to write 'neither' on my ballot paper, as did my wife, but Hyufd had nothing to do with my struggle to come to terms with the dilemma

I note and respect your view on Hunt and hunting.

Fact remains, your position on Boris has softened considerably over recent weeks.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1147801912026259457

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sam Gyimah said on Sophy that upto 30 conservative mps are looking at ways of legislating against no deal, but will not support a vonc on the government. He said their objective is to open other options for the next PM

It does seem highly unlikely any conservative mps will join a vonc and why would they when in many cases it would end their careers and many of their colleagues

Did he say what other options that would open ?

He hinted at various legitimate attempts to stear away from proroguing parliament and no deal but was very clear he will not vonc the government

So he didn't state any options at all.

In other words he's full of crap, against everything and for nothing.

Quite, all anyone appears to be interested in doing is preventing (or delaying) certain courses of action, nobody is presenting a way forward. What we need is a hard deadline that nobody can move, forcing people to make a genuine "best available option" choice.

Unfortunately only the EU can force that (by categorically refusing any extension) but nobody seems to believe they will do that. Or by the time they do, it will be too late.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1147801912026259457

Any time we get these reports, especially considering MPs always overestimate who agrees with them, I'm surprised how small this bloc actually is.

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So how many times has the EU taken a decision which the UK supported and France and Germany opposed ?

The EU works on horse trading. Everyone gets a horse they want and allows the others to get their horse. Outside the EU presents a shopping list of demands from 27 different countries and trades this long list for access to its systems.

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters.

Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, 38% voted Tory, only 12% voted LD

You really are outing yourself as an idiot with your statements of opinion dressed up as facts. How does someone fall in love with a political figure so much to be so unquestioning? My prediction, which I can say with some certainty is that we will see you go through the five stages of grief when you realise the man you are in love with is even more hopeless as Prime Minister than many of us dare to think.

Hyufd has become a Boris fanatic and sees Boris as a Messiah

Boris is no Messiah and Hyufd is likely to become very disillusioned when he sees Boris has played him

To be fair, Big_G, he has got you yourself to move considerably from your original intention to resign rather than stay a member of a party he was leading, and it is only a day or two since you were contemplating actually voting for him.

Hunt created a serious issue for me and my family by supporting hunting which lost him my vote, and as I have a vote which I value, I was in the dreadful position of either voting for Boris against my conscience or spoiling my ballot paper.

I chose to write 'neither' on my ballot paper, as did my wife, but Hyufd had nothing to do with my struggle to come to terms with the dilemma

I note and respect your view on Hunt and hunting.

Fact remains, your position on Boris has softened considerably over recent weeks.

Not really

You're still about to resign?

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters.

Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, 38% voted Tory, only 12% voted LD

You really are outing yourself as an idiot with your statements of opinion dressed up as facts. How does someone fall in love with a political figure so much to be so unquestioning? My prediction, which I can say with some certainty is that we will see you go through the five stages of grief when you realise the man you are in love with is even more hopeless as Prime Minister than many of us dare to think.

Hyufd has become a Boris fanatic and sees Boris as a Messiah

Boris is no Messiah and Hyufd is likely to become very disillusioned when he sees Boris has played him

To be fair, Big_G, he has got you yourself to move considerably from your original intention to resign rather than stay a member of a party he was leading, and it is only a day or two since you were contemplating actually voting for him.

Hunt created a serious issue for me and my family by supporting hunting which lost him my vote, and as I have a vote which I value, I was in the dreadful position of either voting for Boris against my conscience or spoiling my ballot paper.

I chose to write 'neither' on my ballot paper, as did my wife, but Hyufd had nothing to do with my struggle to come to terms with the dilemma

I note and respect your view on Hunt and hunting.

Fact remains, your position on Boris has softened considerably over recent weeks.

Not really

You're still about to resign?

I will only resign if my party actually no deals

Yorkcity said:

bigjohnowls said:

PB Tories having a Trestle table sale

LAB: 25% (-1)
CON: 23% (+3)
BREX: 22% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 03 - 05 Jul
Chgs. w/ 20 Jun

Lib dem looks a bit high.

Greens will not poll well in LAB/CON marginals either.

I see the 2 polls this weekend are not getting discussed much

Cant be long till the next YG mind

We must be due the monthly ComRes poll within the next week. I expect they will repeat last month's supplementary VI question based on VI scenarios with the remaining choice of Conservative Party leaders, which revealed a 37% share with Johnson last month, compared to 23% in the standard VI poll.

It's important, not least in the context of this thread and the discussion below. There is some uncertainty at this point as to whether an assumption of Johnson becoming leader is starting to be priced in to the standard VI question responses, although personally I think that it isn't in the main. There is also the possibility that Johnson's aura will have suffered with the wider electorate over the past month, notwithstanding the YouGov evidence that his popularity over Hunt has held up with Conservative members. We also don't know whether the 37% figure was based on an outlier sample favourable to the Conservatives, although I think not because the standard ComRes VI question revealed a 4% Labour lead before the scenario of Johnson being leader was explicitly raised, the highest in any poll in June.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Some startling data from Ashcroft today. Would you have expected that Remain voters prefer Corbyn to Johnson by 2-1?

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf

https://us4.campaign-archive.com/?e=99cd3aa6df&u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=ce3ba015ee

(Edited: misread one of the findings)

Interesting numbers from Ashcroft's poll there on voting intention under Boris and Hunt.

If Boris is Tory leader he has it Tories 24.5%, Labour 20.7%, LDs 19.6%, Brexit Party 16.4%. So Tories ahead, Brexit Party fall back to 4th and Labour and LDs neck and neck for second.

With Hunt as Tory leader he has it Tories 22%%, Brexit Party 20.5%, Labour 19.9% and LDs 18.3%, so the Brexit Party second

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf.

If Hunt is Tory leader most Leavers vote Brexit Party, 43%, followed by 29.9% for the Tories and most Remainers vote LD 31.9% followed by 31.2% for Labour

With Boris as leader, the combined Conservative + Brexit Party vote goes down. He shrinks the pie.

Based on the Ashcroft poll with Boris as Leader the Tories are largest party on 265 with Electoral Calculus with Labour second on 216, with Hunt as leader the Labour party are largest party on 197 with the Tories and Brexit Party tied for second on 161 each.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=24.5&LAB=20.7&LIB=19.6&Brexit=16.4&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=19.9&LIB=18.3&Brexit=20.5&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

geoffw said:

Excellent piece this morning taking apart the forlorn pessimism of Ivan Rogers's doom-mongering.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/what-sir-ivan-rogers-gets-wrong-about-brexit/

I rolled my eyes when he started with the unhinged nonsense that Theresa May’s deal is Brexit In Name Only. The article deteriorated from there.

He sets out clearly why it is BINO.
The withdrawal agreement and the political declaration place us at the disposal of the EU, which safeguards its privileged access to our market (which it can also offer to others without our consent), keeps us indefinitely under EU jurisdiction directly applicable through UK courts, gives the EU the right to impose fines and trade sanctions and explicitly denies any recourse to international arbitration.

The author (and perhaps you?) is making the mistake that because satellite status is undesirable, it won't happen. Rogers deals with actual probabilities.

Likewise he claims May's Deal is Brexit In Name Only because it isn't the Brexit he wants.

Satellite status is BINO, is cavalier colonialism and has no place in the 21st century.

What do people even mean by 'satellite status'? The fact that living next door to a large power centre, it is likely to continue to be a big political topic for the foreseeable future? Stunning insight folks, welcome to the last 1000 years of our history.

Is that in any way less preferable than being in said bloc? The states of the former USSR don't seem to think so.

Absolutely agreed. Russia and the Soviet Union are an utter disaster zone and form Soviet nations being out of the Soviet Union and not being satellites are better off even if they are neighbours.

Indeed. I’m in Ukraine on holiday at the moment (visiting the out-laws), and there is notably increasing prosperity here, even since last year. Town squares are full of new restaurants and bars which are busy, there’s lots of new cars around rather than old Ladas, many more cranes etc. Only three or four years ago this place felt like a third world country, the positive change is quite amazing.

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So how many times has the EU taken a decision which the UK supported and France and Germany opposed ?

The EU works on horse trading. Everyone gets a horse they want and allows the others to get their horse. Outside the EU presents a shopping list of demands from 27 different countries and trades this long list for access to its systems.

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Why is "British" influence more important than whether the political system as a whole is responsive to your interests?

bigjohnowls said:

Yorkcity said:

bigjohnowls said:

PB Tories having a Trestle table sale

LAB: 25% (-1)
CON: 23% (+3)
BREX: 22% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 03 - 05 Jul
Chgs. w/ 20 Jun

Lib dem looks a bit high.

Greens will not poll well in LAB/CON marginals either.

I see the 2 polls this weekend are not getting discussed much

Cant be long till the next YG mind

Yes on Marr this morning they only quote the latest you gov.

kjh said:

Will the announcement of the result of the leadership election also include spoilt ballot papers. Going by the announcements of the Tories here it could be quite large, although the Tories here I suspect are not representative. Any views?

I should imagine so, given that each round so far has included the number of spoiled papers. In the past year, Conservative Party membership grew by a third. Unless all these entryists new members joined in order to vote for Rory Stewart, the number of spoiled ballots will be small enough.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Some startling data from Ashcroft today. Would you have expected that Remain voters prefer Corbyn to Johnson by 2-1?

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf

https://us4.campaign-archive.com/?e=99cd3aa6df&u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=ce3ba015ee

(Edited: misread one of the findings)

Interesting numbers from Ashcroft's poll there on voting intention under Boris and Hunt.

If Boris is Tory leader he has it Tories 24.5%, Labour 20.7%, LDs 19.6%, Brexit Party 16.4%. So Tories ahead, Brexit Party fall back to 4th and Labour and LDs neck and neck for second.

With Hunt as Tory leader he has it Tories 22%%, Brexit Party 20.5%, Labour 19.9% and LDs 18.3%, so the Brexit Party second

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf.

If Hunt is Tory leader most Leavers vote Brexit Party, 43%, followed by 29.9% for the Tories and most Remainers vote LD 31.9% followed by 31.2% for Labour

With Boris as leader, the combined Conservative + Brexit Party vote goes down. He shrinks the pie.

Based on the Ashcroft poll with Boris as Leader the Tories are largest party on 265 with Electoral Calculus with Labour second on 216, with Hunt as leader the Labour party are largest party on 197 with the Tories and Brexit Party tied for second on 161 each.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=24.5&LAB=20.7&LIB=19.6&Brexit=16.4&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=19.9&LIB=18.3&Brexit=20.5&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Both would see (most of) Labour, the LibDems, Green and Nationalists (about 350 MPs total) moving to extend and at least a further referendum.

DecrepitJohnL said:

williamglenn said:

Sajid Javid’s job application:

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1147796216333426689?s=21

The Saj can have whatever job he likes in return for not reminding the new prime minister that Boris (and Hunt) is committed to holding an official enquiry into Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.

Didn't Johnson already renege on that?

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So how many times has the EU taken a decision which the UK supported and France and Germany opposed ?

The EU works on horse trading. Everyone gets a horse they want and allows the others to get their horse. Outside the EU presents a shopping list of demands from 27 different countries and trades this long list for access to its systems.

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

What particular things do you resent Germany and France imposing on the UK against our will?

Provide a list and we'll go through it.

But I see you're accepting that EU joint decision making is effectively France-Germany joint decision making.

Now that might be fine in practice but we should be open and acknowledge it for what it is.

Not really. If the UK largely agrees with France and Germany there is not an axis working against the UK.

Who said there was ?

But what the EU is based on is a France-Germany alliance, an alliance that the UK foreign office has for decades fantasised is about to break.

Now it may be that that is an acceptable situation for the UK and better than what out own posturing politicians and self-satisfied Sir Humphreys could achieve themselves.

If so lets at least be open about it and admit that the UK has sod all influence within the EU rather than the posture-surrender-lie pretences of Blair and Cameron.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Some startling data from Ashcroft today. Would you have expected that Remain voters prefer Corbyn to Johnson by 2-1?

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf

https://us4.campaign-archive.com/?e=99cd3aa6df&u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=ce3ba015ee

(Edited: misread one of the findings)

Interesting numbers from Ashcroft's poll there on voting intention under Boris and Hunt.

If Boris is Tory leader he has it Tories 24.5%, Labour 20.7%, LDs 19.6%, Brexit Party 16.4%. So Tories ahead, Brexit Party fall back to 4th and Labour and LDs neck and neck for second.

With Hunt as Tory leader he has it Tories 22%%, Brexit Party 20.5%, Labour 19.9% and LDs 18.3%, so the Brexit Party second

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf.

If Hunt is Tory leader most Leavers vote Brexit Party, 43%, followed by 29.9% for the Tories and most Remainers vote LD 31.9% followed by 31.2% four

With Boris as leader, the combined Conservative + Brexit Party vote goes down. He shrinks the pie.

Based on the Ashcroft poll with Boris as Leader the Tories are largest party on 265 with Electoral Calculus with Labour second on 216, with Hunt as leader the Labour party are largest party on 197 with the Tories and Brexit Party tied for second on 161 each.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=24.5&LAB=20.7&LIB=19.6&Brexit=16.4&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=19.9&LIB=18.3&Brexit=20.5&Green=8&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Both would see (most of) Labour, the LibDems, Green and Nationalists (about 350 MPs total) moving to extend and at least a further referendum.

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement, given Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, even if the likeliest outcome is Tories largest party under Boris but a Labour, LD and SNP Government for EUref2.

Hunt however would be unable to win a majority and Labour would be the largest party but with Farage holding the balance of power and demanding No Deal as his price given he opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright or else Hunt forced to back EUref2 and a Corbyn minority government in order to keep out Farage

DecrepitJohnL said:

And given the Conservative Party is deliberately spinning out this process in order to take it up to the recess, who'd call for an extension? Labour?

Boris, if he wants an election.

I think a September election would be much easier for him than an October one, because in September he can still run on "renegotiation", whereas if you're voting in October it's pretty obvious the choices are going to be Extension or No Deal, which is a much more courageous thing to do.

I mean, that's obvious to *us* now, but the question is whether there's enough plausible deniability with the voters to avoid facing the choice too starkly in the campaign

MarqueeMark said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris can't call an election the day he walks into Downing Street because that will be the 24th and the Commons recess starts on the 25th. There is not the time to get it through parliament. Boris could start planning for an election then (and probably plans are already under way).

Not saying you're wrong but isn't it possible to extend the session a bit and keep Parliament hanging around long enough to vote for an election?

That could be Boris's first act. "So much to get to grips with, the last thing people want us to do is immediately swan off for the summer. So go back to your Committee Rooms and prepare for governent...."

Yep, one way or the other it’s quite possible to see the recess cancelled, severely curtailed or Parliament dissolved for an election.

MPs will get on with it of course, but more amusingly the Lobby journalists will go collectively nuts at having their holidays cancelled!

If nothing else, the election between the Jezziah and the Bossiah will be a right laugh. To historians fifty years in the future, if not us.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

McDonnell on Marr

'Not looking to reduce £350,000 inheritance tax relief'

I do not trust Boris at all and the same goes for McDonnell

It's £325k per person ... did he even get that wrong?

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement

Do you not see a contradiction between Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement and Boris winning back Brexit Party voters who think the Withdrawal Agreement is a betrayal?

Quite. It's a strategy that is much like all the plans on how to fool the EU which the EU is capable of reading about - MPs, members and supporters who despise the WA, or did not like it and are now happy they think we will get no deal or a better deal, are not going to notice that a whole bunch of other people are going around predicting Boris will come back with basically the WA and cast aside the spartans? To say nothing of Farage and BXP noticing?

Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 and the only way to deliver the Withdrawal Agreement is with a Tory majority and the only chance of delivering a Tory majority is with Boris as Ashcroft confirms today. Boris will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but would still pass the Withdrawal Agreement with a majority. Without an election and a majority he would go to No Deal as the last resort if still PM on October 31st.


Otherwise it is definitely No Deal with Farage or EUref2, BINO or revoke with Labour, the LDs and SNP

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement

Do you not see a contradiction between Boris passing the Withdrawal Agreement and Boris winning back Brexit Party voters who think the Withdrawal Agreement is a betrayal?

No, 16% of voters would still vote Brexit Party even with Boris on that poll, he can cut back the Brexit Party on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket but the No Deal hardliners ie at least 10%of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless.

However Boris can win a majority under FPTP if he cuts the Brexit Party back to that 10% and gets the Tories up to around 30% especially with Remainers split between LDs and Labour

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So how many times has the EU taken a decision which the UK supported and France and Germany opposed ?

The EU works on horse trading. Everyone gets a horse they EU presents a shopping list of demands from 27 different countries and trades this long list for access to its systems.

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Another UK demand is not having the EU army that Germany wanted. There are more examples.

In any case the point is not about UK influence on the EU; it's about UK influence on decisions that affect the UK. We won't formally have influence after we leave. Turning up to the meetings where the decisions affecting us are made and having a vote are the important differences.

Theuniondivvie said:

Boris's 'Churchill getting booed in East End' moment (in his head).

https://twitter.com/redalphababe/status/1147423350786002944

He is going to arrive at No 10 with Brown 2009 levels of hatred as just the start.

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Another UK demand is not having the EU army that Germany wanted. There are more examples.

In any case the point is not about UK influence on the EU; it's about UK influence on decisions that affect the UK. We won't formally have influence after we leave. Turning up to the meetings where the decisions affecting us are made and having a vote are the important differences.

Well the EU army is coming sooner or later, we all know that.

Though it will probably have more generals than tanks.

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Another UK demand is not having the EU army that Germany wanted. There are more examples.

In any case the point is not about UK influence on the EU; it's about UK influence on decisions that affect the UK. We won't formally have influence after we leave. Turning up to the meetings where the decisions affecting us are made and having a vote are the important differences.

Sitting in the meetings where the decisions are made is irrelevant, when the Eurozone members who have an absolute majority had another meeting the day before and decided which way to vote en bloc.

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

So in the EU we pay endless billions to get one horse in 27 - doesn't sound like a good deal to me. Especially since UK governments have been so willing to make concessions and get nothing in return.

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Another UK demand is not having the EU army that Germany wanted. There are more examples.

In any case the point is not about UK influence on the EU; it's about UK influence on decisions that affect the UK. We won't formally have influence after we leave. Turning up to the meetings where the decisions affecting us are made and having a vote are the important differences.

Well the EU army is coming sooner or later, we all know that.

Though it will probably have more generals than tanks.

The UK can no longer prevent it, that is certainly true.

alex. said:

Zephyr said:

I’m not sure about this thread header Mr Screaming. What a terrible position for the Conservative party as a broad church today and going forward, if Boris and his policies in this contest is as broad the membership now are.

I am also suspicious of OGH previous thread, perhaps setting Boris up to then quickly knock him over. There are reasons Boris might not get polling bounce akin to historic comparisons

1. Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him?

2. Celebrity. Following on from above, he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown as prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.

3. There was something very iffy about the poll and its origins (The Daily Telegraph). ComRes may themselves be respectable as a pollster, but it is well know that the commissioners of polls can go a long way towards influencing their outcomes if they so wish (especially outside of the standard VI polling where the pollsters have a lot more control over the basic methodology). Oh and the fact that no other poll on the subject has come close to replicating its results.

I've no doubt that OGH doesn't give much credence to the poll (and will have said so previously on here), and agree that he was probably being mischievous in doing a thread about it (especially several weeks after it was published!), for other reasons.

Having said that though, I think there is a strong chance the reverse will actually happen. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. This is a fact isn’t it? The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited by Boris and crew isn’t it?

The clear lesson to us from 2016, Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit. Much like the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left still don’t appear to have learnt this lesson or show the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters back. Corbyn and cable have proved dire leadership choices for the right lessons learned, the decisions and fight back needed at this crucial time.

So Boris might not get much polling bounce, but PM Boris for 10-15 years, and very powerful half way through cannot be ruled out.

Sandpit said:

Sitting in the meetings where the decisions are made is irrelevant, when the Eurozone members who have an absolute majority had another meeting the day before and decided which way to vote en bloc.

Has this actually been happening? I mean, it's obviously a logical possibility, like a solid harmonious middle-eastern voting bloc at the UN consisting of Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Palestine, but in practice the Eurozone has been known to have some internal disagreements...

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Zephyr said:

HYUFD said:

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement, given Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, even if the likeliest outcome is Tories largest party under Boris but a Labour, LD and SNP Government for EUref2.

Hunt however would be unable to win a majority and Labour would be the largest party but with Farage holding the balance of power and demanding No Deal as his price given he opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright or else Hunt forced to back EUref2 and a Corbyn minority government in order to keep out Farage

What a silly game putting these polls into seat calculators. If its a brexit GE the amount of vote swapping would be key, and it would be massive.

Fair enough, so let's stick to reminding ourselves that in the only poll so far to ask the question, the Conservatives came from 23% under May to poll 37% with Johnson as leader but only 25% with Hunt. HYUFD is quite entitled to assert that Johnson "at least has a chance of a majority" given such polling and that Hunt clearly has no such chance, "chance" being the key word here. I also agree with you that the amount of vote swapping amongst the Remain side (including Labour) "will be key" to resolving that. However, with both Labour and the LDs polling at similar levels, tthe absence of any national agreement between Labour, the LDs and the Greens will dampen down the effect of tactical voting as will uncertainty over the question of where such tactical votes should be best cast. All that stands in contrast to 2017.

Ashcroft asks the same question

Sandpit said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

But to return to my question - why is it nobody has ever been able to tell me how many times the EU has taken a decision which the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed ?

Perhaps because there has never been such an event ?

In which case the only 'joint decision making' in the EU is the joint decision making between France and Germany.

And that would explain the Foreign Office fantasies that they will at some always imminent point break apart the France-Germany alliance in the UK.

The 'France will need an ally against Germany' and 'Germany will need an ally against France' predictions we have heard since the Berlin Wall fell.

Because to return to your question again about when did the EU take a decision that the UK supported and which France and Germany opposed, the EU doesn't work like that. It works on consensus. The UK wanted the Single Market and expansion; France and Germany wanted other things. The UK conceded on stuff it didn't want, by opt out if necessary, to get the stuff it did want. France and Germany did the same.

Outside there is no consensus. We will do what we are required, with some informal but very limited influence, probably backed up by billions of cash.

Revealing isn't it that the example always given of British influence in the EU is the single market.

Something which was discussed back in the 1980s and given the UK's cumulative trade deficit within the single market perhaps not the best idea in retrospect.

As to expansion of the EU wasn't the UK strategy to have a 'broader' EU rather than a 'deeper' EU and the result was an EU both broader and deeper.

And as I remember Germany was rather keen on the single market and both France and Germany were keen on EU expansion into their traditional areas on interest.

Another UK demand is not having the EU army that Germany wanted. There are more examples.

In any case the point is not about UK influence on the EU; it's about UK influence on decisions that affect the UK. We won't formally have influence after we leave. Turning up to the meetings where the decisions affecting us are made and having a vote are the important differences.

Sitting in the meetings where the decisions are made is irrelevant, when the Eurozone members who have an absolute majority had another meeting the day before and decided which way to vote en bloc.

Does that happen?

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Zephyr said:

HYUFD said:

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement, given Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, even if the likeliest outcome is Tories largest party under Boris but a Labour, LD and SNP Government for EUref2.

Hunt however would be unable to win a majority and Labour would be the largest party but with Farage holding the balance of power and demanding No Deal as his price given he opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright or else Hunt forced to back EUref2 and a Corbyn minority government in order to keep out Farage

What a silly game putting these polls into seat calculators. If its a brexit GE the amount of vote swapping would be key, and it would be massive.

Fair enough, so let's stick to reminding ourselves that in the only poll so far to ask the question, the Conservatives came from 23% under May to poll 37% with Johnson as leader but only 25% with Hunt. HYUFD is quite entitled to assert that Johnson "at least has a chance of a majority" given such polling and that Hunt clearly has no such chance, "chance" being the key word here. I also agree with you that the amount of vote swapping amongst the Remain side (including Labour) "will be key" to resolving that. However, with both Labour and the LDs polling at similar levels, tthe absence of any national agreement between Labour, the LDs and the Greens will dampen down the effect of tactical voting as will uncertainty over the question of where such tactical votes should be best cast. All that stands in contrast to 2017.

Exactly and Ashcroft confirms today too most Leavers would vote Tory under Boris but Brexit Party under Hunt with the Remain vote largely divided between Labour and the LDs.

That means only Boris has a chance, again as you correctly state a chance not a certainty, of delivering a Tory majority with the Leave vote largely united behind the Tories and the Remain vote divided between the LDs and Corbyn Labour

Split between Labour, LibDems - and the Greens too. I wonder how many seats the Greens will stand aside for the LibDems in a General?

Yes, the Greens get 22.7% of Remainers v Boris and 22.1% of Remainers v Hunt

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1147819379058466818

IanB2 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Zephyr said:

HYUFD said:

Boris at least has a chance of a majority on that poll and thus passing the Withdrawal Agreement, given Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, even if the likeliest outcome is Tories largest party under Boris but a Labour, LD and SNP Government for EUref2.

Hunt however would be unable to win a majority and Labour would be the largest party but with Farage holding the balance of power and demanding No Deal as his price given he opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright or else Hunt forced to back EUref2 and a Corbyn minority government in order to keep out Farage

What a silly game putting these polls into seat calculators. If its a brexit GE the amount of vote swapping would be key, and it would be massive.

Fair enough, so let's stick to reminding ourselves that in the only poll so far to ask the question, the Conservatives came from 23% under May to poll 37% with Johnson as leader but only 25% with Hunt. HYUFD is quite entitled to assert that Johnson "at least has a chance of a majority" given such polling and that Hunt clearly has no such chance, "chance" being the key word here. I also agree with you that the amount of vote swapping amongst the Remain side (including Labour) "will be key" to resolving that. However, with both Labour and the LDs polling at similar levels, tthe absence of any national agreement between Labour, the LDs and the Greens will dampen down the effect of tactical voting as will uncertainty over the question of where such tactical votes should be best cast. All that stands in contrast to 2017.

Ashcroft asks the same question

Yes and Ashcroft's poll today has the Tories on 24.5% under Boris with Labour second on 20.7% and the LDs on 19.6% and the Brexit Party down to 16.4% but the Tories only on 22% under Hunt with the Brexit Party second on 20.5% followed by Labour on 19.9% and the LDs on 18.3%.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Conservative-Leadership-Survey-Results-Summary-July-2019-1.pdf

alex. said:

3. There was something very iffy about the poll and its origins (The Daily Telegraph). ComRes may themselves be respectable as a pollster, but it is well know that the commissioners of polls can go a long way towards influencing their outcomes if they so wish (especially outside of the standard VI polling where the pollsters have a lot more control over the basic methodology). Oh and the fact that no other poll on the subject has come close to replicating its results.

The methodology was to follow the standard VI question with the question
"As you may know, the Conservative Party is selecting a new leader. How would you most likely vote in a General Election, if each of these candidates were to become Conservative Party leader?"

If you consider that pretty innocuous wording distorted the result in favour of Johnson and against the likes of Stewart, then I think you are wrong. Please explain what in the wording you think caused that bias and how you would have worded the poll differently to avoid it. It is more plausible that the only influence of the Telegraph was to ensure that an unbiased supplementary question was asked in the expectation it would generate a result that assisted their preferred candidate. No other recent poll has asked about VI under different Conservative leadership scenarios, so of course the results have not been replicated.

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters

The way you dismiss fellow conservative members is a disgrace

Surely you have realised by now as long as the entity called "The Conservative Party" wins HUYFD doesn't care what it stands for or what it does or who leads it. It's like football tribalism at it's worst.

I said a while ago that if the polls showed the Conservatives would gain a couple of points if they declared war on the rest of Europe he would be on here explaining why it would be a really good idea.

No, it is simply a statement of the obvious that the vast majority of Tory voters and members now want to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and if some on here would rather Stop Brexit than deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st then they are better off in the LDs with fellow Stop Brexit Remainers rather than endlessly whinging and complaining in the Tory Party

Well of course, all the others have already abandoned them.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

alex. said:

3. There was something very iffy about the poll and its origins (The Daily Telegraph). ComRes may themselves be respectable as a pollster, but it is well know that the commissioners of polls can go a long way towards influencing their outcomes if they so wish (especially outside of the standard VI polling where the pollsters have a lot more control over the basic methodology). Oh and the fact that no other poll on the subject has come close to replicating its results.

The methodology was to follow the standard VI question with the question
"As you may know, the Conservative Party is selecting a new leader. How would you most likely vote in a General Election, if each of these candidates were to become Conservative Party leader?"

If you consider that pretty innocuous wording distorted the result in favour of Johnson and against the likes of Stewart, then I think you are wrong. Please explain what in the wording you think caused that bias and how you would have worded the poll differently to avoid it. It is more plausible that the only influence of the Telegraph was to ensure that an unbiased supplementary question was asked in the expectation it would generate a result that assisted their preferred candidate. No other recent poll has asked about VI under different Conservative leadership scenarios, so of course the results have not been replicated.

There's aspects of methodology other than the question wording though, right?

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters

The way you dismiss fellow conservative members is a disgrace

Surely you have realised by now as long as the entity called "The Conservative Party" wins HUYFD doesn't care what it stands for or what it does or who leads it. It's like football tribalism at it's worst.

I said a while ago that if the polls showed the Conservatives would gain a couple of points if they declared war on the rest of Europe he would be on here explaining why it would be a really good idea.

No, it is simply a statement of the obvious that the vast majority of Tory voters and members now want to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and if some on here would rather Stop Brexit than deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st then they are better off in the LDs with fellow Stop Brexit Remainers rather than endlessly whinging and complaining in the Tory Party

Well of course, all the others have already abandoned them.

More 2017 Tories have gone to the Brexit Party than the LDs

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters

The way you dismiss fellow conservative members is a disgrace

Surely you have realised by now as long as the entity called "The Conservative Party" wins HUYFD doesn't care what it stands for or what it does or who leads it. It's like football tribalism at it's worst.

I said a while ago that if the polls showed the Conservatives would gain a couple of points if they declared war on the rest of Europe he would be on here explaining why it would be a really good idea.

No, it is simply a statement of the obvious that the vast majority of Tory voters and members now want to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and if some on here would rather Stop Brexit than deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st then they are better off in the LDs with fellow Stop Brexit Remainers rather than endlessly whinging and complaining in the Tory Party

Well of course, all the others have already abandoned them.

More 2017 Tories have gone to the Brexit Party than the LDs

Where do you think 2015 Tories are now?

rottenborough said:

Will Hutton reporting whispers that McDonnell is "in the market" for a quick leadership challenge, as long as the party remains led by the left.

Time to top up our leader after Corbyn bets?

The Jezziah will not be happy......

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrsB said:

Once Johnson has been PM for a few weeks I confidently expect the predictions of huge Con gains at a GE to disappear.
Normally that would mean huge Lab gains would be predicted. I don't think that will happen either.
So could we see predictions of a Lib Dem government instead?

I have been a Conservative Party member for over 20 years. I will not vote Conservative while we have a clown for leader. Until he is replaced by someone who is actually qualified to do such an important job I will vote LD. Whether that means we will have a LD government I would doubt, but I think there are a lot of people like me.

Fine, for every 1 of you Boris will win back 2 or 3 Brexit Party voters

The way you dismiss fellow conservative members is a disgrace

Surely you have realised by now as long as the entity called "The Conservative Party" wins HUYFD doesn't care what it stands for or what it does or who leads it. It's like football tribalism at it's worst.

I said a while ago that if the polls showed the Conservatives would gain a couple of points if they declared war on the rest of Europe he would be on here explaining why it would be a really good idea.

No, it is simply a statement of the obvious that the vast majority of Tory voters and members now want to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and if some on here would rather Stop Brexit than deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st then they are better off in the LDs with fellow Stop Brexit Remainers rather than endlessly whinging and complaining in the Tory Party

Well of course, all the others have already abandoned them.

More 2017 Tories have gone to the Brexit Party than the LDs

Where do you think 2015 Tories are now?

The Tories got 37% in 2015, 42% in 2017.

Plus even 2015 Tories voted 58% Leave and only 42% Remain

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1147819379058466818

It would be great is some people actually do go to prison regarding such stories.

It would be an inducement for those employed to do their jobs instead of posturing and scheming.

IanB2 said:

Derbyshire seems to be taking over from Lincs as BXP central

Based on what? Just curious.