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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday morning

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    In the reality based world, our trade deficit has only grown since Brexit, despite devaluation.

    I notice you don't provide any numbers to back that claim up.

    But in the reality based world the numbers exist and matter.

    The UK's trade balance as a percentage of GDP was:

    2013 -1.6%
    2014 -1.6%
    2015 -1.4%
    2016 -1.6%
    2017 -1.2%
    2018 -1.5%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/d28l/pnbp

    Or on the wider current account balance as a percentage of GDP:

    2013 -5.1%
    2014 -4.9%
    2015 -4.9%
    2016 -5.2%
    2017 -3.3%
    2018 -3.9%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/aa6h/ukea

    So a boost to UK exports followed by increased consumption of imports leading to little change on the trade deficit but a bigger reduction in the current account deficit albeit also fading.
    After the mini diplet in 2017, the goods deficit is trending significantly higher in 2019.
    Yes the UK's imports have increased to match the increase in exports we had.

    Now what would have happened if we hadn't had a boost in exports ?

    How much larger would the trade deficit be now ?

    Perhaps you think people in this country would be buying fewer imports ?

    With a trillion quid of government borrowing pumping through the UK economy I don't see that happening.

    Or perhaps you think government would have done something to clamp down on consumption in this country ?

    With our politicians that seems exceedingly unlikely.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    In the reality based world, our trade deficit has only grown since Brexit, despite devaluation.

    I notice you don't provide any numbers to back that claim up.

    But in the reality based world the numbers exist and matter.

    The UK's trade balance as a percentage of GDP was:

    2013 -1.6%
    2014 -1.6%
    2015 -1.4%
    2016 -1.6%
    2017 -1.2%
    2018 -1.5%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/d28l/pnbp

    Or on the wider current account balance as a percentage of GDP:

    2013 -5.1%
    2014 -4.9%
    2015 -4.9%
    2016 -5.2%
    2017 -3.3%
    2018 -3.9%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/aa6h/ukea

    So a boost to UK exports followed by increased consumption of imports leading to little change on the trade deficit but a bigger reduction in the current account deficit albeit also fading.
    After the mini diplet in 2017, the goods deficit is trending significantly higher in 2019.
    Yes the UK's imports have increased to match the increase in exports we had.

    Now what would have happened if we hadn't had a boost in exports ?

    How much larger would the trade deficit be now ?

    Perhaps you think people in this country would be buying fewer imports ?

    With a trillion quid of government borrowing pumping through the UK economy I don't see that happening.

    Or perhaps you think government would have done something to clamp down on consumption in this country ?

    With our politicians that seems exceedingly unlikely.
    So you accept you were wrong.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting poll - it appears his recent travails have not much impacted Biden’s appeal versus Trump:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/451859-trump-trails-biden-by-10-points-in-new-poll

    Notable that the ‘generic Democrat whom you regard as a socialist’ is losing to Trump.

    A 6-point margin compared with, say, Warren, isn't bad given that socialism has an recent years been seen in the US as thoroughly weird, like flat earthism. That's a view held by some here, of course, but it's unremarkable to say one's a socialist, whereas in the US it has been really unusual for decades.
    I think that you are falling behind the times. 40% of Americans prefer Socialism over Capitalism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios

    America is such a diverse place that it is impossible to hate it entirely. There are good people there amongst the numpties.
    +1. I lived there for a while. It is home to some of the best people in the world and also some of the worst. They just do everything with more umph than we do. I loved their can do attitude and the sense of endless possibility but found their lack of empathy for each other disconcerting. Loved the place but ended up happy to come home to our familiar, frustrated little island. Although both countries seem to have gone a bit nuts recently.
    Should add - nothing made me feel more European than living in America. People who think Brexit means having a better relationship with the US are in for the rudest of all awakenings.
    Yes, I lived in the USA for 5 years as a teenager. The common language and familiarity of US television and film conceals a chasm of difference on cultural values.
    We are closer to Canada, New Zealand and Australia than we are to either continental Europe or the USA culturally and we share the same Head of State
    I went to university in Canada, and even 30 years ago that was deluded bollocks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    In the reality based world, our trade deficit has only grown since Brexit, despite devaluation.

    I notice you don't provide any numbers to back that claim up.

    But in the reality based world the numbers exist and matter.

    The UK's trade balance as a percentage of GDP was:

    2013 -1.6%
    2014 -1.6%
    2015 -1.4%
    2016 -1.6%
    2017 -1.2%
    2018 -1.5%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/d28l/pnbp

    Or on the wider current account balance as a percentage of GDP:

    2013 -5.1%
    2014 -4.9%
    2015 -4.9%
    2016 -5.2%
    2017 -3.3%
    2018 -3.9%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/aa6h/ukea

    So a boost to UK exports followed by increased consumption of imports leading to little change on the trade deficit but a bigger reduction in the current account deficit albeit also fading.
    After the mini diplet in 2017, the goods deficit is trending significantly higher in 2019.
    Yes the UK's imports have increased to match the increase in exports we had.

    Now what would have happened if we hadn't had a boost in exports ?

    How much larger would the trade deficit be now ?

    Perhaps you think people in this country would be buying fewer imports ?

    With a trillion quid of government borrowing pumping through the UK economy I don't see that happening.

    Or perhaps you think government would have done something to clamp down on consumption in this country ?

    With our politicians that seems exceedingly unlikely.
    So you accept you were wrong.
    No, the data shows I am right.

    Next time I suggest you check it before you make incorrect claims.

    I'd also suggest you think a bit more about the issue instead of wallowing in your own prejudices.

    Thinking can be liberating, you might even discover that the reality based world comes in shades of grey rather than only black and white.
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