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Perhaps more even tempered than the last ?
Going to the country before Brexit will be dreadful.
Getting Brexit done without going to the country seems to be impossible.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
Laying 2022 at 4.4 is however an excellent bet
I think a comparative situation is 1990-1991, when John Major replaced a very unpopular Margret Thatcher. The economy was sliding into recession, the poll tax was causing social rebellion and things were focussed on international relations. The Tories could have gone for an election in 1991 in the wake of the first gulf war. Britain had after all been a significant contributor of military assets, a force we no longer have in the numbers we had then! No election happened then but the Tories did have a substantial parliamentry majority, which they dont have now.
Elections and specifically General elections take months to organise, I dont see the activity in fundraising, political contact and the like taking place at the moment. So I dont think a GE will happen this year.
https://twitter.com/meredithllee/status/1146869167502561283
Not much bothered about Morris dancers but what I am bothered about is the impact on people and businesses who have planned stuff, like weddings.
Either the government should make both the Friday and the Monday holidays, or they should reverse the change.
Dickheads, whoever came up with this wheeze.
I think the election will be called on 5th September when Parliament returns from recess.
Labour Party members must know in their heart of hearts that they have sunk so low in the polls that a new, probably far more moderate leader is what is required to virtually gauarantee their return to office, be it this year, next year or whenever.
Should the likes of, say, Keir Starmer win the big prize, it's not difficult to envisage Labour's support leaping into the 30%+ range in no time at all.
Boris' problem in the short term, even with Corbyn still in place, is that the Tories are in severe danger of finishing with a voting support level in the low 20% range, thereby finding themselves forced out of office by a Labour/LibDem/SNP coalition.
Btw with a 2019 GE looking increasingly likely, does anyone agree with me that Ladbrokes' odds of 1.75 (3/4 in old money) on there NOT being an overall majority, looks like stonking good value?
Oh!
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/renewable-us-grid-for-4-5-trillion#gs.mwo7uu
(And that’s assuming no improvement on today’s technology, which is exceedingly pessimistic.)
Spread over 10 years, that’s affordable; over 20 years, relatively cheap.
(The US spends over 3% of GDP annually on defence.)
Also interesting is that is that it would be around 10% cheaper if an element of nuclear was retained - even though direct generation costs of nuclear are
quite a bit more than renewables.
In fact you begin to see how Grayling has lasted so long.
That would be the worst senior Cabinet line up in history.
Given they’re the pro Remain party it would look ridiculous if they said no if that condition was met.
In all seriousness, I cannot stand all these promises to unite the country, while the plans in question definitely will not unite it. Indeed, on the critical issue that unity is not even a reasonable expectation. Boris is certainly not alone in it, but the media cheerleaders act like someone promising to unite the country is such a wonderful and fresh thing to say, and that their promising it has any bearing on whether or not their can do it.
It's the 'just believe in X and it will happen' crap all over again.
One of the captions is 'Witness that last time we were one'
Poignant.
Most likely trigger for that would be a serious attempt to implement a No Deal Brexit on 31 Oct. So if one thinks that is on the cards (ie if one believes Boris Johnson) a bet on a GE in 2019 at better than evens is good value.
But one would then be in a position of making money if Boris Johnson is true to his word and losing it if he turns out to be a bullshitter.
That is not where I personally want to be.
Incredibly, her father is a maths professor at Leeds. What can he now think?
So, hoping Saj is the CoE. To hell with the money.
If only Hogarth were alive today...
The only solution now is to make both days holidays.
He’ll need some cover to appear inclusive , the arse licker Hancock is likely to be in . The top jobs are likely to go to the true believers in the no deal fantasy .
These are likely to include Patel , Mcvey , Raab .
Hunt will be given a post although a demotion from foreign secretary . I still think he’ll offer Amber Rudd a post , it will look good .
Hammond , Gauke , Clark are all likely to be fired . Stewart will resign . I hope he fires the clueless Karen Bradley .
Fox might stay on even though he questioned the great leaders Gatt 24 guff .
The UK will cheer if he fires Grayling .
Bozo realizes that just filling the whole cabinet with the no deal nutjobs will cause a lot of problems .
I suspect there will be a couple of shock appointments .
But I agree.
https://youtu.be/_DrsVhzbLzU
If it’s good enough for Windrush it’s good enough for Patel .
Merely a conjecture.
If (far more likely, given a 'Boris-deal' is a total fantasy) b) then the question is whether enough Tory MPs will no confidence to avoid no deal, in which case we have to ask the EU for an extension allowing for a 'Brexit' election.
Rather than wanting to recreate the Third Reich with Big Macs.
The trouble is, though, America had - arguably - its most articulate president in a generation, maybe two generations, in Obama. And he did fuck all, and was a significant disappointment. So Americans reached for a more radical and desperate solution.
PP: no
IH: so they would be dead
PP: no
IH: well they would be!
PP: the point is this about having a deterrent
Thick, vile or evil, you decide.
Answer is that this would never happen under a Labour government:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/jul/04/figures-reveal-english-schools-cant-afford-to-teach-five-days-a-week
DA: Let's talk about the real issues of crime which people are worried about. What people are worried about is the rise in violent crime.
NF: So how much would 10,000 police officers cost?
DA: Well, if we recruit the 10,000 policemen and women over a four-year period, we believe it will be about £300,000.
NF: £300,000 for 10,000 police officers? What are you paying them?
DA: No, I mean, sorry...
NF: How much will they cost?
DA They will cost, it will cost about, about £80 million.
NF: About £80 million? How do you get to that figure?
DA: We get to that figure because we anticipate recruiting 25,000 extra police officers a year at least over a period of four years. And we are looking at both what average police wages are generally but also specifically police wages in London.
NF: And the £80 million is the figure we use?
DA: Yeah, yeah.
NF: But I don't understand. If you divide £80 million by 10,000, you get £8,000. Is that what you are going to pay these policemen and women?
DA: No, we are talking about a process over four years.
NF: I don't understand. What is he or she going to get? Eighty million divided by 10,000 equals 8,000. What are these police officers going to be paid?
DA: We will be paying them the average...
NF: Has this been thought through?
DA: Of course it's been thought through.
NF: Where are the figures?
DA: The figures are that the additional cost in year one, when we anticipate recruiting about 250,000 policemen, will be £64.3 million.
NF: 250,000 policemen?
DA: And women.
NF: So you are getting more than 10,000. You're recruiting 250,000?
DA: No, we are recruiting two thousand - and two hundred and fifty."
NF: So where did 250,000 come from?
DA: I think you said that, not me.
NF: I can assure you you said that, because I wrote it down.
As Blair and Brown taught what used to be the Labour party until a reverse take over by the likes of Andrew Murry and the communists.
A vague memory I have from 25 years ago is that Denmark is the only country that has gone from no capital punishment > capital punishment > no capital punishment
I believe the crime rate actually went *up* during the capital punishment phase
FFS. Whataboutery in the extreme.
I expect much better from you! Abbott is hopeless, but it was a maths cock up.
Patel is legitimising state-killing of innocent people, or would be, if she knew what she was talking about.
I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt. She’s pig thick, not evil. Suspect you are regretting going out to bat for her.
* Presumably a deterrent from being Irish and living in the Birmingham area.
Personally, I am divided on capital punishment. The state is happy to bomb innocents in foreign parts, women and children at weddings, so I do wonder at our liberal hand wringing when it comes to the state taking GUILTY lives in our own land, It feels hypocritical. Maybe even racist.
That said I am not in favour of the death penalty, on the whole. It coarsens society. And life meaning life - until you die - is also a grave and severe deterrent, without the horror of wrongful state murder.